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Positive tipping points and climate

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We often hear about tipping points and climate change.  Tipping points are critical thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating, and often irreversible changes.  Some of the ones of concern with the climate are thawing permafrost, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and global temperatures reaching certain levels.  These are all tipping points that are essential to avoid.

A study published in the journal One Earth by researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK contends that in order to avoid the severe consequences of climate change, we need to trigger some positive tipping points.

Many climate-friendly changes are happening too slowly.  Triggering positive tipping points is a way to rapidly reach the high levels of decarbonization required to avoid triggering the negative tipping points of great concern.

Reaching a positive tipping point is a way that beneficial changes can rapidly gain momentum.  One example is the adoption of electric vehicles.  It has clearly reached a tipping point across Scandinavia and has happened rapidly.  Norway has managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to nearly 90% in less than 10 years.  At some point, everybody wanted an electric car.  This is evidence that positive tipping points can happen.

Many of the other forms of decarbonization need to move from their current level of adoption to rapid expansion.  A combination of affordability, attractiveness, availability, and political will are needed to trigger tipping points.  Exactly what those tipping point are is not necessarily known, but unless something accelerates the current pace of change, it will be very difficult to prevent negative climate tipping points from changing the world in destructive ways.

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Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis

Photo, posted July 8, 2023, courtesy of Michael Swan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Rivers And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Our planet is heating up.  Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.  Some of the effects of global climate change include thawing permafrost, rising seas, intensifying storms and wildfires, and warming oceans.   

According to a new study led by researchers from Penn State University, rivers are warming and losing oxygen even faster than oceans.  The study, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that warming occurred in 87% and oxygen loss occurred in 70% of the nearly 800 rivers studied.

The research team projects that within the next 70 years some river systems, especially those in the American South, will experience such low oxygen levels that the rivers could “induce acute death” for some fish species and threaten the aquatic diversity of river ecosystems. 

The research team used artificial intelligence and deep learning to analyze water quality data from nearly 800 rivers across the U.S. and central Europe.  The researchers found that rivers are warming up and deoxygenating faster than oceans, which could have serious implications for both aquatic life and humans.

While climate change has led to warming and oxygen loss in oceans and lakes around the world, the researchers did not expect to find warming and deoxygenation in shallower, flowing rivers.  Since life in water depends on temperature and dissolved oxygen, the researchers hope this study serves as a wake up call.  Warming and deoxygenating rivers have significant implications for water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems worldwide.

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Rivers are rapidly warming, losing oxygen; aquatic life at risk

Photo, posted June 2, 2017, courtesy of Francisco Anzola via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Vanishing Arctic Lakes | Earth Wise

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In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world.  The phenomenon is known as Arctic amplification.  A study by the Finnish Meteorological Institute published in August in Communications Earth & Environment determined that during the past 43 years, the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe.  The result of this amplified warming has been that glaciers are collapsing, wildlife is struggling, and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace.

Research published by the University of Florida has identified a new threat associated with Arctic amplification: lakes in the Arctic are drying up.

Over the past 20 years, many Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried up completely across the entire pan-Arctic region, which spans the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia, and Alaska.

Arctic lakes are essential elements of the Arctic ecosystem and for the indigenous communities that live in the region.  They provide a critical source of fresh water for those communities and local industries. 

The rapid decline of Arctic lakes is unexpected.  Earlier predictions were that climate change would first actually expand lakes in the region as ground ice melted.  Lakes drying out was not expected until much later in this century or even in the 22nd century.  Instead, it appears that thawing permafrost may drain lakes and overwhelm the expansion effect caused by melting ice.  The theory is that thawing permafrost decreases lake area by creating drainage channels and increasing soil erosion.

The finding suggest that permafrost thawing is occurring faster than anticipated, which presents many additional problems.

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As the climate crisis intensifies, lakes across the Arctic are vanishing

Photo, posted June 20, 2014, courtesy of Bob Wick / Bureau of Land Management via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Dangers Of Thawing Permafrost | Earth Wise

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The thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic is a major concern from the standpoint of the potential release of enormous amounts of carbon dioxide trapped in it.  There are nearly 2,000 billion tons of carbon there, which is as much as humanity releases into the atmosphere in 50 years.  But greenhouse gases are not the only danger posed by permafrost thawing.  There are also microbes, unknown viruses, and chemicals that could be very dangerous.

More than 100 diverse microorganisms in Siberia’s deep permafrost have been found to be antibiotic resistant.  The deep permafrost is one of the few environments on Earth that have not been exposed to modern antibiotics.  As the permafrost thaws, its bacteria could mix with meltwater and create new antibiotic-resistant strains.

By-products of fossil fuels – introduced into permafrost environments since the beginning of the industrial revolution – are present.  Metal deposits including arsenic, mercury, and nickel, have been mined for decades and have contaminated large areas.

Now-banned pollutants and chemicals – including DDT – came to the Arctic through the atmosphere and over time have become trapped in the permafrost.

There is now ongoing research further characterizing the microbes frozen in permafrost and providing more precise measurement of emissions hotspots in permafrost regions.  Scientists are increasingly turning to integrated Earth observations from the ground, the air, and space.

There are models that predict the gradual release of emissions from permafrost over the next century.  Other models say it could happen within just a few years.  The worst-case scenario would be utterly catastrophic but none of the scenarios portend anything good.

