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Amphibians and climate change

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Amphibians are a group of vertebrate animals that include frogs, toads, and salamanders. They are unique for their ability to live both in water and on land during different stages of life. Amphibians play a crucial role in ecosystems, often serving as both predators and prey in food webs.

Amphibians are the world’s most at-risk vertebrates, with more than 40% of species listed as threatened.  They are cold-blooded creatures and rely on external sources to regulate their body temperature.  But needing to regulate their body heat this way makes amphibians particularly vulnerable to temperature change in their habitats. 

Researchers from the University of New South Wales in Australia can now predict the heat tolerance of 60% of the world’s amphibian species.  This new tool will allow scientists to better identify which amphibian species and habitats will be most impacted by climate change.  

The study’s landmark findings, which were recently published in the journal Nature, found that 2% of amphibian species are already exposed to overheating in shaded terrestrial conditions.  According to the research team, a 4°C global temperature increase could push 7.5% of amphibian species beyond their physiological limits. 

Local amphibian extinctions can trigger ecological repercussions, including reshuffling community compositions, eroding genetic diversity, and impacting the food chain and overall ecosystem health.

The researchers highlight the importance of vegetation and water bodies in protecting amphibians during heat waves, and emphasize the need to provide adequate water and shade during future conservation efforts. 

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The pot is already boiling for 2% of the world’s amphibians: new study

Photo, posted October 8, 2011, courtesy of Dave Huth via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Are today’s refrigerants safe?

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Refrigeration is based on heat transfer mediums that absorb heat from the area being cooled and transfer it to the outside environment.

The earliest refrigerants were dangerous substances like ammonia.  In the 1930s, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) like Freon became the standard refrigerant for use in refrigeration systems and even in aerosol cans.  When these substances were found to be depleting the earth’s ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol dictated their phaseout and by the mid-1990s, CFCs were largely replaced by hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

HFCs don’t deplete the ozone layer, but they were eventually determined to be potent greenhouse gases, thousands of times more planet-warming than carbon dioxide.   As a result, the global phaseout of HFCs began in 2016, and have been increasingly replaced by hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), which are considered a more environmentally-friendly alternative to all their predecessors.

Trying to not be surprised by additional unpleasant discoveries about refrigerants, researchers are studying the potential environmental impacts of HFOs.  Researchers at the University of New South Wales in Australia have found that HFOs can break down in the atmosphere and that some small amounts of the resultant products are in fact fluoroforms, which are the HFC with the greatest global warming potential and can stay in the atmosphere for up to 200 years.

That only a small amount of HFC gets into the atmosphere is good, but nevertheless it reveals that the consequences of replacing widely-used chemicals are not a simple matter to determine.

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Are our refrigerants safe? The lingering questions about the chemicals keeping us cool

Photo, posted July 19, 2021, courtesy of Vernon Air Conditioning via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Megadroughts

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A new study by Swiss and Austrian scientists has found that persistent multi-year droughts have become increasingly common since 1980 and will continue to proliferate as the climate warms.

There are multiple examples in recent years in places ranging from California to Mongolia to Australia.  Fifteen years of persistent megadrought in Chile have nearly dried out the country’s water reserves and even affected Chile’s vital mining output.  These multi-year droughts have triggered acute water crises in vulnerable regions around the world.

Droughts tend to only be noticed when they damage agriculture or visibly affect forests.  An issue explored by the new study is whether megadroughts can be consistently identified and their impact on ecosystems understood.

The researchers analyzed global meteorological data and modeled droughts over a forty-year period beginning in 1980.  They found that multi-year droughts have become longer, more frequent, and more extreme, covering more land.  Every year since 1980, drought-stricken areas have spread by an additional fifty thousand square kilometers on average, an area the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined. 

The trend of intensifying megadroughts is clearly leading to drier and browner ecosystems.  Tropical forests can offset the effects of drought as long as they have enough water reserves.  However, the long-term effects on the planet and its ecosystems remain largely unknown.  Ultimately, long-term extreme water shortages will result in trees in tropical and boreal regions dying, causing long-term and possibly irreversible damage to these ecosystems.

