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Shrinking Ice In The Bering Sea | Earth Wise

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The Bering Sea forms the divide between the two largest landmasses on Earth:  Eurasia and the Americas.  Recent analysis of vegetation from a Bering Sea island has determined that the extent of sea ice in the region is the lowest it has been for over 5,000 years.

St. Matthew Island, a small island in the middle of the Bering Sea, has essentially been recording what is happening in the ocean and atmosphere around it, in the form of the composition of peat layers on the island.  By analyzing the chemical composition of peat core samples, scientists can estimate how sea ice in the region has changed over the course of time.

Changes in the relative amounts of two oxygen isotopes in the sediment and plant debris trapped in the peat on the island reflect the nature of precipitation during the period when the peat layers formed.  That ratio is correlated with the amount of sea ice in the region.  Satellite data acquired over the past 40 years confirms this correlation.

Analysis of the data shows that the current ice levels are unprecedented in the last 5,500 years.  These long-term findings affirm that reductions in Bering Sea ice are due to more than recent higher temperatures associated with global warming.  Atmospheric and ocean currents, which have also been altered by climate change, play a large role in the presence of sea ice.

Summertime sea ice in the Arctic was expected to reach its second-lowest extent in September in 40 years of observation.  Sea ice typically builds up again each winter, but the changes in ice extents actually lag behind changes in greenhouse gas level by decades.  Future ice loss is already built into the system.

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Bering Sea ice extent is at most reduced state in last 5,500 years

Photo, posted December 2, 2012, courtesy of Bering Land Bridge National Preserve via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Greenland Glaciers Past The Point Of No Return | Earth Wise

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Forty years of satellite data from Greenland shows that the glaciers on the island have shrunk so much that even if global warming came to an abrupt halt, the Greenland ice sheet would continue to shrink.

This conclusion was published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment by researchers at Ohio State University.  According to their study, Greenland’s glaciers have passed a tipping point where the snowfall that replenishes the ice sheet each year can no longer keep up with the ice that is flowing into the ocean from the glaciers.

The study analyzed monthly satellite data from more than 200 large glaciers that drain into the ocean around Greenland.  It looked at how much ice breaks off into icebergs or melts from the glaciers into the ocean as well as the amount of snowfall each year that replenishes the glaciers.

Throughout the 1980s and 90s, these two processes were mostly in balance, keeping the ice sheet intact.  But the amount of ice being lost each year started to increase steadily around the year 2000 while there was no increase in snowfall.   Both processes fluctuate from year to year, but the baseline for ice loss has steadily risen.  Before 2000, the Greenland ice sheet had about the same chance of gaining or losing mass each year.  At this point, the ice sheet is likely to gain mass in only one out of every 100 years.

Large glaciers in Greenland have retreated about 2 miles since 1985, so that many of them are sitting in deeper water with more ice in contact with warmer water making it harder for glaciers to grow back.  At this point, even if the climate reverses its trend, the ice sheet will continue to lose mass.

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Warming Greenland ice sheet passes point of no return

Photo, posted August 27, 2015, courtesy of Joxean Koret via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Giant Jellyfish | Earth Wise

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There have been recent news stories about giant jellyfish washing ashore from Maine to the south coast of Massachusetts.  These stories have claimed that some of these lion’s mane jellyfish have been the largest on record and even might be the largest animals in the ocean.

The truth of these accounts is rather suspect.  For one thing, it is rather difficult to measure the size of a jellyfish when it is out of the water.  Gravity compresses and spreads out the bell portion of the animal, and that makes up the bulk of its mass.  For example, a jellyfish bell that measures four feet across on the beach would appear to be much smaller if the animal was floating in the water.

Some claims that lion’s mane jellyfish are larger than blue whales date back a full century and are very much disputable.  The claimed size certainly included the animal’s long tentacles, and such things hardly compare with a blue whale.

In any event, the current spate of jellyfish sightings is not necessarily that unusual.  Many factors influence jellyfish populations, including water temperature and food supply.  It is possible that warming water temperatures may be influencing the jellyfish population this year, but there is not enough data to know for sure.

People do need to be cautious around lion’s mane jellyfish.  They do sting and while their stings are not as bad as those of a number of other species, they can be a problem for people who have allergic reactions.  Furthermore, the stinging cells remain active in a jellyfish that has washed ashore.

Sightings of these animals are continuing, and reports of larger specimens continue as well, even if they don’t compare with blue whales.

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Jellyfish larger than blue whales?

