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Record Siberian Heat | Earth Wise

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Siberia has been experiencing unprecedented high temperatures in recent months.  May was the hottest May on record and temperatures in Siberia have stayed well above average for the past year.

On June 20, temperatures in the small Siberian town of Verkhoyansk hit 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, which is a record-high temperature in one of the fastest-warming places in the world.  Average high temperatures in June reach 68 degrees.  Verkhoyansk sits on the Yana River in the Arctic Circle and, during the winter, is one of the world’s coldest towns.  In 1892, its temperature dropped to -90 degrees Fahrenheit.  And now there is hundred-degree heat above the Arctic Circle.

Siberia tends to experience large temperature swings month-to-month and year-to year.  But it is very unusual for temperatures to stay well over average over an extended period of time as they have for the past year.  According to climate scientists, the kind of temperature swings seen recently would only happen once in 100,000 years if it were not for climate change.

Siberia has seen raging wildfires and structural damage from thawing permafrost as its temperatures have stayed warmer than normal.  The prolonged Siberian heatwave is an alarming situation.

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth because of a process known as Arctic amplification.  The acceleration of the Arctic ice melt leads to a seasonal snow cover that isn’t as white.  It therefore absorbs more sunlight, which then leads to more warming.

The amplified warming of the Arctic with its increased melting of ice leads to higher sea levels, and not just in the Arctic Ocean.  With less Arctic ice to reflect sunlight, the world’s oceans continue to warm. 

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Temperatures in an Arctic Siberian town hit 100 degrees, a new high

Photo, posted December 7, 2014, courtesy of Olga Dudenko via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Heat-Resistant Coral | Earth Wise

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Coral reefs are in decline all over the world.  Corals are under increasing pressure as water temperatures rise and the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events increase.  Nowhere is this more evident than in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef system, where severe bleaching events have happened in three of the past five years. Long-term prospects for the survival of the world’s largest reef system are now considered to be poor.

A team of scientists at Australia’s national science agency – the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization – along with the Australian Institute of Marine Science and the University of Melbourne have successfully produced in a laboratory setting a coral that is more resistant to increased seawater temperatures.

The team made the coral more tolerant to temperature-induced bleaching by bolstering the heat tolerance of the microalgae symbionts that live inside the coral tissue.  They isolated the microalgae from coral and cultured it in the laboratory using a technique called “directed evolution”.  Over the course of four years, they exposed the microalgae to increasingly warmer temperatures.  When the heat-adapted strain of algae was reintroduced into coral larvae, the newly established coral-algal symbiosis was more heat tolerant than the original one.  The heat-tolerant microalgae are better at photosynthesis and improve the heat response of the coral animal.

The next step is to further test the algal strains in adult colonies across a range of coral species.  This groundbreaking research provides a promising and novel tool to increase the heat tolerance of corals and might potentially lead to a way to save the Great Barrier Reef as the world continues to warm.

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Scientists successfully develop heat resistant coral to fight bleaching

Photo, posted September 22, 2010, courtesy of NOAA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Living In Extreme Heat | Earth Wise

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Global climate change has already left observable effects on the planet.  Glaciers have shrunk, trees are flowering sooner, plant and animal ranges have shifted, and so on. Many effects of climate change that scientists had predicted in the past are now occurring.  The loss of sea ice, intensifying heat waves, and accelerating sea level rise are some examples.

According to a new study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is going to affect humans earlier, harder, and more widely than previously projected.  The research team found that one billion people will be either displaced or endure insufferable heat for every one degree Celsius rise in global temperatures.  

Under a worst case climate scenario, land that one third of the world’s population currently calls home will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara desert within 50 years.  Even under a more optimistic climate outlook, 1.2 billion people will still be exposed to temperatures outside the climate niche in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years.

The majority of the human population has always lived in regions where the average annual temperatures were between 43 degrees Fahrenheit and 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  These are ideal temperatures for human health and for food production.  But this temperature range is shrinking and shifting as a result of climate change. 

