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paris climate agreement

Fossil fuel producing nations ignoring climate goals

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The Paris Climate Agreement has the primary goal of limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and preferably 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  Meeting this goal involves reaching global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century.  Doing so requires the substantial adoption of renewable energy sources to replace fossil fuels.

The case for switching away from fossil fuels has never been stronger as the effects of the warming climate have become increasingly evident, the economics of renewable energy have become more and more favorable, and popular support for the changeover has continued to grow.  Despite all this, the world’s largest fossil fuel producers have expanded their planned output for the future, thereby pushing the world towards an ever-warmer climate.

According to the latest Production Gap Report produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, governments now expect to produce more than twice as much coal, oil, and gas in 2030 as would be consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.  The increase is driven by a slower projected phaseout of coal and a higher outlook for gas production by some of the top producers, including China and the United States.

The United States is the most dramatic case of a country recommitting to fossil fuels.  This year, Congress has enacted billions of dollars in new subsidies to oil and gas companies and the Trump administration has forced retiring coal plants to continue operating, expanded mining and drilling access on public lands, and delayed deadlines for drillers to comply with limits on methane pollution.  Meanwhile, it has set new roadblocks for building wind and solar energy projects.

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Top Fossil Fuel Producing Nations Plan to Blow Past Climate Targets

Photo, posted May 15, 2020, courtesy of James Watt via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Shrinking coal and the gas trap

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An important part of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is reducing the use of coal to produce electricity.  Coal is the dirtiest fuel in common use and not burning it is a way to greatly reduce emissions.  Ten years later, coal consumption around the world has decreased dramatically. 

The most convenient alternative to coal is natural gas, which is still a fossil fuel, but one that releases less carbon than coal.  As a result, around the world many countries have increasingly switched from coal to natural gas.

While the switch is a step in the right direction, it is also one that comes with an unintended consequence.  Economists at Stanford University have found that natural gas exports by countries have the effect of discouraging investments in renewable energy.  Over the long term, the result is increases in carbon emissions.  The Stanford researchers refer to this situation as ‘the gas trap’.

As a result of the gas trap, even countries that are very concerned about climate change and want to take action by abandoning the use of coal may end up reducing their investments in renewables and, ultimately, producing more emissions.

This problem comes about because replacing fossil fuels with renewables requires large investments and can take years before the renewables can fully compete with coal.  Natural gas, as a “transition fuel” gives countries time to develop renewable solutions.  But natural gas producers keep providing large amounts of their product at attractive prices so that customers buy more and more of it rather than investing in renewables.  The gas trap isn’t permanent or inevitable, but it is currently a problem.

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How the rush to quit coal is fueling a new ‘gas trap’

Photo, posted February 7, 2017, courtesy of Christian Collins via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

New highs for carbon dioxide

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Last year was the hottest year on record and the ten hottest years on record have in fact been the last ten years.  Ocean heat reached a record high last year and, along with it, global sea levels.  Those are rising twice as fast as they did in the 1990s.

The World Meteorological Organization reports that the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide reached a new observed high in 2023, which is the latest year for which global annual figures are available.  The level was 420 ppm, which is the highest level it has been in 800,000 years. 

The increase in carbon dioxide levels was the fourth largest one-year change since modern measurement began in the 1950s.  The rate of growth is typically higher in El Niño years because of increases from fire emissions and reduced terrestrial carbon sinks.

Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide – which are two other key greenhouse gases – also reached record high observed levels in 2023.  Levels of both of these gases have also continued to increase in 2024.

The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2024 was 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.  Apart from being the warmest year in the 175 years records have been kept, it is also above the 1.5-degree limit set as the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement.  While a single year above 1.5 degrees of warming does not mean that the efforts to limit global warming have failed, it is a strong warning that the risks to human lives, economies, and the planet are increasing.

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Carbon Dioxide Levels Highest in 800,000 Years

Photo, posted January 30, 2018, courtesy of Johannes Grim via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The warmest year on record

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It came as no surprise that 2024 ended up as the warmest year on records. It was the hottest year since record keeping began in 1880.  The global average temperature was 1.28 degrees Celsius (or 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th-century baseline period of 1951-1980.  It was actually 1.47 degrees above the 1850-1900 average.

The Paris Climate Agreement has a goal to keep the global average temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the long term.  Long term is specified because for more than half of 2024, average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees above the baseline.

