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Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

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In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wild Pigs And The Environment | Earth Wise

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There are millions of wild pigs in the world with the largest numbers in the United States and Australia but significant numbers in South America, Europe, and China.  In the US, there are as many as 9 million feral swine living in 38 states.  A conservative estimate indicates that they cause about $1.5 billion in property and agricultural damage each year in this country.

Researchers in Australia have studied the climate damage wild pigs are causing across five continents.  According to the study, by uprooting carbon trapped in soil, wild pigs are releasing over 5 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is the equivalent of 1.1 million cars.

When soils are disturbed from humans plowing a field, or from wild animals uprooting, carbon is released into the atmosphere.  According to the researchers, wild pigs are just like tractors plowing through fields, turning over soil to find food.

The study used predictive population models coupled with advanced mapping techniques to pinpoint the damage wild pigs are causing.  According to the models, pigs are currently uprooting an area between 14,000 and 47,000 square miles, which is an enormous amount of land.  The effects are not just on the health of the soil and on carbon emissions.  This much damage also threatens biodiversity and food security.

Wild pigs are basically a human-caused problem, being either feral descendants of domestic swine, or hybrids of domestic swine and wild boars.  Wild pigs are prolific and their numbers have been expanding rapidly  Controlling their populations will require cooperation and collaboration across multiple jurisdictions.

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The climate impact of wild pigs greater than a million cars

Photo, posted July 1, 2017, courtesy of Shiva Shenoy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Soaring Heat And Inner-City Neighborhoods | Earth Wise

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The record-breaking heatwaves this summer have exposed the special vulnerability inner cities have to the effects of summer heat.  Climate change has exacerbated and supercharged heatwaves, as was seen in Seattle and Portland in late June.

Urban cores can be 10 degrees or more warmer than the surrounding countryside.  The urban heat island effect is a result of how cities are built, with so much pavement, so many buildings, and not enough trees.  On top of this, decades of disinvestment in neighborhoods where people of color live have left them especially vulnerable to heat as their homes are not able to cope with it.

In New York City, some residents of Hunts Point in the Bronx keep lists of neighbors they check on to help keep the most vulnerable alive during heat waves.  The city has subsidized 74,000 air conditioners for low-income, elderly residents, and is spending millions to plant trees.  In Phoenix, the hottest big city in the country, officials are working to develop new models for cooler public housing and cooling for streets and pedestrian corridors.

A study, published in 2020, looked at the linkage between higher heat island temperatures and past practices of redlining, where home loans and insurance were unavailable to people in neighborhoods of color.  In 94 of 108 communities studied, the formerly redlined neighborhoods had higher surface temperatures.

Cities are confronted with two heat problems:  emergencies that require immediate action to save lives, and long-term issues related to combating soaring temperatures in heat islands strengthened by global warming. In many cases, cities are not prepared for either problem.  Dealing with and adapting to heat is essential to the long-term viability and quality of life in our cities.

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A Triple Whammy Has Left Many Inner-City Neighborhoods Highly Vulnerable to Soaring Temperatures

Photo, posted May 27, 2014, courtesy of Dan DeLuca via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Gulf Of Mexico Dead Zone | Earth Wise

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Every summer, a so-called dead zone forms in the Gulf of Mexico.  It is primarily caused by excess nutrient pollution from human activities in urban and agricultural areas throughout the Mississippi River watershed. 

When these excess nutrients reach the Gulf, they stimulate excess growth of algae, which eventually die and decompose, depleting oxygen as they sink to the bottom.  These low oxygen levels near the Gulf bottom cannot support most marine life.  Animals that are sufficiently mobile – such as fish, shrimp, and crabs – generally swim out of the area.  Those that can’t move away are stressed or killed by the low oxygen.

A team of scientists funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues an annual forecast for the dead zone based upon a suite of models that incorporate river flow and nutrient data. 

The 2021 forecasted area is somewhat smaller than, but close to, the five-year measured average for the dead zone, which is 5,400 square miles, roughly the size of the state of Connecticut.   Each year, these forecasts are reported as comparisons to long-term averages, but the problem is that the long-term average is unacceptable.

The Interagency Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force has set a goal of reducing the size of the dead zone to a five-year average of 1,900 square miles – about a third of the current average.

Large reductions in nutrient loads have been called for in federal and state action plans for nearly 20 years, but clearly these reductions have not yet been sufficient. The Interagency Task Force continues to provide information for managing nutrient loads in the Mississippi River Basin. 

