Worldwide, people are producing more food than ever, but most of that production is concentrated into only a handful of places. For example, fully one third of the world’s wheat and barley exports come from Ukraine and Russia. Across the globe, several major crop-growing regions, including some in the United States, are heading towards sharp drops in harvests as a result of climate change.
These forthcoming changes are not only bad news for farmers, but they are also bad news for everyone who eats. According to a new study published in the journal Nature, it is going to become harder and more expensive to feed a more crowded and hungrier world.
Specifically, under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, six key staple crops will see an 11.2% decline by the end of the century, compared to a world without warming. The largest drops won’t be in the poorer, more marginal farmlands, but rather in places that are major food producers. These are places like the US Midwest that has long benefited by having both good soil and ideal weather for raising crops like corn and soy.
When the weather is not ideal, it can drastically reduce agricultural productivity. Extreme weather in many places has already damaged crops. Flooding has destroyed rice in Tajikistan, cucumbers in Spain, and bananas in Australia. Severe storms in the US this spring caused millions of dollars’ worth of damage to crops.
As the climate changes, rising average temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are likely to diminish yields and extreme weather events like droughts and floods could wipe out harvests more often. As climate change intensifies, agriculture is the most weather-affected sector of the economy.
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How climate change will worsen hunger
Photo, posted may 20, 2011, courtesy of Lance Cheung / USDA via Flickr.
Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio
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