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Weather Disasters On The Rise | Earth Wise

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It seems like the news is always filled with stories about storms, heatwaves, drought, and forest fires.  This is because these things are happening with unprecedented frequency.

According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, weather disasters have become five times more common since 1970, in large part a result of climate change.  Extreme weather, climate, and water events are increasing and are becoming more frequent and severe in many parts of the world.

Between 1970 and 2019, there were more than 11,000 reported disasters attributed to weather, resulting in over 2 million deaths and $3.64 trillion dollars in economic losses.

Storms and floods were the most prevalent disasters.  The five costliest disasters ever are all hurricanes that have struck the United States over the past 20 years.

Droughts accounted for the greatest number of human losses, with severe droughts in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Sudan responsible for 650,000 deaths.

About the only positive news in the report was that even as disasters have grown more prevalent, deaths have declined, dropping from about 50,000 a year in the 1970s to fewer than 20,000 in the 2010s.  This is a result of better early warning systems.  We have gotten better at saving lives.  But early warning systems are woefully insufficient in much of the developing world, where more than 90% of disaster-related deaths occur.

Of the 77 weather-related disasters that struck between 2015 and 2017, 62 show the influence of human-caused climate change.  With the pace of climate change now accelerating, there are likely to be more frequent catastrophic disasters in the years to come.

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As the Planet Has Warmed, Weather Disasters Have Grown Fivefold, Analysis Shows

Photo, posted September 16, 2021, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

July Was A Scorcher | Earth Wise

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July 2021 has the unfortunate distinction as being the world’s hottest month ever recorded according to global data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.   July is typically the warmest month of the year, but this July was the warmest month of any year on record.

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 62.07 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 1.67 degrees above the 20th century average.  This was the highest monthly average since records began 142 years ago.  It broke the previous record set in July 2016 and tied in 2019 and 2020.

The Northern Hemisphere was 2.77 degrees above average.  Asia had its hottest July on record.  Europe had its second hottest July on record.  Places like Africa, Australia, and New Zealand all had top-ten warmest Julys.

Other aspects of the changing climate included the observation that Arctic sea ice coverage for July was the fourth-smallest in the 43-year record.  Interestingly, Antarctic sea ice extent was actually above average in July.  Global tropic cyclone activity this year so far is above normal for the number of named storms.  In the Atlantic basin, the formation of the storm Elsa on July 1 was the earliest date for a 5th named storm.

It remains very likely that 2021 will rank among the 10 hottest years on record.  Extreme heat is a reflection on the long-term climate changes that were outlined recently in a major report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  These latest global observations add to the disturbing and disruptive path that the changing climate has set for the world.

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It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

Photo, posted July 15, 2021, courtesy of Lori Iverson/National Interagency Fire Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Offsetting Reef Acidification | Earth Wise

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The Great Barrier Reef is the world’s largest coral reef system.  It is composed of nearly 3,000 individual reefs and 900 islands covering an area of more than 130,000 square miles.  In recent times, it has been under unprecedented stress from ocean warming, tropical cyclones, sediment and nutrient runoff, marine pests, and ocean acidification.

Among these stressors, ocean acidification is one of the most significant threats to the long-term viability of the reef because acidification affects the ability of corals to rebuild and repair their structures and recover from bleaching events.

New research from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, studied the impact of artificial ocean alkalinization on the acidity of the waters in the Great Barrier Reef.  The idea is to inject a source of alkalinity into the ocean, an accelerated version of a natural process that occurs from the chemical weathering of minerals under the sea.

The results of the study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, are that injecting an alkalinizing agent into the ocean along the length of the Reef would make it possible to offset ten years’ worth of ocean acidification based on the present rate of human-generated carbon emissions.  Such an effort could use an abundant mineral resource like olivine, which is already mined near the Great Barrier Reef.  Releasing 30,000 tons a day of the alkalinizing agent from an existing shipping line from a bulk carrier would reach almost the whole of the Great Barrier Reef.

In response to the declining health of coral reef ecosystems, many different intervention concepts and technologies are under consideration.  The goal of these would be to minimize environmental pressures and enhance the resilience of the ecosystems.