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The Megadroughts Are upon Us

Photo, posted January 7, 2018, courtesy of Kathleen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Vertical-axis wind turbines

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Nearly all wind turbines in use today are horizonal axis wind turbines.  They are a familiar sight with their three giant rotor blades spinning about an axis high above the ground attached to a nacelle containing the gearbox and generator. 

A vertical-axis wind turbine has its rotor shaft transverse to the wind; that is, the shaft rises up from the ground and the gearbox and generator are located close to the ground.

This type of wind turbine does not need to be pointed into the wind, which eliminates the need for wind-sensing and orienting mechanisms.  It is also considerably quieter in operation than horizontal axis wind turbines.  Vertical-axis wind turbines have enjoyed minimal success to date because of a variety of problems including reliability issues and complications related to how they respond to changing wind conditions.

A next-generation vertical wind turbine is going on trial in Australia as part of a research collaboration between Flinders University in South Australia and the start-up company VAWT-X Energy.  The 6KW prototype will be installed at a field site in Australia’s Fleurieu Peninsula.

According to the developers, the new turbine design will be as efficient, or even more efficient, as existing horizontal turbines and will be able to thrive across diverse environments including being part of urban infrastructure where their relative quiet is a real advantage.   Such turbines would be more accessible for applications like off-grid power and sustainable energy solutions for small businesses and farms.  The developers claim the technology can also be scaled up for large-scale windfarms.

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Progress with new-look wind turbine

Photo courtesy of VAWT-X Energy.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tourism and greenhouse gas emissions

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Tourism is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for about 9% of the global total.  Over the past 15 years, its emissions have grown more than twice as fast as those of the rest of the global economy.

Unless the tourism industry finds ways to slow down its growing emissions, those emissions will continue to increase by 3 to 4% each year, meaning that they will double every 20 years.  The major drivers behind tourism’s growing emissions have been slow improvements in tourism-related technologies coupled with the rapid growth in demand.

Transportation is tourism’s main source of greenhouse gas emissions.  Planes and cars generate the most carbon dioxide but there are contributions from tour buses, boat rides, ferries, and trains as well.  The increasing demand for international travel has been the largest contributor to the growth of tourism-related emissions.  But just as people’s homes generate emissions from energy use, so do hotels and other lodging used on vacations.

The United States, China, and India are responsible for 60% of the total increase in tourism’s carbon footprint.  Generally speaking, it is the world’s wealthiest nations that have the most tourists exploring the world.

Researchers from Australia’s University of Queensland recommended several measures to slow the growth of tourism’s carbon emissions.  These include reducing long-haul flights, imposing carbon dioxide taxes, setting carbon budgets, and the use of alternative transportation fuels.  At the local level, tourism businesses making use of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles would help.

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Tourism leads the pack in growing carbon emissions

Photo, posted September 14, 2014, courtesy of Gary Campbell-Hall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Regrowing forests naturally

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Deforestation is one of the major causes of climate change and restoring and enhancing forests is a major activity around the world as a way to mitigate its effects.  There are high-profile initiatives to plant millions of trees, but these projects are often ill-conceived and poorly managed.

One of the most dramatic failures was the planting of over a million mangrove seedlings on the Filipino island of Luzon back in 2012.  A study 8 years later found that fewer than 2 percent of the trees had survived.  The rest died or were washed away.

The causes of failure in tree planting programs include planting of trees that become vulnerable to disease, competing demands for land, changing climate, planting in areas not previously forested, and a lack of aftercare including watering seedlings.

A multinational study recently published in Nature has found that forests could regrow naturally on more than 800,000 square miles of land around the tropics without the need for planting trees by hand.  This is an area larger than Mexico.

The researchers mapped areas where forests would be likely to regrow – areas where soils are healthy and where there is already forest nearby to supply seeds.  In some places, lands are so degraded that it is necessary to plant trees by hand, but this is costly and prone to failure.  Forests that regrow naturally tend to fare better and make better habitats for wildlife.