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Average-sized ‘dead zone’ forecast for Gulf of Mexico

Photo, posted October 6, 2020, courtesy of Christine Warner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Heat-Related Deaths | Earth Wise

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According to a new study recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, more than one-third of the world’s heat-related deaths each year are attributable to human-induced climate change. 

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK  and the University of Bern in Switzerland analyzed data from 732 locations in 43 countries.  They took observed temperatures and compared them with 10 computer models simulating a world without climate change.  By applying this technique to their data, the researchers were able to calculate for the first time the actual contribution of anthropogenic climate change in increasing mortality risks due to heat.

The research team found that 37% of all heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018 were attributable to the warming of the planet due to human activities.  This percentage was highest in South America, Central America, and South-East Asia. 

In the United States, 35% of heat deaths were found to be a result of climate change.  New York had the most heat-related deaths at 141, and Honolulu had the highest percentage of heat deaths attributable to climate change at 82%.

But scientists caution that this is only a small portion of the climate’s overall impact. Many more people die from other extreme weather amplified by climate change, including severe storms, floods, and droughts.  Heat-related death figures will grow exponentially as temperatures rise.

According to the research team, the study’s findings highlight the need to adopt stronger climate change mitigation strategies, and to implement interventions to protect people from the adverse consequences of heat exposure.    

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Global warming already responsible for one in three heat-related deaths

Photo, posted April 14, 2017, courtesy of Karim Bench via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Farming Productivity | Earth Wise

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The future potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on global agricultural systems has been well studied, but how human-caused climate change has already affected the agricultural sector is not as well understood.  But a new study led by researchers at Cornell University and supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the National Science Foundation examined this issue. 

Despite important agricultural breakthroughs in technology, fertilizer use and global trade during the past 60 years, it turns out that the climate crisis is already eroding farm productivity.  According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, global farming productivity is 21% lower than it could have been without climate change.  This is the equivalent of losing approximately seven years of farm productivity increases since the 1960s. 

The researchers developed a model linking annual changes in weather and productivity with output from the latest climate models over six decades to quantify the effect of anthropogenic climate change on what economists call “total factor productivity.” This measure captures the overall productivity of the agricultural sector. 

The research team reviewed 200 variations of the model, but the results remained largely consistent:  anthropogenic climate change is already slowing down global food production.  The researchers say the historical impacts of climate change have been larger in naturally warmer climates, like in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.   

Climate change is not some distant problem to solve in the future.  It is already having an impact on the planet and it needs to be addressed now.

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Climate change cut global farming productivity 21% since 1960s

Photo, posted October 2, 2013, courtesy of the United Soybean Board via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Policy Moves on Electric Cars | Earth Wise

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In recent times, there have been several significant events affecting the transition to electric vehicles.  The new administration has made aggressive moves toward fighting climate change.  Wall Street investors have placed more value on Tesla stock than that of GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford combined.  China, the world’s largest car market, recently mandated that most new cars must be powered by electricity within 15 years.

Against this background, the CEO of General Motors announced in late January that the company will aim to sell only zero-emission cars and trucks by 2035.

This announcement took the rest of the auto industry by surprise.  In the past, the industry tended to present a united message on emissions and other policy issues.  This time around, GM has stepped out in front of the issue.

GM has already committed to spending $27 billion to introduce 30 electric vehicle models by 2025 and is building a plant in Ohio to make batteries for those cars and trucks.

A key driver in the GM decision, no doubt, was an executive order signed by President Biden on his first day of office.  The order directed the Environmental Protection Agency to immediately begin developing tough new tailpipe pollution regulations, designed to reduce the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Even before the change in administration, five other major automakers – BMW, Ford, Honda, Volkswagen, and Volvo – had already legally bound themselves to tougher fuel economy standards in a deal with California.  Those companies committed to an average fuel economy of 51 miles per gallon in 2026.

While no other large automaker has set a specific target date for selling only electric vehicles, many of them are moving in that direction.  The rapid growth of Tesla is an indicator of where the auto industry is heading.

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G.M. Announcement Shakes Up U.S. Automakers’ Transition to Electric Cars

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Reduced Air Travel And Weather Forecasts | Earth Wise

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There have been countless stories about the major and minor changes in the world caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.  A few of those changes, such as reductions in pollution and traffic, have been positive.  Most have been decidedly negative.

One of the stranger things that has happened is that the pandemic has affected the quality of weather forecasting by sharply reducing the amount of atmospheric data routinely collected by commercial airliners.

