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Once In A Lifetime Floods And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Superstorm Sandy was the deadliest hurricane of 2012 and one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit the United States.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Superstorm Sandy caused an estimated $74.1 billion dollars in damages.  That figure made it the fourth-costliest storm in U.S. history, trailing only Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and hurricanes Harvey and Maria in 2017.  Superstorm Sandy affected 24 states and all of the eastern seaboard.  

New York was one of the states pummeled by Superstorm Sandy.  The storm brought flood-levels to the region that had not been seen in generations.  But according to a new study published in the journal Climatic Change, those flood levels could become much more common. 

Researchers at Stevens Institute of Technology have found that 100-year and 500-year flood levels could become regular occurrences by the end of the century for the thousands of homes surrounding Jamaica Bay, NY.  The researchers say climate change is the culprit.  

Using anticipated greenhouse gas concentration levels, the research team created simulations to find the probability of different flood levels being reached by the end of the century.  The researchers found that the historical 100-year flood level would become a one-year flood level by the year 2100.  500-year floods, like Superstorm Sandy, would become a four-year flood level by the end of the century. 

While this particular study is specific to Jamaica Bay, it does serve as an example of just how severe and costly the consequences of climate change will be.   

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Once in a lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

 

Fall Safety Tips | Earth Wise

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The fall season has its own weather-related hazards, such as raging wildfires across the West and a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic.  There might even be snow in some places.  The National Weather Service issued a set of four broad safety tips for being prepared for the dangers of fall weather.

With regard to wildfires, it is important for smokers to properly discard cigarettes, for people to avoid activities with open flames or sparks, and to use fire-resistant landscaping around our homes. The Weather Service issues Red Flag Warnings when conditions are ripe for wildfires.

In this busy hurricane season, even people who don’t live in hurricane surge evacuation areas need to know their home’s vulnerability to damage from high winds and inland flooding.  People should have a plan that includes an emergency kit and a safe place to shelter should they need to evacuate.

It is important to have a plan in case strong winds pose a threat.  When preparing for an extreme wind event, secure objects that can be tossed or rolled, trim trees near homes, and have a plan in case of an extended power failure.  Strong winds can even happen on a clear day.

The key advice in case you encounter flood waters is “turn around, don’t drown.”  It is never safe to walk or drive into a flooded roadway.  It is best to delay travel until roads are clear.

Fall can be the most beautiful season of the year, but it also has its dangers.  Following advice such as that provided by the Weather Service is prudent and potentially life-saving.

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Four safety tips for fall hazards: Small actions can have big impacts

Photo, posted October 30, 2014, courtesy of Virginia State Parks via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saharan Dust And The Amazon | Earth Wise

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We talk about globalization primarily in the context of how human activities connect up distant parts of the world.  But there are natural processes that are global in scope as well.  One of these is the transportation of mineral-rich dust from the Sahara Desert in North Africa to the Amazon Basin in South America.

Every year, this dust is lifted into the atmosphere by winds and carried on a 5,000-mile journey across the North Atlantic.  It turns out that this dust plays a critical role in the Amazon basin ecosystem.  The Amazon Basin in turn plays a major role in global climate.  Its trees and plants remove huge quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and stores the carbon in vegetation.

The transcontinental journey of dust is important because of what is in the dust.  The dust picked up from ancient lake beds in Chad comes from rock minerals formed by dead microorganisms and is loaded with phosphorus.  Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for plant growth and is in short supply in Amazonian soils.  Local nutrients like phosphorus in the Amazon mostly come from fallen, decomposing leaves and organic matter but tend to be washed away by rainfall into streams and rivers. 

Studies have shown that the phosphorus that reaches Amazon soils from Saharan dust is essential to replace the amounts lost to rain and flooding.

Recent research has found that the quantities of dust transported to South America are inversely linked to rainfall in North Africa and is likely to be affected by climate change.  Changes in dust transport could affect plant growth in the Amazon and the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere.  The forces that affect the climate are truly global in nature.

