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Soaring coffee prices

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Wholesale coffee prices hit record highs in the midst of the Trump administration’s deportation and tariff dispute with Colombia.  But coffee prices have already been trading near 50-year highs for a while as a result of shortages related to extreme weather and increased global demand.

In recent years, repeated droughts and flooding have put pressure on the global supply of coffee.  These climate swings have caused prices to soar, much as they have for other staples like cocoa, olive oil, and orange juice.  All the while, the global demand for coffee has kept rising.

Coffee is one of the world’s most consumed beverages, but it can be grown only under very specific conditions, namely in misty, humid, and tropical climates, and in rich soil free of disease.   The United States imports nearly all of its coffee – there is only a small amount grown in Hawaii.  Otherwise, the US is the world’s largest coffee importer.  With a limited number of sources for the beans, global coffee prices are very susceptible to the effects of extreme weather.

More than half of the world’s coffee production comes from arabica beans, and Brazil is the largest exporter.  A severe drought there this summer devastated the harvest that typically runs from May to September.   In Vietnam, a severe drought followed by heavy rains harmed the world’s largest source of robusta, the second most popular coffee variety.

People tend to think of coffee as a commodity and not so much as an agricultural product, subject to the vagaries of weather and having prices that fluctuate accordingly.  The bottom line is that drinking coffee is likely to become a bigger strain on one’s own bottom line.

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Why Coffee Prices Are Soaring (Again)

Photo, posted October 13, 2023, courtesy of Pete via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Mangrove forests and rising seas

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Mangrove forests play a vital role in the health of our planet.  They protect coastal regions by acting as natural barriers against storms, erosion, and flooding. The intricate root systems of mangrove forests, which allow the trees to handle the daily rise and fall of tides, also serve as biodiversity hotspots, attracting fish and other species seeking food and shelter from predators.

But mangrove forests around the world are under increasing threat from deforestation, coastal development, and climate change.  In fact, according to a new study led by researchers from Northumbria University in England, the mangrove trees in the Maldives are actually drowning. 

The research, which was recently published in the journal Scientific Reports, found that sea levels around the Maldives rose more than 1.18 inches per year from 2017 to 2020.  An unusually intense climate phenomenon, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, occurred toward the end of this period, causing warmer sea surface temperatures and an increase in sea level in the Western Indian Ocean. 

While mangrove forests can naturally keep pace with gradually rising seas, this rate of sea level rise was too fast.  The rising sea level meant that seawater effectively flooded mangrove forests, causing many trees to lose their resilience and die.  Some islands in the Maldives have lost more than half of their mangrove cover since 2020.

Since mangrove forests also store massive amounts of carbon, the research team fears that the loss of mangrove forests could release large amounts of carbon, further accelerating climate change.

The researchers warn that the findings in the Maldives could have implications for coastal ecosystems around the world.

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“Drowning” mangrove forests in Maldives signal global coastal threat

Photo, posted February 11, 2015, courtesy of Alessandro Caproni via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Weather extremes for most people

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Scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway along with researchers at the University of Reading in the UK have analyzed how global warming can combine with normal variations in the weather to produce decades-long periods of very rapid changes involving both extreme temperatures and extreme amounts of rainfall.

Many parts of the world have already been experiencing record temperatures and extreme rainfall events.  Previously, most analyses of the changing climate have focused on the global mean and not on the impact of extreme weather on specific countries.

The study made use of large climate model simulations to show that if global emissions continue on the path they have been on, large parts of the tropics and subtropics – which are home to 70% of the world’s population – are expected to experience strong rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years.  But even if there is strong emissions mitigation – meaning that emissions are reduced enough to reach the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement – the expectation is that 20% of the world’s population will face extreme weather risks. 

These extreme events currently account for a disproportionate share of the realized impacts of climate change.  Heatwaves cause heat stress and excess mortality of both people and livestock.  Extreme precipitation leads to flooding, damage to settlements, infrastructure, crops, and ecosystems, as well as to reduced water quality. 

Society will be increasingly vulnerable to these extreme events, especially when multiple hazards occur at the same time.

