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Why The Arctic Is Warming So Fast | Earth Wise

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The Arctic has been warming at the fastest rate of any place on Earth.  There have long been observations of amplification of Arctic warming, meaning that its temperature increases have been well above what would be expected from the global temperature rise.

Many climate models have attributed this warming to the melting of sea ice.  As the bright white ice disappears for longer periods of the year, the dark surface waters that are exposed absorb sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space the way the ice does.  This is known as the ice-albedo feedback.  But it does not entirely explain the amount of warming in the Arctic.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory that helps to explain what is going on.

In the areas of the Arctic Ocean where there is sea ice, the water is actually warmer at depth and colder near the surface.  The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic Oceans while the surface water is cooled by the ice.  The increasing temperature difference between surface and deeper water causes a greater upward flow of heat.  This was first observed in research cruises that revealed evidence that the Arctic Ocean water was becoming more turbulent over time.

According to computer modeling, this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

There are multiple ongoing studies looking at the Arctic warming trend.  Other factors that have contributed over time are the presence of chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere.   That contribution is waning since the use of CFCs has been phasing out over time.

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Researchers Find New Reason Why Arctic is Warming So Fast

Photo, posted April 19, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Clouds And Global Warming | Earth Wise

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Recent climate models from multiple organizations project that the amount of warming that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause would be much more than previously estimated.  And one of the significant changes to the models relates to the role of clouds.

Clouds have long been a major uncertainty in climate calculations.  Clouds can shade the earth and thereby provide cooling.  But clouds can also trap heat.  Which effect dominates depends on how reflective the clouds are, how high up they are, and whether it is day or night.  The dynamics of clouds are complicated.

If you fly across the ocean, you will see blankets of low clouds extending for hundreds of miles.  These marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds predominantly cool the Earth.  In fact, they shade roughly a fifth of the oceans and reflect 30-60% of the solar radiation that hits them back into space.

Recent studies indicate that as global temperatures rise, these clouds are likely to become thinner or burn off entirely, leaving more clear skies through which the sun may add another degree Celsius or more to global warming.

The concerns about clouds are part of the larger issue about feedbacks in warming the world.  It has long been clear that the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere would raise global temperature.  But there are amplifying feedback effects.  Melting large areas of snow and ice reduces reflectivity and allows the land and oceans to absorb more heat.  More water vapor entering the atmosphere traps more heat.  And now clouds are another concern.

Overall, these effects are leading to climate models predicting much larger global temperature increases, which is a scary prospect for the world.

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Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

Photo, posted September 10, 2006, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Record Antarctic Temperature | Earth Wise

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It is still early in the year, but extreme weather events are already piling up.  January was the warmest month on record globally and there have been many records shattered in Europe and Asia.  A number of places in Eastern Europe, including parts of Russia, have seen temperatures 12 to 13 degrees above average.

While the warming of the Arctic has been in the news with increasing frequency, the Antarctic is also seeing rising temperatures and is one of the fastest-warming regions in the world. 

On February 6th, Esperanza Base along Antarctica’s Trinity Peninsula measured a temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the highest temperature ever recorded on that continent.   This rather balmy temperature narrowly beat out the previous record of 63.5 degrees, which occurred in March of 2015.

This one-time reading is certainly anomalous, and scientists say it is associated with a ridge of high pressure that was lingering over the region for several days.  Local wind conditions led to additional warming.

However, the conditions leading to record-breaking high temperatures are not one-time anomalous events. Over the past 50 years, temperatures in the Antarctic have surged by an extraordinary 5 degrees in response to the Earth’s rapidly warming climate.  A rise of five degrees in day-to-day weather is no big deal. A five-degree rise in a region’s average temperature is enormous.

About 87% of the glaciers along the west coast of Antarctica’s Trinity Peninsula have retreated over that 50-year period, most of which doing so during just the past 12 years.

Some researchers claim that the new temperature record is an extreme event that doesn’t tell us anything about the changing climate.  Many others are convinced that there will be many more high temperature records to follow.

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Antarctica just hit 65 degrees, its warmest temperature ever recorded

Photo, posted February 24, 2019, courtesy of Mike via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Value Of Abandoned Agricultural Lands | Earth Wise

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It is perhaps surprising to learn that more land is now being abandoned by farming than converted to it. In fact, abandonment of rural lands has become one of the most dramatic planet-wide changes of the modern era, affecting millions of square miles of land.