The study’s authors predict there will be more change in the next 50 years than there has been in the past 6,000 years.  They hope their findings will convince policymakers to accelerate their plans for emissions reductions and other climate mitigation strategies.   

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Future of the human climate niche

One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Ronnie Finger via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Danger Of Relying On Future Technology | Earth Wise

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The need to mitigate the effects of climate change has been a global focus for about 40 years and has seen ever-changing views on what actions are needed.  The historical record has been defined by over-reliance on promises of new technology to solve climate change.  Looking to future technology to save the environment has been an excuse to postpone necessary action and avoid inconvenient changes in how we do things.

A study at Lancaster University in the UK published in Nature Climate Change exposes how such promises have raised expectations of more effective policy options becoming available in the future and have enabled the continued politics of inadequate action and skirting around the truth.

Even after four decades, rather than acting forcefully to reduce emissions, we are hoping that nuclear fusion power, giant carbon sucking machines, ice-restoration using vast numbers of wind-powered pumps, and spraying particulates into the atmosphere can address the climate crisis rather than dramatic changes in fossil fuel use.

The researchers mapped the history of climate targets in five phases.  Early on, the focus was on improved energy efficiency, large-scale enhancement of carbon sinks, and nuclear power.  Next, the focus was on cutting emissions with efficiency, fuel switching, and carbon capture and storage.  After that, bioenergy was the major focus.  Then, global carbon budgeting and potential negative emission technologies.  Currently, the focus is on temperature outcomes rather than emission targets.

Each novel promise competes with existing ideas and downplays any sense of urgency.   The researchers conclude that putting our hopes on yet more new technologies is unwise.  The time to act is now.

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Why relying on new technology won’t save the planet

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Moving Up And Away | Earth Wise

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A new study by the Wildlife Conservation Society, the US Forest Service, and UC Berkeley has shown that mountain-dwelling species trying to escape warming temperatures may also be finding refuge from human pressure.

The study shows that nearly 60% of the world’s mountainous areas are under intense human pressure.  Most of that pressure occurs at lower elevations and mountain bases, where more people live, grow food, and build roads.  The researchers used climate models to predict how various species would move as the climate changes.   Based upon these predictions, they found that species tend to move to higher elevations, where temperatures are lower.  But those elevations also have more intact land for species because there is less human activity.

Mountains are home to over 85% of the world’s amphibians, birds, and mammals and these species are at risk from human activities such as agriculture, livestock grazing, and development.  These things reduce their habitats, but meanwhile the warming climate pushes them upslope as they struggle to find tolerable temperatures.

The researchers point to their study as new guidance for conservation efforts.  They warn that many conservation efforts don’t take into account the effects of human pressure.   Factoring in human pressure reveals the true extent of mountainous areas for species that are restricted to intact landscapes.  These are often the species that are of greatest concern to conservationists.  This true shape refers to how much land area is potentially available as habitat for a species as it moves up in elevation.  

The results offer a glimmer of hope for mountain-based species under climate change as they move away from the most intense human activity.

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Climate change may push some species to higher elevations — and out of harm’s way

Photo, posted November 22, 2007, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Antarctica’s Hot Summer | Earth Wise

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The Southern Hemisphere’s recent summer brought drought, heatwaves and bush-fires that ravaged Australia.  At the same time, Antarctica experienced a summer of extreme weather.

In East Antarctica, the Casey research station in the Australian Antarctic Territory had its first heatwave event, recording extreme maximum and minimum temperatures over three consecutive days in January.  Record high temperatures were also reported at bases on the Antarctic Peninsula.

The Casey station recorded a record high maximum temperature of 49 degrees Fahrenheit and a record overnight low of 36 degrees.  In February, Brazilian scientists reported a high temperature of 69 degrees at Marambio, an all-time record for Antarctica.

Ecologists say that the hot summer would most likely lead to long-term disruption of local populations, communities, and the broader ecosystem.  That disruption could be both positive and negative.