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Extreme weather to strengthen rapidly over next two decades

Photo, posted May 20, 2024, courtesy of Dale Cruse via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Cities and rainwater

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Cities across the country are grappling with the problem that bigger, more frequent rainstorms occurring as a result of climate change are overtaxing the systems put in place to handle stormwater.  Cities use a combination of so-called green infrastructure – such as rain gardens and porous pavements – and traditional gray infrastructure, such as pipes, tunnels, and pump stations.

In 2011, Philadelphia drew national attention for its Green City, Clean Waters program that was designed to manage the increasing amount of storm water using mostly green infrastructure.  Thirteen years later, the city is experiencing billions of gallons of polluted stormwater overflowing its sewage outfall pipes each year.  Green infrastructure is cheaper and faster to build, but it is not coping with increasing rainfall.

About 700 U.S. municipalities, mostly in the Northeast and around the Great Lakes, rely on these combined sewer systems.  Based on updated climate projections, many are having to greatly increase gray infrastructure projects that include concrete holding tanks, tunnels, and pipes that can divert and hold onto flows until the rain stops, and water treatment plants can recover.  These projects can take decades to implement and cost billions of dollars.

All across the country, cities are going to need to bite the bullet and make large-scale investments in conventional sewage infrastructure and repairs to stop billions of gallons of raw sewage from running into rivers.  The increased storms present a daunting challenge for America’s cities.

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Faced With Heavier Rains, Cities Scramble to Control Polluted Runoff

Photo, posted August 29, 2011, courtesy of Reggie via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Artificial reefs

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The coral reefs that surround tropical islands are a refuge for a wide variety of marine life and also form a natural buffer against stormy seas.  The changing climate is bleaching coral reefs and breaking them down.  Extreme weather events are becoming more common and are threatening coastal communities with flooding and erosion.

Researchers at MIT are designing architected reefs – sustainable offshore structures that mimic the wave-buffering effects of natural reefs and can also provide habitats for fish and other marine life.

There are already artificial reefs in a number of places used to protect coastlines.  These are typically made from sunken ships, retired oil and gas platforms, and even assemblies of concrete, metal, car tires, and stones.  Generally, it takes quite a lot of material to form an effective barrier to waves.

The MIT group has developed a cylindrical structure surrounded by four rudder-like slats.  Their experiments have shown that when this structure stands in the way of a wave, it efficiently breaks the wave and creates turbulent jets that dissipate the energy in the wave.  The engineers calculated that the new design could reduce as much wave energy as existing artificial reefs but use 10 times less material.

Based on the initial experiments with lab-scale prototypes, these artificial reefs would reduce the energy of incoming waves by more than 95%.

Coral reefs are only found in tropical waters, whereas these artificial reefs don’t depend on temperature and could be placed along any coastline for protection.  In a time of rising seas and increasingly frequent storms, these artificial reefs may be just what coastlines need.

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Artificial reef designed by MIT engineers could protect marine life, reduce storm damage

Photo, posted December 9, 2010, courtesy of Phoenix Wolf-Ray via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How to make cities cooler

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In cities, the air, surface, and soil temperatures are almost always warmer than in rural areas. This is known as the urban heat island effect.  Urban heat islands occur when cities replace natural land cover with dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat.

Urban planners around the world have been researching ways to reduce the effects of heat in cities.  For example, trees, green roofs, and vegetation can help reduce urban heat island effects by shading building surfaces, deflecting radiation from the sun, and releasing moisture into the atmosphere.

A new study led by researchers from the University of Surrey in the U.K. has analyzed how well various green spaces and waterways are able to cool down cities.  The study, which was recently published in the journal The Innovation, found that wetlands, parks, and even botanical gardens are among the best ways to keep cities cool.   

In fact, the researchers found that botanical gardens can cool city air by a whopping 9°F during heatwaves on average.  Wetlands can cool city air by 8.5°F on average, followed by rain gardens at 8.1°F, green walls at 7.4°F, street trees at 6.8°F, city farms at 6.3°F, city parks at 5.8°F, and reservoirs and playgrounds at 5.2°F. 

