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Empire Wind resumes

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In April, the Trump Administration issued a stop order for the Empire Wind offshore wind project in New York, pushing the $5 billion project to the brink of collapse.  The project is being built by the giant Norwegian energy company Equinor.  When completed, the wind farm is expected to deliver enough electricity to power 500,000 New York homes.

Equinor had obtained all the necessary permits for the project after a four-year federal environmental review and work had begun on laying foundations for the wind turbines on the ocean floor. 

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum claimed that the permits for the project been rushed and ordered the work stopped.  The stoppage was costing Equinor $50 million a week as well as jeopardizing an additional 1,000 jobs. 

Weeks of intensive interactions between New York Governor Kathy Hochul, Equinor officials, and the White House finally resulted in a decision by the administration to lift the stop work order and allow the project to move forward. 

The collapse of the project would have created major problems for New York.  The state’s grid operators have been counting on the construction of several new offshore wind farms to provide large additional amounts of electricity without producing greenhouse gas emissions.  New York has aggressive targets for using renewable energy.

Empire Wind is expected to have 816 megawatts of capacity.  Another offshore project in New York, Sunrise Wind, which is under construction 30 miles east of Montauk Point on Long Island, would have 924 megawatts of capacity.

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In Reversal, Trump Officials Will Allow Huge Offshore N.Y. Wind Farm to Proceed

Photo, posted August 9, 2022, courtesy of the Scottish Government via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Thawing permafrost in the Arctic

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Permafrost covers about a quarter of the landmass in the Northern Hemisphere.  It stores vast quantities of organic carbon in the form of dead plant matter.  As long as it stays frozen, it is no threat to the climate.  But as permafrost thaws, microorganisms start breaking down that plant matter and large amounts of carbon are released into the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide and methane.

Scientists estimate that there could be two and a half times as much carbon trapped in Arctic permafrost as there is in the atmosphere today.

Thawing permafrost poses various risks to the Arctic environment and the livelihoods of its people.  According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Vienna in Austria, Umeå University in Sweden, and the Technical University of Denmark, thawing permafrost threatens the way of life of up to three million people.

To identify these risks, the research team studied four Arctic regions in Norway, Greenland, Canada, and Russia between 2017 and 2023.  The research, which was recently published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, identified five key hazards posed by the thawing permafrost: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supply, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants.

These are present developments – not future dangers.  Global scientific cooperation, policy interventions, and investment in research are critical to mitigate the impact of thawing permafrost and address the broader consequences it brings.

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A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw

Thawing permafrost threatens up to three million people in Arctic regions

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of Benjamin Jones / USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Drying rivers and hydropower

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A decade ago, Ecuador began a major transition to using hydroelectric power.  Like in many other South American countries, the presence of abundant rivers could supply large amounts of energy and drive economic expansion and lead to a new era of prosperity.

This ambitious plan has run into the impacts of climate change.  An extraordinary drought has engulfed much of South America, drying rivers and reservoirs, and has put Ecuador’s power grid on the brink of collapse. 

Since September, daily energy cuts in Ecuador have lasted as long as 14 hours.  An industry group says that the nation is losing $12 million in productivity and sales for every hour the power is out.  Just a few years ago, Ecuador was making great strides in reducing poverty.  Now, as the energy crisis has increased its grip on the country, much of what was achieved is being lost.

Ecuador’s situation is not unique.  In recent years, abnormally dry weather in multiple places has resulted in extreme low water levels in rivers, reducing hydropower resources in Norway, Canada, Turkey, and even rainforest-rich Costa Rica.

Overall, more than one billion people live in countries where more than half of their energy comes from hydroelectric plants.  With a warming climate and increasing incidence of extreme weather events like drought, it is likely that hydropower will become a less reliable energy source.  More than a quarter of all hydroelectric dams are in places with a medium to high risk of water scarcity by 2050. 

