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The cost of electric vehicle batteries

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The battery pack in an electric car is the most expensive part of the car. Currently, it accounts for as much as 30% of the price.  But EV batteries last a long time.  Most are guaranteed for 8-10 years and are likely to last as long as 20 years.  In practice, only 1.5% of electric cars need battery replacements for one reason or another.

The economics of EV batteries has changed dramatically over time and will continue to do so.  EV battery capacity is measured in kWh, the units you are charged for your home electricity.  An EV with a 300-mile driving range will have a battery pack that holds something like 75 kWh.

In 2008, when electric cars were just starting to enter the market again after earlier false starts, lithium-ion battery packs cost $1,355 per kWh.  When the Tesla Model S was introduced in 2012, packs were about $800. By 2019, packs broke the $200 per kWh barrier. Last year, lithium-ion battery packs reached $115 per kWh.

A combination of technology improvements and strong market competition with growing supplies is driving prices ever lower.  Industry analysts expect battery prices to drop well below $100 this year and reach about $80 next year.

The result of all of this cost reduction is that EVs will be cheaper than equivalent internal combustion vehicles, which in fact is already the case in China. Apart from cost, batteries for cars continue to improve so that the driving range of EVs will continue to increase making the cars more attractive and very practical for nearly all drivers.

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How Much Do Electric Car Batteries Cost to Replace?

Photo, posted January 22, 2019, courtesy of Steve Rainwater via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Battery life in electric cars

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Most of us have lots of experience with the batteries in phones, computers, and other gadgets.  Batteries don’t last forever, and we sometimes have to replace them.  It’s a fact of life.   These days, it’s becoming more common to drive electric cars and the fundamental principle is the same.  However, the battery pack in an EV is the most expensive part of the car, so its reliability and lifespan is a greater concern.

EV batteries generally have generous warranties.  In the US, EV batteries are required by federal law to be covered for at least 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first.  So, the financial exposure from the battery pack is reasonably limited.  Even so, EV owners would like to know that their car’s battery pack is likely to last a long time.

Battery life is generally determined by laboratory tests involving repeated charge-discharge cycles over a relatively short period of time, as opposed to those cycles being spaced out over years.

A new study by Stanford University looked at battery performance under conditions much more like what would be experienced in the real world.  Cars experience frequent acceleration, braking that charges the batteries a bit, lots of stops, periods of rest, and so forth.  Nothing like just charging and discharging repeatedly.

The study found that today’s EV batteries may last up to 40% longer than expected.  Real-world stop-and-go driving benefits batteries more than standard test conditions.

The cost of EV batteries continues to get lower all the time and it is likely to be quite a long time before one is likely to need a new battery assuming one even keeps the car long enough.

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Existing EV batteries may last up to 40% longer than expected

Photo, posted August 27, 2021, courtesy of Ron Frazier via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Faster electric vehicle charging

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One concern that people have in replacing gas-powered vehicles with electric vehicles is the time it takes to charge them.  Charging an EV at home from an ordinary 110V electrical outlet is a slow process; installing a 220V outlet speeds things up considerably but it still can take all night to fully charge a car.  The driving range of electric cars has increased over the years so that now there are many cars that can go 300 miles or more on a charge. For most people, so-called range anxiety is mostly gone.  But on long road trips, charging time can be a real issue.

There are increasing numbers of high-speed chargers along or adjacent to major highways that can provide 200 miles of driving range in less than half an hour.  But people want more charge, and they want it faster.

There are multiple efforts in improving EV batteries and charger technology aimed at transforming a visit to a public charger to an experience comparable to filling up at a gasoline station.

Researchers at the University of Waterloo have designed a new kind of lithium-ion battery that will be able to go from zero battery power to 80% in just 15 minutes. This technology would certainly enhance the capabilities of today’s electric cars.  However, it is quite possible that other technologies that surpass this performance will emerge in the near future.  There is talk across the industry of cars that can charge up in 5 or 10 minutes.   There is also the prospect of many cars that can drive 500 miles on a charge.  These features would address the needs or desires of all but a very small number of drivers.

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From zero to 80 per cent in just 15 minutes

Photo, posted May 7, 2022, courtesy of Sharon Hahn Darlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

EV growth and oil demand

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There has been lots of talk recently about the transition to electric vehicles sputtering out.  Several automakers have delayed their EV programs citing reduced demand for the vehicles and lack of profitability.  In the bigger picture, the auto industry as a whole is in a rough patch as rising interest rates and other factors have reduced car buying.

Despite all this doom and gloom talk, sales of electric vehicles will hit an all-time high this year.  Adoption of EVs is accelerating more quickly than many people expected and government policies in China, the United States, and Europe have had a significant impact on vehicle sales.  In China, 37% of new cars sold last year were electric.  The country hit its 2025 target three years early and this year the figure could hit 45%.