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Projected acidification of the Great Barrier Reef could be offset by ten years

Photo, posted August 4, 2019, courtesy of Larry Koester via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Radar Satellites And Hazard Mitigation | Earth Wise

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Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.  Some of the effects of global climate change include melting glaciers, warming oceans, intensifying storms, and rising seas.

Another consequence of global climate change is natural disasters like floods and wildfires.  Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires and increasing the odds of record-breaking floods in many parts of the United States and all around the world.

As a result, scientists in Australia have turned to technology for better assistance in keeping tabs on these climate change-driven natural disasters.  Researchers from Curtin University in Perth, Australia have found that satellites can improve the ability to detect, monitor, prepare for, and withstand natural disasters, including floods, wildfires, and earthquakes.

The research team used Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, which was acquired by the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 satellite.  The researchers also used data acquired by other satellites to evaluate these Australia-specific case studies.

According to the researchers, SAR data provides remote monitoring capabilities of Earth’s surface around the clock and in all weather, which is something that traditional optical Earth Observation (EO) imagery cannot do. The ability to function through fog, clouds, rainfall, and smoke is what makes SAR so valuable.

The research team says that the data can be used to improve how people track and respond to natural disasters, by precisely mapping topography, tracking movements of the ground, and mapping damage to infrastructure. 

As the climate continues to change, the ability to mitigate hazards like floods and wildfires will be increasingly important. 

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Radar satellites can better protect against bushfires and floods

Photo, posted May 11, 2007, courtesy of Bert Knottenbeld via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saving The Giant Sequoia | Earth Wise

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Giant sequoia trees are some of the most remarkable living things on earth.  They can live up to 3,000 years.  The tallest specimens tower over 300 feet, but it is their girth that really sets them apart.  They are usually 20 feet in diameter, and some are up to 35 feet across at the widest.  The largest tree in the world by volume is the General Sherman tree, which has a volume of 52,508 cubic feet. At 2,100 years old, it weighs 2.7 million pounds and is not only the largest living tree, but also the largest living organism by volume on the planet.

Giant sequoias are incredibly hardy.  To have survived thousands of years, the oldest of these trees have endured hungry animals, diseases, fires, snowstorms, El Niño events, years-long droughts, and the efforts of loggers during the 19th and 20th centuries.

In February, unusually high winds knocked down 15 giant sequoias in Yosemite National Park.  While sequoias are amazingly adapted to their narrow range in California’s Western Sierras, it appears as though climate change is altering their habitat faster than the species can migrate or adapt.  Shorter cold seasons have meant more rain instead of snow, leading to floods and mudslides in the winter.  Fires are more likely with less snowpack.  Hotter, drier summers put sequoias under greater stress.

Forest managers work to preserve existing groves through fire mitigation, supplementary water, and careful stewardship of young trees in existing groves.  If these efforts are successful through the ensuing decades, climate change may be just one more thing the sequoias outlasted.  But at least some conservationists are now considering planting a new generation of sequoias in colder, nearby habitats. 

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To Save Giant Sequoia Trees, Maybe It’s Time to Plant Backups

Photo, posted June 8, 2008, courtesy of Joi Ito via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Coronavirus | Earth Wise

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It’s no secret that our planet is heating up.  Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased human-caused (or anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions.  Some of the effects of global climate change include thawing permafrost, warming oceans, intensifying storms and wildfires, and rising seas.     

In southern China, the surge in greenhouse gas emissions over the past century has driven the growth of forest habitat favored by bats, leading to the creation of a hotspot for bat-borne coronaviruses in that region. 

According to a new study by researchers from the University of Cambridge in the UK, climate change could have played a direct role in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study, which was recently published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, revealed large-scale changes in the type of vegetation in the southern Chinese Yunnan province over the last century, as well as in the adjacent regions of Myanmar and Laos.  Increases in temperature, sunlight, atmospheric carbon dioxide and other climatic changes have transformed natural habitats from tropical shrubland to tropical savannah and deciduous woodland.  These changes have created ideal habitats for many bat species that predominantly live in forests.

According to the study, an additional 40 bat species moved into Yunnan province over the past century.  This is the region where genetic data suggests SARS-CoV-2 may have arisen.  Each bat species harbors an average of 2.7 coronaviruses. 

