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Natural Climate Solutions Are Not Enough

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A new policy perspective published in Science by researchers at seven prestigious institutions looked at the role of natural science solutions in stabilizing the Earth’s climate for people and ecosystems.   While they asserted that it is imperative to ramp up natural climate solutions, they also concluded that natural solutions alone will not be sufficient.

Natural science solutions include such things as enhancing carbon sinks from forests, agriculture and other lands.  Doing these things are very beneficial in their own right as they lead to improved forests, croplands, grazing lands, and wetlands.

However, these things will not be enough to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and must be combined with rapid efforts to decrease emissions from the energy and industrial sectors.  Among their various findings, the researchers warn that a ten-year delay in emissions reductions from these sectors could completely negate any potential benefits of natural climate solutions.

As has become increasingly clear, there is not an either-or situation with regard to the actions that need to be taken with respect to climate change.

Maximizing natural climate solutions and reducing emissions from the energy and industrial sectors will provide broad benefits beyond climate change mitigation.  Doing these things will improve forests and habitats, reduce the risk of wildfires, and decrease air and water pollution thereby improving human health and well-being.

Of course, to reduce cumulative emissions and put a cap on the warming of the planet, there will need to be policy mechanisms and incentives in place that support both natural climate solutions and increasing mitigation efforts across the energy and industrial sectors.

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Natural Climate Solutions Are Not Enough

Photo, posted February 11, 2012, courtesy of Joao Andre O. Dias via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Defusing The Methane Time Bomb

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Permafrost is defined as soil that remains frozen for two or more consecutive years.  It is generally composed of rock, soil, sediments, and varying amounts of ice that binds it all together.  The permafrost of the Arctic represents one of the largest reservoirs of organic carbon in the world.  It covers vast regions of Siberia, northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland.

When permafrost thaws, microbes in the previously-frozen soil go to work digesting organic materials and release carbon dioxide and methane, both of which are greenhouse gases.  Methane is 25 times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, so it represents the greater threat.  The massive amounts of methane that could be released by thawing permafrost have been described as a ticking time bomb threatening the world’s climate.  Unfortunately, the permafrost in the Arctic is already starting to thaw as a result of climate change.

A new study by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis looked into the prospects for neutralizing the threat posed by the release of methane from thawing permafrost.  They analyzed the relative contributions of potential methane emissions from the permafrost and existing ones from human activities.  Human-caused methane emissions from fossil fuel activities, waste dumps, and livestock constitute a major source of the gas.  

Their conclusion is that if we can greatly reduce human-generated methane release, the effects of uncontrolled Arctic methane emissions could be mitigated.   It is unclear whether we can do much to stave off the Arctic methane release at this point, but the release of methane from human activities is something we can do something about.  But the clock is ticking.

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Diffusing the methane bomb: We can still make a difference

Photo, posted August 14, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Changing Face of Electricity

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The New York Times recently published an article on how electricity is made in the United States on a state-by-state basis and how it has been changing over the past two decades.  Two conclusions to draw are that the mix of energy sources is wildly different from one state to another and that the mix has been changing rather dramatically in many places.

Overall, the past two decades have seen the dramatic rise in the use of natural gas and a dramatic drop in the use of coal.  Coal plants used to account for over half of the electricity produced in the U.S. at the turn of the 21st century.  Now natural gas has passed coal as the largest energy source at roughly 1/3 of the total generated.

Switching from coal to natural gas is a good thing since modern gas power plants emit only about half the carbon dioxide as modern coal plants.  But industry spin about “clean gas” is just spin.  Gas is not really clean; it is just cleaner than coal.  So, having the electric grid powered by gas is not really going to solve our emissions problems.

That being said, there are still states that make nearly all their electricity with coal.  Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, and West Virginia are on that list.  Meanwhile, Delaware, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nevada, and Rhode Island are powered mostly by gas. Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Vermont rely heavily on hydropower.

Newer renewables like solar and wind are starting to make major contributions in many states.  Wind contributes only 6% nationwide but is much bigger in places like Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and Texas. 

The face of electricity continues to change.

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How Does Your State Make Electricity?

Photo, posted March 5, 2010, courtesy of Tennessee Valley Authority via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

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Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow.  The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii.  Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production.  The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems.  In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 .  The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year.  The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record.  The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm.  With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

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Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019

Photo, posted March 18, 2006, courtesy of Darin Marshall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars In Norway

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Norway has long been a world leader in sales of electric vehicles.  The country only has 5.3 million people, so the absolute numbers cannot compete with those of large countries.  Despite that, it wasn’t until the first quarter of last year that Germany became the leader in number of electric cars sold in Europe and Germany has 15 times the population of Norway.