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Study quantifies Saharan dust reaching Amazon

Photo, posted April 19, 2011, courtesy of CIAT via Flickr. Photo credit: ©2011CIAT/NeilPalmer.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Changing Climate Is Changing Insurance

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As the climate changes, wildfires get bigger and more destructive and hurricanes and powerful storms are more frequent and damaging.  In places where these things are occurring, it is getting harder and more expensive for many homeowners to get insurance.  The affordability of home insurance in the face of climate change has become a huge issue in many states.

In California, the number of homeowners who got non-renewal notices from their insurance companies rose by 6% between 2017 and 2018.  In areas directly affected by wildfires between 2015 and 2017, that number jumped by 10%. Similar things have happened in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, where hurricanes and flooding have caused extensive damage.  Because of this, many homeowners have been forced to turn to bare-bone plans such as the California Fair Access to Insurance Plan, which can cost two or three times as much as normal insurance policies.

According to a 2019 survey of insurance companies, more than half of insurance regulators said that climate change was likely to have a high impact or an extremely high impact on the availability of insurance coverage and the assumptions used for underwriting.  In the past, governments have been able to mandate coverage in certain areas or even provide coverage themselves in some cases.  As the occurrence of climate-related damage becomes increasingly frequent, homeowners have to face up to a grim reality.

The challenges of dealing with wildfires, floods, powerful storms, and the like are significant enough for people who live in high-risk areas.  Increasingly, home insurance in these places is becoming much more expensive, harder to find, and is worth less.

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As Climate Impacts Worsen, Homeowners Struggle to Find Affordable Insurance

Photo, posted September 1, 2020, courtesy of The National Guard via Flickr.

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Land Use Change And Flooding | Earth Wise

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Land use change refers to the conversion of a piece of land’s use by humans from one purpose to another. Land use change is commonly associated with biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions.  But how does land use change impact water cycles? 

According to researchers from the University of Göttingen in Germany, IPB University, and BMKG (both in Indonesia), the expansion of monocultures, such as rubber and oil palm plantations, leads to more frequent and more severe flooding.  The researchers explain the increase in flooding “with a complex interplay of ecohydrological and social processes, including soil degradation in monocultures, the expansion of oil palm plantations into wetlands, and the construction of flood protection dams.” 

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Ecology & Society, the research team interviewed nearly 100 Indonesian farmers, villagers, and decision-makers in Sumatra.  The team supplemented its research with data on precipitation, river and groundwater levels, soil properties, and regional mapping. 

During large-scale land use change – like plantation expansions – newly-compacted soil causes rainwater to runoff as opposed to being absorbed.  As more plantations are established in floodplains, the owners try to control flooding on their land by building barriers.  But these dams often lead to increased flooding on neighboring lands.  This understandably triggers social tensions between other farmers and plantation owners.     

In order to reduce the negative impact of land use change on the water cycle, the research team suggests soil protection and improved planning – especially in floodplains – would be a good place to start.  

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Land use change leads to increased flooding in Indonesia

Photo, posted October 8, 2018, courtesy of Artem Beliaikin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Dam Failures Likely | Earth Wise

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Two dams in Central Michigan were breached by rain-swollen floodwaters in May and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents and prompted officials to warn of life-threatening danger from a flooded chemical complex and a toxic waste cleanup site.  Engineers say that most dams in the U.S. were designed many decades ago – in some cases, a century ago – and are not suited to a warming world with ever stronger storms.

The dams in Michigan gave way for the same reason behind most dam failures:  they were overwhelmed by water, in this case by five inches of rain falling over two days after earlier storms had saturated the ground and swollen rivers.

It can’t be proven whether this specific set of events was triggered by climate change, but global warming is definitely causing some regions to become wetter and is increasing the frequency of extreme storms.  And these trends are expected to continue as the world continues to warm.

All of this puts more of the 91,500 dams in the U.S. at greater risk of failing.  The American Society of Civil Engineers, in its latest report card on infrastructure issued in 2017, gave the nation’s dams a “D” grade.

Historically, dams have been designed based on past weather history to predict the magnitude of the maximum potential flood that a dam would have to withstand.  There was no expectation that future weather patterns might be very different.  Infrastructure designers will clearly need to change their practices.

For existing dams, operational changes might be called for, such as reducing water levels in anticipation of more extreme storms.  Upgrades might include changing spillway designs to accommodate larger water volumes over a longer time period.

