consequences

Scientists Call For Geoengineering Research | Earth Wise

April 18, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

A group of more than 60 climate researchers has published an open letter calling for accelerated research into what is called solar radiation management. This means changing the amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the earth by adding various substances into the stratosphere or into the clouds in order to help cool down the planet.

This form of geoengineering is controversial to say the least. While such approaches would most likely be successful in cooling things down, such climate manipulation could have dangerous and unexpected consequences.

For their part, the scientists explicitly state that they do not support the use of solar radiation management or SRM. Their position is that our current level of knowledge is not sufficient to accurately assess potential risks and consequences. What they are advocating is for scientific research to be conducted to support the assessment of the potential effectiveness of various SRM techniques, to determine how these techniques would affect climate change under various greenhouse gas scenarios, and to determine the capabilities for detecting and attributing possible impacts of SRM interventions.

The letter was a response to a larger group of scientists and academics who called for a strict ban on geoengineering, saying that it could divert attention and resources from much-needed greenhouse gas reductions. The new letter claims that gaining additional knowledge about SRM is a critical part of making effective and ethical decisions about its implementation. They state that we have no right to ban the ability to search for a solution to the mess we created.

Opponents of such research are concerned that even pursuing it normalizes in the public eye what could potentially be a catastrophically dangerous activity.

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60 Scientists Call for Accelerated Research Into ‘Solar Radiation Management’ That Could Temporarily Mask Global Warming

Photo, posted February 11, 2006, courtesy of Janice Waltzer via Flickr.

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The All-Time Hottest Day | Earth Wise

February 14, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Last year saw record high temperatures in many places around the world and this year started out with more of the same. In mid-January, Onslow, a small town in Western Australia, measured a high temperature of 123.3 degrees, tying the all-time highest temperature ever recorded anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere. The previous reading was also made in Australia back in 1960.

The new temperature record was set just as climate institutions around the world were announcing that the past seven years have been the highest in recorded history.

The list of temperature records set in 2020 and 2021 is a long one. 2020 was the hottest year in recorded history. July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded. The hottest official temperature ever recorded anywhere in the world was 129.9 degrees, occurring in Death Valley, California on both August 16, 2020, and July 9, 2021.

The hottest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic was 100.4 degrees on June 20, 2020 in Verkhoyansk in Russia’s Sakha Republic. (Amazingly, that small town also holds the record for the coldest temperature ever recorded in Asia at -90 degrees). 2021 saw an all-time high temperature recorded in Europe, in Syracuse, Sicily, on August 11 at 119.8 degrees.

Overall, 400 documented weather stations in communities or outposts worldwide established all-time high temperatures in 2021 alone. The climate we have lived through over the past decades is changing and these changes will have consequences to our way of life.

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Australia hits 123 degrees, tying hottest temperature on record in Southern Hemisphere

Photo, posted January 21, 2013, courtesy of A. Dombrowski via Flickr.

In ogni caso, un proverbio russo comune Informazioni: “Se curi un raffreddore, passa in sette giorni, e se non lo curi, in una settimana”, non è applicabile alla realtà spagnola.

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Once In A Lifetime Floods And Climate Change | Earth Wise

January 8, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Superstorm Sandy was the deadliest hurricane of 2012 and one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit the United States. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Superstorm Sandy caused an estimated $74.1 billion dollars in damages. That figure made it the fourth-costliest storm in U.S. history, trailing only Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and hurricanes Harvey and Maria in 2017. Superstorm Sandy affected 24 states and all of the eastern seaboard.

New York was one of the states pummeled by Superstorm Sandy. The storm brought flood-levels to the region that had not been seen in generations. But according to a new study published in the journal Climatic Change, those flood levels could become much more common.

Researchers at Stevens Institute of Technology have found that 100-year and 500-year flood levels could become regular occurrences by the end of the century for the thousands of homes surrounding Jamaica Bay, NY. The researchers say climate change is the culprit.

Using anticipated greenhouse gas concentration levels, the research team created simulations to find the probability of different flood levels being reached by the end of the century. The researchers found that the historical 100-year flood level would become a one-year flood level by the year 2100. 500-year floods, like Superstorm Sandy, would become a four-year flood level by the end of the century.

While this particular study is specific to Jamaica Bay, it does serve as an example of just how severe and costly the consequences of climate change will be.

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Once in a lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

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The Dangers Of Negative Emissions Technologies | Earth Wise

September 28, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Reducing carbon emissions is not easy and there are plenty of people who don’t even want to try for various reasons, generally related to their perceived economic interests and convenience. As a result, there is a great deal of interest in so-called negative emissions technologies or NETs. These are methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Even the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assumes that NETs will play a role in mitigating the effects of climate change and meeting international goals.