In part, it is due to rural flight driven by the economic, social, and educational appeal of cities.  It is also a result of climate change and the globalization of the food supply chain.  The global footprint of agriculture has been decreasing over the past twenty years but the global food supply isn’t shrinking.  The lost land has generally been marginal and farming elsewhere has become more productive.

Many researchers see abandoned agricultural lands as a huge opportunity for ecological restoration and strengthening of biodiversity.   Others see these lands as an opportunity for a massive program to plant trees to reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  A recent study published in Science estimated that planting trees on abandoned agricultural lands could remove 25% of the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere.

There are strong criticisms to all of these ideas.  In most cases, the studies don’t incorporate the social context of why these lands are in transition, the potential effects on local populations, whether the lands are publicly or privately owned, and whether lands now suitable for regeneration will remain so as climate change advances.

Current government initiatives on degraded lands typically lack even rudimentary planning.  There are real opportunities presented by the vast amounts of abandoned agricultural lands, but there are many caveats and many issues to confront.  As a society, we have barely begun to even think about what to do.

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Could Abandoned Agricultural Lands Help Save the Planet?

Photo, posted May 9, 2010. courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Solar And Wind Energy And Groundwater

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The use of both solar and wind farms has been expanding all over the country as a way of lowering carbon emissions from the electric power sector.   According to a new study led by Princeton University, these renewable energy sources have another important benefit:  they keep more water in the ground.

The study focused on drought-prone California where both solar and wind power have been expanding dramatically.  California is the largest agricultural producer in the United States and has also experienced one of the most severe droughts on record between 2012 and 2017.

The study determined that increased solar and wind energy can reduce the reliance on hydropower, especially during times of drought. 

The study looked at multiple scenarios in order to determine how much solar and wind energy should be used to maximize economic revenue and to see how solar and wind power could ensure groundwater recovery.  They created a framework to quantify the optimal pathways for maximizing hydroelectricity and agricultural income while avoiding groundwater depletion.

During the long drought, California’s agriculture industry relied heavily on tapping into groundwater stores, which is an unsustainable practice.  With more droughts likely to occur in California as well as increasing water demand from the growing California population, the burden on the state’s groundwater supply will only grow.

According to the researchers, it is far more practical to impose further regulations on groundwater use if sufficient solar and wind power is deployed.   They caution that these resources need to be deployed long before groundwater aquifers are depleted, or it will be too late for them to do any good.

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Solar and Wind Energy Preserve Groundwater for Drought, Agriculture

Photo, posted December 11, 2014, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

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According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

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Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The March Of The Penguins Toward Extinction

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According to a new study from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the warming climate may render emperor penguins extinct by the end of this century.  The study, which was part of an international collaboration between scientists, finds that emperor penguins will likely experience an 86% decline by 2100 if the global climate continues to warm at the current rate.  At that point, it would be very unlikely for them to recover, according to the study’s lead author.       

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and recently published in the journal Global Change Biology.

The fate of emperor penguins is largely tied to the fate of sea ice.  The penguins use sea ice as a place for breeding, feeding, and molting.  They look for very specific conditions of sea ice – it must be locked in to the Antarctic shoreline but also close enough to open seawater to give them access to food. The study predicts that this sea ice will gradually disappear, depriving the birds of their habitat, food sources, and ability to raise their young.     

The researchers combined two existing computer models to study three different climate change scenarios.  If the average global temperature increases by only 1.5 degrees Celsius, the study found that only 5% of sea ice would be lost by 2100, resulting in a 19% drop in penguin colonies.  If the planet warms by 2 degrees Celsius, the sea ice loss nearly triples and more than a third of penguin colonies disappear.  The ‘business as usual’ scenario where the planet continues to warm at the current rate will ensure a near complete loss of emperor penguin colonies by 2100. 

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Unless warming is slowed, emperor penguins will be marching towards extinction

Photo, posted January 15, 2011, courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bad News For The Aletsch Glacier

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The Aletsch Glacier in Switzerland is the largest glacier in the Alps.  Every year, it attracts thousands of visitors from around the world.  The huge ice flow in the Upper Valais region of Switzerland is an Alpine tourist attraction second only to the Matterhorn.  In the summer, meltwater from the glacier is an important water source in the dry Rhone Valley.

As the climate continues to warm, the massive glacier continues to shrink.  The tongue of the glacier has receded by about a kilometer since the year 2000 and scientists predict that this trend will continue over the coming years.

