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Drying rivers and hydropower

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A decade ago, Ecuador began a major transition to using hydroelectric power.  Like in many other South American countries, the presence of abundant rivers could supply large amounts of energy and drive economic expansion and lead to a new era of prosperity.

This ambitious plan has run into the impacts of climate change.  An extraordinary drought has engulfed much of South America, drying rivers and reservoirs, and has put Ecuador’s power grid on the brink of collapse. 

Since September, daily energy cuts in Ecuador have lasted as long as 14 hours.  An industry group says that the nation is losing $12 million in productivity and sales for every hour the power is out.  Just a few years ago, Ecuador was making great strides in reducing poverty.  Now, as the energy crisis has increased its grip on the country, much of what was achieved is being lost.

Ecuador’s situation is not unique.  In recent years, abnormally dry weather in multiple places has resulted in extreme low water levels in rivers, reducing hydropower resources in Norway, Canada, Turkey, and even rainforest-rich Costa Rica.

Overall, more than one billion people live in countries where more than half of their energy comes from hydroelectric plants.  With a warming climate and increasing incidence of extreme weather events like drought, it is likely that hydropower will become a less reliable energy source.  More than a quarter of all hydroelectric dams are in places with a medium to high risk of water scarcity by 2050. 

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The Rivers Run Dry and the Lights Go Out: A Warming Nation’s Doom Loop

Photo, posted January 15, 2020, courtesy of Pedro Szekely via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The year in energy

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Last year saw some major trends in the global energy sector. Perhaps the most dramatic was the shift to renewable power, which continued to outpace the projections of both financial analysts and industry experts.  2024 saw new highs in renewable installation, largely due to China, which accounted for more than half of all the solar power installed globally.  Huge solar installations also came online in California and Nevada during the year.  On the other hand, the amount of coal burning for the year also exceeded expert predictions, also largely due to China.

A second trend was increasing sales of electric vehicles, which reached a new high, although short of expectations.  A major driving force in EV sales is the dropping price of lithium-ion batteries, which fell by 20% in 2024.  Again, China was a major factor with roughly half of all its domestic vehicle sales being electric.

Coal’s decline is being slowed by the rising demand for electricity.  The increased use of electric heating and cooling along with the increasing use of EVs are major factors.  But the proliferation of energy-hungry data centers incorporating artificial intelligence capabilities is driving up the demand for power even more. 

Perhaps the clearest indication of the future for global energy comes from investors, who put about $2 trillion into clean energy last year.  That is twice as much as invested in oil, coal, and natural gas.

The history of energy has seen the Age of Coal and the Age of Oil.  By all indications, we are now heading into the Age of Electricity.

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The Year in Energy in Four Charts

Photo, posted November 23, 2024, courtesy of Mussi Katz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

EV growth and oil demand

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There has been lots of talk recently about the transition to electric vehicles sputtering out.  Several automakers have delayed their EV programs citing reduced demand for the vehicles and lack of profitability.  In the bigger picture, the auto industry as a whole is in a rough patch as rising interest rates and other factors have reduced car buying.

Despite all this doom and gloom talk, sales of electric vehicles will hit an all-time high this year.  Adoption of EVs is accelerating more quickly than many people expected and government policies in China, the United States, and Europe have had a significant impact on vehicle sales.  In China, 37% of new cars sold last year were electric.  The country hit its 2025 target three years early and this year the figure could hit 45%.

But even as electric car sales rapidly increase, oil demand has continued to climb, reaching 100 million barrels a day, slightly more than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.  The International Energy Agency expects that oil demand will peak before the end of this decade, but oil consumption could remain strong for decades unless there is further policy action encouraging the transition away from it.

Some experts say that the IEA’s models don’t take into account how quickly the world is changing.  New emission rules are expected to speed the adoption of EVs and plug-in hybrids.  In addition, falling battery costs are making the economics of electric vehicles increasingly attractive.  If EV adoption accelerates more rapidly than these models predict, then oil consumption could drop much more quickly.

However, the oil industry is deeply embedded in modern life and is not likely to fade away without a fight.

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EV Sales Are Taking Off. Why Is Oil Demand Still Climbing?

