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Who wins: Wind or solar?

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A new study by the University of Exeter in the UK suggests that the world may have crossed a tipping point that will inevitably make solar power our main source of energy.  This data-driven model of technology seems to fly in the face of the current situation in which wind power contributes considerably more generation than solar power – by a factor of 3 in the U.S. and nearly double worldwide.

Wind and solar power both have advantages and disadvantages.  Solar power is quiet, requires little maintenance, and presents little danger to wildlife.  It is also practical for individual homes.  Residential wind power is not really a viable option for most people in most places.  But on the other hand, wind energy can produce more power than solar, can work both day and night, and can be located offshore far away from people.  On land, both wind and solar power take up lots of space and compete with other land use needs as well as countering people’s aesthetic preferences.

Both technologies continue to get cheaper over time, although solar has especially seen significant cost reductions.  The cost of solar power, which is already the cheapest form of electricity production, is estimated to fall to as low as $20 per megawatt hour over time from the current level of $40 per megawatt hour.

Wind and solar energy are on track to account for more than a third of the world’s electricity by 2030, according to the Rocky Mountain Institute.  Despite the predictions of various studies and the ambitions of specific technologies, it seems likely that wind and solar power will both play an expanding role in our energy systems for a long time to come.

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World may have crossed solar power ‘tipping point’

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deadly Heatwaves On The Rise | Earth Wise

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The European heatwave in the summer of 2003 resulted in at least 30,000 deaths with more than 14,000 in France alone. At the time, such a heatwave was considered to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. But the warming climate is dramatically changing the odds for deadly heatwaves.

A new study by the ETH Institute in Zurich has found that the risk of fatal heatwaves has risen sharply over the past 20 years, and in the future, such extreme weather will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase, particularly in Europe.  According to a paper published in Nature Medicine, more than 61,000 deaths in Europe could be blamed on the heat during the summer of 2022, which was the hottest summer on record for the continent.  When the readings from this summer are analyzed, that record is likely to be surpassed.

Heatwaves lead to excess deaths due to dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular collapse.  They are particularly deadly for the elderly, the sick, and the poor.  The ETH researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 748 cities and communities in 47 countries.   They determined the relationship between increased temperature and excess mortality.  Their models look at how excess mortality would develop with an average global temperature increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius (the value in 2000), 1.2 degrees (the value in 2020), and both 1.5 degrees (the limit sought by the Paris Agreement) and 2 degrees.

Even with the current global temperature, heatwaves that were a once-in-a-century event are now expected to occur every 10 years.  With 2 degrees of warming, such heatwaves could happen every 2 to 5 years.

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Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more deadly

Photo, posted July 22, 2009, courtesy of Matt McGee via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Top Fish Predators And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Climate change is taking its toll on forests, farms, freshwater sources, and the economy, but ocean ecosystems remain the epicenter of global warming.  In fact, oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions since the 1970s.

As a result, many marine fish species are responding to ocean warming by relocating towards the poles.  According to new research recently published in the journal Science Advances, climate change is causing widespread habitat loss for some of the ocean’s top fish predators, driving these species northward.

The research team studied 12 species of highly migratory fish predators, including sharks, tuna, and billfish, such as marlin and swordfish, inhabiting the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.  These two regions are undergoing rapid changes in sea surface temperatures, and are among the fastest warming ocean regions on earth.

The research, which was led by researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, with collaboration from San Diego State University, NOAA, and several other U.S. institutions, found that most species will encounter widespread habitat losses by 2100.  Some species could lose upwards of 70% of suitable habitat by that year.  Areas offshore of the Southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic coasts were identified as likely hotspots of multi-species habitat loss. 

According to the researchers, strategies for managing fish have historically been static. But marine systems need to be treated as dynamic and changing.  This study helps provide the scientific data needed for marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.

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Top fish predators could suffer wide loss of suitable habitat by 2100 due to climate change

Photo, posted March 18, 2015, courtesy of Kenneth Hagemeyer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Beaver Believers | Earth Wise

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Beavers are ecosystem engineers based on their ability to construct dams and create ponds.  By doing so, they create wetland habitat for other species.  They create biodiversity by allowing plant species to emerge in new places as they clear out existing trees and other plants.  Beavers improve water quality and their dams store water during droughts.  Their handiwork minimizes flood risk and mitigates flooding impacts.

