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Billion-Dollar Disasters | Earth Wise

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By the end of August, the United States had already broken the one-year record for the number of weather and climate disasters that caused more than $1 billion in damage.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, through August there had already been 23 billion-dollar disasters.  The previous record of 22 had been set in 2020.  The 23 this year racked up $58 billion in damages.

The unfortunate litany of events included two in August:  Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida’s Big Bend region and the Lahaina fire storm on Maui.  Earlier in the year, winter storms in the Northeast, floods in California and Vermont, and 18 other severe storm events contributed to the record.

With a very active Atlantic hurricane season underway and the prospects for more wildfires in the west, it is likely that the record for billion-dollar disasters will climb even higher before the year ends.

The massive financial losses incurred this year highlight the need for more funding and attention to be directed toward climate resistance and adaptation.  The NOAA report urges policymakers to invest much more in getting out ahead of disasters before they strike rather than only looking for ways to help communities to pick up the pieces after disaster has struck.

Congress is currently considering $16 billion in additional funding for FEMA to keep the agency functioning in this very trying year.

As climate change continues to contribute to more intense storms and larger and more frequent wildfires, the price of adaptation and recovery efforts is likely to continue to grow.

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2023 has already broken the US record for billion-dollar climate disasters

Photo, posted August 31, 2023, courtesy of Spc. Christian Wilson / The National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Cost Of Invasive Species | Earth Wise

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According to a new report published by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the United Nations, invasive species introduced to new ecosystems around the world are causing more than $423 billion in estimated losses to the global economy every year.  These economic costs are incurred by harming nature, damaging food systems, and threatening human health.

According to the report, these costs have at least quadrupled every decade since 1970 and the estimates are actually conservative because it’s difficult to account for all of the effects of invasive species.

The report estimates that humans have intentionally or unintentionally introduced more than 37,000 species to places outside their natural ranges.  More than 3,500 of them are considered invasive because they are harmful to their new ecosystems.  Invasive nonnative species were a major factor in 60% of known extinctions of plants and animals.

Some species are relocated deliberately by the wildlife trade and international shipping.  Other plants and animals end up hitching a ride with ordinary travelers as they move about by car, boat, plane, or train. 

Invasions can damage human health.  Mosquitos that transmit diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and the Zika virus have become invasive around the world. The wildfires in Hawaii this summer were fueled by invasive nonnative grasses in a warming climate. 

Nearly every country in the world has agreed to participate in a sweeping agreement to preserve biodiversity and reduce invasive species.  It is an essential global goal.

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Invasive Species Are Costing the Global Economy Billions, Study Finds

Photo, posted June 2, 2022, courtesy of Sam Stukel (USFWS) via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Cutting Deforestation | Earth Wise

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Deforestation is a major contributor to climate change because the destruction of tropical rainforests worldwide eliminates a crucial natural sink for carbon.  Between 2015 and 2020, roughly 39,000 square miles of forest were cut down, an area about 70% the size of the entire state of New York.  In many places, such as the Amazon and Congo Basins, deforestation continues to accelerate.  In Bolivia, deforestation rose 59% over the past five years; in Ghana, the rise was 71%.

A new report from the World Resources Institute revealed one bright spot in the deforestation story:  both Indonesia and Malaysia have cut deforestation by more than half in recent years.  The two countries have managed to keep rates of primary forest loss to near record-low levels.

Over the past five years, Indonesia saw a 64% decline and Malaysia a 57% decline in deforestation.  Indonesia is the second largest source of deforestation with only Brazil removing more trees.

Indonesia has a national goal of having its forests absorb more carbon than they release by 2030.  They have moved to curb logging and limit the clearing of land for palm oil plantations.  They have also ramped up efforts to suppress forest fires.

It is good that Indonesia and Malaysia and some other countries have shown progress in reducing forest loss.  However, too many other countries have seen continued activities and policies that are causing acceleration of deforestation in critical areas.  Protecting forests is an important part of the effort to mitigate the effects of climate change.  Preserving forests also is essential for protecting the people and the biodiversity that depend on them.

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Indonesia, Malaysia Have Cut Deforestation in Half in Last Half-Decade

Photo, posted March 22, 2021, courtesy EPJT Tours via of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Europe Is Warming Very Quickly | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, Europe is warming faster than any other inhabited continent.  The result of the rising temperatures has been increasingly severe heat waves, flood, and wildfires.

The Paris Climate Agreement has set a goal of limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if at all possible, to no more than 1.5 degrees.  To date, the planet has warmed by 1.2 degrees and, with greenhouse gas emissions continuing at record levels, the temperature keeps going up.

