Earth Wise

A look at our changing environment.

You are here: Home / Archives for models

models

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average.  In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events.  The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea.   Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature.  On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm.  Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict.  The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes.   There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

**********

Web Links

Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How Much Plastic Is Really In The Ocean? | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The world has produced more than 6 billion tons of plastic to date and much of that has become waste that has not been recycled, incinerated, or otherwise properly contained.  A great deal of it has ended up in the oceans of the world.

Researchers at Kyushu University in Japan have done an analysis to assess just how much plastic has ended up in the ocean.  According to the study, nearly 28 million tons of plastic waste has entered the ocean and nearly two-thirds of that cannot be monitored.

Furthermore, the Kyushu analysis suggests that those 28 million tons are just the tip of the plastic waste iceberg.  Their findings are that there may be another 600 million tons of mismanaged plastic waste trapped on land – nearly 10% of all the plastic ever produced.

The study created models that simulate the processes by which plastics find their way into the ocean, get transported, and fragment into pieces.  According to their models, large plastics and smaller pieces of microplastics floating on the ocean surface each account for only about 3% of all ocean plastics.  Microplastics on beaches account for another 3%, and 23% of ocean plastic waste is larger plastic litter on the world’s shores.

These things account for only about a third of ocean plastic.  The rest of it is in locations that are impossible to monitor such as heavy plastics that settle on the seafloor because they are denser than seawater.  Half of plastic products made today are made from these heavy plastics.

Plastic pollution is not just a big problem; evidently it is a bigger problem than we thought.

**********

Web Links

Visible ocean plastics just the tip of the iceberg

Photo, posted February 28, 2010, courtesy of Kevin Krejci via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

City Greenery And Carbon Emissions | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to the United Nations, more than half of the world’s population currently lives in cities.  Projections show that the combination of urbanization and global population growth could add another 2.5 billion people to cities by 2050. 

Unsurprisingly, cities are a major contributor to climate change.  According to U.N. estimates, cities are responsible for 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with transportation and buildings being among the largest contributors. 

According to a new study of vegetation across New York City and some adjoining urban areas, photosynthesis by trees and grasses on many summer days absorbs all the carbon emissions produced by cars, trucks and buses, and then some.  In fact, on many summer days, the total carbon uptake in the region equaled up to 40% of a summer afternoon’s total emissions from all sources in the City. The results, which were recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, further highlights the critical importance of urban greenery.

Most previous studies have analyzed the carbon uptake of vegetation by looking at the contiguous tracts of green spaces, but this only comprises about 10% of metro areas.  Using detailed aerial radar imagery of New York City that mapped vegetation in unprecedented 6-inch grids, the researchers were able to include the other 90% of the metro area typically left out in most models. 

Since carbon uptake by vegetation only occurs during the growing season, green spaces in cities situated in warmer climates likely play a larger role in carbon uptake. 

As city populations swell around the world, every bit of urban greenery is critical in the fight against climate change. 

**********

Web Links

New York City’s greenery absorbs a surprising amount of its carbon emissions

68% of the world population projected to live in urban areas by 2050, says UN

Photo, posted October 5, 2009, courtesy of David Orban via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Onshore Algae Farms | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to some estimates, food production will need to increase by 50% by 2050 in order to feed a projected global population of 10 billion people.  How can this be achieved?  

One solution, according to researchers at Cornell University, could be to grow nutritious and protein-dense microalgae in seawater-fed onshore aquaculture systems.

According to the research, which was recently published in the journal Oceanography, growing algae onshore could close a projected gap in society’s future nutritional demands while also improving environmental sustainability.  

Climate change, environmental degradation, limited arable land, and lack of freshwater will all constrain the amount of food that can be grown in the coming decades.  Wild fish stocks are already heavily exploited, and there are limits to how much finfish, shellfish, and seaweed aquaculture can be produced in the coastal ocean. 

As a result, the researchers argue for expanding algae production in onshore aquaculture facilities.  The research team’s models found that the best locations for onshore algae farming facilities are along the coasts of the Global South, including desert environments. 

Algae can grow as much as ten times faster than traditional crops.  Algae can also be produced in a manner that is more efficient than agriculture in its use of nutrients.  In addition to its high protein content, algae also provides nutrients lacking in vegetarian diets, such as essential amino acids, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acids.