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The Rivers Run Dry and the Lights Go Out: A Warming Nation’s Doom Loop

Photo, posted January 15, 2020, courtesy of Pedro Szekely via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Reducing emissions from cement

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Cement production accounts for about 7% of global carbon emissions.  It is one of the most difficult challenges for emissions reduction.  The emissions associated with producing cement come from both the energy used to provide heat for the process and from the chemical reactions that take place in the formation of cement.  Cement is an essential building block of society, and its use is not expected to decline over time.

A German company called Heidelberg Materials is embarking on an ambitious project to reduce carbon emissions from a cement plant in Norway.  They are building a facility to use absorbent chemicals to capture large quantities of carbon dioxide emitted through cement production.  More than half a ton of carbon dioxide arises from every ton of cement produced at the plant.

Once the carbon dioxide is captured it will be chilled to a liquid, loaded onto ships, and carried to a terminal farther up the Norwegian coast.  From there, it will be pumped into undersea rocks located 70 miles offshore and a mile and a half below the bottom of the North Sea.

With all of this complicated process going on, cement from the plant is likely to be quite expensive.  It might even be two or three times the price of ordinary cement.  Heidelberg Materials is counting on customers’ willingness to pay much more for cement that comes with green credentials. 

Can this be economically viable?  Heidelberg estimates that cement accounts for only about 2% of the cost of a large building project but as much as 50% of the emissions.  As a result, using carbon-free cement could be a relatively inexpensive way for builders to reduce emissions.

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Cement Is a Big Polluter. A Plant in Norway Hopes to Clean It Up.

Photo, posted May 7, 2016, courtesy of Phillip Pessar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Weather extremes for most people

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Scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway along with researchers at the University of Reading in the UK have analyzed how global warming can combine with normal variations in the weather to produce decades-long periods of very rapid changes involving both extreme temperatures and extreme amounts of rainfall.

Many parts of the world have already been experiencing record temperatures and extreme rainfall events.  Previously, most analyses of the changing climate have focused on the global mean and not on the impact of extreme weather on specific countries.

The study made use of large climate model simulations to show that if global emissions continue on the path they have been on, large parts of the tropics and subtropics – which are home to 70% of the world’s population – are expected to experience strong rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years.  But even if there is strong emissions mitigation – meaning that emissions are reduced enough to reach the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement – the expectation is that 20% of the world’s population will face extreme weather risks. 

These extreme events currently account for a disproportionate share of the realized impacts of climate change.  Heatwaves cause heat stress and excess mortality of both people and livestock.  Extreme precipitation leads to flooding, damage to settlements, infrastructure, crops, and ecosystems, as well as to reduced water quality. 

Society will be increasingly vulnerable to these extreme events, especially when multiple hazards occur at the same time.

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Extreme weather to strengthen rapidly over next two decades

Photo, posted May 20, 2024, courtesy of Dale Cruse via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric cars: Boom or bust?

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Media coverage of electric cars in this country is pretty confusing.  Are electric cars taking over or has the EV bubble burst?

EVs currently represent about 8% of the US new car market.  But they continue to face some relatively unique headwinds in this country.  A very powerful and influential oil industry makes sure that anti-EV stories occupy center stage in the media.  Traditional car dealers don’t want to sell EVs because they don’t make much money from parts and service.  And EVs often find themselves tangled up in American politics.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world tells a very different story.  Globally, EVs constitute 20% of new car sales, but in some places, they are doing much better than that.

So far this year, almost 87% of new car sales in Norway are electric and in August, the figure was 94%.  Norway has some incentives in place for EV owners, but the fact that nearly all new cars on the road are electric is far more than the result of incentives.

One might argue that Norway, a country with only 5 million people, faces a much easier task of transitioning to EVs.   But how about China with its 1.4 billion people?  In July, plug-in vehicles in China were 51% of new auto sales.  And the numbers continue to rise.

There are plenty of articles out there explaining why electric cars just can’t meet people’s needs, have insurmountable problems, and how having too many of them would collapse electric grids and otherwise wreak havoc with society.  Apparently, the Norwegians and Chinese, among a growing number of other countries, haven’t gotten the memo.