The most widely studied approaches to negative emissions technology are bioenergy with carbon capture and storage – which entails growing crops for fuel, and then capturing and burying the CO2 produced from burning the fuel; planting more forests; and direct air capture, which involves actually pulling CO2 out of the air and storing it – probably underground.

A new study published in Nature Climate Change points out that none of these technologies has even been tried at the demonstration scale, much less at the massive levels required to make a dent in current CO2 emissions.

Their analysis of the biofuel and reforestation strategies show that each would take up vast land and water resources already needed for agriculture and nature. Air capture uses less water than the other two approaches, but still uses quite a bit and even more energy, which if supplied by fossil fuels, would offset the benefits of carbon capture.

Negative emissions technologies may well play an important role in combating climate change, but it is essential that we understand what the consequences will be from implementing them. We need to know the pitfalls that could arise. It would be a major mistake to simply count on NETs to be some kind of silver bullet.

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Remove CO2 from the air? Don’t bet on it before examining costs, researchers say

Photo, posted January 11, 2008, courtesy of Al Pavangkanan via Flickr.

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Shrinking Alaskan Salmon | Earth Wise

September 24, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new study published in the journal Nature Communications, salmon returning to Alaskan rivers have become significantly smaller over the past 60 years. As a result of climate change and competition from hatchery fish, wild salmon are spending less time at sea and are returning to spawning grounds at younger ages.

The study, by scientists at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and the University of California Santa Cruz, examined measurements of over 12 million fish collected by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game from 1957 through 2018. Over that time period, four out of Alaska’s five wild salmon species – Chinook, chum, coho, and sockeye – have shrunk in size. Chinook salmon is the official state fish of Alaska and they used to stay out at sea for seven years before returning to spawn. Many are now returning to rivers at just four years old and are on average 8% smaller than they were 30 years ago.

The shrinking size of Alaskan salmon has consequences for people, the economy, and ecosystems in Alaska. Wild salmon is a staple food for many residents of the state, particularly among indigenous groups. More generally, Alaska produces nearly all of the wild salmon in the U.S. Commercial fishing of over 200 million wild salmon in 2019 resulted in $657 million in income. The fish are also an important food source for bears and other wildlife and the spawning migration of salmon plays an important role in nutrient transportation in Alaskan river ecosystems.

Multiple factors are driving the changes in the salmon population, but the largest effects are the changing climate and the abundance of salmon in the ocean due in part to hatchery production that results in competition for the salmon’s food.

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Alaska’s Salmon Are Significantly Smaller Than They Were 60 Years Ago

Photo, posted September 5, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

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The Decline Of Pollinators Threatens Food Security | Earth Wise

August 24, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators for many years. According to a United Nations-sponsored report, 40% of invertebrate pollinator species, including bees and butterflies, are facing extinction. Approximately 80% of all flowering plant species, which are responsible for 35% of global food production, depend on pollination.

According to new research led by Rutgers University, crop yields for apples, blueberries, and cherries in the United States are being reduced by a lack of pollinators. The study, the most comprehensive of its kind to date, found that crop production would be increased if crop flowers received more pollination. In the U.S., the production of crops that depend on pollinators generates more than $50 billion a year.

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, researchers collected data on insect pollination of crop flowers and yield of apples, highbush blueberries, sweet cherries, tart cherries, almonds, watermelons, and pumpkins at 131 farms across the United States and British Columbia, Canada. Four of those seven crops – apples, blueberries, sweet cherries, and tart cherries – showed evidence of being limited by pollination, meaning that their yields are lower than they would be with full pollination.

The researchers observed that honey bees and wild bees provided similar amounts of overall pollination, so managing habitat for native bee species or stocking more honey bees would boost pollination levels and, in turn, crop production.

Bees and other pollinators play a critical role in food production, and their continued decline could have devastating consequences.

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Decline of bees, other pollinators threatens US crop yields

Photo, posted April 22, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

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Increasing Air Pollution | Earth Wise

July 27, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to researchers from the University of Exeter, half of the world’s population is exposed to increasing air pollution despite global efforts to improve air quality. The study, which was completed in conjunction with the World Health Organization, suggests that air pollution represents a major and growing threat to human health.

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, the researchers reviewed global air quality trends between 2010 and 2016. The research team examined those findings against a backdrop of global policies to reduce air pollution. The researchers used ground monitoring data and satellite data to develop yearly air quality profiles for individual countries and regions.