The researchers urge policymakers to acknowledge the role that climate change plays in outbreaks of viral diseases and to work together to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. 

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Climate change may have driven the emergence of SARS-CoV-2

Photo, posted July 21, 2013, courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Ann Froschauer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Not All Eggs In One Basket | Earth Wise

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Sea turtles lay their eggs in burrows on sandy beaches.  Many species lay their eggs on the exact same beach year after year.  On average, sea turtles lay over 100 eggs in a nest and produce between 2 and 8 nests per season.

Animals that produce such large numbers of eggs have this reproductive strategy because so few survive to adulthood.   Sea turtle eggs and hatchlings face numerous threats including powerful storms, poachers, marauding birds, and more.  Estimates are that only one in thousand sea turtle eggs leads to an adult turtle.

A recent study by the University of South Florida looked at the reproductive strategy of loggerhead sea turtles nesting on Keewaydin Island off the southwestern Gulf coast of Florida.  The researchers found that individual females lay numerous clutches of eggs in locations as much as six miles apart from each other to increase the chance that some of their offspring will survive.

As the saying goes, nesting loggerhead turtles don’t lay all their eggs in one basket.  The researchers compare the turtles’ strategy to investing in a mutual fund.  The female turtles divide their resources among many stocks rather than investing everything in a single stock.

During their 50-year lifetime, a single female loggerhead will produce over 4,000 eggs and scatter them at 40 different sites.  This strategy helps reduce the risk of complete reproductive failure caused by hurricanes and thunderstorms that could wash out or flood all their clutches.  The combination of unpredictable patterns of nests over time and space results in nearly two-thirds of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings making it into the Gulf of Mexico.  The species still faces significant challenges but it is doing its part to try to survive.

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Not all in one basket: Loggerhead sea turtles lay eggs in multiple locations to improve reproductive success

Photo, posted January 27, 2012, courtesy of Jeroen Looye via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Caribbean Coral Reefs Under Siege | Earth Wise

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Coral reefs around the world have been suffering from warming seas and increasing acidification, both a result of human activity.  In the Caribbean, a new threat has emerged in the form of invasive algae.

New research published in Scientific Reports explains how an aggressive, crust-like alga is overgrowing shallow reefs and taking the place of coral that was damaged by powerful storms that exposed areas of the undersea rock where corals grew. 

Researchers from Oxford University, the Carnegie Institution, and California State University Northridge have been studying these peyssonnelid algal crusts, or PACs, for several years in the U.S. Virgin Islands.  The PAC has been out-competing coral larvae for surface space and then growing over the existing reef architecture, greatly damaging delicate reef ecosystems.

New corals actually prefer to settle on crusty surfaces created by a different type of algae called crustose algae, or CCA.  CCA acts as guideposts for coral larvae by producing biochemical signals as part of a microbial community that entice baby coral to affix itself.

In contrast, the destructive PAC algae exclude coral settlement. The researchers determined that the microbial community associated with PAC algae is deployed to deter grazing from fish and other marine creatures.  Unfortunately, it also deters coral.

Fragile coral ecosystems are already under assault by environmental pollution and global warming.  Now, in the aftermath of powerful hurricanes like Irma and Maria, algal crusts are taking over reef communities and posing an existential threat to Caribbean corals.

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An unusual microbiome characterises a spatially-aggressive crustose alga rapidly overgrowing shallow Caribbean reefs

Photo, posted January 11, 2015, courtesy of Falco Ermert via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Changing Climate Is Changing Insurance

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As the climate changes, wildfires get bigger and more destructive and hurricanes and powerful storms are more frequent and damaging.  In places where these things are occurring, it is getting harder and more expensive for many homeowners to get insurance.  The affordability of home insurance in the face of climate change has become a huge issue in many states.

In California, the number of homeowners who got non-renewal notices from their insurance companies rose by 6% between 2017 and 2018.  In areas directly affected by wildfires between 2015 and 2017, that number jumped by 10%. Similar things have happened in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, where hurricanes and flooding have caused extensive damage.  Because of this, many homeowners have been forced to turn to bare-bone plans such as the California Fair Access to Insurance Plan, which can cost two or three times as much as normal insurance policies.

