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Powering Britain with sun and wind

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The United Kingdom is quite small in size compared with the US, but its population of 67 million makes it a fairly large country with substantial energy needs.  A recent study by Oxford University looked at the ability of wind and solar power to provide for those energy needs over the course of time.

According to the study, Britain’s energy needs could easily be met entirely by the two sources of clean power.  Wind and solar can provide significantly more energy than the highest energy demand forecasted for 2050 and nearly 10 times the current electricity demand. 

Britain currently requires 299 TWh per year.  The Oxford study found that wind and solar could generate as much as 2,896 TWh per year. Furthermore, the researchers stated that these estimates are intentionally conservative, taking into account concerns around land use and the visual impact of installations.

The analysis assumes that offshore wind would produce nearly three-quarters of the energy required.  Onshore wind would contribute about 7%, while taking up only 0.07% of the country’s land.  Utility-scale solar would add about 19% of the power.  The small remainder comes from rooftop solar.  The researchers do point out that the power grid would require significant upgrades to handle all this renewable energy and that there would need to be appropriate quantities of energy storage. 

According to the authors of the study, achieving these results is a question of ambition rather than technical feasibility.  So far, the UK government has not been aggressive in making the transition to renewable energy.

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Wind and solar power could significantly exceed Britain’s energy needs

Photo, posted November 4, 2021, courtesy of Steve Knight via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars And Apartments | Earth Wise

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The transition to electric cars is underway.  People are increasingly buying them, carmakers are switching over to making them, and governments are providing incentives as well as legislating the changeover.  More and more consumers want to lower their carbon footprints and stop burning fossil fuels.  But one very large group of consumers faces an uphill battle in switching to electric cars:  people who rent their dwellings.

About one third of our country lives in rented apartments or houses.  These nearly 110 million Americans are more likely to be in the bottom half of income and net worth and are more likely to be people of color.  These people are less likely to have the spare cash to make upgrades to their property such as car chargers and may not be able to get permission from their landlords to do it anyway.

Renters face what is known as the “split-incentive problem” or the “landlord-tenant problem.”  Three-quarters of tenants in the US pay their own utility bills, so they have a strong incentive to conserve electricity, water, and gas.  Their landlords, on the other hand, have little incentive to upgrade appliances and systems to be more environmentally responsible.  Studies have shown that on average renters use 3% more energy than homeowners for this reason.

There are some landlords who are being proactive and installing facilities for charging cars on their properties.   This will undoubtedly become an increasingly sought-after feature for renters.  But in the meantime, millions of them have a more difficult time driving electric cars.  They can charge at public chargers or perhaps at work.  But at the moment, homeowners are three times more likely than renters to own an electric car.

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The coming battle between Americans who want to go electric and their landlords

Photo, posted July 22, 2022, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars In Norway | Earth Wise

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We are at a relatively early stage of the electric car revolution.  EV sales are increasing rapidly, but they still comprise only a small fraction of the cars on American roads.  So, there is still lots of speculation and argument about how things will actually work when a large fraction of cars are electric.  But there is at least one place where one doesn’t have to speculate:  Norway.

Last year, 80% of new-car sales in Norway were EVs.  That country is essentially an observatory for figuring out what the electrification of vehicles will mean for the environment, workers, and life in general.  In fact, sales of internal combustion cars in Norway will end in 2025.

Based on Norway’s experience, electric vehicles bring benefits and none of the dire consequences that some critics predict.  The transition isn’t problem-free.  There have been unreliable chargers and long waits during periods of high demand.  Auto dealers and retailers have had to adapt to the changes in their businesses.  The pecking order of car brands has changed dramatically making Tesla the best-selling brand and marginalizing long-established carmakers like Renault and Fiat.

But in the bigger picture, the air in Oslo, the capital of Norway, is measurably cleaner.  The city is quieter as noisy gasoline and diesel vehicles gradually disappear.  Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 30% since 2009.  Meanwhile, there hasn’t been mass unemployment among gas station workers, and the electrical grid has not collapsed.

Norway is perhaps 10 years ahead of us with respect to electric cars.  There are still problems to solve, and difficulties to overcome, but so far, it looks like it will all turn out well.