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Elbil Thinks Electric Car Sales In Norway Could Hit 100% By Next Year

Photo, posted July 27, 2024, courtesy of Amaury Laporte via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Making wind turbines safer for birds

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There are people who oppose the installation of wind turbines for a variety of reasons. It is true that wind turbines can be dangerous to birds.  Estimates are that about 250,000 birds are killed flying into wind turbines each year in the U.S.  

However, this data needs to be looked at in comparison to bird deaths from flying into electrical lines (25 million), vehicles (214 million), and building glass (at least 600 million). And even these figures pale in comparison to the more than 2 billion birds killed by domestic cats each year.

Despite these facts, it would still be great if fewer birds died from flying into wind turbines.  Researchers at Oregon State University are part of a team looking at reducing bird collision risks from wind turbines by painting a single blade of the turbine black.

Recent research in Norway found that painting a single turbine blade black reduced the number of bird collisions by nearly 72%.  Why should this work?  The hypothesis is that the black-painted blades disrupt the visual uniformity of the airspace around the turbines and makes them more noticeable to birds, which prompts avoidance behavior.

The Norwegian data is based on a relatively small sample size and the Oregon State researchers as well as others in Spain, Sweden, and South Africa are working on more rigorous and comprehensive studies.

The hope is that this rather simple strategy could make windfarms safer for birds.  Unfortunately, this approach is not likely to be very effective with bats, which rely more on auditory cues rather than visual cues.

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Scientists studying impact of painting wind turbine blade black to reduce bird collisions

Photo, posted May 21, 2024, courtesy of Roy Harryman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Svalbard is melting

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Svalbard is a Norwegian archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole. It is one of the world’s northernmost inhabited areas and is a popular attraction for tourists.  Svalbard is famous for rugged, remote terrain of glaciers and frozen tundra sheltering polar bears, Svalbard reindeer, and Arctic foxes. The Northern Lights are visible during winter, and its summer features the “midnight sun”—sunlight 24 hours a day.  It is the home of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, which provides safe, free, and long-term storage of seed duplicates from all gene banks and nations around the world. 

Over half of Svalbard’s land area is covered with ice and accounts for about 6% of the planet’s glaciated area outside of Greenland and Antarctica.  But Svalbard is also one of the fastest-warming places on Earth.

It has suffered extreme episodes of melting this summer, brought on by exceptionally high air temperatures.  In late July and early August, temperatures hovered around 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this part of the Arctic Circle, causing snow and ice to rapidly melt.

According to scientists, Svalbard’s ice caps broke their all-time record for daily surface melt on July 23rd, shedding nearly half a foot of water equivalent that day, a rate five times larger than normal. 

On August 11th, the high temperature in Longyearbyen, Svalbard’s capital city, reached 68 degrees, the highest August temperature on record and 4 degrees above the previous monthly record.  Svalbard experienced its warmest summer on record in 2023.

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Svalbard Melts

Photo, posted September 21, 2016, courtesy of Christopher Michel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Who’s driving electric?

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Electric cars are growing in popularity around the world and are expected to represent 20% of new car sales this year.  In some places, they have a much bigger share:  38% in China and a whopping 82% in Norway.  Here in the U.S., things are more complicated.

Last year, EVs represented 8.5% of U.S. new car sales while hybrids accounted for an additional 10%.  But enthusiasm for plug-in vehicles was by no means universal or consistent across the country or across various segments of the population.

Overall, the West Coast, and especially California, dominated the electric vehicle market.  Electric vehicles accounted for more than 30% of new car sales in the San Francisco Bay Area.  In Los Angeles, the number was close to 25%.

A number of metro areas elsewhere also had strong EV sales, including Denver, Las Vegas, Washington DC, Austin, and Phoenix.  New York City had almost 10% EV registrations. 

Americans buying electric cars so far tend to be richer, younger, and more likely to live in urban areas than the average person and are often motivated by environmental concerns.  Meanwhile, about half of American adults say they are not likely to consider purchasing an EV as their next car and that figure rises to 70% for Republicans.