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‘Expect More’: Climate Change Raises Risk of Dam Failures

Photo courtesy of Eye in the Sky/Youtube.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Keeping Charleston Dry | Earth Wise

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Charleston, South Carolina is visited by millions of tourists each year.  The town is a glimpse into the past, showcasing antebellum mansions, row houses, historic African American churches and scenic harbor views from a Civil War-era promenade.

Charleston is also visited more and more by water from rising seas and increasingly powerful storms.  The city is essentially drowning in slow motion and may soon face an existential threat to its survival.

Charleston has a harbor and three rivers and water from all these sources leaks in at every bend and curve, fills streets, disrupts businesses, and rushes into homes during storms.  Million-dollar antebellum mansions, built on spongy marsh and old tidal creeks, flood repeatedly.

City officials have endorsed a plan by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to wall off the historic downtown with an 8-mile-long seawall that would cost nearly $2 billion.  The proposed barricade is just one of many proposed projects to build seawalls, surge gates, levees, and other barriers to defend U.S. coastal cities in an era of rising seas and climate-fueled floods and storms.  A proposed flood wall in Miami would cost federal taxpayers $8 billion.

Researchers generally agree that sea levels are likely to rise by at least 3 feet by the end of the century.  Some experts believe the rise will be much greater.  So, a key question is whether these barriers will actually keep out the water.  Critics of many of the proposed solutions contend that they are doomed to fail.

Flooding has caused nearly $1 trillion worth of damage along the East and Gulf coasts over the past 40 years.  And things are almost certain to get worse in Charleston and other coastal cities.

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Fortress Charleston: Will Walling Off the City Hold Back the Waters?

Photo, posted October 7, 2015, courtesy of Jeff Turner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Antarctica’s Hot Summer | Earth Wise

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The Southern Hemisphere’s recent summer brought drought, heatwaves and bush-fires that ravaged Australia.  At the same time, Antarctica experienced a summer of extreme weather.

In East Antarctica, the Casey research station in the Australian Antarctic Territory had its first heatwave event, recording extreme maximum and minimum temperatures over three consecutive days in January.  Record high temperatures were also reported at bases on the Antarctic Peninsula.

The Casey station recorded a record high maximum temperature of 49 degrees Fahrenheit and a record overnight low of 36 degrees.  In February, Brazilian scientists reported a high temperature of 69 degrees at Marambio, an all-time record for Antarctica.

Ecologists say that the hot summer would most likely lead to long-term disruption of local populations, communities, and the broader ecosystem.  That disruption could be both positive and negative.

Most life in Antarctica exists in small ice-free oases and depends on melting snow and ice for a water supply.  Melt water from the warming temperatures will lead to increased growth and reproduction of mosses, lichens, microbes and invertebrates.

However, excessive flooding can dislodge plants and alter the composition of communities of invertebrates and microbial mats. If the ice completely melts early in the season, then ecosystems will suffer drought for the rest of the season.

Extreme events often have impacts for years after the event.  There will be long-term studies of the areas affected by the recent Antarctic heat wave. Such extreme events associated with global climate change are predicted to increase in frequency and impact, and even the most remote areas of the planet are not immune to them.

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Antarctica’s summer of extreme heat

Photo, posted January 30, 2014, courtesy of Andreas Kambanis via Flickr

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Working Forest Buffers | Earth Wise

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More than 100,000 miles of U.S. rivers and streams are polluted by nitrogen and phosphorus, mostly from agricultural runoff.  In the past, forests grew naturally alongside these waterways and helped stabilize stream banks and decrease flooding while trapping and filtering pollutants.  But most of these forests have been cut down to make way for towns, cities, livestock, and crops.

Farmers are reluctant to retire valuable farmland with non-productive buffer planting.  But in Pennsylvania, there is an innovative program that encourages farmers to plant cash crops in waterway buffer zones that can help stabilize stream banks and clean up the waterways.  These plantings are called working buffers.

Strips of streamside land are replanted with native floodplain trees and shrubs.  These are known as riparian forest buffers.  Pennsylvania has instituted a grant program under which farmers and landowners plant these buffers and turn a profit.