But even as electric car sales rapidly increase, oil demand has continued to climb, reaching 100 million barrels a day, slightly more than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.  The International Energy Agency expects that oil demand will peak before the end of this decade, but oil consumption could remain strong for decades unless there is further policy action encouraging the transition away from it.

Some experts say that the IEA’s models don’t take into account how quickly the world is changing.  New emission rules are expected to speed the adoption of EVs and plug-in hybrids.  In addition, falling battery costs are making the economics of electric vehicles increasingly attractive.  If EV adoption accelerates more rapidly than these models predict, then oil consumption could drop much more quickly.

However, the oil industry is deeply embedded in modern life and is not likely to fade away without a fight.

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EV Sales Are Taking Off. Why Is Oil Demand Still Climbing?

Photo, posted September 9, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

One in five cars will be electric this year

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There has been lots of turbulence in the electric car industry of late.  Part of it is aggressive publicity campaigns spreading misinformation and part of it is the natural fits and starts associated with major change.  But apart from the ups and downs of individual companies and countries, analysts are projecting another record year for the sales of electric vehicles and are expecting that plug-in cars will account for 20% of all car sales globally.  Much of the growth will be driven by China, where 38% of new car sales will be electric cars.

Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21% this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.  Total projected sales are 16.7 million cars, including 1.9 million in the U.S., 3.4 million in Europe, and 9.7 million in China.  Because of the rapid adoption of electric cars in China, that country is expected to reach peak gasoline demand this year.  In other words, the use of gasoline in China will be diminishing from now on.

The auto industry is in flux.  The traditional big automakers are currently slowing down EV manufacturing as they work to come up to speed with the technology and market demand.  Meanwhile, EV-only carmakers such as Tesla in the U.S. and BYD in China are ratcheting up production. BYD is focusing on emerging economies with its lower-priced offerings.

In the U.S., EV adoption has been slowed somewhat by high interest rates and the slow rollout of EVs by the Big Three automakers.  But many new vehicles by a growing list of automakers will provide customers with more and more choices of EVs to suit diverse tastes and needs.

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This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Photo, posted November 18, 2023, courtesy of RL via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

EV battery costs continue to drop

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Electric vehicles have historically been more expensive than their gas-powered counterparts primarily because of the cost of the batteries that power them.  Today’s EV battery packs range in size from about 40 kWh to as much as 200 kWh, where kWh measure the amount of energy stored in pack.

The batteries in EVs are lithium-ion batteries, the same technology used to power cell phones, tablets, and computers.  A decade ago, the batteries averaged $668 per kilowatt-hour and packs as large as those in some of today’s vehicles were simply unthinkable from a price standpoint. 

Over the years, government subsidies, increased competition, higher volume, improvements in battery technology, and reductions in the cost of raw materials such as lithium have combined to drive continuous and dramatic reductions in battery costs.  By March 2022, the average price for lithium-ion batteries was $146 per kWh.  This past August, battery costs broke the $100 per kilowatt-hour barrier.

Industry analysts have long maintained that once the $100 barrier has been reached, EVs could achieve price parity with their fossil-fuel counterparts.  Electric cars would no longer be more expensive to buy than equivalent gas cars.

Projections are that battery prices will continue to fall by something like 10% a year for the rest of this decade.  All else being equal, EVs should be cheaper to buy than gas cars.  Of course, they have already been cheaper to operate for a long time. 

None of this means that car prices will go down in general.  That will depend on trends in inflation and those are pretty hard to predict.

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EVs Set to Match Gas Guzzlers in Price as Battery Costs Plummet

Photo, posted May 9, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Race For EV Batteries | Earth Wise

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Lithium-ion batteries have been the power source for electric vehicles since 2008, when the Tesla Roadster was introduced.  They took over for nickel-metal hydride batteries that powered most hybrid electric cars such as the Prius.  Lithium-ion batteries store much more energy for a battery of a given weight, which leads to greater driving range.

But lithium-ion is not an ideal solution.  The batteries depend on critical materials that are obtained by hacking into mountains, utilizing scarce desert groundwater, and in some cases, making use of child labor. Many materials depend on countries with whom economic ties have complicated geopolitical consequences.

State and federal mandates and incentives are pushing auto companies to prioritize electric vehicles in their future plans.  The Inflation Reduction Act in particular provides credits and other incentives for both consumers and manufacturers to electrify. So, sources for EV batteries are a key issue.

The Department of Energy is funding 20 different companies with $2.8 billion to bolster the production and processing of critical minerals in the U.S.  The goal is to bring the electric vehicle supply chain onshore to the greatest extent possible.  Some of the work involves redesigning lithium-ion batteries to reduce or eliminate problematic materials such as cobalt.  Other efforts seek to find domestic sources of critical materials such as lithium without causing serious environmental problems.