Lack of interest in EVs is often based on concerns about the availability of sufficient charging options or high EV prices, although those are dropping.  There is also concern about EV efficiency in colder climates, although the Norwegians clearly don’t find it to be a problem.

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Electric Vehicles

Photo, posted October 18, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Positive tipping points and climate

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We often hear about tipping points and climate change.  Tipping points are critical thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating, and often irreversible changes.  Some of the ones of concern with the climate are thawing permafrost, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and global temperatures reaching certain levels.  These are all tipping points that are essential to avoid.

A study published in the journal One Earth by researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK contends that in order to avoid the severe consequences of climate change, we need to trigger some positive tipping points.

Many climate-friendly changes are happening too slowly.  Triggering positive tipping points is a way to rapidly reach the high levels of decarbonization required to avoid triggering the negative tipping points of great concern.

Reaching a positive tipping point is a way that beneficial changes can rapidly gain momentum.  One example is the adoption of electric vehicles.  It has clearly reached a tipping point across Scandinavia and has happened rapidly.  Norway has managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to nearly 90% in less than 10 years.  At some point, everybody wanted an electric car.  This is evidence that positive tipping points can happen.

Many of the other forms of decarbonization need to move from their current level of adoption to rapid expansion.  A combination of affordability, attractiveness, availability, and political will are needed to trigger tipping points.  Exactly what those tipping point are is not necessarily known, but unless something accelerates the current pace of change, it will be very difficult to prevent negative climate tipping points from changing the world in destructive ways.

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Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis

Photo, posted July 8, 2023, courtesy of Michael Swan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global Aquaculture And Environmental Change | Earth Wise

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Blue foods are fish, invertebrates, algae, and aquatic plants that are captured or cultured in freshwater and marine ecosystems.  They include approximately 2,200 species of fish, shellfish, plants and algae as well as more than 500 species farmed in freshwater.  Blue foods play a central role in food and nutrition security for billions of people, and are a cornerstone of the livelihoods, economies, and cultures of many communities around the world.

But many of the world’s largest aquatic food producers are highly vulnerable to human-induced environmental change.  According to a new paper recently published in the journal Nature Sustainability, more than 90% of global blue food production is at risk from environmental changes, with top producers like the United States, Norway, and China facing the biggest threat.  Alarmingly, the research also found that some of the highest-risk countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa demonstrate the lowest capacity for adaptation. 

The paper is the first-ever global analysis of environmental stressors impacting the production quantity and safety of blue foods. A total of 17 anthropogenic stressors were surveyed, including rising seas and temperatures, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall, algal blooms, pollution, and pesticides. 

The research is one of seven scientific papers published by the Blue Food Assessment as part of a global effort to inform future aquatic food sustainability. 

The report calls for more transboundary collaboration and for a diversification of blue food production in high-risk countries to cope with the impact of environmental change. 

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Vulnerability of blue foods to human-induced environmental change

New research finds that more than 90% of global aquaculture faces substantial risk from environmental change

Photo, posted December 30, 2014, courtesy of NOAA’s National Ocean Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Shrinking Glaciers And Methane | Earth Wise

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The Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the planet.  In fact, according to a study published last year in the journal Nature, the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe during the last 43 years.  This rapid warming is leading to substantial reductions in sea ice, thawing of permafrost, shifts in wildlife populations, and changes in ocean circulation patterns, among other changes. 

According to new research recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shrinking glaciers in the warming Arctic are exposing bubbling groundwater springs, which could provide an underestimated source of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.  Methane is more than 25 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.

The study, which was led by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, found large sources of methane gas leaking from groundwater springs unveiled by melting glaciers. 

As glaciers retreat in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard and leave behind newly exposed land, groundwater beneath the Earth seeps upward and forms springs. In 122 out of the 123 springs studied, the research team found that the water was highly concentrated with dissolved methane.  When the spring water reaches the surface, the excess methane can escape to the atmosphere. 