The effect of regrown forests on the climate would be very substantial.  If these forests were allowed to grow for three decades, they would absorb enough carbon to offset 50 years of emissions by Australia, the home of the lead researcher of the study. 

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Tropical Forests Could Regrow Naturally on Area the Size of Mexico

Photo, posted February 16, 2018, courtesy of Jason Houston / USAID via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Lithium in Arkansas

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Lithium is the critical raw material in the batteries that power electric cars as well as cell phones, computers, and other gadgets.  The stuff has been nicknamed “white gold” for good reason.  Chile and Australia are the world’s largest producers of the metal, which is mostly extracted from brine in evaporation ponds.  The majority of it is then processed in China.  The energy industry has been increasingly working to produce the raw materials needed to produce lithium-ion batteries in the United States and process those materials domestically.  There are multiple projects at various stages across the country.

Researchers at the US Geological Survey and the Arkansas state government recently announced that they have discovered a vast trove of lithium in an underground brine reservoir in Arkansas.

With a combination of water testing and machine learning, the researchers determined that there could be 5 to as much as 19 million tons of lithium in the geological area called the Smackover Formation.  This is more than enough to meet all the world’s demand for it.

Several companies – including Exxon Mobil, which is covering its bets on the future of oil as an energy source – are developing projects in Arkansas to produce lithium.  If these companies can develop and scale up economical new ways to extract lithium from salty water, the region in Arkansas could become the lithium capital of the world.

Energy and mining companies have produced oil, gas, and other natural resources in the Smackover Formation, which extends from Texas to Florida.  The same brines have long been the source of other valuable substances. 

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Arkansas May Have Vast Lithium Reserves, Researchers Say

Photo, posted May 22, 2020, courtesy of the European Space Agency via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rising methane emissions

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Methane is a colorless and odorless gas that occurs abundantly in nature and is also a product of certain human activities.  It’s a short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gas and, as a result, is a major driver of climate change.  In fact, methane heats the atmosphere nearly 90 times faster than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. 

Despite a global pledge from more than 150 nations to reduce methane emissions by 30% this decade, methane emissions continue to rise.  In fact, according to a new paper led by researchers from Stanford University, total annual methane emissions have increased 20% over the past two decades. 

The paper, which was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that atmospheric concentrations of methane today are more than 2.6 times higher than in pre-industrial times.  In fact, atmospheric methane concentrations are currently the highest they’ve been in at least 800,000 years.

Methane emissions from coal mining, oil and gas production and use, cattle and sheep ranching, and decomposing organic waste in landfills are responsible for driving the growth.  In 2020, the most recent year for which data was available, nearly 400 million tons – or about two-thirds – of global methane emissions came directly from human activities. 

Methane concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere have increased at record speed over the past five years.  According to the research team, only the European Union and possibly Australia seem to have decreased methane emissions from human activities over the past two decades.  This trend “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate.”

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Methane emissions are rising faster than ever

Photo, posted December 4, 2010, courtesy of Dani Mettler via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tourism and climate action

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Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is one of the foremost natural wonders of the world and is a major tourist attraction.  It is well-known that the changing climate is threatening the survival of the Great Barrier Reef as well as other coral reefs around the world.  A recent study by researchers at the University of Queensland looked at the reactions of tourists to being informed about the impact of the changing climate on the reef.

The Great Barrier Reef faces many challenges.  Unprecedented marine heatwaves have triggered repeated mass coral bleaching events over the past decade. These climate driven disturbances are compounding the cumulative effects of chronic problems such as unsustainable fishing, pollution, and sedimentation as well as acute disturbances such as tropical cyclones and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish.

Operators of five reef tourism boats assisted in the study.  As part of their boat trips, tourists were given climate information via a marine biology presentation and there were also posters around the vessel as well as regular mentions of climate change impacts and actions throughout the trip.

