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Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

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The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe.  According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent.  When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse.  They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor.  The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries.   They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality.  Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years.  With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Trouble For Emperor Penguins | Earth Wise

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Emperor penguins are the tallest and heaviest of all living penguin species.  The loss of sea ice in Antarctica last year has led to unprecedented breeding failure in some emperor penguin colonies.

In a study published by the British Antarctic Survey, researchers found that no chicks survived from four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellinhausen Sea.   Satellite images showed the loss of sea ice at breeding sites, well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers.

Emperor penguins are dependent on stable sea ice that is firmly attached to the shore from April through the end of the year.  Arctic sea ice reached an all-time low in December 2022 with the most extreme loss seen in the central and eastern Bellinghausen Sea where there was a 100% loss of sea ice late the year.

This year, the sea ice extent in Antarctica is still far below all previous records for this time of year.  As of August, when oceans normally are freezing up, there were still areas that were ice-free.

Emperor penguin populations have not had to contend with large-scale hunting, habitat loss, overfishing, or other human-caused problems in the modern era, but climate change may be their undoing.  They have previously responded to incidents of sea ice loss by moving to more stable sites in the following year.  But this strategy will not be successful if the sea ice habitat is affected across entire regions of Antarctica.

Scientists are predicting that 90% of emperor penguin colonies will be quasi-extinct by the end of the century, assuming current global warming trends continue.

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Loss of sea ice causes catastrophic breeding failure for emperor penguins

Photo, posted October 7, 2017, courtesy of Christopher Michel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Missing Antarctic Sea Ice | Earth Wise

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It is summer here in the United States, but it is winter in Antarctica.  Antarctic sea ice is water that forms and melts entirely in the ocean and it has a pattern of growth and reduction that has been monitored by satellites for the past 44 years.  The area of sea ice that surrounds the continent of Antarctica is known as the sea ice ‘extent’ and it had been quite stable for much of those years.

In 2016, the sea ice extent began to decline.  Since then, there have been several record summer lows with both the summers of 2021/22 and 2022/23 setting new minimum records.

This August, the deviation from all previous records intensified.  This winter’s sea ice extent is over 900,000 square miles below the long-term average, an area about the size of Greenland or, for example, Texas and Alaska combined.

Climate models have long predicted that Antarctic sea ice would reduce as a result of global warming but the current change to sea-ice extent is so dramatic that it is difficult to explain.  Sea ice extent is affected by multiple factors including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the strength of the southern hemisphere jet stream, and regional low-pressure systems.  The warming climate is certainly the overall force that is changing Antarctic sea ice extent over time.

Antarctic sea ice extent is important because it covers a vast area of the dark Southern Sea with a bright white surface that reflects the sun’s energy back into space, helping to reduce temperatures at the pole and protecting glaciers and polar ice sheets. 

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The mystery of the missing Antarctic sea ice

Photo, posted November 7, 2016, courtesy of Rob Oo via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Methane Emissions And The Paris Agreement | Earth Wise

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The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted at the UN Climate Change Conference in 2015.  Its goal is to strengthen the global response to climate change by committing to limit the rise in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit that increase to just 1.5°C. 

Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by or around 2050, as well as deep reductions in methane and other emissions. 

According to a new study by researchers from Simon Fraser University in Canada, reductions in methane emissions are needed urgently  if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.  The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment, suggests that global warming levels could be kept below 2°C if methane mitigation efforts are initiated globally before 2030.  However, delaying methane mitigation to the year 2040 or beyond would increase the risk of exceeding 2°C, even if net-zero carbon dioxide emissions were achieved.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to global temperature increases over the last two centuries.  However, methane is known to warm the planet 86 times more effectively than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.

During the past 40 years, more than 60% of global methane emissions have been produced as a result of human activities, such as fossil fuel exploitation, livestock production, and waste from landfills.

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Delaying methane mitigation increases risk of breaching Paris Agreement climate goal, study finds

Photo, posted July 22, 2011, courtesy of Steven W. via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Marine Heat Waves | Earth Wise

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In late July, the ocean temperature measured in Florida Bay, between the southern end of the Florida mainland and the Florida Keys, was 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit, a possible world record for sea surface temperature.  There is no official record keeping for ocean temperatures, but the highest previous reading ever reported was 99.7 degrees in the middle of Kuwait Bay in 2020. 

What is going on is a marine heat wave and marine heat waves can last for weeks, months, or even years.  The current Gulf of Mexico marine heat wave has been present for several months, beginning in February or March.  Experimental forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the extreme ocean temperatures in the area may persist through at least October.