The temperature of an individual year can be influenced by various natural climate fluctuations, such as the presence of an El Niño or a La Niña condition in the Pacific, or volcanic eruptions.  A strong El Niño began in 2023 and continued throughout much of 2024.  That El Niño has abated, so it is no longer a factor in the global climate condition.

The global temperature is determined using surface air temperature data collected from thousands of meteorological stations as well as sea surface temperature data collected by ships and buoy-based instruments. 

When the climate changes, it is observed first in the global mean temperature.  Then there are changes seen on a continental scale and then at the regional scale.  Finally, changes are observable at the local level.  These changes are becoming more and more common as people’s everyday weather experiences become different from any they had encountered before.

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2024 Was the Warmest Year on Record

Photo, posted August 26, 2015, courtesy of Saskia Madlener / NASA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The UN Carbon Market

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The UN climate conference in November approved an official market for large-scale trading of carbon credits.  This will allow industrial countries to help meet their emission reduction targets set by the Paris Climate Agreement by paying other nations to protect and restore forests and carbon-rich peatlands.

The first major participant in this multi-billion-dollar enterprise is Indonesia.  That country is home to the world’s third largest expanse of tropical rainforests and more than a third of the world’s carbon-storing peatlands.  Indonesia’s government plans to raise up to $65 billion by 2028 by selling carbon credits accrued by restoring and protecting its forests and peatlands.

The problem with carbon trading is that it can be filled with loopholes ranging from inaccurate carbon accounting to outright fraud.  Carbon trading with both individual companies and other countries can result in double- and even triple-counting of the same carbon.

For example, carbon credits are assigned when forests earmarked for agricultural or other development are preserved instead of being felled.  But what if that forest destruction wasn’t going to happen even without selling carbon credits? 

There are organizations in the business of verifying carbon accounting, but independent analysis of their methodologies has revealed serious shortcomings, and in many cases, the verifications have been deemed to be worthless.

There are real problems with carbon accounting and setting correct baselines for the carbon emission reductions associated with carbon credits.  Nevertheless, the existence of a global carbon market can be an important tool in the world’s efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change.

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Will UN Carbon Market Work? Indonesia Will Provide First Test

Photo, posted June 12, 2017, courtesy of Runa S. Lindebjerg via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The impact of climate change on agriculture

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Agriculture is a major part of the climate problem and remains one of the hardest human activities to decarbonize.  Agriculture is responsible for approximately 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

On farms around the world, excess fertilizer gets broken down by microbes in the soil, releasing nitrous oxide into the atmosphere.  Nitrous oxide is a greenhouse gas that is 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

According to a sweeping global research review recently published in the journal Science, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are now 18 times higher than they were in the 1960s. 

The research, which was co-written by professors at the University of Minnesota with more than 20 experts around the world, also reveals the likelihood of an emergent feedback loop between climate and agriculture.  As the changing climate puts more pressure on the global food supply, agriculture will, out of necessity, adopt practices that may exacerbate its environmental impact. Without changes in agriculture, this feedback loop could make it impossible to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

The research identifies several agricultural practices that could improve efficiency and stabilize our food supply in the decades to come, including precision farming, perennial crop integration, agrivoltaics, nitrogen fixation, and novel genome editing. 

Finding ways to reduce the warming impact of agriculture while maintaining high crop yields are essential to both mitigating climate change and protecting our food supply from its impacts.

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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Suggests Even Greater Challenges to the Environment, Global Food Supply and Public Health

Photo, posted October 16, 2010, courtesy of Timlewisnm via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

And the heat goes on

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August 2024 was the hottest August in the 175-years for which there are global records.  The last full month of summer also wrapped up the Northern Hemisphere‘s warmest summer on record.

The average global surface temperature in August was 62.39 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 2.29 degrees above the 20th century August average.  Furthermore, August was the 15th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures, which is a record in and of itself.

Regionally, Europe and Oceana had their warmest August on record.  Asia had its second-warmest August, and Africa and North America had their third-warmest August.

The summer in the Northern Hemisphere was a record-breaker with a temperature 2.74 degrees Fahrenheit above average.  Thinking about climate goals, this is 1.52 degrees Celsius above average, which is a troubling amount.  Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, where it was winter in the June-to-August period, it was also the warmest ever with a temperature 1.73 degrees Fahrenheit above average.

Globally, this year to date ranks as the warmest ever recorded with a temperature 2.3 degrees above the 20th-century average.  With a few months to go, the prediction is that there is a 97% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

Other aspects of the global climate system were consistent with these record-breaking temperatures.  The global ocean surface temperature for June through August was the warmest on record. 