Algae could become the breadbasket of the Global South.

**********

Web Links

Onshore algae farms could feed the world sustainably

Photo, posted June 17, 2011, courtesy of NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global Stilling | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

During the summer of 2021, much of Europe experienced a “wind drought” – wind speeds in many places were about 15% below average.  In the UK in particular, winds were unusually calm and wind energy production was dramatically reduced.

Globally, wind speeds have been dropping by about 2.3% per decade since the 1970s.  In 2019, however, global average windspeeds actually increased by about 6%.  The question is whether a trend of slowing winds – so-called global stilling – is associated with climate change or is just natural variability in action.

Wind results from uneven temperatures in air masses.   Much of the world’s wind comes from the difference between the cold air at the poles and the warm air at the tropics.  Because the Arctic is warming much faster than the tropics, it is possible that winds will continue to decline around the world. 

Another factor people cite is the increase in surface roughness.  The number and size of urban buildings continues to increase, which acts as a drag on winds.

Some models predict that wind speeds will decrease over much of the western U.S. and East Coast, but the central U.S. will see an increase.  Experts do not all agree about what is happening with global winds.  Many believe that the observed changes to date have been within the range of variability.  Furthermore, some places have been windier than usual.

All of this really matters for many reasons.  Europe is increasingly dependent upon wind power as an alternative to fossil fuels.  A 10% drop in wind speed results in a 30% drop in energy generation.   Whatever their cause may be, wind droughts cannot be ignored.

**********

Web Links

Global ‘Stilling’: Is Climate Change Slowing Down the Wind?

Photo, posted June 28, 2008, courtesy of Patrick Finnegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Decarbonizing Could Save Trillions | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Scientists have long been calling for a transition to clean energy to prevent catastrophic impacts of climate change.  For much of that time, many people and, specifically, many of those in power, were skeptical of the need to do something about the warming climate.  But even as the facts about the changing climate became increasingly undeniable, there continued to be fears that the transition to clean energy sources would be unacceptably expensive and harmful to the economy.

A recent study published by Oxford University shows that the opposite is true:  a concerted effort to convert to green energy technologies such as solar, wind, and batteries, will save the world enormous amounts of money.

The Oxford study shows that a transition to nearly 100% clean energy by 2050 results in a lower-cost energy system that provides energy access to more people around the world.  The energy transition is expected to save the world at least $12 trillion compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.

The cost of renewable energy sources has been going down for decades and they are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations.  It is expected that they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications over time.  Accelerating the transition will allow renewables to become cheaper faster.

The study made use of probabilistic models to estimate the costs of various possible future energy systems based on past data.  Even the most pessimistic models showed that scaling up green technologies is likely to drive their costs down so far that they will generate net cost savings and that the faster the transition goes, the more will be saved.  The result will be a cleaner, cheaper, more energy secure future.

**********

Web Links

Decarbonising the energy system by 2050 could save trillions

Photo, posted July 12, 2010, courtesy of Tom Shockey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Law To Tackle Climate Change | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in mid-August is the most comprehensive U.S. legislation addressing climate change ever enacted.   It contains $369 billion in funding for clean energy and electric vehicle tax breaks, domestic manufacturing of batteries and solar panels, and pollution reduction.

The legislation for the most part makes use of carrots rather than sticks to coax American consumers and industry away from reliance on fossil fuels.  Rather than establishing more carbon taxes, mandates, and penalties, the law largely makes use of tax credits to provide incentives for the use of clean energy.

The law provides a large mix of tax breaks intended to bring down the costs of solar, wind, batteries, electric cars, heat pumps, and other clean technology.  For example, consumers will get a $7,500 credit for purchasing many new electric car models and about $4,000 for buying a used vehicle.

On the stick side of the ledger, oil and gas companies that emit methane above certain threshold levels will incur fees that escalate over time.  The law also increases the cost to the oil industry for extracting fossil fuels from public lands.

The act provides $60 billion for overall environmental justice priorities, including $15 billion targeted specifically for low-income and disadvantaged communities. There are many other provisions in the law addressing multiple climate-related issues.

According to three separate analyses by economic modelers, the investments from the Inflation Reduction Act are likely to cut pollution by about 40% below 2005 levels by the year 2030.