Researchers are concerned that additional methane emissions released by the Arctic thaw could dramatically increase human-induced global warming.  If this phenomenon in the Svalbard archipelago is found to be more widespread across the Arctic — where temperatures are quickly rising and glaciers melting — the methane emissions could have global implications. 

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The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Shrinking Arctic glaciers are unearthing a new source of methane

Photo, posted October 22, 2022, courtesy of David Stanley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars In Norway | Earth Wise

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We are at a relatively early stage of the electric car revolution.  EV sales are increasing rapidly, but they still comprise only a small fraction of the cars on American roads.  So, there is still lots of speculation and argument about how things will actually work when a large fraction of cars are electric.  But there is at least one place where one doesn’t have to speculate:  Norway.

Last year, 80% of new-car sales in Norway were EVs.  That country is essentially an observatory for figuring out what the electrification of vehicles will mean for the environment, workers, and life in general.  In fact, sales of internal combustion cars in Norway will end in 2025.

Based on Norway’s experience, electric vehicles bring benefits and none of the dire consequences that some critics predict.  The transition isn’t problem-free.  There have been unreliable chargers and long waits during periods of high demand.  Auto dealers and retailers have had to adapt to the changes in their businesses.  The pecking order of car brands has changed dramatically making Tesla the best-selling brand and marginalizing long-established carmakers like Renault and Fiat.

But in the bigger picture, the air in Oslo, the capital of Norway, is measurably cleaner.  The city is quieter as noisy gasoline and diesel vehicles gradually disappear.  Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 30% since 2009.  Meanwhile, there hasn’t been mass unemployment among gas station workers, and the electrical grid has not collapsed.

Norway is perhaps 10 years ahead of us with respect to electric cars.  There are still problems to solve, and difficulties to overcome, but so far, it looks like it will all turn out well.

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In Norway, the Electric Vehicle Future Has Already Arrived

Photo, posted October 15, 2018, courtesy of Mario Duran-Ortiz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Carbon Capture: Solution Or Band-Aid? | Earth Wise

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The idea of capturing the CO2 emissions from industry and locking them up is nothing new.  It’s been going on for decades in some places.  Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor has been holing away a million tons of CO2 a year for a long time.  But overall, CCS – carbon capture and storage – has had very limited use.  As of last year, there were only about 30 large-scale projects in operation around the world, capturing only 0.1% of global emissions.

There is now growing interest in CCS and many new projects are underway.  A combination of rising carbon prices in Europe, tax breaks for CCS in the US, national net-zero targets, and the increasing need to ramp down global emissions are all driving rising CCS activities. 

While recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change still claim that it is possible to remain below 2 degrees Celsius of warming without using carbon capture, there is growing belief that it may be necessary given the present pace of the transition away from fossil fuels.

Two industries that together produce about 14% of global CO2 emissions are cement and steel.  These are both industries for which it is difficult to eliminate emissions regardless of the energy sources used. CCS may be the best approach to reducing their emissions.

But there is considerable pushback against CCS.  The concern is that CCS is primarily a way to delay decarbonization.  It encourages various industries to continue to use fossil fuels instead of shifting away from them.  Nonetheless, CCS no doubt has its place as part of the solution to climate change.

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Solution or Band-Aid? Carbon Capture Projects Are Moving Ahead

Photo, posted June 5, 2022, courtesy of Mark Dixon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Floating Homes In The Netherlands | Earth Wise

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The Netherlands is a country that is largely built on reclaimed land and a third of it remains below sea level.  The Dutch have long experience with dealing with rising waters.  The city of Amsterdam has almost 3,000 houseboats in its canals.

As sea levels continue to rise across the globe, it is no surprise that the Dutch have taken the lead in creating communities composed of floating houses and buildings.

A floating house is a structure fixed to the shore, often resting on steel poles, and usually connected to the local sewer system and power grid.  They are much like ordinary houses except that instead of a basement, they have a concrete hull that acts as a counterweight, allowing them to remain stable in the water.