Many of these buffers have three zones.  A conventional forest buffer that can be just 15 feet wide is composed of native woodland and stabilizes the bank with tree roots and enhances wildlife habitat.  A second zone, some 20 feet wide, is planted with trees and shrubs that can tolerate periodic flooding.  Apart from slowing floodwater and taking up nutrients, this zone can provide profits by planting trees like black walnut, hazelnut, persimmon, and elderberry.  Only hand harvesting is allowed.  A third zone, adjacent to conventional crop, can contain blueberries, raspberries, and decorative woody florals.

How many farmers can be enticed to create these riparian buffers remains to be seen, but they do represent a way to help farmers to reduce pollution and turn a profit along the way.

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A Movement Grows to Help Farmers Reduce Pollution and Turn a Profit

Photo, posted March 19, 2010, courtesy of the USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coastal Plants And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Rising sea levels and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are leaving observable effects on beaches, cliffs, and coastal infrastructures all around the world.  But a new study suggests that the impact of climate change on coastal plant communities needs more attention. 

According to research recently published in the journal Annals of Botany, coastal plants are a critical element of global sea defense.  But coastal plants are increasingly under threat from flooding, erosion, and other human-induced effects of climate change.  Habitats like salt marshes, mangrove forests, sand dunes, and kelp beds make important contributions  to coastal protection.

The research was led by scientists from the University of Plymouth, in conjunction with researchers at Utrecht University and Manchester Metropolitan University.

The study follows a recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found that anthropogenic climate change poses a severe threat to estuaries and coastal ecosystems.  

Conservative estimates of the capital investments needed to combat rising seas and intensifying storms run into the hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming decades.  However, coastal vegetation could offer a dynamic, natural, and relatively low-cost defense strategy at a fraction of the cost when compared with the cost of so-called hard defenses like concrete walls and barriers. 

According to the research team, identifying the key species and habitats for coastal defense and how coasts can be protected and promoted is critical.  More long-term monitoring is also needed in order to better understand and predict where and how storms and other effects of climate change will impact coastal ecosystems. 

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The gathering storm: optimizing management of coastal ecosystems in the face of a climate-driven threat

Losing coastal plant communities to climate change will weaken sea defences

Photo, posted September 14, 2018, courtesy of Dennis Jarvis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Record Low Ice In The Bering Sea | Earth Wise

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The Bering Sea is the area of the far northern Pacific Ocean that separates Alaska from Russia.  Sea ice in the Bering Sea shrank to its lowest levels in recorded history in 2018, an event with profound effects on northwest Alaska residents who depend on marine resources for food, cash, and culture.

The loss of ice is indicative of very rapid change in the entire northern Bering Sea ecosystem with ramifications for everyone in the region.  A new peer-reviewed study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society examined the details and consequences of the drastic changes in the Bering Sea.

The study found that the maximum daily Bering Sea ice was the lowest on record, and the widespread impacts of that fact include unprecedented weather effects, marine wildlife die-offs, and sightings of animals outside of their normal range.  Ecological changes included the first documented mass strandings of ice-associated seals, a redistribution of thermally sensitive fish, and a multispecies die-off of seabirds due to starvation.

Persistent and anomalous warm winter weather contributed to poor ice conditions that resulted in a fatal accident on an ice road and retreating and fractured sea ice led to ice-laden flooding that caused power outages and infrastructure damage.  In addition, there have been more than 50 reports of unusual events related to weather and marine wildlife.

The record-low sea ice is a consequence of the warming climate resulting in a warmer ocean, later arrival of sea ice, and more frequent storms than in the pre-industrial era.  These conditions are continuing to increase in occurrence.

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Record low level of Bering Sea ice causes profound, widespread impacts

Photo, posted April 7, 2014, courtesy of Allen Smith via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Rising Seas Will Erase Cities

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According to new research, climate-driven sea level rise could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought.  This sobering assessment means some of the world’s great coastal cities, including Bangkok, Shanghai, Mumbai, Basra, Alexandria, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be in big trouble.   

Scientists have always relied on land elevation data to determine the effects of sea level rise over large areas.  But standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings.  The authors of the paper developed a more accurate way to calculate land elevation by using artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and to correct for it.  The new findings revealed that 150 million people – three times more than previously thought – are now living on land that is projected to be below the high-tide line by the middle of this century. 