The tourism industry often has the idea that providing information on climate change might be detrimental to people’s enjoyment – basically a buzzkill.  But based on surveys conducted at the end of the trips, the researchers found that informing tourists about climate impact didn’t negatively affect their experience.  In fact, most tourists actually wanted more information, particularly about how they can take meaningful actions of their own.

The researchers believe that their study provides further opportunity to improve climate communication and effectively promote climate change engagement among tourists.

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Reef tourism encourages climate action

Photo, posted October 7, 2008, courtesy of eGuide Travel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Mixed news for the Great Barrier Reef

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A prolonged and widespread coral bleaching event in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has taken place this year.  It is the fifth such event over the past eight years and appears to be one of the worst ever.  According to preliminary analysis, 97% of corals in some areas of the northern part of the reef died as a result of the bleaching.  Over the entire length of the reef – which is more than 1,200 miles long – bleaching was observed on 74% of the more than 1,000 individual reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef.  Half of those observed recorded high or very high levels of bleaching, although less than 10% had extreme levels of bleaching.

Prior to this mass bleaching event, an extensive survey of the reef was conducted, and it provided some good news.  Coral cover had increased in all three regions on the Great Barrier Reef and was actually at regional highs in two of the three regions.  The surveys were completed before the passage of Tropic Cyclone Jasper in December 2023.

Bleached corals are very stressed, but they still remain alive for at least some period of time.  Some types of corals can remain bleached for months, hanging on like a hospital patient in critical condition, but then recover.  Depending upon water conditions going forward, it remains to be seen how much of the reef will survive the latest bleaching event.  The next survey season by the Australian Institute of Marine Science will commence in September.

In many ways, the reef has had some lucky escapes in recent years.  As marine heatwaves become increasingly common, its luck may eventually run out.

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New report on Great Barrier Reef shows coral cover increases before onset of serious bleaching, cyclones

Photo, posted 8, 2023, courtesy of Chris Hoare via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Nearly everyone wants climate action

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A global survey of 75,000 people revealed that 80% of participants want their governments’ climate action commitments to be stronger.  The poll, conducted by the United Nations Development Program, GeoPoll, and Oxford University, asked 15 questions in telephone calls to residents of 77 countries representing 87% of the global population.

According to the survey, 89% of poorer countries favored increasing efforts to curb global emission, while 76% of wealthy G20 nations supported tougher climate action.

The two biggest greenhouse emitters in the world were less enthusiastic:  Chinese participants were 73% in favor of stronger action and Americans were 66% in favor of greater efforts to combat global warming. 

Other demographic differences included that in the big emitting countries of Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and the U.S., women were 10 to 17% more in support of stronger climate action than men.

Overall, only 7% of those polled globally thought their government should not transition away from fossil fuels at all.  More than half of those polled said that they were more worried about climate change this year than last year.  A worldwide majority of 72% support a fast fossil fuel phaseout, including those in nations that are among the top ten coal, oil, and gas producers.

As is the case across the board with respect to climate issues, the more influential factor continues to be economic as opposed to scientific or humanitarian.  Those who stand to lose the most money from the transition away from fossil fuels continue to hold sway over those who will lose in many other ways.

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Four Out of Five People Want Increased Climate Action, UN Poll Says

Photo, posted July 31, 2020, courtesy of School Strike 4 Climate via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The slippery slopes of the ski industry

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, snowfall is declining globally as temperatures warm because of human-caused climate change.  Less snow threatens to reinforce global warming, and to disrupt food, water, and livelihoods for billions of people.   

According to new modeling by researchers from Protect Our Winters Australia and The Australian National University, the ski industry in Australia is at risk of major disruptions and shorter seasons if climate change continues unabated.  The researchers found the average ski season across all resorts in Australia will be 44 days shorter by 2050 under a mid-greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and 55 days shorter under a high-emissions scenario.

But the research team also revealed that the Australian ski industry would fare significantly better if decisive action is taken to reduce climate pollution.  In fact, under a low-emissions scenario, the ski season would be 28 days shorter by 2050, before starting to improve by 2080 if emissions are kept down.

