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Approaching critical global temperature thresholds

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The Paris Climate Agreement is a global treaty adopted in 2015 to combat climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while striving to keep it below 1.5°C.  But according to recent research, the planet is quickly approaching these critical thresholds. 

An international research team led by scientists from Colorado State University, Stanford University, and ETH-Zurich in Switzerland combined insights from 10 global climate models, and – with the help of artificial intelligence – found that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously thought.

In fact, the researchers found that most land regions will likely surpass the critical 1.5°C threshold by 2040 or even earlier.  Additionally, several regions are on track to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by 2060.  Regions including Central Europe, the Mediterranean, South Asia, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach these thresholds faster. 

The research team relied on transfer learning, a cutting-edge machine learning technique that leverages pre-trained models to tackle new, related tasks.

The research, which was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.  Of those 34 regions, 31 of them are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040, and 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

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AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected

Photo, posted February 23, 2011, courtesy of 2011 CIAT / Neil Palmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Unexplained heat wave hotspots

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2023 and 2024 have been the hottest years since records have been kept.  But above and beyond the upward march of average temperatures around the globe, there has been the phenomenon of distinct regions across the globe experiencing repeated heatwaves that are so extreme that they cannot be accounted for in any models of global warming.

A new study by Columbia University’s Climate School has provided the first worldwide map of such regions, which have emerged on every continent except Antarctica.  Heatwaves in these regions have killed thousands of people, withered crops and forests, and triggered devastating wildfires.

These recent regional-scale record-breaking temperature extremes have raised questions about whether current climate models can provide adequate estimates of the relationship between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks.

Some of these regional events in recent years include a nine-day heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in June 2021 that broke daily records in some places by 54 degrees Fahrenheit.  Across Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, and other countries, the hottest days of the year are warming twice as fast as the summer mean temperatures. 

There is yet little understanding of the phenomenon.  Some theories related to destabilization of the jet stream don’t really explain all the temperature extremes observed.  But regardless of the underlying causes, the health impacts of these heat waves are severe, as are the effects on agriculture, vegetation, and infrastructure.  Society is not built to quickly adapt to them.

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Unexplained Heat Wave ‘Hotspots’ Are Popping Up Across the Globe

Photo, posted August 16, 2022, courtesy of Alisdare Hickson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

EV growth and oil demand

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There has been lots of talk recently about the transition to electric vehicles sputtering out.  Several automakers have delayed their EV programs citing reduced demand for the vehicles and lack of profitability.  In the bigger picture, the auto industry as a whole is in a rough patch as rising interest rates and other factors have reduced car buying.

Despite all this doom and gloom talk, sales of electric vehicles will hit an all-time high this year.  Adoption of EVs is accelerating more quickly than many people expected and government policies in China, the United States, and Europe have had a significant impact on vehicle sales.  In China, 37% of new cars sold last year were electric.  The country hit its 2025 target three years early and this year the figure could hit 45%.

But even as electric car sales rapidly increase, oil demand has continued to climb, reaching 100 million barrels a day, slightly more than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.  The International Energy Agency expects that oil demand will peak before the end of this decade, but oil consumption could remain strong for decades unless there is further policy action encouraging the transition away from it.

Some experts say that the IEA’s models don’t take into account how quickly the world is changing.  New emission rules are expected to speed the adoption of EVs and plug-in hybrids.  In addition, falling battery costs are making the economics of electric vehicles increasingly attractive.  If EV adoption accelerates more rapidly than these models predict, then oil consumption could drop much more quickly.

However, the oil industry is deeply embedded in modern life and is not likely to fade away without a fight.

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EV Sales Are Taking Off. Why Is Oil Demand Still Climbing?

Photo, posted September 9, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Offshore wind and the wake effect

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Electricity demand in the U.S. continues to grow and, in the summer, homes and businesses crank up their air conditioning which drives demand even further.  Many East Coast cities are banking on offshore wind projects that are underway in the Atlantic Ocean to help meet that growing demand.  The first offshore turbines are now producing power off the coasts of Massachusetts and New York.

Electric power utilities need to know how much power they can get from offshore wind farms, and this is not that easy to predict.  Wind is variable, so there is some built-in uncertainty.  But there is also a phenomenon known as the wake effect to contend with.