Detailed simulations by researchers at ETH Zurich assessed the future of the Aletsch Glacier under different scenarios related to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the resulting warming.

The best-case scenario in which global warming is limited to less than 2 degrees Celsius would result in the glacier being half the size it is today by the end of the century.  If the global community does not pull together quickly to take effective measures against global warming, Switzerland could warm by as much as 4 to 8 degrees and by 2100, what was once the largest glacier in the Alps will be a couple of measly patches of ice.

To understand how much global warming has already impacted the glacier to date, even if somehow the climate remains the same as it has been for the past 10 years going forward, the ice volume of the Aletsch glacier will still decrease by nearly half its volume by the end of the century.  The glacier is no longer in equilibrium with the climate.

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Gloomy forecast for the Aletsch Glacier

Photo, posted April 7, 2007, courtesy of Jessica Gardner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Upside Of Climate Change

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In contrast with most countries in the world, the main political factions in the United States have very different views of climate change.  Somehow, one side of the aisle remains skeptical about the changing climate even as temperature records are broken, arctic ice disappears, and powerful storms become increasingly common.

But putting aside the increasingly inexplicable political schism about climate change, there are instances where the consequences of the warming climate are not all dire.  In fact, there are places where climate change is having a positive effect.

One such place is West Virginia, where research studies are finding a real upside to the changing climate.

A recent study of the climate in West Virginia over the period from 1900 to 2016 found the maximum temperatures trended downward, average minimum temperatures ascended, and annual precipitation increased.  On average, West Virginians are now seeing cooler summers, warmer winters and wetter weather.

Given these changes, there have been big changes in agriculture.  Yields of important crops like hay, corn, winter wheat, and soybeans have all increased.  The winter season has shrunk by as much as 20 days and the growing season itself has increased by approximately 13 days.  A number of crops that historically did not fare well in West Virginia may now become viable.  It may even be possible to pursue double cropping, meaning that the longer growing season may allow farmers to raise one crop, harvest it, and then raise and harvest a second crop within the same year.

In the big picture, climate change is shaping up as a global calamity, but for a few people in certain places – such as West Virginia – it may have some real upside.

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The positive implications of…climate change? WVU researcher sees agricultural, food availability and economic possibilities

Photo, posted November 12, 2014, courtesy of Mike via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Europe Is Warming Faster Than Predicted

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A new study has found that Europe is warming faster than even climate models projected.  The number of summer days with extreme heat in Europe has tripled since the 1950s, while the number of days with extreme cold has decreased by factors of two or three depending on the region.

According to climate scientists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, the climate trends are much larger than what would come from natural variability and are a clear signal of climate change.  Extremely hot days in Europe have become hotter by an average of more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit while extremely cold days have warmed by more than 5 degrees.  The research examined data from weather stations across Europe from 1950 to 2018.  Over 90% of the stations recorded increasing temperatures over time, a percentage much too high to be purely from natural climate variability.  The results also showed that the region was warming even faster than climate models projected.

The research results come after an extremely hot summer in Europe.  Southern France hit 114.8 degrees, a new record, in June.  Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium all recorded all-time national temperature highs.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently announced that July was the hottest month ever recorded.

European summers and winters will only grow hotter in the coming years as climate change accelerates.  The rapidly increasing temperatures will impact cities and people that are unprepared for them and pose real risks for residents in the coming decades.  Extreme heat is dangerous because it stresses the human body, potentially leading to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

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Europe warming faster than expected due to climate change

Photo, posted July 30, 2011, courtesy of Marcel de Jong via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The ‘Biggest Ever’ Arctic Expedition

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The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth.  In fact, it’s warming at a rate of almost twice the global average.  And, since what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic, the world is already feeling the effects: rising sea levels, changes in climate and precipitation patterns, increasing severe weather events, and so on. 

As a result, researchers from more than a dozen countries have launched the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the Arctic.  They plan to freeze Germany’s largest research vessel, the Polarstern, into Arctic sea ice, where it will remain trapped for twelve months.  The ship will drift with the sea ice as the sea ice drifts.  The vessel will serve as a research laboratory, hosting a rotating crew of 300 scientists.  The ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and even the wildlife will all be sampled.  This year-long journey will give researchers their closest look at how the polar climate and its fragile ecosystems are changing. 

Led by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate project (or MOSAiC) is expected to cost about $150 million. 

One major goal of MOSAiC is to improve strikingly uncertain climate projections for the Arctic.  Climate models disagree on how much more the Arctic will warm as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises and sea ice shrinks.  Some project a 5ºC rise by 2100 relative to the 1986-2005 average.  Others predict a 10ºC increase. 