The scientists focused on fine particulate matter, which is a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air. Some of the particles, like dust, soot, or smoke, are large enough to be seen by the naked eye. Others are so small that they can only be seen using a microscope. Inhaling fine particulate matter can cause all sorts of health issues, including asthma, respiratory inflammation, and even promote cancer.

For much of the world’s population, the consequences of polluted air are more deadly than war, violence, and many diseases. According to the World Health Organization, more than four million deaths every year can be attributed to outdoor air pollution. Some of the major sources of air pollution include coal-fired power plants, agriculture, transportation, and deforestation.

The study found that low and middle income countries experience the highest burden of air pollution around the world, with the largest concentrations found in central and southeastern Asia.

More long term policies are needed to curb this growing threat to public health.

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Half of the world’s population exposed to increasing air pollution

Photo, posted August 2, 2019, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Side Effects Of Geoengineering | Earth Wise

July 20, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

As the world struggles to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the global climate, some researchers are exploring proposals to deliberately engineer climate changes to counteract the warming trend. One of the most widely discussed approaches is to shade the Earth from a portion of the sun’s heat by injecting the stratosphere with reflective aerosol particles. Proponents of this idea point out that volcanoes do essentially the same thing, although generally for only a limited amount of time. Particularly large eruptions, such as the Krakatowa eruption of 1883, wreaked havoc with weather around the world for an entire year.

Schemes to launch reflective aerosols – using planes, balloons, and even blimps – appear to be quite feasible from the standpoint of physically accomplishing them. But this says nothing about the political, ethical, and societal issues involved. The point is that such an approach could indeed lower global temperatures and thereby potentially offset the warming effects of greenhouse gases.

A study by scientists at MIT looked at what other effects such a solar geoengineering project might have on the climate. Their modeling concluded that it would significantly change storm tracks in the middle and high latitudes. These tracks give rise to cyclones, hurricanes, and many more ordinary weather phenomena.

According to the study, the northern hemisphere would have weakened storm tracks, leading to less powerful winter storms, but also stagnant conditions in summer and less wind to clear away air pollution. In the southern hemisphere, there would be more powerful storm tracks.

Aside from turning the world’s weather patterns inside out, solar geoengineering would do nothing to address the serious issue of ocean acidification caused by increasing carbon dioxide levels.

As many have pointed out, playing the geoengineering game would have many unintended consequences.

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Study: Reflecting sunlight to cool the planet will cause other global changes

Photo courtesy of MIT.

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Oil Platforms And Fish | Earth Wise

July 16, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

It is well-known that offshore oil platforms become major habitats for fish. Their support structures rise hundreds of feet through the water column and basically create a prefabricated reef for marine life. Many of these platforms will soon be decommissioned and government agencies are considering the consequences to undersea life when this happens.

Researchers at the University of California Santa Barbara have looked at how various decommissioning scenarios would affect undersea ecosystems. They found that completely removing a platform could reduce fish biomass by an average of 95%. In contrast, removing just the top part of the rig could keep losses to around 10%.

California is looking at several possibilities for decommissioning 27 oil platforms off of its coast. The three options are: leave the platform in place, remove all of it, or remove just the top part of it. Each option entails its own economic and ecological consequences.

The research team studied the size and composition of fish communities at 24 platforms and created models for each of the decommissioning scenarios. The partial removal approach involved stripping away all structures within 26 meters of the surface. This number would eliminate the need for a lighted buoy where the support structure remained according to U.S. Coast Guard guidelines.

For the 24 structures studied, leaving them entirely in place would support over 29,000 kilograms of fish biomass. Removing just the top 26 meters would support nearly 28,000 kilograms. Removing the platforms entirely would support only 500 kilograms of fish biomass.

As California weighs how to decommission its oil platforms, studies like this will be critical to making informed decisions.

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Oil Platforms’ Fishy Future

Photo, posted June 4, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

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More Extreme Wildfire Seasons | Earth Wise

April 29, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new study led by researchers at Stanford University, autumn in California feels more like summer now as a result of climate change, and this hotter and drier weather increases the risk of longer and more dangerous wildfire seasons.

The research team, whose work was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that the frequency of extreme fire weather conditions in the fall in California has doubled since the early 1980s. Average temperatures during the season have increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and rainfall has fallen by approximately 30%. The most pronounced warming has occurred in the late summer and early fall. That finding means that tinder-dry conditions coincide with the strong “Diablo” and “Santa Ana” winds that are typical in California at this time of year.

In recent years, these conditions have fed large and fast-moving wildfires across California. The state’s two largest wildfires, two most destructive wildfires, and the most deadly wildfire all occurred during 2017 and 2018, resulting in more than 150 deaths and $50 billion in damage.

