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A Historic Western Drought | Earth Wise

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The American Southwest has suffered from drought conditions since the year 2000.  The drought has reduced water supplies, devastated farmers and ranchers, and it has helped to fuel numerous wildfires across the region.  It has generally been considered to be worst in 500 years.

According to a recent analysis, the drought has become so severe that it has actually led to the driest two decades in at least 1,200 years and the changing climate is largely responsible.  The summer of 2021 was especially dry; about 2/3 of the West was in severe drought conditions.

Scientists at UCLA used tree ring data to gauge drought.  Based on that analysis, 2000-2021 is the driest 22-year period since 800 A.D. which is as far back as the data goes.

The study confirmed the role of temperature, more than precipitation, in driving exceptional droughts.  Precipitation levels can go up and down over time and can vary in different regions.  But the ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are causing temperatures to generally rise over time.  Warmer temperatures make the air more capable of pulling water out of the soil, out of vegetation, out of crops, and out of forests.  All of that makes drought conditions more severe.

A megadrought is generally considered to be one that is both severe and long.  But even during one, there can be wet years.  2005 was a notable one.  But there must be enough consecutive wet years to actually end a drought.

Several previous megadroughts over the past 1,200 years lasted as long as 30 years.  So, the current drought is in full swing and may go on for a long time to come.

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How Bad Is the Western Drought? Worst in 12 Centuries, Study Finds.

Photo, posted September 25, 2021, courtesy of David Sierralupe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Healthy Soil Is Healthy For People | Earth Wise

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A new study by researchers at the University of Washington looked at the impact of regenerative farming practices on the nutritional content of the food that is grown. 

Regenerative agriculture involves farming practices that not only “do not harm” to the land but actually improve it by regenerating and revitalizing the soil.  The practices focus on topsoil regeneration, increasing biodiversity, improving the water cycle, and enhancing ecosystem services.  Examples are soil-building techniques that minimize plowing, the use of cover crops, and the planting of diverse crops rather than monocultures.

The study included 10 farms across the U.S. that followed soil-friendly practices for at least five years. The results were that the crops from those farms had a healthier nutritional profile than the same crops grown on neighboring, conventional farms.  In particular, there was a boost in certain minerals, vitamins and phytochemicals that are beneficial to human health.  Across the board, regenerative practices resulted in crops with more anti-inflammatory compounds and antioxidants.

The participating farms grew one acre of a test crop – peas, sorghum, corn, or soybeans – for comparison with the same crop grown on a neighboring farm using conventional agriculture.  Analysis showed that the farms practicing regenerative agriculture had healthier soils, as measured by their organic matter – or carbon – content and by other tests. 

Organic farms avoid chemical pesticides, but they operate with a variety of farming processes.  Nonetheless, they have also been found to produce crops with higher levels of beneficial nutrients.  The biology of the soil in which crops are grown is an important factor for human health.  It isn’t just what we eat that matters; it is how we grow it.

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Farms following soil-friendly practices grow healthier food, study suggests

Photo, posted January 10, 2020, courtesy of Les via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Hunt For Marine Plastic | Earth Wise

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Estimates are that about 10 million tons of plastic enter the ocean every year.  This is equivalent to a truckload of plastic being dumped into the sea every minute and the stuff is not easy to keep track of.  Some of it ends up in the  infamous ocean garbage patches.  But overall, researchers only know what happens to about 1% of it.

The European Space Agency has decided to find out whether it might be possible to detect and track floating plastic in the oceans using satellite monitoring.  Researchers have a variety of ideas about how best to do this and now the agency is testing some of those ideas.

The ESA maintains something called the Atlantic Basin Facility which is a 7000 square-foot tank equipped to simulate various types of waves and tidal currents.  It is the largest facility of its kind in the world.

Researchers place plastic in the basin consisting of typical items found at sea, such as bags, bottles, marine nets and ropes, plastic cutlery, and Styrofoam balls.  The plastic used in the study included material previously recovered from the sea through ocean cleanup campaigns.  Multiple research groups from European universities used specialized instrumentation to monitor the basin from above.  Techniques included radar remote sensing, something called GNSS reflectometry, and specialized optical instrumentation.