Photo, posted September 13, 2015, courtesy Derek Keats via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The South Pole | Earth Wise

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According to a study led by researchers at Ohio University, the South Pole has warmed more than three times the global average over the past 30 years.  While the warming was driven by natural tropic climate variability, the researchers argue that rising greenhouse gas emissions likely intensified the warming. 

The climate in the antarctic has some of the largest ranges in temperature during the year.  Some regions, like most of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, experienced warming during the late 20th century.  But the South Pole, which is located in the remote and high-altitude interior of the continent, actually cooled until the 1980s.  The South Pole, as the study highlights, has warmed substantially ever since. 

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers analyzed climate models and weather station data at the South Pole.  They found that, between 1989 and 2018, the South Pole had warmed by 1.8 degrees Celsius.  This warming trend of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade is three times the global average. 

According to the study, the robust warming of the Antarctic interior has been mainly driven by the tropics.  Warm ocean temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean have altered the winds in the South Atlantic, increasing the delivery of warm air to the South Pole.  These atmospheric changes are an important part of what’s driving the climate anomalies in the region.

But the researchers argue that the warming trends are unlikely a result of natural climate change alone.  The effects of anthropogenic – or human-caused – climate change in addition to the natural changes have combined to make this one of the strongest warming trends globally.    

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Extreme warming of the South Pole

Photo, posted February 7, 2011, courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Monitoring Wildlife For Warning Signs of the Next Pandemic | Earth Wise

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According to the World Health Organization, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 likely originated in wild bats near Wuhan, China, and may have been passed to a second animal species before infecting people.  Since then, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, more than 13 million people around the world have been infected by COVID-19 and about 600,000 have died. 

But despite the ever-present threat of a new virus sparking the next pandemic, there is currently no global system to screen for viruses in wild animals that could eventually spill over to humans. 

In an article recently published in the journal Science, a group of scientists is calling for the creation of a decentralized global system of wildlife surveillance.  The establishment of this global system could help identify viruses in wild animals that have the potential to infect and sicken people before another global disease outbreak begins. 

According to the scientists, coronaviruses alone have caused outbreaks in humans three times in the last 20 years:  SARS (or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and COVID-19. 

While it’s impossible to know today how often viruses jump from animals to humans, human activity is making such spillover events more and more likely.  For instance, many continue to develop wild animal habitat to build new homes or businesses.  Some catch wild animals and re-sell them either for consumption or as exotic pets.  Parts from these wild animals are often shipped around the world as trinkets or as ingredients for traditional medicines. 

A global system that could identify potentially harmful viruses before they jump to humans is technologically feasible, affordable, and clearly necessary. 

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COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

Global wildlife surveillance could provide early warning for next pandemic

Photo, posted January 15, 2008, courtesy of Doug Beckers via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The United States And Ticks | Earth Wise

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Tiny ticks are a big problem.  Measuring only three to five millimeters in size, ticks are widely distributed around the world.  They are external parasites, feasting on the blood of birds, reptiles, amphibians, and mammals – including humans.

According to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, ticks infect more than 300,000 people with Lyme disease in the United States every year, and the numbers continue to rise.  Other common tick-borne diseases include anaplasmosis, babesiosis, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, and powassan encephalitis.

But while the prevalence of tick-borne illnesses has steadily increased in the United States over the past two decades, a new study on tick surveillance and control “has revealed an inconsistent and often under-supported patchwork of programs across the country.”

The study, by university researchers at the CDC’s five Vector-Borne Disease Regional Centers of Excellence, is the first-ever examination of tick management programs in the United States.  The researchers found clear gaps in our public health infrastructure. 

According to the study, which was recently published in the Journal of Medical Entomology, less than 50% of public health and vector-control agencies conduct tick surveillance.  Only 25% test ticks for disease-causing germs.  And only 12% conduct or support tick-control efforts.  Researchers also discovered that the capacity for public tick-control efforts is low, as is the capacity for information and data sharing between agencies on ticks.    

The findings highlight the degree to which tick surveillance and control is lagging in the United States.  According to the research team, greater support for tick-management programs is critical, and they hope their findings will serve as a baseline from which to measure future improvements.  

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Tick surveillance and control lagging in US

Photo, posted May 4, 2009, courtesy of Jerry Kirkhart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Renewables Could Take Over By 2035 | Earth Wise

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A study by UC Berkeley looked at the prospects for renewable energy sources to become the primary source of energy in the United States over the next 15 years.  Even though fossil fuels continue to fill that role at present, the plummeting costs of alternative energy sources – primarily solar and wind power – are making them increasingly attractive on the competitive market.