However, if decisive climate action isn’t taken, the researchers warn some ski resorts in Australia may be forced to close for good.  But this threat isn’t unique to Australia. 

In fact, according to a study recently published in the journal PLOS ONE, 13% of ski areas around the world are predicted to lose all natural snow cover under the high-emissions scenario by 2071-2100 – relative to their historic baselines. 

The future losses of ski areas around the world will be significant if global emissions continue unchecked.

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Climate crisis puts Australia’s ski industry on slippery slope, but not all hope is lost

“Our Changing Snowscapes” Report Released

The future is likely less skiable, thanks to climate change

Photo, posted June 6, 2018, courtesy of Clement Tang via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Oases and desertification

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Oases are important sources of water for people, plants, and animals in the world’s desert areas.  In fact, oases sustain 10% of the world’s population despite taking up only about 1.5% of land area.  They form when groundwater flows and settles into low-lying areas or when surface meltwater flows down from nearby mountains and pools.

New research from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has found that oases added 85,000 square miles of new area from 1995 to 2020, mostly from artificial expansion projects, but over the same period lost 52,000 square miles from desertification and water scarcity.  The net gain of 33,000 square miles is not considered to be sustainable given that it was mostly due to artificial causes.  The oasis expansion projects were in Asia but losses due to desertification were also mostly in Asia.

Today, oases are found in 37 countries.  Increases in oases mostly come from people intentionally converting desert land into oases using runoff water and groundwater pumping, creating grasslands and croplands. This mostly has taken place in China.

Human over-exploitation of dwindling groundwater can limit the sustainability of oases as can the long-term loss of glaciers.

The study highlighted ways to sustain healthy oases, including suggestions for improving water resource management, promoting sustainable land use and management, and encouraging water conservation and efficient water use.  As the climate continues to change, these efforts will be increasingly important for a significant portion of the world’s population.

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World’s Oases Threatened By Desertification, Even As Humans Expand Them

Photo, posted August 3, 2008, courtesy of Paul Williams via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate change and fish migration

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The warming climate is changing the distribution of fish species.  Researchers at the University of Adelaide in Australia have observed that tropical fish species are moving into temperate Australian waters.

The Eastern Australian Current is strengthening as the climate warms and larvae of tropical fish are getting caught in the current and moving into more temperate regions.  These larvae would not normally survive in the cooler Australian ocean water, but the warming current keeps the baby fish warm and increases their chances for survival.  The fish migration observed in the study is an ongoing process that has strengthened in the last few decades due to ocean warming.

The novel populations of tropical fish in these temperate ecosystems are not having much impact at the present time, but they may do so in the future.  The water is still cooler than the fishes’ natural environment and therefore they do not grow to their maximum size.  As a result, they don’t represent stiff competition for the native species – at least not yet.

As the ocean temperatures continue to rise, these tropical species will eventually grow to their full size and their diets will overlap more and more with those of temperate fish species.  Tropical herbivores tend to overgraze temperate kelp while the impact of tropical fish that eat invertebrates is less well understood.  Tropical fish with varied diets are the most successful invaders.  The ultimate effects on temperate ecosystems remain to be seen but survival may become difficult for the native fish in rapidly warming temperate ocean environments.

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Tropical fish are invading Australian ocean water

Photo, posted March 28, 2017, courtesy of Ryan McMinds via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Natural hydrogen

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Hydrogen is considered to be a potential substitute for conventional fossil fuels in applications where electricity cannot easily be used such as in blast furnaces, cement works, industrial heating, long-distance aviation, and shipping.  But most hydrogen is manufactured by separating it from methane, which is energy-intensive and produces carbon dioxide.  So-called green hydrogen is made by splitting water using electricity.  It is a carbon-free process if the electricity is from renewable sources, but it is pretty expensive.