Initial results look promising in that under some circumstances teams received useable signals.  It will take further analysis to determine the ultimate utility of space-based monitoring of plastic entering the ocean.  Marine litter is a large and growing problem.  Figuring out where it all is and where it is going is a necessary part of any solution.

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Hunting for marine plastic

Photo, posted March 24, 2017, courtesy of Holly Richards/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Takeout Food And Ocean Litter | Earth Wise

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The Covid-19 pandemic saw most of us making use of take-out or delivery services as our only access to restaurant food.  It was a valuable link to normal life.  But unfortunately, the packaging of takeout food is a major contributor to the global plastic waste problem that isn’t going to disappear just because people are returning to eating in restaurants.

A new analysis of more than 12 million items by UK researchers published in the journal Nature Sustainability has found that the majority of ocean litter collected around the world is in the form of takeout food items:  bags, wrappers, containers, straws and cutlery, aluminum cans, and plastic and glass bottles.  Eighty percent of all the items surveyed were made of plastic.

Wrappers and packaging tended to concentrate along coasts, gathering on the shore and the sea floor.  Takeout trash was rarer in the open ocean.  In those areas, fishing debris accounted for half of the litter.

The authors of the study argue that efforts to curb plastic waste should prioritize takeout food and beverage containers.  They recommend that avoidable takeout items, like single-use plastic bags, should be replaced with non-plastic and biodegradable materials.  The authors also recommended making plastic producers responsible for the collection and disposal of plastic products.

As of July 1, the European Union has banned the 10 most common plastic and Stryofoam products found on European beaches.  The EU is also establishing an active European market for recycled plastics based on the principles of extended producer responsibility.

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Takeout Food and Drink Containers Account for Bulk of Ocean Litter

Photo, posted September 14, 2009, courtesy of Susan White/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Have We Reached Peak Internal Combustion Engine? | Earth Wise

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According to new analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sales of gas-powered cars may well have peaked in 2017, representing a significant milestone in the transition to electric vehicles.

Demand for gas cars dropped in 2018 and 2019, and then plummeted in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.  While sales are surely picking up as the pandemic ebbs, the increasing demand (and supply as well) for plug-in vehicles is likely to put gas-powered cars in a state of permanent decline.

Global EV sales are projected to go from 3.1 million last year to 14 million in 2025.  The growth is being driven by falling battery prices, government policies, and increasing choices of vehicles.  Virtually all automobile manufacturers are introducing electric vehicles over the next couple of years and increasing numbers of them are planning a complete transition to EVs in the near future.  Projections are that EVs will account for the majority of new car sales by 2035.

While all this progress is encouraging, there are still over a billion gas- and diesel-powered cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly.  The current average operating life of cars here in the US is 12 years.

To reach the net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050 as many governments have mandated, additional policies and regulations will be needed.  For example, electric cars will need to account for essentially all new sales by 2035, not just the majority.  Reaching net-zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, including trucks and heavy commercial vehicles that have barely started to become electrified.

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New Analysis Suggests We Have Already Hit Peak Internal Combustion Engine

Photo, posted December 23, 2017, courtesy of Davide Gambino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Turning Atmospheric Carbon Into Useful Materials | Earth Wise

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Plants have the ability to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and incorporate it into leaves, fruits, wood, and other plant materials.  This beneficial process is mostly temporary, as much of this carbon dioxide from plant matter ends up back in the atmosphere through decomposition, or even burning.

Researchers at the Salk Institute have proposed a more permanent fate for captured carbon by turning plant matter into a valuable industrial material called silicon carbide.

In a recent study published in the journal RSC Advances, Salk scientists transformed tobacco and corn husks into silicon carbide and evaluated and quantified the benefits of the process.

The researchers used a previously reported method to transform plant matter into silicon carbide in three stages and carefully tracked the carbon utilization at each stage.

Stage one is growing the plants.  They used tobacco from seed, chosen for its short growing season.  Then the harvested plants are frozen, ground into a powder, and treated with chemicals including a silicon-containing compound.  Finally, the powder is subjected to a high-temperature process resulting in the production of silicon carbide.

