Earth Wise

A look at our changing environment.

You are here: Home / Archives for cars

cars

A Boom In Auto Battery Manufacturing | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Nearly all automobile manufacturers are in a global race to build electric cars and trucks.  There is a rapidly growing need for the battery packs that power those vehicles and therefore manufacturers are in a race to build battery factories to address that need.

The latest battery plant announcement comes from Stellantis – the new company created in 2021 through the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot.  Stellantis aims to sell five million electric cars by 2030, which means they will need a lot of batteries.  They will be spending $2.5 billion in partnership with Samsung to build a battery factory in Kokomo, Indiana.  The facility is expected to create 1,400 jobs.  Stellantis already had announced that it would build a battery factory in Windsor, Ontario in partnership with LG Energy Solutions. 

They are not alone in their aggressive efforts on electric vehicle battery development.  Ford Motor is building two battery plants in Kentucky and a third one in Tennessee.   Ford has recently started production of its F-150 electric pickup truck which has attracted large numbers of pre-orders.  The gas-powered Ford F-150 has been the best-selling vehicle in America for years.

General Motors is opening a new battery production plant in Ohio this summer and has two others under construction in Tennessee and Michigan.   Hyundai plans to spend $5.5 billion on an electric vehicle and battery manufacturing facility near Savannah, Georgia that is expected to begin operations in 2025.

The auto industry has been struggling in recent times, but there is clearly a massive boom underway as the industry makes the transition from internal combustion engines to battery electric power.

**********

Web Links

Stellantis and Samsung to spend $2.5 billion on an electric vehicle battery plant in Indiana

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars On The Rise | Earth Wise           

By Leave a Comment

The first quarter of the year was a tough one for the U.S. auto industry.  Overall sales of cars and trucks were down 15.7% compared with last year.   Automakers have been dealing with shortages of computer chips and other supplies, resulting in slowdowns in production.

The one major exception to the trend has been sales of electric cars.  In the first quarter, U.S. electric vehicle sales were up 76% compared with last year.  This was enough to double EV’s market share to 5.2%, up from 2.5% last year.

Reaching a five percent market share is a significant indicator that electric vehicles are becoming mainstream.  According to many industry analysts, this is just the beginning of a major ramp-up in EV sales.

The strong results in the first quarter were largely driven by one company – namely, Tesla.  Tesla has been expanding rapidly and has been proactive and creative in avoiding delays due to parts shortages.  Tesla’s best-selling car is now the Model Y, which is an SUV implementation of its Model 3 design.  Overall, the company is now producing cars at a rate of more than 1 million per year and has recently opened new manufacturing plants in Texas and in Germany.

But Tesla is not the only story in the world of electric vehicles.  Mass production is beginning for Ford’s F-150 Lightning truck. 

Nissan, Hyundai and Kia have electric cars on the market and shortly near-twin electric models jointly developed by Subaru and Toyota will be available as well.

The electrification of vehicles is an essential step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  With gasoline at painfully high prices, electric cars are more attractive than ever.

**********

Web Links

Inside Clean Energy: US Electric Vehicle Sales Soared in First Quarter, while Overall Auto Sales Slid

Photo, posted October 13, 2017, courtesy of Rob Bertholf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Unhealthy Air | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to the World Health Organization, almost the entire global population – 99% in fact – breathes air that exceeds WHO air quality limits and threatens their health.

Air quality is of great concern everywhere.  Over 6,000 cities in 117 countries monitor air quality, but the people living in those cities are still breathing unhealthy levels of fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide. The WHO is citing these findings as a compelling reason to curb fossil fuel use and to take other steps to reduce air pollution levels. 

There is growing number of studies of the damage air pollution does to the human body.  Even low levels of many air pollutants can cause significant harm.  Particulate matter – especially so-called PM2.5 – is capable of penetrating deep into the lungs and entering the bloodstream, contributing to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory problems. 

Nitrogen dioxide is associated with respiratory diseases – especially asthma – and leads to respiratory symptoms, hospital admissions, and visits to emergency rooms.

The WHO is calling to governments around the world to take additional steps to improve air quality including adopting stricter air quality standards, supporting the transition to clean household energy sources, implementing stricter vehicle emission standards, reducing the use of incineration, and many other actions.