Before beavers were widely trapped, there were beaver dams just about everywhere in the American west.  Now beaver rewilding is trying to restore many western ecosystems. In places like Idaho, ranchers have gone from seeing beavers as a nuisance to actually recruiting them onto their land.  One cattle rancher began stream restoration on his land with beaver rewilding in 2014.  By 2022, he was a firm “beaver believer”.  There are now over 200 beaver dams along Birch Creek near Preston, Idaho, and the stream now flows 40 days longer into the year.

NASA has established a team to investigate the extent to which beavers can have an outsized and positive impact on local ecosystems.  The team is using NASA’s Earth Observation satellites to observe the effects beavers are having.  Satellites can collect data from large areas and can pass over the same areas regularly and across seasons.  The goal is to support people on the ground who are implementing beaver rewilding efforts to increase water availability and to increase habits for fish and other species.  NASA’s project will run through 2025 and it plans to expand it to other states with similar terrain and water management strategies.

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Researchers Become “Beaver Believers” After Measuring the Impacts of Rewilding

Photo, posted February 23, 2021, courtesy of Deborah Freeman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Upper Atmosphere Is Cooling | Earth Wise

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The part of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface has been warming since the Industrial Revolution.  This warming is associated with increasing amounts of carbon dioxide as well as other human-made chemicals that have been changing the makeup of the atmosphere. Climate change is generally thought about in terms of the lowest regions of the atmosphere – known as the troposphere – where our weather happens.

But climate models also predict that another result of the changes to the makeup of the atmosphere is that most of the atmosphere up higher will get dramatically colder.  The same gases that are warming the bottom few miles of air are cooling the much greater expanses above that extend to the edge of space.

Recent satellite data has confirmed the accuracy of these models and provide further confirmation of the human fingerprint of climate change. The natural variability of weather that complicates climate models does not play a role in the upper atmosphere.

In the higher levels of the atmosphere, the effects of increasing levels of carbon dioxide are quite different.  In the thinner air up there, the heat trapped and re-emitted by CO2 does not bump into other molecules creating warming.  Instead, it escapes to space.  Combined with the trapping of heat at lower levels, the result is a rapid cooling of the upper atmosphere.

There are potential problems associated with the cooling upper atmosphere including that it is contracting.  The result is that the crowd of manmade objects in low orbit remains there longer, and there is a potential increased degradation of the ozone layer. 

The changes we are making to the atmosphere are having significant effects from the surface of the earth to the edge of space.

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The Upper Atmosphere Is Cooling, Prompting New Climate Concerns

Photo, posted August 18, 2021, courtesy of Arek Socha via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And Species Tipping Points | Earth Wise

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In climate science, tipping points are critical thresholds that, once crossed, lead to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system. For example, surpassing a 1.5 degree C rise in global warming has long been considered a tipping point for the planet. 

According to a new study led by researchers from University College London, climate change will abruptly push species over tipping points as their geographic ranges reach unforeseen temperatures. 

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, the research team analyzed data from more than 35,000 species of animals and seagrasses from every continent and ocean basin, alongside climate projections up to 2100.  The researchers found a consistent trend:  for many animals, the thermal exposure threshold will be crossed for much of their geographic range within the same decade. 

The thermal exposure threshold is defined as the first five consecutive years where temperatures consistently exceed the most extreme monthly temperature experienced by a species across its geographic range over recent history. 

The researchers also found that the extent of global warming will make a big difference for animals.  If the planet warms by just 1.5°C, 15% of species studied will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30% of their current  geographic range in a single decade.  But this figure will double to 30% of species at 2.5°C of warming.

Since their data provides an early warning system, the researchers hope that their findings will help species conservation efforts. 

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Climate change to push species over abrupt tipping points

Photo, posted May 27, 2017, courtesy of Sarah Lemarié via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Chatbots Are Thirsty | Earth Wise

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We hear a lot about artificial intelligence these days.  ChatGPT has found its way into education, technology, and many other aspects of life.  It and its brethren are a source of fascination, enthusiasm, and even fear.  Many of us have given queries to the bot to see what kind of results we can obtain.  But a recent study has found out something about AI systems that we probably didn’t know – they use up lots of fresh water.

According to researchers at the University of California, Riverside, running a few dozen queries on ChatGPT uses up about half a quart of fresh water from already overtaxed reservoirs.

Running artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT relies on cloud computations done in racks of servers in warehouse-sized data processing centers.  Google’s data centers in the U.S. alone consumed nearly 3.5 billion gallons of fresh water in 2021 in order to keep their servers cool.