**********

Web Links

The US finally has a law to tackle climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2021, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bumblebees And Climate Change | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Pollinators, such as bees and bats, are vital for global food production.  They provide an ecological service that’s necessary for the reproduction of nearly 75% of the world’s flowering plants, including more than two-thirds of global food crops.

Bumblebees are among the most important plant pollinators.  They pollinate many food crops, including apples, tomatoes, blueberries and legumes, as well as countless types of trees, shrubs, and wildflowers.

According to a new study by researchers from Simon Fraser University in Canada, temperature changes have negatively impacted most bumblebee species during the past 120 years.  The research, which was recently published in the journal Biology Letters, found that these changes in temperature had more of a negative impact than other factors such as precipitation or floral resources. 

The research team analyzed existing data on 46 bumblebee species across North America between 1900 and 2020.  The researchers created two occupancy models – one that was focused on time and the other that focused on environmental factors – to see how climate change and land-use variables impacted species’ occupancy.  They found that six bumblebee species decreased through time, 22 increased, and 18 remained stable.

Temperature changes had primarily negative impacts on bumblebees.  In fact, 37 of the 46 species studied exhibited declines or less positive occupancy increases under observed changes in temperature when compared with temperatures remaining constant.  Approximately half of the bumblebee species were negatively impacted by changes in precipitation or floral resources while the other half were positively impacted.

Bumblebee populations are changing as a consequence of climate change. 

**********

Web Links

The American Bumblebee

Climate change negatively impacting bumble bees: Study

Photo, posted July 14, 2019, courtesy of Dmitry Grigoriev via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Dangers Of Thawing Permafrost | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic is a major concern from the standpoint of the potential release of enormous amounts of carbon dioxide trapped in it.  There are nearly 2,000 billion tons of carbon there, which is as much as humanity releases into the atmosphere in 50 years.  But greenhouse gases are not the only danger posed by permafrost thawing.  There are also microbes, unknown viruses, and chemicals that could be very dangerous.

More than 100 diverse microorganisms in Siberia’s deep permafrost have been found to be antibiotic resistant.  The deep permafrost is one of the few environments on Earth that have not been exposed to modern antibiotics.  As the permafrost thaws, its bacteria could mix with meltwater and create new antibiotic-resistant strains.

By-products of fossil fuels – introduced into permafrost environments since the beginning of the industrial revolution – are present.  Metal deposits including arsenic, mercury, and nickel, have been mined for decades and have contaminated large areas.

Now-banned pollutants and chemicals – including DDT – came to the Arctic through the atmosphere and over time have become trapped in the permafrost.

There is now ongoing research further characterizing the microbes frozen in permafrost and providing more precise measurement of emissions hotspots in permafrost regions.  Scientists are increasingly turning to integrated Earth observations from the ground, the air, and space.

There are models that predict the gradual release of emissions from permafrost over the next century.  Other models say it could happen within just a few years.  The worst-case scenario would be utterly catastrophic but none of the scenarios portend anything good.

**********

Web Links

Thawing Permafrost Could Leach Microbes, Chemicals Into Environment

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of Benjamin Jones/USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Winter Olympics | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Waterloo in Canada, climate change will limit where the Winter Olympics can be held as winter changes across the Northern Hemisphere. 

The international research team found that by the end of the century only one of the 21 cities that have previously hosted the Winter Olympics would be able to reliably provide fair and safe conditions for winter sports if global greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically reduced. 

However, if the emissions targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement can be reached, the number of climate-reliable host cities for the Winter Olympics would jump to eight.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, the researchers reviewed historical climate data from the 1920s to today, as well as future climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s.  The researchers also surveyed international athletes and coaches, and found that 89% of them felt that changing weather patterns are already affecting competition conditions. 

The average February daytime temperature of host cities has been steadily increasing.  At the winter games held between the 1920s and 1950s, the average temperature was 32.7°F.  It rose to 37.6°F at games between the 1960s and 1990s, and has spiked to 43.3°F in the games held in the twenty-first century.  The planet is projected to warm another 3.6°F to 7.9°F this century depending on our ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions is critical to ensure that there remain places across the globe to host the Winter Olympics.

**********

Climate change threatens future Winter Olympics

Photo, posted February 21, 2010, courtesy of Michael via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cheaper Electric Cars | Earth Wise

By 1 Comment

The price of the batteries that power electric cars has fallen by about 90% since 2010.  This continuing trend will eventually make EVs less expensive than gas cars.