Photo, posted September 9, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Who’s driving electric?

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Electric cars are growing in popularity around the world and are expected to represent 20% of new car sales this year.  In some places, they have a much bigger share:  38% in China and a whopping 82% in Norway.  Here in the U.S., things are more complicated.

Last year, EVs represented 8.5% of U.S. new car sales while hybrids accounted for an additional 10%.  But enthusiasm for plug-in vehicles was by no means universal or consistent across the country or across various segments of the population.

Overall, the West Coast, and especially California, dominated the electric vehicle market.  Electric vehicles accounted for more than 30% of new car sales in the San Francisco Bay Area.  In Los Angeles, the number was close to 25%.

A number of metro areas elsewhere also had strong EV sales, including Denver, Las Vegas, Washington DC, Austin, and Phoenix.  New York City had almost 10% EV registrations. 

Americans buying electric cars so far tend to be richer, younger, and more likely to live in urban areas than the average person and are often motivated by environmental concerns.  Meanwhile, about half of American adults say they are not likely to consider purchasing an EV as their next car and that figure rises to 70% for Republicans.

Lack of interest in EVs is often based on concerns about the availability of sufficient charging options or high EV prices, although those are dropping.  There is also concern about EV efficiency in colder climates, although the Norwegians clearly don’t find it to be a problem.

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Electric Vehicles

Photo, posted October 18, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

One in five cars will be electric this year

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There has been lots of turbulence in the electric car industry of late.  Part of it is aggressive publicity campaigns spreading misinformation and part of it is the natural fits and starts associated with major change.  But apart from the ups and downs of individual companies and countries, analysts are projecting another record year for the sales of electric vehicles and are expecting that plug-in cars will account for 20% of all car sales globally.  Much of the growth will be driven by China, where 38% of new car sales will be electric cars.

Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21% this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.  Total projected sales are 16.7 million cars, including 1.9 million in the U.S., 3.4 million in Europe, and 9.7 million in China.  Because of the rapid adoption of electric cars in China, that country is expected to reach peak gasoline demand this year.  In other words, the use of gasoline in China will be diminishing from now on.

The auto industry is in flux.  The traditional big automakers are currently slowing down EV manufacturing as they work to come up to speed with the technology and market demand.  Meanwhile, EV-only carmakers such as Tesla in the U.S. and BYD in China are ratcheting up production. BYD is focusing on emerging economies with its lower-priced offerings.

In the U.S., EV adoption has been slowed somewhat by high interest rates and the slow rollout of EVs by the Big Three automakers.  But many new vehicles by a growing list of automakers will provide customers with more and more choices of EVs to suit diverse tastes and needs.

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This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Photo, posted November 18, 2023, courtesy of RL via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global climate progress is too slow

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According to a new report by the World Resources Institute, the world is making progress on climate, but the progress is not fast enough.  The report looked at 37 indicators of climate progress towards the goals set forth by the Paris Agreement.  In some areas, the progress has been substantial, but in six areas, the world has been moving in the wrong direction entirely.

The rapid growth of clean energy has brought the world to the brink of peak fossil fuels, but to avoid the catastrophic effects of warming, countries need to build out wind and solar power nearly twice as fast and shut down coal plants seven times faster.  There has been progress in curbing deforestation, but the world needs to stem forest loss four times more quickly.  More work is needed to clean up heavy industry and the consumption of meat needs to be limited more than the present level.

Areas where things are getting worse rather than better include the use of public funds and subsidies for preserving the use of fossil fuels.  Because of wars and supply shocks affecting energy markets, countries have actually ramped up fossil fuel subsidies to combat rising prices.

One area where the world is moving at the pace required to meet climate goals is in the sales of electric vehicles.  EVs accounted for 10% of car sales globally last year and if trends continue, they are predicted to account for more than 75% of cars sold by 2030.

The faster-than-predicted progress on electric cars demonstrates that transformative change is possible and could happen in other areas.

