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Climate change and hunger

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Worldwide, people are producing more food than ever, but most of that production is concentrated into only a handful of places.  For example, fully one third of the world’s wheat and barley exports come from Ukraine and Russia.  Across the globe, several major crop-growing regions, including some in the United States, are heading towards sharp drops in harvests as a result of climate change.

These forthcoming changes are not only bad news for farmers, but they are also bad news for everyone who eats.  According to a new study published in the journal Nature, it is going to become harder and more expensive to feed a more crowded and hungrier world.

Specifically, under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, six key staple crops will see an 11.2% decline by the end of the century, compared to a world without warming.  The largest drops won’t be in the poorer, more marginal farmlands, but rather in places that are major food producers.  These are places like the US Midwest that has long benefited by having both good soil and ideal weather for raising crops like corn and soy.

When the weather is not ideal, it can drastically reduce agricultural productivity.  Extreme weather in many places has already damaged crops.  Flooding has destroyed rice in Tajikistan, cucumbers in Spain, and bananas in Australia.  Severe storms in the US this spring caused millions of dollars’ worth of damage to crops.

As the climate changes, rising average temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are likely to diminish yields and extreme weather events like droughts and floods could wipe out harvests more often.  As climate change intensifies, agriculture is the most weather-affected sector of the economy.

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How climate change will worsen hunger

Photo, posted may 20, 2011, courtesy of Lance Cheung / USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Living in a warming world

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As global temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, communities around the world face more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. These growing climate pressures not only strain infrastructure and natural resources, but also play a critical role in shaping where people live. 

Recent projections from the First Street Foundation, which analyzes climate risks across the United States, highlight just how significant these shifts could be. In Sacramento County, California, rising flood risks, declining air quality, and soaring insurance costs could lead to a population decline of up to 28% by 2055. The risk assessment also projects that Monmouth and Ocean counties in New Jersey could each lose more than 30% of their populations. And Fresno County, California, could see nearly half of its residents relocate due to mounting climate-related pressures.

Urban areas like cities, towns, and suburbs are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.  Cities become significantly hotter due to the abundance of heat-absorbing surfaces and lack of green spaces, which intensifies heatwaves, worsens conditions for vulnerable populations, and may ultimately force some people to move.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of climate solutions focused on both mitigation and adaptation. Solutions like expanding green infrastructure with urban parks and green roofs, and promoting sustainable development through energy-efficient buildings and transit-friendly design could all play a vital role in strengthening climate resilience.

As the planet warms, where we live – and how we live there – is rapidly being redefined.

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The 12th National Risk Assessment

Solar on farmland

Photo, posted May 15, 2013, courtesy of Germán Poo-Caamaño via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Nature: An important climate ally

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Nature is often seen as a victim of climate change, but it’s also one of the most powerful tools we have to fight it. Natural ecosystems, such as forests, wetlands, grasslands, oceans, and soils, absorb and store massive amounts of carbon dioxide. These ecosystems not only help reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but they also regulate temperatures and provide buffers against extreme weather.

One of the most effective strategies for mitigating climate change is simply protecting and restoring these natural areas. For example, mangrove forests – those coastal wetlands filled with tangled, salt-tolerant trees – sequester carbon at high rates and help protect coastal communities from storm surges and rising seas.  Peatlands – another type of wetland – store more carbon than all the world’s forests combined – despite only covering 3% of Earth’s land surface.  Global restoration efforts are underway, from replanting mangroves in Southeast Asia to rewetting degraded peatlands in Europe.

Creating urban green spaces like parks and community gardens, restoring forests through native tree plantings, and adopting sustainable agricultural practices like cover cropping and agroforestry are all proven to be low-cost, high-impact climate solutions. 

While nature-based solutions are gaining recognition, they remain critically underfunded, according to a recent United Nations report.  Closing this gap is essential to unlocking nature’s  full climate potential.

Investing in nature isn’t just about preserving Earth’s natural beauty.  It’s a practical strategy for building a more resilient and sustainable future.

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Mangrove forests and rising seas

Financing Nature-based Solutions for a better future

Finding peatlands

The Importance Of Urban Green Spaces

Photo, posted October 23, 2011, courtesy of the Everglades National Park / NPS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Feeding the future

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Climate change is already affecting the yields of major staple crops around the world, and researchers warn that the impacts will become more severe over time. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events are disrupting growing seasons and reducing agricultural productivity.