The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat associated with global warming.  Therefore, marine heat waves all over the planet are becoming warmer over time.  The current marine heat wave would likely have occurred even without climate change, but because of it, the event is extraordinarily warm.

Marine heat waves cause stress to corals and other marine ecosystems.  Exposure to extreme temperatures for long periods of time causes corals to eject the algae that live inside of them, resulting in white or pale coral.  This coral bleaching leaves the coral without food and will ultimately kill it.

In general, extreme heat can be destructive and deadly for marine ecosystems.  A massive marine heat wave known as “the Blob” took hold in 2013-2016 in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and led to an ecological cascade of fishery collapses, toxic algal blooms, and record numbers of humpback whale entanglements.

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The ongoing marine heat waves in U.S. waters, explained

Photo, posted December 25, 2016, courtesy of Paul Asman and Jill Lenoble via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Phoenix Is Frying | Earth Wise

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The mythical Phoenix is a bird that repeatedly dies in a fire of its own making.  During July, the five million inhabitants of greater Phoenix Arizona may have felt like they were reliving that myth as multiple temperature records were shattered in a massive heatwave.

On June 30, the high temperature in Phoenix was 110 degrees.  From then on, the daily highs were relentlessly at or above 110 degrees, topping out at 119 on July 20.  The previous record for consecutive days at or above 110 was 18 set in June 1974.  The streak continued all the way until July 31, when incoming desert monsoons resulted in the high temperature dropping to 107 degrees – ending the streak at 31 days.  Along the way, there were 16 days with temperatures at or above 115 degrees. 

During the month, there were 17 consecutive days when the lowest temperature in Phoenix was at least 90 degrees.  The previous record for that was 7 days, set in 2020.  Because of these lofty low temperatures, July was also the hottest month in terms of average temperature with a reading well above 102 degrees.  It was the first time that the average temperature has ever been in three digits.  The previous record was 99.1 degrees in 2020.

Phoenix is an extreme case, but it was not alone in having a hot July.  Globally, it was the hottest July on record that included major heat waves in the U.S., Mexico, China, southern Europe, and elsewhere.  The daily record for the hottest average temperature on Earth ever measured was also broken several times during the month.

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Phoenix heat wave is shattering temperature records

Photo, posted September 22, 2022, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Still Increasing | Earth Wise

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Recent research has found that the level of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity has reached an all-time high level of nearly 60 billion tons a year.  Despite increasing public attention, policy measures, and adoption of green technologies, the pace at which these changes have been taking place has simply not kept up with the ongoing burning of fossil fuels by increasingly industrialized societies.  The rate at which greenhouse gas emissions has increased over time has indeed slowed, but emissions need to start decreasing and as soon and as much as possible.

Human-induced warming has reached a ten-year average from 2013-2022 of 1.14 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, up from a 1.07 degrees average between 2010-2019. 

Scientists have calculated a carbon budget that describes how much more carbon dioxide can be emitted before global warming exceeds the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius that is widely predicted to lead to potentially catastrophic changes to the climate.  In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculated that the remaining carbon budget was about 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide.  Over the past three years, nearly half of that carbon budget has already been exhausted by the continuing onslaught of carbon emissions.

Researchers describe their study as a timely wake-up call that the pace and scale of climate action to date has been insufficient and that we need to change policy and approaches in light of the latest evidence about the state of the climate system.  Time is no longer on our side in trying to stave off the worst effects of climate change.

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Greenhouse gas emissions at ‘an all-time high’, warn scientists

Photo, posted September 18, 2015, courtesy of In Hiatus via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And Species Tipping Points | Earth Wise

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In climate science, tipping points are critical thresholds that, once crossed, lead to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system. For example, surpassing a 1.5 degree C rise in global warming has long been considered a tipping point for the planet. 

According to a new study led by researchers from University College London, climate change will abruptly push species over tipping points as their geographic ranges reach unforeseen temperatures. 

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, the research team analyzed data from more than 35,000 species of animals and seagrasses from every continent and ocean basin, alongside climate projections up to 2100.  The researchers found a consistent trend:  for many animals, the thermal exposure threshold will be crossed for much of their geographic range within the same decade. 

The thermal exposure threshold is defined as the first five consecutive years where temperatures consistently exceed the most extreme monthly temperature experienced by a species across its geographic range over recent history. 

