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Why The Arctic Is Warming So Fast | Earth Wise

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The Arctic has been warming at the fastest rate of any place on Earth.  There have long been observations of amplification of Arctic warming, meaning that its temperature increases have been well above what would be expected from the global temperature rise.

Many climate models have attributed this warming to the melting of sea ice.  As the bright white ice disappears for longer periods of the year, the dark surface waters that are exposed absorb sunlight rather than reflecting it back into space the way the ice does.  This is known as the ice-albedo feedback.  But it does not entirely explain the amount of warming in the Arctic.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory that helps to explain what is going on.

In the areas of the Arctic Ocean where there is sea ice, the water is actually warmer at depth and colder near the surface.  The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic Oceans while the surface water is cooled by the ice.  The increasing temperature difference between surface and deeper water causes a greater upward flow of heat.  This was first observed in research cruises that revealed evidence that the Arctic Ocean water was becoming more turbulent over time.

According to computer modeling, this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

There are multiple ongoing studies looking at the Arctic warming trend.  Other factors that have contributed over time are the presence of chlorfluorocarbons in the atmosphere.   That contribution is waning since the use of CFCs has been phasing out over time.

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Researchers Find New Reason Why Arctic is Warming So Fast

Photo, posted April 19, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Ecological Trap For Polar Bears | Earth Wise

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Climate change has been shrinking Arctic sea ice and this is causing changes in the behavior of polar bears.   The Southern Beaufort Sea, located where the northern edges of Alaska and Canada meet, is home to one of the 19 population groups of polar bears.  Historically, the polar bears in this region remained on sea ice year-round.  But in recent decades, about a quarter of them have chosen to come on land instead of staying on the shrinking summer ice platform.

A recent study by San Diego Zoo Global, the U.S. Geological Survey, and Polar Bears International looked at the energetic consequences of the bears’ behavior.  The decision of each individual bear to stay on the ice or move to land appears to be linked to the energetic cost or benefit of the choice.

Bears who moved to land expended more energy during the summer than bears that remained on the sea ice.  In late summer, as the ice became even more restricted, a greater amount of energy was expended by bears swimming to land.  So, the immediate energy cost of moving to land is much greater than remaining on the receding pack ice.

On the other hand, bears on land in this region have access to whale carcasses in the summer while bears on the sea ice appear to be fasting.  As a result, it may be the case that the declining population of bears in this region is in part caused by the ecological trap of bears staying on the ice to avoid expending all the energy needed to move to land.  The shrinking polar ice is a real problem for polar bears.

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Energetics Study Indicates that Shrinking Sea Ice Is Creating an Ecological Trap for Polar Bears

Photo, posted October 30, 2011, courtesy of Martin Lopatka via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Melting Permafrost | Earth Wise

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The Arctic is warming faster than any region on Earth and mostly we’ve been hearing about the rapid disappearance of Arctic sea ice.  But the land in the Arctic is also undergoing major changes, especially to the permafrost that has been there for millennia.

Permafrost occurs in areas where the temperature of the ground remains below freezing for two years or more.  About a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere’s landscape meets this criterion.  Most of the world’s permafrost is found in northern Russia, Canada, Alaska, Iceland, and Scandinavia.

Permafrost regions previously carpeted in cranberries, blueberries, shrubs, sedges, and lichen are now being transformed into nothing but mud, silt, and peat.  So-called regressive thaw slumps – essentially landslides – are creating large craters in the landscape.  (The Batagaika Crater in the Yana River Basin of Siberia is a kilometer long and 100 meters deep).

Apart from the violence being done to the Arctic landscape, the greatest concern is that the permafrost has locked in huge stores of greenhouse gases, including methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide.  It is estimated that the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as is currently contained in the atmosphere.  As the permafrost thaws, these gases will be released.  With them will be pathogens from bygone millennia whose impact cannot be predicted.  Climatologists estimate that 40% of the permafrost could be gone by the end of the century.

As the permafrost thaws, the region’s ecosystems are changing, making it increasingly difficult for subsistence indigenous people and Arctic animals to find food.  Landslides are causing stream flows to change, lakes to suddenly drain, seashores to collapse, and water chemistry to be altered.

The warming Arctic is about much more than disappearing sea ice.

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How Thawing Permafrost Is Beginning to Transform the Arctic

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

What’s On Nature’s Calendar? | Earth Wise

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The Inuit Calendar is based on six seasons defined by weather, ice, animal migration, daylight hours and the night sky.  All these variables are in flux according to Harvard Narwhal Biologist Dr. Martin Nweeia.  Last August in the high Canadian Arctic, at 72 degrees north latitude, temperatures were at an astounding 70 degrees during the day. In 2018, the same region at the same time of year, experienced one of the coldest August months in 15 years.  