These cost reductions have occurred much faster than what was anticipated even just a few years ago.  According to the study, it is technically and economically feasible for renewable sources to provide 90% of our electricity by 2035.

The Berkeley researchers took the available data on renewable energy and created two scenarios for the next 15 years.  The first has energy policy remaining as it is now, without ambitious policy changes that encourage the growth of renewable energy.  In that scenario, they estimated that 55% of the US energy infrastructure would come from renewables.  That amount will not produce the change needed to meet Paris Climate Agreement goals but would simply come about because of the dramatically lower costs for renewable energy.

The second scenario includes state and federal governments leading the way to finance and facilitate the energy reform needed for a greener 2035.  It also relies on the large-scale use of grid-scale batteries to store the energy collected from solar and wind installations for when it is needed.

Which scenario is more realistic will depend on several major influential factors, notably the trajectory and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the results of the November elections.   These things will have a huge impact on the future of our energy system.

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Report: By 2035, 90 Percent of the US Could Be Powered by Renewables

Photo, posted May 25, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Mangrove Trees And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Mangrove trees are small trees that grow in coastal saline or brackish water at tropical and subtropical latitudes.  Many mangrove trees can be identified by their dense tangle of prop roots.  These roots make the trees appear as if they are standing on stilts above the water.  The tangle of roots allows mangrove trees to handle the daily rise and fall of tides and to slow the movement of tidal waters.  

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services, including stabilizing the coastline by reducing erosion from storm surges, waves, and tides.  The intricate root system of mangrove trees are attractive to fish and other species seeking food and shelter from predators.  Mangrove forests also store large amounts of carbon.     

But according to a new study recently published in the journal Science, mangrove trees won’t survive sea level rise by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced.  

Using sediment data from 78 locations over the last 10,000 years, an international team of scientists led by Macquarie University in Australia estimated the chances of mangrove trees survival based on the projected rates of future sea-level rise.

When sea level rise rates exceeded 6 millimeters per year, which is similar to estimates under high-emissions scenarios for 2050, researchers found that mangrove trees were unlikely to keep pace with the rising water levels.  But when the annual increase was 5 millimeters or less – which is the projected low-emissions scenario this century – mangrove trees are much more likely to survive. 

These findings underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate rapid sea level rise.  The future of mangrove trees may depend on it.  

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Mangrove trees won’t survive sea-level rise by 2050 if emissions aren’t cut

Photo, posted December 17, 2012, courtesy of Edward Stojakovic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Heat And Humidity | Earth Wise

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On hot, sticky summer days, one often hears the expression “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” That isn’t just an old saw; it is a recognition of what might be the most underestimated direct, local danger of climate change.   Extreme humid heat events represent a major health risk.

There is an index called “wet-bulb temperature” that is calculated from a combination of temperature and humidity data.  The reading, which is taken from a thermometer covered in a wet cloth, is related to how muggy it feels and indicates how effectively a person sheds heat by sweating.  When the wet-bulb temperature surpasses 95o Fahrenheit, evaporation of sweat is no longer enough for our bodies to regulate their internal temperature.  When people are exposed to these conditions for multiple hours, organ failure and death can result. 

Climate models project that combinations of heat and humidity could reach deadly thresholds for anyone spending several hours outdoors by the end of this century. 

Dangerous extremes only a few degrees below the human tolerance limits – including in parts of the southwestern and southeastern US – have more than doubled in frequency since 1979.  Since then, there have been more than 7,000 occurrences of wet-bulb temperatures above 88o, 250 above 91o, and multiple reading above 95o.  Even at lower wet-bulb temperatures around 80o, people with pre-existing health conditions, the elderly, as well as those performing strenuous outdoor labor and athletic activities, are at high risk.

More research is needed on the factors that generate extreme wet-bulb temperatures as well as the potential impacts on energy, food systems, and human security.

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Dangerous Humid Heat Extremes Occurring Decades Before Expected

Photo, posted April 16, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Small-Scale Climate Solutions | Earth Wise

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In order to meet international climate targets, we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half over the next decade and reach net-zero by mid-century.  Achieving this will require unprecedented and rapid changes in how energy is supplied, distributed and used.

Researchers at several European universities collected data on a wide variety of energy technologies at different scales and tested how well they performed in accomplishing an accelerated low-carbon transformation. 