When wind passes through a series of giant turbines, the ones in front extract some energy from the wind and, as a result, the wind slows down and becomes more turbulent behind the turbines.  So, the downstream turbines get slower wind and may produce less power.

A study by the University of Colorado has modeled this phenomenon for planned wind farms in the Atlantic Coast region and has found that power output could be reduced by over 30%.  Researchers are installing weather monitors and radar sensors in islands off the New England coast to better understand the behavior of the wind in the area and improve prediction models.

The New England grid covers Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Even with the wake effect, offshore wind is predicted to be able to provide 60% of the electricity needs of the grid, but it is important to be able to accurately predict what it can produce.

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How much energy can offshore wind farms in the US produce? New study sheds light

Photo, posted August 31, 2022, courtesy of Nina Ali via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate change and Antarctic meteorites

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Researchers from Switzerland and Belgium have investigated the effects of the warming climate on access to meteorites in Antarctica.  Meteorites are of great scientific interest because they provide unique information about the makeup of our solar system.  Of all the meteorites that people have found, 62.6% of them were found in Antarctica.

Why is this?  It is not because more meteorites land in Antarctica.  Statistically, they can land anywhere on earth.  Most end up in the ocean since the world’s oceans cover 70% of the planet. 

Meteorites in Antarctica are more visible because environmental conditions are favorable for their preservation and their visibility.  The arid and cold Antarctic environment helps to preserve meteorites and the lack of rocks and contrast with ice makes spotting meteorites much easier.  The flow of ice sheets tends to concentrate meteorites in so-called meteorite stranding zones where the dark colored space rocks can be easily detected.

There are an estimated 300,000 to 800,000 meteorites in Antarctica.  When meteorites warm up, they can transfer heat to the ice, which locally melts.  Eventually, the meteorites sink beneath the surface.  A recent study using satellite imagery, climate model projections, and AI predicts that for every tenth of a degree of increase in global air temperature, an average of 9,000 meteorites in Antarctica will disappear from the surface and will no longer be able to be found. 

The study estimates that a quarter of Antarctic meteorites will be lost to glacial melt by 2050.  If warming continues to accelerate, closer to three-quarters of the meteorites on the continent will be lost. 

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Climate change threatens Antarctic meteorites

Photo, posted April 21, 2005, courtesy of Kevin Walsh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

What did the record warmth of 2023 mean?

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2023 was the warmest year in the 174 years of global temperature record-keeping.  According to some analyses, it may have been the warmest year in the past 125,000 years.

There were incredible heatwaves in Arizona and Argentina.  There were relentless wildfires across Canada.  The wintertime ice coverage in the seas surrounding Antarctica was at unprecedented lows

The global temperatures in 2023 did not just beat prior records; they smashed them.  Every month from June through November set all-time monthly temperature records. The US Northeast saw springlike temperatures at the end of the year.  The high temperature in Buffalo, New York on Christmas Day was 58 degrees.

Climate scientists have been predicting the warming trend that has been ongoing over the past several decades.  Indeed, computational models for 2023 called for a warm year.  Various models had a variety of projected temperatures and 2023’s heat was still broadly within the range of what was projected, although certainly at the high end.

The question is whether last year was an indicator that the planet’s warming is accelerating faster than we expect or that it just was a particularly warm year because of cyclical factors such as the El Niño that appeared last spring.

One theory that is being explored is that various types of industrial pollution have previously actually served to cool the atmosphere over time and as those sources are reduced for public health reasons, the warming effects of greenhouse gases have accelerated.

Currently, there is no consensus about why it seems to be getting warmer even faster than many climate models predict.  What there is no doubt about is that it is not a good thing.

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Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Cryopreserving Corals | Earth Wise

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Recent climate models estimate that if the effects of climate change are not mitigated soon enough, 95% of the world’s corals could die by the mid 2030s.  Given the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, this is an increasingly likely outcome.  Coral reefs are estimated to have a $10 trillion economic value apart from their essential role in marine ecosystems.

Researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa have demonstrated a successful technique for cryopreserving entire coral fragments; in other words, preserving coral using cold temperatures and successfully reviving them.

Existing coral cryopreservation techniques rely on freezing sperm and larvae, which can only be collected during spawning events, which occur only a few days each year for coral species.  This makes it logistically very challenging for researchers and conservationists.