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World Making Too Little Progress on Climate — Except on EV Sales, Report Finds

Photo, posted May 24, 2022, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Pollution From Tires | Earth Wise

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A few years ago, researchers investigating massive deaths of coho salmon in West Coast streams discovered that the water contained particles from vehicle tires.  The cause of the fish mortality turned out to be a chemical called 6PPD that is added to tires to prevent cracking and degradation.  The mystery was solved, but so far, the chemical continues to be used by all major tire manufacturers and is found on roads and in waterways around the world.

Worse still, the acute toxicity of 6PPD and the chemicals that it transforms into when exposed to ground-level ozone is only the tip of the tire pollution iceberg.  Tire rubber contains more than 400 chemicals and compounds, many of which are carcinogenic. 

About 2 billion tires are sold across the globe each year and that number is expected to reach 3.4 billion by 2030.  Tires are made from about 20% natural rubber and 24% synthetic rubber, which requires about 4 gallons of petroleum per tire.  Hundreds of other ingredients – including steel, fillers, heavy metals like copper, cadmium, lead, and zinc – make up the rest.

Tire wear particles are emitted continually as vehicles travel.  They range in size from visible pieces of rubber or plastic to microparticles.  Research has shown that a car’s four tires collectively emit half a trillion ultrafine particles per mile driven.  These particles are small enough to be breathed into the lungs and can travel throughout the body and even cross the blood-brain barrier.  Particle pollution from tires exceeds that from tailpipes.

Tire pollution is a huge problem that is just starting to receive the attention it deserves.

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Road Hazard: Evidence Mounts on Toxic Pollution from Tires

Photo, posted June 22, 2018, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Big Oil And Big Lithium | Earth Wise

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The world’s big oil companies have worked pretty hard to prolong society’s dependence on petroleum.  When there are trillions of dollars at stake, there is plenty of motivation.  But those companies do see the writing on the wall.

An Exxon Mobil-funded study last year estimated that light-duty vehicle demand for combustion engine fuels could peak in 2025 and that electric vehicles of various types could grow to more than 50% of new car sales by 2050.  This is pretty pessimistic compared with most other surveys, but it is still a big number.  Exxon also projected that the global fleet of EVs could reach 420 million by 2040.

As a result of all this, Exxon is preparing for a future far less dependent on gasoline by drilling for lithium rather than oil.  The company recently purchased mining rights to a sizable chunk of Arkansas land for over $100 million from which it aims to produce lithium for electric car batteries.

Exxon’s consultants estimated that the 120,000 acres in the Smackover formation of southern Arkansas could have as much as 4 million tons of lithium carbonate, enough to power 50 million cars and trucks. 

Exxon plans to spend $17 billion through 2027 on cutting carbon emissions and developing low carbon technologies.  Other large oil producers have also been looking at the lithium business.  At the same time, some large oil companies like BP and Shell are investing in renewable energy.

The prospect of EVs dominating transportation in the coming decades is a strong incentive for oil-and-gas companies to adapt their businesses to the new world.

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Exxon Joins Hunt for Lithium in Bet on EV Boom

Photo, posted August 16, 2014, courtesy of Mike Mozart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars In Norway | Earth Wise

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We are at a relatively early stage of the electric car revolution.  EV sales are increasing rapidly, but they still comprise only a small fraction of the cars on American roads.  So, there is still lots of speculation and argument about how things will actually work when a large fraction of cars are electric.  But there is at least one place where one doesn’t have to speculate:  Norway.

Last year, 80% of new-car sales in Norway were EVs.  That country is essentially an observatory for figuring out what the electrification of vehicles will mean for the environment, workers, and life in general.  In fact, sales of internal combustion cars in Norway will end in 2025.

Based on Norway’s experience, electric vehicles bring benefits and none of the dire consequences that some critics predict.  The transition isn’t problem-free.  There have been unreliable chargers and long waits during periods of high demand.  Auto dealers and retailers have had to adapt to the changes in their businesses.  The pecking order of car brands has changed dramatically making Tesla the best-selling brand and marginalizing long-established carmakers like Renault and Fiat.

But in the bigger picture, the air in Oslo, the capital of Norway, is measurably cleaner.  The city is quieter as noisy gasoline and diesel vehicles gradually disappear.  Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 30% since 2009.  Meanwhile, there hasn’t been mass unemployment among gas station workers, and the electrical grid has not collapsed.