These monthly climate reports have an unfortunate similarity:  the heat goes on.

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Earth had its hottest August in 175-year record

Photo, posted June 22, 2021, courtesy of Vicky Brock via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Weather extremes for most people

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Scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway along with researchers at the University of Reading in the UK have analyzed how global warming can combine with normal variations in the weather to produce decades-long periods of very rapid changes involving both extreme temperatures and extreme amounts of rainfall.

Many parts of the world have already been experiencing record temperatures and extreme rainfall events.  Previously, most analyses of the changing climate have focused on the global mean and not on the impact of extreme weather on specific countries.

The study made use of large climate model simulations to show that if global emissions continue on the path they have been on, large parts of the tropics and subtropics – which are home to 70% of the world’s population – are expected to experience strong rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years.  But even if there is strong emissions mitigation – meaning that emissions are reduced enough to reach the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement – the expectation is that 20% of the world’s population will face extreme weather risks. 

These extreme events currently account for a disproportionate share of the realized impacts of climate change.  Heatwaves cause heat stress and excess mortality of both people and livestock.  Extreme precipitation leads to flooding, damage to settlements, infrastructure, crops, and ecosystems, as well as to reduced water quality. 

Society will be increasingly vulnerable to these extreme events, especially when multiple hazards occur at the same time.

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Extreme weather to strengthen rapidly over next two decades

Photo, posted May 20, 2024, courtesy of Dale Cruse via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How warm is It?

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As of June, the world had seen 13 consecutive months of record-breaking heat.  The average global temperature over the last 12 of those months measured 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the preindustrial era. This means that the world has at least temporarily exceeded the temperature target set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Does this mean that climate change has gotten to the point where keeping temperatures below that goal is no longer possible? Not necessarily. Temperatures could drop below the 1.5-degree level in the near future.

The world has certainly been warming as a result of climate change, but the spike in temperature for the past year has also been driven by an El Niño condition in the Pacific, which leads to warmer temperatures.  How much of the warming is a result of each factor is not known.

But scientists say that El Niño has ended in June and a La Niña condition is likely to take shape between August and October. This would lead to cooler temperatures in many places.

Despite the extensive and lingering heatwaves in the US in July, on a global scale, temperatures have actually started falling in July.  July may end up being the first month since June 2023 to not set a new monthly global temperature record.  Nevertheless, the long streak of record-high temperatures is no statistical anomaly.  It is indicative of a large and continuing shift in the climate.   Whether conditions in the Pacific produce an El Niño or a La Niña, the steady long-term warming will continue as long as human-generated carbon emissions continue.

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How Bad Is Warming? La Niña May Reveal

Photo, posted September 19, 2022, courtesy of Paul Sableman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How will we know if the world is 1.5 degrees warmer?

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The Paris Climate Agreement has a goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.  How do we know if we are succeeding and, more importantly, how would we know if we have failed?

This may seem like something fairly obvious, but it isn’t.  Global temperatures are definitely creeping upward.  This past year has been the warmest on record.  In fact, the global average temperature was more than 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  November was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  So, does that mean that our climate goals have already failed?  Not really.

On a monthly scale there have already been individual months where warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2023.  Would an entire year above the target constitute failure?  Not necessarily.  There really isn’t an agreed-upon answer and that in itself represents something that could undermine global efforts to tackle climate change.

If we don’t know whether we are succeeding or failing, it is more difficult to pursue success.  The United Nations IPCC says the threshold will be surpassed when average warming exceeds 1.5 degrees for 20 years.  But that seems like a building a mountain highway with no guardrails and hoping to be safe.

Scientists are calling for new approaches to defining a universally agreed-upon measure of global warming that could trigger urgent action to avoid further rises.  What we really don’t need are justifications and excuses for continued inaction.  Clearly the climate is not waiting for us to debate the issue.

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Why We Won’t Know When We’ve Passed the 1.5-Degree Threshold

Photo, posted August 2, 2018, courtesy of J Bartlett Team Rubicon/BLM for USFS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Steel Furnaces | Earth Wise

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Steel was first made thousands of years ago.  The discovery that heating up iron ore in a hot enough charcoal fire could purify the iron into a strong and valuable material was the start of the Iron Age.  In many ways, things have changed very little since then.

Global iron and steel production accounts for 7% of society’s carbon emissions. Making steel generally involves burning coal in a blast furnace to produce the very high temperatures required to turn iron into steel.  The coal is used both as a feedstock and as a fuel.  Steel is made from iron and a substance called coke, which is basically coal that has been carbonized at high temperatures.  Coal itself is burned to provide the high temperatures needed.