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In Norway, the Electric Vehicle Future Has Already Arrived

Photo, posted October 15, 2018, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Banning Gas-Powered Cars | Earth Wise

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The European Union has banned the sale of new gas-powered cars starting in 2035.  The vote came after weeks of negotiations related to possible exemptions to the rule.

Germany lobbied for an exemption to be made for cars powered by e-fuels.  These are made by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide that has been removed from the atmosphere using processes powered by renewable energy.  Because of this source of the carbon dioxide, such fuels are considered to be carbon neutral.  The EU agreed to grant this exemption, so there can be cars that run only on e-fuels after 2035.

About a quarter of carbon emissions in the EU come from transportation.  The new law requires a 55% drop in carbon emissions from new cars by 2030.  Poland voted against the new law, while Bulgaria, Romania, and Italy abstained.  (Italy wanted an exemption for biofuels, but it was not granted).

Here in the US, seven states have adopted rules banning the sale of new gas-powered cars in 2035.  These are California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington. 

California has committed to having 35% of new car sales being zero-emission vehicles by 2026, and the number rising to 68% by 2030.

As these policies proliferate around the world, the auto industry is moving ahead to keep up with them.  Most automakers are planning to have substantial parts of their product line be electric by 2030.  Given the financial and physical inertia involved in shifting to electric vehicle production, regardless of what happens with policies around the world, there is little possibility of turning back from the electric vehicle transition.

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EU Approves 2035 Ban on Sales of Gas-Powered Cars

Photo, posted May 31, 2012, courtesy of Mike Norton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Peak Fossil Fuels | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit that studies the energy transition, we have reached a pivot point in which fossil fuels have peaked in their use for producing electricity and are about to enter a period of decline.

The report makes the case that wind and solar power are going through a growth process that looks very much like the trend lines for the early stages of other transformative products and industries – things like automobiles and smartphones.  Such growth begins slowly for technology and products that are very expensive, but then shifts into high gear as costs shrink and efficiency rises.

The argument is that fossil fuel demand has peaked in the electricity market because the annual growth in global electricity demand is now less that the amount of electricity being generated by newly-built renewable energy plants (mostly solar and wind.)  This dynamic will squeeze out the most expensive and dirtiest energy sources over time.

Overall use of fossil fuels for electricity shifted in 2018 from a long-standing period of growth to a holding pattern in which the total amount of electricity produced has no clear trend.  According to the RMI report, this plateau in fossil fuel use is likely to continue until about 2025, and then will be followed by a long-term decline.

While the trends in fossil fuel use are quite evident, the end results are not inevitable.  There continues to be a battle between the forces trying to protect the fossil fuel status quo and those trying to change it. But strong economic forces are difficult to overcome.  Renewable energy is the lowest cost source of electricity in a growing number of locations and situations.

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When Will We Hit Peak Fossil Fuels? Maybe We Already Have

Photo, posted December 27, 2015, courtesy of Gerry Machen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars And Cleaner Air | Earth Wise

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Cities are awash in microscopic soot and other pollutants from the tailpipes of vehicles.  Apart from contributing substantially to the warming of the planet, these emissions have a significant impact on human health.  Research at Cornell University has determined that the continued growth of electric cars will lead to cleaner air and reduced human mortality in most if not all U.S. metropolitan areas.

The study, published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, estimated the health impact and consequential economic impact of cleaner air in American cities as a result of the transition to electric vehicles.

For example, by 2050, Los Angeles will have 1,163 fewer premature deaths annually, corresponding to $12.6 billion in economic health benefits.  Greater New York City could see 574 fewer deaths a year leading to $6.24 billion in associated economic gains.

Global sales of electric cars have grown steadily.  In 2016, they accounted for less than 1% of the market.  That share grew to 2.2% in 2018, 4.1% in 2020, and 6.6% in 2021.

In the U.S., electric cars accounted for 4.5% of sales in 2021, but in many cities, the numbers were much higher. 

These trends are likely to accelerate as a combination of government policies and major decisions by automakers drive a rapid transition to electrification.  While mitigating the effects of climate change continues to be the main driving force for that transition, the human health benefits will be a very significant reward for doing the right thing for the planet.