It turns out that atmospheric observations from passenger and cargo flights are among the most important data used in weather forecasting models.  These observations are made by instruments aboard thousands of airliners, mostly based in North America and Europe.  The observation program has been in place for decades.  The data is transmitted in real time to forecasting organizations around the world, including the National Weather Service.  About 40 airlines participate in the program, which has equipment aboard about 3,500 aircraft.  Here in the US, Delta, United, American, and Southwest Airlines participate, as do UPS and FedEx.

During the first few months of the pandemic, air traffic declined by 75% or more worldwide.  As a result, atmospheric observations dropped by the same percentage.  A government research study showed that when weather forecasting models receive less data on temperature, wind, and humidity from aircraft, the accuracy of forecasts was reduced.

The amount of data from aircraft has increased in recent months as air travel has picked up to roughly 50% of pre-pandemic levels.  So, the observation program is on the mend.  Nonetheless, impaired weather forecasting is just another unexpected result of the global pandemic.

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Slump in Air Travel Hindered Weather Forecasting, Study Shows

Photo, posted July 15, 2017, courtesy of Daria Nepriakhina via Flickr. Photo by Photo by Daria / epicantus.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Community Solar With Storage In New York | Earth Wise

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Community solar allows members of a community to share the benefits of solar power even if they cannot or prefer not to install solar panels on their own property.  There are several models for how community solar works, but all of them allow members to benefit from solar power being generated by an offsite solar array by effectively allocating a portion of its output to them.  In any event, community solar can save money on electric bills and allow people to make use of renewable energy for their needs.

A next step in the evolution of a decentralized energy system is incorporating energy storage into community solar projects.  The first one of these in New York State has now been completed in Yorktown Heights in Westchester County.  The project consists of 557kW of rooftop solar in the form of nearly 1,500 solar panels paired with 490kW of four-hour Tesla Powerpack battery energy storage.  The system is expected to provide 150 participants with approximately 10% savings on their monthly electric bills over 25 years, as well as providing power to 12 Tesla electric vehicle charging stations.

The project was funded by NYSERDA, under its Retail Energy Storage Incentive program, which currently includes 50 community solar-storage paired projects across New York State that are expected to be installed in the next two to three years.

New York has been actively promoting community projects in support of goals announced by Governor Andrew Cuomo to install 6,000MW of solar in the state by 2025 and 3,000MW of energy storage by 2030.

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First community solar-storage project completed in New York

Photo, posted June 21, 2017, courtesy of Franck Michel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Carbon In The Ocean | Earth Wise

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New research from the University of Exeter in the UK reveals that the world’s oceans soak up more carbon than previously believed.  Previous estimates of the movement of carbon between the atmosphere and the oceans did not account for the temperature differences between the water’s surface and a few meters below.

The new model includes this factor and finds that there is a significantly higher flux of carbon into the oceans.

The study calculated carbon dioxide fluxes from 1992 to 2018 and found that at certain times and locations there was up to twice as much CO2 contained in the ocean as determined from previous models.

The temperature differences between the surface of the ocean and the water at a depth of a few meters is important because the amount of carbon dioxide that can be absorbed in water depends very strongly on the temperature of the water.   Anyone with a home soda maker knows this well as the devices always work much better with refrigerated water than room temperature water.

The difference in ocean carbon dioxide uptake measured from satellite data and calculated in the new modeling amounts to about 10% of global fossil fuel emissions, so it is a very significant revision.  The revised estimate for carbon dioxide uptake actually agrees much better with an independent method for calculating the amount of carbon dioxide in the oceans.  Those measurements came from a global ocean survey performed by research ships over decades.

Now that two so-called big data estimates of the ocean sink for CO2 agree pretty well, there is greater confidence that we understand this important aspect of the planet’s carbon cycle.

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Ocean carbon uptake widely underestimated

Photo, posted December 30, 2012, courtesy of Jerome Decq via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The South Pole | Earth Wise

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According to a study led by researchers at Ohio University, the South Pole has warmed more than three times the global average over the past 30 years.  While the warming was driven by natural tropic climate variability, the researchers argue that rising greenhouse gas emissions likely intensified the warming. 

The climate in the antarctic has some of the largest ranges in temperature during the year.  Some regions, like most of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, experienced warming during the late 20th century.  But the South Pole, which is located in the remote and high-altitude interior of the continent, actually cooled until the 1980s.  The South Pole, as the study highlights, has warmed substantially ever since. 