Their analysis showed that much of the carbon sequestered by growing the plants could be preserved through the full process and the amount of energy required for the production of the silicon carbide (mostly from the high-temperature process) is comparable to current manufacturing processes for the material.

Permanently sequestering carbon from agricultural waste products by incorporating it into a valuable industrial material would be a valuable addition to strategies for reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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Transforming Atmospheric Carbon Into Industrially Useful Materials

Photo, posted August 3, 2013, courtesy of AJ Garrison via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Surviving Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The sixth mass extinction of wildlife on Earth is happening now.  According to an analysis published last year in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, more than 500 species of land animals are on the brink of extinction and are likely to be lost within the next 20 years. Without the impact of humans, this quantity of extinctions would have taken thousands of years. 

Anthropogenic climate change continues to exacerbate problems that drive species to the brink.  Which species will be able to adapt and survive?

Using genome sequencing, a research team from McGill University in Montreal has found that some fish, like the threespine stickleback, can adapt very rapidly to extreme seasonal changes. Known for their different shapes, sizes, and behaviors, stickleback fish can live in both saltwater and freshwater, and can tolerate a wide range of temperatures.

Stickleback fish, which can be found in different estuaries along coastal California, provided researchers with an opportunity to study natural selection in real-time.  The researchers analyzed six populations of threespine stickleback fish before and after seasonal changes to their environment.   The research team discovered evidence of genetic changes driven by the seasonal shifts in habitat that mirrored the differences found between long-established freshwater and saltwater populations.  Since these genetic changes occurred in independent populations over a single season, the study highlights just how quickly the effects of natural selection can be detected. 

These findings suggest that scientists may be able to use the genetic differences that evolved in the past as a way to predict how species may adapt to climate change in the future.

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Which animals will survive climate change?

Sixth Mass Extinction of Wildlife Accelerating- Study

Photo, posted August 3, 2015, courtesy of Jason Ching/University of Washington via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Progress Towards Carbon-Free Power | Earth Wise

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Climate change has driven countries, states, utilities, and corporations to set goals to eliminate power-sector carbon emissions.  So far, 17 U.S. states plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico have adopted laws or executive orders to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity over the next couple of decades.  Forty-six U.S. utilities have pledged to go carbon-free no later than 2050.   Adding these together, these government and industry goals cover about half of the U.S. population and economy.

New research from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has analyzed historical trends to determine how much progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions.  The study focused on the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook from the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration.

If the previous growth in emissions had continued from 2005 to 2020, annual CO2 emissions would have risen from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons.  But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 metric tons.  So, by this metric, the U.S. power sector cut emission by 52% below projected levels.

According to the study, total consumer electricity costs were 18% lower than projected values, but meanwhile, the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. 

Among the driving forces for these trends were wind and solar power dramatically outperforming earlier expectations, delivering 13 times more generation in 2020 than projected. 

The study shows that dramatic changes in emissions are possible over a 15-year span, but much has to happen over the next 15 years to ensure the progress required to meet the ambitious goals set for emissions reductions.

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U.S. Power Sector is Halfway to Zero Carbon Emissions

Photo, posted April 18, 2020, courtesy of Roman Ranniew via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Cost Of Invasive Species | Earth Wise

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A new study published in Nature has tried for the first time to put a price tag on the impact of invasive species.  Researchers have been studying the effects of invasive species for decades, but it is a problem that has not really captured the attention of the public and policy makers.

According to the research by scientists at the French National Museum of Natural History, from 1970 to 2017, invasive species have cost the global economy at least $1.28 trillion dollars in damages and efforts to control them.

The team screened over 19,000 published papers, ultimately analyzing nearly 2,000 that detailed costs of various invasions at particular times.   Annual costs roughly doubled every six years, reaching a yearly bill of $162 billion in 2017.

The five costliest invasive species are Aedes mosquitos, rats, cats, termites, and fire ants, collectively accounting for a quarter of the global damage.