Large-scale, costly, non-divisible or so-called lumpy technologies, such as utility-scale generation, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, high-speed transportation, and whole-building retrofits are often seen as the most effective way to achieve emission-reduction goals. A key finding of their study is that low-carbon technologies that are smaller scale and can be mass deployed are more likely to enable a faster transition to net-zero emissions.

So-called granular options include solar panels, electricity storage batteries, heat pumps, smart thermostats, electric bikes, and ride-share services.  These options scale not by becoming larger but by replicating.

Small-scale options are quicker to deploy, their technologies have shorter lifespans and are less complex, so innovations and improvements can be brought to market more rapidly.  They are also more widely accessible and help create more jobs, giving governments a sound basis for strengthening climate policies.

However, smaller-scale technologies are not a panacea.  There are no small-scale replacements for industrial plants and other kinds of major infrastructure, but in many different contexts, they can outperform larger-scale alternatives as a means of accelerating the low-carbon transformation.

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Smaller scale solutions needed for rapid progress towards emissions targets

Photo, posted April 8, 2019, courtesy of the City of St Pete via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

American Robins And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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American robins are migratory songbirds that can be found throughout much of North America.  Named after European robins because of their reddish-orange breast, American robins are often found hopping across lawns and nesting on porches.  Their rich caroling is among the first pre-dawn bird songs heard in spring and summer.  

While some overwinter in northern parts of the United States and southern Canada, most American robins migrate south to overwinter in places like Florida and the Gulf Coast, as well as central Mexico and the Pacific Coast.  They typically head south by the end of August and return north sometime between February and March to their breeding grounds in Canada and Alaska.  They spend their short time there trying to find a mate, build a nest, raise a family, and consume enough food to sustain themselves on their long return journey south.

But climate change is making these seasonal rhythms less predictable.  According to a new study recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, American robin migration is kicking off earlier by about five days each decade.  The birds now migrate 12 days earlier than they did in 1994.  

For 25 years, researchers at Canada’s Slave Lake have been recording the timing of American robin spring migration.  They attached GPS devices to 55 robins, tracking their movements from April through June. The researchers linked the birds’ movement with weather data, including air temperature, snow depth, wind speed, and precipitation.  The results showed that robins start migrating north earlier when winters are warm and dry. 

Understanding the influence over the timing of migratory events is important because the timing of migration can influence reproductive success.

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A Migration Mystery

American robins now migrate 12 days earlier than in 1994

Photo, posted January 1, 2020, courtesy of Becky Matsubara via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Recycling Coal Plants | Earth Wise

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Over 300 coal-fired power plants in the US have stopping burning coal over the past decade.  Only about 224 plants still produce power by burning coal.  As a result, a new sort of recycling industry is taking shape:  repurposing of coal plants.

Across the country, utilities are finding ways to redevelop these facilities.  Some are industrial in nature and others a far cry from their original purpose.

In January, Beloit College in Wisconsin opened a student union and recreation center in what used to be an Alliant Energy coal-fired power plant.  On the southern coast of Massachusetts, a shuttered 1,600 MW coal plant is being demolished to make way for a logistical port and support center for a planned wind farm 35 miles off shore.

In Independence, Missouri, the city is considering competing plans to recycle the Blue Valley Power plant.  It may become a 50 MW battery storage facility, or possibly a biofuel plant.

Another popular reuse strategy is data centers.  Data centers use tremendous amounts of power and therefore can make use of the former coal plants’ capacity to handle large amounts of electricity.

Retired coal-fired plants have built-in infrastructure and components that can be repurposed for new industry.  The plants typically have access to rail, ports and waterways, as well as proximity to good highway transportation.  The electrical grids to which they are connected can be reused for solar or wind farms at the site.

Given that coal plants are continuing to close, the potential to redevelop them in various ways continues to grow as well.   There is a surge in interest in coal plant redevelopment because these facilities are assets of value.

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Coal-fired power plants finding new uses as data centers, clean energy hubs

Photo, posted January 10, 2017, courtesy of Rusty Clark via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Food Waste And Access To Groceries | Earth Wise

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One-third of all food produced is wasted, which turns out to be a major contributor to carbon emissions.  Most of the carbon emissions associated with food waste are related to the production of the food.  Reducing waste would trickle through the supply chain over time and ultimately less food would be produced.

A study at Cornell’s SC Johnson College of Business looked at a particular strategy for reducing food waste’s environmental impact:  opening more grocery stores.

It turns out that the more stores there are, the lower food waste will be.  Cornell Professor Elena Belavina created a model that incorporates data from the grocery industry, the U.S. Census Bureau, and other academic studies.

