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Propane Refrigerants | Earth Wise

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About 10% of the world’s total electricity supply is used for air conditioning.  If current temperature trends continue, the energy demands for space cooling will more than triple by the year 2050.  Air conditioning is a double threat to the environment.  Apart from using lots of energy, ACs also make use of halogenated refrigerants that are extremely powerful greenhouse gases.

The most common space cooling appliances are split-air conditioners, which use an indoor unit and an outdoor unit connected by pipes.  These split ACS mostly utilize HCFC-22 and HFC-410 as refrigerants, which have global warming potential scores as high as 2,256 – meaning they trap 2,256 times more heat than carbon dioxide. 

A study by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Austria has shown that propane is a far better choice as an air conditioning refrigerant.  Its global warming potential is actually less than 1 meaning it traps less heat than carbon dioxide.  According to the study, if air conditioners switched to propane refrigerants, the world would avoid about a tenth of a degree Celsius of additional warming, which is a significant contribution to meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Propane-based split-ACs are already available commercially in China and India.  Elsewhere, many national regulations prohibit their use, primarily due to codes restricting the use of refrigerants with higher flammability.  Given the increasingly urgent need for climate action, it seems to be time to reconsider regulations on refrigerants.

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Propane — a solution for more sustainable air conditioning

Photo, posted March 24, 2021, courtesy of Phyxter Home Services via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Primary Ways To Mitigate Climate Change | Earth Wise

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The most recent report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the world must halt the increase in greenhouse gases within three years, reduce emissions by 43% in the next seven years, and eliminate them entirely by 2050.  Otherwise, there will likely be catastrophic and irreversible impacts on the climate.

With respect to achieving these reductions, the report emphasizes decarbonizing the energy sector through electrification by replacing fossil fuels anywhere and everywhere possible.  Where that isn’t yet practical – such as in shipping and aviation – the use of biofuels and hydrogen can provide a stopgap until battery technology becomes a viable alternative.

The economics of this approach continue to improve.  Since 2010, the cost of wind, solar, and batteries has declined by as much as 85%.  In many cases, costs have fallen below those of fossil fuels.  Nonetheless, the report stresses that continuing to provide national, state, and local incentives for using renewable energy is a key factor in achieving the necessary reductions.

However, reducing emissions will no longer be enough.  This is the first major IPCC report that states that man-made carbon dioxide removal strategies will be necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  So-called natural carbon storage options, like planting trees and using farming methods that sequester carbon in soil, are also important parts of the strategy.

It is up to governments, policymakers, and investors to implement the necessary changes to mitigate climate change.  There is lots of talk about it, but it will take concerted action to avoid increasingly dire consequences.

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Report highlights affordable, available ways to mitigate climate change now

Photo, posted September 8, 2007, courtesy of Kevin Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Winter Olympics | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Waterloo in Canada, climate change will limit where the Winter Olympics can be held as winter changes across the Northern Hemisphere. 

The international research team found that by the end of the century only one of the 21 cities that have previously hosted the Winter Olympics would be able to reliably provide fair and safe conditions for winter sports if global greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically reduced. 

However, if the emissions targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement can be reached, the number of climate-reliable host cities for the Winter Olympics would jump to eight.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, the researchers reviewed historical climate data from the 1920s to today, as well as future climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s.  The researchers also surveyed international athletes and coaches, and found that 89% of them felt that changing weather patterns are already affecting competition conditions. 

The average February daytime temperature of host cities has been steadily increasing.  At the winter games held between the 1920s and 1950s, the average temperature was 32.7°F.  It rose to 37.6°F at games between the 1960s and 1990s, and has spiked to 43.3°F in the games held in the twenty-first century.  The planet is projected to warm another 3.6°F to 7.9°F this century depending on our ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions is critical to ensure that there remain places across the globe to host the Winter Olympics.

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Climate change threatens future Winter Olympics

Photo, posted February 21, 2010, courtesy of Michael via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Carbon From 25 Cities | Earth Wise

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There are roughly 10,000 cities in the world, defined as places with at least 50,000 inhabitants with a sufficient population density.  Roughly half the world’s population lives in cities.

Urban carbon emissions are one of the world’s biggest problems with respect to the climate.  A new study has determined that just 25 cities globally are responsible for 52% of urban greenhouse gas emissions.

The study gathered data on greenhouse gas emissions in 167 cities in 53 countries.  The results were that megacities in Asia, such as Shanghai and Tokyo, were among the biggest total emitters, and that major cities in Europe, the US, and Australia tended to have larger per capita emissions.  Several Chinese cities, however, matched levels seen in developed countries.  Researchers tracked emissions over time in 42 of the cities studied.  Some cities saw declining emissions in the period between 2005 and 2016.  These included Oslo, Houston, Seattle, and Bogota.  Others saw large increases, including Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, and Venice.