These numbers refer to the global average.  Some places have warmed more and others less.  The Arctic has been warming four times quicker than the rest of the world.  In terms of direct impact on large populations, Europe has already surpassed the 2-degree mark, having reached 2.3 degrees last year.  In 2022, many countries in western and southwestern Europe had their warmest year on record. Weather-related economic damages totaled $2 billion, mostly as a result of storms and floods.

Europe is trying to do its part in mitigating climate change by making major gains on clean energy.  Wind and solar generated 22% of Europe’s power in 2022, which is more than either natural gas or coal produced.  Europe is trying to do its share, but the warming climate is a global phenomenon and will require a global effort to mitigate its effects.

The record-breaking heat stress experienced by Europeans last year cannot be considered a one-off occurrence.  It is part of a pattern that will make weather extremes more frequent and more intense over time.

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The Fastest-Warming Continent, Europe Has Already Heated by More Than 2 Degrees C

Photo, posted September 26, 2011, courtesy of Ben Ramirez via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Peak Fossil Fuels | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit that studies the energy transition, we have reached a pivot point in which fossil fuels have peaked in their use for producing electricity and are about to enter a period of decline.

The report makes the case that wind and solar power are going through a growth process that looks very much like the trend lines for the early stages of other transformative products and industries – things like automobiles and smartphones.  Such growth begins slowly for technology and products that are very expensive, but then shifts into high gear as costs shrink and efficiency rises.

The argument is that fossil fuel demand has peaked in the electricity market because the annual growth in global electricity demand is now less that the amount of electricity being generated by newly-built renewable energy plants (mostly solar and wind.)  This dynamic will squeeze out the most expensive and dirtiest energy sources over time.

Overall use of fossil fuels for electricity shifted in 2018 from a long-standing period of growth to a holding pattern in which the total amount of electricity produced has no clear trend.  According to the RMI report, this plateau in fossil fuel use is likely to continue until about 2025, and then will be followed by a long-term decline.

While the trends in fossil fuel use are quite evident, the end results are not inevitable.  There continues to be a battle between the forces trying to protect the fossil fuel status quo and those trying to change it. But strong economic forces are difficult to overcome.  Renewable energy is the lowest cost source of electricity in a growing number of locations and situations.

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When Will We Hit Peak Fossil Fuels? Maybe We Already Have

Photo, posted December 27, 2015, courtesy of Gerry Machen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

2022 Temperature Report | Earth Wise

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The average surface temperature for the Earth in 2022 tied with 2015 as the fifth warmest on record.  The warming trend for the planet continued with global temperatures 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average baseline for 1951-1980 that NASA uses for its studies. Compared with the late 19th century average used in setting climate goals, global temperatures are up about 1.1 degrees Celsius, or 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

Overall, the past nine years have been the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880.   The rising temperatures have moved in concert with rising levels of greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere from human activity.  Many factors can affect the average temperature in any given year including El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific.  But the longer-term trend is quite clear.  Global temperatures continue to rise.

Greenhouse gas emissions have reached all-time high levels despite increasing efforts to reduce them.  There was a real drop in levels in 2020 due to reduced activity during COVID-19 lockdowns, but they rebounded soon thereafter. 

The Arctic region continues to experience the strongest warming trends, as much as four times the global average.  Arctic warming has a major impact on weather at lower latitudes as it changes the behavior of the jet stream as well as affecting ocean currents and water temperatures.

As global temperatures continue to rise, rainfall and tropical storms have become more intense, droughts have become more severe, and ocean storm surges have had increasing impact.  From torrential monsoons in Asia to megadroughts in the U.S. Southwest, extreme weather has become the new normal.

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NASA Says 2022 Fifth Warmest Year on Record, Warming Trend Continues

Photo, posted June 20, 2020, courtesy of Daxis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables Will Overtake Coal | Earth Wise

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According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, worldwide growth in renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years.  In fact, by 2027, the world will add as much renewable power as it did over the previous 20 years.

Of particular significance is that renewables are going to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has had multiple effects on the evolution of the energy system.  While the war has driven a resurgence in fossil fuel consumption in Europe in order to replace gas from Russia, that resurgence is expected to be short-lived.  Instead, the current energy crisis may turn out to be an historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system.

Soaring fossil-fuel prices triggered by the war have caused many countries to respond by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps.  In the US, Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for clean energy technologies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.  China, India, South Korea, and Japan have all increased their national targets for renewable power.   However, heating and cooling buildings with renewable power remains a sector needing larger improvement, according to the energy agency.