In percentage terms, almost one-third of all new cars sold in Norway last year ran on batteries.  The country offers generous subsidies for buyers who opt to go electric.  The government has set a goal of having all new cars be emission-free by 2025.  Last year, three of the top five most popular new car models were electric:  the Nissan Leaf, the BMW i3, and the Tesla Model X.

Tesla’s Model 3, which has shattered all records for electric car sales in the United States, has yet to go on sale in Norway.  When the car becomes available there in the next few months, it is expected to generate very high sales figures.

The 31% market share for electric cars in Norway far exceeds that of most other countries.  In the United States, for example, plug-in cars account for only about 2% of new car sales.  Only Hong Kong and Iceland are also currently above 5% electric.

Norway’s role in all of this is rather convoluted.  The country has copious hydroelectric power resources that provide virtually all of its electricity.  Thus, electric cars in Norway are truly clean, green vehicles.  On the other hand, Norway is the 15th largest producer of oil in the world and gets about 17% of its GDP from oil exports.  Tackling climate change must ultimately deal with the emissions Norway continues to export.

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Photo, posted October 3, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Droughts And Hydropower

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Recent droughts in several western states have led to well-publicized problems including wildfires, loss of trees, and damage to crops.  A lesser-known impact of drought conditions has been increases in emissions of carbon dioxide and harmful air pollutants from power generation.

When hydropower runs low in a drought, western states tend to ramp up power generation – and therefore emissions – from fossil fuels.   According to a new study from Stanford University, droughts caused about 10 percent of the average annual carbon dioxide emissions from power generation in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington between 2001 and 2015.

Water is used in electricity generation both directly for hydroelectric power and indirectly for cooling in thermoelectric power plants.  When water for hydropower comes up short because of drought conditions, natural gas or coal-fired power plants are brought online to pick up the slack.

These drought-induced shifts in energy sources led to an estimated 100 million tons of carbon dioxide across 11 western states between 2001 and 2015.  That is the equivalent of adding 1.4 million vehicles to the region’s roadways.  California, whose legislature has mandated that the state be carbon-free by 2045, contributed about half of this total.  Washington, which is considering a similar mandate, contributed nearly a quarter of the total.

Western states in recent years have suffered intense droughts that scientists expect to become more common as global warming continues to intensify.   The new study indicates that in regions where clean, reliable hydropower has been an important part of the energy mix, it will be increasingly necessary to provide clean backup energy sources in order to meet emission reduction targets.

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Droughts boost emissions as hydropower dries up

Photo, posted March 7, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Can Germany Meet Its Energy Goals?

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Germany has been a global leader in efforts to decarbonize its massive economy.  A national initiative known as Energiewende – or clean energy transition – has been in place since 2010 and relies heavily on renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and energy demand management.

The program has involved some of the most aggressive deployment of renewable energy sources in the world.  Germany was the first country to install 1 GW of solar energy and still has the 5th largest amount of solar power in the world despite actually being a country with fairly limited sunshine.  Germany has nearly 30,000 wind turbines, most of which are onshore, unlike many other countries in northern Europe.  Over the past five years, government support and cost to consumers for the shift to clean energy have totaled over $180 billion.

However, despite these efforts, Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions have not declined as rapidly as expected, even though nearly 40% of the country’s electricity now comes from renewable sources.

This lack of expected success comes as a shock to the environmentally conscious German population, nearly 90% of which supports the program.

There are two major problems Germany faces.  One is that Germany is Europe’s largest producer of coal, which still generates more than a third of the country’s power.  The other is that Germany’s large auto industry is still married to gas- and diesel-fueled cars and emissions from the country’s cars are a big problem.

The Energiewende program was driven by political will and investment certainty.  It is unclear whether Germany can muster these forces again.  The Merkel government has dragged its feet on environmental issues in recent years.  It remains to be seen what effect shifting political power in Germany will have.

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Carbon Crossroads: Can Germany Revive Its Stalled Energy Transition?

Photo, posted August 15, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Food Production And Climate Change

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According to a University of Oxford study recently published in the journal Science, food production is a major driver of climate change as it’s responsible for 26% of all greenhouse gas emissions.  But the research team found that the environmental impact of different foods varied greatly. 

Meat and other animal products are responsible for 58% of all food-related greenhouse gas emissions, despite only providing approximately one-fifth of the calories we consume.  The researchers found that beef and lamb in particular have the most damaging effect on the planet, responsible for half of all greenhouse gas emissions from animal agriculture. 

