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Climate Change Is Not Natural

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It has been the overwhelming consensus of the scientific community for a long time that human activity and other external factors are responsible for the continuing rise in global temperature.  Despite this widespread agreement, there have been those who argue that natural ocean cycles might be influencing global warming over the course of multiple decades.

A new study, published in the Journal of Climate, provides an answer to the question of how much influence natural cycles might have, and that answer is very little to none.

The study looked at observed ocean and land temperature data since 1850 and, apart from human-induced factors such as greenhouse gas concentrations, took into account other occurrences such as volcanic eruptions, solar activity, and air pollution peaks.  The findings demonstrated that slow-acting ocean cycles do not explain the long-term changes in global temperatures.

Based on the study, the researchers can state with confidence that human factors like greenhouse gas emissions and particulate pollution, along with year-to-year changes caused by natural phenomena like volcanic eruptions or El Niño, are sufficient to explain virtually all the long-term changes in temperature.  The idea that the oceans could have been driving the climate either in a colder or warmer direction for multiple decades in the past and therefore will do so in the future is unlikely to be correct.

A number of previous studies have compared flawed observations with flawed modeling results to claim that naturally-occurring ocean cycles have played a large role in global temperatures.  The new study shows that such cycles have little influence on the climate.  Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is really what we need to do.

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Global temperature change attributable to external factors, confirms new study

Photo, posted November 13, 2007, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Mass Timber

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Mass timber is a type of construction typically characterized by the use of large solid wood panels for wall, floor, and roof construction. Large structural panels, posts, and beams glued under pressure or nailed together in layers, with the wood’s grain stacked perpendicular for extra strength – are prized as innovative building materials, superior to concrete and steel in many ways.  Mass timber has pushed the perceived boundaries of wood construction, leading to building heights and spans that traditionally have required concrete, steel or masonry for structural support. The move to mass timber has become something of a construction revolution and many see it as a significant part of a climate change solution. 

The question is just how green is mass timber construction?  How sustainable is it in terms of the forest management, logging, manufacture and transportation of wood products involved?

A number of environmental groups are very skeptical.  There is not yet comprehensive data on the subject.  Only recently have interdisciplinary scientists begun to study the potential climate impacts of the wide use of mass timber.

Despite these questions, the mass timber industry is taking off.  Demand for mass timber posts and beams has led to new sawmills opening in the U.S. Northwest and many new jobs for loggers.

The aesthetics and economics of mass timber are both very attractive compared with conventional large-scale construction materials.  The real unknowns relate to the environmental impact of its widespread use.  If that can take place in a sustainable and environmentally conscientious way, it would be very important in the fight against climate change.  Carbon dioxide emissions from the building industry account for more than a third of global emissions, primarily from the concrete and steel industries.

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As Mass Timber Takes Off, How Green Is This New Building Material?

Photo, posted March 19, 2018, courtesy of Freres Lumber Co via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

How Much CO2 Can The Oceans Hold?

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The carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere doesn’t necessarily stay there.  As part of the natural carbon cycle, much of it goes into plants, soil and, very significantly, the ocean.  In fact, the world’s oceans are a sink for human-generated carbon dioxide without which the extent of global climate change would be far worse.

Oceans takes up CO2 in two steps: first the CO2 dissolves in the surface water.  Then, the ocean’s overturning circulation distributes it.  Currents and mixing processes transport the dissolved CO2 from the surface deep into the ocean’s interior, where it accumulates over time.

A long-standing priority for climate researchers is to determine how much of the CO2 we produce is being absorbed by the oceans and, ultimately, how much can they hold?

An international team of scientists has recently provided some answers.  As reported in Science, the researchers have determined that the oceans have taken up from the atmosphere as much as 37 billion tons of human-made carbon between 1994 and 2007.  This figure corresponds to nearly a third of all the anthropogenic CO2 emitted during that time.

Furthermore, they found that the percentage of CO2 taken up by the oceans has remained relatively stable compared to the preceding 200 years even as the absolute quantity has increased.  So, evidently, the oceans’ capacity for carbon dioxide has not yet been saturated.

That’s the good news.  The bad news is that putting all that CO2 into the oceans has a steep price:  the dissolved CO2 acidifies the water.  The consequences for a wide range of marine life including coral reefs are serious and getting worse.  We need to drastically reduce carbon emissions.