Overall, the expansion of renewable power over the next five years is now projected to happen much faster than what was projected just one year ago. The new IEA report revised last year’s forecast for renewables growth by 30% as a result of the introduction of new policies by many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters.

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Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

Photo, posted March 8, 2021, courtesy of Stanze via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The State Of The Birds | Earth Wise

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The U.S. Committee of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative has published the State of the Birds 2022, an assessment of bird populations in North America. The news is not good.  The report identifies 70 Tipping Point species, which are those that have lost half or more of their breeding population since 1970 and are on track to lose another half or more in the next 50 years. According to research published in Science in 2019, the United States and Canada have lost 3 billion breeding birds since 1970, which is about a quarter of the total population.

More than half of the bird species in the United States are in decline. According to the Conservation Initiative, the tipping point species in particular require proactive conservation protections to avoid becoming endangered.  Species that inhabit grasslands are declining more rapidly, while waterfowl like ducks and geese are actually increasing.  That increase is most likely a result of the investments in conservation funded by the hunting industry.

Those waterfowl gains demonstrate that when there are concerted efforts to protect and promote bird populations, positve changes can happen.  Some say that protecting birds is not a high priority given all the other crises in the world, but what is good for birds is also good for people.  For example, planting trees and other vegetation to enhance bird habitat also helps to sequester carbon, protect coastlines from storm surges, increase groundwater recharge, and reduce urban heating effects.

The loss of 3 billion birds is a major biodiversity crisis and requires action.  Bird conservation benefits wildlife, people, entire ecosystems, and our planet.

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What’s Good for Birds Is Good for People and the Planet. But More Than Half of Bird Species in the U.S. Are in Decline

Photo, posted November 4, 2020, courtesy of Tom Koerner/U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Reshaping Our Planet | Earth Wise

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Human activity – especially agriculture – has altered 70% of the land on our planet.  According to a new report from the United Nations, damage to the Earth’s lands has put the planet on “crisis footing”.

Our health, our economy, and our well-being depend on land.  The food we eat, the water we drink, and the air we breathe all rely on status of the land to at least some extent.

According to the report, up to 40% of the planet’s land is already degraded, affecting half of the people alive today.  At current rates, an additional area nearly the size of South America will be degraded by 2050.

Degradation of land occurs in various ways, including deforestation, desertification, and the loss of wetlands or grasslands.  All of these things are caused by human activities.  As forests, savannas, wetlands, and mangrove swamps are converted to agriculture or are lost to urban expansion, greenhouse gas emissions rapidly increase, adding to the effects of climate change.  The climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and land degradation are integrally linked.

Much of the blame for degraded landscapes is on humanity’s ever-expanding need for food and the modern farming systems that produce it.  The global food system is responsible for 80% of the world’s deforestation, 70% of freshwater use, and is the greatest driver of land-based biodiversity loss.  Modern agriculture has altered the face of the planet more than any other human activity.

The report urges efforts at restoration of land.  Restoration can take multiple forms, including planting forests and shrubs or grazing livestock and growing crops between trees instead of clearing existing forests.

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UN Report Says Humanity Has Altered 70 Percent of the Earth’s Land, Putting the Planet on a ‘Crisis Footing’

Photo, posted June 20, 2010, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Plastic Recycling Isn’t Working | Earth Wise

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A recent report from several environmental organizations shows that plastic recycling rates in the U.S. have actually declined in the last several years from about 8.7% of discarded plastic to less than 6%.   Meanwhile, since 1980, per capita plastic waste generation has increased 263%, totaling 218 pounds of plastic waste per person as of 2018.

Diminishing recycling rates don’t necessarily indicate a lack of interest by the public.  Plastic recycling is a complicated process.  There are multiple types of plastic that can’t be intermingled and there are no simple and sustainable ways to recycle many forms of plastic.   On top of that, the declining recycling rate also reflects the fact that we no longer can export our plastic waste to countries like China and Turkey, which have banned U.S. waste imports.

Recycling in general is a successful practice.  Paper recycling rates are around 66% as of 2020.  Cardboard recycling was at 88.8% in 2020, and metal recycling rates range from 27% to 76%, depending on the type of metal.  Glass recycling rates are a little over 30%.  Only plastic recycling has never reached 10%, even before shipping our waste overseas and declaring it to be recycled was going on.

