The main reasons that electric cars haven’t taken over are that they didn’t drive far enough on a charge, it took too long to charge them, and, most of all, they cost too much.
In recent years, the problem with driving range has steadily been disappearing as electric cars that can go over two hundred and even over three hundred miles on a charge have entered the market. Charging time has also become less of a problem. Tesla’s network of Superchargers can provide 200 miles worth of charge in half an hour and their next generation of chargers, which are just starting to appear, can cut that time much further.
As for cost, a new report by transportation analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that electric vehicles will be cost-competitive with combustion-engine cars by 2022.
The main reason is that the cost of EV batteries has been plummeting. In 2015, batteries made up 57% of the total cost of an electric vehicle. Today, that number is down to 33% and is expected to drop to 20% by 2025. In addition, the cost of electric powertrain systems is also dropping. The Bloomberg report predicts that over the next decade, costs for motors, inverters, and power electronics could be 25 to 30% cheaper than today.
The cost of electric vehicles has been dropping faster than predicted. Bloomberg’s report on the subject in 2017 predicted cost parity in 2026. Last year, they changed it to 2024. And now, they are saying 2022.
Given that electric cars are much cheaper to drive than gasoline cars, finding reasons not to drive them is getting harder to do.
Photo, posted November 17, 2018, courtesy of Jakob Harter via Flickr.