The Hawaiian researchers focused on a process called isochoric vitrification, which is a method of freezing with liquid nitrogen that prevents the formation of ice crystals.  They tested the technique with thumbnail-sized fragments of coral, freezing them in small aluminum chambers which restrict the growth of ice crystals that would otherwise damage delicate polyp tissues.  Once the chambers were warmed, the fragments were transferred to seawater and allowed to recover.  They found that the revived corals behaved the same as those that were never cooled.

The process holds great promise to conserve the biodiversity and genetic diversity of coral.  If the process can be scaled up, it may be possible to preserve as many species of coral as possible by 2030, when it may no longer be viable for them to survive in the warming and acidifying oceans.

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Cryopreservation breakthrough could save coral reefs

Photo, posted June 2, 2023, courtesy of USFWS – Pacific Region via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

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Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average.  In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events.  The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea.   Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature.  On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm.  Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict.  The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes.   There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

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Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How Much Plastic Is Really In The Ocean? | Earth Wise

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The world has produced more than 6 billion tons of plastic to date and much of that has become waste that has not been recycled, incinerated, or otherwise properly contained.  A great deal of it has ended up in the oceans of the world.

Researchers at Kyushu University in Japan have done an analysis to assess just how much plastic has ended up in the ocean.  According to the study, nearly 28 million tons of plastic waste has entered the ocean and nearly two-thirds of that cannot be monitored.

Gli scienziati hanno dimostrato che i ricordi sono sparsi nelle connessioni neurali del corpo. Il sistema limbico svolge un ruolo importante nel funzionamento della memoria. Si trova sul Dosi di vareniclina lato interno delle regioni temporali, dove si trova l’ipotalamo. Quest’ultimo raggruppa il processo di pensiero.

Furthermore, the Kyushu analysis suggests that those 28 million tons are just the tip of the plastic waste iceberg.  Their findings are that there may be another 600 million tons of mismanaged plastic waste trapped on land – nearly 10% of all the plastic ever produced.

The study created models that simulate the processes by which plastics find their way into the ocean, get transported, and fragment into pieces.  According to their models, large plastics and smaller pieces of microplastics floating on the ocean surface each account for only about 3% of all ocean plastics.  Microplastics on beaches account for another 3%, and 23% of ocean plastic waste is larger plastic litter on the world’s shores.

These things account for only about a third of ocean plastic.  The rest of it is in locations that are impossible to monitor such as heavy plastics that settle on the seafloor because they are denser than seawater.  Half of plastic products made today are made from these heavy plastics.

Plastic pollution is not just a big problem; evidently it is a bigger problem than we thought.

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Visible ocean plastics just the tip of the iceberg

Photo, posted February 28, 2010, courtesy of Kevin Krejci via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

City Greenery And Carbon Emissions | Earth Wise

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According to the United Nations, more than half of the world’s population currently lives in cities.  Projections show that the combination of urbanization and global population growth could add another 2.5 billion people to cities by 2050. 

Unsurprisingly, cities are a major contributor to climate change.  According to U.N. estimates, cities are responsible for 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with transportation and buildings being among the largest contributors. 

According to a new study of vegetation across New York City and some adjoining urban areas, photosynthesis by trees and grasses on many summer days absorbs all the carbon emissions produced by cars, trucks and buses, and then some.  In fact, on many summer days, the total carbon uptake in the region equaled up to 40% of a summer afternoon’s total emissions from all sources in the City. The results, which were recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, further highlights the critical importance of urban greenery.

Most previous studies have analyzed the carbon uptake of vegetation by looking at the contiguous tracts of green spaces, but this only comprises about 10% of metro areas.  Using detailed aerial radar imagery of New York City that mapped vegetation in unprecedented 6-inch grids, the researchers were able to include the other 90% of the metro area typically left out in most models. 

Since carbon uptake by vegetation only occurs during the growing season, green spaces in cities situated in warmer climates likely play a larger role in carbon uptake. 

As city populations swell around the world, every bit of urban greenery is critical in the fight against climate change. 