A new analysis from the Global Energy Monitor think tank shows that the global steel industry is slowly embracing electric-arc furnaces to produce the necessary heat, which is a cleaner alternative.  The analysis found that 43% of forthcoming steelmaking capacity will rely on electric-arc furnaces, up from 33% last year.

According to the study, the shift to cleaner steel is not happening fast enough.  To meet the emissions reductions goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, electric-arc furnaces must account for 53% of global steelmaking capacity by 2050.  Based on the current plans, those furnaces would only account for 32% of total capacity by that year.

In order to meet these goals, the steel industry will need to retire or cancel about 381 million tons of coal-based manufacturing capacity and add 670 million tons of electric-arc furnace capacity. 

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Steel Industry Pivoting to Electric Furnaces, Analysis Shows

Photo, posted March 3, 2012, courtesy of Jeronimo Nisa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Europe Is Warming Very Quickly | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, Europe is warming faster than any other inhabited continent.  The result of the rising temperatures has been increasingly severe heat waves, flood, and wildfires.

The Paris Climate Agreement has set a goal of limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if at all possible, to no more than 1.5 degrees.  To date, the planet has warmed by 1.2 degrees and, with greenhouse gas emissions continuing at record levels, the temperature keeps going up.

These numbers refer to the global average.  Some places have warmed more and others less.  The Arctic has been warming four times quicker than the rest of the world.  In terms of direct impact on large populations, Europe has already surpassed the 2-degree mark, having reached 2.3 degrees last year.  In 2022, many countries in western and southwestern Europe had their warmest year on record. Weather-related economic damages totaled $2 billion, mostly as a result of storms and floods.

Europe is trying to do its part in mitigating climate change by making major gains on clean energy.  Wind and solar generated 22% of Europe’s power in 2022, which is more than either natural gas or coal produced.  Europe is trying to do its share, but the warming climate is a global phenomenon and will require a global effort to mitigate its effects.

The record-breaking heat stress experienced by Europeans last year cannot be considered a one-off occurrence.  It is part of a pattern that will make weather extremes more frequent and more intense over time.

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The Fastest-Warming Continent, Europe Has Already Heated by More Than 2 Degrees C

Photo, posted September 26, 2011, courtesy of Ben Ramirez via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Enormous Cost Of Steel Corrosion | Earth Wise

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Global steel production has been rising for decades.  Because steel corrodes over time, part of the demand for more steel comes from the need to replace the steel used in construction materials – in everything from bridges to cars – that has become corroded over time.  Studies have estimated that the economic cost of corrosion is an astonishing 3 to 4% of a nation’s gross domestic product.  Globally, this means that steel corrosion costs the world trillions – yes, trillions with a T – of dollars each year.

On top of the staggering economic impact of corrosion, there is the fact that steel production is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters of any industry, accounting for more than 25% of all manufacturing sector carbon emissions.  In fact, steel manufacturing causes over 10% of total global carbon emissions.  

As a result of regulations placed on the steel industry, technological advances in the steelmaking process have resulted in a 61% reduction in the industry’s energy consumption over the last 50 years.   There are continuing efforts to reduce the energy consumption of steel making and to move away from the use of fossil fuels to produce the needed energy.  But without significant improvements, just the emissions associated with replacing corroded steel could make the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement unfeasible.

It’s hard to believe that something costing the world trillions of dollars and has a major negative impact on the climate is largely invisible.  Steel corrosion is an enormous societal challenge that has gone under the  radar for decades and therefore has not received anything like the attention it deserves.

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Reducing steel corrosion vital to combating climate change

Photo, posted July 24, 2008, courtesy of Phil Whitehouse via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Propane Refrigerants | Earth Wise

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About 10% of the world’s total electricity supply is used for air conditioning.  If current temperature trends continue, the energy demands for space cooling will more than triple by the year 2050.  Air conditioning is a double threat to the environment.  Apart from using lots of energy, ACs also make use of halogenated refrigerants that are extremely powerful greenhouse gases.

The most common space cooling appliances are split-air conditioners, which use an indoor unit and an outdoor unit connected by pipes.  These split ACS mostly utilize HCFC-22 and HFC-410 as refrigerants, which have global warming potential scores as high as 2,256 – meaning they trap 2,256 times more heat than carbon dioxide. 