According to a 2019 survey of insurance companies, more than half of insurance regulators said that climate change was likely to have a high impact or an extremely high impact on the availability of insurance coverage and the assumptions used for underwriting.  In the past, governments have been able to mandate coverage in certain areas or even provide coverage themselves in some cases.  As the occurrence of climate-related damage becomes increasingly frequent, homeowners have to face up to a grim reality.

The challenges of dealing with wildfires, floods, powerful storms, and the like are significant enough for people who live in high-risk areas.  Increasingly, home insurance in these places is becoming much more expensive, harder to find, and is worth less.

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As Climate Impacts Worsen, Homeowners Struggle to Find Affordable Insurance

Photo, posted September 1, 2020, courtesy of The National Guard via Flickr.

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Expensive And Dangerous Storms | Earth Wise

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Severe storms are getting more and more common.  Early in July, the United States experienced its 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year – the earliest this has happened.  It also marks 2020 as the sixth consecutive year with at least 10 such extreme weather events, which is also a record.  With the country struggling with the effects of a global pandemic, extreme weather is pretty much the last thing we need.

This year’s 10 storms have primarily consisted of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail.  Seven out of the 10 storms were in the South or Southeast.  An Easter Sunday outbreak in that region saw 190 tornadoes and 36 people were killed that day.

Since 1980, the US has averaged nearly 7 billion-dollar weather disasters per year.  But the last five years have seen nearly 14 severe storms on average.  The way things are going this year, there will probably be more than that number.

This year’s growing total does not include the looming hurricane season, which is widely predicted to be more active than usual.  Because so many places in the South are still recovering from earlier disasters, they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of an active hurricane season.

Meanwhile, much of the country is suffering from drought conditions, making wildfires a major concern.  Recent years have seen deadly and destructive wildfires in many places, notably in California two years ago.  Between hurricanes and wildfires, the prospects are alarming for what could turn out to be a disastrous year for expensive and dangerous severe weather.

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US hits 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year — at a record pace

Photo, posted March 3, 2020, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Dam Failures Likely | Earth Wise

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Two dams in Central Michigan were breached by rain-swollen floodwaters in May and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents and prompted officials to warn of life-threatening danger from a flooded chemical complex and a toxic waste cleanup site.  Engineers say that most dams in the U.S. were designed many decades ago – in some cases, a century ago – and are not suited to a warming world with ever stronger storms.

The dams in Michigan gave way for the same reason behind most dam failures:  they were overwhelmed by water, in this case by five inches of rain falling over two days after earlier storms had saturated the ground and swollen rivers.

It can’t be proven whether this specific set of events was triggered by climate change, but global warming is definitely causing some regions to become wetter and is increasing the frequency of extreme storms.  And these trends are expected to continue as the world continues to warm.

All of this puts more of the 91,500 dams in the U.S. at greater risk of failing.  The American Society of Civil Engineers, in its latest report card on infrastructure issued in 2017, gave the nation’s dams a “D” grade.

Historically, dams have been designed based on past weather history to predict the magnitude of the maximum potential flood that a dam would have to withstand.  There was no expectation that future weather patterns might be very different.  Infrastructure designers will clearly need to change their practices.

For existing dams, operational changes might be called for, such as reducing water levels in anticipation of more extreme storms.  Upgrades might include changing spillway designs to accommodate larger water volumes over a longer time period.

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‘Expect More’: Climate Change Raises Risk of Dam Failures

Photo courtesy of Eye in the Sky/Youtube.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Keeping Charleston Dry | Earth Wise

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Charleston, South Carolina is visited by millions of tourists each year.  The town is a glimpse into the past, showcasing antebellum mansions, row houses, historic African American churches and scenic harbor views from a Civil War-era promenade.

Charleston is also visited more and more by water from rising seas and increasingly powerful storms.  The city is essentially drowning in slow motion and may soon face an existential threat to its survival.

Charleston has a harbor and three rivers and water from all these sources leaks in at every bend and curve, fills streets, disrupts businesses, and rushes into homes during storms.  Million-dollar antebellum mansions, built on spongy marsh and old tidal creeks, flood repeatedly.