The researchers also found that cities can unlock even greater benefits by connecting green spaces into green corridors.  Greening projects can also help remove carbon emissions and prevent flooding.

The research team hopes its findings will help urban planners design more resilient cities. 

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Wetlands, parks and even botanical gardens among the best ways to cool cities during heatwaves

Photo, posted April 25, 2022, courtesy of Catherine Poh Huay Tan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Sponging up a river

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During the first week of February, an atmospheric river dumped enormous amounts of rain on Southern California.  Over the course of four days, Los Angeles received 9 inches of rain.  The average annual rainfall in the city is only 14 inches.

But Los Angeles was not the site of a flooding disaster because the city has spent years preparing for this type of deluge by becoming a “sponge city.”   By installing lots of green spaces and shallow basins with porous soil, Los Angeles was able to soak up 8.6 billion gallons of water during the storm, enough to meet the water needs of 100,000 people for a year.

Cities covered with impermeable concrete sidewalks and paved areas make storm-related flooding worse because they are unable to absorb water.  Instead, the water flows into drains and overwhelms infrastructure.

Natural materials like dirt and plants take in water from storms and can filter it into underground aquifer that cities can then tap into, especially during droughts.  Adding green spaces to cities has many other benefits beyond the ability to absorb large amounts of rainwater.

The so-called sponge-city movement is catching on in many other places.  Philadelphia is revamping its water systems in a 25-year project that includes green spaces to absorb stormwater runoff.  In China, the government has spent more than a decade adding spongy elements to dozens of cities around the country.

Sponge cities are part of a broader effort to combine modern engineering techniques with natural systems.  This is known as green-gray infrastructure.  Nature knows what it is doing when it comes to flood control as well as to pollution control.

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‘Spongy’ LA Soaked Up Tons of Water From Atmospheric River

Photo, posted December 28, 2011, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The East Coast is sinking

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Most of the world’s largest cities are located in coastal regions and coastal regions are on the front lines of the climate crisis.  Human populations continue to migrate towards low-elevation coastal areas at the same time that sea level rise is accelerating.  Coastal communities worldwide are increasingly vulnerable to the dangers of flooding and erosion.  With these hazards occupying a great deal of attention, there has been less attention paid to the dangers of land subsidence.

A recent study by researchers at Virginia Tech and the US Geological Survey using satellite data shows that parts of America’s east coast are sinking, and the culprit is the withdrawal of too much water from the aquifers beneath these coastal areas.

A series of overlapping aquifers extends all the way from New Jersey to Florida along the coast, providing a reliable source of water for drinking, irrigation, and industrial uses.  Even though these areas get regular rainfall, the deeper aquifers can take hundreds or even thousands of years to refill once water is pumped out.  Once water is removed, soils can compress and collapse, causing the land surface to sink.

Cities that were built on drained marshland or on fill soil are especially vulnerable to compaction. 

Seal level rise is slow, but it is insidious and continuous.  Add land subsidence to the mix and effects multiply.  Places like Boston, New York, Washington DC, Roanoke, Savannah, Jacksonville, and Miami, among others, all are increasingly vulnerable to these coastal hazards.  The combined effects of sea level rise and subsidence may even triple the prospects for flooding areas over the next few decades.

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As Aquifers Are Depleted, Areas Along The East Coast Of The US Are Sinking

Photo, posted August 7, 2015, courtesy of Tracy Robillard / NRCS Oregon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A wet January

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For the first time in a while, the monthly report on the US climate did not feature record-setting heat.  The average January temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 1.6 degrees above the average, but that only ranked it in the middle third of the climate record.  The diminishing El Niño probably helped.  On the other hand, the global average temperature in January was again the warmest on record – the 8th consecutive record-setting month.

But January still managed to be atypical weatherwise in the U.S. in that the nation’s average precipitation across the country was 3.18 inches – nearly an inch above average – which made it the 10th wettest January in NOAA’s 130-year climate record.  Thirteen states experienced top-ten rainfall amounts.  In late January, record rainfall and flooding hit the southern plains, especially in parts of Texas and Louisiana.  Meanwhile, early February brought historic rainfall and mountain snow to California with a second round later in the month.