Most life in Antarctica exists in small ice-free oases and depends on melting snow and ice for a water supply.  Melt water from the warming temperatures will lead to increased growth and reproduction of mosses, lichens, microbes and invertebrates.

However, excessive flooding can dislodge plants and alter the composition of communities of invertebrates and microbial mats. If the ice completely melts early in the season, then ecosystems will suffer drought for the rest of the season.

Extreme events often have impacts for years after the event.  There will be long-term studies of the areas affected by the recent Antarctic heat wave. Such extreme events associated with global climate change are predicted to increase in frequency and impact, and even the most remote areas of the planet are not immune to them.

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Antarctica’s summer of extreme heat

Photo, posted January 30, 2014, courtesy of Andreas Kambanis via Flickr

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Extreme Wildfire Seasons | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers at Stanford University, autumn in California feels more like summer now as a result of climate change, and this hotter and drier weather increases the risk of longer and more dangerous wildfire seasons.

The research team, whose work was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that the frequency of extreme fire weather conditions in the fall in California has doubled since the early 1980s.  Average temperatures during the season have increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and rainfall has fallen by approximately 30%.  The most pronounced warming has occurred in the late summer and early fall.  That finding means that tinder-dry conditions coincide with the strong “Diablo” and “Santa Ana” winds that are typical in California at this time of year.     

In recent years, these conditions have fed large and fast-moving wildfires across California.  The state’s two largest wildfires, two most destructive wildfires, and the most deadly wildfire all occurred during 2017 and 2018, resulting in more than 150 deaths and $50 billion in damage.

Because summertime has typically been peak fire season, the recent spate of autumn fires is putting a strain on firefighting resources and funding.  The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could further strain emergency resources.  Since fire-prone regions have historically shared  wildfire-fighting resources throughout the year, the consequences of California’s extended wildfire season could have a global impact.  (For example, California’s recent autumn wildfires have coincided with the beginning of wildfires in Australia). 

The researchers highlight some opportunities to manage the intensifying wildfire risk in California, including limiting the trajectory of global warming in keeping with the targets identified in the United Nations’ Paris agreement.

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Researchers forecast longer, more extreme wildfire seasons

Photo, posted September 12, 2019, courtesy of the California National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saving The Arctic Permafrost | Earth Wise

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Permafrost is frozen ground – a combination of soil, rock, sand, and ice – that remains at or below freezing for at least two consecutive years.  Approximately 25% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere meets this criterion, the majority of which can be found in northern Russia, Canada, Alaska, Iceland, and Scandinavia.

But as a result of the changing climate, these permafrost soils in the Arctic are beginning to thaw.  As they thaw, large quantities of greenhouse gases could be released, further accelerating climate change.  

A new study recently published in the journal Scientific Reports explores an unconventional countermeasure: resettling massive herds of large herbivores.  According to researchers from the University of Hamburg in Germany, herds of horses, bison, and reindeer could be used to significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils. 

During Arctic winters, the air temperature is often much colder than the permafrost.  Thick layers of snow can insulate the ground from the frigid air, keeping the permafrost warm (relatively speaking). But when the snow cover is scattered and compressed by the hooves of grazing animals, the insulating effect is reduced, which intensifies the freezing of the permafrost.

If climate change continues unchecked, the research team expects permafrost temperatures to rise 3.8-degrees Celsius.  This would result in half of the world’s permafrost thawing by the year 2100.  But in contrast, researchers found that the permafrost would only warm by 2.1 degrees Celsius with the resettled animals.  This 44% reduction in permafrost temperature would preserve 80% of the existing permafrost by 2100.

Natural manipulations of ecosystems could have tremendous results. 

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How horses can save the permafrost

Photo, posted July 17, 2012, courtesy of Kitty Terwolbeck via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Clouds And Global Warming | Earth Wise

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Recent climate models from multiple organizations project that the amount of warming that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause would be much more than previously estimated.  And one of the significant changes to the models relates to the role of clouds.

