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Climate Change And Nutrients

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Ending hunger isn’t a question of producing enough food.  Globally, enough food is produced to feed all 7.7 billion people on the planet.  But despite this, approximately 1 in 9 people go hungry.  Conflict, natural disasters, and extreme poverty are some of the main drivers of global hunger. 

Climate change is another.  The more frequent and intense extreme weather events increase food insecurity and malnutrition by destroying land, livestock, crops, and food supplies.  Climate change makes growing crops harder every year, especially for those who lack the tools and technology to adapt. 

But the challenge of reducing hunger and malnutrition is to not only produce foods that provide enough calories, but to also produce foods that make enough necessary nutrients widely available.  According to new research, climate change is projected to significantly reduce the availability of critical nutrients such as protein, iron, and zinc over the next 30 years.  The total impact of climate change could reduce global per capita nutrient availability of protein, iron, and zinc by 19.5%, 14.4%, and 14.6%, respectively.

While higher levels of carbon dioxide can boost growth in plants, wheat, rice, corn, barley, potatoes, soybeans, and vegetables are all projected to suffer nutrient losses of about 3% on average by 2050 due to the elevated CO2 levels.

The study, which was co-authored by an international group of researchers and published in the peer-reviewed journal, Lancet Planetary Health, represents the most comprehensive synthesis of the impacts of climate change on the availability of nutrients in the global food supply to date. 

Climate change is complicating the quest to end global hunger and malnutrition. 

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Rising CO2, climate change projected to reduce availability of nutrients worldwide

Photo, posted April 30, 2015, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Desalination On The Rise

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Desalination has been regarded for decades as a solution for providing fresh water to places where it is scarce.  With drought becoming more common around the world – sometimes even in places where water supplies were thought to be ample – there is increasing pressure to bring new desalination plants online.

San Diego gets only 12 inches of rain a year and has no groundwater.  It gets half its water from the distant Colorado River, and that source is becoming increasingly unreliable.  Thus, it is no surprise that America’s largest desalination plant is in Carlsbad, about 30 miles north of San Diego.  That plant provides about 10% of the fresh water needs of the region’s 3.1 million people.

There are 11 desalination plants in California, and 10 more are proposed. Desalination is huge in Saudi Arabia, Australia and Israel.  Globally, more than 300 million people get their water from desalination.

But there are problems.  Desalination is expensive and energy-intensive.  If the process is powered by fossil fuels, it contributes to global warming.  There are ecological impacts as well since it takes two gallons of sea water to make a gallon of fresh water, and the gallon left behind is extremely briny and potentially harmful to dump back into the sea.  The intake systems of desalination plants are also harmful to fish and other aquatic creatures.

The cost of desalination has dropped by more than half over the last 30 years but water from it still costs about twice as much as that from other main sources.  The technology is getting better and cheaper, but the industry must confront and solve serious environmental and economic problems in order for desalination to be able to meet the needs of an increasingly thirsty world.

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As Water Scarcity Increases, Desalination Plants Are on the Rise

Photo, posted January 12, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Rainy May

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If it seemed like May was unusually rainy, that’s because it was.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, May 2019 was the second-wettest month on record in the U.S. and contributed to a record-setting wet 12-month period.

The average precipitation for May was 4.41 inches, which is 1.5 inches above normal.  The wettest month in 125 years of record keeping was May 2015, which averaged just 0.03 inches more than this past May.

The period from June 2018 through May 2019 saw the wettest 12-month period on record in the U.S. with 37.68 inches, nearly 8 inches above average.  Increases in heavy rain events are among the most anticipated and well-documented impacts from climate change.

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During May, the stormy pattern led to widespread flooding in the nation’s heartland.  In North Carolina, early-season extreme heat and a rapidly-developing drought was replaced by intense rainfall and flooding.

With all the clouds and rain around, the average May temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 59.5 degrees, which ranked in the bottom third of the 125-year record.

Extreme and unusual weather is becoming commonplace as the climate changes.  Duluth, Minnesota had 10.6 inches of snow on May 9, breaking an all-time record for May.  Denver had its snowiest May in 77 years.  But while the U.S. experienced somewhat cooler weather than usual, the planet as a whole continues to warm.  April 2019 was the second hottest April on record, dating back to 1880.  The Arctic region saw a record low for sea ice. 