Norway is perhaps 10 years ahead of us with respect to electric cars.  There are still problems to solve, and difficulties to overcome, but so far, it looks like it will all turn out well.

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In Norway, the Electric Vehicle Future Has Already Arrived

Photo, posted October 15, 2018, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Explosive Growth Of Electric Vehicles | Earth Wise

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Not long ago, electric cars were a rarity.  Ten years ago, annual global sales of EVs were only a few hundred thousand.  As of today, globally, still less than one percent of all the cars on the road are electric.  But that is changing rapidly.

In fact, electric vehicles are expected to capture nearly 20% of the global market this year.  Global sales of EVs were 3 million in 2020 and 6.6 million in 2021.  Last year, sales of electric vehicles hit 10 million and are expected to reach 14 million this year according to the International Energy Agency.

Analysts at the IEA have had to repeatedly revise their projections for future EV sales as the numbers keep going up faster than predicted.  Last year, they projected that EVs would account for 21% of global sales by 2030.  Now, they expect that EVs will reach 35% of sales by that year.

In the US, the EU, and China, policy efforts are in place to boost EV sales.  In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act both supports the EV industry and subsidizes consumer purchases with tax credits. As a result of such policies, the IEA expects electric vehicles to account for 60% of sales across these three large markets by 2030.

Part of what is driving the boom in EV sales is that prices continue to come down for the vehicles.  When operating and maintenance costs are figured in, the EVs come out considerably cheaper to own.  In addition, there are starting to be price wars in the EV industry as competition heats up in the sector.

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EVs to Capture One-Fifth of Global Market This Year Amid ‘Explosive Growth’

Photo, posted May 7, 2022, courtesy of Sharon Hahn Darlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Offshore Wind In The Gulf Of Mexico | Earth Wise

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The US has a goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind energy capacity by 2030.  This is an ambitious goal given that the current installed offshore wind capacity in the US is a total of seven turbines capable of generating just 42 megawatts of power.  So, there is a long way to go in a relatively short amount of time.

Since 2021, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, a division of the Department of the Interior, has held three offshore wind lease auctions, which grant rights to developers to install offshore wind in specific marine areas.  The first two auctions involve sites in the northeast, including areas in New York.  The third auction, held last December, offered sites off the California Coast – the first US sites in the Pacific.

In February, the Department of the Interior proposed a new offshore wind lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico.  It identified a 102,480-acre area off the coast of Louisiana, and two similar-sized areas offshore from Galveston, Texas.

The proposal is now in a 60-day period of seeking public comments before deciding whether to move ahead with the sale.  As was the case for the other lease auctions, there would stipulations associated with accepted bids including efforts to build up domestic industry for the supply chain and labor force.  There would also be requirements to establish and contribute to a fisheries compensatory mitigation fund to address any potential negative impacts to the fishing industry.

About two-thirds of offshore wind resources in the US are located in deep-water areas that will require floating platforms.  A federal program called Floating Offshore Wind Shot has the goal of developing cost-effective technology for this purpose.

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Gulf of Mexico may be next up for offshore wind leases

Photo, posted May 13, 2011, courtesy of the Department of Energy and Climate Change via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars And Cleaner Air | Earth Wise

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Cities are awash in microscopic soot and other pollutants from the tailpipes of vehicles.  Apart from contributing substantially to the warming of the planet, these emissions have a significant impact on human health.  Research at Cornell University has determined that the continued growth of electric cars will lead to cleaner air and reduced human mortality in most if not all U.S. metropolitan areas.

The study, published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, estimated the health impact and consequential economic impact of cleaner air in American cities as a result of the transition to electric vehicles.

For example, by 2050, Los Angeles will have 1,163 fewer premature deaths annually, corresponding to $12.6 billion in economic health benefits.  Greater New York City could see 574 fewer deaths a year leading to $6.24 billion in associated economic gains.

Global sales of electric cars have grown steadily.  In 2016, they accounted for less than 1% of the market.  That share grew to 2.2% in 2018, 4.1% in 2020, and 6.6% in 2021.