Addressing these growing threats requires rethinking how we grow, distribute, and consume food.  To kick off Climate Solutions Week, we wanted to examine some solutions that could make food systems more resilient, sustainable, and adaptable to our rapidly changing environment.

One solution is Climate-Smart Agriculture, which blends traditional practices with modern techniques to boost productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Methods like zero tillage, intercropping, and crop diversification could improve soil health, conserve water, and help farms withstand climate extremes.

Expanding the production of highly nutritious and climate resilient food crops – like millet, sorghum, teff, quinoa, chickpeas, and tepary beans – will also have an important role to play.  At the same time, reducing food waste through better storage, labeling, and surplus food re-use could help meet demand without increasing production pressure.

Agriculture is the largest user of freshwater globally, and climate change is intensifying water shortages.  Farmers will need to transition to water-efficient farming practices, including drip irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and the reuse of treated wastewater. 

Together, these solutions could help revolutionize the global food system to both feed a growing population and help protect the planet. 

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Climate-smart agriculture

Water for Prosperity and Peace

A Food For The Future

Photo, posted October 16, 2011, courtesy of Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Solar on farmland

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New studies have found that devoting a small percentage of U.S. farmland to producing solar power would benefit both the country’s energy system and its farmers.

Currently, about 46,000 square miles of farmland – about the area of Pennsylvania – is being used to grow corn to make ethanol.  One study looked at the impact of using some of this land for solar power instead of corn ethanol.

Not much of all this farmland is close enough to electrical transmission lines to be practical for utility solar power.  In fact, only about 1,500 square miles fits the bill.  But if even this small fraction of the corn growing land was used instead for solar power, it would generate as much energy each year than from all of the farms growing corn for fuel.

Solar installations on farms are helpful for farmers as well.  The land beneath the panels can be used to grow wildflowers that attracts the bees, wasps, and other insects needed to pollinate crops in the nearby fields.  In addition, the solar arrays provide a steady income stream for farmers.

In some places, farmers can earn substantially more from leasing their land for solar than from growing crops.  But a study of farms in California suggests that the best option is to do both.  Farmers who both grow crops and host solar arrays can have more financial security than those who do just one or the other.  The income from solar arrays is pretty predictable and is paid throughout the year.  Income from crops can drop off from, for example, a seasonal drought, or from extreme weather events.

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To Help Growers and the Grid, Build Solar on Farmland, Research Says

Photo, posted June 9, 2016, courtesy of Matt Lavin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Vegetation and climate change

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Temperatures have been steadily rising around the world as a result of the increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.  This warming trend has led to more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and other extreme weather events.  Rising temperatures are also impacting human health, leading to increased risks of heat-related illnesses and a higher number of fatalities during extreme heat events.

One simple but effective way to reduce the health risks from extreme heat is to increase urban vegetation.  According to new research led by scientists from Monash University in Australia, increasing urban vegetation by 30% could save more than one-third of all heat-related deaths.  The study, which was recently published in The Lancet Planetary Health, examined more than 11,000 urban areas and found that increasing greenery could have saved up to 1.16 million lives worldwide between 2000 and 2019.

The impact of increasing urban vegetation on heat-related deaths varies by climate, greenness, socioeconomic, and demographic factors, with the greatest benefits seen in Southern Asia, Eastern Europe, and Eastern Asia. 

Vegetation has a cooling effect on temperature.  Vegetation helps regulate the Earth’s climate by absorbing carbon dioxide during photosynthesis, which helps to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Vegetation also cools the environment through shading, moisture release, and evapotranspiration, which reduces temperatures and mitigates heat-related health risks.

Incorporating more vegetation into urban areas is a powerful solution to mitigate the impacts of climate change and protect human health.

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Increasing urban vegetation could have saved over 1.1m lives in two decades

Photo, posted July 1, 2023, courtesy of Lauri via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Soaring coffee prices

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Wholesale coffee prices hit record highs in the midst of the Trump administration’s deportation and tariff dispute with Colombia.  But coffee prices have already been trading near 50-year highs for a while as a result of shortages related to extreme weather and increased global demand.