The ones in the Netherlands are often prefabricated, square-shaped, three-story townhouses.  Rotterdam, which is 90% below sea level, is home to the world’s largest floating office building as well as a floating farm.

Floating buildings have their challenges, not the least of which are the effects of severe wind and rainstorms, or even the passing of large ships which can make the buildings rock.  Infrastructure like electricity and sewer service is not that simple to implement for the buildings.  But the benefits of floating buildings may outweigh the costs.

For cities facing worsening floods and a shortage of buildable land, floating homes are a potential solution for expanding urban housing in the age of climate change.  Dutch engineers are spearheading floating building projects in Britain, France, and Norway, as well as in threatened island locations like French Polynesia and the Maldives.

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Embracing a Wetter Future, the Dutch Turn to Floating Homes

Photo, posted May 23, 2007, courtesy of Jeff Hutchison via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Batteries On Wheels | Earth Wise

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Transportation accounts for nearly a quarter of the direct carbon dioxide emissions coming from burning fuel.  As a result, electrification of transport is one of the major ways we can reduce emissions.  Increasing the number of electric vehicles over time is essential for meeting emissions targets.

But electric vehicles have the potential to do more than deliver emissions reduction; they can also provide other energy services.

More and more electric cars provide over 200 miles of driving range, but most cars are actually driven no more than 30 miles a day.  As a result, the fleet of electric cars represents a huge bank of energy stored in battery packs and mostly sitting around unused.  This presents an opportunity to leverage this resource.

Car battery packs could be used to absorb excess renewable energy generated in the middle of the day (for example from solar installations) or at night (from wind farms) and potentially then to export stored energy to power homes and support the grid.  This energy system is known as V2G, or vehicle-to-grid technology.

The University of Queensland in Australia has launched a unique international trial to see if the spare battery capacity in vehicles could be used for these purposes.  The university has partnered with Teslascope, which is an online analytics platform used by Tesla owners to track the performance of their cars.  Tesla owners wishing to be part of the study authorize the collection of their data and, in turn, receive a free 12-month subscription to the Teslascope service.  The study will collect data from Tesla owners in Australia, the US, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Germany, and the UK.

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Can EV spare battery capacity support the grid?

Photo, posted February 8, 2009, courtesy of City of St Pete via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected | Earth Wise

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It is widely believed that electrification is the future for vehicles.  The only question is how long the transition will take.  Predictions are all over the map, but the recent trend is to revise those predictions to say it will happen sooner than previously thought.

A recent report from the international accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that EV sales in the US, China, and Europe will surpass those of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles five years sooner than previously expected.  The report forecasts that fossil-fueled vehicles will represent less than 1% of global sales by 2045, taking their place among other historical but essentially abandoned technologies.

Europe is expected to be the leader in EV adoption.  The forecast is that EVs will surpass legacy vehicles by 2028.  China is expected to follow by 2033.  The US is lagging behind, but even here, electrics are expected to achieve a majority of car sales by 2036.

Plug-in vehicle sales have surpassed a 10% market share in California and Tesla now has a 1.7% share of the total US car market.  Norway is the global EV leader with 3 out of 4 car buyers choosing electrics.  In that country, Tesla’s Model 3 is the top-selling vehicle of any kind.  In Switzerland, 40% of car sales are EVs or hybrids.

There are many variables that will affect the timetable for the EV transition.  Among them are the timetable for widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology, the effects of policy initiatives by governments around the world, the development of charging infrastructure, and the evolution of electricity generation and energy storage.

In any case, looking at the product roadmap for virtually every automobile manufacturer makes it clear that electric cars are the future.

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Ernst & Young: Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected

Photo, posted April 25, 2021, courtesy of Rutger van der Maar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Not Such Climate Champions | Earth Wise

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The goal of the Paris Climate Accord is to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and if possible to stay as close as close to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.  Nations around the world have made commitments to drastically reduce their carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels that are in large part responsible for the rising temperatures.