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Electric car sales drive toward cleaner air, less mortality

Photo, posted May 11, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Clean Energy Transition Is Accelerating | Earth Wise

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The world’s economies including its energy markets have been in turmoil in recent times but despite the chaotic conditions, the shift to clean energy is gaining momentum.  This year, for the first time, the world is investing more in wind and solar power than in oil and gas drilling.  Investments in renewables are expected to reach $494 billion this year, more than the $446 billion directed towards oil and gas extraction.  It is rather sobering to realize that the world is still spending nearly half a trillion dollars a year to dig up more oil and gas.

According to the International Energy Agency, there will be an estimated 340 gigawatts of new renewable power capacity installed in 2022.  This is roughly equal to the total installed power capacity of Japan, which has the world’s third-largest economy.  This year is also seeing tremendous growth in electric cars, which are projected to make up 13% of all light-duty vehicle sales across the globe.

According to analysis by Bloomberg Green, 87 countries are now getting at least 5% of their power from wind and solar.  This number is considered to be a critical tipping point at which emerging technologies become more widely adopted.  The United States reached that 5% threshold in 2011.  Last year, our country surpassed 20% solar and wind power.  If we follow trends set by pioneering countries like Denmark, Ireland, and others, wind and solar will supply at least half of our power within the next decade.

Despite the turbulence in global energy markets, the shift to clean power is ongoing.  Estimates are that global spending on renewables will double over the next 10 years. 

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Despite Turmoil in Energy Markets, the Shift to Clean Energy Is Gaining Steam

Photo, posted June 12, 2013, courtesy of Activ Solar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Carbon Capture Booming | Earth Wise

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For the world to reach a state of net-zero emissions, it is going to require more than the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources.  There will also need to be efforts to capture the emissions from sources that can’t easily eliminate their pollution.  These include steel mills, cement plants, and other industrial sites.  At least for the foreseeable future,  a number of essential industries have no other viable path to deep decarbonization, and carbon capture and storage projects are the only promising strategy on hand.

Companies use CCS to filter emissions from fossil fuel power plants and industrial facilities and then bury the captured carbon underground, often in deep caverns.

Over the past 12 months, the pipeline for carbon capture and storage projects has grown by 44%.  This year, firms have announced 61 new CCS projects, bringing the total number of commercial projects in the global pipeline to 196, which includes about 30 that are already in operation.  Another 11 are under construction, and 153 are in development.

When all of these projects are completed, they will have the capacity to capture a total of about 270 million tons of carbon dioxide per year.  Estimates are that there need to be 1,400 million tons locked away each year to reach zero-emissions.  So, the existing project pipeline constitutes about 20% of what is ultimately needed.

The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act boosts tax incentives for carbon capture.  Analysts believe this could multiply U.S. deployment of the technology more than 10-fold.  Globally, it is expected that CCS will continue its rapid growth as countries ramp up investments in the technology.

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Carbon Capture Projects See Meteoric Growth in 2022

Photo, posted August 22, 2022, courtesy of Nenad Stojkovic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Decarbonizing Could Save Trillions | Earth Wise

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Scientists have long been calling for a transition to clean energy to prevent catastrophic impacts of climate change.  For much of that time, many people and, specifically, many of those in power, were skeptical of the need to do something about the warming climate.  But even as the facts about the changing climate became increasingly undeniable, there continued to be fears that the transition to clean energy sources would be unacceptably expensive and harmful to the economy.

A recent study published by Oxford University shows that the opposite is true:  a concerted effort to convert to green energy technologies such as solar, wind, and batteries, will save the world enormous amounts of money.

The Oxford study shows that a transition to nearly 100% clean energy by 2050 results in a lower-cost energy system that provides energy access to more people around the world.  The energy transition is expected to save the world at least $12 trillion compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.

The cost of renewable energy sources has been going down for decades and they are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations.  It is expected that they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications over time.  Accelerating the transition will allow renewables to become cheaper faster.

