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Positive Tipping Points And Climate | Earth Wise

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A tipping point is a moment when a small change triggers a large and possibly irreversible response.

There has been much discussion of various tipping points that could accelerate climate change in catastrophic ways.  A recent paper from researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK discusses a couple of tipping points that could accelerate positive progress on mitigating climate change.

Electric vehicles account for only 2-3% of new car sales globally. In Norway, this figure is more than 50%, mostly thanks to policies that make electric cars the same price to buy as conventional cars.   According to the Exeter study, when EVs cost the same to manufacture as conventional cars, it will be a global tipping point.  China, the EU, and California together are responsible for half of the world’s car sales and each of these has targets to rapidly decarbonize their economies and policies in place to speed the transition to electric vehicles. 

Decarbonizing electric power is the other potential positive tipping point.  In Europe, carbon taxes on top of increasing renewable energy generation have tipped coal into unprofitability as they have led to the irreversible destruction of coal plants.  Globally, renewables are already generating electricity cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries.  Decarbonizing global power generation would in turn help accelerate decarbonization of large parts of transportation, heating and cooling, and industry.

These potential positive tipping points are by no means inevitable.  Appropriate policies are needed to overcome various barriers to the clean energy transition.  But major changes in transportation and electric power would have a tremendous impact on the global effort to combat climate change.

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Positive ‘tipping points’ offer hope for climate

Photo, posted July 14, 2020, courtesy of Jim Champion via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Grid-Scale Battery Storage is on the Rise | Earth Wise

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Driven by steeply falling prices and improving technology, grid-scale battery storage systems are seeing record growth in the U.S. and around the world. Battery storage is a way to overcome one of the biggest obstacles to renewable energy:  the cycling between oversupply when the sun shines or the wind blows, and shortage when the sun sets or the wind drops.  Storing excess energy in battery banks can smooth imbalances between supply and demand.

In California, a 300-megawatt lithium-ion battery plant is being readied for operation with another 100 megawatts to come online in 2021.  The system will be able to power roughly 300,000 California homes for four-hour periods when energy demand outstrips supply.  It will be the world’s largest battery system for a while until even larger systems in Florida and in Saudi Arabia come online.

Nationwide, a record 1.2 gigawatts of storage were installed last year and that number is projected to jump dramatically over the next five years to nearly 7.5 gigawatts in 2025.

The price tag for utility-scale battery storage in the U.S. has plummeted, dropping nearly 70% just between 2015 and 2018.  Prices are expected to drop by a further 45% over the next decade.  Battery performance has continued to improve dramatically with increased power capacity and the ability to store and discharge energy over ever-longer periods of time. 

Favorable energy policies including renewable energy mandates coupled with continued price drops will drive the widespread expansion of battery energy storage.

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In Boost for Renewables, Grid-Scale Battery Storage Is on the Rise

Photo, posted November 17, 2016, courtesy of Steve Ryan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Large Drop In U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions | Earth Wise

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Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. in 2020 are on track to be at their lowest level in nearly 30 years as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.  U.S. emissions haven’t been this low since 1983, when the economy was not even 40% of its current size.

According to a new study by the research group BloombergNEF, U.S. emissions for the year will be 9% lower than they were in 2019, which will be the largest yearly drop on record.  The report also anticipates that whatever happens in the pandemic, 2021 emissions will be well below pre-COVID levels as well.

The pandemic has inadvertently put the U.S. back on track to meet its original commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement, despite the fact that we have pulled out the agreement.  The incoming administration plans to return the U.S. to the pact.

Overall, U.S. emissions have been trending downward since 2008, primarily as a result of the lower dependence of the power sector on coal.  The report estimates that in the absence of the pandemic, 2020 emissions would have been 1% lower than last year’s.

The dramatic drop in emissions is not really a great cause for celebration.  Achieving significant emission reductions through massive economic hardship and societal disruption does not point the way towards making progress on climate change.  The economic upturn that will undoubtedly occur when the pandemic loses its grip on the world will lead to rebounding levels of greenhouse gas emissions.  But as is the case with all major crises, the current situation does present a chance to turn this temporary downturn in emissions into a more permanent one by making appropriate investments and policy changes.

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Due to COVID-19, 2020 greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are predicted to drop to lowest level in three decades

Photo, posted January 13, 2013, courtesy of Onnola via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The First Earth Fund Awards | Earth Wise

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Last February, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos announced that he was launching the Bezos Earth Fund that would grant money to scientists, activists, NGOs and others making an effort to help preserve and protect the natural world.  The fund would start out with $10 billion and would begin issuing grants later in the year.