In the U.S., electric cars accounted for 4.5% of sales in 2021, but in many cities, the numbers were much higher. 

These trends are likely to accelerate as a combination of government policies and major decisions by automakers drive a rapid transition to electrification.  While mitigating the effects of climate change continues to be the main driving force for that transition, the human health benefits will be a very significant reward for doing the right thing for the planet.

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Electric car sales drive toward cleaner air, less mortality

Photo, posted May 11, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electrifying Delivery Vehicles | Earth Wise

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Most of the buzz about electric vehicles relates to passenger cars as the auto industry is making a major transition away from gasoline power.  Recently, pickup trucks have started to get some attention as well as Ford’s electric version of the F-150 truck has hit the streets and the long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck will be introduced next year.  There hasn’t been as much talk about delivery vehicles, but there should be.

There are about 15 million delivery vehicles in the U.S., and they are a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.   The post office alone has a quarter million of them.  Such vehicles are especially attractive candidates for electrification.  Most travel relatively consistent and short routes, which makes it easier for companies to be able to charge them and keep them charged.

Electrifying delivery vehicles in cities is especially important because the vehicles travel into and through residential neighborhoods, spreading pollution and particulates as they go.

Some provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act provide credits for the purchase of commercial vehicles.  Light-duty vans and trucks qualify for a credit of as much as $7,500.  Medium- and heavy-duty trucks qualify for credits as high as $40,000.  In addition, substantial tax credits are available for the installation of charging equipment.

According to a study by the Rocky Mountain Institute, sixty percent of new truck sales could be electric by 2030.  By 2035, the trucking industry could cut its emissions in half.

American companies are already stepping up to the plate.  Amazon plans to deploy 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from new automaker Rivian.  Walmart, UPS, FedEx, and others have also committed to electrified trucks.

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The Climate Bill Will Electrify More Delivery Vans and Trucks

Photo, posted August 1, 2021, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Bidding ‘Adieu’ To Single-Use Plastics | Earth Wise

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Since the 1950s, more than nine billion tons of plastic have been produced, and 50% of that has been during the past 15 years.  While there are some use cases for plastic that are important, it generally serves as the poster child of our throwaway culture.

Plastic pollution can be found everywhere on earth, from the top of the tallest mountains to the bottom of the deepest oceans.  It’s in our food, water, and air. 

By 2040, researchers predict that there will be nearly 90 million tons of plastic pollution entering the environment each year.  By some estimates, single-use plastics account for half of all our plastic waste.    

Many cities, states, and even countries are limiting or even banning single-use plastics.  Canada recently announced a ban on single-use plastics.  The ban includes things like plastic shopping bags, cups, cutlery, straws, stirrers, and take-out food containers.

The ban will phase in over the next several years, beginning with a ban on the manufacture and import of single-use plastics by the end of this year.  Sales of these items will be prohibited in 2023, and the export of plastics will cease by the end of 2025.  

Canada’s southern neighbor, the United States, leads the world in plastic waste generation.  While some states have approved single-use plastic reforms, most of the effort at the federal level has focused on improving recycling rates.  However, a recent report from several environmental organizations found that plastic recycling rates in the U.S. have actually declined in the last several years, from an already-dismal 8.7% to less than 6%.    

Suggesting the plastic waste problem can be solved with improved recycling rates is greenwashing the issue. 

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Canada is banning single-use plastics, including grocery bags and straws

Photo, posted October 31, 2011, courtesy of Mara via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Record Renewable Use In California | Earth Wise

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California, the most populous state, is the second largest electricity user.  Only Texas, the second most populous state, uses more energy, in part because it consumes large amounts in refining fossil fuels. Overall, California uses about 8% of the electricity generated in the U.S.

Thus, it was a significant milestone when briefly, on April 3, a record 97.6% of the energy on California’s statewide grid came from renewable energy resources.  (The previous record of 96.4% was set just a few days earlier).

Renewable energy’s share of the power typically peaks in the spring when mild temperatures keep demand relatively low and higher sun angles drive greater solar energy production.

On April 8, a record peak solar power production was set at 13,628 megawatts just after noon.  On March 4, the state set an all-time wind generation record of 6,265 megawatts. 

