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It’s only getting warmer

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Climate science is not popular with the current administration.  Phrases like “climate crisis”, “clean energy”, and “climate science” itself are prohibited from websites, reports, regulations, and other communications by government employees and federal funding recipients.  Once again, the United States is turning away from climate mitigation efforts and will have a drastically reduced ability to forecast disasters and head off their worst consequences.

Meanwhile, global warming continues, and the planet can’t withdraw from its consequences.

The hottest year in nearly two centuries was recorded in 2024.  According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% chance that at least one year over the next four will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. 

The consequences of warming will probably vary widely across the world.  But likely occurrences include rapid thawing of Arctic Sea ice, drier seasons in the Amazon, excess rain in places like Alaska, northern Europe, and the Sahel in north-central Africa.  Hotter temperatures lead to more evaporation of water from plants and soil, leading to droughts and failed crop seasons.  The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which increases the chance of flooding from downpours and stronger hurricanes.

Ignoring what is going on with the climate or thinking that it will only impact other people in other places is nothing short of foolhardy.  The planet does not care about politics.  What is happening to the climate will be in just about everyone’s backyard soon enough.

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‘It’s pretty bleak’: A warming planet is poised to get even hotter, forecasters warn

Photo, posted December 1, 2015, courtesy of Adam Matsumoto via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Saharan dust and solar power

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The world is a big place but even things that are far away can have serious local consequences.  The effects of distant Canadian wildfires on air quality in Florida is a good example.

Europe is increasingly becoming reliant on solar energy to meet its targets for climate change mitigation and energy security.   According to new research by four Hungarian universities, mineral dust carried on the wind from the Sahara Desert is not only reducing electricity generation from solar power across Europe but it is also making it harder to predict what gets generated.

The Sahara releases billions of tons of fine dust into the atmosphere each year.  Tens of millions of tons reach European skies where the tiny particles scatter and absorb sunlight, reduce the amount of light reaching the surface, and even promote cloud formation.   All of these things reduce the output of photovoltaic systems.

In addition, conventional weather forecasting tools don’t consider the effects of Saharan dust events, so that scheduling of solar power for the energy system becomes less reliable.  Incorporating these events into new forecast models will be essential.

Apart from the atmospheric effects of the dust, there are also long-term impacts due to dust contaminating and eroding the physical infrastructure of solar panels thereby further reducing their efficiency and increasing maintenance costs.

Over time, south-to-north transport of Saharan dust is likely to become more pronounced due to a steeper thermal gradient.  Currently, the quantities of atmospheric dust, the dynamics of its transport, and the physical properties of the dust itself are not very well understood.  Understanding these things will be crucial for Europe’s energy future.

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The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe’s dusty skies

Photo, posted March 11, 2023, courtesy of Mark Wordy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Are today’s refrigerants safe?

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Refrigeration is based on heat transfer mediums that absorb heat from the area being cooled and transfer it to the outside environment.

The earliest refrigerants were dangerous substances like ammonia.  In the 1930s, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) like Freon became the standard refrigerant for use in refrigeration systems and even in aerosol cans.  When these substances were found to be depleting the earth’s ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol dictated their phaseout and by the mid-1990s, CFCs were largely replaced by hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

HFCs don’t deplete the ozone layer, but they were eventually determined to be potent greenhouse gases, thousands of times more planet-warming than carbon dioxide.   As a result, the global phaseout of HFCs began in 2016, and have been increasingly replaced by hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), which are considered a more environmentally-friendly alternative to all their predecessors.

Trying to not be surprised by additional unpleasant discoveries about refrigerants, researchers are studying the potential environmental impacts of HFOs.  Researchers at the University of New South Wales in Australia have found that HFOs can break down in the atmosphere and that some small amounts of the resultant products are in fact fluoroforms, which are the HFC with the greatest global warming potential and can stay in the atmosphere for up to 200 years.

That only a small amount of HFC gets into the atmosphere is good, but nevertheless it reveals that the consequences of replacing widely-used chemicals are not a simple matter to determine.