According to environmental organizations focused on the global plastic problem, there is no circular economy of plastics.  Perhaps if truly biodegradable plastics became practical, economical, and widely utilized, the situation would be different.  As things stand, the only solution is to reduce the production, use, and disposal of plastics.

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Plastics Recycling ‘Does Not Work,’ Environmentalists Stress as U.S. Recycling Rates Drop to 5%

Photo, posted May 13, 2021, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Primary Ways To Mitigate Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The most recent report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the world must halt the increase in greenhouse gases within three years, reduce emissions by 43% in the next seven years, and eliminate them entirely by 2050.  Otherwise, there will likely be catastrophic and irreversible impacts on the climate.

With respect to achieving these reductions, the report emphasizes decarbonizing the energy sector through electrification by replacing fossil fuels anywhere and everywhere possible.  Where that isn’t yet practical – such as in shipping and aviation – the use of biofuels and hydrogen can provide a stopgap until battery technology becomes a viable alternative.

The economics of this approach continue to improve.  Since 2010, the cost of wind, solar, and batteries has declined by as much as 85%.  In many cases, costs have fallen below those of fossil fuels.  Nonetheless, the report stresses that continuing to provide national, state, and local incentives for using renewable energy is a key factor in achieving the necessary reductions.

However, reducing emissions will no longer be enough.  This is the first major IPCC report that states that man-made carbon dioxide removal strategies will be necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  So-called natural carbon storage options, like planting trees and using farming methods that sequester carbon in soil, are also important parts of the strategy.

It is up to governments, policymakers, and investors to implement the necessary changes to mitigate climate change.  There is lots of talk about it, but it will take concerted action to avoid increasingly dire consequences.

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Report highlights affordable, available ways to mitigate climate change now

Photo, posted September 8, 2007, courtesy of Kevin Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Peak Natural Gas Generation | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance (the IEEFA), the U.S. most likely hit its peak usage of natural gas to generate electricity in 2020.  Growth in wind and solar power are beginning to erode the use of natural gas.

At the moment, natural gas prices are unusually high as a result of supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine.  The U.S. is shipping record amounts of gas to Europe in order to help allies to wean off of Russian gas imports.  As a result, U.S. natural gas prices are at their highest level in more than 13 years.  Heating bills in the Northeast have been exceptionally high this past winter.

These high gas prices have also thrown a temporary lifeline to coal, which has seen a recent surge.  Despite this, coal in the U.S. is continuing its long-term decline.  Several of the largest power companies – including the Tennessee Valley Authority, Duke Energy, and Georgia Power – are planning to phase out coal entirely by 2035 and shift to renewable power.

The surging prices in fossil fuels – at the gas pump and in the home – along with multiple disruptions in energy security, are supercharging the already rapid pace of growth in solar, wind, and battery energy storage projects.

Wind, solar, and hydropower currently account for about 20% of U.S. power generation.  According to the IEEFA, these renewable sources could provide more than a third of our power by 2027.  Including both renewables and nuclear power plants, the U.S. could generate more than half of its electricity from carbon-free sources by that year, which represents a massive transition from just five years ago.

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U.S. May Have Hit Peak Natural Gas Power Generation, Report Says

Photo, posted July 11, 2017, courtesy of John Ciccarelli / BLM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coral Reef Status Report | Earth Wise

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In October, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network released the first-ever report collecting global statistics on the world’s corals.  It documents the status of reefs across 12,000 sites in 73 countries over 40 years.  Overall, the news is not good, but there were some bright spots.

From 2009 to 2018, the world has lost 14% of its corals, corresponding to about 4,500 square miles of coral.  Global warming has led to prolonged marine heatwaves that trigger coral bleaching.  Local pollution has also damaged reefs.   The International Panel on Climate Change has reported that 2 degrees Celsius of global warming would wipe out 99% of the world’s corals.

The report does show that corals can recover globally if given a decade of cooler waters.  Some places in the world – particularly the Coral Triangle in Asia, which contains nearly a third of the world’s coral – have actually seen coral growth over the past decade. 

The Global Coral Reef Monitoring network started collecting data in 1978.  Coral health was fairly steady until 1998 when the first mass bleaching event occurred, triggered by a powerful El Niño event.  For the next 12 years, corals recovered nicely, but then bleaching events in 2010 and 2015-17 took their toll.

The Pacific, Australia, and the Caribbean have all seen major decreases in coral.  The Coral Triangle is a major exception which is thought to be a result of genetic diversity among the region’s corals.

Coral conservationists globally are working to protect corals and to actively restore them.  The situation is fairly dire, but there continue to be reasons for hope.