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Rain-soaked U.S. had its 2nd-wettest month on record in May

Photo, posted May 20, 2013, courtesy of Flickr.

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Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Insurance

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While there are still some people who remain dubious about the reality of climate change, insurance companies are not among them.  And, in fact, insurers are warning that climate change could make coverage for ordinary people unaffordable.

Munich Reinsurance, the world’s largest reinsurance firm, blamed global warming for $24 billion in losses from California’s recent wildfires.  Such costs could soon be widely felt as premium rises are already under discussion with insurance companies having clients in vulnerable parts of the state.

With the risk from wildfires, flooding, storms and hail increasing, the only sustainable option for the insurance industry is to adjust risk prices accordingly.  Ultimately, this may become a social issue.  Affordability of insurance is critical because if rates go up too much, many people on low and average incomes in some regions may no longer be able to buy insurance.

The great majority of California’s 20 worst forest fires since the 1930’s has occurred since the year 2000 driven by abnormally high summer temperatures and persistent drought. The reinsurance giant analyzed decades of data with climate models and concluded that the fires are likely driven by climate change.

It isn’t just wildfires.  Insurance premiums are also being adjusted in regions facing an increased threat from severe convective storms whose energy and severity are driven by global warming.  These include parts of Germany, Austria, France, southwest Italy, and the U.S. Midwest.

Linking extreme weather events to climate change is a bit like attributing the performance of a steroid-using athlete to drug use.  The connections are clearer in patterns than in individual disasters.  But the pattern these days is pretty clear.

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Climate Change Could Make Insurance Unaffordable for Most People

Photo, posted June 12, 2013, courtesy of Jeff Head via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

California Fires And Precipitation

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Two things we have heard a lot about in recent years have been the persistent drought in California and the terrible wildfires the state has experienced.  Along the way, the state has had some pretty wet and snowy winters.  This past winter, the California snow pack has seen incredible levels building up, which is great news for the state’s farmers.  But does that also mean that the next year should see some relief from severe wildfires?

The answer appears to be no.  A new study from an international team that includes the University of Arizona has comprehensively looked at the amount of winter precipitation in California and the severity of the subsequent wildfire season. 

The position of the North Pacific jetstream over California is strongly linked to the amount of winter precipitation.  This has been true for hundreds of years and continues to be the case.

From 1600 to 1903, the linkage between winter precipitation and wildfire severity was also very strong.  But after 1904, that connection weakened.  As a result, fire suppression policies were instituted.  When fires arose, they were put out as quickly as possible.  The result over time is fuel buildup, making larger fires far more likely.

According to the new study, after 1977, the connection between winter precipitation and wildfire severity disappeared entirely.  There no longer appears to be any relationship between jet stream dynamics and fire.  The warming climate and the results of fire suppression dominate the potential for wildfire.  California’s wet winter of 2016-2017 provides a good example.  That winter was followed by many large fires in 2017.

So, this very wet winter in California does not imply that this should be a year without severe wildfires.

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Wildfire Risk in California No Longer Coupled to Winter Precipitation

Photo, posted July 26, 2018, courtesy of Bureau of Land Management California via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Trouble On The Colorado

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The 1450-mile-long Colorado River begins in the Rocky Mountains and wends its way to the Gulf of California, creating the Grand Canyon along the way, and providing water to some 40 million people.  The amount of Colorado River water promised to users is far more than actually flows between its banks, and that amount is dropping.

An unrelenting drought since 2000 has resulted in the water levels of the two largest reservoirs of Colorado River water – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – being at all-time lows.

Lake Mead, just outside of Las Vegas, is the reservoir of Hoover Dam, which provides power for millions of people in Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona.  The last time Lake Mead was full was in 1983.  It has slowly declined and now is 40% full.

If the lake level drops another 7 feet to 1075 feet above sea level, it will trigger a Tier 1 declaration, mandating cuts to water allocations to Arizona and other states.  If the level drops to 1050 feet, it would reach Tier 2 at which point Hoover Dam would have to stop generating electricity because water levels would be too low to flow through it.  If the lake level drops all the way to 895 feet, it would be below the level at which water can be piped out of it.  This is known as the “dead pool”.