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Are our refrigerants safe? The lingering questions about the chemicals keeping us cool

Photo, posted July 19, 2021, courtesy of Vernon Air Conditioning via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Thawing permafrost in the Arctic

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Permafrost covers about a quarter of the landmass in the Northern Hemisphere.  It stores vast quantities of organic carbon in the form of dead plant matter.  As long as it stays frozen, it is no threat to the climate.  But as permafrost thaws, microorganisms start breaking down that plant matter and large amounts of carbon are released into the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide and methane.

Scientists estimate that there could be two and a half times as much carbon trapped in Arctic permafrost as there is in the atmosphere today.

Thawing permafrost poses various risks to the Arctic environment and the livelihoods of its people.  According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Vienna in Austria, Umeå University in Sweden, and the Technical University of Denmark, thawing permafrost threatens the way of life of up to three million people.

To identify these risks, the research team studied four Arctic regions in Norway, Greenland, Canada, and Russia between 2017 and 2023.  The research, which was recently published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, identified five key hazards posed by the thawing permafrost: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supply, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants.

These are present developments – not future dangers.  Global scientific cooperation, policy interventions, and investment in research are critical to mitigate the impact of thawing permafrost and address the broader consequences it brings.

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A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw

Thawing permafrost threatens up to three million people in Arctic regions

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of Benjamin Jones / USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Research on solar geoengineering

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Ideas for potential technologies that could artificially cool the planet as a countermeasure against global warming have been considered radical and dangerous for a long time.  But as climate change continues to become increasingly apparent, ideas like solar geoengineering are gaining increasing attention.

Most environmental organizations are at best skeptical about such ideas and oppose them.  Their opposition is in part based on the assertion that there are no quick fixes for climate change and that not addressing its root causes is a dangerous path to take.  But an even greater concern is that intentionally manipulating global temperatures is likely to have a host of unintended consequences that could prove disastrous.

One of the world’s largest environmental organizations, the Environmental Defense Fund, has decided to fund research into solar geoengineering.  The EDF cautions that is in not in favor of deploying such technology.  Its position is that the discussion about ways to cool the planet is not going away and cannot be ignored.  The lack of proper research can promote unfounded optimism about such technology  So, they are going to fund research that can provide information based on solid, well-formulated science.

A major focus will be what other effects technologies like cloud brightening and injecting aerosols into the atmosphere might have apart from providing cooling. 

The EDF’s own position is that deliberate climate interventions present serious ecological, moral, and geopolitical concerns.  However, they believe that policymakers need to be informed by the most accurate information possible.

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Environmental Group to Study Effects of Artificially Cooling Earth

Photo, posted February 3, 2008, courtesy of Camilla Cannarsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Storing carbon underground and abandoned wells

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Using government support in the form of subsidies and tax credits, energy companies and others are planning to capture millions of tons of industrial carbon dioxide emissions and pipe the greenhouse gas into underground storage.  It is a strategy enthusiastically supported by the fossil fuel industry because it allows them to keep burning the stuff.

There are currently 69 projects being reviewed by federal and state regulators seeking to store CO2 underground.  The sorts of places where carbon dioxide can be injected are geologic zones containing porous rock formations which, in no way coincidentally, are the same places where oil and gas deposits are found.  As a result, these places are studded with abandoned wells that have accumulated over the past century.

In Louisiana, there are about 120,000 abandoned wells that overlie geological zones that could store carbon dioxide.  Environmental watchdog groups have identified numerous abandoned wells within a few miles of proposed storage sites.

The problem is that abandoned wells leak – even ones that have been plugged – and many haven’t been.  The question is how much leakage will occur and what will be the consequences of the leakage.  In Texas, pumping oilfield wastewater into abandoned wells has led to geysers of toxic water, artificial saline lakes, and earthquakes.

Underground carbon dioxide sequestering on a scale large enough to really matter will have to extend to very large areas.  For example, injecting 100 million tons per year could create a pressurized zone as large as 100 miles.  How large a problem this might create from abandoned wells in the zone is not at all clear but cannot be ignored.