Asian tiger mosquitos and yellow fever mosquitos alone accounted for $149 billion in damage to public health as they spread from country to country.  Rats hitchhike on human boats and drive native species to extinction on islands around the world.  Cats inflict damage primarily by their impact on native biodiversity.  By some estimates, they kill a billion birds each year in the US alone.   Termites, as they spread across the globe, wreak havoc on all sorts of infrastructure.  Fire ants can feed on a variety of seedlings, from citrus to soybeans, reduce the size of grazing lands for livestock and bite and sting farm animals and humans.

The study shows invasive species are a massive problem that is getting worse.

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Invasive Species Cost Billions of Dollars in Damages Annually, Researchers Find

Photo, posted March 29, 2012, courtesy of Aleksey Gnilenkov via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Deep Learning And Dirty Air | Earth Wise

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Poor air quality is a major global problem.  According to the World Health Organization, exposure to air pollution is linked to the premature deaths of an estimated seven million people every year.  In fact, 9 out of 10 people breathe air that contains more pollutants than what the WHO considers safe.  Air pollution is the fourth largest threat to human health, trailing only high blood pressure, dietary risks, and smoking.

But predicting pollution levels at a given place and time remains challenging.  According to a new study recently published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, scientists are turning to deep learning to improve air quality estimates. 

According to researchers, satellite observations and ground observations both measure air pollution, but both have major limitations.  For example, satellites may collect data at the same time and at the same location each day, but they miss how emissions may vary throughout the day.  Ground-based observations from weather stations do continuously collect data, but they only do so in a limited number of locations.    

As a result, scientists have turned to deep learning – a type of machine learning – to analyze the relationship between satellite and ground-based observations of nitrogen dioxide around Los Angeles.  Nitrogen dioxide is associated with emissions from traffic and power plants.  The researchers were able to rely on the learned relationship to take daily satellite observations and create hourly estimates of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide levels in approximately three mile grids.     

According to the research team, this study could be repeated for other greenhouse gases, and applied to different cities and regions – or even whole continents. 

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Scientists turn to deep learning to improve air quality forecasts

Air Pollution

Photo, posted November 4, 2019, courtesy of Ninara via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Global Warming Could Stabilize | Earth Wise

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The world has been heading toward climate disaster with the effects of greenhouse gas-induced warming looming larger and larger.  But recent analysis published in Nature Climate Change offers hope that rapidly eliminating emissions could stabilize global temperatures just within a couple of decades.

For quite some time, it has been assumed that further global warming would be locked in for generations regardless of the extent of emissions reductions going forward.  This conclusion was based on having a certain carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere which would linger for hundreds of years even if emissions were reduced.

Recent analysis takes into account the dynamism of the Earth’s natural systems which could actually reduce atmospheric CO2 content because of the huge carbon absorption capacity of oceans, wetlands, and forests.  The key requirement is to drastically reduce emissions so that these natural systems can take over.

More than 100 countries have pledged to get to net zero emissions by 2050.  That means they will emit no more carbon dioxide than is removed from the atmosphere by such actions as restoring forests.   The UK, Japan, and the European Union are among the countries that have set this zero target, and the United States is joining the club.

Climate models show that a global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius over that of the pre-industrial period would lead to global calamities that include punishing heatwaves, flooding, and mass displacement of people.  The world has already heated up by 1.1 degrees and governments have committed to restrain the rise to less than 1.5 degrees under the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Global Warming Could Stabilize Faster than Originally Thought If Nations Achieve Net Zero

Photo, posted September 10, 2017, courtesy of Ron Cogswell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

What’s Killing Orcas? | Earth Wise

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With their characteristic tall dorsal fins and black and white color patterns, orcas are one of the ocean’s most iconic species.  Measuring up to 32 feet long and weighing as much as 6 tons, orcas have one of the largest geographic distributions of any species.  They live in all latitudes, in all oceans, from the Arctic to Antarctica.    

While they are often referred to as killer whales, orcas are actually not whales at all.  Orcas are the largest dolphin species and one of the most powerful predators on the planet. 

But human interference has made life significantly more difficult for orcas in recent years.  According to pathology reports on more than 50 orcas stranded over nearly a decade in the northeast Pacific and around Hawaii, the predators face a myriad of mortal threats.  Many of those threats stem from human interactions. 