The largest sources of emissions are power generation, industry, and transportation.  In a third of the cities, road transportation alone accounted for over 30% of emissions.  (Railways, waterways, and aviation combined only accounted for less than 15% of total emissions).

Half of the world’s population lives in cities, but cities are responsible for more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions.  Thus, cities have a big responsibility for the decarbonization of the global economy.  Of the 167 cities in the study, 113 have set emission-reduction targets.  But as the study shows, cities have much more work to do to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Two Dozen Large Cities Produce 52 Percent of Urban Carbon Emissions

Photo, posted December 1, 2017, courtesy of Hector Galbis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Kenya’s Tana River Basin | Earth Wise

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The Tana River is the longest river and most important waterway in Kenya.  It flows 620 miles from its headwaters in the Abderdare mountain range and Mount Kenya to the Indian Ocean.  The Tana River produces approximately half of the country’s electricity, and supplies Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, with 80% of its water.   

According to the United Nations Environment Programme, eight million people live along the Tana River, where coffee, tea, corn and other crops are grown for export, and fishing and cattle grazing help produce food for large portions of the country’s population. 

But the long-term ability of the river to provide these and other essential services is increasingly under threat due to many factors, including pollution, soil erosion, deforestation, and poor land use practices.   

Climate change is also complicating matters.  According to new research from the University of East Anglia, many species within the Tana River Basin will be unable to survive if global temperatures continue to rise at the current pace.  However, the study, which was recently published in the journal PLOS ONE, also found that many of these species could be saved if the world could meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. 

Globally, climate and land use changes are the two biggest threats to biodiversity.  According to researchers, 36% of the Tana River Basin has already been converted to agriculture. 

The research team says stronger commitments on climate change are needed from global leaders.  The climate and biodiversity crises can only be solved with urgent action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. 

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The impact of climate change on Kenya’s Tana river basin

Economics of Ecosystem Services of the Tana River Basin

Photo, posted August 19, 2010, courtesy of Luigi Guarino via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Is Peak Oil Here? | Earth Wise

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For many years there has been talk of “peak oil”, the point at which rising world oil consumption would peak and then start declining.  Some analysts have been predicting that this could happen by the 2030s.   But the coronavirus pandemic drove a 9% slump in oil demand in 2020 that some economists are saying might never be entirely reversed.

There are three major forces driving down the world’s appetite for oil:  decarbonization of economies to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, declining demand for oil as renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are increasingly adopted, and detoxification as cities act to curb particulates and emissions from burning petroleum.

The largest single factor is electric vehicles.  Automobiles currently consume almost half of the world’s oil.  As of the end of 2020, there were an estimated 10 million electric cars as well as more than 600,000 electric buses and trucks.  This is still less than 1% of all vehicles, but 5% of all new cars being bought are now electric and the number is growing rapidly.  Experts estimate that nearly a quarter of global car sales will be electric vehicles by 2025 and many car manufacturers are promising to sell only electric cars within the next 10 years.

The decline in oil demand is pretty much inevitable at this point.  The main question is how quickly it will happen.  Road transport makes up 48% of global oil demand, petrochemicals account for 14%, aviation 7%, and shipping 6%.  Ultimately all these things are likely to diminish over time. 

Only time will tell, but the long-awaited arrival of peak oil may already have happened.

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Amid Troubles for Fossil Fuels, Has the Era of ‘Peak Oil’ Arrived?

Photo, posted April 14, 2019, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Tough Day For Big Oil | Earth Wise

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May 26th was a difficult day for big oil.  Three major setbacks for the industry occurred on the same day.

A Dutch court ruled in a case against Shell, ordering the company to cut emissions by 2030 in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.  The case was brought by climate activists, ultimately comprising 17,000 co-plaintiffs.  The ruling will probably be appealed but it does represent a major precedent for holding polluters accountable for their actions.

That same day, shareholders of ExxonMobil replaced at least two of the company’s board members with candidates dedicated to decarbonizing the company. Having two board seats filled by climate supporters is not likely to radically transform the company, but it is a powerful rebuke of Exxon’s iconic business model of “drill, baby, drill”.

Finally, Chevron’s shareholder meeting on May 26th saw 61% of shareholders voting for the company to reduce its so-called Scope 3 emissions, meaning the pollution from all the fossil fuels it sells.  In addition, 48% of shareholders voted to demand a report on Chevron’s dark money lobbying.  That initiative did not carry, but nevertheless, nearly half of the company’s shareholders expressed concern about how Chevron is corrupting the political process in order to achieve its ends.

