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Cooling The Earth With A Warmer Arctic | Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Researchers are considering a wide range of approaches to mitigate the effects of global climate change.  Among these are various strategies of geoengineering, which must be viewed with enormous caution, given the high likelihood of unintended consequences from almost anything we might do.

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis have investigated potential strategies for cooling the planet in the absence of Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic region is heating up faster than any other place on earth and its sea ice is rapidly disappearing.  Estimates are that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will be largely gone within a generation.  Arctic ice and snow reflect the sun’s energy into space, which helps to keep the planet cool.  What happens if that ice is gone?

The researchers explored the fact that the Arctic Ocean ice actually insulates the Arctic atmosphere from the warmer water under the ice.  Without the ice layer, the surface water would actually increase air temperatures by 20 degrees C during the winter.  That in turn would increase the heat irradiated into space and thereby cool down the planet.

The Arctic sea ice is in part maintained because the upper regions of the Arctic Ocean have lower salinity than the Atlantic Ocean.  This stops Atlantic water from flowing above the cold Arctic waters.  So, if we were to somehow deliberately increase the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface water, warmer, less salty Atlantic Ocean water would flow in, increase the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere, and release heat trapped in the ocean into space.

It all sounds pretty crazy, but the researchers say that given the seriousness of climate change, all options should be considered when dealing with it.

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Could we cool the Earth with an ice-free Arctic?

Photo, posted August 19, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Scandinavian Wine

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The warming climate is creating some unexpected entrepreneurial opportunities.  Many places that have traditionally dominated the wine industry are starting to be worried that the local climates that made them ideal for vineyards are changing and becoming much less ideal.  On the other hand, places where wine-making was regarded as a losing proposition are becoming much more hospitable.  A prime example is Scandinavia.

Nordic vintners are increasingly convinced that they can develop thriving commercial operations in what used to be places that are too cold for successful wine-making.

Denmark now has 90 commercial vineyards, up from just two 15 years ago.  Forty vineyards have sprung up in Sweden.  About a dozen vineyards are now operating as far north as Norway.

Many of these Nordic vineyards are in the startup stage and are tiny compared with the established wineries of Europe.  Europe has 10 million acres of vineyards, which is enough to cover almost the entire country of Denmark.  At the moment, there are only about 1,000 acres of vineyards in Denmark and Sweden.

But, looking forward, Scandinavia’s climate is forecast to be more like northern France, as regional temperatures climb as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit.  Over the past decade, warming has produced milder winters, a longer growing season, and even a small but rising number of award-winning Scandinavian wines.

Meanwhile, traditional wine-growing regions are also dealing with climate change.  Winemakers in France, for example, are experimenting with grapes from warmer countries like Tunisia to see if they can retain the tastes and yields that are the basis of a multibillion-dollar wine industry.  Spanish and Italian winemakers are planting grapes higher up on mountainsides or on shaded north-facing slopes to preserve the quality of their wine.

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Scandinavian Wine? A Warming Climate Tempts Entrepreneurs

Photo, posted August 24, 2019, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

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According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

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Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Monster Tumbleweeds

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Tumbleweeds have long been seen as symbols of America’s old west.  Tumbleweeds are a structural part of the above-ground anatomy of a number of species of plants known as diaspores.  Diaspores are essentially seed dispersal units.  In a few seed plants, they comprise most or all of the plant.  Once they are mature and dry, they detach from the roots and roll around due to the force of the wind.

There is a new species of gigantic tumbleweed – the Salsola ryanii – that is expanding its territory in the American west.  It is the result of a relatively unusual genetic process known as polyploidy, which produces offspring with multiple sets of chromosomes.  Researchers believe that that the new hybrid species of tumbleweed is healthier than earlier versions.  As a result, one geneticist described Salsola ryanii as a nasty species replacing other nasty species of tumbleweed in the US.

These tumbleweeds can grow up to 6 feet tall.  Tumbleweeds in general are invasive plants that cause traffic accidents, damage agricultural operations, and cause millions of dollars in property damage.  Last year, the town of Victorville in the California desert was buried in them, piling up to the second story of some houses.