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Companies Are Poised to Inject Millions of Tons of Carbon Underground. Will It Stay Put?

Photo, posted December 3, 2023, courtesy of Jason Woodhead via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Positive tipping points and climate

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We often hear about tipping points and climate change.  Tipping points are critical thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating, and often irreversible changes.  Some of the ones of concern with the climate are thawing permafrost, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and global temperatures reaching certain levels.  These are all tipping points that are essential to avoid.

A study published in the journal One Earth by researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK contends that in order to avoid the severe consequences of climate change, we need to trigger some positive tipping points.

Many climate-friendly changes are happening too slowly.  Triggering positive tipping points is a way to rapidly reach the high levels of decarbonization required to avoid triggering the negative tipping points of great concern.

Reaching a positive tipping point is a way that beneficial changes can rapidly gain momentum.  One example is the adoption of electric vehicles.  It has clearly reached a tipping point across Scandinavia and has happened rapidly.  Norway has managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to nearly 90% in less than 10 years.  At some point, everybody wanted an electric car.  This is evidence that positive tipping points can happen.

Many of the other forms of decarbonization need to move from their current level of adoption to rapid expansion.  A combination of affordability, attractiveness, availability, and political will are needed to trigger tipping points.  Exactly what those tipping point are is not necessarily known, but unless something accelerates the current pace of change, it will be very difficult to prevent negative climate tipping points from changing the world in destructive ways.

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Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis

Photo, posted July 8, 2023, courtesy of Michael Swan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Uncounted emissions

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Most countries around the world have pledged to cut their carbon emissions to try to reduce the effects of climate change.  The extent to which countries are meeting their emission reduction goals has been the primary way of keeping score on their efforts.  But there is a major problem with this scorekeeping system: exporting fossil fuels does not count as part of a country’s contributions to emissions.

Exports of fossil fuel are the driving force of fossil fuel expansion around the world and a significant fraction of those exports come from powerful and wealthy nations that are essential to the effort to reduce carbon emissions.

Our own country is a prime example.  The U.S. is working to cut back its carbon emissions.  The Inflation Reduction Act is driving the reduction of domestic use of oil, gas, and coal and is providing subsidies for the use of heat pumps and the buildout of EV charging networks.  However, at the same time, U.S. production of fossil fuels is booming, driving substantial profits for that industry.  The result is that much of the expanding supply of fossil fuels is headed overseas.

American liquified natural gas exports are growing rapidly.  Estimates are that by 2030, United States LNG exports will be responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than every house, car, and factory in the European Union.  And, according to the UN emissions accounting system, none of those emissions will be attributed to the United States. 

The situation is rather disastrous.  Countries use this loophole to claim they are doing their part to reduce emissions, but the world is continuing to suffer the consequences.

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Uncounted Emissions: The Hidden Cost of Fossil Fuel Exports

Photo, posted January 9, 2015, courtesy of Bernard Spragg via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Geoengineering could create winners and losers

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Geoengineering – deliberate interventions to alter the climate and curb climate change – is a controversial topic, to say the least.  Once practically considered taboo even to discuss, there in increasing interest in at least exploring various ideas about how to halt or reverse climate change through direct actions that impact global temperatures.

Putting aside the very real concerns about the risks and dangers associated with such action, there is also the issue that climate interventions may create dramatically different effects across the globe, benefitting some areas and adversely affecting others.

A recent study by scientists at Rutgers University tackled this very issue.  Published in the journal Nature Food, it described the results of computer models simulating the impacts of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), which is spraying sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, where it would partially shield the Earth from the Sun, lowering temperatures.

The study looked at 11 different SAI scenarios and found that none of them benefitted everyone.  Uncontrolled global warming favors crop production in cold, high-latitude areas such as Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, and our northern border states.  Moderate amounts of SAI favors food production in the mid-latitudes (such as in the US and Europe.)  Large amounts of intervention favors agricultural production in the tropics. 