Clouds have long been a major uncertainty in climate calculations.  Clouds can shade the earth and thereby provide cooling.  But clouds can also trap heat.  Which effect dominates depends on how reflective the clouds are, how high up they are, and whether it is day or night.  The dynamics of clouds are complicated.

If you fly across the ocean, you will see blankets of low clouds extending for hundreds of miles.  These marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds predominantly cool the Earth.  In fact, they shade roughly a fifth of the oceans and reflect 30-60% of the solar radiation that hits them back into space.

Recent studies indicate that as global temperatures rise, these clouds are likely to become thinner or burn off entirely, leaving more clear skies through which the sun may add another degree Celsius or more to global warming.

The concerns about clouds are part of the larger issue about feedbacks in warming the world.  It has long been clear that the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere would raise global temperature.  But there are amplifying feedback effects.  Melting large areas of snow and ice reduces reflectivity and allows the land and oceans to absorb more heat.  More water vapor entering the atmosphere traps more heat.  And now clouds are another concern.

Overall, these effects are leading to climate models predicting much larger global temperature increases, which is a scary prospect for the world.

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Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

Photo, posted September 10, 2006, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

What’s On Nature’s Calendar? | Earth Wise

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The Inuit Calendar is based on six seasons defined by weather, ice, animal migration, daylight hours and the night sky.  All these variables are in flux according to Harvard Narwhal Biologist Dr. Martin Nweeia.  Last August in the high Canadian Arctic, at 72 degrees north latitude, temperatures were at an astounding 70 degrees during the day. In 2018, the same region at the same time of year, experienced one of the coldest August months in 15 years.  

Disappearing sea ice in Hudson Bay affects migration patterns of ice-dependent species like narwhal and beluga whales and now allows more shipping traffic which produces more marine noise pollution and the risk of an oil spill. As a natural resource, the Arctic has significant deposits of iron ore, gold, diamonds, phosphate, and bauxite, so cargo shipments are increasing yearly.  

The disappearance of caribou herds and altered migrations of other animals have also blurred the seasonal changes. Caribou numbers have decreased by more than half in the last two decades.  Narwhal populations are remaining steady but are experiencing migration shifts resulting in their appearance at new locations and their absence from traditional areas.  Even the timing of the migration has changed, shifting two weeks later from normal late summer – early fall patterns.  

The night sky, which has long had identifiable reference points for Inuit observers, is also changing causing speculation about changes in the magnetic field and a polar shift or flipping of the poles. The earth’s magnetic north has been shifting toward Siberia at an alarming 30 miles each year since 2015.  Every million years, it is estimated that the poles flip three times.  No one knows if or when it will happen again. That’s a calendar with some unexpected dates. 

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–Earth Wise acknowledges script contribution from Dr. Martin Nweeia of Harvard University.

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Migratory Tundra Caribou and Wild Reindeer

Earth’s magnetic field is acting up and geologists don’t know why

Photo, posted June 27, 2014, courtesy of the Bureau of Land Management via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another Hot November

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This past fall saw yet more of the high temperatures the world has been experiencing in recent times.  Both the season (September through November) and the year to date were the second hottest in recorded history.  November itself was the second-hottest November in the 140-year global climate record.

The high temperatures were felt at both ends of the world.  Sea ice coverage across both the Arctic and Antarctic oceans fell to near-record lows in November.  Arctic sea ice coverage was nearly 13% below the 1981-2010 average, while Antarctic coverage was 6.35% below average.

The average global land and ocean surface temperature for November was 1.66 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.  The year-to-date global temperature was 1.69 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.  These numbers correspond to almost a 1-degree Celsius increase, which should be compared with the Paris Climate Accord goal of keeping that increase to no more than 1.5 degrees.

November was the hottest November on record for South America, Africa, and the Hawaiian Islands.  The Caribbean had its second-hottest November, and Europe had its seventh hottest on record.