The researchers also found that the extent of global warming will make a big difference for animals.  If the planet warms by just 1.5°C, 15% of species studied will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30% of their current  geographic range in a single decade.  But this figure will double to 30% of species at 2.5°C of warming.

Since their data provides an early warning system, the researchers hope that their findings will help species conservation efforts. 

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Climate change to push species over abrupt tipping points

Photo, posted May 27, 2017, courtesy of Sarah Lemarié via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Removing Carbon Dioxide Won’t Get the Job Done | Earth Wise

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Limiting global warming to no more than 1.5-2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is a crucial goal for humankind.  Countries, companies, and other organizations around the world have committed to achieving ‘net zero’ emissions.  This is distinct from zero emissions in that it includes removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to offset the amounts we are putting into it.  Carbon dioxide removal is increasingly touted as the way to achieve emission goals.  But it is a realistic strategy?  According to a recent paper by a leading climate scientist in the journal Nature, the answer in the short term is decidedly no.

In 2022, the world emitted 45 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  Last year’s bipartisan Infrastructure Law earmarked $3.5 billion for developing four direct air capture hubs in the US.  Each of these is expected to eventually be able to extract a little over a million tons of CO2 from the air each year. These hubs combined would therefore remove about 52 minutes’ worth of the year’s emissions over the course of the year. 

The bottom line is that unless we drastically reduce emissions, all the carbon dioxide removal strategies combined will scarcely make a dent in the problem.

We will never be able to eliminate all sources of emissions, particularly from certain industries, and carbon dioxide removal will be a very important technology to address those emissions, but in the big picture, it is essential that the world decarbonizes as much as possible and as soon as possible.

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Carbon dioxide removal is not a current climate solution — we need to change the narrative

Photo, posted January 19, 2009, courtesy of Wladimir Labeikovsky via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record Polar Ice Melting | Earth Wise

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Sea levels are rising and ocean warming is responsible for the bulk of that rise.  As water heats up, it expands, which drives up sea levels.  But on top of that, global warming is melting the polar ice sheets, and that is leading to about a quarter of the world’s sea level rise. So far, polar melting has fueled about an inch of sea level rise, two-thirds from Greenland and one third from Antarctica.   According to scientists, by the end of this century, melting polar ice caps could raise sea levels between 6 and 10 inches.

The seven worst years for polar ice sheet melting have occurred during the past decade.  The worst year on record was 2019.  The loss in 2019 was driven by an Arctic summer heatwave, which resulted in record melting from Greenland, amounting to nearly 500 billion tons melted that year.  Antarctica lost 180 billion tons of ice that year, mostly due to melting glaciers and record melting from the Antarctic Peninsula.

Ice losses from Greenland and Antarctica can now be reliably measured by satellites in space.  A team of researchers led by Northumbria University in the UK has combined 50 satellite surveys taken between 1992 and 2020.

They have found that the Earth’s polar ice sheets have lost over 8,000 billion tons of ice over that time period.  That much ice corresponds to an ice cube roughly 12 miles high.

The satellite technology is now at the stage where the ice sheet status can be continuously updated.  Such monitoring is critical to predict the future behavior of the ice sheets and provide risk warnings of the dangers that coastal communities around the world will face.

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Polar ice sheet melting records have toppled during the past decade

Photo, posted December 19, 2017, courtesy of Jasmine Nears via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Major League Baseball And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Major League Baseball is one of the most historic professional sports leagues in the United States and represents the highest level of professional baseball.  Throughout its history, MLB has endured many changes to rules, equipment, and strategy.  As a result of these changes, the league has been segmented into several distinct eras, including the dead ball era and the live ball era. 

According to a new study by researchers from Dartmouth College, baseball could be on the cusp of another era where higher temperatures due to global warming are increasingly having an impact on the game.  The report, which was published in the scientific journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, found that more than 500 home runs since 2010 can be attributed to the warmer and thinner air caused by global warming  The research team expects several hundred more home runs per season to come with future climate warming.

While only 1% of recent home runs are attributable to climate change, researchers expect that figure to jump to 10% or more by 2100 if climate change continues unabated. 

The researchers examined each major league ballpark to gauge how the average number of home runs per year could rise with each 1-degree Celsius increase in global average temperature.  They found that Wrigley Field – home of the Chicago Cubs – would have the largest spike with more than 15 home runs per season.  Meanwhile, domed Tropicana Field – home of the Tampa Bay Rays – would remain unaffected by the hotter temperatures outside. 

Perhaps the next era for baseball will be known as “climate-ball.”

