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Summers are getting hotter

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Climate scientists have warned for decades that a seemingly small change in the global average temperature can lead to large changes in extreme heat.  So far, the world has warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius (or 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and that has been enough to cause big changes in summer heat.

This past summer was the hottest on record.  The heat fueled deadly wildfires across the Mediterranean.  Record highs caused Chinese cities to suspend outdoor work.  Weeks of triple-digit temperatures in the U.S. southwest led to heat-related hospitalizations and deaths.

But not every recent summer has been hotter everywhere.  Even this summer saw average or even colder than average temperatures in some places.  But the distribution of summer temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere has shifted dramatically in recent decades.

Less than 1% of summers in the middle of the 20th century were extremely hot for their location.  Over the past decade, more than a quarter of summers were extremely hot for their location.

Between 1950 and 1980, about a third of summers across the hemisphere were near average in temperature; a third were considered cold; a third were hot.  Only a few summers in a few places were either extremely cold or extremely hot.  Over the past decade, the vast majority of summers have either been hot or extremely hot.

We experience summer weather in the location where we spend our time, and it is entirely possible that our own experience may have been unremarkable.  We may even have had a cool, rainy summer.  But on a global scale, summers are getting hotter and hotter and making it harder to ignore what is happening to our planet.

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It’s Not Your Imagination. Summers Are Getting Hotter.

Photo, posted August 21, 2022, courtesy of Bonnie Moreland via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Why Was the Summer So Hot? | Earth Wise

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Many places around the world have experienced extraordinary heat waves this summer.  The 31 days of high temperatures 110 degrees or more in Phoenix is a prime example but many other places suffered from extreme and relentless heat.  Why did this happen?

The overarching reason is climate change, which has warmed the Earth by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the preindustrial era.  This change on a global level is enough to make heatwaves far more likely.  For example, the concurrent heatwaves in Europe and North America were 1000 times more likely to have occurred because of climate change.

But there hasn’t been a sudden increase in global temperature that would make this summer so much hotter.  Instead, what really has happened is three other factors all came into play at the same time.

The first is the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai, which is an underwater volcano in the South Pacific.  That eruption did not produce much in the way of planet-cooling aerosols in the atmosphere.  Instead, it vaporized huge amounts of seawater, sending water vapor into the atmosphere, which helps trap heat.

The second is a change in the amount of energy radiating from the sun.  That actually rises and falls a small amount every 11 years.  Currently, it is in the upswing and will reach its next peak in 2025.

Finally, there is the arrival of the El Niño in the Pacific, whose balmy ocean waters radiate heat into the air.

The combination of all these factors when added to the already warming climate is a recipe for temperatures to soar to uncharted highs.  We can expect more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods, and other sorts of extreme weather.

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It’s Not Just Climate Change: Three Other Factors Driving This Summer’s Extreme Heat

Photo, posted February 27, 2017, courtesy of Giuseppe Milo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Phoenix Is Frying | Earth Wise

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The mythical Phoenix is a bird that repeatedly dies in a fire of its own making.  During July, the five million inhabitants of greater Phoenix Arizona may have felt like they were reliving that myth as multiple temperature records were shattered in a massive heatwave.

On June 30, the high temperature in Phoenix was 110 degrees.  From then on, the daily highs were relentlessly at or above 110 degrees, topping out at 119 on July 20.  The previous record for consecutive days at or above 110 was 18 set in June 1974.  The streak continued all the way until July 31, when incoming desert monsoons resulted in the high temperature dropping to 107 degrees – ending the streak at 31 days.  Along the way, there were 16 days with temperatures at or above 115 degrees. 

During the month, there were 17 consecutive days when the lowest temperature in Phoenix was at least 90 degrees.  The previous record for that was 7 days, set in 2020.  Because of these lofty low temperatures, July was also the hottest month in terms of average temperature with a reading well above 102 degrees.  It was the first time that the average temperature has ever been in three digits.  The previous record was 99.1 degrees in 2020.

Phoenix is an extreme case, but it was not alone in having a hot July.  Globally, it was the hottest July on record that included major heat waves in the U.S., Mexico, China, southern Europe, and elsewhere.  The daily record for the hottest average temperature on Earth ever measured was also broken several times during the month.