In November, the first Earth Fund award recipients were announced.  In total, 16 organizations will be receiving nearly $800 million in funding.

The largest awards include the following:  the Environmental Defense Fund received $100 million to build and launch MethaneSAT, a satellite that will locate and measure sources of methane pollution around the world and provide public access to data that assures accountability.

The Natural Resources Defense Council was awarded $100 million to advance climate solutions and legislation at the state level, promote policies and programs focused on reducing oil and gas production, protect and restore ecosystems that store carbon, and accelerate sustainable and regenerative agriculture practices.

The Nature Conservancy also received $100 million and plans to use the money to help protect the Emerald Edge forest.  (That is the largest intact coastal rainforest on Earth, spanning 100 million acres through Washington, British Columbia and Alaska).

The World Resources Institute will receive $100 million, doled out over five years, to be used to develop a satellite-based monitoring system to advance natural climate solutions around the world.

An additional $100 million award went to the World Wildlife Fund to help protect and restore mangroves, develop new markets for seaweed as an alternative to fossil fuel-based products, and to protect forests and other ecosystems around the world.

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The organizations that will benefit from Bezos’ $791M and what will they do with the money

Photo, posted March 4, 2015, courtesy of Kevin Gill via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Recovering Marine Life By 2050 | Earth Wise

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Marine life has faced challenges for a long time.   There have been centuries of overfishing in many places and pollution of various types has been especially harmful in recent decades.   But despite all of this, a new scientific review published in the journal Nature contends that marine life in the world’s oceans could be fully restored in as little as 30 years provided that aggressive conservation policies are adopted.

The research spotlights the strong resiliency of ocean animals and cites the successful recovery of a number of marine species, including humpback whales.

The study indicates that nations around the world must agree to designate 20 to 30 percent of the oceans as marine protected areas, institute sustainable fishing guidelines, and regulate pollution.  These measures would not come cheaply.  The estimated cost would be around $20 billion a year. 

However, the report also estimates that the economic return on this investment would be tenfold and would create millions of new jobs.  Rebuilding fish stocks and maintaining sustainable fishing policies could increase global profits of the seafood industry by over $50 billion a year.  Conserving coastal wetlands could save the insurance industry more than $50 billion a year as well by reducing storm damage.

A major sticking point, however, is climate change.  Climate change is increasing ocean temperatures and driving acidification.  Unless these changes are brought under control, the restoration of marine life is not going to be successful.  We have reached the point where it is within our power to choose between a future with a resilient and vibrant ocean or an irreversibly disrupted ocean.  Whether we embrace that challenge remains to be seen.

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Marine Life Could Recover By 2050 With the Right Policies, Study Finds

Photo, posted April 20, 2012, courtesy of Matthias Hiltner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

What Is An Endangered Species? | Earth Wise

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Biodiversity is declining rapidly throughout the world and people are mostly the reason.  Species are disappearing because of changes in land and sea use, the direct exploitation of organisms, climate change, pollution, and invasive alien species resulting from globalization.  The challenges of conserving the world’s species are many and difficult.  Among these challenges are determining which species are endangered and how and when to protect them.

What constitutes an endangered species is not necessarily obvious. 

Extinction risk increases as a species is driven to extinction from portions of its natural range.  Most mammal species have already been driven to extinction from half or more of their historic ranges because of human activities.

According to a recent survey of ordinary Americans, three-quarters of participants said that a species deserves special protections if it had been driven to extinction from any more than 30% of its historic range.  This compares with the language of the U.S. Endangered Species Act that defines an endangered species as one that is “in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range.”

Experts and decision-makers are more accepting of risks and losses because they believe greater protection would be impossibly expensive.  Decision-makers tend to be influenced by special interest groups with a vested interest in not instituting protections.

Before human activities began elevating extinction risk, a typical vertebrate species would have experienced an extinction risk of 1% over a 10,000-year period.  Current policies consider a 5% risk over 100 years to be acceptable.  Policies consider whether we can afford to protect species.  Given the dangers of declining biodiversity, we should ask whether we can afford not to.

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What Is An Endangered Species?

Photo, posted July 29, 2018, courtesy of Sergio Boscaino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Native Species Or Invasive Species? | Earth Wise

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For decades, conservation biology has characterized the movement of species into new habitats as potential invasions of alien species that pose serious dangers to local ecosystems and resident species.  Wild species are classified as either native or alien.  But this way of looking at the natural world is becoming increasingly controversial.