A study by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Austria has shown that propane is a far better choice as an air conditioning refrigerant.  Its global warming potential is actually less than 1 meaning it traps less heat than carbon dioxide.  According to the study, if air conditioners switched to propane refrigerants, the world would avoid about a tenth of a degree Celsius of additional warming, which is a significant contribution to meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Propane-based split-ACs are already available commercially in China and India.  Elsewhere, many national regulations prohibit their use, primarily due to codes restricting the use of refrigerants with higher flammability.  Given the increasingly urgent need for climate action, it seems to be time to reconsider regulations on refrigerants.

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Propane — a solution for more sustainable air conditioning

Photo, posted March 24, 2021, courtesy of Phyxter Home Services via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Primary Ways To Mitigate Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The most recent report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the world must halt the increase in greenhouse gases within three years, reduce emissions by 43% in the next seven years, and eliminate them entirely by 2050.  Otherwise, there will likely be catastrophic and irreversible impacts on the climate.

With respect to achieving these reductions, the report emphasizes decarbonizing the energy sector through electrification by replacing fossil fuels anywhere and everywhere possible.  Where that isn’t yet practical – such as in shipping and aviation – the use of biofuels and hydrogen can provide a stopgap until battery technology becomes a viable alternative.

The economics of this approach continue to improve.  Since 2010, the cost of wind, solar, and batteries has declined by as much as 85%.  In many cases, costs have fallen below those of fossil fuels.  Nonetheless, the report stresses that continuing to provide national, state, and local incentives for using renewable energy is a key factor in achieving the necessary reductions.

However, reducing emissions will no longer be enough.  This is the first major IPCC report that states that man-made carbon dioxide removal strategies will be necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  So-called natural carbon storage options, like planting trees and using farming methods that sequester carbon in soil, are also important parts of the strategy.

It is up to governments, policymakers, and investors to implement the necessary changes to mitigate climate change.  There is lots of talk about it, but it will take concerted action to avoid increasingly dire consequences.

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Report highlights affordable, available ways to mitigate climate change now

Photo, posted September 8, 2007, courtesy of Kevin Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Winter Olympics | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Waterloo in Canada, climate change will limit where the Winter Olympics can be held as winter changes across the Northern Hemisphere. 

The international research team found that by the end of the century only one of the 21 cities that have previously hosted the Winter Olympics would be able to reliably provide fair and safe conditions for winter sports if global greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically reduced. 

However, if the emissions targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement can be reached, the number of climate-reliable host cities for the Winter Olympics would jump to eight.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, the researchers reviewed historical climate data from the 1920s to today, as well as future climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s.  The researchers also surveyed international athletes and coaches, and found that 89% of them felt that changing weather patterns are already affecting competition conditions. 

The average February daytime temperature of host cities has been steadily increasing.  At the winter games held between the 1920s and 1950s, the average temperature was 32.7°F.  It rose to 37.6°F at games between the 1960s and 1990s, and has spiked to 43.3°F in the games held in the twenty-first century.  The planet is projected to warm another 3.6°F to 7.9°F this century depending on our ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions is critical to ensure that there remain places across the globe to host the Winter Olympics.

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Climate change threatens future Winter Olympics

Photo, posted February 21, 2010, courtesy of Michael via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Carbon From 25 Cities | Earth Wise

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There are roughly 10,000 cities in the world, defined as places with at least 50,000 inhabitants with a sufficient population density.  Roughly half the world’s population lives in cities.

Urban carbon emissions are one of the world’s biggest problems with respect to the climate.  A new study has determined that just 25 cities globally are responsible for 52% of urban greenhouse gas emissions.

The study gathered data on greenhouse gas emissions in 167 cities in 53 countries.  The results were that megacities in Asia, such as Shanghai and Tokyo, were among the biggest total emitters, and that major cities in Europe, the US, and Australia tended to have larger per capita emissions.  Several Chinese cities, however, matched levels seen in developed countries.  Researchers tracked emissions over time in 42 of the cities studied.  Some cities saw declining emissions in the period between 2005 and 2016.  These included Oslo, Houston, Seattle, and Bogota.  Others saw large increases, including Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, and Venice.

The largest sources of emissions are power generation, industry, and transportation.  In a third of the cities, road transportation alone accounted for over 30% of emissions.  (Railways, waterways, and aviation combined only accounted for less than 15% of total emissions).