City officials have endorsed a plan by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to wall off the historic downtown with an 8-mile-long seawall that would cost nearly $2 billion.  The proposed barricade is just one of many proposed projects to build seawalls, surge gates, levees, and other barriers to defend U.S. coastal cities in an era of rising seas and climate-fueled floods and storms.  A proposed flood wall in Miami would cost federal taxpayers $8 billion.

Researchers generally agree that sea levels are likely to rise by at least 3 feet by the end of the century.  Some experts believe the rise will be much greater.  So, a key question is whether these barriers will actually keep out the water.  Critics of many of the proposed solutions contend that they are doomed to fail.

Flooding has caused nearly $1 trillion worth of damage along the East and Gulf coasts over the past 40 years.  And things are almost certain to get worse in Charleston and other coastal cities.

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Fortress Charleston: Will Walling Off the City Hold Back the Waters?

Photo, posted October 7, 2015, courtesy of Jeff Turner via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Boutique Hotels For Birds | Earth Wise

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The changing Arctic climate has had a drastic effect on its seabirds.  In fact, seabirds worldwide are in crisis, with global populations plummeting nearly 70% over the past 70 years as a result of climate change, over-fishing, habitat loss, and other human impacts on their environment.

Above the Arctic circle in Norway, seabird behavior has changed dramatically.  Black-legged kittiwakes – which are the most seafaring member of the gull family – used to nest in cliffs over the ocean and seldom ventured inland.  But in recent years, that has changed.  Because of a warming ocean, increased storminess and other changes that are decimating chick populations in their normal habitat, the birds have been setting up housekeeping in places like shopping centers and office buildings in Tromsø and other towns along Norway’s north coast.

Tromsø, Hammerfest and other towns at the very north end of Norway have become very popular with tourists seeking the Northern Lights and wanting to see glaciers before they disappear.  The booming tourism has been put on hold for the moment as it has elsewhere, but when it returns, the regions growing hotels and shopping areas are facing a problem.

The birds taking up residence on these buildings are unpleasant neighbors.  They are especially noisy during the breeding season and people are having to put up nets or spikes on buildings to discourage the kittiwakes from settling there.

Local ecologists are now building boutique hotels just for kittiwakes. Using abandoned buildings on piers, they are adding ledges for nesting, materials for nest-building, and electronic speakers that croon kittiwake songs.  The hope is that the birds will stay in their own hotels and leave the other ones for the human tourists.

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Norwegians are building boutique hotels for threatened Arctic birds

Photo, posted April 14, 2018, courtesy of Charlie Jackson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Record Low Ice In The Bering Sea | Earth Wise

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The Bering Sea is the area of the far northern Pacific Ocean that separates Alaska from Russia.  Sea ice in the Bering Sea shrank to its lowest levels in recorded history in 2018, an event with profound effects on northwest Alaska residents who depend on marine resources for food, cash, and culture.

The loss of ice is indicative of very rapid change in the entire northern Bering Sea ecosystem with ramifications for everyone in the region.  A new peer-reviewed study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society examined the details and consequences of the drastic changes in the Bering Sea.

The study found that the maximum daily Bering Sea ice was the lowest on record, and the widespread impacts of that fact include unprecedented weather effects, marine wildlife die-offs, and sightings of animals outside of their normal range.  Ecological changes included the first documented mass strandings of ice-associated seals, a redistribution of thermally sensitive fish, and a multispecies die-off of seabirds due to starvation.

Persistent and anomalous warm winter weather contributed to poor ice conditions that resulted in a fatal accident on an ice road and retreating and fractured sea ice led to ice-laden flooding that caused power outages and infrastructure damage.  In addition, there have been more than 50 reports of unusual events related to weather and marine wildlife.

The record-low sea ice is a consequence of the warming climate resulting in a warmer ocean, later arrival of sea ice, and more frequent storms than in the pre-industrial era.  These conditions are continuing to increase in occurrence.

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Record low level of Bering Sea ice causes profound, widespread impacts

Photo, posted April 7, 2014, courtesy of Allen Smith via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Should New York Build A Storm Surge Barrier?