Disappearing sea ice in Hudson Bay affects migration patterns of ice-dependent species like narwhal and beluga whales and now allows more shipping traffic which produces more marine noise pollution and the risk of an oil spill. As a natural resource, the Arctic has significant deposits of iron ore, gold, diamonds, phosphate, and bauxite, so cargo shipments are increasing yearly.  

The disappearance of caribou herds and altered migrations of other animals have also blurred the seasonal changes. Caribou numbers have decreased by more than half in the last two decades.  Narwhal populations are remaining steady but are experiencing migration shifts resulting in their appearance at new locations and their absence from traditional areas.  Even the timing of the migration has changed, shifting two weeks later from normal late summer – early fall patterns.  

The night sky, which has long had identifiable reference points for Inuit observers, is also changing causing speculation about changes in the magnetic field and a polar shift or flipping of the poles. The earth’s magnetic north has been shifting toward Siberia at an alarming 30 miles each year since 2015.  Every million years, it is estimated that the poles flip three times.  No one knows if or when it will happen again. That’s a calendar with some unexpected dates. 

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–Earth Wise acknowledges script contribution from Dr. Martin Nweeia of Harvard University.

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Migratory Tundra Caribou and Wild Reindeer

Earth’s magnetic field is acting up and geologists don’t know why

Photo, posted June 27, 2014, courtesy of the Bureau of Land Management via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cooling The Earth With A Warmer Arctic | Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Researchers are considering a wide range of approaches to mitigate the effects of global climate change.  Among these are various strategies of geoengineering, which must be viewed with enormous caution, given the high likelihood of unintended consequences from almost anything we might do.

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis have investigated potential strategies for cooling the planet in the absence of Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic region is heating up faster than any other place on earth and its sea ice is rapidly disappearing.  Estimates are that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will be largely gone within a generation.  Arctic ice and snow reflect the sun’s energy into space, which helps to keep the planet cool.  What happens if that ice is gone?

The researchers explored the fact that the Arctic Ocean ice actually insulates the Arctic atmosphere from the warmer water under the ice.  Without the ice layer, the surface water would actually increase air temperatures by 20 degrees C during the winter.  That in turn would increase the heat irradiated into space and thereby cool down the planet.

The Arctic sea ice is in part maintained because the upper regions of the Arctic Ocean have lower salinity than the Atlantic Ocean.  This stops Atlantic water from flowing above the cold Arctic waters.  So, if we were to somehow deliberately increase the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface water, warmer, less salty Atlantic Ocean water would flow in, increase the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere, and release heat trapped in the ocean into space.

It all sounds pretty crazy, but the researchers say that given the seriousness of climate change, all options should be considered when dealing with it.

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Could we cool the Earth with an ice-free Arctic?

Photo, posted August 19, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another Hot November

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This past fall saw yet more of the high temperatures the world has been experiencing in recent times.  Both the season (September through November) and the year to date were the second hottest in recorded history.  November itself was the second-hottest November in the 140-year global climate record.

The high temperatures were felt at both ends of the world.  Sea ice coverage across both the Arctic and Antarctic oceans fell to near-record lows in November.  Arctic sea ice coverage was nearly 13% below the 1981-2010 average, while Antarctic coverage was 6.35% below average.

The average global land and ocean surface temperature for November was 1.66 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.  The year-to-date global temperature was 1.69 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.  These numbers correspond to almost a 1-degree Celsius increase, which should be compared with the Paris Climate Accord goal of keeping that increase to no more than 1.5 degrees.

November was the hottest November on record for South America, Africa, and the Hawaiian Islands.  The Caribbean had its second-hottest November, and Europe had its seventh hottest on record.

The world’s average sea surface temperature ranked second warmest for the year to date and was only 0.05 degrees cooler than the all-time record.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues monthly global climate reports and for quite some time, these reports seem to all be the same.  Another new record for heat or at least another near record.  We have to expect that this trend will continue at least until the world starts making progress in dealing with its root cause.

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November 2019 was 2nd hottest on record for the planet

Photo, posted July 20, 2016, courtesy of Salehin Chowdhury via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The March Of The Penguins Toward Extinction

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According to a new study from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the warming climate may render emperor penguins extinct by the end of this century.  The study, which was part of an international collaboration between scientists, finds that emperor penguins will likely experience an 86% decline by 2100 if the global climate continues to warm at the current rate.  At that point, it would be very unlikely for them to recover, according to the study’s lead author.       