Researchers from the British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture analyzed these orca pathology reports in a new study, which was recently published in the journal PLOS ONE,.  Of 52 orcas stranded between 2004 and 2013, causes of death were determined for 42%. For example, one orca died after receiving a halibut hook injury. Two orcas died from the blunt force trauma of vessel strikes. While there was no singular common cause of death, the study found a common theme:  human-caused deaths occurred in every age class – from juveniles to adults.

The researchers also note that humans aren’t just indirectly hurting orcas with things like lack of salmon or legacy toxins.  Humans are also directly killing killer whales with boat strikes and fishing gear.   

These findings will help establish a baseline of information to assess future orca conservation efforts. 

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What’s killing killer whales?

Photo, posted July 5, 2009, courtesy of Rennett Stowe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Mega-Droughts | Earth Wise

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According to a new report led by researchers from the University of Queensland in Australia, mega-droughts are expected to increase as global temperatures rise with the progression of climate change.  While mega-droughts have no strict scientific definition, most studies – including this one – define them as prolonged droughts lasting two decades or longer. 

The research team analyzed geological records from the Eemian Period – 129,000 to 116,000 years ago – to create a model of what to expect over the next 20-50 years.  The Eemian Period is the most recent in Earth’s history when global temperatures were similar – or maybe even slightly warmer – than they are today. 

By analyzing the climate during this period, the research team found that the world will likely experience increased water scarcity, reduced winter snow cover, more frequent wildfires and wind erosion as a result of global warming.

In the report, which was recently issued by the University of Queensland, the researchers collaborated with the New South Wales Parks and Wildlife Service to identify stalagmites in the northern section of Kosciuszko National Park.  They were able to study small samples of calcium carbonate powder contained in the cave stalagmites, allowing them to identify periods of reduced precipitation during the Eemian Period. 

Historically, mega-droughts have been associated with mass exoduses of people from the affected areas.  In fact, mega-droughts are suspected of contributing to the collapse of several pre-industrial civilizations across Southeast Asia and the Americas.

If humans continue to warm the planet, the researchers say more mega-droughts will be in our future.

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Expect more mega-droughts

Photo, posted March 28, 2014, courtesy of Marufish via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Carnivores Eating Human Food | Earth Wise

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A recent study by ecologists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has found that carnivores living near people often get more than half of their diets from human food sources rather than from their traditional prey.  This represents a major lifestyle disruption that puts North America’s carnivore-dominated ecosystems at risk.

The researchers studied the diets of seven predator species across the Great Lakes region using bone and fur samples taken from animals from areas as remote as national parks to metropolitan areas including Albany, New York.  What they found – unsurprisingly – is that the closer carnivores lived to cities and farms, the more human food they ate.  Dietary contributions of human food varied with species, but on average was more than 25% in most human-altered habitats.

The researchers studied the diets of carnivores like bobcats, coyotes, red and gray foxes, fishers, and American martens by chemical analysis of samples from Minnesota, Wisconsin, upstate New York, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  The diets of the animals could be analyzed on the basis of the carbon content of bone and fur samples.  Human food, heavy in corn and sugar, lends these samples a distinctive carbon isotope signature.  In contrast, prey species confer their own carbon signatures.  The ratio of these isotope fingerprints provides information on the proportion of an animal’s diet that came from human sources.

Relying upon human food increases how much carnivores overlap one another in their competition for food.  Compared to when these predators vie for distinct prey, there can be more conflicts between animals.  Changing how a species gets their food can have far-ranging effects on ecosystems.

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Carnivores living near people feast on human food, threatening ecosystems

Photo, posted August 18, 2007, courtesy of Jitze Couperus via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Quiet In The Pandemic | Earth Wise

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The early months of the Covid-19 pandemic had dramatic effects on many aspects of our daily lives.  Vehicle traffic, air pollution, and many other aspects of modern life saw reduced levels not seen in decades.  It turns out that one of the things that saw reduced levels was people’s exposure to environmental noise.

According to University of Michigan researchers, daily average sound levels dropped in half during the time that local governments made announcements about social distancing and issued stay-at-home orders in March and April as compared to noise levels measured in January and February.