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers analyzed climate models and weather station data at the South Pole.  They found that, between 1989 and 2018, the South Pole had warmed by 1.8 degrees Celsius.  This warming trend of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade is three times the global average. 

According to the study, the robust warming of the Antarctic interior has been mainly driven by the tropics.  Warm ocean temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean have altered the winds in the South Atlantic, increasing the delivery of warm air to the South Pole.  These atmospheric changes are an important part of what’s driving the climate anomalies in the region.

But the researchers argue that the warming trends are unlikely a result of natural climate change alone.  The effects of anthropogenic – or human-caused – climate change in addition to the natural changes have combined to make this one of the strongest warming trends globally.    

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Extreme warming of the South Pole

Photo, posted February 7, 2011, courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Oil Platforms And Fish | Earth Wise

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It is well-known that offshore oil platforms become major habitats for fish.  Their support structures rise hundreds of feet through the water column and basically create a prefabricated reef for marine life.   Many of these platforms will soon be decommissioned and government agencies are considering the consequences to undersea life when this happens.

Researchers at the University of California Santa Barbara have looked at how various decommissioning scenarios would affect undersea ecosystems. They found that completely removing a platform could reduce fish biomass by an average of 95%.  In contrast, removing just the top part of the rig could keep losses to around 10%.

California is looking at several possibilities for decommissioning 27 oil platforms off of its coast.  The three options are:  leave the platform in place, remove all of it, or remove just the top part of it.  Each option entails its own economic and ecological consequences.

The research team studied the size and composition of fish communities at 24 platforms and created models for each of the decommissioning scenarios.  The partial removal approach involved stripping away all structures within 26 meters of the surface.  This number would eliminate the need for a lighted buoy where the support structure remained according to U.S. Coast Guard guidelines.

For the 24 structures studied, leaving them entirely in place would support over 29,000 kilograms of fish biomass.  Removing just the top 26 meters would support nearly 28,000 kilograms.  Removing the platforms entirely would support only 500 kilograms of fish biomass.

As California weighs how to decommission its oil platforms, studies like this will be critical to making informed decisions.

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Oil Platforms’ Fishy Future

Photo, posted June 4, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Tropical Forests As Carbon Sinks | Earth Wise

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Tropical forests are an important part of the global carbon cycle because they take up and store large amounts of carbon dioxide.  Because of this, deforestation in the Amazon and other tropical forests is a major contributor to the growing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Therefore, climate models need to accurately take into account the ability of tropical forests to sequester carbon.  It turns out that this is not such a simple matter.  A new study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis sought to determine how much detail about tropical forests is needed in order to make valid assumptions about the strength of forest carbon sinks.

They looked at the role of both biotic factors – differences between plant species that are responsible for capturing more or less carbon from the atmosphere – and abiotic factors – local environmental factors like soil properties that also influence carbon sink strength.

It is generally assumed that more diverse forest communities capture available resources more efficiently as a result of complementary characteristics and preferences of certain species to specific conditions.  Factors like soil texture and chemistry are also important.  In general, the results show that abiotic and biotic factors interact with one another to determine how much carbon can be stored by the ecosystem.

Traditional projections of the role of tropical forests in storing carbon mostly rely on remote sensing techniques that integrate over large spatial areas.  The new study shows that there can be large differences in the carbon storing ability of tropical forests and that more detailed models are needed to produce more accurate projections.

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Shedding light on how much carbon tropical forests can absorb

Photo, posted July 17, 2014, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Why The Arctic Is Warming So Fast | Earth Wise

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The Arctic has been warming at the fastest rate of any place on Earth.  There have long been observations of amplification of Arctic warming, meaning that its temperature increases have been well above what would be expected from the global temperature rise.

Many climate models have attributed this warming to the melting of sea ice.  As the bright white ice disappears for longer periods of the year, the dark surface waters that are exposed absorb sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space the way the ice does.  This is known as the ice-albedo feedback.  But it does not entirely explain the amount of warming in the Arctic.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory that helps to explain what is going on.

In the areas of the Arctic Ocean where there is sea ice, the water is actually warmer at depth and colder near the surface.  The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic Oceans while the surface water is cooled by the ice.  The increasing temperature difference between surface and deeper water causes a greater upward flow of heat.  This was first observed in research cruises that revealed evidence that the Arctic Ocean water was becoming more turbulent over time.

According to computer modeling, this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

There are multiple ongoing studies looking at the Arctic warming trend.  Other factors that have contributed over time are the presence of chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere.   That contribution is waning since the use of CFCs has been phasing out over time.