Data processing centers consume water in two ways.  They often draw much of their electricity from power plants that use large cooling towers that convert water into steam emitted into the atmosphere.  In addition, the servers themselves need to be cooled to keep running and are typically connected to cooling towers as well.

It isn’t going to be easy for AI systems to reduce their water use.  The study’s authors noted that people make use of AI at all hours of the day and night.  But a significant amount of AI activity is actually the training of the systems.  That could be scheduled for the cooler hours, when less water is lost to evaporation.

In an era of scarce fresh water and droughts, it is important to make AI less thirsty.

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AI programs consume large volumes of scarce water

Photo, posted May 22, 2023, courtesy of Jernej Furman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Shrinking Birds | Earth Wise

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A new study by researchers at Yale University looks at the way bird morphology is changing in response to the warming climate.  As temperatures rise, birds’ bodies are growing smaller, but their wings are growing longer.

In the study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the scientists analyzed two independently collected datasets containing 40 years of morphology changes in 129 bird species comprising 52 migratory species in North America and 77 South American species.

In both datasets, similar changes were observed over the 40-year period.  The overall trend makes sense given that being smaller and having longer wings both would help birds to stay cool in warmer weather.  What was less obvious was that the changes to the birds were much greater among the smallest bird species.

One possible explanation is that smaller species tend to reproduce on a shorter time scale and therefore evolve more quickly.  However, the study found no link between generation length and the changes in body size.

Another possible explanation is that smaller species tend to have larger populations, which means there is a greater chance of having individuals with desirable new traits that can get passed on.  But the scientists found no link between population size and shifts in body size either.

At this point, it is unclear why smaller birds are shrinking more.  More research is needed to figure out why larger birds are slower to adapt to climate change.  In general, larger species of animals have an increased risk of extinction.  This new research suggests that larger body size exacerbates extinction risk by limiting the ability for birds to adapt to the changes we are making to the climate.

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Birds Are Shrinking as the Climate Warms — and Small Birds Are Shrinking Faster

Photo, posted October 30, 2018, courtesy of N. Lewis / National Park Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record Polar Ice Melting | Earth Wise

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Sea levels are rising and ocean warming is responsible for the bulk of that rise.  As water heats up, it expands, which drives up sea levels.  But on top of that, global warming is melting the polar ice sheets, and that is leading to about a quarter of the world’s sea level rise. So far, polar melting has fueled about an inch of sea level rise, two-thirds from Greenland and one third from Antarctica.   According to scientists, by the end of this century, melting polar ice caps could raise sea levels between 6 and 10 inches.

The seven worst years for polar ice sheet melting have occurred during the past decade.  The worst year on record was 2019.  The loss in 2019 was driven by an Arctic summer heatwave, which resulted in record melting from Greenland, amounting to nearly 500 billion tons melted that year.  Antarctica lost 180 billion tons of ice that year, mostly due to melting glaciers and record melting from the Antarctic Peninsula.

Ice losses from Greenland and Antarctica can now be reliably measured by satellites in space.  A team of researchers led by Northumbria University in the UK has combined 50 satellite surveys taken between 1992 and 2020.

They have found that the Earth’s polar ice sheets have lost over 8,000 billion tons of ice over that time period.  That much ice corresponds to an ice cube roughly 12 miles high.

The satellite technology is now at the stage where the ice sheet status can be continuously updated.  Such monitoring is critical to predict the future behavior of the ice sheets and provide risk warnings of the dangers that coastal communities around the world will face.

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Polar ice sheet melting records have toppled during the past decade

Photo, posted December 19, 2017, courtesy of Jasmine Nears via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

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Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average.  In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events.  The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea.   Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature.  On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm.  Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict.  The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes.   There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

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Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Tracking Global Forest Changes | Earth Wise

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India is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world.  An estimated 47,000 plant species and 89,000 animal species can be found in India, with more than 10% of each thought to be on the list of threatened species.

India is also one of the 10 most forest-rich countries in the world.  Trees cover approximately 25% of the nation.  But this is still a significant decline from years past.  In fact, between the 1890s and 1990s, a combination of rapid development and resource overexploitation caused India to lose nearly 80% of its native forest area.  Today, as India’s forests continue to disappear, researchers are trying to help preserve what forest remains. 

Using satellite-monitoring data, researchers from The Ohio State University have developed a deep learning algorithm that could provide real-time land use and land cover maps for parts of India. 