Understanding the complex processes occurring in the Arctic is essential for projecting the future impacts of climate change. 

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Climate scientists prepare for largest ever Arctic expedition

Climate change: Polarstern leaves for ‘biggest ever’ Arctic expedition

Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Floating Solar Fuel Farms

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Limiting global warming will require a massive reduction in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning.  Renewable energy sources are playing a growing role in the power grid and electric cars are becoming increasingly popular.  Despite all this, carbon-based liquid fuels will continue to dominate our energy use for the foreseeable future.

Researchers in Norway and Switzerland have described a potential scheme that would help remove CO2 from the atmosphere and produce a valuable liquid fuel.

The idea is to create floating islands containing large numbers of solar panels that convert carbon dioxide in seawater into methanol, which can fuel airplanes and trucks.

A combination of largely existing technologies would be the basis of these floating islands, which would be similar to present-day floating fish farms.  The researchers envision clusters each composed of 70 circular solar panels that in total cover an area of roughly half a square mile.  The solar panels would produce electricity, which would split water molecules and isolate hydrogen.  The hydrogen would then react with carbon dioxide pulled from seawater to produce usable methanol.

The technology already exists to build the floating methanol islands on a large scale in areas of the ocean free from large waves and extreme weather.  Suitable locations are off the coasts of South America, North Australia, the Arabian Gulf, and Southeast Asia.

A single floating solar farm could produce more than 15,000 tons of methanol a year – enough to fuel a Boeing 737 airliner for more than 300 round-trip flights across the country.  Floating energy islands would not be a magic bullet for limiting the effects of climate change, but they could well be an important part of an overall strategy.

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Giant Floating Solar Farms Could Make Fuel and Help Solve the Climate Crisis, Says Study

Photo courtesy of PNAS.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The State Of The Climate

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The federal government has issued the annual State of the Climate report and it is a sobering one.  The report states that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to levels the world has not seen in at least 800,000 years.  Global carbon dioxide concentrations reached a record 407.4 parts per million during 2018.  That is 2.4 ppm more than 2017.

Other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide also continued their rapid increase.  Taken together, the global warming power of greenhouse gases was 43% stronger than it was in 1990.

Along with greenhouse gases, global sea levels also reached their highest levels on record for the seventh consecutive year.  Ocean levels are rising about an inch per decade, but that number may rise if ice melt at the poles continues to accelerate.

Global temperatures had their fourth highest level on record in 2018, slightly lagging 2016, 2015, and 2017 for the highest ever.  A La Niña over the Pacific cooled ocean waters for part of 2018, keeping temperatures a bit lower.  So far, 2019 is on track to be the warmest year in recorded history.

Global sea temperatures also set a record level in 2018.  And glaciers continued to melt at an alarming rate for the 30th consecutive year.

The State of the Climate report is yet another in a series of expert, science-based reports that continue to sound the alarm about the climate crisis.  Climate change is affecting our weather, agricultural productivity, water supply, public health and national security.  Unfortunately, the facts continue to be drowned out for many people by blogs, pundits, and posts on social media.

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Greenhouse Gases Reach Unprecedented Level

Photo, posted January 13, 2014, courtesy of Ronnie Robertson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wildfires And Carbon

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This summer has been an unprecedented year for fires in the Arctic.  Major fires have burned throughout the Arctic in Russia, Canada, and Greenland.  In total these fires released 50 million tons of carbon dioxide in June alone, which is as much as Sweden emits in an entire year.

In an average year, wildfires around the world burn an area equivalent to the size of India and emit more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than global road, rail, shipping and air transport combined.

Ordinarily, this is part of a natural cycle.  As vegetation in burned areas regrows, it draws CO2 back out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis.  This is part of the fire-recovery cycle, which can take less than a year in grasslands, but decades in forests.  But in Arctic or tropical peatlands, full recovery may not occur for centuries.

A recent study looked at and quantified the important role that charcoal plays in helping to compensate for carbon emissions from fires.  In wildfires, some of the vegetation is not consumed by burning, but instead is transformed to charcoal – referred to as pyrogenic carbon.   This carbon-rich material can be stored in soils and oceans over very long time periods.

Researchers have combined field studies, satellite data, and modelling to quantify the amount of carbon that is placed in storage in the form of charcoal.  Their results are that the production of pyrogenic carbon amounts to about 12% of the CO2 emissions from fires and can be considered a significant buffer for landscape fire emissions.