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Researchers Find New Reason Why Arctic is Warming So Fast

Photo, posted April 19, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hyping Electric Cars | Earth Wise

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During this year’s Super Bowl, at least three car companies – GM, Porsche, and Audi – ran commercials for plug-in cars.  This is a sign that automakers are ramping up their efforts to persuade the public that electric cars really are the future.

The auto industry is investing billions of dollars to develop electric vehicles, spurred by stricter emissions rules in places like California and concerns about climate change.  In fact, more than 100 new plug-in models are expected to become available in the United States over the next five years.

In Europe, electric cars are increasingly popular.  Norwegians, for example, buy more electric cars than gas cars.  And several European countries have banned the sale of gas cars starting in 2025.

But in the US, enthusiasm for electric cars has been slow to build.  Automakers sold fewer than 330,00 electric vehicles in the US in 2019 and more than half of those were from Tesla, which actually does not even advertise its vehicles.

The auto industry spent nearly $9 billion in national and local advertising in the US last year, but less than half a percent of that went toward promoting electric vehicles.

A big part of the problem is that car dealers are not very enthusiastic about selling electric cars, which require far less maintenance than conventional cars and have far fewer costly replacement parts to sell.   As a result, the industry’s efforts to speed the transition to electric cars has been ambivalent at best.

World-wide, Tesla has sold about a million cars, mostly in the past 4 years, so there is clearly a growing demand for electric vehicles.  It is up to the rest of the industry to create demand for the new cars they have committed to produce.

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Super Bowl Ads Hyped Electric Cars. But Will Anyone Buy Them?

Photo, posted October 6, 2018, courtesy of Mike Fonseca via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Clouds And Global Warming | Earth Wise

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Recent climate models from multiple organizations project that the amount of warming that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause would be much more than previously estimated.  And one of the significant changes to the models relates to the role of clouds.

Clouds have long been a major uncertainty in climate calculations.  Clouds can shade the earth and thereby provide cooling.  But clouds can also trap heat.  Which effect dominates depends on how reflective the clouds are, how high up they are, and whether it is day or night.  The dynamics of clouds are complicated.

If you fly across the ocean, you will see blankets of low clouds extending for hundreds of miles.  These marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds predominantly cool the Earth.  In fact, they shade roughly a fifth of the oceans and reflect 30-60% of the solar radiation that hits them back into space.

Recent studies indicate that as global temperatures rise, these clouds are likely to become thinner or burn off entirely, leaving more clear skies through which the sun may add another degree Celsius or more to global warming.

The concerns about clouds are part of the larger issue about feedbacks in warming the world.  It has long been clear that the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere would raise global temperature.  But there are amplifying feedback effects.  Melting large areas of snow and ice reduces reflectivity and allows the land and oceans to absorb more heat.  More water vapor entering the atmosphere traps more heat.  And now clouds are another concern.

Overall, these effects are leading to climate models predicting much larger global temperature increases, which is a scary prospect for the world.

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Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

Photo, posted September 10, 2006, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The ‘Biggest Ever’ Arctic Expedition

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The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth.  In fact, it’s warming at a rate of almost twice the global average.  And, since what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic, the world is already feeling the effects: rising sea levels, changes in climate and precipitation patterns, increasing severe weather events, and so on. 

As a result, researchers from more than a dozen countries have launched the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the Arctic.  They plan to freeze Germany’s largest research vessel, the Polarstern, into Arctic sea ice, where it will remain trapped for twelve months.  The ship will drift with the sea ice as the sea ice drifts.  The vessel will serve as a research laboratory, hosting a rotating crew of 300 scientists.  The ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and even the wildlife will all be sampled.  This year-long journey will give researchers their closest look at how the polar climate and its fragile ecosystems are changing. 

Led by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate project (or MOSAiC) is expected to cost about $150 million. 

One major goal of MOSAiC is to improve strikingly uncertain climate projections for the Arctic.  Climate models disagree on how much more the Arctic will warm as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises and sea ice shrinks.  Some project a 5ºC rise by 2100 relative to the 1986-2005 average.  Others predict a 10ºC increase. 

Understanding the complex processes occurring in the Arctic is essential for projecting the future impacts of climate change. 