Even if geoengineering might not have dire consequences – which is by no means certain – it would create winners and losers.  Nations may have different ideas of what constitutes an optimal global temperature.  So, who gets to decide where to set the global thermostat?  The prospects for conflict loom large. 

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Climate Intervention Technologies May Create Winners and Losers in World Food Supply

Photo, posted November 18, 2021, courtesy of Conall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Scientists Call For Geoengineering Research | Earth Wise

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A group of more than 60 climate researchers has published an open letter calling for accelerated research into what is called solar radiation management.  This means changing the amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the earth by adding various substances into the stratosphere or into the clouds in order to help cool down the planet.

This form of geoengineering is controversial to say the least.  While such approaches would most likely be successful in cooling things down, such climate manipulation could have dangerous and unexpected consequences.

For their part, the scientists explicitly state that they do not support the use of solar radiation management or SRM.  Their position is that our current level of knowledge is not sufficient to accurately assess potential risks and consequences.  What they are advocating is for scientific research to be conducted to support the assessment of the potential effectiveness of various SRM techniques, to determine how these techniques would affect climate change under various greenhouse gas scenarios, and to determine the capabilities for detecting and attributing possible impacts of SRM interventions.

The letter was a response to a larger group of scientists and academics who called for a strict ban on geoengineering, saying that it could divert attention and resources from much-needed greenhouse gas reductions.  The new letter claims that gaining additional knowledge about SRM is a critical part of making effective and ethical decisions about its implementation.  They state that we have no right to ban the ability to search for a solution to the mess we created.

Opponents of such research are concerned that even pursuing it normalizes in the public eye what could potentially be a catastrophically dangerous activity.

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60 Scientists Call for Accelerated Research Into ‘Solar Radiation Management’ That Could Temporarily Mask Global Warming

Photo, posted February 11, 2006, courtesy of Janice Waltzer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The All-Time Hottest Day | Earth Wise

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Last year saw record high temperatures in many places around the world and this year started out with more of the same.  In mid-January, Onslow, a small town in Western Australia, measured a high temperature of 123.3 degrees, tying the all-time highest temperature ever recorded anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere.  The previous reading was also made in Australia back in 1960.

The new temperature record was set just as climate institutions around the world were announcing that the past seven years have been the highest in recorded history.

The list of temperature records set in 2020 and 2021 is a long one.   2020 was the hottest year in recorded history.  July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded.   The hottest official temperature ever recorded anywhere in the world was 129.9 degrees, occurring in Death Valley, California on both August 16, 2020, and July 9, 2021. 

The hottest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic was 100.4 degrees on June 20, 2020 in Verkhoyansk in Russia’s Sakha Republic.  (Amazingly, that small town also holds the record for the coldest temperature ever recorded in Asia at -90 degrees). 2021 saw an all-time high temperature recorded in Europe, in Syracuse, Sicily, on August 11 at 119.8 degrees. 

Overall, 400 documented weather stations in communities or outposts worldwide established all-time high temperatures in 2021 alone.  The climate we have lived through over the past decades is changing and these changes will have consequences to our way of life.

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Australia hits 123 degrees, tying hottest temperature on record in Southern Hemisphere

Photo, posted January 21, 2013, courtesy of A. Dombrowski via Flickr.

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Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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Once In A Lifetime Floods And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Superstorm Sandy was the deadliest hurricane of 2012 and one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit the United States.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Superstorm Sandy caused an estimated $74.1 billion dollars in damages.  That figure made it the fourth-costliest storm in U.S. history, trailing only Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and hurricanes Harvey and Maria in 2017.  Superstorm Sandy affected 24 states and all of the eastern seaboard.  

New York was one of the states pummeled by Superstorm Sandy.  The storm brought flood-levels to the region that had not been seen in generations.  But according to a new study published in the journal Climatic Change, those flood levels could become much more common. 

Researchers at Stevens Institute of Technology have found that 100-year and 500-year flood levels could become regular occurrences by the end of the century for the thousands of homes surrounding Jamaica Bay, NY.  The researchers say climate change is the culprit.  