According to the WHO, cities in high-income countries fare better in terms of air quality, but very few places avoid unhealthy air entirely.   Seven million deaths a year are linked to unhealthy air quality.  It is a global crisis that cannot be ignored.

**********

Web Links

Billions of people still breathe unhealthy air: new WHO data

Photo, posted December 1, 2021, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Pickup Trucks | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

There are more and more electric cars on the market as auto manufacturers move toward fleet-wide electrification.  In the United States, pickup trucks are massively popular.  The top three selling vehicles in the country are all trucks, led by the Ford F-Series.  Thus, it is no surprise that automakers are now turning their attention to electric pickup trucks.

Some of the trucks are from established manufacturers like Ford and Chevy and others from new companies like Rivian.  The Ford F-150 Lightning is bound to be a big seller.  There are hundreds of thousands of pre-orders for Tesla’s exotic Cybertruck, now expected to enter the market next year.

A recent study looked at the environmental impact of pickup truck electrification.  The central question is what does the transition to electric trucks mean for the overall decarbonization of the transportation industry?

Researchers from the University of Michigan and the Ford Motor Company conducted a cradle-to-grave assessment of the life cycle of pickup trucks and compared the implications of truck electrification to those of sedans and SUVs.

The study found that replacing an internal combustion-powered vehicle with a battery-powered vehicle results in greater total greenhouse gas emission reductions as the size of the vehicle increases, which is no real surprise considering how much more gas larger vehicles use.

The study also found that manufacturing electric vehicles produces more emissions than gas-powered vehicles, but the impact is offset by savings in their operation.  Breakeven time is little more than a year.

Basically, the results are that replacing gas-powered trucks with electric trucks is even a bigger win for the planet than replacing gas cars with electric cars.  Let’s hope we see plenty of electric trucks on the roads in the near future.

**********

Web Links

Study: Greater greenhouse gas reductions for pickup truck electrification than for other light-duty vehicles

Photo, posted September 22, 2020, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Car Sales Surge | Earth Wise

By 1 Comment

During the fourth quarter of 2021, overall auto sales in the US fell by 21.3% compared to the same quarter of 2020.  At the same time, sales of electric cars grew by 73%.  Is this the beginning of the end for the Gasoline Era, or was it a just an anomaly during the COVID pandemic?

The biggest factor for the big drop in car sales was probably on the supply side.  The ongoing chip shortage as well as other supply-chain problems made it difficult to find many desired vehicles.  Meanwhile, the soaring electric car sales in the US was mostly soaring Tesla sales.  According to Kelley Bluebook, 72% of all electric cars sold in the US in the fourth quarter were Teslas.  For a number of reasons related to its in-house software development and it unified computer architecture, the chip shortage has been far less of a problem for Tesla than for other car brands.  So, Tesla bucked the overall market decline because it actually had cars to sell.

So, once these supply-chain issues are resolved, will the car market return to “normal”?  That is actually unlikely.  Apart from the short-term issues, there are long-term factors that are changing the automobile market.

There is far more public attention on EVs these days.  Multiple commercials during the Superbowl demonstrated that.  All the carmakers are gearing up for an electric future as government policies push for it.   Electric vehicle sales are already booming in Europe.  Cars are fashion products and electric cars are the latest trend.  Electric car sales will continue to grow at an impressive pace this year.  According to many observers, the recent trend could be the beginning of an avalanche.

**********

Web Links

US Electric Car Sales Surge As Overall Car Sales Slip — A Game-Changing Trend?

Photo, posted July 28, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cheaper Electric Cars | Earth Wise

By 1 Comment

The price of the batteries that power electric cars has fallen by about 90% since 2010.  This continuing trend will eventually make EVs less expensive than gas cars.

For many years, researchers have estimated that when battery packs reach the price of $100 per kilowatt-hour of energy storage, electric cars will cost about the same as gasoline-powered vehicles.  In 2021, the average price of lithium-ion battery packs fell to $132 per kilowatt-hour, down 6% from the previous year.  According to analysts, batteries should hit the average of $100 as soon as 2024.

It is not the case that as soon as the $100 level is reached, EVs will abruptly reach cost parity.  Across different manufacturers and vehicle types, the price shift will occur at different rates.  However, by the time batteries reach $60 a kilowatt-hour, EVs will be cheaper than equivalent gasoline models across every vehicle segment.