Half of the world’s population lives in cities, but cities are responsible for more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions.  Thus, cities have a big responsibility for the decarbonization of the global economy.  Of the 167 cities in the study, 113 have set emission-reduction targets.  But as the study shows, cities have much more work to do to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Two Dozen Large Cities Produce 52 Percent of Urban Carbon Emissions

Photo, posted December 1, 2017, courtesy of Hector Galbis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Kenya’s Tana River Basin | Earth Wise

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The Tana River is the longest river and most important waterway in Kenya.  It flows 620 miles from its headwaters in the Abderdare mountain range and Mount Kenya to the Indian Ocean.  The Tana River produces approximately half of the country’s electricity, and supplies Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, with 80% of its water.   

According to the United Nations Environment Programme, eight million people live along the Tana River, where coffee, tea, corn and other crops are grown for export, and fishing and cattle grazing help produce food for large portions of the country’s population. 

But the long-term ability of the river to provide these and other essential services is increasingly under threat due to many factors, including pollution, soil erosion, deforestation, and poor land use practices.   

Climate change is also complicating matters.  According to new research from the University of East Anglia, many species within the Tana River Basin will be unable to survive if global temperatures continue to rise at the current pace.  However, the study, which was recently published in the journal PLOS ONE, also found that many of these species could be saved if the world could meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. 

Globally, climate and land use changes are the two biggest threats to biodiversity.  According to researchers, 36% of the Tana River Basin has already been converted to agriculture. 

The research team says stronger commitments on climate change are needed from global leaders.  The climate and biodiversity crises can only be solved with urgent action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. 

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The impact of climate change on Kenya’s Tana river basin

Economics of Ecosystem Services of the Tana River Basin

Photo, posted August 19, 2010, courtesy of Luigi Guarino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Is Peak Oil Here? | Earth Wise

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For many years there has been talk of “peak oil”, the point at which rising world oil consumption would peak and then start declining.  Some analysts have been predicting that this could happen by the 2030s.   But the coronavirus pandemic drove a 9% slump in oil demand in 2020 that some economists are saying might never be entirely reversed.

There are three major forces driving down the world’s appetite for oil:  decarbonization of economies to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, declining demand for oil as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are increasingly adopted, and detoxification as cities act to curb particulates and emissions from burning petroleum.

The largest single factor is electric vehicles.  Automobiles currently consume almost half of the world’s oil.  As of the end of 2020, there were an estimated 10 million electric cars as well as more than 600,000 electric buses and trucks.  This is still less than 1% of all vehicles, but 5% of all new cars being bought are now electric and the number is growing rapidly.  Experts estimate that nearly a quarter of global car sales will be electric vehicles by 2025 and many car manufacturers are promising to sell only electric cars within the next 10 years.

The decline in oil demand is pretty much inevitable at this point.  The main question is how quickly it will happen.  Road transport makes up 48% of global oil demand, petrochemicals account for 14%, aviation 7%, and shipping 6%.  Ultimately all these things are likely to diminish over time. 

Only time will tell, but the long-awaited arrival of peak oil may already have happened.

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Amid Troubles for Fossil Fuels, Has the Era of ‘Peak Oil’ Arrived?

Photo, posted April 14, 2019, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Tough Day For Big Oil | Earth Wise

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May 26th was a difficult day for big oil.  Three major setbacks for the industry occurred on the same day.

A Dutch court ruled in a case against Shell, ordering the company to cut emissions by 2030 in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  The case was brought by climate activists, ultimately comprising 17,000 co-plaintiffs.  The ruling will probably be appealed but it does represent a major precedent for holding polluters accountable for their actions.

That same day, shareholders of ExxonMobil replaced at least two of the company’s board members with candidates dedicated to decarbonizing the company. Having two board seats filled by climate supporters is not likely to radically transform the company, but it is a powerful rebuke of Exxon’s iconic business model of “drill, baby, drill”.

Finally, Chevron’s shareholder meeting on May 26th saw 61% of shareholders voting for the company to reduce its so-called Scope 3 emissions, meaning the pollution from all the fossil fuels it sells.  In addition, 48% of shareholders voted to demand a report on Chevron’s dark money lobbying.  That initiative did not carry, but nevertheless, nearly half of the company’s shareholders expressed concern about how Chevron is corrupting the political process in order to achieve its ends.

These events are examples of mainstream activism where the pressure on fossil fuel companies is not just coming from the usual environmental activists but rather from shareholders, who after all actually own the companies.  The fossil fuel industry still wields enormous power, but it appears increasingly possible to challenge it and even to win.

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A landmark day in the fight against fossil fuels

Photo, posted August 15, 2014, courtesy of Mike Mozart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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