All of the rainfall in January has made some difference to drought conditions across the country.  On January 30th, about 23.5% of the contiguous U.S. was In drought, which was 9.5% lower than the beginning of the month.  However, drought conditions expanded or intensified across northern parts of the Rockies and Plains among a few other places.

Outside of the lower-48, Alaska continued to experience historic snowfall conditions.  Between October and the end of January, Anchorage had over 100 inches of snow.

We are living in an era of weather extremes.

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The nation just saw its 10th-wettest January on record

Photo, posted February 8, 2017, courtesy of Paxson Woelber via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Otters to the rescue

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California sea otters were hunted almost to extinction in the 19th century.  Only a small number survived along California’s central coast.  But over time, the otters recovered and increasingly recolonized their former habitats.

Sea otters are playing an important role in safeguarding California’s kelp forests and marshlands against the harmful effects of climate change.

Over much of the 20th century, increasing ocean heat had devastated underwater kelp forests by driving a population explosion of sea urchins that devour kelp.  But sea otters eat urchins and as the sea otter population has grown, kelp has flourished.  According to a new study published in PLOS Climate, the underwater kelp canopy along the central coast increased by 56% since 2016.  Kelp forests have become more extensive and resilient to climate change wherever sea otters have reoccupied the California coastline.

At the same time, sea otters started recolonizing their former habitat in a central California estuary several decades ago and erosion has slowed by as much as 90%.  The main reason is that otters love to eat the marsh crabs that were devouring the plants in this coastal ecosystem.  The marsh plants establish dense root systems that can withstand waves and flooding.  It would cost millions of dollars for humans to rebuild creekbanks and restore these coastal marshes.  Instead, sea otters have been stabilizing them for free in exchange for a crab feast.

Sea otters are playful creatures that people enjoy watching.  It turns out that they are also very valuable ecosystem engineers that are helping to mitigate the effects of the warming climate.

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How Sea Otters Are Protecting the California Coast Against Climate Change

Photo, posted May 17, 2021, courtesy of Michael L. Baird via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Protecting coastal areas with tidal range electricity generation

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Tidal range electricity generation uses the water level difference between high and low tides to operate generator turbines.  The method requires the construction of barrages and sluices to capture water during high tides and then release it during generation at low tide.  Tidal range generation is predictable renewable energy driven by the gravitational pull of the moon and sun.

It is only a practical scheme in those places that have large tidal ranges.  The largest tidal range in the world is in the Bay of Fundy in Canada.  The second largest is the Severn Estuary, in the UK.  Tidal ranges are large in many places around Britain’s coasts. But they are also vulnerable to flooding and surges from rising seas.

A new study by Lancaster University in the UK has found that the environmental and economic benefits are huge because tidal range barrages can protect coastal areas from flooding and sea level rise. With two-way generation and pumping, the full range of existing tides can be maintained to protect and support low-lying intertidal areas such as saltmarshes and mudflats. High tides can be limited to existing levels simply by closing sluices and running turbines and low tide levels can be maintained by pumping.  The study determined that with modern technology and operating procedures, these so-called estuarine barrages may be the only practical way to protect vital coastal habitats.

Earlier work by the researchers found that tidal range projects under commercial consideration in the UK can produce about 5% of the country’s electricity use and additional projects are feasible for 4 or 5 times as much generation.

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How tidal range electricity generation can protect coastal areas from flooding

Photo, posted August 17, 2014, courtesy of Andrea via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Thousands of species threatened

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The International Union for the Conservation of Nature is an organization working in the field of nature conservation and sustainable use of natural resources.  The IUCN has been around for nearly 75 years and is the global authority on the status of the natural world and the measures needed to safeguard it.

In its latest accounting, the IUCN has determined that more than 44,000 species worldwide are threatened with extinction.  Among them, nearly 7,000 face an immediate threat from climate change.

The organization tracks 157,000 species to compile its Red List and found that climate change poses a growing threat to many kinds of wildlife. At particular risk are freshwater fish including Atlantic salmon, which are now classified as “Near Threatened.” 