The data was acquired from the Apple Hearing Study, which looked at noise exposure data from volunteer Apple Watch users in Florida, New York, California, and Texas.  The analysis included more than half a million daily noise levels measured before and during the pandemic shutdown.

The noise reduction – 3 decibels, which is a factor of two in noise level – is considered to be quite large and could have a significant effect on people’s overall health outcomes over time.

The four states studied had differing responses in terms of stay-at-home orders.  Both California and New York both had really drastic reductions in sound that happened very quickly, whereas Florida and Texas had somewhat less of a reduction.

The study demonstrated the utility of everyday use of digital devices in evaluating daily behaviors and exposures.  This sort of analysis could allow researchers to begin describing what personal sound exposures are like for Americans who live in a certain state, or are of a certain age, or who do or don’t have hearing loss.  The Apple Hearing Study is continuing and is still accepting new participants.

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Stay-at-home orders cut noise exposure nearly in half

Photo, posted April 10, 2020, courtesy of Joey Zanotti via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hydropower And Floating Solar | Earth Wise

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According to a new analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, hybrid systems of floating solar panels and hydroelectric plants have the potential to produce a significant portion of the world’s electricity.

According to their estimates, adding floating solar panels to bodies of water that host hydropower stations could produce up to 7.6 terawatts of power a year from the solar systems, resulting in about 10,600 terawatt-hours of energy.  The total global electricity consumption in 2018 was 22,300 terawatt-hours.  So, the potential in terms of the global appetite for electricity is very large.

This estimate is certainly optimistic.  It does not take into account economic feasibility or specific market demand.  What it does represent is an estimate of the technical and performance potential of floating photovoltaics at hydroelectric facilities.

Floating solar is just starting to be used in the U.S., but it has already caught on overseas where space for ground-mounted systems is at a greater premium. 

According to the NREL study, nearly 400,000 freshwater hydropower reservoirs across the globe could host floating PV sites that could be used in conjunction with the existing hydroelectric plants.  One important advantage of this approach is that the hybrid system would reduce transmission costs by linking to a common substation.  In addition, the two technologies could balance each other, with solar power taking up the slack in dry seasons and hydropower working well in rainy seasons.  In some places, pumped storage hydropower could be used to store excess solar generation.

There is great potential in hybrid floating solar/hydroelectric power.

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Untapped potential exists for blending hydropower, floating solar panels

Photo, posted April 12, 2009, courtesy of Alexis Nyal via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Shrinking Ice In The Bering Sea | Earth Wise

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The Bering Sea forms the divide between the two largest landmasses on Earth:  Eurasia and the Americas.  Recent analysis of vegetation from a Bering Sea island has determined that the extent of sea ice in the region is the lowest it has been for over 5,000 years.

St. Matthew Island, a small island in the middle of the Bering Sea, has essentially been recording what is happening in the ocean and atmosphere around it, in the form of the composition of peat layers on the island.  By analyzing the chemical composition of peat core samples, scientists can estimate how sea ice in the region has changed over the course of time.

Changes in the relative amounts of two oxygen isotopes in the sediment and plant debris trapped in the peat on the island reflect the nature of precipitation during the period when the peat layers formed.  That ratio is correlated with the amount of sea ice in the region.  Satellite data acquired over the past 40 years confirms this correlation.

Analysis of the data shows that the current ice levels are unprecedented in the last 5,500 years.  These long-term findings affirm that reductions in Bering Sea ice are due to more than recent higher temperatures associated with global warming.  Atmospheric and ocean currents, which have also been altered by climate change, play a large role in the presence of sea ice.

Summertime sea ice in the Arctic was expected to reach its second-lowest extent in September in 40 years of observation.  Sea ice typically builds up again each winter, but the changes in ice extents actually lag behind changes in greenhouse gas level by decades.  Future ice loss is already built into the system.