Charcoal does not represent a solution to the problem of increasingly intense wildfires, but it is important to take it into account in understanding what is happening.

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How wildfires trap carbon for centuries to millennia

Photo, posted August 17, 2018, courtesy of the Bureau of Land Management Oregon and Washington via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Hottest Month Ever

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European climate researchers announced that July was the hottest July ever recorded and since July is generally the hottest month of the year, it was indeed the hottest month ever recorded.  It just barely beat out the previous record set in July 2016.  There are multiple agencies that track temperatures around the world, and it is possible that some of them may report slightly different results. 

But whatever July’s ultimate ranking is, it is part of a long-term trend.  The past five years have been the hottest on record.   The 10 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred during the past twenty years.

This June was also the warmest on record, and the previous five months were all among the four warmest for their respective months.  All of that puts this year on track to be in the top five warmest years, or perhaps the hottest ever.

The highest above-average conditions were recorded across Alaska, Greenland, and large areas of Siberia.   Large parts of Africa and Australia were warmer than normal, as was much of central Asia.  New temperature records were set in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany with temperatures over 104 degrees Fahrenheit.  Great Britain saw an all-time record of 101.7 degrees and Anchorage, Alaska stayed above 79 degrees for a record six days in a row.

Wildfires have raged across the Russian Arctic, India has suffered heatwaves and severe water shortages, and Japan saw more than 5,000 people seek hospital treatment during a heatwave.

While scientists cannot directly link any particular heatwave to climate change, the trend for new heat records is likely to continue and accelerate unless we do something about curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

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How Hot Was July? Hotter Than Ever, Global Data Shows

Photo, posted May 25, 2019, courtesy of Jakob Montrasio via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Concerns About Dam Safety

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The United States has a total of 91,000 dams of various sizes and types.  Many of them are aging and sorely in need of repairs.  All that maintenance would add up to tens of billions of dollars.  Experts are increasingly worried that as extreme precipitation events become increasingly common, dams are increasingly at risk of failure, threatening lives and posing environmental risks.

In 2017, Oroville Dam in California – the tallest dam in the country – nearly collapsed.  That incident forced the evacuation of 190,000 people and cost the state of California $1.1 billion in repairs.  California is considered one of the nation’s leading states in dam safety management and yet the partial disintegration of Oroville’s two spillways during a heavy rainstorm was not anticipated.

So far, federal and state dam safety officials have not been able to get disinterested state legislatures and the U.S. Congress to fork up the money needed for repairs to the nation’s aging dam infrastructure.

Th American Society of Civil Engineers gave the nation’s dams a D grade on the latest infrastructure report card.  They estimate that the cost of rehabilitating dams whose failure would threaten human life at nearly $45 billion, and the cost of fixing all dams in need of repair at more than $64 billion.

Scientists say the likelihood of dam failures – which not only threaten lives but also release toxic sediments trapped in reservoirs behind many dams – will increase as extreme precipitation events become more frequent in a warming world.  Apart from about 1,500 dams owned by federal agencies, regulating dam safety is primarily the responsibility of the states.  So far, states have not applied remotely sufficient resources to a growing problem.

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In an Era of Extreme Weather, Concerns Grow Over Dam Safety

Photo, posted August 20, 2014, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Energy Demand

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Human beings are utterly dependent upon energy both for our well-being and for societal development.  Our energy use is highly dependent upon climate since so much energy is expended either keeping us warm in winter or cool in summer.  As the climate changes, it is important to understand how energy demand is likely to be affected.

A new study published in Nature Communications by researchers in Austria, Italy and the United States explored this topic.  The study is a global analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.  The purpose was to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios by the year 2050.

The findings indicate that, compared to scenarios in which energy demand is driven only by population and income growth, climate change will increase the global demand for energy by 11-27% by the year 2050 under a modest warming scenario.  With vigorous climate warming, energy demand would increase by 25-58%.  (Large areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China, and the US are likely to experience the highest increases).

These findings are important because if energy use rises and leads to additional emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, it will be increasingly difficult to mitigate future climate warming.  Quantifying this risk provides even more incentive for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before these effects upon demand are realized and it becomes even more difficult to prevent further impacts.

Policymakers need to be aware that even moderate levels of climate change will lead to increases in energy demand that will make it increasingly difficult to minimize the harmful effects on their societies.