These findings echo recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change about how individuals can reduce their carbon footprint through diet.  The IPCC suggests we consume less meat and dairy products, consume more locally-sourced seasonal foods, and throw less food in the trash.  

Avoiding meat and dairy products can reduce an individual’s carbon footprint from food by two-thirds.  The effects of doing so include everything from conserving water and preserving biodiversity to reducing pollution and deforestation. 

Interestingly, the same food can have major differences in terms of environmental impacts.  For example, beef raised on deforested land is responsible for 12 times as many greenhouse gas emissions as that raised on natural pastures.  But even the most climate-friendly meat options are still responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than the highest-impact vegetable proteins, like beans and nuts. 

Big differences can also be made by avoiding chocolate and coffee produced from deforested lands.  

To learn more about the climate impact of your diet, follow the link to the ‘Climate Change Food Calculator’ on our website: Earth-Wise-Radio.org. 

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Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers

Climate change food calculator

Photo, posted June 21, 2011, courtesy of USDA NRCS Montana via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wildfire Pollution

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California’s record-breaking wildfires this past season have been an unmitigated disaster with respect to loss of life, property, impact on human health, and in multiple other ways.  And as if all of that was not bad enough, the impact on carbon emissions into the atmosphere was equally catastrophic.  The wildfires were deadly and cost billions of dollars but were also terrible for the environment and for the public’s health.

According to estimates from the U.S. Department of the Interior, the California wildfires released emissions equivalent to about 68 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  That is equal to the emissions from generating one year’s worth of electricity in the state, or about 15% of the total annual emissions in the state of California.

It is a vicious circle in which the changes to the climate that have lengthened the fire season and shortened the precipitation season are creating additional contributions to the warming of the climate.

Over the past century, California has warmed by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit.  That extra-warmed air sucks water out of plants and soils, resulting in trees, shrubs, and rolling grasslands that are dry and primed to burn. That vegetation-drying effect compounds with every additional degree of warming.  Plants lose their water more efficiently as temperatures get higher.

The result is that wildfires are increasing in size both in California and across the western United States. Fire experts at Columbia University estimate that since the 1980s, the warming climate has contributed to an extra 10 million acres of burning in western forests – an area about the size of Massachusetts and Connecticut combined.

It’s a bad situation that is getting worse.

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California’s 2018 Wildfires Have Emitted A Year’s Worth of Power Pollution

Photo, posted October 11, 2017, courtesy of Bob Dass via Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Smog And Solar Power

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China has been struggling with some of the worst air pollution in the world.  Beijing frequently sits under a brown blanket made of exhaust gases from industry, cars and coal fires, which dump harmful particulate matter, soot, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides into the air.

The human health consequences are severe.   According to the World Health Organization,air pollution contributes to about 1.6 million premature deaths in China each year.  World-wide, air pollution is implicated in over 7 million deaths annually.

Faced with this air pollution crisis, China has undertaken a wide variety of measures to improve its air and curb carbon dioxide emissions alongthe way.  Among other things, China has invested heavily in the deployment of solar power and has plans for ever greater expansion of solar power in the future.

A study by researchers at ETH in Zurich looked at the impact of China’s air pollution on the production of solar energy.  The smog in China’s cities reduces the amount of solar radiation that reaches the ground and therefore significantly reduces the power output of solar energy systems. According to the study, solar radiation would increase by an average of 11% nationwide as a result of strict air pollution control measures.  In some places, cleaning up the air would result in 26% more energy production.

China’s electric power industry is the world’s largest electricity producer, having passed the United States in 2011.  Two-thirds of the electricity in China still comes from coal, which, apart from the serious climate and health consequences associated with its use, continues to make it more difficult to switch to clean solar power.  Much work remains to be done.

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Fighting smog supports solar power

Photo, posted February 7, 2014, courtesy of Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Energy Trends For A New Year

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With a new year upon us, there are several energy trends to watch out for.

The most important one is that the fundamental shift toward slow-carbon technologies is continuing. This shift is taking place despite diminishing government policy support and even active government efforts to thwart it.  There is just too much momentum to stand in the way of low-carbon energy technologies.

Analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimate that over the next 30 years over 11 trillion dollars will be invested in energy power generation and power storage assets with 85% of it aimed at zero-carbon emission.  Dramatic reductions in green energy costs have resulted in legitimate cost competition between zero carbon sources of energy and fossil fuel generation.