In all, about 25% of freshwater fish are threatened with extinction.  This is in part driven by rising sea levels which causes saltwater to be driven up into rivers.  Some 41% of amphibians are threatened with extinction, in part due to more intense heat and drought.  Many populations of green turtles are at risk of extinction because of rising temperatures lowering hatch rates and rising sea levels flooding nests.

It isn’t just animals at risk.  For example, big leaf mahogany, one of the world’s most commercially sought-after timber trees, has moved from Vulnerable to Endangered on IUCN’s Red List.  Thousands of trees have been added to the Red List, many of which are timber species, and some are keystone species in forests.

Endangered and threatened species are often irreplaceable parts of ecosystems which provide humans with many services that only the natural world can.

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More Than 44,000 Species Now Threatened With Extinction

Photo, posted November 22, 2010, courtesy of E. Peter Steenstra/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Billion-dollar weather disasters

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All sorts of weather records were set in 2023 and pretty much none of them were good news.  Among the most painful was that the U.S. suffered a record 25 weather- and climate-related disasters that caused more than a billion dollars in damage.

The increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased the frequency, intensity, and danger of extreme weather events of all types including hurricanes, severe storms, heavy rainfall, flooding, wildfire, extreme heat, and drought.

Between 1980 and 2022, the U.S. averaged eight billion-dollar weather disasters each year, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  Between 2018 and 2022, the average was 18 such disasters each year.  Last year, it was a record 25, three more than the previous record set in 2020.

The onslaught of weather disasters has put considerable pressure on disaster relief and emergency services of all kinds.  It seems like there are catastrophic events happening all the time; and in fact, there are.  The average time between billion-dollar disasters has dramatically shrunk.  In the 1980s, there was an average of 82 days between them.  Between 2018 and 2022, the lull between billion-dollar disasters dropped to an average of just 18 days.  For the first eleven months of 2023, the average time between billion-dollar weather disasters was just 10 days.

The global average temperature in 2023 was 1.4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average and the effects have been increasingly dramatic.  We can expect that the impacts will worsen with every bit of additional warming.  There is no time to waste in taking climate action.

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A Record Number of Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters Hit the U.S. in 2023

Photo, posted September 29, 2022, courtesy of State Farm via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

New York is raising its shoreline

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Superstorm Sandy in 2012 flooded 17% of New York City and caused $19 billion in damage.  In its aftermath, plans emerged to create floodwalls, raised elevations, high-capacity drainage, and other infrastructure to protect the city from future Sandy-like events.

Like all large infrastructure projects in densely populated places, the remaking of New York’s shoreline has only moved along in fits and starts.  But there has been significant progress.

The East Side Coastal Resiliency (ESCR) project is the largest urban resiliency project currently underway in the United States.  The first piece of it – the Asser Levy renovation – was completed in 2022.  Over the next three years, the $1.8 billion ESCR will reshape two-and-a-half miles of Lower Manhattan’s shoreline.  The ESCR is just one part of a much larger $2.7 billion initiative called the BIG U, which is a series of contiguous flood resilience projects that will create 5.5 miles of new park space specifically designed to protect over 60,000 residents and billions of dollars in real estate against sea level rise and storm surges. 

In a time of rising seas and increasingly powerful storms, flood-prone coastal U.S. cities – including Boston, Norfolk, Charleston, Miami, and San Francisco – are moving toward embracing the long-held Dutch concept of “living with water”, which emphasizes infrastructure that can both repel and absorb water while also providing recreational and open space.

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After a Decade of Planning, New York City Is Raising Its Shoreline

Photo, posted November 1, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

An Unwanted Temperature Threshold Is Approaching | Earth Wise

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According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 66% chance over the next five years that the Earth’s global temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

A combination of the continued accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere along with a looming El Niño condition will contribute to surging temperatures.  The WMO also reports that there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record and that the five-year period as a whole will be the warmest on record.

Reaching or surpassing the 1.5-degree threshold may only be temporary but would be the strongest indication yet of how quickly climate change is accelerating.   The 1.5-degree point is considered by many scientists to be a key tipping point, beyond which the chances of extreme flooding, drought, wildfires, heatwaves, and food shortages could increase dramatically.

