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The Great Salt Lake Is Disappearing | Earth Wise

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Utah’s Great Salt Lake is the largest saltwater lake in the western hemisphere.  According to data from the US Geological Survey, the surface water elevation of the Great Salt Lake has fallen to the lowest level since records began in the mid-1800s.  The average elevation is now 4,190 feet above sea level.   With this drop in water level, the surface area of the lake is little more than half of its historical size.  The lower water level has exposed about 700 square miles of previously submerged lakebed.

The lake now contains about a quarter of the volume of water that it did at its high point in 1987.  The precipitous drop in water is a result of water usage from the lake coupled with climate change-fueled drought.   Increased water demand is due to the rapidly growing population of metropolitan Salt Lake City.  Utah’s population is projected to increase by almost 50% by 2060.

The Great Salt Lake goes though seasonal cycles of water loss and replenishment.  Rain and snow generally refill its level.  However, because of the ongoing megadrought in the West, water evaporation and depletion continue to exceed the amount of water entering the lake.  The water levels are expected to further decrease until fall or early winter, when incoming water is expected to equal or exceed evaporation.

The decline of the Great Salt Lake is a serious threat to the economy, ecology, and people of northern Utah.  The lake generates snowpack, is a refuge for hundreds of migratory birds and other wildlife and generates millions of dollars in the economy through mineral extraction and tourism.

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Utah’s Great Salt Lake is disappearing

Photo, posted October 6, 2020, courtesy of Julie Girard via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Spring is Sooner And Warmer In The United States | Earth Wise

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Despite some March snowstorms in the Northeast, the record shows that spring is getting warmer and coming sooner in the United States.

The independent research organization Climate Central analyzed 52 years of spring data across the United States.  Half of the 234 locations studied had an increase in their average spring temperatures of at least 2 degrees.  About 70% of the locations had at least 7 extra days above their normal spring temperatures.  About the only part of the country where spring hasn’t gotten much warmer is in the upper Midwest.

Over that time period, the average spring temperature in Albany, NY has increased by 2.1 degrees.  And compared with 1970, there are now 11 more warm spring days in New York’s Capital Region.

Spring warming has been greatest in the Southwest.  The three cities with the largest temperature increases were Reno, Nevada at 6.8 degrees, Las Vegas, Nevada with 6.2 degrees, and El Paso, Texas with 5.9 degrees.

Spring has been arriving early as a result of the warming conditions, cutting into the cold winter months.  While an early spring sounds like nothing but good news, the shift can cause problems.  An early spring and early last freeze can lengthen the growing season.  With it comes the arrival of mosquitoes and pollen and its associated allergy season.

A greater problem is that spring warming can disrupt the timing of ecosystem events.  For example, migratory birds could show up at the wrong time, impacting their food availability and breeding success.

As the overall climate changes, so does the spring.

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2022 Spring Package

Photo, posted March 20, 2011, courtesy of Suzie Tremmel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Winter Olympics | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Waterloo in Canada, climate change will limit where the Winter Olympics can be held as winter changes across the Northern Hemisphere. 

The international research team found that by the end of the century only one of the 21 cities that have previously hosted the Winter Olympics would be able to reliably provide fair and safe conditions for winter sports if global greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically reduced. 

However, if the emissions targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement can be reached, the number of climate-reliable host cities for the Winter Olympics would jump to eight.

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, the researchers reviewed historical climate data from the 1920s to today, as well as future climate change scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s.  The researchers also surveyed international athletes and coaches, and found that 89% of them felt that changing weather patterns are already affecting competition conditions. 

The average February daytime temperature of host cities has been steadily increasing.  At the winter games held between the 1920s and 1950s, the average temperature was 32.7°F.  It rose to 37.6°F at games between the 1960s and 1990s, and has spiked to 43.3°F in the games held in the twenty-first century.  The planet is projected to warm another 3.6°F to 7.9°F this century depending on our ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions is critical to ensure that there remain places across the globe to host the Winter Olympics.