Salsola ryanii has a relatively small range, but it is expanding rapidly.  The new study determined that it is more vigorous than its predecessors, which are invasive in 48 states.  The plant is an annual but tends to grow on the later side of winter.  It is one of the only things that is still green in late summer.  With summer rains increasing as the climate changes, these monster tumbleweeds are poised to wreak havoc.   The experts are warning that there should be efforts to suppress them before they take over.

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Monster tumbleweed: Invasive new species is here to stay

Photo, posted February 27, 2018, courtesy of Tracie Hall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Falling Bee Populations

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For many years, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators.  A reported 40% of invertebrate pollinator species, including bees and butterflies, are facing extinction. And since as much as three-quarters of the world’s food crops depend on pollination, the decline of these pollinators poses a major threat to global food security.

Pollinators aid in the production of all sorts of crops, including coffee, cacao, cotton, apples, and almonds – to name a few.  The global value of crops requiring pollination ranges from $235-$577 billion annually.

Honey bees are among the struggling pollinators.  Over the past 15 years, bee colonies have been disappearing at an alarming rate in what is known as the “colony collapse disorder.”  Some regions have seen losses of up to 90%. 

In the United States, managed honey bee populations declined by nearly 40% over this past winter, the largest such winter decline since surveying began in 2006.

In recent months, mass honey bee declines have also been reported in Russia, according to the BBC.  Russia, which produces a whopping 110,000 tons of honey annually, expects that figure to drop by as much as 20%.  The widespread bee decline is likely to not only push up honey prices, but the prices of other popular foods as well.  Many staple food crops in Russia, including sunflowers, buckwheat, and fruit trees, rely on bees for pollination.

Experts have blamed the bee decline crisis on a combination of factors, including pesticides (most notably neonicotinoids), varroa mites, and climate change.   

Bees play a vital role in food production, and their continued decline will have devastating consequences. 

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Russia alarmed by large fall in bee populations

Photo, posted July 28, 2019, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Energy Demand

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Human beings are utterly dependent upon energy both for our well-being and for societal development.  Our energy use is highly dependent upon climate since so much energy is expended either keeping us warm in winter or cool in summer.  As the climate changes, it is important to understand how energy demand is likely to be affected.

A new study published in Nature Communications by researchers in Austria, Italy and the United States explored this topic.  The study is a global analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.  The purpose was to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios by the year 2050.

The findings indicate that, compared to scenarios in which energy demand is driven only by population and income growth, climate change will increase the global demand for energy by 11-27% by the year 2050 under a modest warming scenario.  With vigorous climate warming, energy demand would increase by 25-58%.  (Large areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China, and the US are likely to experience the highest increases).

These findings are important because if energy use rises and leads to additional emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, it will be increasingly difficult to mitigate future climate warming.  Quantifying this risk provides even more incentive for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before these effects upon demand are realized and it becomes even more difficult to prevent further impacts.

Policymakers need to be aware that even moderate levels of climate change will lead to increases in energy demand that will make it increasingly difficult to minimize the harmful effects on their societies.

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More energy needed to cope with climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2008, courtesy of Matt Hintsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another Bad Year For Bees

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The latest annual nationwide survey of beekeepers in the US revealed that honeybees are still dying off at an alarming rate.  According to the survey, beekeepers across the country lost 40.7% of their honey bee colonies from April 2018 to April 2019. 

This annual loss represents a slight increase over the average annual loss of 38.7%.  Of greater concern is that winter losses of 37.7% were the highest reported since these annual surveys began 13 years ago and are almost 9% higher than the survey average.

These results are very troubling considering that the elevated losses are continuing even after a decade of intense work trying to understand and reduce colony loss.  Evidently, there has not been much progress.

The number one concern among beekeepers is varroa mites, which are lethal parasites that can readily spread from colony to colony.  These mites have been decimating bee colonies for years.  Products developed to remove mites seem to be getting less and less effective.

But mites are not the only problem for bees.  Land use changes have resulted in reduced availability of pollen sources for bees.  Add to that pesticide exposures, environmental factors, and even problems with beekeeping practices.   In addition, extreme weather conditions such as wildfires and floods are only adding to the problems facing bees.

The tools that used to work for beekeepers seem to be failing and they are already stretched to their limits trying to keep their bees alive. Honey bees pollinate $15 billion worth of food crops in the United States each year. The problems facing bees are a problem for all of us.

