extreme

Expensive And Dangerous Storms | Earth Wise

August 7, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Severe storms are getting more and more common. Early in July, the United States experienced its 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year – the earliest this has happened. It also marks 2020 as the sixth consecutive year with at least 10 such extreme weather events, which is also a record. With the country struggling with the effects of a global pandemic, extreme weather is pretty much the last thing we need.

This year’s 10 storms have primarily consisted of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. Seven out of the 10 storms were in the South or Southeast. An Easter Sunday outbreak in that region saw 190 tornadoes and 36 people were killed that day.

Since 1980, the US has averaged nearly 7 billion-dollar weather disasters per year. But the last five years have seen nearly 14 severe storms on average. The way things are going this year, there will probably be more than that number.

This year’s growing total does not include the looming hurricane season, which is widely predicted to be more active than usual. Because so many places in the South are still recovering from earlier disasters, they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of an active hurricane season.

Meanwhile, much of the country is suffering from drought conditions, making wildfires a major concern. Recent years have seen deadly and destructive wildfires in many places, notably in California two years ago. Between hurricanes and wildfires, the prospects are alarming for what could turn out to be a disastrous year for expensive and dangerous severe weather.

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US hits 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year — at a record pace

Photo, posted March 3, 2020, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Heat And Humidity | Earth Wise

June 15, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

On hot, sticky summer days, one often hears the expression “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” That isn’t just an old saw; it is a recognition of what might be the most underestimated direct, local danger of climate change. Extreme humid heat events represent a major health risk.

There is an index called “wet-bulb temperature” that is calculated from a combination of temperature and humidity data. The reading, which is taken from a thermometer covered in a wet cloth, is related to how muggy it feels and indicates how effectively a person sheds heat by sweating. When the wet-bulb temperature surpasses 95^o Fahrenheit, evaporation of sweat is no longer enough for our bodies to regulate their internal temperature. When people are exposed to these conditions for multiple hours, organ failure and death can result.

Climate models project that combinations of heat and humidity could reach deadly thresholds for anyone spending several hours outdoors by the end of this century.

Dangerous extremes only a few degrees below the human tolerance limits – including in parts of the southwestern and southeastern US – have more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Since then, there have been more than 7,000 occurrences of wet-bulb temperatures above 88^o, 250 above 91^o, and multiple reading above 95^o. Even at lower wet-bulb temperatures around 80^o, people with pre-existing health conditions, the elderly, as well as those performing strenuous outdoor labor and athletic activities, are at high risk.

More research is needed on the factors that generate extreme wet-bulb temperatures as well as the potential impacts on energy, food systems, and human security.

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Dangerous Humid Heat Extremes Occurring Decades Before Expected

Photo, posted April 16, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Living In Extreme Heat | Earth Wise

June 3, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Global climate change has already left observable effects on the planet. Glaciers have shrunk, trees are flowering sooner, plant and animal ranges have shifted, and so on. Many effects of climate change that scientists had predicted in the past are now occurring. The loss of sea ice, intensifying heat waves, and accelerating sea level rise are some examples.

According to a new study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is going to affect humans earlier, harder, and more widely than previously projected. The research team found that one billion people will be either displaced or endure insufferable heat for every one degree Celsius rise in global temperatures.

Under a worst case climate scenario, land that one third of the world’s population currently calls home will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara desert within 50 years. Even under a more optimistic climate outlook, 1.2 billion people will still be exposed to temperatures outside the climate niche in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years.

The majority of the human population has always lived in regions where the average annual temperatures were between 43 degrees Fahrenheit and 82 degrees Fahrenheit. These are ideal temperatures for human health and for food production. But this temperature range is shrinking and shifting as a result of climate change.

The study’s authors predict there will be more change in the next 50 years than there has been in the past 6,000 years. They hope their findings will convince policymakers to accelerate their plans for emissions reductions and other climate mitigation strategies.

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Future of the human climate niche

One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Ronnie Finger via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Heat From Solar Power | Earth Wise

January 23, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Renewable sources are playing a growing role in meeting our energy needs, but one place where they have continued to fall short is in industrial processes that require extreme heat. These include the cement, steel, and glass industries, among others. These industries account for a significant amount of CO2 emissions because the most effective way to reach the necessary temperatures continues to be combustion of fossil fuels. The cement industry alone accounts for 7% of global emissions and the need for cement continues to grow.

A previously stealthy startup company backed by Bill Gates and fellow billionaire Soon-Shiong has made a breakthrough in the area of using solar energy to achieve high temperatures. The company, called Heliogen, has created a solar oven that is capable of generating heat above 1800 degrees Fahrenheit, which is enough for high-temperature industrial processes.