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Climate change threatens future Winter Olympics

Photo, posted February 21, 2010, courtesy of Michael via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Smart Roof | Earth Wise

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Scientists at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory have developed an all-season smart roof coating that can keep homes warm during the winter and cool during the summer, and the coating does not consume any gas or electricity.

Existing cool roof systems consist of reflective coatings, membranes, shingles, or tile that lower house temperatures by reflecting sunlight as well as emitting some of the absorbed solar heat away from the roof as infrared radiation.  The problem with such systems is that they continue to radiate heat during the winter, which actually drives up heating costs.

The new material is called a temperature-adaptive radiative coating or TARC.  It enables energy savings by automatically turning off the radiative cooling in the winter.  TARC reflects about 75% of sunlight year-round, but its thermal emittance is high when the temperature is warm – promoting heat loss to the sky – but decreases in cooler weather, helping to retain the heat in a building.

The researchers produced thin-film TARC material that looks like Scotch tape that could be affixed to a surface like a rooftop.  They applied the material to a balcony alongside a sample of commercial dark roof material and a sample of commercial white roof material.

In experiments simulating 15 different climate zones across the US, they found that the TARC material outperforms existing roof coatings for energy savings in 12 out of the 15 zones, particularly in regions with wide temperature variations between day and night, such as in the San Francisco Bay Area, or between winter and summer, such as New York City.

The researchers believe that installing TARC coatings on roofs would save the average U.S. household about 10% in utility costs.

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New Smart-Roof Coating Enables Year-Round Energy Savings

Photo, posted May 18, 2017, courtesy of Damian Gadal via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Florida’s Starving Manatees | Earth Wise

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Manatees, also called “sea cows”, have been the victims of farm runoff.  They have starved to death by the hundreds along Florida’s east coast because algae blooms fed by nitrogen-rich fertilizer runoff are proliferating on the ocean surface and blocking sunlight from reaching seagrass below.  Seagrass is the primary source of food for manatees in the winter.  As seagrass dies off, so do the manatees.

Over 1,000 manatees have been found dead so far this year.  It is estimated that fewer than 8,000 remain in Florida waters.  Efforts are underway to restore coastal seagrass in the region as well as clams and oysters, which filter pollutants from water.  Unless the water is cleared up, it will be difficult to regrow the seagrass.  But the current situation is that manatees are so short on food that they are eating seagrass roots, killing the plants and thwarting efforts to help seagrass recovery.

Given this dire situation, the federal governmental has approved a program of feeding manatees.  The starving animals will be fed by hand in Florida, which is a rare wildlife intervention.  Conservation agencies tend to favor leaving wild animals to their own foraging and hunting so that they don’t become dependent on human handouts.

During the trial phase of the program, wildlife experts are likely to feed the animals romaine lettuce and cabbage, which is what manatees in captivity eat.  The hope is to give the animals enough additional food for them to get through the winter.  The trial feeding will begin on private property.  It remains illegal for the public to feed manatees.

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Florida to feed starving manatees in rare conservation move

Photo, posted February 21, 2008, courtesy of Keith Ramos/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Overwintering Fires | Earth Wise

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Fires that go on for long periods of time, surviving the snow and rain of winter to reemerge in the spring, are becoming more common in high northern latitudes as the climate warms.  Such fires are called holdover fires, hibernating fires, overwintering fires, or even zombie fires.  Whatever people choose to call them, this type of wildfire is occurring more often.

These smoldering fires start out as flaming fires but then enter an energy-saver mode.  They start above ground but then smolder in the soil or under tree roots through the winter.  They barely survive based on the oxygen and fuel resources that they have but can transition back into flaming fires once conditions are more favorable.

Dutch researchers used ground-based data with fire detection data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites to study fires in the boreal forests of Alaska and Canada’s Northwest Territories.  They found a way to identify overwintering fires based on their unique characteristics.  