These events are examples of mainstream activism where the pressure on fossil fuel companies is not just coming from the usual environmental activists but rather from shareholders, who after all actually own the companies.  The fossil fuel industry still wields enormous power, but it appears increasingly possible to challenge it and even to win.

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A landmark day in the fight against fossil fuels

Photo, posted August 15, 2014, courtesy of Mike Mozart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Global Warming Could Stabilize | Earth Wise

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The world has been heading toward climate disaster with the effects of greenhouse gas-induced warming looming larger and larger.  But recent analysis published in Nature Climate Change offers hope that rapidly eliminating emissions could stabilize global temperatures just within a couple of decades.

For quite some time, it has been assumed that further global warming would be locked in for generations regardless of the extent of emissions reductions going forward.  This conclusion was based on having a certain carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere which would linger for hundreds of years even if emissions were reduced.

Recent analysis takes into account the dynamism of the Earth’s natural systems which could actually reduce atmospheric CO2 content because of the huge carbon absorption capacity of oceans, wetlands, and forests.  The key requirement is to drastically reduce emissions so that these natural systems can take over.

More than 100 countries have pledged to get to net zero emissions by 2050.  That means they will emit no more carbon dioxide than is removed from the atmosphere by such actions as restoring forests.   The UK, Japan, and the European Union are among the countries that have set this zero target, and the United States is joining the club.

Climate models show that a global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius over that of the pre-industrial period would lead to global calamities that include punishing heatwaves, flooding, and mass displacement of people.  The world has already heated up by 1.1 degrees and governments have committed to restrain the rise to less than 1.5 degrees under the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Global Warming Could Stabilize Faster than Originally Thought If Nations Achieve Net Zero

Photo, posted September 10, 2017, courtesy of Ron Cogswell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Large Drop In U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions | Earth Wise

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Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. in 2020 are on track to be at their lowest level in nearly 30 years as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.  U.S. emissions haven’t been this low since 1983, when the economy was not even 40% of its current size.

According to a new study by the research group BloombergNEF, U.S. emissions for the year will be 9% lower than they were in 2019, which will be the largest yearly drop on record.  The report also anticipates that whatever happens in the pandemic, 2021 emissions will be well below pre-COVID levels as well.

The pandemic has inadvertently put the U.S. back on track to meet its original commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement, despite the fact that we have pulled out the agreement.  The incoming administration plans to return the U.S. to the pact.

Overall, U.S. emissions have been trending downward since 2008, primarily as a result of the lower dependence of the power sector on coal.  The report estimates that in the absence of the pandemic, 2020 emissions would have been 1% lower than last year’s.

The dramatic drop in emissions is not really a great cause for celebration.  Achieving significant emission reductions through massive economic hardship and societal disruption does not point the way towards making progress on climate change.  The economic upturn that will undoubtedly occur when the pandemic loses its grip on the world will lead to rebounding levels of greenhouse gas emissions.  But as is the case with all major crises, the current situation does present a chance to turn this temporary downturn in emissions into a more permanent one by making appropriate investments and policy changes.

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Due to COVID-19, 2020 greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are predicted to drop to lowest level in three decades

Photo, posted January 13, 2013, courtesy of Onnola via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Renewables Could Take Over By 2035 | Earth Wise

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A study by UC Berkeley looked at the prospects for renewable energy sources to become the primary source of energy in the United States over the next 15 years.  Even though fossil fuels continue to fill that role at present, the plummeting costs of alternative energy sources – primarily solar and wind power – are making them increasingly attractive on the competitive market.

These cost reductions have occurred much faster than what was anticipated even just a few years ago.  According to the study, it is technically and economically feasible for renewable sources to provide 90% of our electricity by 2035.

The Berkeley researchers took the available data on renewable energy and created two scenarios for the next 15 years.  The first has energy policy remaining as it is now, without ambitious policy changes that encourage the growth of renewable energy.  In that scenario, they estimated that 55% of the US energy infrastructure would come from renewables.  That amount will not produce the change needed to meet Paris Climate Agreement goals but would simply come about because of the dramatically lower costs for renewable energy.

The second scenario includes state and federal governments leading the way to finance and facilitate the energy reform needed for a greener 2035.  It also relies on the large-scale use of grid-scale batteries to store the energy collected from solar and wind installations for when it is needed.

Which scenario is more realistic will depend on several major influential factors, notably the trajectory and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the results of the November elections.   These things will have a huge impact on the future of our energy system.

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Report: By 2035, 90 Percent of the US Could Be Powered by Renewables

Photo, posted May 25, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Extreme Wildfire Seasons | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers at Stanford University, autumn in California feels more like summer now as a result of climate change, and this hotter and drier weather increases the risk of longer and more dangerous wildfire seasons.

