According to new analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sales of gas-powered cars may well have peaked in 2017, representing a significant milestone in the transition to electric vehicles.
Demand for gas cars dropped in 2018 and 2019, and then plummeted in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. While sales are surely picking up as the pandemic ebbs, the increasing demand (and supply as well) for plug-in vehicles is likely to put gas-powered cars in a state of permanent decline.
Global EV sales are projected to go from 3.1 million last year to 14 million in 2025. The growth is being driven by falling battery prices, government policies, and increasing choices of vehicles. Virtually all automobile manufacturers are introducing electric vehicles over the next couple of years and increasing numbers of them are planning a complete transition to EVs in the near future. Projections are that EVs will account for the majority of new car sales by 2035.
While all this progress is encouraging, there are still over a billion gas- and diesel-powered cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly. The current average operating life of cars here in the US is 12 years.
To reach the net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050 as many governments have mandated, additional policies and regulations will be needed. For example, electric cars will need to account for essentially all new sales by 2035, not just the majority. Reaching net-zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, including trucks and heavy commercial vehicles that have barely started to become electrified.
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New Analysis Suggests We Have Already Hit Peak Internal Combustion Engine
Photo, posted December 23, 2017, courtesy of Davide Gambino via Flickr.
Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.
Please allow me to point out the elephant in the room. A number of people seem to be dragging their feet in regards to the electrification of vehicles. This might be due to people’s resistance to change. Of course, some of this might be ‘old dogs’. However, some resistance might stem from economic uncertainty. For example, the fellow who runs oil barges on the Mississippi is starting to feel a bit nervous. How is he going to haul electricity? People who are charged with maintaining pipelines are getting skittish for similar reasons. California is going to outlaw the sales of internal combustion engines by 2035 (as you know). But what if the transition is less than complete? California sets the template, and EVENTUALLY, others follow. How do we go about sorting the people who’ve grown quite fond of ‘Bessy’? (thus stretching the ‘Ole girl’s’ lifespan beyond ‘twelve years’, think: Jay Leno’s Duesenberg, not the greatest example, but there it is). I live in a village where a ca. 1950 ALCO locomotive runs through daily. This locomotive can run on algae with no modifications whatsoever. Batteries STILL have energy density issues (we’re making progress since John Goodenough’s nifty invention in 1992, …in the form of the lithium ion battery). As we proceed with the necessary research towards electrification, might I suggest that we pursue other avenues as well. Eventually, it will dawn upon the collective that electric cars (although they’re rather expensive) possess motors with only one moving part. Part of the reason for their over ninety percent efficiency ratings. In the meantime, I feel that it might be an idea to reconsider what we’re putting in internal combustion engines in the first place. (as in biofuels, which require more research, probably) This gives the for mentioned tug boat operator something to haul, along with something, a bit greener to pump through pipelines. Along with something healthy for Jay Leno to feed his Duesenberg. Perhaps, ‘putting algae in the ALCO’ is an idea that has its attractions. I’m of the belief that we need to move the needle in every way we can! …If you’ve read this, thanks! -David