In climate science, tipping points are critical thresholds that, once crossed, lead to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system. For example, surpassing a 1.5 degree C rise in global warming has long been considered a tipping point for the planet.
According to a new study led by researchers from University College London, climate change will abruptly push species over tipping points as their geographic ranges reach unforeseen temperatures.
In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, the research team analyzed data from more than 35,000 species of animals and seagrasses from every continent and ocean basin, alongside climate projections up to 2100. The researchers found a consistent trend: for many animals, the thermal exposure threshold will be crossed for much of their geographic range within the same decade.
The thermal exposure threshold is defined as the first five consecutive years where temperatures consistently exceed the most extreme monthly temperature experienced by a species across its geographic range over recent history.
The researchers also found that the extent of global warming will make a big difference for animals. If the planet warms by just 1.5°C, 15% of species studied will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30% of their current geographic range in a single decade. But this figure will double to 30% of species at 2.5°C of warming.
Since their data provides an early warning system, the researchers hope that their findings will help species conservation efforts.
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Climate change to push species over abrupt tipping points
Photo, posted May 27, 2017, courtesy of Sarah Lemarié via Flickr.
Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio
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