Because summertime has typically been peak fire season, the recent spate of autumn fires is putting a strain on firefighting resources and funding. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could further strain emergency resources. Since fire-prone regions have historically shared wildfire-fighting resources throughout the year, the consequences of California’s extended wildfire season could have a global impact. (For example, California’s recent autumn wildfires have coincided with the beginning of wildfires in Australia).

The researchers highlight some opportunities to manage the intensifying wildfire risk in California, including limiting the trajectory of global warming in keeping with the targets identified in the United Nations’ Paris agreement.

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Researchers forecast longer, more extreme wildfire seasons

Photo, posted September 12, 2019, courtesy of the California National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Ecological Trap For Polar Bears | Earth Wise

March 17, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Climate change has been shrinking Arctic sea ice and this is causing changes in the behavior of polar bears. The Southern Beaufort Sea, located where the northern edges of Alaska and Canada meet, is home to one of the 19 population groups of polar bears. Historically, the polar bears in this region remained on sea ice year-round. But in recent decades, about a quarter of them have chosen to come on land instead of staying on the shrinking summer ice platform.

A recent study by San Diego Zoo Global, the U.S. Geological Survey, and Polar Bears International looked at the energetic consequences of the bears’ behavior. The decision of each individual bear to stay on the ice or move to land appears to be linked to the energetic cost or benefit of the choice.

Bears who moved to land expended more energy during the summer than bears that remained on the sea ice. In late summer, as the ice became even more restricted, a greater amount of energy was expended by bears swimming to land. So, the immediate energy cost of moving to land is much greater than remaining on the receding pack ice.

On the other hand, bears on land in this region have access to whale carcasses in the summer while bears on the sea ice appear to be fasting. As a result, it may be the case that the declining population of bears in this region is in part caused by the ecological trap of bears staying on the ice to avoid expending all the energy needed to move to land. The shrinking polar ice is a real problem for polar bears.

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Energetics Study Indicates that Shrinking Sea Ice Is Creating an Ecological Trap for Polar Bears

Photo, posted October 30, 2011, courtesy of Martin Lopatka via Flickr.

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Cooling The Earth With A Warmer Arctic | Climate Change | Earth Wise

January 24, 2020 By EarthWise 1 Comment

Researchers are considering a wide range of approaches to mitigate the effects of global climate change. Among these are various strategies of geoengineering, which must be viewed with enormous caution, given the high likelihood of unintended consequences from almost anything we might do.

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis have investigated potential strategies for cooling the planet in the absence of Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic region is heating up faster than any other place on earth and its sea ice is rapidly disappearing. Estimates are that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will be largely gone within a generation. Arctic ice and snow reflect the sun’s energy into space, which helps to keep the planet cool. What happens if that ice is gone?

The researchers explored the fact that the Arctic Ocean ice actually insulates the Arctic atmosphere from the warmer water under the ice. Without the ice layer, the surface water would actually increase air temperatures by 20 degrees C during the winter. That in turn would increase the heat irradiated into space and thereby cool down the planet.

The Arctic sea ice is in part maintained because the upper regions of the Arctic Ocean have lower salinity than the Atlantic Ocean. This stops Atlantic water from flowing above the cold Arctic waters. So, if we were to somehow deliberately increase the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface water, warmer, less salty Atlantic Ocean water would flow in, increase the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere, and release heat trapped in the ocean into space.

It all sounds pretty crazy, but the researchers say that given the seriousness of climate change, all options should be considered when dealing with it.

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Could we cool the Earth with an ice-free Arctic?

Photo, posted August 19, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

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Bird Migration And Climate Change | Earth Wise

January 22, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

A new study of bird migration shows the migration patterns are shifting as a result of climate change. Researchers at Colorado State University, the University of Massachusetts, and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, looked at the impacts of climate change on a continental scale.

The team looked at the nocturnal migratory behaviors of hundreds of species representing billions of birds using radar and other data. They found that spring migrants are likely to pass certain stops earlier now than they would have 20 years ago. Temperature and migration timing are closely aligned and the greatest changes in migration timing are occurring in regions warming most rapidly. During the fall, shifts in migration were less apparent.

Migratory birds play an important role in ecosystems. They consume insects, disperse seeds, and perform various other significant functions. Birds serve as critical metrics of the health of ecosystems.

Bird migration is a global phenomenon that can provide unique visibility into changes in the climate. The ability to look at it on a global scale has only recently become practical as a result of big data technology and cloud computing. The team was able to crunch the numbers for the study in 48 hours, a task that previously would have taken over a year of continuous computing.