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Ocean sink for human-made carbon dioxide measured

Photo, posted November 5, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Growing Rocks To Store Carbon

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The US Geological Survey recently published a comprehensive review of geological carbon storage in sedimentary rocks through carbon mineralization.   That is the process by which carbon dioxide becomes a solid mineral, such as a form of carbonate.  Certain rocks undergo a chemical reaction when exposed to carbon dioxide and turn into different minerals as a result.

The idea is to use carbon mineralization as a way to permanently store carbon dioxide that has been captured from power plant emissions, other industrial activities, or even directly from the atmosphere.

Two basic approaches are injecting the CO2 deep underground or exposing it to crushed rocks at the surface.  The two types of rock best suited for mineralization through injection are basalt and various ultramafic rocks.  Pilot studies have shown that injection into basalt can lead to mineralization in under two years.

Exposing carbon dioxide to crushed rock at the surface generally makes use of crushed mining waste.  Mineralization can be much faster in this case because there is more surface area on the crushed rock where mineralization occurs.  (However, the quantities of rock available at the surface are much less than what exists deep underground).

Like all carbon capture and storage approaches, the key consideration is cost.  The USGS study estimates that underground injection would cost around $30 per metric ton of CO2.  The crushed rock approach might only cost $8 per metric ton, but that assumes the crushed rock is already available.  If it must be newly mined, the costs would obviously go up significantly.  To put this into perspective, a typical car produces around 4 metric tons of CO22 per year.  So, it would cost somewhere between $30 and $120 a year to eliminate the emissions from one car.  Perhaps that is a price we need to pay until we ditch gasoline cars.

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How Growing Rocks Can Help Reduce Carbon Emissions

Photo, posted October 17, 2011, courtesy of Glen Bledsoe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Making Coal To Fight Climate Change

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Coal is the most harmful fossil fuel for the environment and, furthermore, for human health.  Its use has stubbornly persisted because it is so plentiful and, therefore, cheap.  As a result, a big part of efforts to fight climate change is finding a way to remove the carbon dioxide dumped into the atmosphere by the combustion of coal.

Researchers at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia have developed a remarkable technology that in effect reverses the process that has led to soaring CO2 levels in the atmosphere.  They have found a way to pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and turn it into coal, after which it can be stored cheaply and safely underground.

Most previous carbon capture and storage technologies have focused on compressing carbon dioxide gas into a liquid form and then pumping it into rock formations.  Such techniques are rather expensive, require lots of energy, and pose risks that the liquid CO2 could escape from its underground storage sites.  More recently, research on solid metal catalysts has led to the possibility of turning CO2 into solid carbon, but most of these reactions require very high temperatures and use a lot of energy.

The new technique developed at RMIT uses a new class of catalysts based on metal alloys.  With a small jolt of electricity applied at room temperature, CO2 can be converted into solid carbon – basically, coal.

If this technique can be industrialized economically, it would be like turning back the clock by taking carbon dioxide that entered the atmosphere by the combustion of coal and turning it back into coal and putting it back underground.  It seems like excellent environmental justice.

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Scientists Turn Atmospheric CO2 Into Coal

Photo, posted March 16, 2015, courtesy of Will Fisher via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Changing Face of Electricity

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The New York Times recently published an article on how electricity is made in the United States on a state-by-state basis and how it has been changing over the past two decades.  Two conclusions to draw are that the mix of energy sources is wildly different from one state to another and that the mix has been changing rather dramatically in many places.

Overall, the past two decades have seen the dramatic rise in the use of natural gas and a dramatic drop in the use of coal.  Coal plants used to account for over half of the electricity produced in the U.S. at the turn of the 21st century.  Now natural gas has passed coal as the largest energy source at roughly 1/3 of the total generated.

Switching from coal to natural gas is a good thing since modern gas power plants emit only about half the carbon dioxide as modern coal plants.  But industry spin about “clean gas” is just spin.  Gas is not really clean; it is just cleaner than coal.  So, having the electric grid powered by gas is not really going to solve our emissions problems.

That being said, there are still states that make nearly all their electricity with coal.  Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, and West Virginia are on that list.  Meanwhile, Delaware, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nevada, and Rhode Island are powered mostly by gas. Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Vermont rely heavily on hydropower.

Newer renewables like solar and wind are starting to make major contributions in many states.  Wind contributes only 6% nationwide but is much bigger in places like Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and Texas. 

The face of electricity continues to change.

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How Does Your State Make Electricity?