California now has over 15,000 MW of grid-connected solar power and 8,000 MW of wind.  Another 600 MW of solar and 200 MW of wind are coming online by June.  The state also has about 2,700 MW of energy storage online and that will climb to 4,000 MW by June.

In 2020, 34.5% of the state’s retail electricity sales came from wind and solar sources.  Adding in hydropower and nuclear power, nearly 60% of the state’s electricity came from non-fossil fuel.  Despite the effects of drought on hydropower generation and the impact of the pandemic on the pace of renewable energy projects, California continues its dramatic transition to sustainable energy.

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Solar and wind notched records as renewables met California’s energy demand

Photo, posted September 20, 2016, courtesy of Tom Brewster Photography / BLM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars On The Rise | Earth Wise           

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The first quarter of the year was a tough one for the U.S. auto industry.  Overall sales of cars and trucks were down 15.7% compared with last year.   Automakers have been dealing with shortages of computer chips and other supplies, resulting in slowdowns in production.

The one major exception to the trend has been sales of electric cars.  In the first quarter, U.S. electric vehicle sales were up 76% compared with last year.  This was enough to double EV’s market share to 5.2%, up from 2.5% last year.

Reaching a five percent market share is a significant indicator that electric vehicles are becoming mainstream.  According to many industry analysts, this is just the beginning of a major ramp-up in EV sales.

The strong results in the first quarter were largely driven by one company – namely, Tesla.  Tesla has been expanding rapidly and has been proactive and creative in avoiding delays due to parts shortages.  Tesla’s best-selling car is now the Model Y, which is an SUV implementation of its Model 3 design.  Overall, the company is now producing cars at a rate of more than 1 million per year and has recently opened new manufacturing plants in Texas and in Germany.

But Tesla is not the only story in the world of electric vehicles.  Mass production is beginning for Ford’s F-150 Lightning truck. 

Nissan, Hyundai and Kia have electric cars on the market and shortly near-twin electric models jointly developed by Subaru and Toyota will be available as well.

The electrification of vehicles is an essential step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  With gasoline at painfully high prices, electric cars are more attractive than ever.

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Inside Clean Energy: US Electric Vehicle Sales Soared in First Quarter, while Overall Auto Sales Slid

Photo, posted October 13, 2017, courtesy of Rob Bertholf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Car Sales Surge | Earth Wise

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During the fourth quarter of 2021, overall auto sales in the US fell by 21.3% compared to the same quarter of 2020.  At the same time, sales of electric cars grew by 73%.  Is this the beginning of the end for the Gasoline Era, or was it a just an anomaly during the COVID pandemic?

The biggest factor for the big drop in car sales was probably on the supply side.  The ongoing chip shortage as well as other supply-chain problems made it difficult to find many desired vehicles.  Meanwhile, the soaring electric car sales in the US was mostly soaring Tesla sales.  According to Kelley Bluebook, 72% of all electric cars sold in the US in the fourth quarter were Teslas.  For a number of reasons related to its in-house software development and it unified computer architecture, the chip shortage has been far less of a problem for Tesla than for other car brands.  So, Tesla bucked the overall market decline because it actually had cars to sell.

So, once these supply-chain issues are resolved, will the car market return to “normal”?  That is actually unlikely.  Apart from the short-term issues, there are long-term factors that are changing the automobile market.

There is far more public attention on EVs these days.  Multiple commercials during the Superbowl demonstrated that.  All the carmakers are gearing up for an electric future as government policies push for it.   Electric vehicle sales are already booming in Europe.  Cars are fashion products and electric cars are the latest trend.  Electric car sales will continue to grow at an impressive pace this year.  According to many observers, the recent trend could be the beginning of an avalanche.

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US Electric Car Sales Surge As Overall Car Sales Slip — A Game-Changing Trend?

Photo, posted July 28, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Banning Gas Cars | Earth Wise

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The transition to electric vehicles from gas-powered vehicles is essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as air pollution in general.  Currently, transportation is responsible for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.