The world has already seen about 1.2 degrees of warming as we continue to burn fossil fuels and produce enormous quantities of greenhouse gas emissions.  As recently as 2015, the WMO put the chance of breaching the 1.5-degree threshold as close to zero.

It is important to understand that the 1.5-degree temperature increase is an average for the entire planet.  Many individual locations around the world have been experiencing tremendously greater amounts of warming with record-breaking temperatures.

The 1.5-degree threshold is important, but it is not itself a tipping point.  There is still time to reduce global warming by moving away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy.  But the clock is ticking and so far, the world is not showing any urgency.

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‘Sounding the alarm’: World on track to breach a critical warming threshold in the next five years

Photo, posted May 20, 2015, courtesy of Kevin Gill via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Two Lost Lakes Return To California | Earth Wise

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The recent siege of powerful storms in California driven by a series of atmospheric rivers has had a significant effect on the severe drought that has plagued most of the state for many years.  Many of the state’s reservoirs are at the highest level they have been for decades.   The snowpack in the Sierras is well over 200% of its historical average.  Many parts of the state are no longer considered to be in drought conditions, and, in fact, flooding has been a serious problem in some areas.  This flooding has had some surprising results.

Two California lakes that drained a century ago have reappeared as a result of floodwaters from the recent storms.

Tulare Lake, in California’s Central Valley used to be fed by rain and snowmelt from the Sierras.  A system of dams and canals constructed in the early 20th century to support regional agriculture diverted water away from the lake.  It used to be the largest freshwater lake in the West but farmers ultimate planted crops in the dried lakebed.

The atmospheric river events in March inundated that farmland and once again there is water in Tulare Lake.

Owens Lake, on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada, was long fed by mountain streams.  The 1913 construction of the Los Angeles Aqueduct redirected water to that city and desiccated the lake.   Floodwaters in March caused a partial collapse of the aqueduct and when the spill gates on the aqueduct were opened to drain the damaged areas, floodwaters poured in and partially refilled the lake.

California has suffered from drought for many years.  With its massive snowpack, as the weather warms, the state may face even more flooding.

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Two Long-Drained California Lakes Refilled by Floodwaters, Satellite Images Show

Photo, posted November 10, 2014, courtesy of CN via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Protecting New York City From Flooding | Earth Wise

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Hurricane Sandy flooded Lower Manhattan in October 2012, closing Wall Street, blacking out power for 250,000 people, and killing 44 New Yorkers.  Within a year, plans were in motion to build berms, floodwalls, and water gates along the city’s Lower East Side in a $770 million first phase of an overall plan to defend New York City from future floodwaters.

Plans got more and more complicated, and the price tag reached $1.45 billion before the existing plan was scrapped by former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration in 2018 without involving the community groups that were instrumental in creating the original plan.  After years of lawsuits and court actions, the revised East Side Coastal Resiliency Project is finally proceeding, now at a price tag approaching $3 billion. The project will include 18 moveable floodgates and will protect 110,000 New Yorkers, including 28,000 low-income public-housing residents and is expected to be completed in 2026.

The original larger overall plan was halted in 2020 after former President Trump mocked it and claimed that it would cost $200 billion.  The current plan, created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and known as the 3B alternative, calls for a combination of deployable flood barriers, floodwalls, seawalls, and elevated promenades wrapping around the lower part of Manhattan.  The cost of the project is estimated to be $61 billion. 

In the meantime, over 10 years after Sandy, a similar storm would have almost the same effect today as Sandy had back then.

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New York City Begins Its Climate Change Reckoning on the Lower East Side, the Hard Way

Photo, posted January 19, 2013 courtesy of Andres Alvarado via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Dangers Of Melting Glaciers | Earth Wise

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Some of most dramatic evidence that the Earth’s climate is warming is the retreat and even disappearance of mountain glaciers around the world.  2022 was the 35th year in a row that glaciers tracked by the World Glacier Monitoring Service lost rather than gained ice.  Glaciers gain mass through snowfall and lose mass through melting and sublimation (water evaporating directly from solid ice.)  Some glaciers that terminate in lakes or the ocean lose mass through iceberg calving.