Given all this, it is no surprise that academic and industrial researchers are also exploring a wide variety of alternative battery technologies. 

The future of transportation is electrification and the race for EV batteries is on.

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For U.S. Companies, the Race for the New EV Battery Is On

Photo, posted August 27, 2021, courtesy of Ron Frazier via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Wireless EV Charging | Earth Wise

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Michigan, historically the focus of the American auto industry, has announced a new initiative to develop the nation’s first wireless charging infrastructure on a public road.  The Inductive Vehicle Charging Pilot is a partnership between the Michigan Department of Transportation and the Office of Future Mobility and Electrification.

The idea is to deploy an electrified roadway system that allows electric buses, shuttles, and vehicles to charge while driving, allowing them to operate continuously without stopping to charge.  In principle, such electrified roadways have the potential to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and turn public streets into safe and sustainable shared energy platforms.  This is especially valuable for drivers who might not have easy access to conventional charging facilities.

The pilot program is seeking proposals to design, fund, evaluate, iterate, test, and implement an inductive charging system along a one-mile stretch of state-operated roadway in Michigan.

The basic concept is to embed coils in a road that will convey electricity to cars outfitted with coils of their own.  It is much like the wireless charging pads used to power up smartphones.  Indiana is pursuing a similar project in the next couple of years.

Clearly driving through a one mile stretch of roadway for minute or two is not going to provide a whole lot of energy by whatever coupling mechanism is used. Scaling up the technology represents a significant challenge at the very least.  How practical such a scheme is from both a technology and an economic perspective remains to be seen.  In any case, it is interesting to see that states are looking at various alternatives for providing access to charging infrastructure to the growing population of electrified vehicles.

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Governor Whitmer Announces Initiative for Nation-Leading Wireless EV Charging Infrastructure in Michigan

Photo, posted September 6, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Busting Electric Vehicle Myths | Earth Wise

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From the early days of hybrid vehicles right on through the current booming market for electric cars, there has been the contention by some people that these cars are responsible for comparable or even greater amounts of greenhouse gas emissions over their product lifetimes.  The arguments generally centered around the carbon costs of creating batteries for the cars as well as the emissions associated with generating the electricity used to charge them.

A new study published by the International Council for Clean Transportation reports a life cycle assessment (or LCA) that considers every source of carbon generated from the cradle to the grave of the vehicle.

Included in the assessment are the mining costs of the lithium to make batteries, the transportation of batteries across the world by container ship, the end-of-life burden, the mix of energy generation in various places around the world, and so on.

The results of the analysis are that even in India and China, which are the biggest burners of coal and oil on earth, it still results in lower emissions to drive an EV instead of an internal combustion vehicle.

Lifetime emissions of today’s average medium-size EVs are lower than comparable gasoline cars by 66-69% in Europe, 60-68% in the US, 37-45% in China, and 19-34% in India.  As electricity generation continues to further decarbonize, all these numbers will only get better.  While it is somewhat more carbon-intensive to manufacture an EV, it doesn’t take very long in the car’s life to come out ahead owning one.

Early skeptics of EVs and hybrids had more legitimate concerns a decade or so ago, but the advantages of these vehicles are now unambiguous.

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One of the Biggest Myths About EVs is Busted in New Study

Photo, posted December 30, 2020, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Is Peak Oil Here? | Earth Wise

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For many years there has been talk of “peak oil”, the point at which rising world oil consumption would peak and then start declining.  Some analysts have been predicting that this could happen by the 2030s.   But the coronavirus pandemic drove a 9% slump in oil demand in 2020 that some economists are saying might never be entirely reversed.

There are three major forces driving down the world’s appetite for oil:  decarbonization of economies to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, declining demand for oil as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are increasingly adopted, and detoxification as cities act to curb particulates and emissions from burning petroleum.

The largest single factor is electric vehicles.  Automobiles currently consume almost half of the world’s oil.  As of the end of 2020, there were an estimated 10 million electric cars as well as more than 600,000 electric buses and trucks.  This is still less than 1% of all vehicles, but 5% of all new cars being bought are now electric and the number is growing rapidly.  Experts estimate that nearly a quarter of global car sales will be electric vehicles by 2025 and many car manufacturers are promising to sell only electric cars within the next 10 years.

The decline in oil demand is pretty much inevitable at this point.  The main question is how quickly it will happen.  Road transport makes up 48% of global oil demand, petrochemicals account for 14%, aviation 7%, and shipping 6%.  Ultimately all these things are likely to diminish over time. 

Only time will tell, but the long-awaited arrival of peak oil may already have happened.

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Amid Troubles for Fossil Fuels, Has the Era of ‘Peak Oil’ Arrived?