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Phoenix heat wave is shattering temperature records

Photo, posted September 22, 2022, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And Species Tipping Points | Earth Wise

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In climate science, tipping points are critical thresholds that, once crossed, lead to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system. For example, surpassing a 1.5 degree C rise in global warming has long been considered a tipping point for the planet. 

According to a new study led by researchers from University College London, climate change will abruptly push species over tipping points as their geographic ranges reach unforeseen temperatures. 

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, the research team analyzed data from more than 35,000 species of animals and seagrasses from every continent and ocean basin, alongside climate projections up to 2100.  The researchers found a consistent trend:  for many animals, the thermal exposure threshold will be crossed for much of their geographic range within the same decade. 

The thermal exposure threshold is defined as the first five consecutive years where temperatures consistently exceed the most extreme monthly temperature experienced by a species across its geographic range over recent history. 

The researchers also found that the extent of global warming will make a big difference for animals.  If the planet warms by just 1.5°C, 15% of species studied will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30% of their current  geographic range in a single decade.  But this figure will double to 30% of species at 2.5°C of warming.

Since their data provides an early warning system, the researchers hope that their findings will help species conservation efforts. 

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Climate change to push species over abrupt tipping points

Photo, posted May 27, 2017, courtesy of Sarah Lemarié via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Assessing The Planet’s Most Unique Birds | Earth Wise

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Birds come in a huge variety of shapes, sizes and plumages.  The physical attributes of birds are adaptations that have taken countless millennia to develop, and physical attributes are closely related to the roles birds play in their environment.   

According to a new study led by researchers from the University College London in the U.K., bird species with extreme or uncommon combinations of traits have the highest risk of extinction.  Losing these bird species and the unique roles they play in the environment, including seed dispersal, pollination and predation, could have severe consequences on the health of ecosystems.

In the study, which was recently published in the British Ecological Society journal Functional Ecology, the researchers analyzed the extinction risk and physical attributes of 99% of all living bird species.  The research team used a dataset of measurements collected from living birds and museum specimens.  The measurements included things like beak size and shape, and the length of wings, tails and legs.  The researchers combined this data with extinction risk, and then ran simulations to see what would happen if the most threatened birds were to go extinct.

Some of the bird species that are both most unique and most threatened include the Christmas Frigatebird and the Bristle-thighed Curlew.  Kiwis were excluded from the study because the researchers viewed them as extreme morphological outliers.

While most unique birds were also classified as threatened on the Red List, the research was unable to show what links uniqueness in birds to extinction risk

The research team warns that if more isn’t done to protect these threatened species and avoid extinctions, the functioning of ecosystems will be dramatically disrupted.

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Planet’s most unique birds at higher risk of extinction

Photo, posted June 25, 2012, courtesy of Kristine Sowl / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Hot Year In Europe | Earth Wise

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This past summer was marked by some devastating heat waves in Europe.  Through November, the UK, Germany, and France have experienced their hottest year on record.

The UK has experienced its warmest year since 1884 and, in fact, all the top ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2002.

In France, the average temperature for the year is a few tenths of a degree higher than the  previous record, which was set in 2020.

In Germany, the first 11 months of the year saw a record for average temperature.  Its previous record was also set in 2020.

All three countries saw a spike in heat-related mortality as result of the summer heatwaves.  England and Wales reported 3,271 excess deaths during the summer.  France reported 2,816 excess deaths during its three heat waves.  In Germany, an estimated 4,500 people died as a result of extreme heat.

There are multiple effects of climate change which include more frequent heat waves in Europe.  A recent study showed that European summers are warming twice as fast as the global average.  In fact, summer temperatures across much of the European continent have already risen by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 2 degrees Celsius, which is the feared level of global climate increase that nations around the world are trying to stave off.

Worldwide, 2022 will rank among the top ten warmest years on record but will most likely not be the warmest.   That being said, the past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest years on record.  The US will also see one of its ten warmest years, although not the warmest.

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UK, Germany, France on Pace for Their Hottest Year on Record

Photo, posted April 23, 2022, courtesy of Jose A. via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Moving Endangered Species | Earth Wise

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People have intentionally or accidentally introduced numerous invasive species to habitats around the world.  At the same time, the planet’s wildlife is in a steep decline.  A recent study estimated that the populations of over 5,000 vertebrate species have declined by an average of nearly 70% since 1970.  A United Nations report warns that human activity has threatened as many as a million species with extinction.