The research team, whose work was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that the frequency of extreme fire weather conditions in the fall in California has doubled since the early 1980s.  Average temperatures during the season have increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and rainfall has fallen by approximately 30%.  The most pronounced warming has occurred in the late summer and early fall.  That finding means that tinder-dry conditions coincide with the strong “Diablo” and “Santa Ana” winds that are typical in California at this time of year.     

In recent years, these conditions have fed large and fast-moving wildfires across California.  The state’s two largest wildfires, two most destructive wildfires, and the most deadly wildfire all occurred during 2017 and 2018, resulting in more than 150 deaths and $50 billion in damage.

Because summertime has typically been peak fire season, the recent spate of autumn fires is putting a strain on firefighting resources and funding.  The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could further strain emergency resources.  Since fire-prone regions have historically shared  wildfire-fighting resources throughout the year, the consequences of California’s extended wildfire season could have a global impact.  (For example, California’s recent autumn wildfires have coincided with the beginning of wildfires in Australia). 

The researchers highlight some opportunities to manage the intensifying wildfire risk in California, including limiting the trajectory of global warming in keeping with the targets identified in the United Nations’ Paris agreement.

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Researchers forecast longer, more extreme wildfire seasons

Photo, posted September 12, 2019, courtesy of the California National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Stranded Coal Assets In Japan

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Japan is facing a looming financial problem as a result of heavy investments in coal technology that may quickly become stranded assets as renewable energy sources become increasingly inexpensive.

Japan is gradually adding more ambitious policies with regard to climate change including goals to reduce emissions and to have renewables become the main source of power over the next three decades.  But despite these policy efforts, Japan is still investing heavily in coal power.  Japan currently has 21 new coal projects with over 11 GW of under-construction, permitted or pre-permitted coal capacity.  But these tens of billions of dollars in assets would have to be closed prematurely in order to remain consistent with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

According to a new report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a financial think tank, and the University of Tokyo, offshore wind power will be cheaper than coal in Japan by 2022, new solar cheaper by 2023, and onshore wind less expensive by 2025.  The price of offshore wind is already comparable to existing coal power in Japan.  Japan had a total of 55.5 GW of solar capacity last year and has the potential to reach 150 GW by 2030.

The report notes that 42% of the global coal fleet likely became unprofitable last year and this could rise to 72% by 2040.  The authors contend that building coal power today equals high-cost power and financial liabilities tomorrow.  The planned and operating coal capacity in Japan is partially protected by regulations that give coal generators an unfair advantage in the marketplace.  Ultimately, the stranded coal assets are likely to be passed down to consumers through higher power prices.

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Land of the Rising Sun and Offshore Wind

Photo, posted April 25, 2019, courtesy of Jen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Amazon And Climate Change

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Online shopping giant Amazon has unveiled a Climate Pledge, committing to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement ten years ahead of schedule, and to be carbon neutral by 2040. This is the company’s most ambitious push yet to reduce its carbon footprint, which currently rivals that of a small country.  In fact, Amazon is responsible for 48.9 million tons of carbon dioxide last year, which is about 85% of what Switzerland typically emits in a year. 

Amazon, which ships more than 10 billion items a year on fossil fuel-intensive planes and trucks, has ordered a fleet of 100,000 electric vans that will start delivering packages to doorsteps in 2021.  The vans will be made by Rivian, a Michigan-based company that Amazon invested in earlier this year. 

Amazon plans to get 100% of its energy from solar and other renewable sources by 2030.  Currently, it gets about 40% of its energy from renewables. 

Amazon is also investing $100 million in nature-based climate solutions and reforestation projects around the world in order to remove carbon from the atmosphere. 

While announcing these initiatives recently at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said the company needs to be a leader on the climate change issue:

We want to say look, if a company of Amazon’s complexity, scale, scope, physical infrastructure, delivering 10 billion items can do this, so can you.

After revealing Amazon’s Climate Pledge, Bezos said he would talk with CEOs of other large companies to try to get them to also sign it.  You can find a link to Amazon’s progress on its commitments by visiting this website.

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‘Middle of the herd’ no more: Amazon tackles climate change

Amazon: Committed to a sustainable future (track progress here)

Photo courtesy of Amazon.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another CO2 Milestone

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The global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was measured at 400 parts per million for the first time in recorded history in May of 2013.  It was a brief event at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii at the time.  Within the next couple of years, however, readings of at least 400 ppm became standard.

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China As Climate Leader

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China and the United States today produce nearly half of the world’s carbon emissions, so the fight against global climate change depends greatly upon what actions the two countries take.   China has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past twenty years from a largely rural society to one that is far more urbanized and far more energy intensive.  In 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol on climate was negotiated, China was only responsible for 14% of global CO2 emissions.  It then surpassed the US on that front in less than 10 years and now accounts for nearly 30% of the world’s emissions.

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