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U.S. Beekeepers Suffered Higher than Average Colony Loss Last Year, with Winter Losses the Highest Recorded, According to UMD-Led Annual Survey

Photo, posted June 3, 2009, courtesy of Jennifer C via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Harsh Winters

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In recent years, there have been some unusually harsh winters in North America and Central Europe. This past January, the Midwestern US experienced extreme cold temperatures. We have all become familiar with the term ‘polar vortex’ and its role in sending cold air to middle latitudes and it is generally agreed that unusual behavior by the jet stream is the primary cause of the extreme winter weather.

For years, climate researchers around the world have been investigating the question as to whether the increasingly common wandering of the jet stream is a product of climate change or is a random phenomenon associated with natural variations in the climate system.

The jet stream is a powerful band of westerly winds over the middle latitudes that push major weather systems from west to east.  These days, the jet stream is increasingly faltering.  Instead of blowing along a straight course parallel to the equator, it sweeps across the Northern Hemisphere in massive waves, producing unusual intrusions of Arctic air into the middle latitudes.

Atmospheric researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany have now developed a climate model that can accurately predict the frequently observed winding course of the jet stream.  The breakthrough combines their global climate model with a new machine learning algorithm on ozone chemistry.  Using their new combined model, they can now show that the jet stream’s wavelike course in winter and subsequent extreme weather outbreaks are the direct result of climate change.  The changes in the jet stream are to a great extent caused by the decline in Arctic sea ice, according to the results of the investigations.  The results are not surprising but there is now a detailed model to support the hypothesis.

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A warming Arctic produces weather extremes in our latitudes

Photo, posted January 11, 2011, courtesy of Carl Wycoff via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bad News For Penguins

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The second-largest breeding colony of emperor penguins in Antarctica, located in the Waddell Sea, has experienced “catastrophic breeding failure” for the past three years.  Nearly all of the colony’s chicks have failed to survive due to the breakup of sea ice, according to a new study published in the journal Antarctic Science.

The colony was once home to 14,000 to 25,000 breeding pairs, which represents as much as 9% of the global emperor penguin population.  Emperor penguins are the tallest and heaviest of all living penguins, reaching up to 4 feet in height and weighing between 50 and 100 pounds.  They are the only penguin species that breeds during the Antarctic winter and their lengthy treks to breeding colonies have been the subject of numerous films and television shows.

Sea ice at Halley Bay in Antarctica had been stable and reliable for nearly 60 years but stormy weather in 2016 driven by El Nino conditions, strong winds, and record low ice extent caused the ice on which penguin chicks gather to break up.  This happened again in 2017 and 2018.  By last year, just a few hundred adult pairs were present at the breeding site and almost no chicks survived the ice breakup.

Researchers say that they have never seen a breeding failure on a scale like this in 60 years of studying the colonies.  On a more positive note, while the population of the Halley Bay site has collapsed, the Dawson-Lambton breeding area – located about 34 miles away – has actually seen significant growth over the past four years.  While this is encouraging, the growth at Dawson-Lambton does not fully compensate for the losses at Halley Bay, which was once considered relatively safe from the impacts of climate change.

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Emperor Penguin Colony Experiences “Catastrophic Breeding Failure”

Photo, posted February 22, 2011, courtesy of Krishna via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Glaciers And Water Supply

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The world has roughly 150,000 glaciers covering about 200,000 square miles of the earth’s surface.  Over the last 40 years they’ve lost the equivalent of a layer of ice 70 feet thick.  Most of them are getting shorter as well.  Some have shrunk to nothing; many smaller glaciers in places like the Rockies and the Andes have disappeared entirely.

Glaciers represent the snows of centuries, compressed over time to form flowing rivers of ice.  They always change over time, accumulating snow in winter and losing ice to melting in summer.  But in recent times, the warming climate has allowed the melting to outpace the accumulation.

Much of the discussion about the retreating glaciers relates to sea level rise, catastrophic floods, debris flow, and the effects on rivers and ecosystems.

But in some places, the biggest impact of the loss of glaciers is on the supply of water for people and agriculture.  In Kazakhstan, Almaty, the country’s largest city depends on glacier-fed rivers for drinking water for its 2 million people and for irrigation water for crops.  All across the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayan and Karakmoram mountain ranges, hundreds of millions of people rely on glacier-fed rivers for their water supplies. 

