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Another Hot November

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This past fall saw yet more of the high temperatures the world has been experiencing in recent times.  Both the season (September through November) and the year to date were the second hottest in recorded history.  November itself was the second-hottest November in the 140-year global climate record.

The high temperatures were felt at both ends of the world.  Sea ice coverage across both the Arctic and Antarctic oceans fell to near-record lows in November.  Arctic sea ice coverage was nearly 13% below the 1981-2010 average, while Antarctic coverage was 6.35% below average.

The average global land and ocean surface temperature for November was 1.66 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.  The year-to-date global temperature was 1.69 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.  These numbers correspond to almost a 1-degree Celsius increase, which should be compared with the Paris Climate Accord goal of keeping that increase to no more than 1.5 degrees.

November was the hottest November on record for South America, Africa, and the Hawaiian Islands.  The Caribbean had its second-hottest November, and Europe had its seventh hottest on record.

The world’s average sea surface temperature ranked second warmest for the year to date and was only 0.05 degrees cooler than the all-time record.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues monthly global climate reports and for quite some time, these reports seem to all be the same.  Another new record for heat or at least another near record.  We have to expect that this trend will continue at least until the world starts making progress in dealing with its root cause.

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November 2019 was 2nd hottest on record for the planet

Photo, posted July 20, 2016, courtesy of Salehin Chowdhury via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Meeting Climate Goals With Current Energy Infrastructure

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The Paris Climate Agreement set forth a goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius as well as a more optimistic (and preferable) goal of keeping the temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees.  Reaching either of these goals requires getting to net-zero emissions by the middle of the century.

A new paper, published in Nature, looks at the issue of whether existing power plants and other fossil-fuel-burning equipment (including vehicles) can continue to operate until they age out of functionality, or whether they need to be retired early.

The results of the study are that future emissions from existing facilities would take up the entire carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and almost 2/3 of the budget needed to keep warming below 2 degrees over the next 30 years.

So, the good news is that we can still avoid a 2-degree rise without having to shut down all the existing power plants early.  But we would definitely have to stop building new things with smokestacks and tailpipes that dump CO2 into the atmosphere. 

That good news is tempered by the fact that the number of fossil fuel-burning power plants and vehicles in the world has increased dramatically over the past decade, spurred by rapid economic and industrial development in China and India.  In fact, China is predicted to produce more than 40% of all the carbon emissions over the next 30 years.

The 2-degree climate goal is not at all the most desirable result.  The 1.5-degree target would be far better for the climate.  But if the world is to achieve it, there will be dramatic changes needed in the existing infrastructure – either shutting it down or retrofitting it to drastically reduce emissions.

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Two-Degree Climate Goal Attainable Without Early Infrastructure Retirement

Photo, posted March 5, 2010, courtesy of Tennessee Valley Authority via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Natural Climate Solutions Are Not Enough

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A new policy perspective published in Science by researchers at seven prestigious institutions looked at the role of natural science solutions in stabilizing the Earth’s climate for people and ecosystems.   While they asserted that it is imperative to ramp up natural climate solutions, they also concluded that natural solutions alone will not be sufficient.

Natural science solutions include such things as enhancing carbon sinks from forests, agriculture and other lands.  Doing these things are very beneficial in their own right as they lead to improved forests, croplands, grazing lands, and wetlands.

However, these things will not be enough to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and must be combined with rapid efforts to decrease emissions from the energy and industrial sectors.  Among their various findings, the researchers warn that a ten-year delay in emissions reductions from these sectors could completely negate any potential benefits of natural climate solutions.

As has become increasingly clear, there is not an either-or situation with regard to the actions that need to be taken with respect to climate change.

Maximizing natural climate solutions and reducing emissions from the energy and industrial sectors will provide broad benefits beyond climate change mitigation.  Doing these things will improve forests and habitats, reduce the risk of wildfires, and decrease air and water pollution thereby improving human health and well-being.

Of course, to reduce cumulative emissions and put a cap on the warming of the planet, there will need to be policy mechanisms and incentives in place that support both natural climate solutions and increasing mitigation efforts across the energy and industrial sectors.

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Natural Climate Solutions Are Not Enough

Photo, posted February 11, 2012, courtesy of Joao Andre O. Dias via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bursting The Carbon Bubble

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One way or another, the fossil fuel industry seems to be destined to shrink away.  A combination of technological advances and climate policies are going to drastically reduce the global demand for fossil fuels over the course of time.   New research shows that the demise of the fossil fuel industry will have profound consequences.

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Trouble With China And Climate Progress

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With the United States backing away from the Paris climate agreement and with Europe taking a less active role in climate negotiations, China has become the bellwether on global climate change.  Recent climate negotiations in Bonn, Germany were rather acrimonious as countries accused other countries of not doing their part or keeping their promises.

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Geoengineering And Developing Countries

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There are some mind-boggling schemes being discussed to mitigate the global warming caused by greenhouse gases.  These include placing giant mirrors in orbit to reflect sunlight before it reaches Earth and launching millions of tons of sulfur into the stratosphere to simulate the effects of a major volcanic eruption.

[Read more…] about Geoengineering And Developing Countries

Natural Climate Solutions

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The Paris Climate Agreement embodies a commitment to hold the increase in the global average temperature to less than 2 Celsius degrees above preindustrial levels.  Most strategies to achieve this goal involve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels as well as various land use activities.  But there are also so-called Natural Climate Solutions, which relate to the storage of carbon and reduction in carbon emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands.

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Hopeful Climate Trends

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In November, Syria joined the Paris Climate Accord.  As a result, the United States is now the only country in the world that has rejected the global pact.  Despite this embarrassing news, there is reason for optimism in the effort to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.  In particular, 7 major trends provide hope that things could move in the right direction.

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A Record Drop In Coal Consumption

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Global consumption of coal dropped by 1.7% last year.  This is a major change considering that it had increased by an average of 1.9% per year from 2005 to 2015.   China, which accounts for about half of the coal burned in the world, used 1.6% less in 2016, as compared to an increase of 3.7% per year over the previous 11 years.

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Exporting Emissions

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The Paris Climate Agreement seeks to reduce global carbon emissions.  The nearly 200 countries who signed it have pledged to reduce their own emissions within their borders.  And therein lies the rub:  the agreement says nothing about the impact their products have across the world.   For some countries, the problem is not so much the emissions they produce; it is those they export.

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American Cities Fighting Climate Change

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The federal government now appears to be headed down the path of not honoring America’s commitments to tackle global warming, but many of the country’s cities and states as well as its corporations have no intention of breaking our promises to the world.

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Bleached And Dying

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Climate change is posing a major threat to the future of coral reefs.  According to a recent United Nations-backed study, if swift action is not taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions, annual coral bleaching events will affect nearly all of the world’s coral reefs.  And coral bleaching can result in serious coral mortality – as Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has recently illustrated.  

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The Trouble With Burning Forests

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President Obama has set 2030 as the target for reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions to comply with the Paris Climate accord. Unfortunately, the Senate’s new Energy Bill would allow states to count wood as a “carbon neutral” fuel when drawing up plans to comply with the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.

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