There are a number of countries that proudly claim to be leading the world in the fight against climate change but who are actually still a major part of the problem.  Among these are Norway, the UK, and Canada.

Norway powers its streetlamps with renewables, runs its public transportation system entirely by renewable energy, and leads the world in the adoption of electric cars.  Both the UK and Canada have set ambitious targets for emissions reductions leading to zero net emissions by 2050. 

The problem is that under the Paris Agreement, each country is only responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions produced within its territory.  That means that the UK, Canada, and Norway (like many other countries) don’t need to worry about the emissions caused by the burning of their oil, gas, and coal in other places around the world.

Norway’s annual domestic emissions reached about 53 million tons in 2017 according to its government.  The emissions from the oil and gas Norway sold abroad reached roughly 470 million tons in 2017.  Canada has huge proven oil reserves it is exploiting.

Canada, Norway, and the UK all plan to keep producing fossil fuels, investing in new fossil fuel projects, and explorations.  As long as this continues, these countries are not really climate champions; they are climate hypocrites.

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Norway, the UK and Canada are not climate champions. They are climate hypocrites

Photo, posted September 4, 2008, courtesy of Statkraft via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Positive Tipping Points And Climate | Earth Wise

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A tipping point is a moment when a small change triggers a large and possibly irreversible response.

There has been much discussion of various tipping points that could accelerate climate change in catastrophic ways.  A recent paper from researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK discusses a couple of tipping points that could accelerate positive progress on mitigating climate change.

Electric vehicles account for only 2-3% of new car sales globally. In Norway, this figure is more than 50%, mostly thanks to policies that make electric cars the same price to buy as conventional cars.   According to the Exeter study, when EVs cost the same to manufacture as conventional cars, it will be a global tipping point.  China, the EU, and California together are responsible for half of the world’s car sales and each of these has targets to rapidly decarbonize their economies and policies in place to speed the transition to electric vehicles. 

Decarbonizing electric power is the other potential positive tipping point.  In Europe, carbon taxes on top of increasing renewable energy generation have tipped coal into unprofitability as they have led to the irreversible destruction of coal plants.  Globally, renewables are already generating electricity cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries.  Decarbonizing global power generation would in turn help accelerate decarbonization of large parts of transportation, heating and cooling, and industry.

These potential positive tipping points are by no means inevitable.  Appropriate policies are needed to overcome various barriers to the clean energy transition.  But major changes in transportation and electric power would have a tremendous impact on the global effort to combat climate change.

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Positive ‘tipping points’ offer hope for climate

Photo, posted July 14, 2020, courtesy of Jim Champion via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic Northeast Passage May Open | Earth Wise

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The Northwest Passage is the sea route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans through the Arctic Ocean.  It goes along the northern coast of North America, traveling though the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  In the past, it was the domain of intrepid explorers like Roald Amundsen.  Because of the receding ice in the Arctic, in recent years it has become possible to travel the Northwest Passage by cruise ship.

The Northeast Passage connects the same two oceans along the Arctic coasts of Norway and Siberia.  The sustained loss of sea ice is now leading to accessibility of Arctic sea passages through this route.

Compared with the customary route through the Strait of Malacca in Malaysia and the Suez Canal, using the Northeast Passage could reduce the travel distance between Europe and northwest Asia by one-third.  This would reduce the expense of transportation and lower environmental pollution.  Many Asian countries have a strong strategic and economic interest in Arctic shipping.  Russia would gain strong competitive advantages for its liquified natural gas industry.

According to a recent study at the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the continuing warming of the Arctic seas is likely to result in the Northeast Passage being navigable for open water ships by next year and will continue to be increasingly hospitable to marine traffic.

The economic and strategic benefits to the opening of the Northeast Passage are quite clear.  What is also clear is that the underlying cause of the opening of the passage – the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice – is not beneficial to the world at all and is a harbinger of troubling things in our future.

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Arctic Northeast Passage may be Navigable in Near Future

Photo, posted September 24, 2005, courtesy of Paul Downey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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