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In 2012, Superstorm Sandy’s storm surge combined with a high tide and buried lower Manhattan under 13 feet of water.  Across all five boroughs, subways, highways, and parking garages flooded and homes and businesses were destroyed.  Sandy caused nearly $20 billion in damages in New York City alone and more than 50 people died.

Ever since that disaster took place, there have been discussions about building storm surge barriers to protect the city from future storms.  Columbia University’s Sabin Center recently hosted an event to discuss the feasibility of building such barriers.

A study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers called the NY and NJ Harbor and Tributaries Focus Area Feasibility Study (HATS, for short) evaluates five options for coastal protection, which range in scope and price.

The most extensive option would involve constructing six miles of storm surge gates along with 26 miles of floodwalls, levees, and buried seawalls.  This option would cost $62 billion but could theoretically save $131 billion in damages and protect 95% of the study area.

The study also considers the side effects of building storm surge barriers.  These include environmental impacts such as effects on fish and wildlife, water quality, noise and vibrations, and changes in water flow.  While these effects can be quite serious and there is opposition from many quarters related to environmental impacts, others point out that there is really no other credible defense against storm surge.  The debate over whether or not to build storm surge barriers could easily last for many more years.

In the bigger picture, storm surge barriers do nothing to protect against rain-driven flooding, sea level rise, and tidal floods which continue to increase.

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Should New York Build a Storm Surge Barrier?

Photo, posted October 30, 2012, courtesy of Pamela Andrade via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Displaced By Extreme Weather

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The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre is the world’s authoritative source of data and analysis on internal displacement.  Internal displacement refers to people being forced to flee their homes or places of habitual residence but who remain within their country’s borders.  Such displacements can be the result of conflict, violence, development projects, natural disasters, or climate change.  As of the end of 2018, over 41 million people were living in internal displacement because of conflict and violence alone.

This year, natural disasters are causing a record number of internal displacements.  In the first half of the year, 7 million people were displaced by disasters, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all the internal displacements worldwide.  The IDMC estimates that this number could hit 22 million by the end of the year.

The vast majority of displacement has been associated with storms and floods.  Cyclone Fani alone in May displaced more than 3.4 million people in India and Bangladesh.  In March, Cyclone Idai displaced 617,000 people in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe.  In total, 950 extreme weather events in 102 countries and territories displaced 7 million people from January to June.

Technically speaking, internally displaced people are not considered to be refugees because they remain in their home countries.  But the growing millions of people represent a global crisis that continues to worsen with the changing climate.  The international community cannot ignore the plight of these people.  Governments around the world have to redouble their efforts to protect and assist their displaced citizens as well as to invest in sustainable development and climate change adaptation.

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Extreme Weather Displaced 7 Million People in First Half of 2019

Photo, posted August 5, 2012, courtesy of the U.S. Embassy, Jakarta via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hundred-Year Floods Becoming One-Year Floods

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By definition, 100-year floods are intense flooding events that historically tend to happen once every 100 years.  Put another way, a 100-year flood has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

According to new research published in the journal Nature Communications, rising global temperatures may turn 100-year floods into annual occurrences in parts of the United States.  The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be a result of rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

The study, led by researchers at Princeton University and MIT, examined flood risk for 171 counties along the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.  Their analysis concluded that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England.  In the US Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods as often as every year up to as seldom as every 30 years.

Previously, most analysis of coastal flooding has looked only at the impact of sea level rise on flood risk.  This new research combined the risk of rising seas with projected changes in coastal storms over the course of this century.  Data from the Gulf of Mexico revealed that the effect of stronger storms is comparable with or even more significant than the effect of sea level change for 40% of the counties studied.  So, neglecting the effects of storm climatology change is likely to significantly underestimate the impact of climate change in many places.

The hope is that more comprehensive flood risk data can be used to create more effective climate resiliency strategies all the way down to the county level.

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100-Year Floods Could Soon Happen Annually in Parts of U.S., Study Finds

Photo, posted August 31, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Protecting Vulnerable Shorelines

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Global climate change is having noticeable effects on the environment. For example, glaciers are shrinking.  Plant and animal ranges are shifting and populations decreasing.  And droughts, floods, and wildfires are becoming more frequent and more intense.  According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time. 