Using anticipated greenhouse gas concentration levels, the research team created simulations to find the probability of different flood levels being reached by the end of the century.  The researchers found that the historical 100-year flood level would become a one-year flood level by the year 2100.  500-year floods, like Superstorm Sandy, would become a four-year flood level by the end of the century. 

While this particular study is specific to Jamaica Bay, it does serve as an example of just how severe and costly the consequences of climate change will be.   

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Once in a lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

 

The Dangers Of Negative Emissions Technologies | Earth Wise

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Reducing carbon emissions is not easy and there are plenty of people who don’t even want to try for various reasons, generally related to their perceived economic interests and convenience.  As a result, there is a great deal of interest in so-called negative emissions technologies or NETs.   These are methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  Even the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assumes that NETs will play a role in mitigating the effects of climate change and meeting international goals.

The most widely studied approaches to negative emissions technology are bioenergy with carbon capture and storage – which entails growing crops for fuel, and then capturing and burying the CO2 produced from burning the fuel; planting more forests; and direct air capture, which involves actually pulling CO2 out of the air and storing it – probably underground. 

A new study published in Nature Climate Change points out that none of these technologies has even been tried at the demonstration scale, much less at the massive levels required to make a dent in current CO2 emissions. 

Their analysis of the biofuel and reforestation strategies show that each would take up vast land and water resources already needed for agriculture and nature.  Air capture uses less water than the other two approaches, but still uses quite a bit and even more energy, which if supplied by fossil fuels, would offset the benefits of carbon capture.

Negative emissions technologies may well play an important role in combating climate change, but it is essential that we understand what the consequences will be from implementing them.  We need to know the pitfalls that could arise.  It would be a major mistake to simply count on NETs to be some kind of silver bullet.

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Remove CO2 from the air? Don’t bet on it before examining costs, researchers say

Photo, posted January 11, 2008, courtesy of Al Pavangkanan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Shrinking Alaskan Salmon | Earth Wise

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According to a new study published in the journal Nature Communications, salmon returning to Alaskan rivers have become significantly smaller over the past 60 years.  As a result of climate change and competition from hatchery fish, wild salmon are spending less time at sea and are returning to spawning grounds at younger ages.

The study, by scientists at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and the University of California Santa Cruz, examined measurements of over 12 million fish collected by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game from 1957 through 2018.  Over that time period, four out of Alaska’s five wild salmon species – Chinook, chum, coho, and sockeye – have shrunk in size.  Chinook salmon is the official state fish of Alaska and they used to stay out at sea for seven years before returning to spawn.  Many are now returning to rivers at just four years old and are on average 8% smaller than they were 30 years ago.

The shrinking size of Alaskan salmon has consequences for people, the economy, and ecosystems in Alaska.   Wild salmon is a staple food for many residents of the state, particularly among indigenous groups.  More generally, Alaska produces nearly all of the wild salmon in the U.S.   Commercial fishing of over 200 million wild salmon in 2019 resulted in $657 million in income.  The fish are also an important food source for bears and other wildlife and the spawning migration of salmon plays an important role in nutrient transportation in Alaskan river ecosystems.


Multiple factors are driving the changes in the salmon population, but the largest effects are the changing climate and the abundance of salmon in the ocean due in part to hatchery production that results in competition for the salmon’s food.

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Alaska’s Salmon Are Significantly Smaller Than They Were 60 Years Ago

Photo, posted September 5, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Decline Of Pollinators Threatens Food Security | Earth Wise

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Scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators for many years.  According to a United Nations-sponsored report, 40% of invertebrate pollinator species, including bees and butterflies, are facing extinction.  Approximately 80% of all flowering plant species, which are responsible for 35% of global food production, depend on pollination. 

According to new research led by Rutgers University, crop yields for apples, blueberries, and cherries in the United States are being reduced by a lack of pollinators.  The study, the most comprehensive of its kind to date, found that crop production would be increased if crop flowers received more pollination.  In the U.S., the production of crops that depend on pollinators generates more than $50 billion a year.    