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Climate scientists prepare for largest ever Arctic expedition

Climate change: Polarstern leaves for ‘biggest ever’ Arctic expedition

Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Record European Heatwave

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Sahara Desert winds blasted Europe in June, especially during a five-day heatwave that set many records.  Between that and weather elsewhere, June was not only one of the hottest ever for that continent, but also for the world as a whole.

In Europe, the average temperature was about 5 degrees Fahrenheit above the June average of a century ago.  The global temperature was nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher.

The European heatwave broke temperature records in France, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and Spain.  A temperature above 114 degrees was recorded near the French city of Nîmes.

The intense heat lead to wildfires in Spain and Germany, and widespread disruption across Europe.  Undoubtedly, the heatwave has caused many premature deaths, but it will take some time to compile those statistics.  The European heatwave of 2003 caused more than 70,000 premature deaths.


According to calculations by climate scientists, the record-breaking heatwave in June was made at least 5 and as much as 100 times more likely by climate change.  Global heating caused by the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human activities means that heatwaves are becoming more probable and severe.  So-called attribution studies estimate how much more likely and severe such events are.

The researchers used temperature records stretching back to 1901 to assess the probability of a heatwave last month and in the past.  They also examined climate change models to assess the impact of global heating.  More than 230 attribution studies to date around the world have found that 95% of heatwaves were made more likely or worse by climate change.

It was the hottest June on record in Europe by a country mile and there are likely to be more months like it in the future.

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Climate Change Made Last Month’s European Heatwave At Least Five Times More Likely

Photo, posted February 13, 2018, courtesy of Guilhem Vellut via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Misconceptions About Electric Cars

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Tesla’s Model 3 was one of the best-selling cars in the United States last year, eclipsing all but a handful of sedans.  This was the first time that an electric car had that honor and is indicative of how electric cars are finally becoming mainstream.  A host of other new electric models from multiple manufacturers will be the entering the market over the next couple of years.

Despite all of this progress, there is still a great deal of misinformation about electric cars.  A new study commissioned by Volkswagen revealed some of the widespread misconceptions about the vehicles.

Some people believe that electric cars can’t be driven through puddles.  Nearly one in five people believe that electric cars slow down as the battery depletes.  Many people believe that electric cars are fundamentally less safe than gas-powered cars.

More generally, people are unaware of how far current electric cars can drive on a charge.  More and more models can go 200 and even over 300 miles between charging sessions.  People also don’t know how quickly cars can charge up either.  Fast chargers like Tesla’s Superchargers can add 200 miles worth of charge in about 20 minutes.  And people don’t know what it costs to charge electric cars.  In most places, it is only a fraction of what it costs to drive the same distance using gasoline.

Despite their limited knowledge about electric cars, the 2,000 people surveyed in Britain were positively disposed towards them with nearly 6 in 10 saying that they would like to own an electric car some day and would even consider one as their next vehicle.

Electric cars will become more familiar and less exotic as more and more of them are on our roads and highways.

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Major misconceptions prevent drivers from buying electric cars, study claims

Photo, posted April 6, 2018, courtesy of Brian Doyle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/electric-cars-misconceptions-battery-charging-safety-volkswagen-study-results-a8700536.html

Examining Sea Level Rise

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It’s no secret that sea levels along the East Coast of the United States are rising.  But what’s less known is that the water isn’t rising at the same rate everywhere.  As the climate continues to change, some cities may remain dry while others struggle to keep water out. 

During the 20th century, sea levels rose about 18 inches near Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and along the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia.  During that same time period, New York City and Miami experienced a 12 inch sea level rise, while the waters near Portland, Maine only rose 6 inches.  According to a study recently published in the journal Nature, there’s an explanation for this. 

The variation is a result of a phenomenon called “post-glacial rebound.”  During the last ice age, huge sheets of ice once covered land areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including parts of the Northeast U.S.  The weight of the ice weighted down the land like a boulder on a trampoline.  At the same time, peripheral lands such as the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast rose up.  As the ice melted, the previously weighted-down regions rebounded while the peripheral lands began to sink.  While these ice sheets disappeared some 7,000 years ago, this see-sawing of post-glacial rebound continues to this day. 

Researchers combined data from GPS satellites, tide gauges, and fossils in sediment with complex geophysical models to produce this comprehensive view of sea level change since 1900.  While post-glacial rebound accounts for most of the sea level variation along the East Coast, researchers noted that when that factor is stripped away, “sea level trends increased steadily from Maine all the way down to Florida.”

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Why is sea level rising faster in some places along the US East Coast than others?

Photo, posted August 24, 2014, courtesy of Bill Dickinson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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