With all of this as a background, there is climate change that is altering the habitats of the world’s species – warming lakes and oceans, turning forests into grasslands, tundra into woodland, and melting glaciers.  In response to these changes, living things are rearranging themselves, migrating to more hospitable locations.  But many species are just not capable of finding more suitable habitats on their own.

Conservationists are now increasingly considering the use of assisted migration. In some cases, when a species’ critical habitat has been irreversibly altered or destroyed, agencies are establishing experimental populations outside of the species’ historical range.  Such actions are often deemed extreme but may be increasingly necessary.

However, clear-cut cases are relatively rare.  More likely, it is a more difficult judgement call as to whether assisted migration is a good idea or is possibly a threat to the ecosystem of the species’ new location.  The relative dearth of assisted migration experiments is less likely a result of legal barriers than it is a lack of scientific and societal consensus on the practice. Scientists are now trying to develop risk-analysis frameworks that various agencies can use in considering potential assisted migration experiments. 

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Last Resort: Moving Endangered Species in Order to Save Them

Photo, posted March 18, 2010, courtesy of Jean via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Hot Year With Record GHG Levels | Earth Wise

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Last year was a year that saw rising temperatures and rising levels of greenhouse gases.  2021 was the fifth-hottest year on record.  The average global temperature was nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius or 2.1 Fahrenheit degrees higher than the preindustrial average.  The past seven years were the hottest ever by a significant margin.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 414 parts per million, compared with preindustrial levels of 280 parts per million.  Concentrations of methane reached 1876 parts per billion, the highest levels ever recorded. 

Apart from these global measurements, local and regional weather saw the effects of the heating planet.  Extreme temperatures were common with the hottest summer in Europe, heatwaves in the Mediterranean, and unprecedented high temperatures in North America.

The West Coast of the US, northeast Canada, Greenland, and parts of north Africa and the Middle East all experienced the highest above-average temperatures.  However, some places, including Australia, Antarctica, Siberia, and much of the Pacific Ocean often saw below-average temperatures, even though the same places occasionally experienced record high temperatures.

The Covid-19 pandemic and its economic disruptions continued to lead to some reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but in the US, emissions from energy use and industry nonetheless grew 6.2% in 2021 after falling more than 10% in 2020.

Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations are continuing to increase each year and don’t appear to be slowing down.  As long as this situation persists, global temperatures will continue to rise, and extreme and erratic weather will be more and more commonplace.

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2021 Rated One of the Hottest Years Ever as CO2 Levels Hit Record High

Photo, posted November 11, 2011, courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Arctic Bus | Earth Wise

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People have built vehicles for all sorts of extreme environments.  There are deep-sea exploration vessels and there have been lunar and Mars rovers.  But one thing that hasn’t existed so far are buses to transport groups of people around in extreme conditions in the Arctic.  Engineers at two Russian Universities are developing a passenger bus for riding in the Far North.   The project is being funded by the Russian Federation Ministry of Science and Higher Education and the URAL Automobile Manufacturing Plant.

The requirements for the vehicle are daunting.  The bus must be operable at extreme temperatures – 60 below zero Fahrenheit and lower – and have no difficulties even in challenging off-road conditions.

Current Arctic crew buses are not capable of getting through snow blockages and the all-terrain tracked vehicles that can get through them do not have sufficient passenger capacity. In addition to being able to go through snowbanks, the bus should be able to float on water for an hour.

Apart from its ability to withstand harsh Arctic conditions, the bus will also have a quarters module.  This means that it will have an autonomous life-support system for passengers in case of emergency.  The quarters module will be designed to sustain up to 20 people for up to 24 hours.  The module might also be used to hold medical equipment, thereby enabling practitioners to reach remote settlements and treat patients. 

The first tests of prototypes for the bus will be conducted in the near future.  The project aims to have the new Arctic Bus design complete and ready for manufacture by the end of 2023 and it will go into production in 2024.