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, researchers collected data on insect pollination of crop flowers and yield of apples, highbush blueberries, sweet cherries, tart cherries, almonds, watermelons, and pumpkins at 131 farms across the United States and British Columbia, Canada.  Four of those seven crops – apples, blueberries, sweet cherries, and tart cherries – showed evidence of being limited by pollination, meaning that their yields are lower than they would be with full pollination. 

The researchers observed that honey bees and wild bees provided similar amounts of overall pollination, so managing habitat for native bee species or stocking more honey bees would boost pollination levels and, in turn, crop production.

Bees and other pollinators play a critical role in food production, and their continued decline could have devastating consequences.

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Decline of bees, other pollinators threatens US crop yields

Photo, posted April 22, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Increasing Air Pollution | Earth Wise

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According to researchers from the University of Exeter, half of the world’s population is exposed to increasing air pollution despite global efforts to improve air quality.  The study, which was completed in conjunction with the World Health Organization, suggests that air pollution represents a major and growing threat to human health. 

For the study, which was recently published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, the researchers reviewed global air quality trends between 2010 and 2016.  The research team examined those findings against a backdrop of global policies to reduce air pollution.  The researchers used ground monitoring data and satellite data to develop yearly air quality profiles for individual countries and regions. 

The scientists focused on fine particulate matter, which is a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air.  Some of the particles, like dust, soot, or smoke, are large enough to be seen by the naked eye.  Others are so small that they can only be seen using a microscope.  Inhaling fine particulate matter can cause all sorts of health issues, including asthma, respiratory inflammation, and even promote cancer. 

For much of the world’s population, the consequences of polluted air are more deadly than war, violence, and many diseases.  According to the World Health Organization, more than four million deaths every year can be attributed to outdoor air pollution.  Some of the major sources of air pollution include coal-fired power plants, agriculture, transportation, and deforestation. 

The study found that low and middle income countries experience the highest burden of air pollution around the world, with the largest concentrations found in central and southeastern Asia.

More long term policies are needed to curb this growing threat to public health. 

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Half of the world’s population exposed to increasing air pollution

Photo, posted August 2, 2019, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Side Effects Of Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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As the world struggles to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the global climate, some researchers are exploring proposals to deliberately engineer climate changes to counteract the warming trend.  One of the most widely discussed approaches is to shade the Earth from a portion of the sun’s heat by injecting the stratosphere with reflective aerosol particles.  Proponents of this idea point out that volcanoes do essentially the same thing, although generally for only a limited amount of time.  Particularly large eruptions, such as the Krakatowa eruption of 1883, wreaked havoc with weather around the world for an entire year.

Schemes to launch reflective aerosols – using planes, balloons, and even blimps – appear to be quite feasible from the standpoint of physically accomplishing them. But this says nothing about the political, ethical, and societal issues involved.  The point is that such an approach could indeed lower global temperatures and thereby potentially offset the warming effects of greenhouse gases.

A study by scientists at MIT looked at what other effects such a solar geoengineering project might have on the climate.  Their modeling concluded that it would significantly change storm tracks in the middle and high latitudes.  These tracks give rise to cyclones, hurricanes, and many more ordinary weather phenomena.

According to the study, the northern hemisphere would have weakened storm tracks, leading to less powerful winter storms, but also stagnant conditions in summer and less wind to clear away air pollution.  In the southern hemisphere, there would be more powerful storm tracks.

Aside from turning the world’s weather patterns inside out, solar geoengineering would do nothing to address the serious issue of ocean acidification caused by increasing carbon dioxide levels.

As many have pointed out, playing the geoengineering game would have many unintended consequences.

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Study: Reflecting sunlight to cool the planet will cause other global changes

Photo courtesy of MIT.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Oil Platforms And Fish | Earth Wise

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It is well-known that offshore oil platforms become major habitats for fish.  Their support structures rise hundreds of feet through the water column and basically create a prefabricated reef for marine life.   Many of these platforms will soon be decommissioned and government agencies are considering the consequences to undersea life when this happens.

