new cars

Electric cars: Boom or bust?

September 25, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Media coverage of electric cars in this country is pretty confusing. Are electric cars taking over or has the EV bubble burst?

EVs currently represent about 8% of the US new car market. But they continue to face some relatively unique headwinds in this country. A very powerful and influential oil industry makes sure that anti-EV stories occupy center stage in the media. Traditional car dealers don’t want to sell EVs because they don’t make much money from parts and service. And EVs often find themselves tangled up in American politics.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world tells a very different story. Globally, EVs constitute 20% of new car sales, but in some places, they are doing much better than that.

So far this year, almost 87% of new car sales in Norway are electric and in August, the figure was 94%. Norway has some incentives in place for EV owners, but the fact that nearly all new cars on the road are electric is far more than the result of incentives.

One might argue that Norway, a country with only 5 million people, faces a much easier task of transitioning to EVs. But how about China with its 1.4 billion people? In July, plug-in vehicles in China were 51% of new auto sales. And the numbers continue to rise.

There are plenty of articles out there explaining why electric cars just can’t meet people’s needs, have insurmountable problems, and how having too many of them would collapse electric grids and otherwise wreak havoc with society. Apparently, the Norwegians and Chinese, among a growing number of other countries, haven’t gotten the memo.

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Elbil Thinks Electric Car Sales In Norway Could Hit 100% By Next Year

Photo, posted July 27, 2024, courtesy of Amaury Laporte via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Who’s driving electric?

April 3, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Electric cars are growing in popularity around the world and are expected to represent 20% of new car sales this year. In some places, they have a much bigger share: 38% in China and a whopping 82% in Norway. Here in the U.S., things are more complicated.

Last year, EVs represented 8.5% of U.S. new car sales while hybrids accounted for an additional 10%. But enthusiasm for plug-in vehicles was by no means universal or consistent across the country or across various segments of the population.

Overall, the West Coast, and especially California, dominated the electric vehicle market. Electric vehicles accounted for more than 30% of new car sales in the San Francisco Bay Area. In Los Angeles, the number was close to 25%.

A number of metro areas elsewhere also had strong EV sales, including Denver, Las Vegas, Washington DC, Austin, and Phoenix. New York City had almost 10% EV registrations.

Americans buying electric cars so far tend to be richer, younger, and more likely to live in urban areas than the average person and are often motivated by environmental concerns. Meanwhile, about half of American adults say they are not likely to consider purchasing an EV as their next car and that figure rises to 70% for Republicans.

Lack of interest in EVs is often based on concerns about the availability of sufficient charging options or high EV prices, although those are dropping. There is also concern about EV efficiency in colder climates, although the Norwegians clearly don’t find it to be a problem.

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Electric Vehicles

Photo, posted October 18, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

One in five cars will be electric this year

February 12, 2024 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There has been lots of turbulence in the electric car industry of late. Part of it is aggressive publicity campaigns spreading misinformation and part of it is the natural fits and starts associated with major change. But apart from the ups and downs of individual companies and countries, analysts are projecting another record year for the sales of electric vehicles and are expecting that plug-in cars will account for 20% of all car sales globally. Much of the growth will be driven by China, where 38% of new car sales will be electric cars.

Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21% this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Total projected sales are 16.7 million cars, including 1.9 million in the U.S., 3.4 million in Europe, and 9.7 million in China. Because of the rapid adoption of electric cars in China, that country is expected to reach peak gasoline demand this year. In other words, the use of gasoline in China will be diminishing from now on.

The auto industry is in flux. The traditional big automakers are currently slowing down EV manufacturing as they work to come up to speed with the technology and market demand. Meanwhile, EV-only carmakers such as Tesla in the U.S. and BYD in China are ratcheting up production. BYD is focusing on emerging economies with its lower-priced offerings.

In the U.S., EV adoption has been slowed somewhat by high interest rates and the slow rollout of EVs by the Big Three automakers. But many new vehicles by a growing list of automakers will provide customers with more and more choices of EVs to suit diverse tastes and needs.

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This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Photo, posted November 18, 2023, courtesy of RL via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars In Norway | Earth Wise

June 12, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

We are at a relatively early stage of the electric car revolution. EV sales are increasing rapidly, but they still comprise only a small fraction of the cars on American roads. So, there is still lots of speculation and argument about how things will actually work when a large fraction of cars are electric. But there is at least one place where one doesn’t have to speculate: Norway.

Last year, 80% of new-car sales in Norway were EVs. That country is essentially an observatory for figuring out what the electrification of vehicles will mean for the environment, workers, and life in general. In fact, sales of internal combustion cars in Norway will end in 2025.

Based on Norway’s experience, electric vehicles bring benefits and none of the dire consequences that some critics predict. The transition isn’t problem-free. There have been unreliable chargers and long waits during periods of high demand. Auto dealers and retailers have had to adapt to the changes in their businesses. The pecking order of car brands has changed dramatically making Tesla the best-selling brand and marginalizing long-established carmakers like Renault and Fiat.