Our coastal shorelines, which are already stressed by human activity, pollution, storms, and invasive species, are one of many areas expected to be further threatened by climate change.  Sea level rise and more intense and frequent storms are expected to erode and inundate coastal ecosystems and eliminate wetlands.  Ocean acidification is also projected to disrupt marine environments. 

But according to scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, seagrasses could play a key role in protecting these vulnerable shorelines from this onslaught.  The MIT research team demonstrated how the ubiquitous marine plants dissipate wave energy and help protect against erosion, which could help mitigate damage from rising seas. 

Using mathematical modelling and experiments, the MIT researchers were able to quantify for the first time how large and dense a continuous meadow of seagrass must be in order to provide adequate damping of waves in a given setting.  They also found that seagrasses offer significant environmental benefits, including preventing beach erosion, protecting seawalls and coastal structures, improving water quality, and sequestering carbon. 

Submerged aquatic vegetation, including seagrasses, provides an ecosystem service exceeding $4 trillion annually.  Hopefully these findings can help provide useful guidance for seagrass restoration efforts.

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Seagrass’ strong potential for curbing erosion

The Effects of Climate Change

Photo, posted October 13, 2010, courtesy of the NOAA Photo Library via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Insurance

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While there are still some people who remain dubious about the reality of climate change, insurance companies are not among them.  And, in fact, insurers are warning that climate change could make coverage for ordinary people unaffordable.

Munich Reinsurance, the world’s largest reinsurance firm, blamed global warming for $24 billion in losses from California’s recent wildfires.  Such costs could soon be widely felt as premium rises are already under discussion with insurance companies having clients in vulnerable parts of the state.

With the risk from wildfires, flooding, storms and hail increasing, the only sustainable option for the insurance industry is to adjust risk prices accordingly.  Ultimately, this may become a social issue.  Affordability of insurance is critical because if rates go up too much, many people on low and average incomes in some regions may no longer be able to buy insurance.

The great majority of California’s 20 worst forest fires since the 1930’s has occurred since the year 2000 driven by abnormally high summer temperatures and persistent drought. The reinsurance giant analyzed decades of data with climate models and concluded that the fires are likely driven by climate change.

It isn’t just wildfires.  Insurance premiums are also being adjusted in regions facing an increased threat from severe convective storms whose energy and severity are driven by global warming.  These include parts of Germany, Austria, France, southwest Italy, and the U.S. Midwest.

Linking extreme weather events to climate change is a bit like attributing the performance of a steroid-using athlete to drug use.  The connections are clearer in patterns than in individual disasters.  But the pattern these days is pretty clear.

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Climate Change Could Make Insurance Unaffordable for Most People

Photo, posted June 12, 2013, courtesy of Jeff Head via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

2018 Was A Wet Year

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Recent news reports noted that 2018 was the fourth hottest year on record.  But the changing climate is not just about temperature.  2018 was also the third-wettest year since 1895, when steady record-keeping began.

Overall, the U.S. recorded 4.68 inches more precipitation in 2018 than the 20th century average.  But all that rain and snow was nothing like evenly distributed.  The eastern half of the country – especially in places like North Carolina and Virginia – saw record amounts of precipitation, while most of the West remained stuck in drought.

The warming climate leads to precipitation extremes at both ends, meaning that wet places are likely to get wetter and dry places drier.  There has been a marked upward trend in short-duration extreme events.   For example, Cyclone Mekunu dumped almost 13 inches of rain on Salalah, Oman in 36 hours, more than double its annual average rainfall.

In the southeast and eastern U.S., the trend toward stronger storm events is mostly driven by strong warming of the oceans that fringe their shores.  Warm oceans evaporate more water into the air and warm air holds more water than cooler air.  Warmer, moisture-laden air acts like a blanket over the land, keeping heat trapped near the ground.  Many of the states that had their wettest-ever years also set records for high minimum temperatures – their coldest temperatures were less cold than in the past.

Air temperatures are projected to warm up even further in the coming years and, as a result, many scientists are anticipating that extreme precipitation events will only get more extreme.  The pattern of drought in the west and wetness in the east is likely to stay.

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2018 was the U.S.’s third-wettest year on record—here’s why

Photo, posted August 18, 2018, courtesy of Jim Lukach via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)