It is not known exactly when EVs will cost less than gasoline models, but there is little doubt that this point is coming.  We have only been talking about the purchase price of a new vehicle.  When one looks at the total cost of ownership of a vehicle, including fuel, insurance, maintenance, and depreciation, it is a different story.

Because of savings on fuel and maintenance, EVs are already in many if not most cases cheaper to own than gas-powered cars.  The Department of Energy provides an online calculator to help consumers estimate the cost differences between gasoline and electricity.

In any case, the number of electric cars on the market is increasing and the number of gas-powered cars will be shrinking.  Sooner or later, we will all drive electric.

**********

Web Links

Inside Clean Energy: Batteries Got Cheaper in 2021. So How Close Are We to EVs That Cost Less than Gasoline Vehicles?

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Solid State Batteries For Cars | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Today’s electric cars run on lithium-ion batteries, the same sort that power our phones, computers, and many other consumer electronic devices.  These batteries are far superior to the batteries of the past, offering long-life, high-energy density, and recyclable components.

Lithium-ion batteries do have their drawbacks.  They may be lighter than older battery technologies, but because the electrolytes in the batteries are liquid, they are still fairly heavy.  The huge number of them in an electric car adds up to a considerable amount of weight.  In addition, the flammability of the electrolytes can lead to explosions or fires if the batteries are damaged or exposed to extreme temperatures.

Solid-state batteries are an alternative technology that contain a solid electrolyte.  Such batteries are lighter, have higher energy density, offer more range, and recharge much more quickly than lithium-ion batteries. They have been used for years in some small devices like cardiac pacemakers, RFIDs, and some wearable devices.

For all these benefits, scaling up production to the level needed to be used in cars is an expensive and challenging endeavor.  The hope is that with sufficient effort, the result will be smaller, lighter battery packs for cars that can be charged in minutes and provide extended range.

Nissan Motor Company has recently announced that it is investing $17.6 billion over the next five years towards developing solid-state batteries for cars.  No doubt other companies will also be working on the technology.

Lithium-ion batteries have proven to be quite practical for powering vehicles.  But if solid-state batteries can meet the challenges of scaled up production, the lithium-ion era might end up being a relatively brief one.

**********

Web Links

Nissan to Spend $18 Billion Developing a Cheaper, More Powerful EV Battery

Photo, posted November 13, 2018, courtesy of FirstEnergy Corp via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Solar Canopies | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

There are plenty of solar panels on residential rooftops but there are also increasing numbers of arrays of them on croplands, arid lands, and grasslands. Large solar arrays are mostly built in open spaces like these rather than in developed areas.  The reason is that it is cheaper to build on undeveloped land than on rooftops or construct covered parking lots.

However, building on undeveloped land is not necessarily the smartest idea.   Undeveloped land is a dwindling resource that is needed for many different things:  growing food, sheltering wildlife, storing and purifying water, preventing erosion, and sequestering carbon. 

Putting solar panels on parking lots has the appeal that they are abundant, close to electricity customers, and are on land that already has been stripped of much of its biological value.

Putting a solar canopy over a parking lot can produce large amounts of electricity and has the added benefit that it would provide shade for cars.  For example, a typical Walmart supercenter might have a five-acre parking lot, which is enough to support a 3-megawatt solar array.  If Walmart put solar canopies on all of its 3,500+ super centers, it would provide 11 gigawatts of solar power – as much as a dozen large coal-fired power plants.

Solar canopies are still pretty uncommon, but some examples are ones at four DC Metro rail stations, one at JFK Airport, and a large one at the Rutgers University Piscataway campus.

Building parking lot solar canopies is much more expensive than putting solar arrays on open space, but they do eventually pay for themselves. Despite active opposition by utility and fossil fuel interests, solar canopies may eventually be a common sight.

**********

Web Links

Why Putting Solar Canopies on Parking Lots Is a Smart Green Move

Photo, posted January 10, 2020, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Iron Flow Batteries | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Lithium-ion batteries power computers, cell phones, and increasingly, automobiles.  They started out being rather expensive but have become dramatically cheaper over the last decade, with prices dropping about 90%.  Batteries are needed to store clean power from wind and solar generation and lithium-ion batteries are increasingly being used for that purpose as well.