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“Arctic Bus” Being Readied to Be Tested in the Far North

Photo, posted April 21, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Sixth Mass Extinction | Earth Wise

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Extinction is a natural part of life.  Plants and animals disappear all the time.  When one species goes extinct, its place in the ecosystem is typically filled by another.  The so-called normal rate of extinction is thought to be somewhere between 0.1 and 1 species per 10,000 species per 100 years.

A mass extinction event is when species disappear at a much faster clip than they can be replaced.  By definition, mass extinction is when about three-quarters of the world’s species are lost in a short amount of time on a geologic scale, which is measured in millions of years.  

There have been five previous mass extinction events throughout the history of life on earth.  Today, many experts warn that a sixth mass extinction event is already underway – the first since dinosaurs were wiped out some 65 million years ago.  While previous mass extinctions were the result of extreme natural phenomena like volcanic eruptions and asteroid strikes, this one is a result of human activities. 

Researchers from the University of Hawai’i at Manoa and the National Museum of Natural History in France recently published a comprehensive assessment of evidence of this ongoing extinction event.  The researchers estimated that since the year 1500, Earth could already have lost between 7.5% and 13% of the two million known species on Earth.  This amounts to a staggering 150,000 to 260,000 species.

While mitigating the effects of climate change and reducing the rates of habitat loss would help, raising awareness of this crisis and its fallout for all life forms – including us – would be most effective in driving change. 

The time we have to avoid dramatic consequences is rapidly running out. 

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Strong evidence shows Sixth Mass Extinction of global biodiversity in progress

Photo, posted September 18, 2015, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Global Flood Risk From Melting Ice | Earth Wise

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Approximately 10% of the land area on Earth is covered by ice.  This includes glaciers, ice caps, and the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.  Nearly 70% of all fresh water on earth is locked away in ice.  If all this land ice were to melt, global sea levels would rise by more than 200 feet. 

According to new research led by researchers at the University of Leeds in the U.K., global warming is causing extreme ice melting events in Greenland to become more frequent and more intense over the past 40 years, leading to an increased risk of flooding worldwide.   

According to the findings, which were recently published in the journal Nature Communications, approximately 3.85 trillion tons of ice has melted from the surface of Greenland and into the ocean during the past decade alone.  That’s enough melted ice to cover all of New York City with nearly 15,000 feet of water. 

Rising sea levels threaten the lives and livelihoods of those living in coastal communities around the world.  Beyond the obvious risk of flooding in low-lying areas, rising seas also disrupt marine ecosystems that many coastal communities rely on for food and work.       

Rising sea levels can also alter patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation, which in turn affect weather conditions around the planet.

Estimates from models suggest that melting ice from Greenland will contribute between 1 inch and 9 inches to global sea level rise by 2100. 

These findings are just another reminder of how we need to act urgently to mitigate climate change if we want to prevent the worst-case scenarios from becoming reality. 

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Increased frequency of extreme ice melting in Greenland raises global flood risk

Photo, posted April 21, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Record Low For Lake Mead | Earth Wise

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Lake Mead is the reservoir that was formed by the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River.  The lake spans the Arizona-Nevada border.  It is the largest reservoir in the United States in terms of water capacity.  The lake is part of a system that supplies water to at least 40 million people in seven states and in Northern Mexico.

As of August 22, this year, Lake Mead was filled to just 35% of its capacity.  This low water level is happening while 95% of the land in nine Western states is under some level of drought conditions and 64% of the land is under extreme drought conditions.  A so-called megadrought has been going on for 22 years and may be the worst dry spell in the region in twelve centuries.

As of the end of July, the water elevation at the Hoover Dam was 1,067 feet above sea level, the lowest it has been since April 1937 when the lake was still being filled after dam construction.  The level has dropped by 132 feet since July 2000.  At maximum capacity, Lake Mead reaches an elevation of 1,220 feet and holds 9.3 trillion gallons of water.

With Lake Mead at 35% of capacity, Lake Powell on the Colorado at 31%, and the entire Lower Colorado system at 40%, water allocations for the coming water year are being cut back. Mexico will see a 5% reduction, Nevada will be cut 7%, and Arizona will lose 18% of its apportionment.   This unprecedented official declaration of a water shortage demonstrates the severity of the drought and low reservoir conditions.

