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Climate Change And Insurance

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While there are still some people who remain dubious about the reality of climate change, insurance companies are not among them.  And, in fact, insurers are warning that climate change could make coverage for ordinary people unaffordable.

Munich Reinsurance, the world’s largest reinsurance firm, blamed global warming for $24 billion in losses from California’s recent wildfires.  Such costs could soon be widely felt as premium rises are already under discussion with insurance companies having clients in vulnerable parts of the state.

With the risk from wildfires, flooding, storms and hail increasing, the only sustainable option for the insurance industry is to adjust risk prices accordingly.  Ultimately, this may become a social issue.  Affordability of insurance is critical because if rates go up too much, many people on low and average incomes in some regions may no longer be able to buy insurance.

The great majority of California’s 20 worst forest fires since the 1930’s has occurred since the year 2000 driven by abnormally high summer temperatures and persistent drought. The reinsurance giant analyzed decades of data with climate models and concluded that the fires are likely driven by climate change.

It isn’t just wildfires.  Insurance premiums are also being adjusted in regions facing an increased threat from severe convective storms whose energy and severity are driven by global warming.  These include parts of Germany, Austria, France, southwest Italy, and the U.S. Midwest.

Linking extreme weather events to climate change is a bit like attributing the performance of a steroid-using athlete to drug use.  The connections are clearer in patterns than in individual disasters.  But the pattern these days is pretty clear.

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Climate Change Could Make Insurance Unaffordable for Most People

Photo, posted June 12, 2013, courtesy of Jeff Head via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

How Much CO2 Can The Oceans Hold?

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The carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere doesn’t necessarily stay there.  As part of the natural carbon cycle, much of it goes into plants, soil and, very significantly, the ocean.  In fact, the world’s oceans are a sink for human-generated carbon dioxide without which the extent of global climate change would be far worse.

Oceans takes up CO2 in two steps: first the CO2 dissolves in the surface water.  Then, the ocean’s overturning circulation distributes it.  Currents and mixing processes transport the dissolved CO2 from the surface deep into the ocean’s interior, where it accumulates over time.

A long-standing priority for climate researchers is to determine how much of the CO2 we produce is being absorbed by the oceans and, ultimately, how much can they hold?

An international team of scientists has recently provided some answers.  As reported in Science, the researchers have determined that the oceans have taken up from the atmosphere as much as 37 billion tons of human-made carbon between 1994 and 2007.  This figure corresponds to nearly a third of all the anthropogenic CO2 emitted during that time.

Furthermore, they found that the percentage of CO2 taken up by the oceans has remained relatively stable compared to the preceding 200 years even as the absolute quantity has increased.  So, evidently, the oceans’ capacity for carbon dioxide has not yet been saturated.

That’s the good news.  The bad news is that putting all that CO2 into the oceans has a steep price:  the dissolved CO2 acidifies the water.  The consequences for a wide range of marine life including coral reefs are serious and getting worse.  We need to drastically reduce carbon emissions.

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Ocean sink for human-made carbon dioxide measured

Photo, posted November 5, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Shrinking Arctic Glaciers

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The glaciers on Baffin Island, located in Canada’s northeastern Arctic, have been shrinking as the climate warms.  The melting, receding glaciers have exposed fragments of ancient plants that had frozen in the places where they once grew.  New research has shown that these spots have not seen the light of day for at least 40,000 years.

The entire planet has been warming since humanity started flooding the atmosphere with greenhouse gases at the start of the Industrial Revolution, but the effects are not uniform across the globe.  Some regions – like the Arctic – are seeing temperature rises that are greater and faster than anywhere else in the world.  As a result, glaciers in the Arctic have been melting away at rates never before observed in modern human history.

Researchers at the University of Colorado performed radiocarbon dating experiments in order to find out when the last time was that the Arctic was as warm as today.   There have been natural variations in Arctic temperatures caused by the complicated way the Earth wobbles on its axis.  For example, 10,000 years ago the northern latitudes pointed at the sun more directly during the summer than they do now, providing about 9% more sunshine during the summer.

The results of the study showed that the newly-uncovered plants had died at least 40,000 years earlier, indicating that the glaciers had not melted back to today’s size for at least that long.  Global measurements indicate that the planet as a whole has not been as warm as it is today for about 115,000 years, back then again a result of the orientation of the Earth.

Well, the Earth hasn’t wobbled recently.  The Arctic is melting because we are dumping massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

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These Arctic glaciers are smaller than ever before in human history

Photo, posted September 1, 2010, courtesy of Doryce S. via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Ice Melt In Greenland

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A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences warns that Greenland’s ice Is melting much faster than previously thought.  The ice loss rapidly accelerated around 2002-2003 and by 2012 the annual loss was nearly four times the rate in 2003.