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Spike in Major League Home Runs Tied to Climate Change

Photo, posted September 23, 2021, courtesy of Joe Passe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Elephants And Global Warming | Earth Wise

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A study by researchers at Saint Louis University has found that elephants play a key role in creating forests that store large amounts of atmospheric carbon and in maintaining the biodiversity of forests in Africa.  Since elephants are endangered, their status represents a significant threat to an ecosystem that is very important to the Earth’s climate.

The African rainforest contains trees with both low carbon density (light wood) and high carbon density (heavy wood).  High carbon density trees grow more slowly and can be crowded out by the faster growing low carbon density trees rising above them.  Elephants affect the relative abundance of these trees by feeding more on the low carbon density trees which are more palatable and nutritious.  This thinning of the forest allows the trees that sequester the most carbon to flourish.

Elephants are also excellent dispersers of the seeds of high carbon density trees.  Essentially, elephants are the gardeners of the forest.  They plant the forest with high carbon density trees and get rid of the weeds – in this case, the low carbon density trees.  According to the study, if elephants were to become extinct, the African rainforest – the second largest on earth – would gradually lose between six and nine percent of its ability to capture atmospheric carbon.

Elephants have been hunted by humans for millennia.   Gaining support for protecting them has mostly been driven by the argument that everybody loves elephants.  Focusing on their role in maintaining forest diversity has not driven much more action.  The hope is that the evidence of how important elephants are for climate mitigation will be taken seriously by policy makers to generate the support needed for improved elephant conservation.

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Can Elephants Save the Planet?

Photo, posted March 15, 2008, courtesy of Michelle Gadd/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Promises | Earth Wise

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The United Nations climate change conference that recently took place in Egypt is an annual event.  Last year, the conference was in Glasgow, Scotland, and the participants – heads of state and business leaders – produced a long list of promises aimed at fighting global warming.  How have the countries and companies making those promises done so far?  Unfortunately, not very well.

Participants made pledges for progress in several major areas.

Countries promised to cut greenhouse gas emissions faster, but only 24 countries out of the 140 participants have actually done so.

Countries agreed to expedite the deployment of clean energy and the phasing out of government subsidies for fossil fuels.  There has been considerable progress on green power, but coal use actually reached record highs this year primarily because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which caused natural gas prices to spike.

Countries pledged $100 billion a year to help poorer countries shift to cleaner energy sources.  There has been lots of effort in this area, but the target has not been met and it isn’t clear that all the money is going where it is supposed to.

More than 100 countries pledged to slash methane emissions, but most nations are only getting started.

More than 130 countries pledged to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030.  Deforestation is slowly declining, but not fast enough to meet the goals of the pledge.

An important goal for this year’s climate conference was to try to find a way to not just set admirable and valuable climate goals, but to actually accomplish them.  It isn’t easy, but it is essential.

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Countries Made Bold Climate Promises Last Year. How Are They Doing?

Photo, posted July 25, 2009, courtesy of Wagner T. Cassimiro via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Trees Are Growing Bigger | Earth Wise

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The alarming rate of carbon dioxide flowing into the atmosphere is having a real and actually positive effect on plant life. Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide make plants more productive because photosynthesis makes use of the sun’s energy to synthesize sugar out of carbon dioxide and water.  Plants make use of the sugar both as a source of energy and as the basic building block for growth.  When carbon dioxide levels go up, plants can take it up faster, supercharging the rate of photosynthesis.

In a new study published in the journal Nature Communications, scientists at Ohio State University found that trees are feasting on decades of carbon dioxide emissions and are growing bigger as a result. 

The researchers tracked wood volume in 10 different tree groups from 1997 to 2017 and found that all of them except aspens and birches grew larger.  Over that time period, carbon dioxide levels climbed from 363 parts per million to 405 parts per million.  According to the study, each 1% increase in lifetime CO2 exposure for trees has led to more than a 1% increase in wood volume.

In the big picture, the news isn’t so positive.  The global warming caused by increasing carbon dioxide levels increasingly threatens the forests of the world.  It has led to worsening droughts, insect infestations, and wildfires.  So overall, increasing levels of carbon dioxide are by no means a good thing for the world’s trees.  However, since trees are growing bigger more quickly, it means that planting them is an increasingly cost-effective method for fighting climate change because the same number of trees can sequester more carbon.