Eight Asian nations – China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan – account for about 70% of the people living on at-risk land. 

More than 20 million people in Vietnam, including much of Ho Chi Minh City, live on land that will be inundated by 2050.  In Thailand, more than 10% of its citizens, including much of Bangkok, currently live on land imperiled by projected sea level rise. 

This new research was produced by Climate Central, a New Jersey-based science organization, and was recently published in the journal Nature Communications. 

Sea level rise is clearly not just an environmental problem.  It’s a humanitarian crisis.

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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

Photo, posted December 18, 2009, courtesy of Misko via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Should New York Build A Storm Surge Barrier?

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In 2012, Superstorm Sandy’s storm surge combined with a high tide and buried lower Manhattan under 13 feet of water.  Across all five boroughs, subways, highways, and parking garages flooded and homes and businesses were destroyed.  Sandy caused nearly $20 billion in damages in New York City alone and more than 50 people died.

Ever since that disaster took place, there have been discussions about building storm surge barriers to protect the city from future storms.  Columbia University’s Sabin Center recently hosted an event to discuss the feasibility of building such barriers.

A study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers called the NY and NJ Harbor and Tributaries Focus Area Feasibility Study (HATS, for short) evaluates five options for coastal protection, which range in scope and price.

The most extensive option would involve constructing six miles of storm surge gates along with 26 miles of floodwalls, levees, and buried seawalls.  This option would cost $62 billion but could theoretically save $131 billion in damages and protect 95% of the study area.

The study also considers the side effects of building storm surge barriers.  These include environmental impacts such as effects on fish and wildlife, water quality, noise and vibrations, and changes in water flow.  While these effects can be quite serious and there is opposition from many quarters related to environmental impacts, others point out that there is really no other credible defense against storm surge.  The debate over whether or not to build storm surge barriers could easily last for many more years.

In the bigger picture, storm surge barriers do nothing to protect against rain-driven flooding, sea level rise, and tidal floods which continue to increase.

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Should New York Build a Storm Surge Barrier?

Photo, posted October 30, 2012, courtesy of Pamela Andrade via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Keeping Plants Plump

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The leading cause of crop failures worldwide is drought.  Ironically, the very close runner-up is flooding.  Facing a changing and increasingly erratic climate, farmers need all the help they can get in protecting their crops.

Researchers at the University of California, Riverside, have created a chemical to help plants hold onto water, which could stem the tide of massive annual crop losses from drought.  Details of the team’s work is described in a paper published in Science.

The chemical is called Opabactin, but is also known as “OP.” OP is gamer slang for overpowered, referring to the best character or weapon in a game.

OP mimics abscisic acid, or ABA, which is the natural hormone produced by plants in response to drought stress.  ABA slows a plant’s growth, so it doesn’t consume more water than is available and doesn’t wilt.  OP is 10-times stronger than ABA, which makes it a super hormone.  It works fast.  Within hours, there is a measurable improvement in the amount of water plants release.  Because it works so quickly, OP could give farmers more flexibility in how they deal with drought.   Plants can’t predict the future, but if, for example, farmers think there is a reasonable chance of drought, they could make decisions such as to apply OP to improve crop yields.

The research team is now trying to find a second chemical tool.  Whereas OP slows down plant growth, the team wants to find a molecule that will accelerate it.  Such a molecule could be useful in controlled environments such as indoor greenhouses.  There are times when you want to speed up growth and times when you want to slow it down.

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Game changer: New chemical keeps plants plump

Photo, posted June 7, 2013, courtesy of Bayer CropScience UK via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Which Cities To Save From The Changing Climate

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After several years of brutal flooding and hurricanes in the U.S., a distressing debate is emerging:  if there is not enough money available to protect every coastal community from the effects of global warming, how do we decide which ones to save first.

Recent research looked at the costs involved in providing basic storm-surge protection in the form of sea walls for all coastal cities with more than 25,000 residents.  That number was $42 billion.  Expanding the list to include communities smaller than 25,000 people would increase that cost to more than $400 billion.   Realistically, that is just not going to happen.