Utility-scale energy storage requires substantial battery installations and battery cost is still very much an inhibiting factor in the widespread adoption of the technology.  Lithium-ion battery costs continue to drop but because they require expensive materials like lithium and cobalt, there are limits to how low their prices are likely to get.

As a result, researchers have continued to seek ways to produce batteries made out of cheaper materials.  Among the more promising technologies are flow batteries, which are rechargeable batteries in which electrolyte flows through electrochemical cells from tanks. 

Flow batteries are much larger than lithium-ion batteries and include physical pumps to move electrolytes.  They typically are sold inside shipping containers.  Clearly, such batteries are not suitable for use in vehicles, much less in consumer electronics.  Nevertheless, they represent a practical option for grid storage.

A company called ESS has developed an iron flow battery suitable for utility energy storage.  Clean energy firm CSB Energy plans to install iron flow batteries at several solar projects across the U.S. that will store enough energy to provide power 50,000 homes for a day.  According to ESS, the iron-based batteries should sell for about half the price of lithium-ion batteries by 2025 and be able to store energy for longer periods.

**********

Web Links

New Iron-Based Batteries Offer an Alternative to Lithium

Photo, posted March 21, 2021, courtesy of Nenad Stojkovic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Banning Gas Cars | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The transition to electric vehicles from gas-powered vehicles is essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as air pollution in general.  Currently, transportation is responsible for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.

There is no doubt that there is surging interest in electric cars.  There are now millions of them being sold around the world each year.  But they still represent a small fraction of new car sales in most places.  Notable exceptions are several European countries such as Norway and Switzerland where plug-in vehicles are dominant.  In the United States, on the other hand, EVs still represent less than 3% of new car sales.

Given the urgency in reducing vehicle emissions, many countries around the world have devised plans, goals, or laws to end the sale of gasoline cars.  Gas car bans vary quite a bit around the world, but they are being implemented in many places.

There are 28 countries and US states that have imposed gas car bans to take effect over the next five to 20 years.  These include European countries like Norway, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Sweden, Scotland, Slovenia, the UK, France, and Spain.  Asian countries include South Korea, India, Japan, China, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan.  In the Middle East, Israel and Egypt have announced bans.  Here in the US, New York and California both have bans starting in 2035.  Canada also has announced a ban.

Car manufacturers have seen the writing on the wall.  Most have started adding EVs to their lineups.  Many have announced their own timetables for phasing out gas cars entirely.  There are more than 15 new electric models available this year and there are many more to follow next year.

**********

Web Links

Over 25 Countries And U.S. States Are Planning to Ban Gasoline Powered Cars

Photo, posted January 24, 2009, courtesy of Oran Viriyincy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wireless EV Charging | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Michigan, historically the focus of the American auto industry, has announced a new initiative to develop the nation’s first wireless charging infrastructure on a public road.  The Inductive Vehicle Charging Pilot is a partnership between the Michigan Department of Transportation and the Office of Future Mobility and Electrification.

The idea is to deploy an electrified roadway system that allows electric buses, shuttles, and vehicles to charge while driving, allowing them to operate continuously without stopping to charge.  In principle, such electrified roadways have the potential to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and turn public streets into safe and sustainable shared energy platforms.  This is especially valuable for drivers who might not have easy access to conventional charging facilities.

The pilot program is seeking proposals to design, fund, evaluate, iterate, test, and implement an inductive charging system along a one-mile stretch of state-operated roadway in Michigan.

The basic concept is to embed coils in a road that will convey electricity to cars outfitted with coils of their own.  It is much like the wireless charging pads used to power up smartphones.  Indiana is pursuing a similar project in the next couple of years.

Clearly driving through a one mile stretch of roadway for minute or two is not going to provide a whole lot of energy by whatever coupling mechanism is used. Scaling up the technology represents a significant challenge at the very least.  How practical such a scheme is from both a technology and an economic perspective remains to be seen.  In any case, it is interesting to see that states are looking at various alternatives for providing access to charging infrastructure to the growing population of electrified vehicles.

**********

Web Links

Governor Whitmer Announces Initiative for Nation-Leading Wireless EV Charging Infrastructure in Michigan

Photo, posted September 6, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electrifying The Federal Fleet | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The federal government owns and operates about 645,000 vehicles.  Among them are about 200,000 passenger vehicles, 78,000 heavy-duty trucks, 47,000 vans, 847 ambulances, and three limousines.   About 225,000 vehicles are operated by the Postal Service.  