The study made use of probabilistic models to estimate the costs of various possible future energy systems based on past data.  Even the most pessimistic models showed that scaling up green technologies is likely to drive their costs down so far that they will generate net cost savings and that the faster the transition goes, the more will be saved.  The result will be a cleaner, cheaper, more energy secure future.

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Decarbonising the energy system by 2050 could save trillions

Photo, posted July 12, 2010, courtesy of Tom Shockey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electrifying Delivery Vehicles | Earth Wise

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Most of the buzz about electric vehicles relates to passenger cars as the auto industry is making a major transition away from gasoline power.  Recently, pickup trucks have started to get some attention as well as Ford’s electric version of the F-150 truck has hit the streets and the long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck will be introduced next year.  There hasn’t been as much talk about delivery vehicles, but there should be.

There are about 15 million delivery vehicles in the U.S., and they are a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.   The post office alone has a quarter million of them.  Such vehicles are especially attractive candidates for electrification.  Most travel relatively consistent and short routes, which makes it easier for companies to be able to charge them and keep them charged.

Electrifying delivery vehicles in cities is especially important because the vehicles travel into and through residential neighborhoods, spreading pollution and particulates as they go.

Some provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act provide credits for the purchase of commercial vehicles.  Light-duty vans and trucks qualify for a credit of as much as $7,500.  Medium- and heavy-duty trucks qualify for credits as high as $40,000.  In addition, substantial tax credits are available for the installation of charging equipment.

According to a study by the Rocky Mountain Institute, sixty percent of new truck sales could be electric by 2030.  By 2035, the trucking industry could cut its emissions in half.

American companies are already stepping up to the plate.  Amazon plans to deploy 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from new automaker Rivian.  Walmart, UPS, FedEx, and others have also committed to electrified trucks.

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The Climate Bill Will Electrify More Delivery Vans and Trucks

Photo, posted August 1, 2021, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Lithium Mining And The Environment | Earth Wise

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The Salar de Atacama in Chile is a large, dry salt flat surrounded by mountain ranges and is one of the driest places on Earth. Parts of the Atacama Desert have gone without rain for as long as people have been keeping track. Water rich in dissolved salts lies beneath this flat surface and it is particularly rich in lithium salts.  Forty percent of the world’s known lithium deposits are the in the Salar.

Lithium is the key component of the batteries that power electric cars as well as cell phones and computers.  It is an essential part of the transition away from fossil fuels and towards green energy.  But it is important that this element is obtained responsibly with minimal damage to the environment.

Lithium, the lightest of the metals, tends to occur in layers of volcanic ash, but reacts quickly with water.  It leaches into groundwater and settles in flat basins where it remains in a briny solution.  This dense brine often ends up beneath pockets of fresh surface water, which are havens for fragile ecosystems.

A new study by the University of Massachusetts Amherst looked at the hydrological impact of lithium mining in the Salar.  The study found that the impact of lithium mining depends critically on how long surface water is in place.  Much of the fresh water there is at least 60 years old.  Both droughts and extreme rainfall can cause major changes to the surface water that ordinarily comes from mountain runoff.  Lithium mining itself only accounts for less than 10% of freshwater usage in the Salar. But the state of the surface water needs to be carefully monitored to protect the ecosystems as the climate continues to change.

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How environmentally responsible is lithium brine mining? It depends on how old the water is

Photo, posted February 21, 2016, courtesy of Jorge Pacheco via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Carbon Capture: Solution Or Band-Aid? | Earth Wise

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The idea of capturing the CO2 emissions from industry and locking them up is nothing new.  It’s been going on for decades in some places.  Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor has been holing away a million tons of CO2 a year for a long time.  But overall, CCS – carbon capture and storage – has had very limited use.  As of last year, there were only about 30 large-scale projects in operation around the world, capturing only 0.1% of global emissions.

There is now growing interest in CCS and many new projects are underway.  A combination of rising carbon prices in Europe, tax breaks for CCS in the US, national net-zero targets, and the increasing need to ramp down global emissions are all driving rising CCS activities. 

While recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change still claim that it is possible to remain below 2 degrees Celsius of warming without using carbon capture, there is growing belief that it may be necessary given the present pace of the transition away from fossil fuels.