The findings have implications for understanding future patterns of bird migration because birds depend on food and other resources as they travel. As the climate changes, the timing of blooming vegetation or the emergence of insects may end up out of sync with the passage of migratory birds. This could have negative consequences for the health of migratory birds.

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Bird migration timing skewed by climate, new research finds

Photo, posted November 5, 2019, courtesy of Jerry Kirkhart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Upside Of Climate Change

October 15, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In contrast with most countries in the world, the main political factions in the United States have very different views of climate change. Somehow, one side of the aisle remains skeptical about the changing climate even as temperature records are broken, arctic ice disappears, and powerful storms become increasingly common.

But putting aside the increasingly inexplicable political schism about climate change, there are instances where the consequences of the warming climate are not all dire. In fact, there are places where climate change is having a positive effect.

One such place is West Virginia, where research studies are finding a real upside to the changing climate.

A recent study of the climate in West Virginia over the period from 1900 to 2016 found the maximum temperatures trended downward, average minimum temperatures ascended, and annual precipitation increased. On average, West Virginians are now seeing cooler summers, warmer winters and wetter weather.

Given these changes, there have been big changes in agriculture. Yields of important crops like hay, corn, winter wheat, and soybeans have all increased. The winter season has shrunk by as much as 20 days and the growing season itself has increased by approximately 13 days. A number of crops that historically did not fare well in West Virginia may now become viable. It may even be possible to pursue double cropping, meaning that the longer growing season may allow farmers to raise one crop, harvest it, and then raise and harvest a second crop within the same year.

In the big picture, climate change is shaping up as a global calamity, but for a few people in certain places – such as West Virginia – it may have some real upside.

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The positive implications of…climate change? WVU researcher sees agricultural, food availability and economic possibilities

Photo, posted November 12, 2014, courtesy of Mike via Flickr.

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Falling Bee Populations

September 9, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

For many years, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators. A reported 40% of invertebrate pollinator species, including bees and butterflies, are facing extinction. And since as much as three-quarters of the world’s food crops depend on pollination, the decline of these pollinators poses a major threat to global food security.

Pollinators aid in the production of all sorts of crops, including coffee, cacao, cotton, apples, and almonds – to name a few. The global value of crops requiring pollination ranges from $235-$577 billion annually.

Honey bees are among the struggling pollinators. Over the past 15 years, bee colonies have been disappearing at an alarming rate in what is known as the “colony collapse disorder.” Some regions have seen losses of up to 90%.

In the United States, managed honey bee populations declined by nearly 40% over this past winter, the largest such winter decline since surveying began in 2006.

In recent months, mass honey bee declines have also been reported in Russia, according to the BBC. Russia, which produces a whopping 110,000 tons of honey annually, expects that figure to drop by as much as 20%. The widespread bee decline is likely to not only push up honey prices, but the prices of other popular foods as well. Many staple food crops in Russia, including sunflowers, buckwheat, and fruit trees, rely on bees for pollination.

Experts have blamed the bee decline crisis on a combination of factors, including pesticides (most notably neonicotinoids), varroa mites, and climate change.

Bees play a vital role in food production, and their continued decline will have devastating consequences.

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Russia alarmed by large fall in bee populations

Photo, posted July 28, 2019, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Exotic Pets Can Become Problems

August 26, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Each year, millions of exotic animals are sold as pets around the world. The term “exotic” lacks a set definition but is generally used to refer to an animal that’s wild or more unusual than standard pets, like cats and dogs.

The exotic pet trade is a multi-billion dollar industry, involving tens of millions of individual animals from thousands of species, including reptiles, amphibians, fish, birds, and mammals.

Some of the exotic pet trade is legal, but a lot of it isn’t. Many animals are illegally captured from the wild to meet the global demand for exotic pets.

People often purchase exotic animals without completely understanding the consequences. Some exotic pets, for example, can live nearly twice as long as the average dog. Caring for exotic pets can be both expensive and risky, since they are largely undomesticated (and therefore can have unpredictable behavior).

As a result, it’s not uncommon for owners to release exotic pets intentionally. When this happens, the consequences can be catastrophic. Sometimes the animal dies from starvation or predation, but in other instances, the animal proliferates and becomes an invasive species.

Invasive species are the second largest driver of biodiversity loss worldwide, and they cost the U.S. $120 billion a year.

According to an academic review recently published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, the exotic pet trade is one of the primary causes of the spread of invasive species and has fueled the establishment of hundreds of them. Tegus, Burmese pythons, and red lionfish are examples of pets-turned-pests.

The best way to combat this trend is through education, detection, and rapid response.

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