When applied to Chicago, which is typical of many American cities, the model predicts that by adding just three or four markets within four-square-mile area, food waste would be reduced by 6 to 9 percent.  This would achieve an emissions reduction comparable to converting more than 20,000 cars from fossil fuels to electric power.  According to the model, not only would food waste be reduced, but so would grocery bills.  By trimming food waste and travel costs, consumers would spend up to 4% less.

Most big cities are well below their ideal density of grocery stores that would minimize food waste. When consumers can purchase perishable goods nearby, they shop more often but buy less each time.  There is less food sitting at home, so there is a much lower likelihood that food will spoil.

New York City, which has an abundance of produce stands and neighborhood markets, comes close to having the ideal density of markets.  Basically, the way to reduce food waste is to bring less groceries home.

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Better access to groceries could reduce food waste, emissions

Photo, posted March 22, 2009, courtesy of Nick Saltmarsh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saving Energy At Data Centers | Earth Wise

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A data center is a building, dedicated space within a building, or a group of buildings used to house computer systems and associated components, such as telecommunications and data storage systems.  Data centers are the backbone of internet services and cloud computing, which together are increasingly dominant elements of modern life.

Energy use is a central issue for data centers. Power used by them ranges from a few kilowatts for a rack of servers in a closet at a local business to several tens of megawatts for large facilities. Some data centers have power densities more than 100 times that of a typical office building and use as much electricity as several thousand homes. For such facilities, electricity costs are a dominant operating expense and account for over 10% of the total cost of ownership of a data center.  These centers, with their numerous racks of computer servers, consume 90 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year in the United States, as much as all of our residences use for lighting. 

A research group at Princeton University is developing a family of devices that can dramatically reduce power consumption at data centers.  The team’s technology focuses on the process by which the AC power from the grid is converted to the low-voltage direct current used by computer equipment.  With existing technology, this power conversion takes place in each individual computer, which ends up wasting about 40% of the original energy.   The new device aggregates power conversion into a single unit, which then distributes the power to the individual computers and storage units.

As data centers get bigger and more numerous, the opportunity to save a lot of energy becomes increasingly important.

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New technology boosts energy efficiency in data centers

Photo, posted June 8, 2007, courtesy of Sean Ellis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

How Environmentally Friendly Are We? | Earth Wise

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Many of us are very concerned about the environment and want to try to do the right things as we go about our daily lives.  New research from the University of Gothenburg shows that we tend to overestimate just how much we are actually doing.

A study of over 4,000 people in United States, England, India, and Sweden revealed that most people are convinced that they act more environmentally friendly than the average person.  Their actions might include buying eco-labelled products, saving household energy, recycling, driving a hybrid or electric car, and reducing purchases of plastic bags.  Participants in the survey rated themselves as more environmentally active than other people, including both unknown people as well as their own friends.

The results are in keeping with a general tendency people have to overestimate their own abilities.  Studies over the years have shown that most people consider themselves, for example, to be more honest, more creative, and better drivers than others.  This sort of over-optimism apparently also applies to environmentally friendly behaviors.

The data from the survey revealed that the participants were more likely to overestimate their engagement in activities they perform often and draw the faulty conclusion that the things they do often, they in fact do more often than others.

A consequence of thinking that you are more environmentally friendly than other people is that it can reduce the motivation to act environmentally friendly in the future.  In fact, when we think we are more environmentally friendly than others, we actually end up becoming less environmentally friendly.

Logically speaking, the majority of people cannot be more environmentally friendly than the average person.  We are not living in Lake Wobegone where all children are above average.

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The majority consider themselves more environmentally friendly than others

Photo, posted March 6, 2014, courtesy of Karlis Dambrans via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another Greenhouse Gas Record

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According to the World Meteorological Organization, levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached yet another new record high.  Globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide reached 407.8 parts per million in 2018, up from 405.5 parts per million in 2017.

The increase year-over-year was similar to that from 2016 to 2017, and remains a little over the average for the last decade.  Global CO2 levels crossed the 400 parts per million threshold in 2015.

Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also increased by higher amounts than the average for the past decade, based on observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch network with stations all over the globe.

Since 1990, there has been a 43% increase in total radiative forcing – which is the warming effect on the climate from long-lived greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide accounts for about 80% of this.  The report notes that the last time the Earth experienced this high a level of CO2 was 3 to 5 million years ago. At that time, global temperatures were 2 to 3 Celsius degrees higher and sea levels were 30 to 60 feet higher than now.