The Heliogen technology uses concentrated solar power to generate heat. Concentrated solar power uses arrays of mirrors to reflect sunlight and focus it to a single point. That technology is not new; there are systems that use it to produce electricity and, to some extent, heat for industry. But it could not achieve high enough temperatures for producing cement or steel.

The new system uses computer vision software, automatic edge detection and other sophisticated technologies to focus the sun’s rays far more finely than ever before and thereby generate far higher temperatures at the focal point.

Heliogen is now focused on demonstrating how the technology can be used in a large-scale application, such as cement-making. The selling points to industry are that not only will there be no emissions generated, but that the fuel needed to obtain their extreme heat will be free.

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Secretive energy startup backed by Bill Gates achieves solar breakthrough

Photo courtesy of Heliogen.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

December 2, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901. Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer. Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline. Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles. There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015. These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Europe Is Warming Faster Than Predicted

October 9, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

A new study has found that Europe is warming faster than even climate models projected. The number of summer days with extreme heat in Europe has tripled since the 1950s, while the number of days with extreme cold has decreased by factors of two or three depending on the region.

According to climate scientists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, the climate trends are much larger than what would come from natural variability and are a clear signal of climate change. Extremely hot days in Europe have become hotter by an average of more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit while extremely cold days have warmed by more than 5 degrees. The research examined data from weather stations across Europe from 1950 to 2018. Over 90% of the stations recorded increasing temperatures over time, a percentage much too high to be purely from natural climate variability. The results also showed that the region was warming even faster than climate models projected.

The research results come after an extremely hot summer in Europe. Southern France hit 114.8 degrees, a new record, in June. Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium all recorded all-time national temperature highs. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently announced that July was the hottest month ever recorded.

European summers and winters will only grow hotter in the coming years as climate change accelerates. The rapidly increasing temperatures will impact cities and people that are unprepared for them and pose real risks for residents in the coming decades. Extreme heat is dangerous because it stresses the human body, potentially leading to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

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Europe warming faster than expected due to climate change

Photo, posted July 30, 2011, courtesy of Marcel de Jong via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Off-The-Charts Heat

August 9, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

There have been some blistering heatwaves this summer – in Europe, in the Middle East, and here in the United States. A new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists projects that within the next 20 years, millions of people in the United States could be exposed to dangerous “off-the-charts” heat index conditions of 127 degrees Fahrenheit or more. Within 60 years, over one-third of the population could be exposed to such conditions.

Extreme heat kills hundreds of people every year across the U.S. Our bodies’ natural cooling process is affected by humidity and the combined heat index measures the impact of high temperature and high humidity. When the combined heat index reaches 90 degrees, it is considered to be a “dangerous day”, when many groups of people are at serious risk.

Because of the warming climate, the number of dangerous days has been increasing in many parts of the country. Unless there is success in limiting the effects of climate change, by 2050, even relatively temperate cities like Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, and Chicago will have 50 or more dangerous days a year. Places like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Miami will experience dangerous days for half of the year.

The National Weather Service’s heat index goes up to 127 degrees Fahrenheit. But in as soon as 20 years, the Southeast, Southern Great Plains, and Midwest will begin to experience days that are so hot that they are “off the charts.”

These extreme conditions could still be avoided with steep, rapid carbon emission reductions. But however successful we are going forward, the US will still be significantly warmer than today with 85 urban areas exposed to 30 or more days with a heat index above 105 degrees, compared with just three urban areas historically.

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‘Off-the-charts’ heat to affect millions in U.S. in coming decades

Photo, posted August 8, 2008, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The New Normal Weather

March 13, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

We often hear about how the weather is getting stranger all the time, but do most of us really think so? What kinds of weather do we really find remarkable and has that been changing?

A study led by the University of California, Davis used some very modern tools to examine the question of what people might consider to be “normal” weather. To reach their conclusions, they quantified the timeless pastime of talking about the weather by analyzing Twitter posts. They sampled over 2 billion geolocated tweets to determine what kind of events generated the most posts about the weather.

Unsurprisingly, they found that people most often tweet when temperatures are unusual for a particular place and time of year. However, if the same weather persisted year after year, it generated less comment on Twitter, indicating that people began to view it as normal in a relatively short amount of time.

The study indicates that people have short memories when it comes to what they consider normal weather. On average, most people base their idea of normal weather on what has happened in just the past two up to maybe eight years. This disconnect with the historical climate record may obscure the public’s perception of climate change.

After repeat exposures to historically-extreme temperatures, people talk less about the weather, even though particularly hot or cold weather conditions make them unhappy and grumpy. Even though we are experiencing conditions that are historically extreme, we might not consider them to be particularly unusual if we tend to forget what happened more than a few years ago. Things may be getting worse, but they apparently are just the new normal.

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