But in the bigger picture, the air in Oslo, the capital of Norway, is measurably cleaner. The city is quieter as noisy gasoline and diesel vehicles gradually disappear. Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 30% since 2009. Meanwhile, there hasn’t been mass unemployment among gas station workers, and the electrical grid has not collapsed.

Norway is perhaps 10 years ahead of us with respect to electric cars. There are still problems to solve, and difficulties to overcome, but so far, it looks like it will all turn out well.

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In Norway, the Electric Vehicle Future Has Already Arrived

Photo, posted October 15, 2018, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Banning Gas-Powered Cars | Earth Wise

September 30, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In June, the European Union voted to ban the sale of new gas- and diesel-powered vehicles starting in 2035. The EU joined Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and several other countries in imposing future gas car bans.

Here in the U.S., on August 25th, California adopted rules banning the sales of new gas-powered cars and light trucks by 2035. New York passed a similar law last year and its ban will also cover heavy trucks by 2045.

California’s action is particularly significant because there are other states that have trigger laws that impose their own bans based on what California does. Washington state, Massachusetts, and Virginia are in this category, although the governor of Virginia has said he plans to try to repeal the law.

An additional 12 states have policies tied to California’s and are likely to adopt their own versions of the 2035 ban. These are Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

When these regulatory actions are coupled with the major investments in electric vehicles being made by virtually all automakers, the transition to electric vehicles appears to be inevitable.

As far as people who love their gas-powered cars are concerned, the new rules only apply to new car sales. So, consumers can still buy and own used cars that run on gasoline. If there are states that never impose bans on new gas-powered vehicles, then consumers can go to those states and buy one, assuming there are any being made at that point. It seems likely that gas-powered cars will end up being made for hobbyists and aficionados only.

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California Just Banned Gas-Powered Cars. Here’s Everything You Need to Know

Photo, posted May 20, 2018, courtesy of James Loesch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Banning Gas Cars | Earth Wise

November 12, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The transition to electric vehicles from gas-powered vehicles is essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as air pollution in general. Currently, transportation is responsible for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.

There is no doubt that there is surging interest in electric cars. There are now millions of them being sold around the world each year. But they still represent a small fraction of new car sales in most places. Notable exceptions are several European countries such as Norway and Switzerland where plug-in vehicles are dominant. In the United States, on the other hand, EVs still represent less than 3% of new car sales.

Given the urgency in reducing vehicle emissions, many countries around the world have devised plans, goals, or laws to end the sale of gasoline cars. Gas car bans vary quite a bit around the world, but they are being implemented in many places.

There are 28 countries and US states that have imposed gas car bans to take effect over the next five to 20 years. These include European countries like Norway, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Sweden, Scotland, Slovenia, the UK, France, and Spain. Asian countries include South Korea, India, Japan, China, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan. In the Middle East, Israel and Egypt have announced bans. Here in the US, New York and California both have bans starting in 2035. Canada also has announced a ban.

Car manufacturers have seen the writing on the wall. Most have started adding EVs to their lineups. Many have announced their own timetables for phasing out gas cars entirely. There are more than 15 new electric models available this year and there are many more to follow next year.

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Over 25 Countries And U.S. States Are Planning to Ban Gasoline Powered Cars

Photo, posted January 24, 2009, courtesy of Oran Viriyincy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Have We Reached Peak Internal Combustion Engine? | Earth Wise

August 3, 2021 By EarthWise 1 Comment

According to new analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sales of gas-powered cars may well have peaked in 2017, representing a significant milestone in the transition to electric vehicles.

Demand for gas cars dropped in 2018 and 2019, and then plummeted in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. While sales are surely picking up as the pandemic ebbs, the increasing demand (and supply as well) for plug-in vehicles is likely to put gas-powered cars in a state of permanent decline.

Global EV sales are projected to go from 3.1 million last year to 14 million in 2025. The growth is being driven by falling battery prices, government policies, and increasing choices of vehicles. Virtually all automobile manufacturers are introducing electric vehicles over the next couple of years and increasing numbers of them are planning a complete transition to EVs in the near future. Projections are that EVs will account for the majority of new car sales by 2035.

While all this progress is encouraging, there are still over a billion gas- and diesel-powered cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly. The current average operating life of cars here in the US is 12 years.

To reach the net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050 as many governments have mandated, additional policies and regulations will be needed. For example, electric cars will need to account for essentially all new sales by 2035, not just the majority. Reaching net-zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, including trucks and heavy commercial vehicles that have barely started to become electrified.

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New Analysis Suggests We Have Already Hit Peak Internal Combustion Engine

Photo, posted December 23, 2017, courtesy of Davide Gambino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.