Each year, these vehicles are driven about 4.5 billion miles and use about 400 million gallons of gasoline, producing 3.5 million tons of greenhouse gases.

President Biden signed an executive order in January directing federal officials to devise a plan for converting the entire fleet to clean and zero-emission vehicles.  So far, the work has been slow. 

According to a new report from Atlas Public Policy, accelerating the push for electric vehicles in the federal fleet could save taxpayers billions of dollars.

Electric vehicles have lower fueling and maintenance costs as well as a smaller environmental impact.  According to the report, the government could replace 40% of its light-duty vehicles and buses not owned by the Postal Service with cheaper plug-in alternatives by 2025.  By 2030, it could replace 97% of such vehicles with EVs for a lifetime savings of more than $1 billion.  Furthermore, by 2025, it would be possible to replace nearly all mail trucks with EVs for a savings of $2.9 billion.

The federal fleet represents an opportunity to encourage transportation electrification to happen much more quickly.  Apart from the economic and environmental benefits, having an electrified federal fleet would increase public awareness of the practicality and benefits of electric vehicles.

**********

Web Links

Push to Electrify Federal Fleet Could Yield Billions in Savings by 2030

Photo, posted May 14, 2015, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

It is widely believed that electrification is the future for vehicles.  The only question is how long the transition will take.  Predictions are all over the map, but the recent trend is to revise those predictions to say it will happen sooner than previously thought.

A recent report from the international accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that EV sales in the US, China, and Europe will surpass those of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles five years sooner than previously expected.  The report forecasts that fossil-fueled vehicles will represent less than 1% of global sales by 2045, taking their place among other historical but essentially abandoned technologies.

Europe is expected to be the leader in EV adoption.  The forecast is that EVs will surpass legacy vehicles by 2028.  China is expected to follow by 2033.  The US is lagging behind, but even here, electrics are expected to achieve a majority of car sales by 2036.

Plug-in vehicle sales have surpassed a 10% market share in California and Tesla now has a 1.7% share of the total US car market.  Norway is the global EV leader with 3 out of 4 car buyers choosing electrics.  In that country, Tesla’s Model 3 is the top-selling vehicle of any kind.  In Switzerland, 40% of car sales are EVs or hybrids.

There are many variables that will affect the timetable for the EV transition.  Among them are the timetable for widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology, the effects of policy initiatives by governments around the world, the development of charging infrastructure, and the evolution of electricity generation and energy storage.

In any case, looking at the product roadmap for virtually every automobile manufacturer makes it clear that electric cars are the future.

*********

Web Links

Ernst & Young: Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected

Photo, posted April 25, 2021, courtesy of Rutger van der Maar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Busting Electric Vehicle Myths | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

From the early days of hybrid vehicles right on through the current booming market for electric cars, there has been the contention by some people that these cars are responsible for comparable or even greater amounts of greenhouse gas emissions over their product lifetimes.  The arguments generally centered around the carbon costs of creating batteries for the cars as well as the emissions associated with generating the electricity used to charge them.

A new study published by the International Council for Clean Transportation reports a life cycle assessment (or LCA) that considers every source of carbon generated from the cradle to the grave of the vehicle.

Included in the assessment are the mining costs of the lithium to make batteries, the transportation of batteries across the world by container ship, the end-of-life burden, the mix of energy generation in various places around the world, and so on.

The results of the analysis are that even in India and China, which are the biggest burners of coal and oil on earth, it still results in lower emissions to drive an EV instead of an internal combustion vehicle.

Lifetime emissions of today’s average medium-size EVs are lower than comparable gasoline cars by 66-69% in Europe, 60-68% in the US, 37-45% in China, and 19-34% in India.  As electricity generation continues to further decarbonize, all these numbers will only get better.  While it is somewhat more carbon-intensive to manufacture an EV, it doesn’t take very long in the car’s life to come out ahead owning one.

Early skeptics of EVs and hybrids had more legitimate concerns a decade or so ago, but the advantages of these vehicles are now unambiguous.

**********

Web Links

One of the Biggest Myths About EVs is Busted in New Study

Photo, posted December 30, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Spending Habits And Carbon Emissions | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to a new Swedish study recently published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology, men spend their money on greenhouse gas-emitting goods and services, such as meat and fuel, at a much higher rate than women. 