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As Carbon Dioxide Grows More Abundant, Trees Are Growing Bigger, Study Finds

Photo, posted September 12, 2015, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The U.S. Ratifies A Climate Treaty | Earth Wise

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In a rare display of bipartisanship, the U.S. Senate voted 69-27 in favor of ratifying a key international climate agreement aimed at curbing global warming.  The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which has been ratified by 137 other countries so far, ends the use of climate-warming hydrofluorocarbons that are 1,000 times more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the atmosphere.   This is the first international climate treaty that the U.S. has joined in 30 years.

The Kigali Agreement was established in Kigali, Rwanda in 2016 to phase out HFCs, which have been the replacements for CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) in air conditioners and refrigerators.  CFCs were found to be depleting the ozone layers that protects the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays.  HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, but they have been a significant contributor to global warming.

The U.S. ratification of the treaty is largely symbolic.  The American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, passed by Congress in 2020, gave the EPA authority to regulate HFCs and the agency has already been doing so.  However, the Senate action shows that the U.S. is back on the international climate bandwagon. 

Failure to ratify the Kigali Amendment would have closed segments of the chemical and manufacturing industries to U.S. producers after 2023 because the Montreal Protocol prohibits trade with countries not party to it or its amendments.

Environmental advocates are hopeful that the U.S. can move forward on other climate actions.  A next step would be to focus on methane, the second leading driver of climate change after carbon dioxide.

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Senate Votes to Ratify the Kigali Amendment, Joining 137 Nations in an Effort to Curb Global Warming

Photo, posted June 13, 2017, courtesy of UNIDO via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Propane Refrigerants | Earth Wise

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About 10% of the world’s total electricity supply is used for air conditioning.  If current temperature trends continue, the energy demands for space cooling will more than triple by the year 2050.  Air conditioning is a double threat to the environment.  Apart from using lots of energy, ACs also make use of halogenated refrigerants that are extremely powerful greenhouse gases.

The most common space cooling appliances are split-air conditioners, which use an indoor unit and an outdoor unit connected by pipes.  These split ACS mostly utilize HCFC-22 and HFC-410 as refrigerants, which have global warming potential scores as high as 2,256 – meaning they trap 2,256 times more heat than carbon dioxide. 

A study by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Austria has shown that propane is a far better choice as an air conditioning refrigerant.  Its global warming potential is actually less than 1 meaning it traps less heat than carbon dioxide.  According to the study, if air conditioners switched to propane refrigerants, the world would avoid about a tenth of a degree Celsius of additional warming, which is a significant contribution to meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Propane-based split-ACs are already available commercially in China and India.  Elsewhere, many national regulations prohibit their use, primarily due to codes restricting the use of refrigerants with higher flammability.  Given the increasingly urgent need for climate action, it seems to be time to reconsider regulations on refrigerants.

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Propane — a solution for more sustainable air conditioning

Photo, posted March 24, 2021, courtesy of Phyxter Home Services via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And The Next Pandemic | Earth Wise

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As the planet continues to heat up, animals big and small are moving towards the poles to escape the heat.  According to researchers, these animals are likely to come into contact with other animals that they normally wouldn’t, and are likely to relocate to regions with large human populations.  These factors create opportunities for pathogens to get into new hosts, which dramatically increases the risk of a viral jump to humans.  Climate change could lead to the next pandemic.      

An international research team led by scientists at Georgetown University recently made this connection between climate change and viral transmission.  In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature, researchers conducted the first comprehensive assessment of how climate change will restructure the global mammalian virome.  Their work focused on geographic range shifts. 

As animals eccounter other animals for the first time, the study projects that they will share thousands of viruses.  And as animals increasingly move into the same areas as humans, there will be greater opportunities for these viruses to jump to humans.  The research team says that the impact on conservation and human health could be alarming as viruses jump between species at unprecedented rates. 

In our warming world, much of this process may unfortunately already be underway.  And efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to stop these events from unfolding. 

According to the study, climate change will become the biggest upstream risk factor for disease emergence, eclipsing deforestation, industrial agriculture, and the wildlife trade.  Pairing wildlife disease surveillance with real-time studies of environmental change may be part of the solution to predicting and preventing the next pandemic. 

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Climate change could spark the next pandemic, new study finds

Coronavirus and Climate Change

Photo, posted October 16, 2014, courtesy of Shawn Thomas / NPS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wind And Solar And Meeting Climate Goals | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the climate think tank Ember, the rapid growth that has been going on for solar and wind power could allow the global electricity sector to do its part in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In 2021, solar power grew by 23% worldwide and wind power grew by 14%.  The Netherlands, Australia, and Vietnam had the largest gains in renewable energy.  Solar power in Vietnam grew by 337%.