For many years, researchers have estimated that when battery packs reach the price of $100 per kilowatt-hour of energy storage, electric cars will cost about the same as gasoline-powered vehicles.  In 2021, the average price of lithium-ion battery packs fell to $132 per kilowatt-hour, down 6% from the previous year.  According to analysts, batteries should hit the average of $100 as soon as 2024.

It is not the case that as soon as the $100 level is reached, EVs will abruptly reach cost parity.  Across different manufacturers and vehicle types, the price shift will occur at different rates.  However, by the time batteries reach $60 a kilowatt-hour, EVs will be cheaper than equivalent gasoline models across every vehicle segment.

It is not known exactly when EVs will cost less than gasoline models, but there is little doubt that this point is coming.  We have only been talking about the purchase price of a new vehicle.  When one looks at the total cost of ownership of a vehicle, including fuel, insurance, maintenance, and depreciation, it is a different story.

Because of savings on fuel and maintenance, EVs are already in many if not most cases cheaper to own than gas-powered cars.  The Department of Energy provides an online calculator to help consumers estimate the cost differences between gasoline and electricity.

In any case, the number of electric cars on the market is increasing and the number of gas-powered cars will be shrinking.  Sooner or later, we will all drive electric.

**********

Web Links

Inside Clean Energy: Batteries Got Cheaper in 2021. So How Close Are We to EVs That Cost Less than Gasoline Vehicles?

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

**********

Web Links

In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wild Pigs And The Environment | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

There are millions of wild pigs in the world with the largest numbers in the United States and Australia but significant numbers in South America, Europe, and China.  In the US, there are as many as 9 million feral swine living in 38 states.  A conservative estimate indicates that they cause about $1.5 billion in property and agricultural damage each year in this country.

Researchers in Australia have studied the climate damage wild pigs are causing across five continents.  According to the study, by uprooting carbon trapped in soil, wild pigs are releasing over 5 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is the equivalent of 1.1 million cars.

When soils are disturbed from humans plowing a field, or from wild animals uprooting, carbon is released into the atmosphere.  According to the researchers, wild pigs are just like tractors plowing through fields, turning over soil to find food.

The study used predictive population models coupled with advanced mapping techniques to pinpoint the damage wild pigs are causing.  According to the models, pigs are currently uprooting an area between 14,000 and 47,000 square miles, which is an enormous amount of land.  The effects are not just on the health of the soil and on carbon emissions.  This much damage also threatens biodiversity and food security.

Wild pigs are basically a human-caused problem, being either feral descendants of domestic swine, or hybrids of domestic swine and wild boars.  Wild pigs are prolific and their numbers have been expanding rapidly  Controlling their populations will require cooperation and collaboration across multiple jurisdictions.

**********

Web Links

The climate impact of wild pigs greater than a million cars

Photo, posted July 1, 2017, courtesy of Shiva Shenoy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Soaring Heat And Inner-City Neighborhoods | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The record-breaking heatwaves this summer have exposed the special vulnerability inner cities have to the effects of summer heat.  Climate change has exacerbated and supercharged heatwaves, as was seen in Seattle and Portland in late June.

Urban cores can be 10 degrees or more warmer than the surrounding countryside.  The urban heat island effect is a result of how cities are built, with so much pavement, so many buildings, and not enough trees.  On top of this, decades of disinvestment in neighborhoods where people of color live have left them especially vulnerable to heat as their homes are not able to cope with it.

In New York City, some residents of Hunts Point in the Bronx keep lists of neighbors they check on to help keep the most vulnerable alive during heat waves.  The city has subsidized 74,000 air conditioners for low-income, elderly residents, and is spending millions to plant trees.  In Phoenix, the hottest big city in the country, officials are working to develop new models for cooler public housing and cooling for streets and pedestrian corridors.

A study, published in 2020, looked at the linkage between higher heat island temperatures and past practices of redlining, where home loans and insurance were unavailable to people in neighborhoods of color.  In 94 of 108 communities studied, the formerly redlined neighborhoods had higher surface temperatures.

Cities are confronted with two heat problems:  emergencies that require immediate action to save lives, and long-term issues related to combating soaring temperatures in heat islands strengthened by global warming. In many cases, cities are not prepared for either problem.  Dealing with and adapting to heat is essential to the long-term viability and quality of life in our cities.