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Finding Bright Spots in the Global Coral Reef Catastrophe

Photo, posted October 13, 2015, courtesy of Albert Straub via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected | Earth Wise

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It is widely believed that electrification is the future for vehicles.  The only question is how long the transition will take.  Predictions are all over the map, but the recent trend is to revise those predictions to say it will happen sooner than previously thought.

A recent report from the international accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that EV sales in the US, China, and Europe will surpass those of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles five years sooner than previously expected.  The report forecasts that fossil-fueled vehicles will represent less than 1% of global sales by 2045, taking their place among other historical but essentially abandoned technologies.

Europe is expected to be the leader in EV adoption.  The forecast is that EVs will surpass legacy vehicles by 2028.  China is expected to follow by 2033.  The US is lagging behind, but even here, electrics are expected to achieve a majority of car sales by 2036.

Plug-in vehicle sales have surpassed a 10% market share in California and Tesla now has a 1.7% share of the total US car market.  Norway is the global EV leader with 3 out of 4 car buyers choosing electrics.  In that country, Tesla’s Model 3 is the top-selling vehicle of any kind.  In Switzerland, 40% of car sales are EVs or hybrids.

There are many variables that will affect the timetable for the EV transition.  Among them are the timetable for widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology, the effects of policy initiatives by governments around the world, the development of charging infrastructure, and the evolution of electricity generation and energy storage.

In any case, looking at the product roadmap for virtually every automobile manufacturer makes it clear that electric cars are the future.

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Ernst & Young: Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected

Photo, posted April 25, 2021, courtesy of Rutger van der Maar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

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In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Tough Day For Big Oil | Earth Wise

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May 26th was a difficult day for big oil.  Three major setbacks for the industry occurred on the same day.

A Dutch court ruled in a case against Shell, ordering the company to cut emissions by 2030 in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  The case was brought by climate activists, ultimately comprising 17,000 co-plaintiffs.  The ruling will probably be appealed but it does represent a major precedent for holding polluters accountable for their actions.

That same day, shareholders of ExxonMobil replaced at least two of the company’s board members with candidates dedicated to decarbonizing the company. Having two board seats filled by climate supporters is not likely to radically transform the company, but it is a powerful rebuke of Exxon’s iconic business model of “drill, baby, drill”.

Finally, Chevron’s shareholder meeting on May 26th saw 61% of shareholders voting for the company to reduce its so-called Scope 3 emissions, meaning the pollution from all the fossil fuels it sells.  In addition, 48% of shareholders voted to demand a report on Chevron’s dark money lobbying.  That initiative did not carry, but nevertheless, nearly half of the company’s shareholders expressed concern about how Chevron is corrupting the political process in order to achieve its ends.

These events are examples of mainstream activism where the pressure on fossil fuel companies is not just coming from the usual environmental activists but rather from shareholders, who after all actually own the companies.  The fossil fuel industry still wields enormous power, but it appears increasingly possible to challenge it and even to win.

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A landmark day in the fight against fossil fuels

Photo, posted August 15, 2014, courtesy of Mike Mozart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Should We Block The Sun? | Earth Wise

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There is growing concern that greenhouse gas emissions are not falling quickly enough to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.  As a result, there is the impetus to examine other options.  Among these are geoengineering, which is one of the most contentious issues in climate policy.  Geoengineering embodies many risks that make even seriously considering it seem risky in itself.

Despite this, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine has issued a report saying that governments urgently need to know whether solar geoengineering could work and what its side effects might be.

Solar geoengineering is also called solar radiation modification, which entails reflecting more of the sun’s energy back into space.  This would likely be accomplished by injecting aerosols into the atmosphere, much like what happens after large volcanic eruptions.

Schemes for solar geoengineering raise numerous issues.  Although solar geoengineering might cool the earth’s surface to a global temperature target, the cooling may not be evenly distributed, affecting many ecosystem functions and biodiversity.   It would likely upset regional weather patterns in potentially devastating ways, for example by changing the behavior of the monsoon in South Asia.  It might dangerously relax public commitments to reduce greenhouse emissions. 

Despite these concerns, or perhaps because of them, the committee that produced the report believes that technology to reflect sunlight deserves substantial funding and should be researched as rapidly and effectively as possible.  Once any geoengineering projects get into the hands of policymakers, they may gather momentum that bypasses the advice of scientists.  So, it important to make progress on the science while geoengineering is still only theoretical.

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Should We Block the Sun? Scientists Say the Time Has Come to Study It.