As the world warms, a mass exodus of tens of thousands of species is transforming the distribution of biodiversity.  Scientists have documented countless species shifting their ranges towards the poles, higher up into the mountains, and deeper into the oceans in response to the changing climate.

Deciduous shrubs have spread into the Arctic tundra.  Tropical fish have arrived in the kelp forests of the eastern Mediterranean. 

A growing number of scientists now say that continuing to base conservation policy on the native-alien dichotomy may actually endanger biodiversity.  The climate-driven range shifts may be the only way for many species to survive.  Furthermore, only a small fraction of new arrivals may actually endanger resident species and ecosystems.

There are real distinctions between climate-displaced species and disruptive alien species introduced through global trade and travel.  Among other things, climate-displaced species tend to shift their ranges alongside other species they have co-evolved with.

There is talk of establishing a Climate Change Redistribution Treaty that would create a transnational system to manage species shifting across geopolitical and biogeographical borders.  The assumptions traditionally made as to which species to protect, which to leave to their own devices,  and which to eradicate are no longer valid and the time has come to base conservation policies on the new reality.

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Native Species or Invasive? The Distinction Blurs as the World Warms

Photo, posted March 21, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Stranded Coal Assets In Japan

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Japan is facing a looming financial problem as a result of heavy investments in coal technology that may quickly become stranded assets as renewable energy sources become increasingly inexpensive.

Japan is gradually adding more ambitious policies with regard to climate change including goals to reduce emissions and to have renewables become the main source of power over the next three decades.  But despite these policy efforts, Japan is still investing heavily in coal power.  Japan currently has 21 new coal projects with over 11 GW of under-construction, permitted or pre-permitted coal capacity.  But these tens of billions of dollars in assets would have to be closed prematurely in order to remain consistent with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

According to a new report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a financial think tank, and the University of Tokyo, offshore wind power will be cheaper than coal in Japan by 2022, new solar cheaper by 2023, and onshore wind less expensive by 2025.  The price of offshore wind is already comparable to existing coal power in Japan.  Japan had a total of 55.5 GW of solar capacity last year and has the potential to reach 150 GW by 2030.

The report notes that 42% of the global coal fleet likely became unprofitable last year and this could rise to 72% by 2040.  The authors contend that building coal power today equals high-cost power and financial liabilities tomorrow.  The planned and operating coal capacity in Japan is partially protected by regulations that give coal generators an unfair advantage in the marketplace.  Ultimately, the stranded coal assets are likely to be passed down to consumers through higher power prices.

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Land of the Rising Sun and Offshore Wind

Photo, posted April 25, 2019, courtesy of Jen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

We’re Still Eating The Wrong Things

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A new study published in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics has found that despite efforts to increase public awareness of health issues related to diet, the amount of processed meat consumed by Americans has remained unchanged in the past 18 years.  Furthermore, our intake of fish and shellfish has not increased.  One quarter of US adults are still eating more unprocessed read meat than the recommended level, and less than 15% meet the current guidelines for fish and shellfish consumption.

About the only positive note is that Americans are eating less beef and more chicken than they did 18 years ago and, in fact, for the first time, the consumption of poultry exceeds that of unprocessed red meat.

Accumulating evidence has linked excessive consumption of processed meat to increased risk of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers.  The study’s authors speculate that public awareness of these linkages is not widespread enough to affect change and, in any case, factors other than health – social, cultural, and economic – have greater influence over Americans’ food choices.  The top five consumed processed meats are luncheon meat, sausage, hot dogs, ham, and bacon.

The low consumption of fish and shellfish among U.S. adults could be due to high retail prices, lack of awareness of the health benefits, and concerns about mercury contamination in certain types of fish.

Future research is needed to identify barriers to reducing processed meat consumption and increased seafood consumption.  Policies such as nutrition quality standards, excise taxes, health warning labels, and other interventions need to be explored.

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Americans still eat too much processed meat and too little fish

Photo, posted January 28, 2014, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Utility-Scale Solar On The Rise

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According to research from Goldman Sachs, utility-scale solar power capacity is expected to grow by double digits globally over the next two years.  The growth will be driven by expanding use of the technology in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and China.

Solar power is the world’s fastest growing source of electricity generation and is slowly taking market share from fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.  The transition is being driven by a combination of continuously lower prices for solar power and the impact of policies aimed at reducing emissions.