**********

Web Links

A Triple Whammy Has Left Many Inner-City Neighborhoods Highly Vulnerable to Soaring Temperatures

Photo, posted May 27, 2014, courtesy of Dan DeLuca via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Gulf Of Mexico Dead Zone | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Every summer, a so-called dead zone forms in the Gulf of Mexico.  It is primarily caused by excess nutrient pollution from human activities in urban and agricultural areas throughout the Mississippi River watershed. 

When these excess nutrients reach the Gulf, they stimulate excess growth of algae, which eventually die and decompose, depleting oxygen as they sink to the bottom.  These low oxygen levels near the Gulf bottom cannot support most marine life.  Animals that are sufficiently mobile – such as fish, shrimp, and crabs – generally swim out of the area.  Those that can’t move away are stressed or killed by the low oxygen.

A team of scientists funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues an annual forecast for the dead zone based upon a suite of models that incorporate river flow and nutrient data. 

The 2021 forecasted area is somewhat smaller than, but close to, the five-year measured average for the dead zone, which is 5,400 square miles, roughly the size of the state of Connecticut.   Each year, these forecasts are reported as comparisons to long-term averages, but the problem is that the long-term average is unacceptable.

The Interagency Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force has set a goal of reducing the size of the dead zone to a five-year average of 1,900 square miles – about a third of the current average.

Large reductions in nutrient loads have been called for in federal and state action plans for nearly 20 years, but clearly these reductions have not yet been sufficient. The Interagency Task Force continues to provide information for managing nutrient loads in the Mississippi River Basin. 

**********

Web Links

Average-sized ‘dead zone’ forecast for Gulf of Mexico

Photo, posted October 6, 2020, courtesy of Christine Warner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Heat-Related Deaths | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to a new study recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, more than one-third of the world’s heat-related deaths each year are attributable to human-induced climate change. 

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK  and the University of Bern in Switzerland analyzed data from 732 locations in 43 countries.  They took observed temperatures and compared them with 10 computer models simulating a world without climate change.  By applying this technique to their data, the researchers were able to calculate for the first time the actual contribution of anthropogenic climate change in increasing mortality risks due to heat.

The research team found that 37% of all heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018 were attributable to the warming of the planet due to human activities.  This percentage was highest in South America, Central America, and South-East Asia. 

In the United States, 35% of heat deaths were found to be a result of climate change.  New York had the most heat-related deaths at 141, and Honolulu had the highest percentage of heat deaths attributable to climate change at 82%.

But scientists caution that this is only a small portion of the climate’s overall impact. Many more people die from other extreme weather amplified by climate change, including severe storms, floods, and droughts.  Heat-related death figures will grow exponentially as temperatures rise.

According to the research team, the study’s findings highlight the need to adopt stronger climate change mitigation strategies, and to implement interventions to protect people from the adverse consequences of heat exposure.    

**********

Web Links

Global warming already responsible for one in three heat-related deaths

Photo, posted April 14, 2017, courtesy of Karim Bench via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Farming Productivity | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

The future potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on global agricultural systems has been well studied, but how human-caused climate change has already affected the agricultural sector is not as well understood.  But a new study led by researchers at Cornell University and supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the National Science Foundation examined this issue. 

Despite important agricultural breakthroughs in technology, fertilizer use and global trade during the past 60 years, it turns out that the climate crisis is already eroding farm productivity.  According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, global farming productivity is 21% lower than it could have been without climate change.  This is the equivalent of losing approximately seven years of farm productivity increases since the 1960s. 

The researchers developed a model linking annual changes in weather and productivity with output from the latest climate models over six decades to quantify the effect of anthropogenic climate change on what economists call “total factor productivity.” This measure captures the overall productivity of the agricultural sector. 

The research team reviewed 200 variations of the model, but the results remained largely consistent:  anthropogenic climate change is already slowing down global food production.  The researchers say the historical impacts of climate change have been larger in naturally warmer climates, like in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.   

Climate change is not some distant problem to solve in the future.  It is already having an impact on the planet and it needs to be addressed now.