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and recently published in the journal Global Change Biology.

The fate of emperor penguins is largely tied to the fate of sea ice.  The penguins use sea ice as a place for breeding, feeding, and molting.  They look for very specific conditions of sea ice – it must be locked in to the Antarctic shoreline but also close enough to open seawater to give them access to food. The study predicts that this sea ice will gradually disappear, depriving the birds of their habitat, food sources, and ability to raise their young.     

The researchers combined two existing computer models to study three different climate change scenarios.  If the average global temperature increases by only 1.5 degrees Celsius, the study found that only 5% of sea ice would be lost by 2100, resulting in a 19% drop in penguin colonies.  If the planet warms by 2 degrees Celsius, the sea ice loss nearly triples and more than a third of penguin colonies disappear.  The ‘business as usual’ scenario where the planet continues to warm at the current rate will ensure a near complete loss of emperor penguin colonies by 2100. 

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Unless warming is slowed, emperor penguins will be marching towards extinction

Photo, posted January 15, 2011, courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The ‘Biggest Ever’ Arctic Expedition

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The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth.  In fact, it’s warming at a rate of almost twice the global average.  And, since what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic, the world is already feeling the effects: rising sea levels, changes in climate and precipitation patterns, increasing severe weather events, and so on. 

As a result, researchers from more than a dozen countries have launched the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the Arctic.  They plan to freeze Germany’s largest research vessel, the Polarstern, into Arctic sea ice, where it will remain trapped for twelve months.  The ship will drift with the sea ice as the sea ice drifts.  The vessel will serve as a research laboratory, hosting a rotating crew of 300 scientists.  The ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and even the wildlife will all be sampled.  This year-long journey will give researchers their closest look at how the polar climate and its fragile ecosystems are changing. 

Led by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate project (or MOSAiC) is expected to cost about $150 million. 

One major goal of MOSAiC is to improve strikingly uncertain climate projections for the Arctic.  Climate models disagree on how much more the Arctic will warm as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises and sea ice shrinks.  Some project a 5ºC rise by 2100 relative to the 1986-2005 average.  Others predict a 10ºC increase. 

Understanding the complex processes occurring in the Arctic is essential for projecting the future impacts of climate change. 

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Climate scientists prepare for largest ever Arctic expedition

Climate change: Polarstern leaves for ‘biggest ever’ Arctic expedition

Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Harsh Winters

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In recent years, there have been some unusually harsh winters in North America and Central Europe. This past January, the Midwestern US experienced extreme cold temperatures. We have all become familiar with the term ‘polar vortex’ and its role in sending cold air to middle latitudes and it is generally agreed that unusual behavior by the jet stream is the primary cause of the extreme winter weather.

For years, climate researchers around the world have been investigating the question as to whether the increasingly common wandering of the jet stream is a product of climate change or is a random phenomenon associated with natural variations in the climate system.

The jet stream is a powerful band of westerly winds over the middle latitudes that push major weather systems from west to east.  These days, the jet stream is increasingly faltering.  Instead of blowing along a straight course parallel to the equator, it sweeps across the Northern Hemisphere in massive waves, producing unusual intrusions of Arctic air into the middle latitudes.

Atmospheric researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany have now developed a climate model that can accurately predict the frequently observed winding course of the jet stream.  The breakthrough combines their global climate model with a new machine learning algorithm on ozone chemistry.  Using their new combined model, they can now show that the jet stream’s wavelike course in winter and subsequent extreme weather outbreaks are the direct result of climate change.  The changes in the jet stream are to a great extent caused by the decline in Arctic sea ice, according to the results of the investigations.  The results are not surprising but there is now a detailed model to support the hypothesis.

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A warming Arctic produces weather extremes in our latitudes

Photo, posted January 11, 2011, courtesy of Carl Wycoff via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Rapid Antarctic Melting

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The Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica is the world’s largest ice shelf, covering an area roughly the size of France.  Scientists have spent several years building up a record of how the northwest sector of the enormous ice shelf interacts with the ocean beneath it.  Their results show that the ice is melting much more rapidly than previously thought because of in-flowing warm water.

In general, the stability of ice shelves is thought to be mostly influenced by their exposure to warm deep ocean water.  But the new research has found that surface water heated by the sun also plays a crucial role in melting ice shelves.

The interactions between ice and ocean water that occur hundreds of meters below the surface of ice shelves have a direct impact on long-term sea level.  The Ross Ice Shelf stabilizes the West Antarctic ice sheet by blocking the ice that flows into it from some of the world’s largest glaciers.