Most of the new ice melt is in southwest Greenland, a part of the island that wasn’t known to be losing ice that rapidly and is not where most of the large glaciers are in Greenland.  The loss is coming from the land-fast ice sheet itself.

Data from NASA satellites and GPS stations scattered around Greenland’s coast shows that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland lost approximately 280 billion tons of ice per year.  That is enough melt to cover the entire states of Florida and New York hip deep in meltwater, as well as drowning Washington, D.C. and one or two other small states.

Global warming of just 1 degree Celsius is the main driver behind this massive meltdown of ice.  The temperature rise coupled with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation causes rapid surface melt of the ice sheet during summers.  The Oscillation is a natural, irregular change in atmospheric pressure that brings warm, sunny weather to the western side of Greenland during its negative phase.

The Greenland ice sheet is 2 miles thick in some places and contains enough ice to raise sea levels 23 feet if it all melted.  The melting Greenland ice is already slowing the Gulf Stream, which is wreaking havoc with European weather.  If we don’t get a handle on global temperature rise, things are only going to get worse.

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Greenland’s ice is melting four times faster than thought—what it means

Photo, posted April 21, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wildfire Pollution

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California’s record-breaking wildfires this past season have been an unmitigated disaster with respect to loss of life, property, impact on human health, and in multiple other ways.  And as if all of that was not bad enough, the impact on carbon emissions into the atmosphere was equally catastrophic.  The wildfires were deadly and cost billions of dollars but were also terrible for the environment and for the public’s health.

According to estimates from the U.S. Department of the Interior, the California wildfires released emissions equivalent to about 68 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  That is equal to the emissions from generating one year’s worth of electricity in the state, or about 15% of the total annual emissions in the state of California.

It is a vicious circle in which the changes to the climate that have lengthened the fire season and shortened the precipitation season are creating additional contributions to the warming of the climate.

Over the past century, California has warmed by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit.  That extra-warmed air sucks water out of plants and soils, resulting in trees, shrubs, and rolling grasslands that are dry and primed to burn. That vegetation-drying effect compounds with every additional degree of warming.  Plants lose their water more efficiently as temperatures get higher.

The result is that wildfires are increasing in size both in California and across the western United States. Fire experts at Columbia University estimate that since the 1980s, the warming climate has contributed to an extra 10 million acres of burning in western forests – an area about the size of Massachusetts and Connecticut combined.

It’s a bad situation that is getting worse.

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California’s 2018 Wildfires Have Emitted A Year’s Worth of Power Pollution

Photo, posted October 11, 2017, courtesy of Bob Dass via Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Glacial Engineering

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As the world struggles with trying to limit carbon emissions and slow the pace of global warming, there is increasing analysis of various forms of geoengineering.   Often, these consist of nearly unthinkable efforts to intervene in the climate on a global scale with unpredictable and possibly catastrophic consequences.

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Rapid Response To Climate Change More Important Than Ever

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued a new report emphasizing the importance of taking rapid action to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and examining the consequences of allowing temperatures to rise 2 degrees instead.

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Increasing Antarctic Ice Loss

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Antarctica’s ice sheets contain enough frozen water to raise sea levels globally about 190 feet.  Ice in the Antarctic is melting at a record-breaking rate and subsequent sea rises could have catastrophic consequences around the world.  So, it is no surprise that scientists have been closely tracking ice loss in recent decades to understand both the current and future impacts of climate change.

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Hurricanes Are Slowing Down

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According to a new study recently published in the scientific journal Nature, some hurricanes are moving slower and spending more time over land, which is leading to catastrophic rainfall and flooding. The speed at which hurricanes track along their paths – known as translational speed – can play a major role in a storm’s damage and devastation.  17

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Cold Weather In A Warming Climate

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The climate is warming.  The average global temperature is going up year after year, bringing about significant changes to weather around the world.  But the fact is that these changes don’t always lead to warmer weather.  And ordinary variations in local weather can also go in either direction.

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Geoengineering And Developing Countries

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There are some mind-boggling schemes being discussed to mitigate the global warming caused by greenhouse gases.  These include placing giant mirrors in orbit to reflect sunlight before it reaches Earth and launching millions of tons of sulfur into the stratosphere to simulate the effects of a major volcanic eruption.

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rising Again

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If we want to avoid drastic global warming this century, we need to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions over time.   For the previous three years, emissions had been holding steady, but last year, global emissions from the use of coal, oil and natural gas increased by 1.4%.  According to the International Energy Agency, this unfortunate new data should serve as a strong warning that we need to increase our efforts to combat climate change.

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FEMA And Climate Change

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In 2017, the United States spent a record $306 billion on weather and climate-related disasters, making it the costliest and most damaging year on record. The wildfires out west, Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Harvey, the Minnesota hailstorm, and the midwest drought are just some of the costly examples.  Officials say that already-bloated figure will increase further in the coming years as temperatures rise.

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