A melting glacier can at first increase stream flow but eventually reaches a tipping point and meltwater begins to taper.  In the short term, the melting glaciers may provide increased amounts of water coming down from the mountains, but eventually the flow in the rivers will begin to decline and populations will face a crisis.

It will be essential for people in many places to carefully plan for their future water needs in a changing world.

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Glaciers Are Retreating. Millions Rely on Their Water.

Photo, posted September 16, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Polar Vortex

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This winter has seen some brutally-cold weather in many places, some of it record-breaking.  Predictably, some climate-change deniers point to this as evidence that the climate is not warming at all.  They are quite wrong.

For starters, it is essential to understand the difference between climate and weather.  Climate is the average weather patterns in a region over extended periods of time.  Weather is the short-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure, wind, and so forth.  There can be extremes in weather of many types in a given climate region including very cold weather in a warming climate.

The recent cold weather events in the U.S. stem from the flow of Arctic air into southern regions.  Such flows are impacted dramatically by the behavior of the jet stream.  These high-altitude east-to-west winds are driven by temperature differences between cold arctic air and warm tropical air and play a huge role in our weather. 

The Arctic has seen extremely unusual warming due to the changing climate, weakening and fracturing the polar vortex, which is a persistent low-pressure area near the pole.   The changing air flow from the Arctic causes the jet stream to take wild swings.  When it swings further south, it causes cold air to reach farther south.  These swings tend to hang around for a while, leading to extended periods of cold weather in the winter and, actually, extended periods of warm weather or even droughts in the summer.  Studies have predicted that extreme, deadly weather events could increase by as much as fifty percent by 2100.

As more Arctic air flows into southern regions, North America can expect to see harsher winters.  The warming climate doesn’t always lead to warmer weather.

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Why cold weather doesn’t mean climate change is fake

Photo, posted January 30, 2019, courtesy of Kyle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cleaner Air For China

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For more than 15 years, the Chinese government has been grappling with some of the deadliest air pollution in the world.  Extreme pollution events are a regular wintertime occurrence and health experts estimate that more than a million people die each year in China from particulate air pollution.

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Cold And Snow From Global Warming

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The Arctic has been experiencing record warm temperatures and record low sea ice levels.  During February, there were nine days in a row with temperatures averaging 27 degrees above normal and often above freezing.  Over the previous 20 years, there were only two previous readings above freezing in February – once in 2011 and once last year.

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Neonics And Honey

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The use of neonicotinoid pesticides or neonics has long been suspected as harmful to bees and a major factor in the widespread decline of honeybee and wild bee populations.  A study published in Science last June provided strong evidence that neonics are indeed a real problem for bees.

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Winter Outlook

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Each year around this time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, releases its U.S. Winter Outlook that predicts overall weather trends around the country for the upcoming winter.  They produce these seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for the weather that is likely to be forthcoming.

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Air Pollution Shortens Lives

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Globally, an estimated 4.5 billion people are exposed to particulate air pollution levels that are at least twice that of what the World Health Organization considers safe.  But the impact that sustained exposure to air pollution has on a person’s life expectancy has remained a frustratingly unanswered question.  That is until now.

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‘Noah’s Ark’ Takes On Water

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The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, built into a hillside in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard far above the Arctic Circle, is often described as humanity’s last hope against extinction after some global crisis.  While there are more than 1,700 gene banks around the world that keep collections of seeds, all of them are vulnerable to war, natural disasters, equipment malfunctions, and other problems.  Except the Svalbard vault – or so we thought.  It has been dubbed the “Noah’s Ark” of seeds and a last chance for the world to regenerate if the worst should come to pass.  It’s mission is to keep the world’s seeds safe. 

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Northeast Temperatures

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A year ago, nearly 200 countries signed an agreement, known as the Paris Accord, to fight climate change by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.  They each promised to reduce their carbon output as soon as possible, and to do their best to keep global warming well below 2-degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). 

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Record Low Sea Ice

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This time of the year, sea ice in the Arctic is on the rise as winter sets in.  A combination of unusually high air temperatures and a warmer than normal ocean led to a record low for Arctic sea ice extent in November.  In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic sea ice extent also hit a record low for the month.

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