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New York City’s greenery absorbs a surprising amount of its carbon emissions

68% of the world population projected to live in urban areas by 2050, says UN

Photo, posted October 5, 2009, courtesy of David Orban via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Onshore Algae Farms | Earth Wise

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According to some estimates, food production will need to increase by 50% by 2050 in order to feed a projected global population of 10 billion people.  How can this be achieved?  

One solution, according to researchers at Cornell University, could be to grow nutritious and protein-dense microalgae in seawater-fed onshore aquaculture systems.

According to the research, which was recently published in the journal Oceanography, growing algae onshore could close a projected gap in society’s future nutritional demands while also improving environmental sustainability.  

Climate change, environmental degradation, limited arable land, and lack of freshwater will all constrain the amount of food that can be grown in the coming decades.  Wild fish stocks are already heavily exploited, and there are limits to how much finfish, shellfish, and seaweed aquaculture can be produced in the coastal ocean. 

As a result, the researchers argue for expanding algae production in onshore aquaculture facilities.  The research team’s models found that the best locations for onshore algae farming facilities are along the coasts of the Global South, including desert environments. 

Algae can grow as much as ten times faster than traditional crops.  Algae can also be produced in a manner that is more efficient than agriculture in its use of nutrients.  In addition to its high protein content, algae also provides nutrients lacking in vegetarian diets, such as essential amino acids, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acids.

Algae could become the breadbasket of the Global South.

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Onshore algae farms could feed the world sustainably

Photo, posted June 17, 2011, courtesy of NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global Stilling | Earth Wise

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During the summer of 2021, much of Europe experienced a “wind drought” – wind speeds in many places were about 15% below average.  In the UK in particular, winds were unusually calm and wind energy production was dramatically reduced.

Globally, wind speeds have been dropping by about 2.3% per decade since the 1970s.  In 2019, however, global average windspeeds actually increased by about 6%.  The question is whether a trend of slowing winds – so-called global stilling – is associated with climate change or is just natural variability in action.

Wind results from uneven temperatures in air masses.   Much of the world’s wind comes from the difference between the cold air at the poles and the warm air at the tropics.  Because the Arctic is warming much faster than the tropics, it is possible that winds will continue to decline around the world. 

Another factor people cite is the increase in surface roughness.  The number and size of urban buildings continues to increase, which acts as a drag on winds.

Some models predict that wind speeds will decrease over much of the western U.S. and East Coast, but the central U.S. will see an increase.  Experts do not all agree about what is happening with global winds.  Many believe that the observed changes to date have been within the range of variability.  Furthermore, some places have been windier than usual.

All of this really matters for many reasons.  Europe is increasingly dependent upon wind power as an alternative to fossil fuels.  A 10% drop in wind speed results in a 30% drop in energy generation.   Whatever their cause may be, wind droughts cannot be ignored.

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Global ‘Stilling’: Is Climate Change Slowing Down the Wind?

Photo, posted June 28, 2008, courtesy of Patrick Finnegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Decarbonizing Could Save Trillions | Earth Wise

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Scientists have long been calling for a transition to clean energy to prevent catastrophic impacts of climate change.  For much of that time, many people and, specifically, many of those in power, were skeptical of the need to do something about the warming climate.  But even as the facts about the changing climate became increasingly undeniable, there continued to be fears that the transition to clean energy sources would be unacceptably expensive and harmful to the economy.

A recent study published by Oxford University shows that the opposite is true:  a concerted effort to convert to green energy technologies such as solar, wind, and batteries, will save the world enormous amounts of money.

The Oxford study shows that a transition to nearly 100% clean energy by 2050 results in a lower-cost energy system that provides energy access to more people around the world.  The energy transition is expected to save the world at least $12 trillion compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.

The cost of renewable energy sources has been going down for decades and they are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations.  It is expected that they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications over time.  Accelerating the transition will allow renewables to become cheaper faster.

The study made use of probabilistic models to estimate the costs of various possible future energy systems based on past data.  Even the most pessimistic models showed that scaling up green technologies is likely to drive their costs down so far that they will generate net cost savings and that the faster the transition goes, the more will be saved.  The result will be a cleaner, cheaper, more energy secure future.