Their data indicates that overwintering fires tend to be linked to high summer temperatures and large fire seasons.  Between 2002 and 2018, overwintering fires generally accounted for a small amount of the total burned area in the region but in individual years with hot and severe fire seasons, the number can escalate.  In 2008 in Alaska, for example, overwintering fires accounted for nearly 40% of the burned area.

Early detection of these overwintering fires could help with fire management and reduce the amount of carbon – which is stored in large amounts in the region’s organic soils – that gets released to the atmosphere during fires.

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Overwintering Fires on the Rise

Photo, posted September 14, 2017, courtesy of Andrew R. Mitchell/USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Record Heat In The Arctic | Earth Wise

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By mid-November, the Arctic stays dark around the clock and twilight does not return until the end of January.  But even as winter darkness descended upon the Arctic this year, record-breaking high temperatures in the region continued.  In late November, temperatures across the entire Arctic basin were 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal and some locations saw temperatures as high as 30 degrees above normal.

The entire summer and fall in the Arctic were characterized by exceptionally warm temperatures.  In June, the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk – located north of the Arctic Circle – registered a high temperature of 100.4 degrees.  The refreezing of the Arctic Ocean was greatly delayed this year.  The Northeast Passage along the Siberian Coast remained navigable for a record 112 days before freezing in November, breaking the previous record by more than a month.  The extent of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean in October was the lowest ever recorded for that month.

The strongest warming occurring in the Arctic is during the fall.  That is because rapidly disappearing sea ice is enabling the dark waters of the Arctic Ocean to absorb heat in the summer and then radiate it back into the atmosphere until late in the fall.  The Arctic region is heating up three times faster than the rest of the planet, which has led to the volume of sea ice decreasing by 2/3 in the past 40 years.

According to researchers, the extreme heat in Siberia this year would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change and became 600 times more likely because of human emissions of greenhouse gases.

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Record-shattering Warmth Pushes Arctic Temperatures to 12 Degrees F Above Normal

Photo, posted September 1, 2009, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey via Flickr. Photo Credit: Patrick Kelley, U.S. Coast Guard.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Arctic Methane Starting To Release | Earth Wise

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An international team of researchers has found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast.  High levels of methane have been detected down to a depth of 1,100 feet in the Laptev Sea near Russia.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain huge quantities of methane and other gases, known as hydrates.  Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.  The US Geological Survey has identified Arctic hydrate destabilization as one of the four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

The research team aboard a Russian ship said that most of the bubbles they observed coming up from the sea bottom were dissolving in the water, but that methane levels at the surface were four to eight times what would normally be expected.

Frozen methane deposits have been called the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle.”  If these deposit releases were to reach a high enough level, it would be a tipping point that could greatly increase the speed of global warming.  With Arctic temperatures now rising more than twice as fast as the global average, the likelihood of a significant release of the frozen methane grows greater all the time.

Temperatures in Siberia were 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average from January to June this year.  Last winter’s sea ice melted unusually early.  This winter’s freeze has yet to begin, which is already a later start than any time on record.

These new discharges of methane are larger than anything found before and are a very worrisome occurrence.

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Arctic methane deposits ‘starting to release’, scientists say

Photo, posted September 26, 2014, courtesy of the Office of Naval Research via Flickr. Photo credit: U.S. Navy photo by John F. Williams/Released.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Shrinking Ice In The Bering Sea | Earth Wise

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The Bering Sea forms the divide between the two largest landmasses on Earth:  Eurasia and the Americas.  Recent analysis of vegetation from a Bering Sea island has determined that the extent of sea ice in the region is the lowest it has been for over 5,000 years.

St. Matthew Island, a small island in the middle of the Bering Sea, has essentially been recording what is happening in the ocean and atmosphere around it, in the form of the composition of peat layers on the island.  By analyzing the chemical composition of peat core samples, scientists can estimate how sea ice in the region has changed over the course of time.