A small community in Mali gets its electricity by burning natural hydrogen, which bubbles up from underground into a village well.  It has long been known that processes in the Earth’s crust can make hydrogen gas from water under certain circumstances.  But conventional wisdom has been that this occurrence is rare and that the hydrogen produced is either inaccessible or seeps away.

An increasing number of geoscientists now are convinced that there is actually an enormous quantity of hydrogen beneath the planet’s surface and that we just haven’t been looking for it in the right places, or at all, for that matter.  Some say that there could be trillions of tons of hydrogen, and more is being generated all the time.

Prospectors have recently been drilling for hydrogen in France, Australia, Morocco, Brazil, and in the United States, in Nebraska, Arizona, and Kansas.  Will extracting natural hydrogen be practical at the scale required and will it be economical?  The jury is still out on all of this, but if it turns out as proponents claim, natural hydrogen could be a very big deal.

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Natural Hydrogen: A Potential Clean Energy Source Beneath Our Feet

Photo, posted November 4, 2012, courtesy of Heather Paul via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record high emissions

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The world is adding solar and wind power to the grid.   We are driving more and more electric cars.  Countries are pledging to cut back fossil fuel use.  There are highly visible international conferences on the climate crisis.   But despite all of these things, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have risen once again in 2023, reaching all-time record high levels of more than 40 billion tons, about 1.1% more than the previous year.

In some places, including Europe and the U.S., fossil fuel CO2 emissions are falling, but globally, they are still rising.  Emissions continued to increase in India and China.  Global action to cut fossil fuel use is not happening fast enough to prevent the increasingly dangerous effects of climate change.

Global CO2 emissions include both the contributions of fossil fuel use and the effects of land use change.  Adding the two together, in 2023 the total was about 45 billion tons, basically unchanged from last year. 

Adding insult to injury are the emissions from fires.  The extreme wildfire seasons in Canada, Australia, and other places have contributed CO2 emissions much larger than historical averages.

About half of all the carbon dioxide emitted on Earth is absorbed by carbon sinks on land and the oceans.  The other half remains in the atmosphere, where levels are now averaging 419 parts per million, 51% above pre-industrial levels.

Current efforts are simply not profound enough or widespread enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory.  Some climate policies in some places are proving effective, but much more needs to be done.

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Fossil CO2 emissions at record high in 2023

Photo, posted December 18, 2013, courtesy of Steve Nelson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Huge American Lithium Discovery | Earth Wise

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Human history has often been described in terms of a succession of metal ages:  the copper age, the bronze age, and the iron age.  In many ways, we have now entered the lithium age.  The light metal goes into the batteries that power smartphones, electric vehicles, and massive storage banks for the power grid.  Lithium has become a critical strategic resource.

As it stands now, the U.S. gets most of its lithium from imports from Australia and South America.  Major lithium sources are not commonplace; in 2022 there were only 45 lithium mines in the world.  Many of the known deposits are not in North America but in Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, China, and Australia.  The current largest known lithium deposits lie beneath the salt flats of Bolivia.

Lithium Americas Corporation, a company dedicated to advancing lithium projects to the stage of production, funded research over the past decade that has identified vast deposits of lithium-rich clay in a dormant volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border.  The McDermitt Caldera is estimated to hold between 20 and 40 million tons of lithium, which would make it the largest deposit in the world.

There are many questions still to answer.  It is not clear how easy it will be to extract lithium from the clay, in particular how expensive or carbon-intensive it will be.  There are also political complexities since the area where the lithium deposit was found is considered to be unceded ancestral land for both the Paiute and Shoshone tribes.

Apart from a dearth of domestic sources of lithium, the US also lags well behind China in lithium processing capabilities.  The country has catching up to do in the new lithium age.

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America Just Hit the Lithium Jackpot

Photo, posted April 19, 2020, courtesy of Ken Lund via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

El Niño Will Likely Return | Earth Wise

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El Niño, a weather phenomenon triggered by warm waters in the eastern Pacific, is likely to return this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization.  The Pacific has been in the cooler La Niña phase for the past 3 years, which is unusual, but that appears to be coming to a close.  According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance that the Pacific will shift to the El Niño phase before fall.