In the warming climate, glaciers retreat and meltwater collects at the front of the glacier forming a lake.  Such lakes can suddenly burst and create a fast-flowing Glacier Lake Outburst Flood that can spread over a large distance from the original site – in some cases over 70 miles.  These floods can damage property, infrastructure, and agricultural land and can also be deadly.

The number of glacial lakes has grown rapidly since 1990 as a result of climate change.  According to research by an international team of scientists led by Newcastle University in the UK, the number of people living in glacial lake catchments has increased significantly.

According to the study, 15 million people live within 30 miles of a glacial lake.  The highest danger is in High Mountain Asia – which encompasses the Tibetan Plateau.  That area, which spans from Kyrgyzstan to parts of China, has 9.3 million people potentially at risk.  India and Pakistan have around 5 million exposed people.

Detailed analysis shows that it is not the areas with the largest number or most rapidly growing lakes that are most dangerous.  It is the number of people in proximity to the lakes and their ability to cope with potential floods.

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Glacial flooding threatens millions globally

Photo, posted February 12, 2022, courtesy of David Stanley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Flooding | Earth Wise

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Starting in December, a series of “atmospheric rivers” brought record storms to California producing as much rain in three weeks in some areas as they normally have in an entire year.  The historic levels of rain (and snow in the mountains) have swollen rivers, flooded roads and homes, forced evacuations, knocked out electric power for millions of people, and resulted in more than 20 deaths.

Atmospheric rivers are air currents that carry large amounts of water vapor through the sky.  They are not unusual for California but recurrent waves of them like those that have happened recently are very infrequent.  Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that such a phenomenon recurs in California every 250 years.  There were a series of storms causing disastrous floods in California in 1861-62.

The atmospheric rivers are born in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific.  During La Nina phases, the atmospheric rivers typically make landfall on the northern West Coast. During El Nino phases, atmospheric rivers are more likely to end up in Southern and Central California. During transitions between the phases, as is happening now, the storms can cover large parts of the state.

Modern forecasting is pretty good at predicting the forthcoming occurrence of these storms and has led to some helpful actions, such as reservoir operators preventing dams from overflowing or bursting.  But there is a gap between science and decision-making.  It is pretty clear what needs to be done when tornados or hurricanes are on the way.  It is less clear what actions are appropriate when there are going to be repeated heavy rainstorms.

These storms will have an effect on California’s megadrought, but just how much of an effect remains to be seen.

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Flooding in California: What Went Wrong, and What Comes Next

Photo, posted January 5, 2023, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deforestation-Free Pledges | Earth Wise

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Deforestation is the purposeful clearing of forested land. Forests are cut down to make space for animal grazing, agriculture, and to obtain wood for fuel, manufacturing, and construction. Deforestation has greatly altered landscapes around the world and continues to do so today. 

Deforestation is the second largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, trailing only fossil fuel use. Deforestation can lead to all sorts of problems, including biodiversity loss, soil erosion, desertification, and flooding.  Deforestation also threatens peoples’ livelihoods and increases inequality and conflict.

As a result, many companies around the world have made pledges to remove deforestation from their supply chains.  In fact, more than 94 companies had adopted zero-deforestation commitments by 2021.  But while these companies are talking the talk, they don’t seem to be walking the walk. 

According to a new study recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, companies’ deforestation-free supply chain pledges have barely impacted forest clearance in the Amazon. 

The research team from the University of Cambridge, Boston University, ETH Zurich, and New York University found corporate pledges to not purchase soybeans grown on land deforested after 2006 have only reduced tree clearance in the Brazilian Amazon by 1.6% between 2006 and 2015.  The researchers found that if these pledges had been implemented, the current levels of deforestation in Brazil could be reduced by approximately 40%.  

According to the research team, the findings of the study indicate that private sector efforts are not enough to stop deforestation. Political leadership will also be vital to forest conservation efforts.

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Companies’ ‘deforestation-free’ supply chain pledges have barely impacted forest clearance in the Amazon, researchers say

Photo, posted November 18, 2020, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

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