The report includes data on the isotopic analysis of the CO2 in the atmosphere.  CO2 produced by fossil fuel combustion comes from plant material from millions of years ago and does not contain radiocarbon, that is, carbon-14.  CO2 from natural sources contains radiocarbon produced by cosmic rays.  The increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere contain decreasing levels of radiocarbon, indicating that the overall increase is largely due to human activities.

Overall, global efforts to date to reduce emissions have not been very successful, and this is borne out by the growing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

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Greenhouse gas concentrations in atmosphere reach yet another high

Photo courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Rising Seas Will Erase Cities

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According to new research, climate-driven sea level rise could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought.  This sobering assessment means some of the world’s great coastal cities, including Bangkok, Shanghai, Mumbai, Basra, Alexandria, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be in big trouble.   

Scientists have always relied on land elevation data to determine the effects of sea level rise over large areas.  But standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings.  The authors of the paper developed a more accurate way to calculate land elevation by using artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and to correct for it.  The new findings revealed that 150 million people – three times more than previously thought – are now living on land that is projected to be below the high-tide line by the middle of this century. 

Eight Asian nations – China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan – account for about 70% of the people living on at-risk land. 

More than 20 million people in Vietnam, including much of Ho Chi Minh City, live on land that will be inundated by 2050.  In Thailand, more than 10% of its citizens, including much of Bangkok, currently live on land imperiled by projected sea level rise. 

This new research was produced by Climate Central, a New Jersey-based science organization, and was recently published in the journal Nature Communications. 

Sea level rise is clearly not just an environmental problem.  It’s a humanitarian crisis.

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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

Photo, posted December 18, 2009, courtesy of Misko via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

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According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

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Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Predicting Lightning Strikes

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Lightning is one of the most unpredictable phenomena in nature.  Approximately 100 lightning bolts strike earth’s surface every second, and each lightning bolt can contain up to one billion volts of electricity.  Lightning regularly kills both people and animals and sets homes and forests on fire.  It’s also been known to ground airplanes. 

Researchers at EPFL – a research institute and university in Switzerland – have developed a novel way to predict where and when lightning will strike.  The system relies on a combination of standard data from weather stations and artificial intelligence to predict lightning strikes to the nearest 10 to 30 minutes and within a radius of less than 20 miles.  The simple and inexpensive system was outlined in a research paper recently published in Climate and Atmospheric Science, a Nature partner journal.   

According to researchers, the current systems for predicting lightning strikes are slow, expensive, and complex, relying on external data acquired by satellite and radar.  The new inexpensive system from EPFL uses real time data that can be obtained from any weather station, meaning it can cover remote regions that are out of radar and satellite range and where communication networks are lacking.  The quick predictions from the system allow alerts to be issued before a storm has even formed. 

The system uses a machine-learning algorithm that’s been trained to recognize conditions that lead to lightning.  The researchers took into account atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, among other things.  After training the algorithm, the system was able to predict lightning strikes accurately nearly 80% of the time.

This system is a simple way to predict a complex phenomenon. 

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Using AI to predict where and when lightning will strike

Photo, posted December 14, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Air Quality In The U.S.

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Globally, poor air is a serious problem.  According to the World Health Organization, exposure to air pollution is linked to the premature deaths of an estimated 7 million people every year.  In fact, 91% of the people on the planet live in places where air pollution exceeds WHO guideline limits. 

In the United States, air pollution has dramatically improved over the last four decades due in large part to federal regulations put in place under the Clean Air Act of 1970.  Fine particulate matter (known as PM2.5) and other pollution, including ozone, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide, have all decreased during this time span. 

But according to recent research, this trend has unfortunately done an about-face.  New data reveals that air pollution has increased nationally since 2016.  An analysis of Environmental Protection Agency data by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University found that, on average, fine particulate pollution increased 5.5% across the country between 2016 and 2018. 

This increase in fine particulate pollution was associated with nearly 10,000 additional premature deaths in the United States during that time period. 

According to researchers, there are several factors likely causing this uptick in unhealthy air, including increases in both driving and the burning of natural gas.  Wildfires out west are also thought to be a major contributor. 

The researchers also suggest that a decrease in enforcement of the Clean Air Act may also be playing a role.  The law put in place strict air pollution standards for vehicles, factories, power plants, and other sources, and is credited with saving hundreds of thousands of lives.

It’s time for clean air to be recognized as a basic human right.

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Web Links

America’s Air Quality Worsens, Ending Years of Gains, Study Says

Photo, posted April 6, 2007, courtesy of Brett Weinstein via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)