When ice shelves collapse, the glaciers that feed them can speed up by a factor of two or three.  None of the collapsing shelves in the past have come anywhere close to the size of the Ross Ice Shelf, which is more than 100 times bigger.

The new study by New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research showed that sun-heated surface water flowing into the cavity under the ice shelf near Ross Islands caused melt rates to nearly triple during the summer months.  This indicates that the loss of sea ice resulting from climate change is likely to increase melt rates in the future.  While the Ross Ice Shelf is still considered to be relatively stable, the new findings show that it may be more vulnerable than previously thought.

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Rapid melting of the world’s largest ice shelf linked to solar heat in the ocean

Photo, posted February 15, 2009, courtesy of Alan Light via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bad News For Penguins

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The second-largest breeding colony of emperor penguins in Antarctica, located in the Waddell Sea, has experienced “catastrophic breeding failure” for the past three years.  Nearly all of the colony’s chicks have failed to survive due to the breakup of sea ice, according to a new study published in the journal Antarctic Science.

The colony was once home to 14,000 to 25,000 breeding pairs, which represents as much as 9% of the global emperor penguin population.  Emperor penguins are the tallest and heaviest of all living penguins, reaching up to 4 feet in height and weighing between 50 and 100 pounds.  They are the only penguin species that breeds during the Antarctic winter and their lengthy treks to breeding colonies have been the subject of numerous films and television shows.

Sea ice at Halley Bay in Antarctica had been stable and reliable for nearly 60 years but stormy weather in 2016 driven by El Nino conditions, strong winds, and record low ice extent caused the ice on which penguin chicks gather to break up.  This happened again in 2017 and 2018.  By last year, just a few hundred adult pairs were present at the breeding site and almost no chicks survived the ice breakup.

Researchers say that they have never seen a breeding failure on a scale like this in 60 years of studying the colonies.  On a more positive note, while the population of the Halley Bay site has collapsed, the Dawson-Lambton breeding area – located about 34 miles away – has actually seen significant growth over the past four years.  While this is encouraging, the growth at Dawson-Lambton does not fully compensate for the losses at Halley Bay, which was once considered relatively safe from the impacts of climate change.

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Emperor Penguin Colony Experiences “Catastrophic Breeding Failure”

Photo, posted February 22, 2011, courtesy of Krishna via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Reducing Polar Bear Attacks

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The increasing reduction of sea ice in the Arctic is changing the behavior of polar bears.  Because they are spending more time on land, they are interacting with people much more frequently, occasionally with deadly results.

A study, published in 2017, looked at 144 years’ worth of polar bear attacks on humans in the Arctic.  Between 1960 and 2009, there were a reported 47 attacks by polar bears on people – between 7 and 12 per decade.  Between 2010 and 2014, as sea ice reached record lows, there were 15 attacks, a record for a four-year period.  Since 2000, 88% of attacks have occurred between July and December, when sea ice is at its lowest level of the year.

Last July, a young male polar bear attacked and killed a man who was berry picking with his children.  A month later, a mother polar bear attacked and killed an Inuit hunter and injured two others.  This was the first known fatal attack by a mother polar bear.

As a result, Inuit communities in the Nunavut region are asking for higher legal polar bear harvest quotas, arguing that bear populations have increased to a dangerous level.

These recent human fatalities have also provided an impetus for developing new non-lethal conflict-resolution tools than can be used in northern communities before more people as well as bears are killed.

There are now polar bear patrol teams tasked with driving bears away from settlements.  There is a bear hotline and electric fencing around sled dog compounds.

The changing face of the Arctic is creating growing stress on the polar bear population and on the people who make their home in that region.

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As Polar Bear Attacks Increase in Warming Arctic, a Search for Solutions

Photo, posted September 28, 2015, courtesy of Anita Ritenour via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cold Weather In A Warming Climate

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The climate is warming.  The average global temperature is going up year after year, bringing about significant changes to weather around the world.  But the fact is that these changes don’t always lead to warmer weather.  And ordinary variations in local weather can also go in either direction.

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Cold And Snow From Global Warming

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The Arctic has been experiencing record warm temperatures and record low sea ice levels.  During February, there were nine days in a row with temperatures averaging 27 degrees above normal and often above freezing.  Over the previous 20 years, there were only two previous readings above freezing in February – once in 2011 and once last year.

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Polar Bears Are Struggling To Find Food

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Climate change continues to pose a major threat to polar bear survival.  Polar bears, whose native range largely lies within the Arctic Circle, depend on sea ice for nearly all of their life cycle functions.  And rising global temperatures are causing that sea ice to disappear. 

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