The world’s average sea surface temperature ranked second warmest for the year to date and was only 0.05 degrees cooler than the all-time record.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues monthly global climate reports and for quite some time, these reports seem to all be the same.  Another new record for heat or at least another near record.  We have to expect that this trend will continue at least until the world starts making progress in dealing with its root cause.

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November 2019 was 2nd hottest on record for the planet

Photo, posted July 20, 2016, courtesy of Salehin Chowdhury via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

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According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

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Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Geoengineering And Volcanoes

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Solar geoengineering is a theoretical strategy for curbing the effects of climate change by introducing aerosol particles in the upper atmosphere to reflect some of the Sun’s radiation back into space and thereby cool the planet.  It would basically be intentionally tinkering with the climate system on a global scale.

The concept is fraught with the danger of unintended consequences and most experts consider the idea almost unthinkable.  But there are those who see it as a last resort if all our other efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change are unsuccessful.

Proponents of the idea like to describe the technique as being like a human-made volcano.  Major volcanic eruptions spew ash particles into the atmosphere which can linger for as long as a few years.  The result is cooler temperatures, sometimes across much of the globe.  The Krakatoa eruption of 1883 lowered average Northern Hemisphere temperatures by more than 2 degrees and created chaotic weather patterns until about 1888.

Researchers at the Carnegie Institution and two Chinese research institutions used sophisticated modeling techniques to compare the effects on the climate of a volcanic eruption with long-term geoengineering deployment.

They found that the volcanic eruption created a greater temperature difference between the land and sea than the geoengineering and resulted in very different precipitation scenarios.  In both cases, there would be less available water for people on land.

Overall, the study demonstrated that volcanic eruptions are imperfect analogs for geoengineering and that scientists should be very cautious about extrapolating too much from them.  It is important to evaluate geoengineering from an informed position, but the truth is that it represents a great and perilous unknown.

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Geoengineering Versus A Volcano

Photo, posted November 1, 2002, courtesy of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cooling Down Urban Heat Islands

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Researchers have known about and studied the urban heat island effect for quite some time.  Since large cities began to emerge in the 19th century, it has been understood that various aspects of the urban environment lead to warmer temperatures than the surrounding countryside.

Researchers led by a group at Portland State University in Oregon have been utilizing a new way of studying the urban heat island effect.  They have used citizen science volunteers in 24 cities around the world to map temperatures in the cities at ground level in great detail using mobile sensors attached to slow-moving vehicles.  Previous studies have used data from satellite or stationary sensors.  They have learned that the urban heat island effect is more complicated, more varied, and subtler than the earlier data indicated.

They found that there are six things that affect urban heat. Three are living — the volume of the tree canopy, the height of the tree canopy, and the ground level vegetation. Three are human-built — the volume of buildings, the difference in building heights, and the coloring of the buildings.

Buildings can have both negative and positive effects. Tall buildings that cast shade actually lower relative afternoon temperatures, while densely packed shorter buildings, like the big-box stores in suburban areas, lead to hotter afternoon temperatures. The studies show that increasing the difference in building heights in an area creates more air circulation, which has a cooling effect.

The study also showed that urban heat is a social justice issue.  Lower-income neighborhoods largely barren of trees have considerably higher temperatures than more affluent, tree-shaded areas.

Such detailed research can be used to guide decisions in urban planning with regard to trees, building heights, and the color and type of surfaces in our urban spaces.

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Can We Turn Down the Temperature on Urban Heat Islands?

Photo, posted July 21, 2009, courtesy of Daniel Dionne via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Upside Of Climate Change

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In contrast with most countries in the world, the main political factions in the United States have very different views of climate change.  Somehow, one side of the aisle remains skeptical about the changing climate even as temperature records are broken, arctic ice disappears, and powerful storms become increasingly common.