In recent years, repeated droughts and flooding have put pressure on the global supply of coffee.  These climate swings have caused prices to soar, much as they have for other staples like cocoa, olive oil, and orange juice.  All the while, the global demand for coffee has kept rising.

Coffee is one of the world’s most consumed beverages, but it can be grown only under very specific conditions, namely in misty, humid, and tropical climates, and in rich soil free of disease.   The United States imports nearly all of its coffee – there is only a small amount grown in Hawaii.  Otherwise, the US is the world’s largest coffee importer.  With a limited number of sources for the beans, global coffee prices are very susceptible to the effects of extreme weather.

More than half of the world’s coffee production comes from arabica beans, and Brazil is the largest exporter.  A severe drought there this summer devastated the harvest that typically runs from May to September.   In Vietnam, a severe drought followed by heavy rains harmed the world’s largest source of robusta, the second most popular coffee variety.

People tend to think of coffee as a commodity and not so much as an agricultural product, subject to the vagaries of weather and having prices that fluctuate accordingly.  The bottom line is that drinking coffee is likely to become a bigger strain on one’s own bottom line.

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Why Coffee Prices Are Soaring (Again)

Photo, posted October 13, 2023, courtesy of Pete via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Drying rivers and hydropower

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A decade ago, Ecuador began a major transition to using hydroelectric power.  Like in many other South American countries, the presence of abundant rivers could supply large amounts of energy and drive economic expansion and lead to a new era of prosperity.

This ambitious plan has run into the impacts of climate change.  An extraordinary drought has engulfed much of South America, drying rivers and reservoirs, and has put Ecuador’s power grid on the brink of collapse. 

Since September, daily energy cuts in Ecuador have lasted as long as 14 hours.  An industry group says that the nation is losing $12 million in productivity and sales for every hour the power is out.  Just a few years ago, Ecuador was making great strides in reducing poverty.  Now, as the energy crisis has increased its grip on the country, much of what was achieved is being lost.

Ecuador’s situation is not unique.  In recent years, abnormally dry weather in multiple places has resulted in extreme low water levels in rivers, reducing hydropower resources in Norway, Canada, Turkey, and even rainforest-rich Costa Rica.

Overall, more than one billion people live in countries where more than half of their energy comes from hydroelectric plants.  With a warming climate and increasing incidence of extreme weather events like drought, it is likely that hydropower will become a less reliable energy source.  More than a quarter of all hydroelectric dams are in places with a medium to high risk of water scarcity by 2050. 

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The Rivers Run Dry and the Lights Go Out: A Warming Nation’s Doom Loop

Photo, posted January 15, 2020, courtesy of Pedro Szekely via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

When is a heat wave just a heat wave?

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There are lots of extreme weather events of all kinds these days.  But there have always been extreme weather events.  Climate change results in more extreme weather but not all extreme weather should be attributed to climate change.  So, how do we know if an extreme weather event is a result of the changing climate?  Communities that are affected by extreme weather events need to know whether they are likely to see more such events in the future, or if they are anomalies like a “500-year storm” or such.

Researchers at North Carolina State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Princeton University developed a routine process for evaluating extreme weather events.

The test case was an extreme heat wave that affected Texas and Louisiana in 2023.  This notable heat wave lasted almost the entire summer. The scientists used a two-step process to determine whether the heat wave was an anomaly or part of a new pattern.  They took historical data from the past 100 years to see how unusual 2023 was.  Then they compared that data with both past and present predictive computer models.  Comparing the predictive models can indicate whether climate change was a factor in the event.

In this case, a similar drought would not have been as hot 50 years earlier, which indicates that the heat wave is related to climate change and that even more intense heat waves are likely to occur in the future.

This sort of information is important for communities to prepare for future events.

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When is a Heat Wave Just a Heat Wave, and When is it Climate Change?

Photo, posted July 22, 2006, courtesy of Saturnism via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Limiting global warming

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A pressing question from the recently concluded 29th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference in Azerbaijan is how to transition away from fossil fuels and speed up climate mitigation in line with the 1.5 °C global warming target.

Keeping global average temperatures below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is crucial to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, including extreme weather, rising seas, biodiversity loss, and disruptions to food and water security. 