Two industries that together produce about 14% of global CO2 emissions are cement and steel.  These are both industries for which it is difficult to eliminate emissions regardless of the energy sources used. CCS may be the best approach to reducing their emissions.

But there is considerable pushback against CCS.  The concern is that CCS is primarily a way to delay decarbonization.  It encourages various industries to continue to use fossil fuels instead of shifting away from them.  Nonetheless, CCS no doubt has its place as part of the solution to climate change.

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Solution or Band-Aid? Carbon Capture Projects Are Moving Ahead

Photo, posted June 5, 2022, courtesy of Mark Dixon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Avoiding Blackouts With Renewable Energy | Earth Wise

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There are some people who worry that an electric grid heavily dependent upon intermittent sources like solar and wind power may be more susceptible to blackouts.  According to a new study by Stanford University, these fears are misplaced.

The study, published in the journal Renewable Energy, found that an energy system running on wind, water, and solar, when combined with energy storage, avoids blackouts, and lowers energy requirements and consumer costs.  In addition, implementing such a system would create millions of jobs, improve people’s health, and reduce land requirements.

The study focused on the stability in all U.S. grid regions as well as individual states based on the requirement that all electricity is provided by clean and renewable sources. No fossil fuel use, bioenergy, blue hydrogen, or even nuclear power were included in the modeling.  Critics of such a shift in the energy system point to grid blackouts during extreme weather events in California in 2020 and Texas in 2021 as evidence that renewable sources can’t be trusted.  But in both cases, renewable energy was not found to be any more vulnerable than other sources.

The study looked at the costs of the transition – which would be substantial – but found that it would pay for itself fairly quickly based on energy cost savings alone.

A significant finding of the study was that long-duration batteries were neither necessary nor helpful for grid stability.  That stability could be obtained by linking together currently available short-duration batteries.  Interconnecting larger and larger geographic regions would make the power system smoother and more reliable.  Overall, intelligent management of the electric grid can result in a reliable and clean power system.

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Stanford researchers point the way to avoiding blackouts with clean, renewable energy

Photo, posted October 17, 2016, courtesy of B Sarangi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Liquid Fuels From Carbon Dioxide | Earth Wise

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Most of the world’s energy demands are still being met by burning fossil fuels, thereby releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  The energy system is in the midst of a transition to renewable sources such as solar and wind power, but it will be quite some time before fossil fuels are only a minor part of energy production.  To reduce global warming, it will be necessary to prevent the carbon dioxide from fossil fuels from entering the atmosphere by capturing it and either locking it away or making use of it.

Recent research at several Chinese universities has developed a novel electrocatalyst that efficiently converts CO2 to liquid fuels containing multiple carbon atoms.  The main products of the high-efficiency reaction are ethanol, acetone, and n-butanol.  Previous electrocatalystic methods have mostly produced simpler hydrocarbons – namely, ones with only a single carbon atom.  The fuels the new catalyst produces are much more useful.

The catalyst is made from thin ribbons of a copper/titanium alloy that are etched with hydrofluoric acid to remove the titanium from the surface.  The process results in a material with a porous copper surface on an amorphous CuTi alloy.  The substance exhibits remarkably high activity, selectivity, and stability for catalyzing the reactions leading to the production of the hydrocarbon fuels.

Converting carbon dioxide into liquid fuels would be advantageous because they have high energy density and are safe to store and transport.  Apart from preventing carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere, the process could also be a way to make use of excess energy produced by solar and wind generation by essentially storing that energy in the form of liquid fuels.

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Liquid Fuels from Carbon Dioxide

Photo courtesy of Angewandte Chemie via Wiley-VCH.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected | Earth Wise

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It is widely believed that electrification is the future for vehicles.  The only question is how long the transition will take.  Predictions are all over the map, but the recent trend is to revise those predictions to say it will happen sooner than previously thought.

A recent report from the international accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that EV sales in the US, China, and Europe will surpass those of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles five years sooner than previously expected.  The report forecasts that fossil-fueled vehicles will represent less than 1% of global sales by 2045, taking their place among other historical but essentially abandoned technologies.