This particular study only looked at sea walls and no other methods for minimizing flood risk, such as moving homes and businesses away from the most flood-prone areas.   It also didn’t look at additional and costlier actions that will be required even with sea walls, such as revamping sewers, storm water, and drinking water infrastructure.

The facts are that many cities, especially small ones, will not be able to meet the costs facing them.  Those that can’t will depend on federal funding.  But even optimistically large proposals for federal infrastructure spending are likely to fall far short of the vast need.  Ultimately, the money will end up being spent where it can do the most good – even if it means that some places are left out.

But what criteria will be used to direct the money?  Economic value?  Historic significance?  Population?  Political influence?

This is a looming and massive issue whose chief obstacle may be that many officials refuse to acknowledge that it is happening.  This is the next wave of climate denial – denying the costs that we are all facing.

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With More Storms and Rising Seas, Which U.S. Cities Should Be Saved First?

Photo, posted October 31, 2018, courtesy of Patrick Kinney via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Cost Of Rising Seas

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Coastal cities in the United States are grappling with the need for extensive infrastructure projects to protect against rising seas and worsening storms.  The cost of these projects will be enormous, and it is unclear how to pay to them.

Boston has many neighborhoods in low-lying areas, and it is estimated that $2.4 billion will be needed to protect the city from flooding.  The city abandoned plans to build a harbor barrier that would have cost $6 to $12 billion because it was economically unfeasible.

Charleston, South Caroline needs $2 billion to reduce flooding that occurs regularly during high tides.  The Houston, Texas area needs $30 billion to provide protection against a 100-year flood.  Hurricane Harvey caused $125 billion in damages in Texas in 2017.  New York City is considering a $10 billion storm surge barrier and floodgates to shield parts of the city from rising waters.

Florida faces the greatest exposure to flooding with an estimated $76 billion in costs to address some of its problems.

At the federal level, multiple agencies represent potential funding sources, but none offer the kind of money required to address the need.  This places a heavy burden on state and local governments.  Various states have passed legislation related to shoreline resiliency and flood abatement, but relatively little funding has been approved.  Some bond measures have passed, but the totals are small compared with what is needed.

Educating people about the costs of not doing anything or not doing enough soon enough is essential.  As Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, not spending a large amount of money on resilience can result in having to spend a colossal amount of money on recovery.

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Who Will Pay for the Huge Costs of Holding Back Rising Seas?

Photo, posted December 26, 2013, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Rainy May

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If it seemed like May was unusually rainy, that’s because it was.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, May 2019 was the second-wettest month on record in the U.S. and contributed to a record-setting wet 12-month period.

The average precipitation for May was 4.41 inches, which is 1.5 inches above normal.  The wettest month in 125 years of record keeping was May 2015, which averaged just 0.03 inches more than this past May.

The period from June 2018 through May 2019 saw the wettest 12-month period on record in the U.S. with 37.68 inches, nearly 8 inches above average.  Increases in heavy rain events are among the most anticipated and well-documented impacts from climate change.

During May, the stormy pattern led to widespread flooding in the nation’s heartland.  In North Carolina, early-season extreme heat and a rapidly-developing drought was replaced by intense rainfall and flooding.

With all the clouds and rain around, the average May temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 59.5 degrees, which ranked in the bottom third of the 125-year record.

Extreme and unusual weather is becoming commonplace as the climate changes.  Duluth, Minnesota had 10.6 inches of snow on May 9, breaking an all-time record for May.  Denver had its snowiest May in 77 years.  But while the U.S. experienced somewhat cooler weather than usual, the planet as a whole continues to warm.  April 2019 was the second hottest April on record, dating back to 1880.  The Arctic region saw a record low for sea ice. 

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Rain-soaked U.S. had its 2nd-wettest month on record in May

Photo, posted May 20, 2013, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Insurance

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While there are still some people who remain dubious about the reality of climate change, insurance companies are not among them.  And, in fact, insurers are warning that climate change could make coverage for ordinary people unaffordable.

Munich Reinsurance, the world’s largest reinsurance firm, blamed global warming for $24 billion in losses from California’s recent wildfires.  Such costs could soon be widely felt as premium rises are already under discussion with insurance companies having clients in vulnerable parts of the state.