According to a new study by researchers from Stockholm University, Chalmers University of Technology, and Uppsala University in Sweden, it is still possible to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.  But the study found that the United States, the European Union, and 16 other countries will have to exceed their own current targets in order to achieve this global goal.  

The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Communications, introduced an “additional carbon accountability” indicator, which quantifies countries’ responsibility for mitigation and carbon dioxide removal in addition to achieving their own targets.

The study identified 18 countries that should be accountable for increasing their ambitions to stay within their equal per capita share of the global carbon budget for 1.5 °C.  Additional carbon accountability is highest for the United States and China, and highest per capita for the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S.

Failure to limit global warming risks catastrophic impacts of climate change.

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COP29: Possible to limit climate change to 1.5°C – if EU and 17 other countries go beyond their own targets

Photo, posted December 27, 2015, courtesy of Gerry Machen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A sustainable and climate-friendly food

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Researchers predict that climate change will negatively impact the yield and nutritional quality of most staple food crops, including rice, corn, and soybeans, due to factors like extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and altered precipitation patterns, potentially leading to reduced food security globally.   

As a result, many experts contend that alternative food sources – like insect farming and seaweed aquaculture – are part of the solution.  Additionally, expanding production of climate resilient food crops will also have an important role to play in global food security.

According to a new international study led by researchers from University of Vienna in Austria, chickpeas – also known as garbanzo beans – are a drought-resistant legume plant with a high protein content that can help combat food insecurity amid climate change.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Plant Biotechnology, the researchers investigated the natural variations of different chickpea genotypes and their resistance to drought stress and achieved promising results.  The research team managed to grow many different chickpea varieties under drought stress in a field experiment outside of Vienna. The results demonstrate that chickpeas are a great alternative legume plant that can complement grain farming systems in urban areas.

The study highlights how the decline of plant genetic diversity poses a major threat to plant productivity and harvests.  In fact, while there are approximately 7,000 edible crops, two-thirds of global food production is based on just nine crop species. 

According to the research team, highly nutritious and drought-resistant legumes such as chickpeas are a “food of the future.”

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Chickpeas – sustainable and climate-friendly foods of the future

Photo, posted March 21, 2020, courtesy of Ajay Suresh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric cars and power outages

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As more and more cars are powered by electricity instead of gasoline, people are beginning to worry about what happens during power outages caused by storms and other disruptive events.  It is easy to jump to the conclusion that this is a brand-new problem for drivers.  However, when electricity goes out over a sizeable area, most gas pumps stop working and it isn’t easy to keep gas cars running either.

Electric cars are often charged at home every day and such cars are more likely to be almost fully charged than nearly depleted at any time.  For those drivers, a power failure is unlikely to be much of a concern unless it persists for a very lengthy period.  On road trips, unless a power outage extends over a very wide area, one can probably get to a charger that is still operating.

Nonetheless, the federal government has commissioned researchers at Iowa State University to study potential solutions to possible difficulties in keeping electric cars running during power failures.  The goal of the study is to find ways to reduce the outage frequency of chargers by 75% and the power restoration time by 50%.

The study will evaluate the resiliency of charging stations in extreme weather events and identify ways to quickly restore power to charging stations in the event of outages.  Included are onsite solar power and battery storage at chargers as well as redundant power lines from different electrical substations.  There is even the possibility  of trucks delivering pre-charged batteries to charging stations after a storm.  Identifying and developing technologies to improve the resilience of charging stations is an important goal as the transition to electric vehicles continues.

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Researchers working to keep electric vehicles charging, even when the lights go out

Photo, posted July 29, 2013, courtesy of Jeff Cooper via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Olive oil and climate change

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Olive oil is a liquid fat obtained by mashing whole olives and extracting the oil.  A superfood staple of the Mediterranean diet, olive oil is used in kitchens around the world for frying, sauteing, baking, and as a condiment.  It can also be widely found in cosmetics, soaps, and pharmaceutical products. 

Globally, 2.6 million tons of olive oil were consumed last year.  Spain is currently the world’s largest producer of this “liquid gold,” accounting for 44% of global production.  The second largest producer of olive oil is Italy, followed by Greece, Tunisia, Turkey, and Morocco.   