Photo, posted April 14, 2019, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars And The Environment | Earth Wise

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There are articles in the media all the time questioning whether electric cars are really better for the environment than those powered by fossil fuels.  The usual argument is that once emissions from vehicle production and electricity generation are taken into account, electric cars are no greener than gas cars, or even worse for the environment.  Of course, these arguments tend to be made by oil companies and their supporters.

A new study by three European universities looked at this very issue in detail. They carried out a life-cycle assessment in which they not only calculated greenhouse gas emissions generated when using cars, but also in the production chain and waste processing.

Their conclusions are that under current conditions, driving an electric car is better for the climate than conventional gasoline cars in 95% of the world.  The only exceptions are places like Poland, where almost all electricity comes from coal-fired plants.

Average lifetime emissions associated with electric cars are up to 70% lower than gas cars in countries like Sweden and France and about 30% lower in England.

It is important to note than in a few years, even inefficient electric cars will be less emission-intensive than gas cars because electricity generation is becoming less carbon-intensive all the time.  The study projects that by 2050, half of the world’s cars will be electric resulting in carbon dioxide emission reductions of 1.5 billion tons.

The study states that the idea that electric cars could increase emissions is a myth.  The detailed study has run the numbers for all around the world and even in the worst-case scenario, there would be a reduction in emissions in almost all cases.

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Electric cars better for climate in 95% of the world

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Guillaume Vachey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Booming Electric Car Sales

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Electric cars are becoming more and more commonplace over time.  There is no place in the world where this is more evident than in Norway.  This year, about half the new cars sold in Norway have been electric.  This compares to only 25% just last year.  In March alone, nearly 60% of vehicle purchases in Norway were plug-in cars, outselling gas and diesel cars for the first time ever.

Norway has encouraged the switch to electric transportation by making battery-powered cars tax exempt as well as offering various other incentives.  This is all part of the country’s plan to end the sale of fossil fuel cars entirely by 2025.

Although Norway leads the world in electric car sales on a per capita basis, there are many other places seeing rapid growth.  In Maryland, for example, so many electric cars were sold in the past year that the state’s tax credit program, which has a $3 million annual budget, ran out of money seven months before the end of the fiscal year.  Between 2017 and 2018, the number of EVs registered in Maryland doubled to over 18,000.

New York has also seen robust growth in electric vehicles.  There are now more than 40,000 plug-in cars registered in New York State.  About a third of those are Tesla models, with the increasingly popular Tesla Model 3 rapidly becoming the dominant plug-in car in the state.  In fact, this year the Tesla Model 3 has accounted for about 60% of all plug-in car sales in the United States.

Not only are electric car sales going up, so are the options for car buyers.  Within the next year or two, there will be numerous new electric car choices available from multiple manufacturers appealing to the tastes of a growing range of car buyers.

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EVs Make Up Half of New Car Sales in Norway So Far This Year

Photo, posted May 16, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Affordable Electric Cars

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The main reasons that electric cars haven’t taken over are that they didn’t drive far enough on a charge, it took too long to charge them, and, most of all, they cost too much.

In recent years, the problem with driving range has steadily been disappearing as electric cars that can go over two hundred and even over three hundred miles on a charge have entered the market.  Charging time has also become less of a problem.  Tesla’s network of Superchargers can provide 200 miles worth of charge in half an hour and their next generation of chargers, which are just starting to appear, can cut that time much further.

As for cost, a new report by transportation analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that electric vehicles will be cost-competitive with combustion-engine cars by 2022.

The main reason is that the cost of EV batteries has been plummeting.  In 2015, batteries made up 57% of the total cost of an electric vehicle.  Today, that number is down to 33% and is expected to drop to 20% by 2025.  In addition, the cost of electric powertrain systems is also dropping.  The Bloomberg report predicts that over the next decade, costs for motors, inverters, and power electronics could be 25 to 30% cheaper than today.

The cost of electric vehicles has been dropping faster than predicted.  Bloomberg’s report on the subject in 2017 predicted cost parity in 2026.  Last year, they changed it to 2024.  And now, they are saying 2022.

Given that electric cars are much cheaper to drive than gasoline cars, finding reasons not to drive them is getting harder to do.

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Electric Cars Could Be As Affordable as Conventional Vehicles In Just Three Years

Photo, posted November 17, 2018, courtesy of Jakob Harter via Flickr.

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Electric Buses On The Rise

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Electric buses are replacing conventional diesel-fueled buses at an accelerating rate that is outpacing the adoption of battery-powered cars.  According to forecasts by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by 2030 some 28% of car sales will be electric vehicles while 84% of new buses will be electric buses.  So far, some 12 years away, the actual adoption of electric buses is outpacing this optimistic projection.

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