Changes in the relative amounts of two oxygen isotopes in the sediment and plant debris trapped in the peat on the island reflect the nature of precipitation during the period when the peat layers formed.  That ratio is correlated with the amount of sea ice in the region.  Satellite data acquired over the past 40 years confirms this correlation.

Analysis of the data shows that the current ice levels are unprecedented in the last 5,500 years.  These long-term findings affirm that reductions in Bering Sea ice are due to more than recent higher temperatures associated with global warming.  Atmospheric and ocean currents, which have also been altered by climate change, play a large role in the presence of sea ice.

Summertime sea ice in the Arctic was expected to reach its second-lowest extent in September in 40 years of observation.  Sea ice typically builds up again each winter, but the changes in ice extents actually lag behind changes in greenhouse gas level by decades.  Future ice loss is already built into the system.

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Bering Sea ice extent is at most reduced state in last 5,500 years

Photo, posted December 2, 2012, courtesy of Bering Land Bridge National Preserve via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cooling The Earth With A Warmer Arctic | Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Researchers are considering a wide range of approaches to mitigate the effects of global climate change.  Among these are various strategies of geoengineering, which must be viewed with enormous caution, given the high likelihood of unintended consequences from almost anything we might do.

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis have investigated potential strategies for cooling the planet in the absence of Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic region is heating up faster than any other place on earth and its sea ice is rapidly disappearing.  Estimates are that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will be largely gone within a generation.  Arctic ice and snow reflect the sun’s energy into space, which helps to keep the planet cool.  What happens if that ice is gone?

The researchers explored the fact that the Arctic Ocean ice actually insulates the Arctic atmosphere from the warmer water under the ice.  Without the ice layer, the surface water would actually increase air temperatures by 20 degrees C during the winter.  That in turn would increase the heat irradiated into space and thereby cool down the planet.

The Arctic sea ice is in part maintained because the upper regions of the Arctic Ocean have lower salinity than the Atlantic Ocean.  This stops Atlantic water from flowing above the cold Arctic waters.  So, if we were to somehow deliberately increase the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface water, warmer, less salty Atlantic Ocean water would flow in, increase the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere, and release heat trapped in the ocean into space.

It all sounds pretty crazy, but the researchers say that given the seriousness of climate change, all options should be considered when dealing with it.

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Could we cool the Earth with an ice-free Arctic?

Photo, posted August 19, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Scandinavian Wine

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The warming climate is creating some unexpected entrepreneurial opportunities.  Many places that have traditionally dominated the wine industry are starting to be worried that the local climates that made them ideal for vineyards are changing and becoming much less ideal.  On the other hand, places where wine-making was regarded as a losing proposition are becoming much more hospitable.  A prime example is Scandinavia.

Nordic vintners are increasingly convinced that they can develop thriving commercial operations in what used to be places that are too cold for successful wine-making.

Denmark now has 90 commercial vineyards, up from just two 15 years ago.  Forty vineyards have sprung up in Sweden.  About a dozen vineyards are now operating as far north as Norway.

Many of these Nordic vineyards are in the startup stage and are tiny compared with the established wineries of Europe.  Europe has 10 million acres of vineyards, which is enough to cover almost the entire country of Denmark.  At the moment, there are only about 1,000 acres of vineyards in Denmark and Sweden.

But, looking forward, Scandinavia’s climate is forecast to be more like northern France, as regional temperatures climb as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit.  Over the past decade, warming has produced milder winters, a longer growing season, and even a small but rising number of award-winning Scandinavian wines.

Meanwhile, traditional wine-growing regions are also dealing with climate change.  Winemakers in France, for example, are experimenting with grapes from warmer countries like Tunisia to see if they can retain the tastes and yields that are the basis of a multibillion-dollar wine industry.  Spanish and Italian winemakers are planting grapes higher up on mountainsides or on shaded north-facing slopes to preserve the quality of their wine.