There is no doubt that there is surging interest in electric cars.  There are now millions of them being sold around the world each year.  But they still represent a small fraction of new car sales in most places.  Notable exceptions are several European countries such as Norway and Switzerland where plug-in vehicles are dominant.  In the United States, on the other hand, EVs still represent less than 3% of new car sales.

Given the urgency in reducing vehicle emissions, many countries around the world have devised plans, goals, or laws to end the sale of gasoline cars.  Gas car bans vary quite a bit around the world, but they are being implemented in many places.

There are 28 countries and US states that have imposed gas car bans to take effect over the next five to 20 years.  These include European countries like Norway, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Sweden, Scotland, Slovenia, the UK, France, and Spain.  Asian countries include South Korea, India, Japan, China, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan.  In the Middle East, Israel and Egypt have announced bans.  Here in the US, New York and California both have bans starting in 2035.  Canada also has announced a ban.

Car manufacturers have seen the writing on the wall.  Most have started adding EVs to their lineups.  Many have announced their own timetables for phasing out gas cars entirely.  There are more than 15 new electric models available this year and there are many more to follow next year.

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Over 25 Countries And U.S. States Are Planning to Ban Gasoline Powered Cars

Photo, posted January 24, 2009, courtesy of Oran Viriyincy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected | Earth Wise

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It is widely believed that electrification is the future for vehicles.  The only question is how long the transition will take.  Predictions are all over the map, but the recent trend is to revise those predictions to say it will happen sooner than previously thought.

A recent report from the international accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that EV sales in the US, China, and Europe will surpass those of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles five years sooner than previously expected.  The report forecasts that fossil-fueled vehicles will represent less than 1% of global sales by 2045, taking their place among other historical but essentially abandoned technologies.

Europe is expected to be the leader in EV adoption.  The forecast is that EVs will surpass legacy vehicles by 2028.  China is expected to follow by 2033.  The US is lagging behind, but even here, electrics are expected to achieve a majority of car sales by 2036.

Plug-in vehicle sales have surpassed a 10% market share in California and Tesla now has a 1.7% share of the total US car market.  Norway is the global EV leader with 3 out of 4 car buyers choosing electrics.  In that country, Tesla’s Model 3 is the top-selling vehicle of any kind.  In Switzerland, 40% of car sales are EVs or hybrids.

There are many variables that will affect the timetable for the EV transition.  Among them are the timetable for widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology, the effects of policy initiatives by governments around the world, the development of charging infrastructure, and the evolution of electricity generation and energy storage.

In any case, looking at the product roadmap for virtually every automobile manufacturer makes it clear that electric cars are the future.

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Ernst & Young: Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected

Photo, posted April 25, 2021, courtesy of Rutger van der Maar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Promoting Biodiversity In Agriculture | Earth Wise

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The organic foods industry is one of the fastest growing agricultural segments in the United States.  According to the Organic Trade Association, U.S. organic sales reached $61.9 billion in 2020, a jump of more than 12% over the previous year. 

Organic food has many benefits.  Organic food is free of antibiotics, growth hormones, and GMOs, and is grown using fewer pesticides.  Organic farming tends to be better for the environment by reducing pollution, conserving water, reducing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and using less energy.   And it’s also better for the health of nearby wildlife as well as the people who live close to farms. 

But when it comes to promoting biodiversity in agriculture, is organic farming the only alternative to conventional agriculture? It turns out it’s not – at least according to a new study recently published in the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 

According to an international research team led by the University of Göttingen in Germany, a landscape mosaic of natural habitats and small-scale and diverse cultivated areas is the key to promoting biodiversity on a large scale in both conventional and organic agriculture.

According to the research team, areas cultivated to organic standards have one third more species, but don’t reach the yield level of conventional farming.  This means that more land would need to be cultivated organically in order to produce the same amount of food.  But as larger areas are cultivated, the advantages for biodiversity would disappear.    

Landscapes with small fields, long edges, high crop diversity, and at least 20% near-natural habitats can promote biodiversity significantly more than just organic certification.   

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Web Links

U.S. Organic Industry Survey 2021

Promoting biodiversity-friendly landscapes – beyond organic farming

Photo, posted August 29, 2019, courtesy of Lance Cheung/USDA via Flickr.

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