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Lake Mead Drops to a Record Low

Photo, posted August 7, 2018, courtesy of Renee Grayson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

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In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Hottest June | Earth Wise

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A series of heatwaves from coast to coast caused June 2021 to be the hottest June on record in the U.S. The average June temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 72.6 degrees Fahrenheit, making it the hottest June in 127 years of record keeping and breaking the previous record set in 2016 by nearly a full degree. Eight states had their hottest June on record and six others marked their second hottest June.

One of the most extreme heatwaves in modern history impacted the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. and western Canada late in the month.  Temperature records were not merely broken in the region; they were smashed over an incredibly hot four-day period from June 26th through June 29th when all-time records over 100 degrees were set at dozens of locations.

Portland, Oregon’s average high temperature over this period was 112 degrees, breaking the previous 3-day record by an amazing 6 degrees.  The high on June 28th was 116 degrees, an all-time record for the city.  Seattle set back-to-back all-time heat records of 104 on June 27th and then 108 on June 28th.  In the previous 126 years, Seattle had only hit 100 degrees three times.  It reached that mark 3 days in a row in June.

Crossing the border, the town of Lytton, British Columbia reached a temperature of 121 degrees on June 29th, the third day in a row in which the town registered a new all-time high temperature ever measured in Canada.  To put this in perspective, this temperature is hotter than has ever been recorded in Las Vegas.

June was a hot month indeed.

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June 2021 was the hottest June on record for U.S.

Astounding heat obliterates all-time records across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada in June 2021

Photo, posted July 7, 2021, courtesy of Poyson / GPA Photo Archive via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Dangerous Fire Season | Earth Wise

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The western United States is entering the fire season under much worse drought conditions than last year.  Last year, 15,800 square miles burned in the U.S., mostly in the West.

The western U.S. is in the midst of a 20-year mega-drought.  Rainfall in the Rocky Mountains and farther west was the second lowest on record this April.  The soil in the western half of the country is the driest it has been since 1895.

The situation is particularly bad in California and the Southwest.  In March, less than a third of California was experiencing extreme or exceptional drought.  Now, 73% of the state is.  A year ago, a record-breaking fire season burned 4% of the state and, at that time, only 3% of California was in a state of extreme drought.

A year ago, no parts of Arizona, Nevada, or Utah were in extreme or exceptional drought.  Now, more than 90% of Utah, 86% of Arizona, and 75% of Nevada face severe drought conditions.  At this time last year, only 4% of New Mexico faced extreme drought but 77% does now.

These extreme drought conditions, which are believed to be linked to climate change, are causing increased tree mortality among many species, ranging from junipers in the Southwest even to drought-tolerant blue oaks in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Conditions are extremely ripe for a lot of forest fire this year.  Last year was a terrible year for wildfires in the West and we are heading into a fire season with much drier fuels than there were last year.  The risks of great damage from wildfires are higher than ever.

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US West Enters Fire Season Facing Extremely Dry Conditions

Photo, posted September 18, 2020, courtesy of USFS/National Interagency Fire Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Expensive And Dangerous Storms | Earth Wise

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Severe storms are getting more and more common.  Early in July, the United States experienced its 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year – the earliest this has happened.  It also marks 2020 as the sixth consecutive year with at least 10 such extreme weather events, which is also a record.  With the country struggling with the effects of a global pandemic, extreme weather is pretty much the last thing we need.

This year’s 10 storms have primarily consisted of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail.  Seven out of the 10 storms were in the South or Southeast.  An Easter Sunday outbreak in that region saw 190 tornadoes and 36 people were killed that day.

Since 1980, the US has averaged nearly 7 billion-dollar weather disasters per year.  But the last five years have seen nearly 14 severe storms on average.  The way things are going this year, there will probably be more than that number.

This year’s growing total does not include the looming hurricane season, which is widely predicted to be more active than usual.  Because so many places in the South are still recovering from earlier disasters, they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of an active hurricane season.

Meanwhile, much of the country is suffering from drought conditions, making wildfires a major concern.  Recent years have seen deadly and destructive wildfires in many places, notably in California two years ago.  Between hurricanes and wildfires, the prospects are alarming for what could turn out to be a disastrous year for expensive and dangerous severe weather.