Utility-scale solar is defined as installations designed solely to feed electricity into the grid, in contrast to smaller-scale residential or commercial building units.  There are now solar farms larger than half a gigawatt in generating capacity.  According to the Goldman report, global utility-scale solar installations will reach 108 gigawatts in 2019, up 12% over the previous year, and will then grow another 10% to 119 gigawatts in 2020.

When residential and other smaller installations are included, most analysts expect global solar power capacity to soon hit 600 gigawatts.  To put this in perspective, the global capacity only reached 100 gigawatts in 2012 and was actually less than 10 gigawatts in 2007.

Even more dramatic than the growth of solar installations is the reduction in solar cost, and the two are obviously closely related.  Solar panel costs have dropped from around $70 per watt of electricity generated in 1980 to 36 cents per watt currently in the United States.  When favorable policies both from governments and related to corporate sustainability targets are added to the mix, the booming growth in solar power is easy to understand.

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Large-scale solar power set for double-digit growth: Goldman Sachs

Photo, posted March 7, 2019, courtesy of Hedgerow Inc via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Earth Day

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Today is Earth Day.  On April 22, 1970, millions of Americas took to the streets in peaceful demonstrations in favor of environmental reform.  Since that first time, Earth Day has now become a global event each year.  Estimates are that as many as a billion people in 192 countries take part in Earth Day events.

This year, the theme for Earth Day is “Protect our Species.”  The focus is on the fact that the world is facing the greatest rate of extinction since the demise of the dinosaurs more than 60 million years ago.

But unlike the extinctions from that time that were linked to so-called acts of god like asteroid collisions, the rapid extinction of species in our world today is mostly the result of human activity.

The global destruction and rapid reduction of plant and wildlife populations are directly linked to climate change, deforestation, habitat loss, trafficking and poaching, unsustainable agriculture, pollution, and pesticides.

In order to stem the tide of destruction, the Earth Day Network is asking people to help raise awareness about the accelerating rate of extinction of millions of species and the causes and consequences of this phenomenon.  We need to push for the creation of policies that protect broad groups of species as well as individual species and their habitats.  There needs to be a global movement that embraces nature and its values. And we need to eat less meat and curtail the use of pesticides and herbicides.

We share the planet with many species, and we need them to be here in order to sustain our own species.  Something to remember on Earth Day 2019.

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Earth Day Network

Photo, posted January 24, 2012, courtesy of Jonas Bengtsson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

California Fires And Precipitation

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Two things we have heard a lot about in recent years have been the persistent drought in California and the terrible wildfires the state has experienced.  Along the way, the state has had some pretty wet and snowy winters.  This past winter, the California snow pack has seen incredible levels building up, which is great news for the state’s farmers.  But does that also mean that the next year should see some relief from severe wildfires?

The answer appears to be no.  A new study from an international team that includes the University of Arizona has comprehensively looked at the amount of winter precipitation in California and the severity of the subsequent wildfire season. 

The position of the North Pacific jetstream over California is strongly linked to the amount of winter precipitation.  This has been true for hundreds of years and continues to be the case.

From 1600 to 1903, the linkage between winter precipitation and wildfire severity was also very strong.  But after 1904, that connection weakened.  As a result, fire suppression policies were instituted.  When fires arose, they were put out as quickly as possible.  The result over time is fuel buildup, making larger fires far more likely.

According to the new study, after 1977, the connection between winter precipitation and wildfire severity disappeared entirely.  There no longer appears to be any relationship between jet stream dynamics and fire.  The warming climate and the results of fire suppression dominate the potential for wildfire.  California’s wet winter of 2016-2017 provides a good example.  That winter was followed by many large fires in 2017.

So, this very wet winter in California does not imply that this should be a year without severe wildfires.

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Wildfire Risk in California No Longer Coupled to Winter Precipitation

Photo, posted July 26, 2018, courtesy of Bureau of Land Management California via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Renewable Energy Jobs

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According to a new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency, more than half a million new jobs were generated by the renewable energy industry last year, an increase of 5.3% when compared with 2016.  The total number of people working in the renewables sector – which includes large hydropower facilities – has now exceeded 10 million people worldwide.

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Palm Oil Progress

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According to the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil or RSPO, almost 12 million tons, or 21% of the global supply of palm oil, is now certified as responsible and sustainable.  The massive expansion of palm oil plantations has been one of the primary causes of global deforestation.  This has been especially the case in Borneo, where 85% of global palm oil production takes place.

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