The land use monitoring system was trained using satellite data from Norway’s International Climate and Forests Initiative.  By combining this data with a global land cover map produced by Tsinghua University in China, the researcher team’s deep learning model was able to acquire a more detailed type of base map of the area.  Using their model, the researchers were able to process 10 monthly maps.  Their research was recently  presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.   

Using these maps, the researchers were able to detect seasonal shifts across india.  These include changes to barren land, how crop land was affected by monsoons, and the distribution of forests in mountainous regions. 

Understanding the impact of these seasonal changes will help scientists better predict the effects of climate change on forests.

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Using deep learning to monitor India’s disappearing forest cover

Photo, posted January 20, 2013, courtesy of Frontier Official via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Oxygen Loss In Lakes | Earth Wise

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Researchers from Cornell University and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that the continual warming in the world over the past 25 years has been reducing the amount of oxygen in many lakes.

Data from more than 400 lakes – mostly in the United States – shows that lakes with dissolved oxygen losses strongly outnumber those with gains.  Overall, the researchers found that the amount of low oxygen water is increasing by 0.9% to 1.7% per decade on average  and the volume of lake water lacking oxygen has increased by more than 50% from 25 years ago.

In the summer, lake surfaces may be about 70 degrees while the lake bottom may be about 40 degrees.  The colder water is denser than the warmer water which causes resistance to the layers mixing.  It is akin to having oil and vinegar in a cruet.  This is known as stratification.   The result is that oxygen from the atmosphere is prevented from replenishing dissolved oxygen in deep waters.  This is a normal seasonal phenomenon.

However, with winter ending sooner than it used to, seasonal stratification is starting earlier and ending later. As warming continues, it is likely that there will be an increasing number of oxygen-depleted lakes in the future.

Oxygen deprivation in water can lead to hypoxia (low oxygen) and even anoxia (no oxygen), which have negative consequences for fish and other species.  Reducing oxygen in lake water can lead to buildup of methane.   Nutrients from agricultural runoff, released from unsettled lake sediment, increase the likelihood of harmful algal blooms.

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Warming climate prompts harmful oxygen loss in lakes

Photo, posted June 23, 2010, courtesy of Alexander Acker via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Assessing The Planet’s Most Unique Birds | Earth Wise

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Birds come in a huge variety of shapes, sizes and plumages.  The physical attributes of birds are adaptations that have taken countless millennia to develop, and physical attributes are closely related to the roles birds play in their environment.   

According to a new study led by researchers from the University College London in the U.K., bird species with extreme or uncommon combinations of traits have the highest risk of extinction.  Losing these bird species and the unique roles they play in the environment, including seed dispersal, pollination and predation, could have severe consequences on the health of ecosystems.

In the study, which was recently published in the British Ecological Society journal Functional Ecology, the researchers analyzed the extinction risk and physical attributes of 99% of all living bird species.  The research team used a dataset of measurements collected from living birds and museum specimens.  The measurements included things like beak size and shape, and the length of wings, tails and legs.  The researchers combined this data with extinction risk, and then ran simulations to see what would happen if the most threatened birds were to go extinct.

Some of the bird species that are both most unique and most threatened include the Christmas Frigatebird and the Bristle-thighed Curlew.  Kiwis were excluded from the study because the researchers viewed them as extreme morphological outliers.

While most unique birds were also classified as threatened on the Red List, the research was unable to show what links uniqueness in birds to extinction risk

The research team warns that if more isn’t done to protect these threatened species and avoid extinctions, the functioning of ecosystems will be dramatically disrupted.

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Planet’s most unique birds at higher risk of extinction

Photo, posted June 25, 2012, courtesy of Kristine Sowl / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Mauna Loa Eruption And Climate Tracking | Earth Wise

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Mauna Loa, the largest active volcano in the world, erupted for the first time in nearly 40 years in late November.  A 124-foot aluminum tower at the top of the volcano has been the site of carbon dioxide measurements for over 60 years but the eruption cut off power to the site, stopping the monitoring.

Carbon dioxide measurements on Mauna Loa began in 1958.  The project was started by geochemist Charles Keeling and eventually taken over by his son Ralph Keeling upon his father’s death in 2005.  It is the longest continuous record of the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the world.

Mauna Loa is an ideal location for carbon dioxide monitoring because it is a remote location away from both carbon dioxide sources like dense population centers and roads, and carbon sinks like areas of heavy vegetation.

There are hundreds of carbon dioxide monitoring stations around the world, including more than 70 operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, so the interruption will not stop global recordkeeping.  But Mauna Loa holds significant symbolism as the first and most frequently sited source of carbon dioxide data.