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Decarbonising the energy system by 2050 could save trillions

Photo, posted July 12, 2010, courtesy of Tom Shockey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Law To Tackle Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in mid-August is the most comprehensive U.S. legislation addressing climate change ever enacted.   It contains $369 billion in funding for clean energy and electric vehicle tax breaks, domestic manufacturing of batteries and solar panels, and pollution reduction.

The legislation for the most part makes use of carrots rather than sticks to coax American consumers and industry away from reliance on fossil fuels.  Rather than establishing more carbon taxes, mandates, and penalties, the law largely makes use of tax credits to provide incentives for the use of clean energy.

The law provides a large mix of tax breaks intended to bring down the costs of solar, wind, batteries, electric cars, heat pumps, and other clean technology.  For example, consumers will get a $7,500 credit for purchasing many new electric car models and about $4,000 for buying a used vehicle.

On the stick side of the ledger, oil and gas companies that emit methane above certain threshold levels will incur fees that escalate over time.  The law also increases the cost to the oil industry for extracting fossil fuels from public lands.

The act provides $60 billion for overall environmental justice priorities, including $15 billion targeted specifically for low-income and disadvantaged communities. There are many other provisions in the law addressing multiple climate-related issues.

According to three separate analyses by economic modelers, the investments from the Inflation Reduction Act are likely to cut pollution by about 40% below 2005 levels by the year 2030.

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The US finally has a law to tackle climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2021, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bumblebees And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Pollinators, such as bees and bats, are vital for global food production.  They provide an ecological service that’s necessary for the reproduction of nearly 75% of the world’s flowering plants, including more than two-thirds of global food crops.

Bumblebees are among the most important plant pollinators.  They pollinate many food crops, including apples, tomatoes, blueberries and legumes, as well as countless types of trees, shrubs, and wildflowers.

According to a new study by researchers from Simon Fraser University in Canada, temperature changes have negatively impacted most bumblebee species during the past 120 years.  The research, which was recently published in the journal Biology Letters, found that these changes in temperature had more of a negative impact than other factors such as precipitation or floral resources. 

The research team analyzed existing data on 46 bumblebee species across North America between 1900 and 2020.  The researchers created two occupancy models – one that was focused on time and the other that focused on environmental factors – to see how climate change and land-use variables impacted species’ occupancy.  They found that six bumblebee species decreased through time, 22 increased, and 18 remained stable.

Temperature changes had primarily negative impacts on bumblebees.  In fact, 37 of the 46 species studied exhibited declines or less positive occupancy increases under observed changes in temperature when compared with temperatures remaining constant.  Approximately half of the bumblebee species were negatively impacted by changes in precipitation or floral resources while the other half were positively impacted.

Bumblebee populations are changing as a consequence of climate change. 

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The American Bumblebee

Climate change negatively impacting bumble bees: Study

Photo, posted July 14, 2019, courtesy of Dmitry Grigoriev via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Dangers Of Thawing Permafrost | Earth Wise

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The thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic is a major concern from the standpoint of the potential release of enormous amounts of carbon dioxide trapped in it.  There are nearly 2,000 billion tons of carbon there, which is as much as humanity releases into the atmosphere in 50 years.  But greenhouse gases are not the only danger posed by permafrost thawing.  There are also microbes, unknown viruses, and chemicals that could be very dangerous.

More than 100 diverse microorganisms in Siberia’s deep permafrost have been found to be antibiotic resistant.  The deep permafrost is one of the few environments on Earth that have not been exposed to modern antibiotics.  As the permafrost thaws, its bacteria could mix with meltwater and create new antibiotic-resistant strains.

By-products of fossil fuels – introduced into permafrost environments since the beginning of the industrial revolution – are present.  Metal deposits including arsenic, mercury, and nickel, have been mined for decades and have contaminated large areas.

Now-banned pollutants and chemicals – including DDT – came to the Arctic through the atmosphere and over time have become trapped in the permafrost.

There is now ongoing research further characterizing the microbes frozen in permafrost and providing more precise measurement of emissions hotspots in permafrost regions.  Scientists are increasingly turning to integrated Earth observations from the ground, the air, and space.

There are models that predict the gradual release of emissions from permafrost over the next century.  Other models say it could happen within just a few years.  The worst-case scenario would be utterly catastrophic but none of the scenarios portend anything good.