The study looked at the carbon emissions created by consumption among categories like food, clothing, furniture, and vacations to see if households could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by buying different products and services.  The research team reviewed Swedish government data through 2012 and analyzed the spending habits of households, single men, and single women. 

According to the study, single Swedish men spent about 2% more money overall than single Swedish women.  But the stuff that the men bought created 16% more greenhouse gases than the stuff that the women bought.  That’s because men were more likely to spend money on high-emitting categories, like fuel for cars, while women spent more on less-emitting categories like furniture, health care, and clothing. 

For both men and women, vacations were a major source of emissions, accounting for approximately one-third of their total carbon footprint. 

While the carbon impact of men’s and women’s diets were nearly equal, men spent more money on meat while women spent more on dairy.  Both meat and dairy production are major sources of global greenhouse gas emissions.   

The study found single people were responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than married people or people in households. 

According to the research team, people could decrease their carbon emissions nearly 40% by making more environmentally-friendly choices, including switching to plant-based foods and traveling by train as opposed to flying or driving when possible. 

**********   

Web Links

Men have a bigger carbon footprint than women, climate study finds

Photo, posted June 17, 2012, courtesy of Stephen Ausmus/USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Is Peak Oil Here? | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

For many years there has been talk of “peak oil”, the point at which rising world oil consumption would peak and then start declining.  Some analysts have been predicting that this could happen by the 2030s.   But the coronavirus pandemic drove a 9% slump in oil demand in 2020 that some economists are saying might never be entirely reversed.

There are three major forces driving down the world’s appetite for oil:  decarbonization of economies to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, declining demand for oil as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are increasingly adopted, and detoxification as cities act to curb particulates and emissions from burning petroleum.

The largest single factor is electric vehicles.  Automobiles currently consume almost half of the world’s oil.  As of the end of 2020, there were an estimated 10 million electric cars as well as more than 600,000 electric buses and trucks.  This is still less than 1% of all vehicles, but 5% of all new cars being bought are now electric and the number is growing rapidly.  Experts estimate that nearly a quarter of global car sales will be electric vehicles by 2025 and many car manufacturers are promising to sell only electric cars within the next 10 years.

The decline in oil demand is pretty much inevitable at this point.  The main question is how quickly it will happen.  Road transport makes up 48% of global oil demand, petrochemicals account for 14%, aviation 7%, and shipping 6%.  Ultimately all these things are likely to diminish over time. 

Only time will tell, but the long-awaited arrival of peak oil may already have happened.

**********

Web Links

Amid Troubles for Fossil Fuels, Has the Era of ‘Peak Oil’ Arrived?

Photo, posted April 14, 2019, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Have We Reached Peak Internal Combustion Engine? | Earth Wise

By 1 Comment

According to new analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sales of gas-powered cars may well have peaked in 2017, representing a significant milestone in the transition to electric vehicles.

Demand for gas cars dropped in 2018 and 2019, and then plummeted in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.  While sales are surely picking up as the pandemic ebbs, the increasing demand (and supply as well) for plug-in vehicles is likely to put gas-powered cars in a state of permanent decline.

Global EV sales are projected to go from 3.1 million last year to 14 million in 2025.  The growth is being driven by falling battery prices, government policies, and increasing choices of vehicles.  Virtually all automobile manufacturers are introducing electric vehicles over the next couple of years and increasing numbers of them are planning a complete transition to EVs in the near future.  Projections are that EVs will account for the majority of new car sales by 2035.

While all this progress is encouraging, there are still over a billion gas- and diesel-powered cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly.  The current average operating life of cars here in the US is 12 years.

To reach the net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050 as many governments have mandated, additional policies and regulations will be needed.  For example, electric cars will need to account for essentially all new sales by 2035, not just the majority.  Reaching net-zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, including trucks and heavy commercial vehicles that have barely started to become electrified.

**********

Web Links

New Analysis Suggests We Have Already Hit Peak Internal Combustion Engine

Photo, posted December 23, 2017, courtesy of Davide Gambino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Plunging Cost Of Lithium-Ion Batteries | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Lithium-ion batteries are the power source for phones, laptops, and electric cars.  These rechargeable batteries were first commercially introduced in 1991.  Since then, their performance has improved, and their cost has dropped tremendously.