There have been other interruptions in the measurements.  Federal budget cuts in 1964 paused them for about 3 months.  A 1984 eruption also cut off power to the facility and shut it down for about a month.

When the facility first started operating, the average carbon dioxide concentration was measured at 313 parts per million.   Most recently, levels have peaked at around 421 parts per million, the greatest concentration in at least 4 million years. 

Power will be restored to the Mauna Loa facility and its measurements will resume.

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Mauna Loa Eruption Threatens a Famous Climate Record

Photo, posted November 29, 2022, courtesy of L. Gallant / USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Decarbonizing Could Save Trillions | Earth Wise

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Scientists have long been calling for a transition to clean energy to prevent catastrophic impacts of climate change.  For much of that time, many people and, specifically, many of those in power, were skeptical of the need to do something about the warming climate.  But even as the facts about the changing climate became increasingly undeniable, there continued to be fears that the transition to clean energy sources would be unacceptably expensive and harmful to the economy.

A recent study published by Oxford University shows that the opposite is true:  a concerted effort to convert to green energy technologies such as solar, wind, and batteries, will save the world enormous amounts of money.

The Oxford study shows that a transition to nearly 100% clean energy by 2050 results in a lower-cost energy system that provides energy access to more people around the world.  The energy transition is expected to save the world at least $12 trillion compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.

The cost of renewable energy sources has been going down for decades and they are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations.  It is expected that they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications over time.  Accelerating the transition will allow renewables to become cheaper faster.

The study made use of probabilistic models to estimate the costs of various possible future energy systems based on past data.  Even the most pessimistic models showed that scaling up green technologies is likely to drive their costs down so far that they will generate net cost savings and that the faster the transition goes, the more will be saved.  The result will be a cleaner, cheaper, more energy secure future.

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Decarbonising the energy system by 2050 could save trillions

Photo, posted July 12, 2010, courtesy of Tom Shockey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Coping With Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Extreme weather events including prolonged drought and heavy rainfall are becoming more common and more severe as global temperatures rise.  As the climate continues to change in the coming decades, how will animals respond? 

Researchers from the University of Southern Denmark have examined how different mammals react to climate change. They analyzed data on population fluctuations from 157 mammal species around the world.  They compared these fluctuations with weather and climate data from the same time period.  The research team had 10 or more years of data for each species studied. 

The researchers found that mammals that live for a long time and/or produce less offspring –  like llamas, elephants, bears, and bison – are more climate resilient than small mammals with short lives — like mice, possums, lemmings, and rare marsupials. 

For example, large, long-lived mammals can invest their energy into one offspring, or simply wait for better times if conditions become challenging.  On the other hand, small, short-lived mammals like rodents have more extreme population changes in the short term. In the event of a prolonged drought, large portions of their food base may rapidly disappear, and they are left to starve because they have limited fat reserves.

However, the research team notes that the ability of a species to withstand climate change must not be the only factor when assessing a species’ vulnerability.  In fact, in many cases, habitat destruction, poaching, pollution, and invasive species pose a larger threat to animal species than climate change. 

While the study only examined 157 species, the findings enable researchers to also predict how animals they know less about will react to climate change.

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Which animals can best withstand climate change?

Photo, posted July 8, 2018, courtesy of Ray via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Trees Are Dying | Earth Wise

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California relies on extensive forests to help reduce the amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere.  But extensive drought and increasingly frequent wildfires have been reducing the state’s tree population for the past three decades.

A comprehensive study by a team of scientists from the University of California Irvine used satellite data to study vegetation changes between 1985 and 2021.  Across the entire state, tree cover area has declined 6.7% over that time period.  The results varied from region to region across the state.

Southern California exhibited the sharpest decline, where 14% of the tree population in local mountain ranges vanished, potentially permanently.  In the Sierra Nevada mountains, tree populations were relatively stable until about 2010.  After that, a severe drought followed by historically large wildfires resulted in a 8.8% die-off of trees.  The northern parts of the state, with higher rainfall and cooler temperatures, fared better, being able to more easily recover from wildfires.

The study goes beyond measuring the tree population of the state and its effects on carbon storage.  The data is also important for understanding how changes in forest cover affects water resources and fire behavior in the state.

The decline of trees in California is affecting the carbon storage abilities of the state.  The satellite survey showed that as the tree populations have dropped, the state’s coverage of shrubs and grasses has risen, possibly indicating that permanent ecosystem shifts are occurring.  The forces contributing to the decline of trees in California are not going away any time soon.  As a result, the threat to California’s ability to mitigate the effects of climate change continues to grow.