Researchers at the University of California Santa Barbara have looked at how various decommissioning scenarios would affect undersea ecosystems. They found that completely removing a platform could reduce fish biomass by an average of 95%.  In contrast, removing just the top part of the rig could keep losses to around 10%.

California is looking at several possibilities for decommissioning 27 oil platforms off of its coast.  The three options are:  leave the platform in place, remove all of it, or remove just the top part of it.  Each option entails its own economic and ecological consequences.

The research team studied the size and composition of fish communities at 24 platforms and created models for each of the decommissioning scenarios.  The partial removal approach involved stripping away all structures within 26 meters of the surface.  This number would eliminate the need for a lighted buoy where the support structure remained according to U.S. Coast Guard guidelines.

For the 24 structures studied, leaving them entirely in place would support over 29,000 kilograms of fish biomass.  Removing just the top 26 meters would support nearly 28,000 kilograms.  Removing the platforms entirely would support only 500 kilograms of fish biomass.

As California weighs how to decommission its oil platforms, studies like this will be critical to making informed decisions.

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Oil Platforms’ Fishy Future

Photo, posted June 4, 2019, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Extreme Wildfire Seasons | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers at Stanford University, autumn in California feels more like summer now as a result of climate change, and this hotter and drier weather increases the risk of longer and more dangerous wildfire seasons.

The research team, whose work was recently published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that the frequency of extreme fire weather conditions in the fall in California has doubled since the early 1980s.  Average temperatures during the season have increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and rainfall has fallen by approximately 30%.  The most pronounced warming has occurred in the late summer and early fall.  That finding means that tinder-dry conditions coincide with the strong “Diablo” and “Santa Ana” winds that are typical in California at this time of year.     

In recent years, these conditions have fed large and fast-moving wildfires across California.  The state’s two largest wildfires, two most destructive wildfires, and the most deadly wildfire all occurred during 2017 and 2018, resulting in more than 150 deaths and $50 billion in damage.

Because summertime has typically been peak fire season, the recent spate of autumn fires is putting a strain on firefighting resources and funding.  The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could further strain emergency resources.  Since fire-prone regions have historically shared  wildfire-fighting resources throughout the year, the consequences of California’s extended wildfire season could have a global impact.  (For example, California’s recent autumn wildfires have coincided with the beginning of wildfires in Australia). 

The researchers highlight some opportunities to manage the intensifying wildfire risk in California, including limiting the trajectory of global warming in keeping with the targets identified in the United Nations’ Paris agreement.

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Researchers forecast longer, more extreme wildfire seasons

Photo, posted September 12, 2019, courtesy of the California National Guard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Ecological Trap For Polar Bears | Earth Wise

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Climate change has been shrinking Arctic sea ice and this is causing changes in the behavior of polar bears.   The Southern Beaufort Sea, located where the northern edges of Alaska and Canada meet, is home to one of the 19 population groups of polar bears.  Historically, the polar bears in this region remained on sea ice year-round.  But in recent decades, about a quarter of them have chosen to come on land instead of staying on the shrinking summer ice platform.

A recent study by San Diego Zoo Global, the U.S. Geological Survey, and Polar Bears International looked at the energetic consequences of the bears’ behavior.  The decision of each individual bear to stay on the ice or move to land appears to be linked to the energetic cost or benefit of the choice.

Bears who moved to land expended more energy during the summer than bears that remained on the sea ice.  In late summer, as the ice became even more restricted, a greater amount of energy was expended by bears swimming to land.  So, the immediate energy cost of moving to land is much greater than remaining on the receding pack ice.

On the other hand, bears on land in this region have access to whale carcasses in the summer while bears on the sea ice appear to be fasting.  As a result, it may be the case that the declining population of bears in this region is in part caused by the ecological trap of bears staying on the ice to avoid expending all the energy needed to move to land.  The shrinking polar ice is a real problem for polar bears.

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Energetics Study Indicates that Shrinking Sea Ice Is Creating an Ecological Trap for Polar Bears

Photo, posted October 30, 2011, courtesy of Martin Lopatka via Flickr.

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