**********

Web Links

Climate change cut global farming productivity 21% since 1960s

Photo, posted October 2, 2013, courtesy of the United Soybean Board via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Policy Moves on Electric Cars | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

In recent times, there have been several significant events affecting the transition to electric vehicles.  The new administration has made aggressive moves toward fighting climate change.  Wall Street investors have placed more value on Tesla stock than that of GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford combined.  China, the world’s largest car market, recently mandated that most new cars must be powered by electricity within 15 years.

Against this background, the CEO of General Motors announced in late January that the company will aim to sell only zero-emission cars and trucks by 2035.

This announcement took the rest of the auto industry by surprise.  In the past, the industry tended to present a united message on emissions and other policy issues.  This time around, GM has stepped out in front of the issue.

GM has already committed to spending $27 billion to introduce 30 electric vehicle models by 2025 and is building a plant in Ohio to make batteries for those cars and trucks.

A key driver in the GM decision, no doubt, was an executive order signed by President Biden on his first day of office.  The order directed the Environmental Protection Agency to immediately begin developing tough new tailpipe pollution regulations, designed to reduce the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Even before the change in administration, five other major automakers – BMW, Ford, Honda, Volkswagen, and Volvo – had already legally bound themselves to tougher fuel economy standards in a deal with California.  Those companies committed to an average fuel economy of 51 miles per gallon in 2026.

While no other large automaker has set a specific target date for selling only electric vehicles, many of them are moving in that direction.  The rapid growth of Tesla is an indicator of where the auto industry is heading.

**********

Web Links

G.M. Announcement Shakes Up U.S. Automakers’ Transition to Electric Cars

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Reduced Air Travel And Weather Forecasts | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

There have been countless stories about the major and minor changes in the world caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.  A few of those changes, such as reductions in pollution and traffic, have been positive.  Most have been decidedly negative.

One of the stranger things that has happened is that the pandemic has affected the quality of weather forecasting by sharply reducing the amount of atmospheric data routinely collected by commercial airliners.

It turns out that atmospheric observations from passenger and cargo flights are among the most important data used in weather forecasting models.  These observations are made by instruments aboard thousands of airliners, mostly based in North America and Europe.  The observation program has been in place for decades.  The data is transmitted in real time to forecasting organizations around the world, including the National Weather Service.  About 40 airlines participate in the program, which has equipment aboard about 3,500 aircraft.  Here in the US, Delta, United, American, and Southwest Airlines participate, as do UPS and FedEx.

During the first few months of the pandemic, air traffic declined by 75% or more worldwide.  As a result, atmospheric observations dropped by the same percentage.  A government research study showed that when weather forecasting models receive less data on temperature, wind, and humidity from aircraft, the accuracy of forecasts was reduced.

The amount of data from aircraft has increased in recent months as air travel has picked up to roughly 50% of pre-pandemic levels.  So, the observation program is on the mend.  Nonetheless, impaired weather forecasting is just another unexpected result of the global pandemic.

**********

Web Links

Slump in Air Travel Hindered Weather Forecasting, Study Shows

Photo, posted July 15, 2017, courtesy of Daria Nepriakhina via Flickr. Photo by Photo by Daria / epicantus.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Community Solar With Storage In New York | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Community solar allows members of a community to share the benefits of solar power even if they cannot or prefer not to install solar panels on their own property.  There are several models for how community solar works, but all of them allow members to benefit from solar power being generated by an offsite solar array by effectively allocating a portion of its output to them.  In any event, community solar can save money on electric bills and allow people to make use of renewable energy for their needs.

A next step in the evolution of a decentralized energy system is incorporating energy storage into community solar projects.  The first one of these in New York State has now been completed in Yorktown Heights in Westchester County.  The project consists of 557kW of rooftop solar in the form of nearly 1,500 solar panels paired with 490kW of four-hour Tesla Powerpack battery energy storage.  The system is expected to provide 150 participants with approximately 10% savings on their monthly electric bills over 25 years, as well as providing power to 12 Tesla electric vehicle charging stations.

The project was funded by NYSERDA, under its Retail Energy Storage Incentive program, which currently includes 50 community solar-storage paired projects across New York State that are expected to be installed in the next two to three years.

New York has been actively promoting community projects in support of goals announced by Governor Andrew Cuomo to install 6,000MW of solar in the state by 2025 and 3,000MW of energy storage by 2030.

**********

Web Links

First community solar-storage project completed in New York

Photo, posted June 21, 2017, courtesy of Franck Michel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)