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Scandinavian Wine? A Warming Climate Tempts Entrepreneurs

Photo, posted August 24, 2019, courtesy of Ron Reiring via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

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According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

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Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Monster Tumbleweeds

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Tumbleweeds have long been seen as symbols of America’s old west.  Tumbleweeds are a structural part of the above-ground anatomy of a number of species of plants known as diaspores.  Diaspores are essentially seed dispersal units.  In a few seed plants, they comprise most or all of the plant.  Once they are mature and dry, they detach from the roots and roll around due to the force of the wind.

There is a new species of gigantic tumbleweed – the Salsola ryanii – that is expanding its territory in the American west.  It is the result of a relatively unusual genetic process known as polyploidy, which produces offspring with multiple sets of chromosomes.  Researchers believe that that the new hybrid species of tumbleweed is healthier than earlier versions.  As a result, one geneticist described Salsola ryanii as a nasty species replacing other nasty species of tumbleweed in the US.

These tumbleweeds can grow up to 6 feet tall.  Tumbleweeds in general are invasive plants that cause traffic accidents, damage agricultural operations, and cause millions of dollars in property damage.  Last year, the town of Victorville in the California desert was buried in them, piling up to the second story of some houses.

Salsola ryanii has a relatively small range, but it is expanding rapidly.  The new study determined that it is more vigorous than its predecessors, which are invasive in 48 states.  The plant is an annual but tends to grow on the later side of winter.  It is one of the only things that is still green in late summer.  With summer rains increasing as the climate changes, these monster tumbleweeds are poised to wreak havoc.   The experts are warning that there should be efforts to suppress them before they take over.

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Monster tumbleweed: Invasive new species is here to stay

Photo, posted February 27, 2018, courtesy of Tracie Hall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Falling Bee Populations

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For many years, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators.  A reported 40% of invertebrate pollinator species, including bees and butterflies, are facing extinction. And since as much as three-quarters of the world’s food crops depend on pollination, the decline of these pollinators poses a major threat to global food security.

Pollinators aid in the production of all sorts of crops, including coffee, cacao, cotton, apples, and almonds – to name a few.  The global value of crops requiring pollination ranges from $235-$577 billion annually.

Honey bees are among the struggling pollinators.  Over the past 15 years, bee colonies have been disappearing at an alarming rate in what is known as the “colony collapse disorder.”  Some regions have seen losses of up to 90%. 

In the United States, managed honey bee populations declined by nearly 40% over this past winter, the largest such winter decline since surveying began in 2006.

In recent months, mass honey bee declines have also been reported in Russia, according to the BBC.  Russia, which produces a whopping 110,000 tons of honey annually, expects that figure to drop by as much as 20%.  The widespread bee decline is likely to not only push up honey prices, but the prices of other popular foods as well.  Many staple food crops in Russia, including sunflowers, buckwheat, and fruit trees, rely on bees for pollination.

Experts have blamed the bee decline crisis on a combination of factors, including pesticides (most notably neonicotinoids), varroa mites, and climate change.   

Bees play a vital role in food production, and their continued decline will have devastating consequences. 

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Russia alarmed by large fall in bee populations

Photo, posted July 28, 2019, courtesy of Ivan Radic via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Energy Demand

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Human beings are utterly dependent upon energy both for our well-being and for societal development.  Our energy use is highly dependent upon climate since so much energy is expended either keeping us warm in winter or cool in summer.  As the climate changes, it is important to understand how energy demand is likely to be affected.

A new study published in Nature Communications by researchers in Austria, Italy and the United States explored this topic.  The study is a global analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.  The purpose was to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios by the year 2050.

The findings indicate that, compared to scenarios in which energy demand is driven only by population and income growth, climate change will increase the global demand for energy by 11-27% by the year 2050 under a modest warming scenario.  With vigorous climate warming, energy demand would increase by 25-58%.  (Large areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China, and the US are likely to experience the highest increases).