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UCI study: California’s trees are dying, and might not be coming back

Photo, posted March 24, 2016, courtesy of David Fulmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Marine Predation And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Climate change is taking a toll on forests, farms, freshwater resources, and economies all around the world.  But ocean ecosystems remain the center of global warming.

Despite their vast ability to absorb heat and carbon dioxide, oceans are warming.  In fact, according to scientists, the oceans have absorbed 90% of all the warming that has occurred during the past 50 years. 

The ocean’s surface layer, which is home to most marine life, takes most of this heat.  As a result, the top 2,300 feet of global ocean water has warmed approximately 1.5°F since 1901.

Well it turns out that a hotter ocean is also a hungrier ocean.  According to a new study recently published in the journal Science, researchers discovered that predator impacts in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans peak at higher temperatures.  The effects of more intense marine predation could disrupt ecosystem balances that have existed for millennia. 

An international research team led by the Smithsonian Institution and Temple University analyzed predator and prey data collected from 36 sites, running along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts from Alaska in the north to Tierra de Fuego at the tip of South America.  The research team found that, in warmer waters, predators’ more voracious appetites left outsized marks on the prey community.  Total prey biomass plunged in warmer waters when prey were left unprotected.  However, in the coldest zones, leaving prey exposed or protected made nearly no difference at all.  

As the oceans continue to warm, more intense predation will create winners and losers and could jeopardize the overall health of marine ecosystems.  

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As the ocean heats up hungrier predators take control

Photo, posted July 14, 2017, courtesy of Jonathan Chen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Fires Are Larger And More Frequent | Earth Wise

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According to a new study by the University of Colorado Boulder, wildfires have gotten much larger and much more frequent across the United States since the year 2000.  The rise in wildfires in recent years has been attributed to the changing climate and the new research shows that large fires have become more common and have been spreading into new areas that previously did not burn.

The researchers analyzed data from over 28,000 fires that occurred between 1984 and 2018 using satellite imagery along with detailed state and federal fire history records.

The results are that there were more fires across all regions of the contiguous U.S. from 2005 to 2018 compared to the previous 20 years.  In the West and East, fire frequency doubled, and in the Great Plains, fire frequency quadrupled.  The amount of land burned each year at least tripled in those regions.

The team discovered that the size of fire-prone areas increased in all regions of the contiguous U.S. in the 2000s, meaning that the distance between individual fires has been getting smaller than it was in previous decades and the fires have been spreading into areas that did not burn in the past.

This comprehensive study confirms what has been assumed by the media, public, and firefighting officials.  The results also align with increasing risk trends such as the growing development of natural hazard zones. Projected changes in climate, fuel, and ignitions suggest that there will be more and larger fires in the future.  More large fires plus intensifying development mean that the worst fire disasters are still to come.

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U.S. Fires Four Times Larger, Three Times More Frequent Since 2000

Photo, posted May 3, 2013, courtesy of Daria Devyatkina via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Computing With Honey | Earth Wise           

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Researchers are always working to develop faster and more powerful computers.  Some of them believe that the future of computing lies with neuromorphic computers, which are systems designed to mimic the neurons and synapses found in the human brain.

The human brain has more than 100 billion neurons with more than 1 quadrillion synapses or connections among them.  These numbers far exceed anything people have built.  There have been some neuromorphic computer chips made that have the equivalent of more than 100 million neurons per chip, but this is still far less than the number in the brain.  Despite all its complexity, the brain uses vastly less power than a powerful computer.  Some supercomputers use tens of millions of watts to operate; the brain uses around 10 to 20 watts.

Many researchers are searching for biodegradable and renewable ways to make neuromorphic computing components.  Researchers at Washington State University have demonstrated a way to make them using, of all things, honey.  The honey is used to form a memristor, which is a component similar to a transistor that can both process and store data in memory.  The device uses honey processed into a solid form and sandwiched between two metal electrodes.  The organic device is very stable and reliable over a long time.

So far, these devices are on a micro scale – about the size of a human hair.  The researchers want to develop them on a nanoscale, which is about 1/1000 the width of a human hair, and then bundle many millions or even billions together to make a neuromorphic computing system.  Such a honey-based system would be renewable and biodegradable – which, pardon the pun, would be really sweet.

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Honey holds potential for making brain-like computer chips

Photo, posted January 28, 2008, courtesy of Dino Giordano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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