To intervene or not to intervene? That is the future climate question

Photo, posted August 3, 2018, courtesy of Tomasz Baranowski via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Search For Lingering Ash | Earth Wise

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Ash trees are some of the most important plants along riverbanks and in wetlands.  There are three ash species in North America:  the white, green, and black ash.  Unfortunately, all three species are critically endangered because of the emerald ash borer.

The emerald ash borer is an exotic beetle from Asia that first showed up in the U.S. in southeastern Michigan in the summer of 2002.  The adult beetles do little damage but the larvae feed on the inner bark of ash trees and disrupt the tree’s ability to transport water and nutrients.  The beetles are now found in 35 states and 5 Canadian provinces and have killed hundreds of millions of ash trees.

The greatest hope for preserving ash tree species relates to lingering ash, which are those rare trees that have managed to survive the onslaught of the emerald ash borer. The idea is that those trees have some natural genetic resistance to the borer.  Getting seeds and cuttings from lingering ash and propagating them at nurseries may be the only way to get ash trees back into the natural landscape.

Lingering ash are extremely rare and therefore very hard to find.  As a result, researchers are reaching out to the public to help with the search and report the presence of these surviving trees in woodlands.

Researchers want to find large, mature trees left among those that were killed by the invasive insect and therefore display great resilience.  In Kentucky, university and Division of Forestry researchers are making use of software tools to engage the assistance of the public. An app called TreeSnap allows people to provide data on trees that they find in their community, on their property, or out in the wild.

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Researchers Ask Public for Help Finding Lingering Ash Trees

Help Our Nation’s Trees!

Photo, posted May 31, 2014, courtesy of Katja Schulz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Large Drop In U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions | Earth Wise

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Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. in 2020 are on track to be at their lowest level in nearly 30 years as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.  U.S. emissions haven’t been this low since 1983, when the economy was not even 40% of its current size.

According to a new study by the research group BloombergNEF, U.S. emissions for the year will be 9% lower than they were in 2019, which will be the largest yearly drop on record.  The report also anticipates that whatever happens in the pandemic, 2021 emissions will be well below pre-COVID levels as well.

The pandemic has inadvertently put the U.S. back on track to meet its original commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement, despite the fact that we have pulled out the agreement.  The incoming administration plans to return the U.S. to the pact.

Overall, U.S. emissions have been trending downward since 2008, primarily as a result of the lower dependence of the power sector on coal.  The report estimates that in the absence of the pandemic, 2020 emissions would have been 1% lower than last year’s.

The dramatic drop in emissions is not really a great cause for celebration.  Achieving significant emission reductions through massive economic hardship and societal disruption does not point the way towards making progress on climate change.  The economic upturn that will undoubtedly occur when the pandemic loses its grip on the world will lead to rebounding levels of greenhouse gas emissions.  But as is the case with all major crises, the current situation does present a chance to turn this temporary downturn in emissions into a more permanent one by making appropriate investments and policy changes.

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Due to COVID-19, 2020 greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are predicted to drop to lowest level in three decades

Photo, posted January 13, 2013, courtesy of Onnola via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Mega-Droughts | Earth Wise

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According to a new report led by researchers from the University of Queensland in Australia, mega-droughts are expected to increase as global temperatures rise with the progression of climate change.  While mega-droughts have no strict scientific definition, most studies – including this one – define them as prolonged droughts lasting two decades or longer. 

The research team analyzed geological records from the Eemian Period – 129,000 to 116,000 years ago – to create a model of what to expect over the next 20-50 years.  The Eemian Period is the most recent in Earth’s history when global temperatures were similar – or maybe even slightly warmer – than they are today. 

By analyzing the climate during this period, the research team found that the world will likely experience increased water scarcity, reduced winter snow cover, more frequent wildfires and wind erosion as a result of global warming.

In the report, which was recently issued by the University of Queensland, the researchers collaborated with the New South Wales Parks and Wildlife Service to identify stalagmites in the northern section of Kosciuszko National Park.  They were able to study small samples of calcium carbonate powder contained in the cave stalagmites, allowing them to identify periods of reduced precipitation during the Eemian Period. 

Historically, mega-droughts have been associated with mass exoduses of people from the affected areas.  In fact, mega-droughts are suspected of contributing to the collapse of several pre-industrial civilizations across Southeast Asia and the Americas.

If humans continue to warm the planet, the researchers say more mega-droughts will be in our future.

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Expect more mega-droughts

Photo, posted March 28, 2014, courtesy of Marufish via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)