But putting aside the increasingly inexplicable political schism about climate change, there are instances where the consequences of the warming climate are not all dire.  In fact, there are places where climate change is having a positive effect.

One such place is West Virginia, where research studies are finding a real upside to the changing climate.

A recent study of the climate in West Virginia over the period from 1900 to 2016 found the maximum temperatures trended downward, average minimum temperatures ascended, and annual precipitation increased.  On average, West Virginians are now seeing cooler summers, warmer winters and wetter weather.

Given these changes, there have been big changes in agriculture.  Yields of important crops like hay, corn, winter wheat, and soybeans have all increased.  The winter season has shrunk by as much as 20 days and the growing season itself has increased by approximately 13 days.  A number of crops that historically did not fare well in West Virginia may now become viable.  It may even be possible to pursue double cropping, meaning that the longer growing season may allow farmers to raise one crop, harvest it, and then raise and harvest a second crop within the same year.

In the big picture, climate change is shaping up as a global calamity, but for a few people in certain places – such as West Virginia – it may have some real upside.

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The positive implications of…climate change? WVU researcher sees agricultural, food availability and economic possibilities

Photo, posted November 12, 2014, courtesy of Mike via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Europe Is Warming Faster Than Predicted

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A new study has found that Europe is warming faster than even climate models projected.  The number of summer days with extreme heat in Europe has tripled since the 1950s, while the number of days with extreme cold has decreased by factors of two or three depending on the region.

According to climate scientists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, the climate trends are much larger than what would come from natural variability and are a clear signal of climate change.  Extremely hot days in Europe have become hotter by an average of more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit while extremely cold days have warmed by more than 5 degrees.  The research examined data from weather stations across Europe from 1950 to 2018.  Over 90% of the stations recorded increasing temperatures over time, a percentage much too high to be purely from natural climate variability.  The results also showed that the region was warming even faster than climate models projected.

The research results come after an extremely hot summer in Europe.  Southern France hit 114.8 degrees, a new record, in June.  Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium all recorded all-time national temperature highs.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently announced that July was the hottest month ever recorded.

European summers and winters will only grow hotter in the coming years as climate change accelerates.  The rapidly increasing temperatures will impact cities and people that are unprepared for them and pose real risks for residents in the coming decades.  Extreme heat is dangerous because it stresses the human body, potentially leading to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

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Europe warming faster than expected due to climate change

Photo, posted July 30, 2011, courtesy of Marcel de Jong via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hundred-Year Floods Becoming One-Year Floods

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By definition, 100-year floods are intense flooding events that historically tend to happen once every 100 years.  Put another way, a 100-year flood has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

According to new research published in the journal Nature Communications, rising global temperatures may turn 100-year floods into annual occurrences in parts of the United States.  The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be a result of rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

The study, led by researchers at Princeton University and MIT, examined flood risk for 171 counties along the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.  Their analysis concluded that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England.  In the US Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods as often as every year up to as seldom as every 30 years.

Previously, most analysis of coastal flooding has looked only at the impact of sea level rise on flood risk.  This new research combined the risk of rising seas with projected changes in coastal storms over the course of this century.  Data from the Gulf of Mexico revealed that the effect of stronger storms is comparable with or even more significant than the effect of sea level change for 40% of the counties studied.  So, neglecting the effects of storm climatology change is likely to significantly underestimate the impact of climate change in many places.

The hope is that more comprehensive flood risk data can be used to create more effective climate resiliency strategies all the way down to the county level.

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100-Year Floods Could Soon Happen Annually in Parts of U.S., Study Finds

Photo, posted August 31, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Contrails And Climate Change

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The white wispy trails of condensation produced by the exhaust from aircraft engines have been the subject of a popular conspiracy theory for quite a while.  The story goes that the long-lasting condensation trails are actually “chemtrails” composed of chemical or biological agents left in the sky by aircraft and are intentionally sprayed for a variety of nefarious purposes undisclosed to the general public.  This story, of course, is nonsense.