Europe is expected to be the leader in EV adoption.  The forecast is that EVs will surpass legacy vehicles by 2028.  China is expected to follow by 2033.  The US is lagging behind, but even here, electrics are expected to achieve a majority of car sales by 2036.

Plug-in vehicle sales have surpassed a 10% market share in California and Tesla now has a 1.7% share of the total US car market.  Norway is the global EV leader with 3 out of 4 car buyers choosing electrics.  In that country, Tesla’s Model 3 is the top-selling vehicle of any kind.  In Switzerland, 40% of car sales are EVs or hybrids.

There are many variables that will affect the timetable for the EV transition.  Among them are the timetable for widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology, the effects of policy initiatives by governments around the world, the development of charging infrastructure, and the evolution of electricity generation and energy storage.

In any case, looking at the product roadmap for virtually every automobile manufacturer makes it clear that electric cars are the future.

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Ernst & Young: Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected

Photo, posted April 25, 2021, courtesy of Rutger van der Maar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Have We Reached Peak Internal Combustion Engine? | Earth Wise

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According to new analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sales of gas-powered cars may well have peaked in 2017, representing a significant milestone in the transition to electric vehicles.

Demand for gas cars dropped in 2018 and 2019, and then plummeted in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.  While sales are surely picking up as the pandemic ebbs, the increasing demand (and supply as well) for plug-in vehicles is likely to put gas-powered cars in a state of permanent decline.

Global EV sales are projected to go from 3.1 million last year to 14 million in 2025.  The growth is being driven by falling battery prices, government policies, and increasing choices of vehicles.  Virtually all automobile manufacturers are introducing electric vehicles over the next couple of years and increasing numbers of them are planning a complete transition to EVs in the near future.  Projections are that EVs will account for the majority of new car sales by 2035.

While all this progress is encouraging, there are still over a billion gas- and diesel-powered cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly.  The current average operating life of cars here in the US is 12 years.

To reach the net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050 as many governments have mandated, additional policies and regulations will be needed.  For example, electric cars will need to account for essentially all new sales by 2035, not just the majority.  Reaching net-zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, including trucks and heavy commercial vehicles that have barely started to become electrified.

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New Analysis Suggests We Have Already Hit Peak Internal Combustion Engine

Photo, posted December 23, 2017, courtesy of Davide Gambino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Ever Cheaper Solar Power | Earth Wise

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The price of electricity from solar panels has been dropping dramatically over the last decade.  The average cost of utility-scale solar power has gone down more than 80% since 1980, making it the least expensive power source in many places.  The plunging price of solar power is one of the driving forces behind the transition to clean energy. 

The 2020 average cost of solar power was 4.6 cents per kilowatt-hour.  The Department of Energy has recently set a target of reducing the cost of solar power by more than half again by 2030, to an unsubsidized average of 2 cents per kilowatt-hour.  The 2-cent goal is not just the ordinary cost of electricity; it is the levelized cost of energy which is based on a formula that includes the cost of construction and operation of a power plant.

If the least expensive power source becomes that much cheaper, it will really shake the foundation of many energy debates.  One of these debates is how to meet the need for more interstate power lines to transport renewable energy from rural areas to population centers.   If large amounts of additional renewable energy sources are added, policymakers will need to work harder to reform the regulatory system to make sure that new interstate power lines get built.

If the average cost of solar power reaches 2 cents a kilowatt-hour, the actual price will be lower in sunnier regions and higher in those that get less sun.  However, the continuing decrease in solar electricity costs will actually have the greatest impact in the northern, less sunny regions, because solar power may not currently be the least expensive option there but it will become the cheapest alternative over time.

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Inside Clean Energy: What Happens When Solar Power Gets Much, Much Cheaper?

Photo, posted May 14, 2020, courtesy of Courtney Celley/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Positive Tipping Points And Climate | Earth Wise

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A tipping point is a moment when a small change triggers a large and possibly irreversible response.

There has been much discussion of various tipping points that could accelerate climate change in catastrophic ways.  A recent paper from researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK discusses a couple of tipping points that could accelerate positive progress on mitigating climate change.