Record hot years typically coincide with El Niño, which adds to the ongoing warming trend in the climate.   There is not yet a clear picture of how strong the forthcoming El Niño event will be or how long it might last, but even a mild El Niño could affect precipitation and temperature patterns around the world.

The hottest year on record, 2016, occurred during a particularly strong El Niño.  Experts expect that 2024 is likely to see soaring temperatures again.  El Niño generally leads to drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia, but greater amounts of rainfall in South America, the U.S., and parts of Africa.  Despite the presence of a cooling La Niña for the past three years, the last eight years have been the hottest on record.

El Niño and La Niña form an intermittent cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, that is highly influential in shaping the year-to-year variations in weather conditions around the world.  ENSO is a natural phenomenon and scientists are still trying to understand how human-caused climate change might be impacting the behavior and dynamics of the cycle.

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‘A New Spike’ in Global Temperatures in the Forecast

Photo, posted October 11, 2015, courtesy of Harshil Shah via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Wildfire Smoke And Global Weather | Earth Wise

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In 2019 and 2020, wildfires burned 72,000 square miles in Australia, roughly the same area as the entire country of Syria. During the nine months when the fires raged, persistent and widespread plumes of smoke filled the atmosphere.

These aerosols brightened a vast area of clouds above the subtropical Pacific Ocean.  Beneath these clouds, the surface of the ocean and the atmosphere cooled.  The effect of this was an unexpected and long-lasting cool phase of the Pacific’s La Niña-El Niño cycle.

A new modeling study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado quantified the extent to which aerosols from the Australian wildfires made clouds over the tropical Pacific reflect more sunlight back towards space.  The resultant cooling shifted the cloud and rain belt known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward.  These effects may have helped trigger the unusual three-year-long La Niña, which lasted from late 2019 through 2022.

The impacts of that La Niña included intensifying drought and famine in Eastern Africa and priming the Atlantic Ocean for hurricanes.  2020 was the most active tropical storm season on record, with 31 storm systems, including 11 that made landfall in the U.S.

The study highlights widespread multi-year climate impacts caused by an unprecedented wildfire season.  The wildfires set off a chain of events that influenced weather far from where the fires occurred.  In the future, climate experts will need to include the potential effects of wildfires in their forecasts.

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How Wildfire Smoke from Australia Affected Climate Events Around the World

Photo, posted December 19, 2019, courtesy of Simon Rumi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Plastic Eating Fungus | Earth Wise

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More than five billion tons of plastic have accumulated on land and sea including the most remote regions of the planet as well as in the bodies of animals and humans.  There is a compelling need to recycle as much plastic as possible but doing so is a major challenge. Plastic comes in many varieties and breaking it down for reuse requires different methods for each.

Polypropylene is one of the biggest challenges for recycling.  It is a very common plastic used for all sorts of products including food containers, coat hangers, plastic wrap, toys, and much more. It accounts for roughly 28% of the world’s plastic waste, but only 1% of it is recycled.

Polypropylene is seldom recycled because it generally has a short life as a packaging material, and it often becomes contaminated by other materials and plastics.  Thus, it generally ends up in landfills.

Researchers at the University of Sydney in Australia have discovered that two common strains of fungi were able to successfully biodegrade polypropylene.  The fungi species – with unavoidable Latin names of Aspergillus terreus and Engyodontium album – are typically found in soil and plants.

The researchers found that the fungi were able to break down polypropylene after it had been pre-treated with either UV light or heat, by 21% over 30 days, and by 25-27% over 90 days.  This seems rather slow but compared with the nearly endless life of polypropylene in landfills, it is a major improvement.

The hope is that methods like this could ultimately reduce the amount of plastic polluting the environment by encouraging plastic to biodegrade naturally under the appropriate conditions.

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Fungi makes meal of hard to recycle plastic

Photo, posted March 5, 2010, courtesy of Kevin Krejci via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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