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Bering Sea ice extent is at most reduced state in last 5,500 years

Photo, posted December 2, 2012, courtesy of Bering Land Bridge National Preserve via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Dangers Of Negative Emissions Technologies | Earth Wise

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Reducing carbon emissions is not easy and there are plenty of people who don’t even want to try for various reasons, generally related to their perceived economic interests and convenience.  As a result, there is a great deal of interest in so-called negative emissions technologies or NETs.   These are methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  Even the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assumes that NETs will play a role in mitigating the effects of climate change and meeting international goals.

The most widely studied approaches to negative emissions technology are bioenergy with carbon capture and storage – which entails growing crops for fuel, and then capturing and burying the CO2 produced from burning the fuel; planting more forests; and direct air capture, which involves actually pulling CO2 out of the air and storing it – probably underground. 

A new study published in Nature Climate Change points out that none of these technologies has even been tried at the demonstration scale, much less at the massive levels required to make a dent in current CO2 emissions. 

Their analysis of the biofuel and reforestation strategies show that each would take up vast land and water resources already needed for agriculture and nature.  Air capture uses less water than the other two approaches, but still uses quite a bit and even more energy, which if supplied by fossil fuels, would offset the benefits of carbon capture.

Negative emissions technologies may well play an important role in combating climate change, but it is essential that we understand what the consequences will be from implementing them.  We need to know the pitfalls that could arise.  It would be a major mistake to simply count on NETs to be some kind of silver bullet.

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Remove CO2 from the air? Don’t bet on it before examining costs, researchers say

Photo, posted January 11, 2008, courtesy of Al Pavangkanan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another Greenhouse Gas Record

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According to the World Meteorological Organization, levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached yet another new record high.  Globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide reached 407.8 parts per million in 2018, up from 405.5 parts per million in 2017.

The increase year-over-year was similar to that from 2016 to 2017, and remains a little over the average for the last decade.  Global CO2 levels crossed the 400 parts per million threshold in 2015.

Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also increased by higher amounts than the average for the past decade, based on observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch network with stations all over the globe.

Since 1990, there has been a 43% increase in total radiative forcing – which is the warming effect on the climate from long-lived greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide accounts for about 80% of this.  The report notes that the last time the Earth experienced this high a level of CO2 was 3 to 5 million years ago. At that time, global temperatures were 2 to 3 Celsius degrees higher and sea levels were 30 to 60 feet higher than now.

The report includes data on the isotopic analysis of the CO2 in the atmosphere.  CO2 produced by fossil fuel combustion comes from plant material from millions of years ago and does not contain radiocarbon, that is, carbon-14.  CO2 from natural sources contains radiocarbon produced by cosmic rays.  The increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere contain decreasing levels of radiocarbon, indicating that the overall increase is largely due to human activities.

Overall, global efforts to date to reduce emissions have not been very successful, and this is borne out by the growing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

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Greenhouse gas concentrations in atmosphere reach yet another high

Photo courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Carbon Capture As Big Business

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Removing greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere is an essential part of the overall effort to achieve zero net carbon emissions and stabilize the climate.  Since we have not been able to reduce emissions fast enough to do the job, it is important to find ways to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

There are many ways to do it, but they tend to be rather expensive and, so far, the need to mitigate climate change does not seem to provide sufficient incentive. A new study by researchers at UCLA, the University of Oxford, and five other institutions, analyzed the possibility of creating a large global industry based on capturing carbon dioxide and turning it into commercial products.

The study investigated the potential future scale and cost of 10 different ways to use carbon dioxide, including in fuels and chemicals, plastics, building materials, soil management, and forestry.  The study looked at processes using carbon dioxide captured from waste products that are produced by burning fossil fuels as well as by simply capturing it directly from the atmosphere.  The study also looked at processes that use carbon dioxide captured biologically by photosynthesis.

The conclusions of the study were that on average each of the ten utilization pathways could use about half a billion tons of carbon dioxide that would otherwise escape into the atmosphere.  Thus, theoretically, these various pathways could take more than five billion tons of CO2 out of the atmosphere.   Currently, fossil fuel combustion emits about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

The authors of the study stress that there is no silver bullet in the fight against climate change.  It will require multiple approaches – including CO2 removal for industrial use – to make real progress

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Carbon dioxide capture and use could become big business

Photo, posted September 18, 2015, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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