Electric vehicles account for only 2-3% of new car sales globally. In Norway, this figure is more than 50%, mostly thanks to policies that make electric cars the same price to buy as conventional cars.   According to the Exeter study, when EVs cost the same to manufacture as conventional cars, it will be a global tipping point.  China, the EU, and California together are responsible for half of the world’s car sales and each of these has targets to rapidly decarbonize their economies and policies in place to speed the transition to electric vehicles. 

Decarbonizing electric power is the other potential positive tipping point.  In Europe, carbon taxes on top of increasing renewable energy generation have tipped coal into unprofitability as they have led to the irreversible destruction of coal plants.  Globally, renewables are already generating electricity cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries.  Decarbonizing global power generation would in turn help accelerate decarbonization of large parts of transportation, heating and cooling, and industry.

These potential positive tipping points are by no means inevitable.  Appropriate policies are needed to overcome various barriers to the clean energy transition.  But major changes in transportation and electric power would have a tremendous impact on the global effort to combat climate change.

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Positive ‘tipping points’ offer hope for climate

Photo, posted July 14, 2020, courtesy of Jim Champion via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A New Carbon Capture Technique | Earth Wise

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Carbon dioxide emissions by electricity generating plants, fossil-fuel burning vehicles, and industry produce about 2/3 of the greenhouse gases driving climate change.  Without decreasing these emissions, the earth will continue to get warmer, sea levels will continue to rise, and the world will face more droughts, floods, wildfires, famine and conflict.

Electrification of vehicles and reliance upon renewable energy sources will ultimately drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels and the resultant emissions, but that transition may take too long to reverse the direction of climate change.  In the meantime, there is a great need to find effective and efficient ways to capture emissions from fossil fuel plants. 

Recent research at the University of California, Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and ExxonMobil has developed a new technique for carbon capture.  The technique makes use of metal-organic framework (or MOF) technology.  An MOF, modified with nitrogen-containing amine molecules, captures CO2 and then low-temperature steam is used to flush out the CO2 either to be used or sequestered underground.

Experiments demonstrated the technique to have a six-times greater capacity for removing CO2 from the flue gas of a refinery than current amine-based technology.  It selectively removed 90% of the emitted CO2. 

There is a relatively limited market for captured CO2, so power plants using the capture technology would likely pump the CO2 into the ground, or otherwise sequester it.  The cost of doing this sort of emission scrubbing would have to be facilitated by government policies, such as carbon trading or a carbon tax, which would provide the necessary economic incentive for doing carbon capture and sequestration.

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New technique to capture CO2 could reduce power plant greenhouse gases

Photo courtesy of UC Berkeley.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Buses In Latin America

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Latin America has become increasingly urbanized.  In fact, about 80% of the region’s population lives in cities today and by 2050, that figure could climb to 90%.  Transportation is the largest and fastest-growing source of energy-related emissions in Latin America and accounts for about a third of all of the region’s carbon dioxide emissions. 

Private vehicle ownership is rising in Latin America but at the same time, the region’s rapidly growing cities have increased demand for buses, taxis, and motorcycles.  Currently, an estimated 64,000 people die prematurely every year in Latin America and the Caribbean as a result of air pollution, which is mostly caused by transportation emissions.

Given this situation, major cities across Latin America – from Colombia to Argentina – are starting to adopt electric bus fleets.   Latin America actually has the highest use of buses per person globally.  So, the transition to electric buses is an important step toward meeting climate targets, cutting fuel costs, and improving air quality.

Medellin, Colombia – whose metropolitan area has 3.7 million people – has started to add electric buses to its fleet, the rest of which runs on natural gas.  When new units arrive from China later this year, Medellin will have the second largest electric bus fleet in Latin America, after Santiago, Chile. 

Worldwide, 425,000 electric buses are in operation, 99% in China.  Europe has a couple of thousand while the United States has only 300.  But going forward, and especially in Latin America, electric buses are the wave of the future.  Estimates are that there will be 1.3 million on the roads by 2040.

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An Increasingly Urbanized Latin America Turns to Electric Buses

Photo, posted April 22, 2018, courtesy of Hans Johnson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)