These findings are important because if energy use rises and leads to additional emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, it will be increasingly difficult to mitigate future climate warming.  Quantifying this risk provides even more incentive for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before these effects upon demand are realized and it becomes even more difficult to prevent further impacts.

Policymakers need to be aware that even moderate levels of climate change will lead to increases in energy demand that will make it increasingly difficult to minimize the harmful effects on their societies.

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More energy needed to cope with climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2008, courtesy of Matt Hintsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Another Bad Year For Bees

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The latest annual nationwide survey of beekeepers in the US revealed that honeybees are still dying off at an alarming rate.  According to the survey, beekeepers across the country lost 40.7% of their honey bee colonies from April 2018 to April 2019. 

This annual loss represents a slight increase over the average annual loss of 38.7%.  Of greater concern is that winter losses of 37.7% were the highest reported since these annual surveys began 13 years ago and are almost 9% higher than the survey average.

These results are very troubling considering that the elevated losses are continuing even after a decade of intense work trying to understand and reduce colony loss.  Evidently, there has not been much progress.

The number one concern among beekeepers is varroa mites, which are lethal parasites that can readily spread from colony to colony.  These mites have been decimating bee colonies for years.  Products developed to remove mites seem to be getting less and less effective.

But mites are not the only problem for bees.  Land use changes have resulted in reduced availability of pollen sources for bees.  Add to that pesticide exposures, environmental factors, and even problems with beekeeping practices.   In addition, extreme weather conditions such as wildfires and floods are only adding to the problems facing bees.

The tools that used to work for beekeepers seem to be failing and they are already stretched to their limits trying to keep their bees alive. Honey bees pollinate $15 billion worth of food crops in the United States each year. The problems facing bees are a problem for all of us.

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U.S. Beekeepers Suffered Higher than Average Colony Loss Last Year, with Winter Losses the Highest Recorded, According to UMD-Led Annual Survey

Photo, posted June 3, 2009, courtesy of Jennifer C via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Harsh Winters

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In recent years, there have been some unusually harsh winters in North America and Central Europe. This past January, the Midwestern US experienced extreme cold temperatures. We have all become familiar with the term ‘polar vortex’ and its role in sending cold air to middle latitudes and it is generally agreed that unusual behavior by the jet stream is the primary cause of the extreme winter weather.

For years, climate researchers around the world have been investigating the question as to whether the increasingly common wandering of the jet stream is a product of climate change or is a random phenomenon associated with natural variations in the climate system.

The jet stream is a powerful band of westerly winds over the middle latitudes that push major weather systems from west to east.  These days, the jet stream is increasingly faltering.  Instead of blowing along a straight course parallel to the equator, it sweeps across the Northern Hemisphere in massive waves, producing unusual intrusions of Arctic air into the middle latitudes.

Atmospheric researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany have now developed a climate model that can accurately predict the frequently observed winding course of the jet stream.  The breakthrough combines their global climate model with a new machine learning algorithm on ozone chemistry.  Using their new combined model, they can now show that the jet stream’s wavelike course in winter and subsequent extreme weather outbreaks are the direct result of climate change.  The changes in the jet stream are to a great extent caused by the decline in Arctic sea ice, according to the results of the investigations.  The results are not surprising but there is now a detailed model to support the hypothesis.

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A warming Arctic produces weather extremes in our latitudes

Photo, posted January 11, 2011, courtesy of Carl Wycoff via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bad News For Penguins

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The second-largest breeding colony of emperor penguins in Antarctica, located in the Waddell Sea, has experienced “catastrophic breeding failure” for the past three years.  Nearly all of the colony’s chicks have failed to survive due to the breakup of sea ice, according to a new study published in the journal Antarctic Science.

The colony was once home to 14,000 to 25,000 breeding pairs, which represents as much as 9% of the global emperor penguin population.  Emperor penguins are the tallest and heaviest of all living penguins, reaching up to 4 feet in height and weighing between 50 and 100 pounds.  They are the only penguin species that breeds during the Antarctic winter and their lengthy treks to breeding colonies have been the subject of numerous films and television shows.