There have been dramatic cost declines in many advanced technologies.   The price of big-screen televisions is a prime example.  Most people think of solar photovoltaic panels as the most exceptional case.  In the 1970s, solar panels cost over $100 per watt. Today, they are 20 cents a watt.

How much lithium-ion batteries have dropped in price has been somewhat unclear.  This is because much of the information about battery costs is in the form of closely held corporate data.  Most lithium-ion batteries are not sold directly to consumers but rather are built into consumer electronics and cars.  Large companies like Apple and Tesla buy batteries by the millions or manufacture them themselves, and the true costs are not publicly disclosed.

Recently, MIT researchers have carried out an extensive analysis of lithium-ion battery costs over the past three decades.  The researchers found that the cost of these batteries has dropped by 97% over that period.

It is clear that the decline in battery costs has been an enabler of the recent growth in sales of electric vehicles.  It is also clear that further declines in lithium-ion battery costs are likely to increase the batteries’ usage in stationary applications such as storing energy from intermittent green power sources like solar and wind.

The batteries have ever-improving energy density (energy stored within a given volume) and specific energy (energy stored within a given mass.)  As lithium-ion batteries continue to get better and cheaper, their role in the world continues to grow.

**********

Web Links

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

Photo, posted October 26, 2020, courtesy of Ajay Suresh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Scaling Up Green Hydrogen | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The global hydrogen market generates about $150 billion dollars a year.  The bulk of the market consists of hydrogen used to produce ammonia, refine oil, and produce methanol.  Advocates for hydrogen foresee a $600 billion a year market based on power and industry uses, mobility and transport uses, chemical feedstocks, and construction.  But the problem with expanding the use of hydrogen is that the vast majority of hydrogen in use today is produced from fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal and producing it creates carbon dioxide emissions.

The great hope of the industry is “green hydrogen”- hydrogen produced either without using fossil fuels at all or by capturing and storing the emissions generated. The most likely approach is electrolysis – using electricity to produce hydrogen from water.

Billions of dollars are being invested by both governments and by large oil companies in a race to scale up electrolysis and make it economically attractive.  According to the Hydrogen Council industry lobby group, at least $300 billion is expected to be invested globally over the next decade aimed at developing the green hydrogen that could one day meet almost a fifth of global energy demand.

Many argue that producing green hydrogen with electrolysis is an extremely inefficient way to utilize renewable energy.  Critics of hydrogen-powered vehicles particularly make this argument.   But industrial applications of hydrogen that currently use large amounts of fossil fuels – such as steel manufacturing – may be places where green hydrogen would make a real dent in global emissions.

The race to clean up hydrogen is definitely on.

**********

Web Links

The Race to Scale Up Green Hydrogen to Help Solve Some of the World’s Dirtiest Energy Problems

Photo, posted December 16, 2020, courtesy of Sharon Hahn Darlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

How Green Are Electric Cars? | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Environmental groups, governments, and automakers are all promoting electric vehicles as an important technology to combat climate change.  For example, GM plans to stop selling gas-powered cars by 2035 and Volvo intends to be all-electric by 2030.

There are still those who question how green electric vehicles actually are.  All products and technologies do have their environmental impacts.  In general, today’s electric cars produce significantly fewer planet-warming emissions than gas-powered cars, but there are factors that affect the results for specific vehicles.

The biggest issue is the source of electricity used to charge up the cars.  In places where coal still provides a substantial fraction of electric generation, electric cars don’t fare as well.  But coal’s contributions to the grid are declining rapidly and even cleaner fossil fuels like natural gas are gradually being replaced by green generation from wind and solar power.  If the grid was entirely carbon-free, then there would be no emissions associated with operating the vehicle.

MIT has created an interactive online tool that incorporates a comprehensive set of factors contributing to the emissions associated with cars:  what it takes to manufacture the cars, how much gasoline conventional cars burn, and where the electricity to charge electric vehicles comes from.

The tool provides information like the average amount of carbon dioxide emitted for every mile driven over a car’s lifetime. 

Results will vary with location and various other vehicle factors, but in the great majority of cases, electric cars are much greener than gasoline cars, and as the grid becomes greener, the cars will become greener as well.

**********

Web Links

CarbonCounter 2021

How Green Are Electric Vehicles?

Photo, posted January 29, 2020, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)