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Thawing Permafrost Could Leach Microbes, Chemicals Into Environment

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of Benjamin Jones/USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Winter Olympics | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Waterloo in Canada, climate change will limit where the Winter Olympics can be held as winter changes across the Northern Hemisphere. 

The international research team found that by the end of the century only one of the 21 cities that have previously hosted the Winter Olympics would be able to reliably provide fair and safe conditions for winter sports if global greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically reduced. 

However, if the emissions targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement can be reached, the number of climate-reliable host cities for the Winter Olympics would jump to eight.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, the researchers reviewed historical climate data from the 1920s to today, as well as future climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s.  The researchers also surveyed international athletes and coaches, and found that 89% of them felt that changing weather patterns are already affecting competition conditions. 

The average February daytime temperature of host cities has been steadily increasing.  At the winter games held between the 1920s and 1950s, the average temperature was 32.7°F.  It rose to 37.6°F at games between the 1960s and 1990s, and has spiked to 43.3°F in the games held in the twenty-first century.  The planet is projected to warm another 3.6°F to 7.9°F this century depending on our ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions is critical to ensure that there remain places across the globe to host the Winter Olympics.

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Climate change threatens future Winter Olympics

Photo, posted February 21, 2010, courtesy of Michael via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cheaper Electric Cars | Earth Wise

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The price of the batteries that power electric cars has fallen by about 90% since 2010.  This continuing trend will eventually make EVs less expensive than gas cars.

For many years, researchers have estimated that when battery packs reach the price of $100 per kilowatt-hour of energy storage, electric cars will cost about the same as gasoline-powered vehicles.  In 2021, the average price of lithium-ion battery packs fell to $132 per kilowatt-hour, down 6% from the previous year.  According to analysts, batteries should hit the average of $100 as soon as 2024.

It is not the case that as soon as the $100 level is reached, EVs will abruptly reach cost parity.  Across different manufacturers and vehicle types, the price shift will occur at different rates.  However, by the time batteries reach $60 a kilowatt-hour, EVs will be cheaper than equivalent gasoline models across every vehicle segment.

It is not known exactly when EVs will cost less than gasoline models, but there is little doubt that this point is coming.  We have only been talking about the purchase price of a new vehicle.  When one looks at the total cost of ownership of a vehicle, including fuel, insurance, maintenance, and depreciation, it is a different story.

Because of savings on fuel and maintenance, EVs are already in many if not most cases cheaper to own than gas-powered cars.  The Department of Energy provides an online calculator to help consumers estimate the cost differences between gasoline and electricity.

In any case, the number of electric cars on the market is increasing and the number of gas-powered cars will be shrinking.  Sooner or later, we will all drive electric.

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Inside Clean Energy: Batteries Got Cheaper in 2021. So How Close Are We to EVs That Cost Less than Gasoline Vehicles?

Photo, posted July 29, 2017, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

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In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wild Pigs And The Environment | Earth Wise

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There are millions of wild pigs in the world with the largest numbers in the United States and Australia but significant numbers in South America, Europe, and China.  In the US, there are as many as 9 million feral swine living in 38 states.  A conservative estimate indicates that they cause about $1.5 billion in property and agricultural damage each year in this country.

Researchers in Australia have studied the climate damage wild pigs are causing across five continents.  According to the study, by uprooting carbon trapped in soil, wild pigs are releasing over 5 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is the equivalent of 1.1 million cars.

When soils are disturbed from humans plowing a field, or from wild animals uprooting, carbon is released into the atmosphere.  According to the researchers, wild pigs are just like tractors plowing through fields, turning over soil to find food.

The study used predictive population models coupled with advanced mapping techniques to pinpoint the damage wild pigs are causing.  According to the models, pigs are currently uprooting an area between 14,000 and 47,000 square miles, which is an enormous amount of land.  The effects are not just on the health of the soil and on carbon emissions.  This much damage also threatens biodiversity and food security.

Wild pigs are basically a human-caused problem, being either feral descendants of domestic swine, or hybrids of domestic swine and wild boars.  Wild pigs are prolific and their numbers have been expanding rapidly  Controlling their populations will require cooperation and collaboration across multiple jurisdictions.

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The climate impact of wild pigs greater than a million cars

Photo, posted July 1, 2017, courtesy of Shiva Shenoy via Flickr.

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