But recently, the price of olive oil has been rocketing up.  Droughts, wildfires, floods, and heat waves, combined with pests, have punished olive-producing regions around the world.  The climate-fueled extreme weather has significantly impacted olive oil production in southern Europe.  Olive trees are exceedingly vulnerable to climate change. 

Spain, for example, typically produces somewhere between 1.3 to 1.5 million metric tons of olive oil each harvest.  However, officials expect a production range of only 830,000 to 850,000 metric tons this season. 

This shortage has sent prices soaring.  According to the International Monetary Fund, the average price of olive oil has doubled over the past two years.  In fact, the price is currently hovering at or around $10,000 per metric ton.  And there doesn’t seem to be much relief in sight.  

The record-breaking price has also unsurprisingly fueled a surge in crime, with criminals targeting supermarkets, oil mills, and olive groves. 

The changing climate continues to threaten food security around the world. 

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‘Liquid gold’: An olive oil shortage is fueling record prices and food insecurity fears

Extra virgin olive oil prices tipped to top £16 a litre next month

Photo, posted October 29, 2015, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Artificial reefs

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The coral reefs that surround tropical islands are a refuge for a wide variety of marine life and also form a natural buffer against stormy seas.  The changing climate is bleaching coral reefs and breaking them down.  Extreme weather events are becoming more common and are threatening coastal communities with flooding and erosion.

Researchers at MIT are designing architected reefs – sustainable offshore structures that mimic the wave-buffering effects of natural reefs and can also provide habitats for fish and other marine life.

There are already artificial reefs in a number of places used to protect coastlines.  These are typically made from sunken ships, retired oil and gas platforms, and even assemblies of concrete, metal, car tires, and stones.  Generally, it takes quite a lot of material to form an effective barrier to waves.

The MIT group has developed a cylindrical structure surrounded by four rudder-like slats.  Their experiments have shown that when this structure stands in the way of a wave, it efficiently breaks the wave and creates turbulent jets that dissipate the energy in the wave.  The engineers calculated that the new design could reduce as much wave energy as existing artificial reefs but use 10 times less material.

Based on the initial experiments with lab-scale prototypes, these artificial reefs would reduce the energy of incoming waves by more than 95%.

Coral reefs are only found in tropical waters, whereas these artificial reefs don’t depend on temperature and could be placed along any coastline for protection.  In a time of rising seas and increasingly frequent storms, these artificial reefs may be just what coastlines need.

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Artificial reef designed by MIT engineers could protect marine life, reduce storm damage

Photo, posted December 9, 2010, courtesy of Phoenix Wolf-Ray via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Winegrowing regions and climate change

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Grapes grown to make wine are sensitive to climate conditions including temperatures and amount of rainfall.  The warming climate is already having visible effects on yields, grape composition, and the quality of wine.  This has significant consequences on the geography of wine production and is of major concern for the $350 billion global industry.

Winegrowing regions are mostly at the mid-latitudes where temperatures are warm enough to allow grapes to ripen but not excessively hot.  The climates are relatively dry so that fungal diseases are not rampant.

Because of the warming climate, harvesting in most vineyards now begins two or three weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago and this affects the grapes and the resultant wines.  Temperature changes affect acidity, wine alcohol, and aromatic signatures.

If global temperature rise crosses the 2-degree level, 90% of all traditional winegrowing areas throughout Spain, Italy, Greece, and southern California may become unable to produce high-quality wines.  Conversely, areas of northern France, the states of Washington and Oregon, British Columbia, and Tasmania will see improved conditions for producing quality wines. 

As the climate warms, winegrowers face new challenges such as the emergence of new diseases and pests as well as an increasing number of extreme weather events.  Wine producers are using more drought-resistant grape varieties and are adopting management methods that better preserve soil water.

The changing climate poses many threats to the quality of wines produced in traditional vineyards.  In the future, the wine industry may look very different in terms of where and how the best wines are produced. 

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A global map of how climate change is changing winegrowing regions

Photo, posted November 14, 2008, courtesy of Curtis Foreman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The hottest year on record

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Barring some sort of massive global deep freeze late in the year, it was increasingly obvious by November that 2023 was going to be the hottest year ever recorded.  After analyzing data that showed the world saw its warmest ever November, experts around the world made the call early in December.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, from January to November 2023, global average temperatures were the highest on record – 1.46 degrees Celsius or 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average.  Given that the Paris Climate Accord has the goal of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2023 has been an alarmingly hot year.