The trends over the past decade, if continued across the globe, would result in the power sector being on track for meeting climate goals.  But not all the news is good.  The overall power sector has not been adequately reducing emissions.  Coal power actually grew by 9% last year as a result of increased demand for power during the rapid economic recovery in the easing of the pandemic shutdowns.  A spike in natural gas prices made coal more cost-competitive.

In order for the power sector to do its part in keeping warming below 1.5 degrees, wind and solar power will need to provide 40% of the world’s power by 2030 and nearly 70% by 2050.  Today, they supply only 10% of the world’s electricity.

With rising gas prices during Russia’s war with Ukraine, there is real danger of increased use of coal, threatening the gains made by renewable energy.

Nonetheless, a study published in Oxford Open Energy modeled various scenarios for the growth of renewable energy and found that it is feasible to meet climate goals.  In order to achieve this, countries’ policies will need to stimulate significant increases in energy and resource efficiency and rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies, promote strong environmental actions, and encourage low population growth.

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Rapid Growth of Wind and Solar Could Help Limit Warming to 1.5 degrees C

Photo, posted October 11, 2011, courtesy of Michael Coghlan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Permafrost Thaw | Earth Wise

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We’ve talked about permafrost before.  It is the frozen soil, rock, or sediment piled up in the Arctic that has been there at least for two years but, for the most part, for millennia or even over a million years.  Permafrost holds the carbon-filled remains of vegetation and animals that froze before they could start decomposing.   Estimates are that there are nearly 2,000 billion tons of carbon trapped in Arctic permafrost.  To put that in perspective, annual global carbon emissions are less than 40 billion tons.

Keeping all that carbon frozen plays a critical role in preventing the planet from rapidly heating. The ongoing warming of the Arctic is causing the subsurface ground to thaw and release long-held carbon to the atmosphere.

Scientists from Europe and the US are working together to better track permafrost carbon dynamics.  They are trying to understand the mechanisms that lead to abrupt thaws in the permafrost that have taken place in some locations.  These rapid thawing events are not well understood.  Researchers are also studying the effects of the increasingly frequent wildfires in the Arctic on the permafrost.

Researchers are using satellites to better understand the effects climate change is having on the Arctic environment and how these changes, in turn, are adding to the climate crisis.  Permafrost cannot be directly observed from space, so that its presence has to be inferred from measurements like land-surface temperature and soil moisture readings.  Terrestrial observations are also necessary for understanding how greenhouse gases – both CO2 and methane – are being emitted from the Arctic.

Thawing permafrost is a ticking timebomb for the environment that demands the growing attention of the scientific community.

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Permafrost thaw: it’s complicated

Photo, posted January 24, 2014, courtesy of Brandt Meixell / USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Antarctic Ice Collapse | Earth Wise

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In Antarctica, a huge chunk of the Larsen B Ice Shelf collapsed suddenly and spectacularly in January.

The Larsen Ice Shelf is located on the northeastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula on the Weddell Sea.  It was formed over the course of more than 12,000 years.  The Weddell Sea used to be a completely frozen body of water.  The famous Ernest Shackleton expedition in 1915 was trapped in its ice.  But the Antarctic Peninsula has been steadily warming in recent decades.

The Larsen A Ice shelf collapsed in 1995 and the 1,250-square-mile Larsen B Ice Shelf collapsed in 2002.  After that event, a portion of the detached ice shelf refroze in 2011 and was attached to the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf.  The refrozen ice was called the Larsen B embayment.

In January, the embayment broke apart, taking with it a portion of the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf.  It disintegrated within a matter of days.  The combined Larsen Ice Shelves – called A, B, C, and D – once extended along a 1000-mile stretch of the eastern Antarctic Peninsula.  Since 1995, it has shrunk from 33,000 square miles to 26,000 square miles.

These ice shelves float on the ocean, so their loss does not actually increase global sea levels.   However, the shelves act as dams that hold back glaciers located on the land behind them.  The loss of Antarctic ice shelves dramatically increases the rate at which glaciers flow into the sea, and that does increase global sea levels. 

Now that the sea ice from the Larsen B embayment is gone, it is likely that there will be additional inland ice losses from the newly exposed glaciers.

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Remnant of Antarctica’s Larsen B Ice Shelf Disintegrates

Photo, posted February 13, 2018, courtesy of NASA/Nathan Kurtz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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