But while contrails are not deliberate efforts to modify weather, control population, manipulate psychology, or any of the other bizarre things attributed to them, it turns out that they are having unfortunate effects on the climate.

It turns out that contrails are creating an often-invisible thermal blanket of cloud across the planet that has a significant effect on atmospheric temperatures.  Contrails are essentially human-made clouds that form above 25,000 feet where the air is moist and colder than -40 degrees Celsius.  At times, contrails stick around in the sky, either as tight, white lines like chalk marks, or by spreading to create thin layers of ice clouds.  At any one time, contrail-created clouds cover more than half a percent of global skies.

Research has shown that when contrails are around, nighttime temperatures can go up appreciably.  After 9/11, when all U.S. flights were grounded for three days, the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures actually increased by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit because nights were cooler.

The effects of aviation on climate, both from the CO2 emissions from aircraft engines and from these contrail effects are becoming an increasingly important issue. To complicate matters further, as aircraft engines become more efficient, they will create more, whiter, and longer-lasting contrails.

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How Airplane Contrails Are Helping Make the Planet Warmer

Photo, posted May 15, 2012, courtesy of Mike Lewinski via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Heat And Plastic Bottles

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In the middle of July, Americans along the East Coast and in the Midwest suffered through a massive heat wave that saw actual temperatures soaring and so-called feels-like temperatures go much higher.  The punishing heat had many of us reaching for those plastic water bottles all day long as we tried to keep hydrated.

Studies have shown that those single-use plastic bottles do not handle the heat very well.  Most plastic items release tiny amounts of chemicals into the beverages or food that they contain.   But the hotter it gets, the more the substances in plastic can move into food or drinking water.  As temperature and time increase, the chemical bonds in plastics increasingly break down and chemicals are more likely to leach.

A study at Arizona State University in 2008 looked at how heat sped up the release of the element antimony in bottles made of the common plastic PET.  Antimony is used to manufacture the plastic and can be toxic in high doses.  At mild temperatures, very little antimony is released.  But PET and other plastics can leach a variety of chemicals when exposed to higher temperatures.

According to the FDA, the amounts of chemicals released by plastics are too miniscule to cause health problems.  However, scientists are still looking at the long-term effects of using so much plastic.  The question is whether all those small doses can eventually add up to something not so harmless.  Given that we don’t really know the cumulative effect of being surrounded by plastics in the goods we buy as well as the presence of microplastics in our water, it seems like a good idea to try to limit our exposure when alternatives are available.

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Exposed to extreme heat, plastic bottles may ultimately become unsafe

Photo, posted June 7, 2013, courtesy of Tim Stahmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Fighting Climate Change With Trees

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We cut down forests all around the world for a myriad of reasons, including livestock grazing, agricultural production, timber, and urban development.  But what if we stopped cutting down forests for these things and additionally grew new forests on vacant lots and any other available parcels of land on earth?  What impact could this have on our survival? 

For the first time, scientists have quantified what impact this plan could have.  According to a new study by researchers at ETH Zurich – a university that specializes in science, technology, and engineering – the planet could support nearly 2.5 billion additional acres of forest without shrinking current cities and farms.  When all those acres of forest mature, the trees could store an extra 200 gigatons of carbon.  This reforestation could stave off the most devastating impacts of global climate change. 

Russia could restore the most acres of forest – 373 million acres to be precise – followed by the United States with 255 million acres and Canada with 193 million acres.  Australia, Brazil, and China also have large areas well-suited for forest restoration. 

The average global temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the industrial age with its surge in greenhouse gas emissions.  Temperatures are projected to rise even more in the coming years as the planet continues to warm.   

Trees absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in their roots and branches.  The absorbed carbon becomes part of the soil when trees die and decompose, and it can linger there for millennia depending on things like temperature and soil management.  Trees are critical in the fight against climate change. 

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How trees could save the climate

Photo, posted June 18, 2011, courtesy of K.W. Barrett via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)