November itself was 1.75 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average.  The average surface air temperature for the planet was 14.22 degrees Celsius or about 57.6 degrees Fahrenheit.  Now 57 degrees doesn’t sound all that warm, but we are not accustomed to thinking in terms of the average temperature for the entire planet.  Keep in mind that the planetary average includes Antarctica and the polar north. The year as a whole had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons. 

There is no reason to hope that the warming in 2023 was an anomalous occurrence and that 2024 is apt to be cooler.  With an El Niño in place in the Pacific, the new year might even be warmer than the previous one.  With continued warming, extreme weather events are likely to become even more frequent and intense, exacerbating the damage and loss of life from droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires.

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2023 is officially the hottest year ever recorded, and scientists say “the temperature will keep rising”

Photo, posted June 7, 2012, courtesy of NASA/Kathryn Hansen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

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The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe.  According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent.  When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse.  They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor.  The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries.   They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality.  Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years.  With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why Was the Summer So Hot? | Earth Wise

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Many places around the world have experienced extraordinary heat waves this summer.  The 31 days of high temperatures 110 degrees or more in Phoenix is a prime example but many other places suffered from extreme and relentless heat.  Why did this happen?

The overarching reason is climate change, which has warmed the Earth by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the preindustrial era.  This change on a global level is enough to make heatwaves far more likely.  For example, the concurrent heatwaves in Europe and North America were 1000 times more likely to have occurred because of climate change.

But there hasn’t been a sudden increase in global temperature that would make this summer so much hotter.  Instead, what really has happened is three other factors all came into play at the same time.

The first is the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai, which is an underwater volcano in the South Pacific.  That eruption did not produce much in the way of planet-cooling aerosols in the atmosphere.  Instead, it vaporized huge amounts of seawater, sending water vapor into the atmosphere, which helps trap heat.

The second is a change in the amount of energy radiating from the sun.  That actually rises and falls a small amount every 11 years.  Currently, it is in the upswing and will reach its next peak in 2025.

Finally, there is the arrival of the El Niño in the Pacific, whose balmy ocean waters radiate heat into the air.

The combination of all these factors when added to the already warming climate is a recipe for temperatures to soar to uncharted highs.  We can expect more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods, and other sorts of extreme weather.

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It’s Not Just Climate Change: Three Other Factors Driving This Summer’s Extreme Heat

Photo, posted February 27, 2017, courtesy of Giuseppe Milo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

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Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average.  In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events.  The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea.   Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature.  On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm.  Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict.  The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes.   There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

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Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record European Heat | Earth Wise

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The new year began with record-breaking heat across Europe.  In fact, on December 31 and January 1, about 5,000 all-time high temperature records for those dates were broken, in some cases by margins of more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit.

On New Year’s Day, eight European countries recorded their warmest January day ever. These were Liechtenstein, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, Belarus, Lithuania, Denmark, and Latvia.

Many of the European cities affected by the heat wave would ordinarily be covered in snow at that time of year.  For example, Vaduz, the capital of Liechtenstein, the Czech town of Javornik, and the Polish village of Jodlownik, all recorded peak temperatures between 66 and 68 degrees Fahrenheit.

By the measure of how far above normal temperatures rose, it was the most extreme heat wave in European history.  Last summer saw record-breaking heat waves across much of Europe, but the actual temperature increases over normal were smaller than what just occurred at the beginning of the year.

The source of the exceptional heat was a warm mass of air from the west coast of Africa moving across Europe.  As is the case for any individual weather event, one cannot definitively attribute this one to climate change.  However, it is abundantly clear that because of climate change, extreme weather events of all types are becoming more frequent and more intense.

The unprecedented European weather does have the effect of helping to ease the energy crisis that has gripped the European continent.   The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to soaring natural gas prices.  The warm weather has meant a lower demand for gas, causing gas prices to drop to their lowest level since the start of the war.

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‘Uncharted territory’: January heat records smashed across Europe

Photo, posted August 13, 2019, courtesy of Herbert Frank via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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