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US hits 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year — at a record pace

Photo, posted March 3, 2020, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Heat And Humidity | Earth Wise

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On hot, sticky summer days, one often hears the expression “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” That isn’t just an old saw; it is a recognition of what might be the most underestimated direct, local danger of climate change.   Extreme humid heat events represent a major health risk.

There is an index called “wet-bulb temperature” that is calculated from a combination of temperature and humidity data.  The reading, which is taken from a thermometer covered in a wet cloth, is related to how muggy it feels and indicates how effectively a person sheds heat by sweating.  When the wet-bulb temperature surpasses 95o Fahrenheit, evaporation of sweat is no longer enough for our bodies to regulate their internal temperature.  When people are exposed to these conditions for multiple hours, organ failure and death can result. 

Climate models project that combinations of heat and humidity could reach deadly thresholds for anyone spending several hours outdoors by the end of this century. 

Dangerous extremes only a few degrees below the human tolerance limits – including in parts of the southwestern and southeastern US – have more than doubled in frequency since 1979.  Since then, there have been more than 7,000 occurrences of wet-bulb temperatures above 88o, 250 above 91o, and multiple reading above 95o.  Even at lower wet-bulb temperatures around 80o, people with pre-existing health conditions, the elderly, as well as those performing strenuous outdoor labor and athletic activities, are at high risk.

More research is needed on the factors that generate extreme wet-bulb temperatures as well as the potential impacts on energy, food systems, and human security.

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Dangerous Humid Heat Extremes Occurring Decades Before Expected

Photo, posted April 16, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Living In Extreme Heat | Earth Wise

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Global climate change has already left observable effects on the planet.  Glaciers have shrunk, trees are flowering sooner, plant and animal ranges have shifted, and so on. Many effects of climate change that scientists had predicted in the past are now occurring.  The loss of sea ice, intensifying heat waves, and accelerating sea level rise are some examples.

According to a new study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is going to affect humans earlier, harder, and more widely than previously projected.  The research team found that one billion people will be either displaced or endure insufferable heat for every one degree Celsius rise in global temperatures.  

Under a worst case climate scenario, land that one third of the world’s population currently calls home will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara desert within 50 years.  Even under a more optimistic climate outlook, 1.2 billion people will still be exposed to temperatures outside the climate niche in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years.

The majority of the human population has always lived in regions where the average annual temperatures were between 43 degrees Fahrenheit and 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  These are ideal temperatures for human health and for food production.  But this temperature range is shrinking and shifting as a result of climate change. 

The study’s authors predict there will be more change in the next 50 years than there has been in the past 6,000 years.  They hope their findings will convince policymakers to accelerate their plans for emissions reductions and other climate mitigation strategies.   

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Future of the human climate niche

One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Ronnie Finger via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Heat From Solar Power | Earth Wise

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Renewable sources are playing a growing role in meeting our energy needs, but one place where they have continued to fall short is in industrial processes that require extreme heat.  These include the cement, steel, and glass industries, among others.  These industries account for a significant amount of CO2 emissions because the most effective way to reach the necessary temperatures continues to be combustion of fossil fuels.  The cement industry alone accounts for 7% of global emissions and the need for cement continues to grow.

A previously stealthy startup company backed by Bill Gates and fellow billionaire Soon-Shiong has made a breakthrough in the area of using solar energy to achieve high temperatures.  The company, called Heliogen, has created a solar oven that is capable of generating heat above 1800 degrees Fahrenheit, which is enough for high-temperature industrial processes.

The Heliogen technology uses concentrated solar power to generate heat.  Concentrated solar power uses arrays of mirrors to reflect sunlight and focus it to a single point.  That technology is not new;  there are systems that use it to produce electricity and, to some extent, heat for industry.  But it could not achieve high enough temperatures for producing cement or steel.

The new system uses computer vision software, automatic edge detection and other sophisticated technologies to focus the sun’s rays far more finely than ever before and thereby generate far higher temperatures at the focal point.

Heliogen is now focused on demonstrating how the technology can be used in a large-scale application, such as cement-making.  The selling points to industry are that not only will there be no emissions generated, but that the fuel needed to obtain their extreme heat will be free.

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Secretive energy startup backed by Bill Gates achieves solar breakthrough

Photo courtesy of Heliogen.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

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The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901.  Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer.  Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline.  Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles.  There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015.  These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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