These scenarios are no longer doomsday fantasies.  Water managers in the Southwest see the writing on the wall and are busy making contingency plans and developing ways to use less water from the Colorado River.  The booming city of Phoenix in particular is hard at work finding alternative ways to provide water for its millions of citizens.  On the Colorado, drought in the new normal.

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On the Water-Starved Colorado River, Drought Is the New Normal

Photo, posted October 24, 2016, courtesy of Sharon Mollerus via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

2018 Was A Wet Year

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Recent news reports noted that 2018 was the fourth hottest year on record.  But the changing climate is not just about temperature.  2018 was also the third-wettest year since 1895, when steady record-keeping began.

Overall, the U.S. recorded 4.68 inches more precipitation in 2018 than the 20th century average.  But all that rain and snow was nothing like evenly distributed.  The eastern half of the country – especially in places like North Carolina and Virginia – saw record amounts of precipitation, while most of the West remained stuck in drought.

The warming climate leads to precipitation extremes at both ends, meaning that wet places are likely to get wetter and dry places drier.  There has been a marked upward trend in short-duration extreme events.   For example, Cyclone Mekunu dumped almost 13 inches of rain on Salalah, Oman in 36 hours, more than double its annual average rainfall.

In the southeast and eastern U.S., the trend toward stronger storm events is mostly driven by strong warming of the oceans that fringe their shores.  Warm oceans evaporate more water into the air and warm air holds more water than cooler air.  Warmer, moisture-laden air acts like a blanket over the land, keeping heat trapped near the ground.  Many of the states that had their wettest-ever years also set records for high minimum temperatures – their coldest temperatures were less cold than in the past.

Air temperatures are projected to warm up even further in the coming years and, as a result, many scientists are anticipating that extreme precipitation events will only get more extreme.  The pattern of drought in the west and wetness in the east is likely to stay.

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2018 was the U.S.’s third-wettest year on record—here’s why

Photo, posted August 18, 2018, courtesy of Jim Lukach via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Disastrous Year

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The number and economic impact of natural disasters around the world have increased dramatically over the past 30 years.  In dollar terms, the amount has actually more than doubled.  While 2017 and especially 2011 hold the records for worldwide economic damage, 2018 was pretty disastrous in its own right, totaling at least $160 billion.

The year was dominated by costly wildfires in California and tropical storms in the United States and Asia.   According to a recent report by the reinsurance company Munich Re, the Camp and Woolsey fires in California alone caused losses of $21.7 billion, $16.5 billion of which was insured.

Overall, insurance companies paid out $80 billion in damage claims from natural disasters last year.  This was less than the $140 billion in 2017 but is still double the 30-year average.

Losses from wildfires have increased dramatically in recent years and summers continue to get hotter and dryer, a likely consequence of climate change.  These mounting costs bring into question whether people can continue to build in high-risk wildfire areas without dramatic changes in materials and the aggressive use of other protective measures.

Twenty-nine natural disaster events in 2018 caused more than a billion dollars in damage each.  Tropical storms including hurricanes Michael and Florence in the United States and three Asian typhoons caused $57 billion in damage.

A severe drought in Europe that set off major wildfires and caused agricultural losses caused $3.9 billion in losses.  Only about $280 million of this damage was covered by insurance companies since farmers in Europe don’t typically purchase insurance against drought.  For them, 2018 was truly a disastrous year.

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Natural Disasters Caused $160 Billion in Damage in 2018

Photo, posted July 26, 2018, courtesy of Bureau of Land Management California via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saved By The Trees

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The island of Kokota, part of the Zanzibar Archipelago off the coast of Tanzania, is tiny – only one square kilometer and home to just 500 people.  For centuries, its residents subsisted by harvesting the islet’s natural resources, including its trees.

By the early 21st century, the deforestation had become unsustainable and the islanders faced a crisis.  Fisheries were depleted, and rivers ran dry.  The changing climate brought rising sea levels, more erratic rainfall, and coral bleaching in the surrounding waters.  The situation looked hopeless.

But in recent years, the island has come back from the brink of ruin.  Reforestation efforts began in 2008 on the larger island of Pemba and on Kokota itself, led by a Pemba local and a Canadian tree planter who formed the non-profit Community Forests International.  Since then, nearly 2 million trees have been planted on the two islands.  Enthusiastic volunteers on Kokota usually help plant trees during the rainy season, when water is plentiful.