Photo, posted March 5, 2010, courtesy of Tennessee Valley Authority via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

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Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow.  The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii.  Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production.  The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems.  In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 .  The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year.  The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record.  The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm.  With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

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Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019

Photo, posted March 18, 2006, courtesy of Darin Marshall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Indonesian Deforestation

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Deforestation is defined as the intentional destruction of trees and other vegetation without reforesting or allowing the forest to regenerate itself. 

In Indonesia, industrial agriculture, primarily for the production of palm oil, is a major driver of deforestation.  But, according to researchers at Duke University, its impact has diminished  proportionately in recent years as other natural and human causes have emerged. Their peer-reviewed findings were recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

According to the study’s lead author, large-scale plantations were responsible for more than half of Indonesia’s deforestation in the late 2000s, peaking between 2008-2010 when an average of 1.5 million acres of forest was lost annually.  The expansion of the massive plantations was responsible for 57% of the forest loss. Between 2014-2016, an average of more than 2 million acres of forest was lost annually, but plantation expansion only accounted for 25% of this figure.  While the overall rate of deforestation continued to grow, other factors were responsible for most of it.

Conversions of forests to grasslands rose sharply in 2015 and 2016 when El Nino caused severe droughts and forest fires. Small-scale farming, often overshadowed by industrial agriculture, was also found to play a bigger role, accounting for 25% of all forest loss. 

Indonesia has experienced some of the highest rates of deforestation.  Its forests absorb and store vast amounts of climate-warming carbon dioxide, help prevent erosion and flooding, and provide habitat to thousands of species.  Understanding the varied causes of Indonesian deforestation should help conservationists and policymakers better address the problem.

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Palm oil not the only driver of forest loss in Indonesia

Photo, posted March 26, 2018, courtesy of Achmad Rabin Taim via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hacking Photosynthesis

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There is an enzyme known as RuBisCo that is involved in carbon fixation, the process plants use to convert carbon dioxide into sugar molecules.  The RuBisCo molecule is inside the leaves of most plants and is probably the most abundant protein in the world.

RuBisCo picks up carbon dioxide from the air and uses energy from the sun to turn the carbon into sugar molecules.  This process of photosynthesis is pretty much the foundation of life on Earth.

Wonderful as it is, the process is not perfect.  RuBisCo is not very selective in grabbing molecules from the air.  It picks up oxygen as well as CO2 and it produces a toxic compound when it does that.

Plants operate a whole other complicated chemical process to deal with this toxic byproduct and uses up a lot of energy along the way, leaving less energy for making leaves or food that we can eat.

A research program at the University of Illinois called Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency (or RIPE) has been trying to correct this problem; they have been trying to hack photosynthesis.  And they may well have succeeded.

Using genetic modification on tobacco plants, they have shut down the existing detoxification process and set up a much more efficient new one.  The result is super plants that grow faster and up to 40% bigger.

The next step is to get it to work on plants that people actually rely upon for food, like tomatoes, soybeans and black-eyed peas (which are a staple food crop in sub-Saharan Africa where food is scarce.)

It will be years before we know if the process can really produce more food and be safe, but it may end up leading to a major increase in crop productivity.

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Scientists Have ‘Hacked Photosynthesis’ In Search Of More Productive Crops

Photo, posted June 10, 2013, courtesy of Boon Hong Seto via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Droughts And Hydropower

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Recent droughts in several western states have led to well-publicized problems including wildfires, loss of trees, and damage to crops.  A lesser-known impact of drought conditions has been increases in emissions of carbon dioxide and harmful air pollutants from power generation.

When hydropower runs low in a drought, western states tend to ramp up power generation – and therefore emissions – from fossil fuels.   According to a new study from Stanford University, droughts caused about 10 percent of the average annual carbon dioxide emissions from power generation in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington between 2001 and 2015.

Water is used in electricity generation both directly for hydroelectric power and indirectly for cooling in thermoelectric power plants.  When water for hydropower comes up short because of drought conditions, natural gas or coal-fired power plants are brought online to pick up the slack.

These drought-induced shifts in energy sources led to an estimated 100 million tons of carbon dioxide across 11 western states between 2001 and 2015.  That is the equivalent of adding 1.4 million vehicles to the region’s roadways.  California, whose legislature has mandated that the state be carbon-free by 2045, contributed about half of this total.  Washington, which is considering a similar mandate, contributed nearly a quarter of the total.