In the coming year, battery technology will continue to play a growing role both as a storage medium for energy generated by sun and wind and for powering vehicles.

Another trend is that the world’s wealthiest economies are learning to grow without growing the demand for electricity.  This is important in the battle to reduce overall emissions.

Another key issue is addressing the energy needs of people who have no meaningful access to it and there are around 1.5 billion people in that category.   Emerging technologies based on solar power, wind energy, microgrids and other innovations mean that traditional power grids that remain out of reach to these people are not necessary.  There is the potential to address those needs without contributing to climate change.

The world is struggling to deal with the growing problem of the changing climate, but there are trends that provide at least some hope that we can move in the right direction.

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Top 3 clean energy trends to watch out for in 2019

Photo, posted April 5, 2013, courtesy of Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Car Parts From Agricultural Waste

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A new bio-composite material made from date palm fiber biomass could be used to produce sustainable, lightweight and low-cost parts for the automobile and marine industries.

A team of researchers from the UK has developed a date palm fiber polycaprolactone composite that is completely biodegradable, renewable,sustainable and recyclable, in contrast to synthetic composite materials reinforced by glass and carbon fibers. The team tested the mechanical properties of the material and found that it achieved better low-velocity impact resistance than traditional man-made composites.

The idea would be to use the material in non-structural auto parts such as car bumpers and door linings.   The result would be to reduce the weight of vehicles, contributing to less fuel consumption and lower emissions.  The new material can be produced using less energy than glass and carbon fibers and is biodegradable and therefore easier to recycle.

Date palm fibers are one of the most available natural fibers in many parts of the world.  The trees produce a large quantity of agricultural waste, which is mostly burned or land-filled,causing serious environmental problems.

Convincing industry to use a new class of materials such as natural-fiber reinforced composites is challenging.  First it is necessary to obtain consistent,reliable properties from the material. Then the industries need to work closely with the developers to test the materials and convince themselves of the viability of using them.  The team, led by researchers at the University of Portsmouth, has been working with industry to test the viability of parts made from a variety of other sustainable materials as well including flax, hemp, and jute.  Someday, our cars may have bumpers made from agricultural waste.

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Agricultural waste drives us closer to greener transport

Photo, posted October 27, 2017, courtesy of David Stanley via Flickr. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Can We Remove Enough CO2 From The Air?

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As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to set new records and the effects of climate change grow stronger, humanity has continued to procrastinate on reducing emissions.  As a result, it is increasingly clear that any strategy to avoid runaway climate change will have to involve the use of “negative emissions”- techniques or technologies that actually remove CO2 from the air.

There are both low-tech and high-tech methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and both are likely to be needed. 

On the low-tech side, afforestation (planting trees where there were none before), reforestation, changes in forest management, rebuilding the carbon backbone in agricultural soils, and the use of energy from waste biomass are all ways to take carbon out of the atmosphere.

On the high-tech side, direct air capture technologies that take CO2 out of the air and store it in the ground are making rapid progress.   Right now, they are still very expensive,but that is changing.  There is an analogy to wind and solar technology. Not very long ago, both of those technologies were quite expensive but now their costs have plummeted to the point where they are often the cheapest way to make electricity.  With sufficient development effort and deployment, direct air capture technology could become quite affordable.

Some people advocate geoengineering as a solution for climate change.  While removing carbon dioxide amounts to tackling the root cause of the warming climate,geoengineering would address the problem by changing the climate again in some other way.  It is at best an extremely dangerous approach.

Removing CO2 using a combination of natural and man-made techniques is an important part of mitigating the effects of climate change.

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Climate Solutions: Is It Feasible to Remove Enough CO2 from the Air?

Photo courtesy of Climeworks. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cleaner Air For China

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For more than 15 years, the Chinese government has been grappling with some of the deadliest air pollution in the world.  Extreme pollution events are a regular wintertime occurrence and health experts estimate that more than a million people die each year in China from particulate air pollution.

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Capturing CO2 From The Air

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It is increasingly clear that the rate at which carbon dioxide emissions are being reduced is not sufficient to prevent dire consequences of climate change.  It appears that it will be necessary to try to actually remove carbon dioxide from the air.  Such actions are termed “negative emissions.”

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Diesel Is Dirty

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Three years ago, Volkswagen was found to have illegally cheated federal emissions tests in the US using devious programming of emission control devices.  The subterfuge enabled 11 million passenger cars to meet U.S. emissions standards in the laboratory despite that fact that they actually produced up to 40 times higher emissions than the legal limit in real-world driving.

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