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More energy needed to cope with climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2008, courtesy of Matt Hintsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Bottom Line

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Large companies around the world are facing up to the fact that climate change could substantially affect their bottom lines within the next five years.  Shareholders and regulators have been applying pressure to companies to disclose the specific financial impacts they could face as the planet warms and companies are increasingly making those disclosures.

A non-profit charity called CDP (formerly known as the Carbon Disclosure Project) runs the global disclosure system for investors, companies, cities, states, and regions to manage their environmental impacts.  In 2018, more than 7,000 companies submitted reports to CDP and, for the first time, CDP explicitly asked firms to try to calculate how a warming planet might affect them financially.

Analysis of the reports from 215 of the world’s 500 largest corporations revealed that these companies alone potentially faced roughly $1 trillion in costs related to climate change in the decades ahead unless they took proactive steps to prepare. 

Climate-related risks range from extreme weather that could disrupt supply chains to stricter climate regulations that could hurt the value of coal, oil, and gas investments.  Technology companies like Google’s parent company, Alphabet, Inc., face increased costs to cool energy-hungry data centers as temperatures rise.

In all, the world’s largest companies estimated that at least $250 billion of assets may need to be written off or retired early as the planet heats up.  Previous studies, based on computer climate modeling, have estimated that the risks of global warming, if left unmanaged, could cost the world’s financial sector between $1.7 trillion to $24.2 trillion in net present value terms.

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Companies See Climate Change Hitting Their Bottom Lines in the Next 5 Years

Photo, posted February 29, 2016, courtesy of Ben Nuttall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Desalination On The Rise

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Desalination has been regarded for decades as a solution for providing fresh water to places where it is scarce.  With drought becoming more common around the world – sometimes even in places where water supplies were thought to be ample – there is increasing pressure to bring new desalination plants online.

San Diego gets only 12 inches of rain a year and has no groundwater.  It gets half its water from the distant Colorado River, and that source is becoming increasingly unreliable.  Thus, it is no surprise that America’s largest desalination plant is in Carlsbad, about 30 miles north of San Diego.  That plant provides about 10% of the fresh water needs of the region’s 3.1 million people.

There are 11 desalination plants in California, and 10 more are proposed. Desalination is huge in Saudi Arabia, Australia and Israel.  Globally, more than 300 million people get their water from desalination.

But there are problems.  Desalination is expensive and energy-intensive.  If the process is powered by fossil fuels, it contributes to global warming.  There are ecological impacts as well since it takes two gallons of sea water to make a gallon of fresh water, and the gallon left behind is extremely briny and potentially harmful to dump back into the sea.  The intake systems of desalination plants are also harmful to fish and other aquatic creatures.

The cost of desalination has dropped by more than half over the last 30 years but water from it still costs about twice as much as that from other main sources.  The technology is getting better and cheaper, but the industry must confront and solve serious environmental and economic problems in order for desalination to be able to meet the needs of an increasingly thirsty world.

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As Water Scarcity Increases, Desalination Plants Are on the Rise

Photo, posted January 12, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Why Choose Chicken Over Beef?

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Food production is a major driver of climate change.  It’s responsible for more than a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions.  But the environmental impact of different foods varies greatly, and making seemingly insignificant changes can actually have significant impacts. 

According to a first-ever national study of U.S. eating habits and their carbon footprints, choosing chicken over beef will cut your dietary carbon footprint in half.

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey asked more than 16,000 participating Americans to name all the foods they consumed in the past 24 hours. The research team then calculated the carbon footprint of what people said they ate.  If a respondent consumed broiled beef steak, for example, researchers calculated what the carbon footprint would have been had broiled chicken been consumed instead.   

The study’s findings illustrate how making one simple substitution can significantly reduce a person’s dietary carbon footprint.  A diet’s carbon footprint is the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that result from the energy, fertilizer, land use, and other inputs necessary to produce food.

In general, animal-based foods have a bigger carbon footprint than plant-based foods.  For example, producing beef uses 20 times the land and emits 20 times the emissions as growing beans (per gram of protein), and requires 10 times more resources than producing chicken. 

According to the World Resources Institute, keeping the increase in global warming below 2°C will be impossible without limiting the global rise in meat consumption. 

Last year, the EAT-Lancet Commission report found that a radical transformation of the global food system was needed because it’s threatening the stability of the climate. 

Make a change – big or small – today. 

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Choosing chicken over beef cuts our carbon footprints a surprising amount

Photo, posted August 30, 2011, courtesy of Ken Hawkins via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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