Community Forests International, along with spearheading the tree planting effort, also built Kokota’s first school, and installed rainwater storage tanks for the community.

The conservation group is now devising ways for Kokota to make more money by diversifying its agriculture with crops that grow well in its climate including spices like cloves, cinnamon, and nutmeg.  They are also helping locals to grow more and different vegetables in their gardens.

Small, poor communities are often the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as drought, powerful storms, and depleted fisheries.  Tiny Kokota provides an example of an environmental comeback.  Fighting climate change requires economic solutions along with environmental solutions.  For this one tiny island, it  appears to have been saved by the trees.

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This island was on the brink of disaster. Then, they planted thousands of trees.

Photo, posted July 18, 2015, courtesy of Marco Zanferrari via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Speed Breeding Of Crops

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A technique pioneered by NASA for the purpose of growing plants extra-terrestrially is now being applied here on earth to fast-track improvements in a range of crops.  The technique, known as speed breeding, has been adapted for use by British and Australian researchers on a scale ranging from vast greenhouses to desktop growth chambers.

Speed breeding uses enhanced LED lighting and day-long regimes of up to 22 hours to optimize photosynthesis and promote rapid growth of crops.  By speeding up the breeding cycle of plants,it is possible, for example, to grow six generations of wheat in a year compared with two generations using traditional breeding methods.

With shortened breeding cycles, genetic improvements such as yield gain, disease resistance and climate resistance can be fast-tracked in crops such as wheat, barley, chickpeas, various Brassica species, oil seed rape and peas.

The ability to do this in compact desktop chambers permits cutting-edge research to be performed inexpensively before being scaled up to large greenhouses.

Crop development is an increasingly important activity and speed breeding is increasingly attractive in light of the opposition in some quarters to modern gene-editing techniques to create GMO crops.  Speed breeding allows crop improvements via anon-GMO route.

The new technique is already being applied in Australia, which is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record.  It is being used to rapidly cycle genetic improvements to make crops more drought resilient.

Generation time in most plant species is a major bottleneck in applied research programs and breeding.  Speed breeding can greatly reduce this bottleneck, allowing scientists to respond more quickly to emerging diseases, the changing climate and increased demand for specific plant traits.

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JIC joins European scientists to safeguard precision breeding

Photo, posted May 8, 2016, courtesy of Yair Aronshtam via Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Greenhouses Adapt To Climate Change

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The Telangana region of India has struggled with extreme weather patterns attributed to climate change.  Extended periods of drought, heatwaves, and unpredictable heavy rainfalls have led to crop failures, mounting debt, and a heavy human toll.  More than 3,000 farmers committed suicide in Telangana during a three-year drought.

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Traffic Jams In The Jet Stream

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Many extreme weather events are associated with unusual behavior by the jet stream.   Jet streams are the global air currents that circle the earth.  The meandering and speed changes in the jet stream affect weather and also play a big role in how long it takes aircraft to make their way across the country.  The behavior that leads to extreme weather events is known as “blocking” in which the meandering jet stream stops weather systems from moving eastward.

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Cold Weather In A Warming Climate

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The climate is warming.  The average global temperature is going up year after year, bringing about significant changes to weather around the world.  But the fact is that these changes don’t always lead to warmer weather.  And ordinary variations in local weather can also go in either direction.

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FEMA And Climate Change

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In 2017, the United States spent a record $306 billion on weather and climate-related disasters, making it the costliest and most damaging year on record. The wildfires out west, Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Harvey, the Minnesota hailstorm, and the midwest drought are just some of the costly examples.  Officials say that already-bloated figure will increase further in the coming years as temperatures rise.

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Climate Change Threatens the U.S. Military

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According to a new study from the Pentagon, nearly half of United States military sites are threatened by wild weather linked to climate change.  The U.S. Department of Defense states that drought, wind, and flooding that occur due to reasons other than storms topped the list of natural disasters that endanger 1,700 military sites around the world – everything from outposts to large bases.

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Climate Change And Hawaii

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The Hawaiian Islands are an archipelago of eight major islands, several atolls, numerous smaller islets, and seamounts in the North Pacific Ocean.  The islands are a world-renowned vacation spot, known for their white-sand beaches, lush flora, and near perfect weather.  But stormier days may be ahead. 

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WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)