Western states in recent years have suffered intense droughts that scientists expect to become more common as global warming continues to intensify.   The new study indicates that in regions where clean, reliable hydropower has been an important part of the energy mix, it will be increasingly necessary to provide clean backup energy sources in order to meet emission reduction targets.

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Droughts boost emissions as hydropower dries up

Photo, posted March 7, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cloning Ancient Redwoods

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During the 19th and 20th centuries, many of the world’s largest and oldest tress were cut down for their lumber.   Some of these coast redwoods were 3,000 years old and measured 35 feet in diameter.

Today, giant stumps of these ancient redwoods dot the landscape from Oregon to northern California and are a remnant of the old-growth forest that once stretched across much of the Pacific Northwest.

An organization called the Archangel Ancient Tree Archive is dedicated to reestablishing ancient redwood forests to help combat climate change.  Coastal redwoods are not only huge but can grow an average of 10 feet a year.  One of these enormous trees can sequester 250 tons of carbon dioxide over its lifetime, more than 200 times the amount for an average tree.

While many experts thought that the giant stumps were lifeless, arborists at Archangel collected DNA from the stumps of five giant coast redwoods, all larger than the largest tree living today.  They then used this genetic material to grow dozens of saplings, which are clones of the ancient trees, in a process that takes about two-and-a-half years.

To date, the Archangel Ancient Tree Archive has planted nearly 100 of these saplings in the Eden Project garden in Cornwall, England, a couple of hundred in Oregon, and most recently, has planted 75 in the Presidio National Park in San Francisco.

According to arborists at the nonprofit organization, these saplings have extraordinary potential to purify our air, water, and soil for generations to come.  Their hopes are that the new San Francisco ‘super grove’ will be allowed to grow unmolested by manmade or natural disasters and thus propagate forever.

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Arborists Have Cloned Ancient Redwoods From Their Massive Stumps

Photo, posted April 8, 2013, courtesy of Michael Balint via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Can We Remove Enough CO2 From The Air?

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As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to set new records and the effects of climate change grow stronger, humanity has continued to procrastinate on reducing emissions.  As a result, it is increasingly clear that any strategy to avoid runaway climate change will have to involve the use of “negative emissions”- techniques or technologies that actually remove CO2 from the air.

There are both low-tech and high-tech methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and both are likely to be needed. 

On the low-tech side, afforestation (planting trees where there were none before), reforestation, changes in forest management, rebuilding the carbon backbone in agricultural soils, and the use of energy from waste biomass are all ways to take carbon out of the atmosphere.

On the high-tech side, direct air capture technologies that take CO2 out of the air and store it in the ground are making rapid progress.   Right now, they are still very expensive,but that is changing.  There is an analogy to wind and solar technology. Not very long ago, both of those technologies were quite expensive but now their costs have plummeted to the point where they are often the cheapest way to make electricity.  With sufficient development effort and deployment, direct air capture technology could become quite affordable.

Some people advocate geoengineering as a solution for climate change.  While removing carbon dioxide amounts to tackling the root cause of the warming climate,geoengineering would address the problem by changing the climate again in some other way.  It is at best an extremely dangerous approach.

Removing CO2 using a combination of natural and man-made techniques is an important part of mitigating the effects of climate change.

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Climate Solutions: Is It Feasible to Remove Enough CO2 from the Air?

Photo courtesy of Climeworks. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Capturing CO2 From The Air

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It is increasingly clear that the rate at which carbon dioxide emissions are being reduced is not sufficient to prevent dire consequences of climate change.  It appears that it will be necessary to try to actually remove carbon dioxide from the air.  Such actions are termed “negative emissions.”

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A Battery That Eats Carbon Dioxide

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Fossil fuel-based power plants are increasingly considering the use of carbon capture technologies as a way to reduce emissions.  The biggest challenge to the wide-spread adoption of such technology is its energy cost, which of course equates to economic cost.  Present-day power plants equipped with carbon capture systems can use up to 30% of the electricity they generate just to power the capture, release, and storage of carbon dioxide.

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The Earliest Overshoot Day Ever

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Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humankind’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what our planet can regenerate in that year.  The deficit for the remainder of the year means we are liquidating stocks of ecological resources and accumulating waste, primarily carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

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Carbon And North American Forests

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Researchers have for the first time calculated the capacity of North American forests to sequester carbon.  The detailed analysis by UC Santa Cruz and collaborators in China and Arizona considers two key factors:  the natural process of forest growth and regeneration, and effects brought about by climate change.

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