With the risk from wildfires, flooding, storms and hail increasing, the only sustainable option for the insurance industry is to adjust risk prices accordingly.  Ultimately, this may become a social issue.  Affordability of insurance is critical because if rates go up too much, many people on low and average incomes in some regions may no longer be able to buy insurance.

The great majority of California’s 20 worst forest fires since the 1930’s has occurred since the year 2000 driven by abnormally high summer temperatures and persistent drought. The reinsurance giant analyzed decades of data with climate models and concluded that the fires are likely driven by climate change.

It isn’t just wildfires.  Insurance premiums are also being adjusted in regions facing an increased threat from severe convective storms whose energy and severity are driven by global warming.  These include parts of Germany, Austria, France, southwest Italy, and the U.S. Midwest.

Linking extreme weather events to climate change is a bit like attributing the performance of a steroid-using athlete to drug use.  The connections are clearer in patterns than in individual disasters.  But the pattern these days is pretty clear.

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Climate Change Could Make Insurance Unaffordable for Most People

Photo, posted June 12, 2013, courtesy of Jeff Head via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Building For Climate Change

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The manifestations of climate change are creating increasingly familiar images:  floodwaters rising up house windows, charred buildings in the wake of wildfires, and homes and businesses demolished by storm winds. As these sorts of calamities become ever more common, changes to how houses are built are going to be necessary.

How can homes become more resilient against severe and unpredictable weather?

Research at Carlton University’s Sprott School of Business looks at this issue.

As an example, houses can be framed and finished in certain ways that help protect them from wind and flooding.  But such methods are currently only happening in the custom-build fringes of the housing sector.  Widespread adoption will require, at the minimum, significant changes to building codes.

Revising building codes is not an easy matter.  The codes themselves are highly technical and complex, and beyond that, the process Is often politicized.

Even simple things like hurricane ties, which are small pieces of hardware that prevent a roof from lifting during a severe wind are not now included in building codes.  Insurance companies support their use as inexpensive protection for houses.  But even though the overall cost is relatively minor, the building industry pushes back at the additional expense.

The need to reduce carbon emissions has created a push for sustainable housing.  But the increasingly erratic weather means that houses also need resilience and adaptation.  These features will inevitably add costs and incorporating them into building codes requires producing convincing business cases.

The U.S. experienced 394 natural catastrophe events last year costing $225 billion in damage.  Finding ways to make homes and businesses more resilient is not just a good idea; it is essential.

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How to Start Weather-Proofing Homes for Unpredictable Weather

Photo, posted June 12, 2008, courtesy of U.S. Geological Survey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

High-Tide Flooding And Pollution

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Global sea levels are steadily rising.  They are up 8 inches in the past century and now increasing at an average of 1.3 inches per decade.  As a result, the incidence of high-tide “sunny day” flooding is on the rise, especially along the U.S. East Coast.

Norfolk Virginia experienced fewer than 2 days of high-tide flooding a year in the 1960s; it had 14 in 2017.  Up and down the East Coast, flood days have increased by factors of 5 and more.

This has led to a form of pollution that hasn’t gathered much attention in the past:  when these floodwaters recede, they can carry debris, toxic pollutants and excess nutrients into rivers, bays, and oceans.

In the aftermath of high-tide flooding in Norfolk, Chesapeake Bay was littered with tipped-over garbage cans, tossed-away hamburgers, oil, dirty diapers, pet waste and all manner of other things.  Water that comes up on the landscape takes everything back into the river or ocean with it.

Analysis of tidal flooding along the Lafayette River in Norfolk indicated that just one morning of tidal flooding poured nearly the entire EPA annual allocation of nitrogen runoff for the river – nearly 2,000 pounds – into Chesapeake Bay.  The effects of excess nitrogen in the water are well-known and responsible for the toxic algal blooms that endanger aquatic life as well as human health.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, high-tide flooding frequency along the southeastern coast of the U.S. rose 160% since 2000.  With the expected continuing rises in sea level, NOAA projects that as many as 85 days of high-tide flooding will occur along the coast by the year 2050.  It’s a big problem.

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As High-Tide Flooding Worsens, More Pollution Is Washing to the Sea

Photo, posted September 20, 2018, courtesy of SC National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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