Sea ice at Halley Bay in Antarctica had been stable and reliable for nearly 60 years but stormy weather in 2016 driven by El Nino conditions, strong winds, and record low ice extent caused the ice on which penguin chicks gather to break up.  This happened again in 2017 and 2018.  By last year, just a few hundred adult pairs were present at the breeding site and almost no chicks survived the ice breakup.

Researchers say that they have never seen a breeding failure on a scale like this in 60 years of studying the colonies.  On a more positive note, while the population of the Halley Bay site has collapsed, the Dawson-Lambton breeding area – located about 34 miles away – has actually seen significant growth over the past four years.  While this is encouraging, the growth at Dawson-Lambton does not fully compensate for the losses at Halley Bay, which was once considered relatively safe from the impacts of climate change.

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Emperor Penguin Colony Experiences “Catastrophic Breeding Failure”

Photo, posted February 22, 2011, courtesy of Krishna via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Glaciers And Water Supply

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The world has roughly 150,000 glaciers covering about 200,000 square miles of the earth’s surface.  Over the last 40 years they’ve lost the equivalent of a layer of ice 70 feet thick.  Most of them are getting shorter as well.  Some have shrunk to nothing; many smaller glaciers in places like the Rockies and the Andes have disappeared entirely.

Glaciers represent the snows of centuries, compressed over time to form flowing rivers of ice.  They always change over time, accumulating snow in winter and losing ice to melting in summer.  But in recent times, the warming climate has allowed the melting to outpace the accumulation.

Much of the discussion about the retreating glaciers relates to sea level rise, catastrophic floods, debris flow, and the effects on rivers and ecosystems.

But in some places, the biggest impact of the loss of glaciers is on the supply of water for people and agriculture.  In Kazakhstan, Almaty, the country’s largest city depends on glacier-fed rivers for drinking water for its 2 million people and for irrigation water for crops.  All across the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayan and Karakmoram mountain ranges, hundreds of millions of people rely on glacier-fed rivers for their water supplies. 

A melting glacier can at first increase stream flow but eventually reaches a tipping point and meltwater begins to taper.  In the short term, the melting glaciers may provide increased amounts of water coming down from the mountains, but eventually the flow in the rivers will begin to decline and populations will face a crisis.

It will be essential for people in many places to carefully plan for their future water needs in a changing world.

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Glaciers Are Retreating. Millions Rely on Their Water.

Photo, posted September 16, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Polar Vortex

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This winter has seen some brutally-cold weather in many places, some of it record-breaking.  Predictably, some climate-change deniers point to this as evidence that the climate is not warming at all.  They are quite wrong.

For starters, it is essential to understand the difference between climate and weather.  Climate is the average weather patterns in a region over extended periods of time.  Weather is the short-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, barometric pressure, wind, and so forth.  There can be extremes in weather of many types in a given climate region including very cold weather in a warming climate.

The recent cold weather events in the U.S. stem from the flow of Arctic air into southern regions.  Such flows are impacted dramatically by the behavior of the jet stream.  These high-altitude east-to-west winds are driven by temperature differences between cold arctic air and warm tropical air and play a huge role in our weather. 

The Arctic has seen extremely unusual warming due to the changing climate, weakening and fracturing the polar vortex, which is a persistent low-pressure area near the pole.   The changing air flow from the Arctic causes the jet stream to take wild swings.  When it swings further south, it causes cold air to reach farther south.  These swings tend to hang around for a while, leading to extended periods of cold weather in the winter and, actually, extended periods of warm weather or even droughts in the summer.  Studies have predicted that extreme, deadly weather events could increase by as much as fifty percent by 2100.

As more Arctic air flows into southern regions, North America can expect to see harsher winters.  The warming climate doesn’t always lead to warmer weather.

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Web Links

Why cold weather doesn’t mean climate change is fake

Photo, posted January 30, 2019, courtesy of Kyle via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)