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Thawing Permafrost Could Leach Microbes, Chemicals Into Environment

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of Benjamin Jones/USGS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Coronavirus | Earth Wise

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It’s no secret that our planet is heating up.  Scientists have concluded that the changing climate is primarily the result of increased human-caused (or anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions.  Some of the effects of global climate change include thawing permafrost, warming oceans, intensifying storms and wildfires, and rising seas.     

In southern China, the surge in greenhouse gas emissions over the past century has driven the growth of forest habitat favored by bats, leading to the creation of a hotspot for bat-borne coronaviruses in that region. 

According to a new study by researchers from the University of Cambridge in the UK, climate change could have played a direct role in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study, which was recently published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, revealed large-scale changes in the type of vegetation in the southern Chinese Yunnan province over the last century, as well as in the adjacent regions of Myanmar and Laos.  Increases in temperature, sunlight, atmospheric carbon dioxide and other climatic changes have transformed natural habitats from tropical shrubland to tropical savannah and deciduous woodland.  These changes have created ideal habitats for many bat species that predominantly live in forests.

According to the study, an additional 40 bat species moved into Yunnan province over the past century.  This is the region where genetic data suggests SARS-CoV-2 may have arisen.  Each bat species harbors an average of 2.7 coronaviruses. 

The researchers urge policymakers to acknowledge the role that climate change plays in outbreaks of viral diseases and to work together to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. 

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Climate change may have driven the emergence of SARS-CoV-2

Photo, posted July 21, 2013, courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Ann Froschauer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Carbon Dioxide From Thawing Permafrost | Earth Wise

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The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet.  Stories about the loss of polar ice and hundred-degree temperatures in Siberia have become commonplace.  One of the most troubling aspects of the warming Arctic is the thawing of permafrost.  Permafrost is ground that remains frozen for at least two years; some of it has been frozen for tens or hundreds or even thousands of years.  Found under a layer of soil, permafrost is composed of rock, soil, sediments, and varying amounts of ice.  It stores the carbon-based remains of plants and animals that froze before they could decompose.  Permafrost covers almost a quarter of North America, but it is starting to thaw.

Scientists estimate that there are more than 16,000 billion tons of carbon locked away in Arctic permafrost, which is almost double the amount of carbon that is currently in the atmosphere.  Climate models predict that the warming of the Arctic could lead to 5 to 15% of that carbon to be emitted as carbon dioxide by the year 2,100, which would be enough to raise global temperatures by 0.3 to 0.4 degrees Celsius.

New research has increased this estimate because it includes a key pathway for CO2 to enter the atmosphere that earlier models ignored.   When carbon from thawing permafrost escapes into Arctic lakes and rivers, it is oxidized by ultraviolet and visible light and it then escapes into the atmosphere as CO2.  This process is known as photomineralization and is estimated to raise permafrost-related CO2 emissions by 14%.

Recent studies project that with every 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature, 1.5 million square miles of permafrost could be lost through thawing.

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Climate Models Underestimate CO2 Emissions from Permafrost by 14 Percent, Study Finds

Photo, posted July 7, 2014, courtesy of NPS Climate Change via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Methane-Eating Bacteria And Greenhouse Gas Emissions | Earth Wise

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One of the great concerns about the warming Arctic temperatures is that thawing permafrost will release alarming amounts of methane into the atmosphere.  Organic material in the permafrost begins to decompose when temperatures rise, and methane is released in the process.

Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.  Methane’s lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation.  Pound for pound, the comparative impact of methane is more than 25 times greater than carbon dioxide.

A new study, published by scientists at Purdue University, has discovered a type of methane-oxidizing bacteria living in upland Arctic soils that could potentially be reducing the amount of methane emitted by decomposing permafrost.

The findings of the research indicate that the net greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic may be much smaller than previously modeled because of the increased productivity of a type of bacteria known as high affinity methanotrophs, or HAMs.  This group of bacteria uses atmospheric methane as an energy source.  The emissions from wetlands will potentially be very large, but the contribution from the uplands will be mitigated by the bacteria.

Organic-rich soils, including permafrost, comprise only 13% of the Arctic land area and are the major source of methane emissions.  The other 87% of the region is dominated by mineral-rich soils that support HAMs.  Because of this, overall methane emissions continue to be less than climate models have predicted.

While this is good news, the researchers warn that Arctic emissions overall will continue to increase as shown in other studies.

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Methane-Eating Bacteria Could Help Decrease Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Thawing Arctic Tundra

Photo, posted July 12, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Hidden Source Of Arctic Carbon | Earth Wise

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Researchers from the University of Texas at Austin, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Florida State University have published a paper presenting evidence of significant and previously undetected concentrations and fluxes of dissolved organic matter entering Arctic coastal waters.  The source of the organic matter is groundwater flow atop the frozen permafrost.  The groundwater moves from land to sea unseen, but the new research reveals that it carries significant concentrations of carbon and other nutrients to Arctic coastal food webs.

Globally, groundwater is important for delivering carbon and other nutrients to oceans, but in the Arctic, where much water is trapped in the permafrost, its role was thought to be minimal.  But the new research reveals that groundwater may be contributing an amount of dissolved organic matter to the Alaskan Beaufort Sea that is comparable to what comes from neighboring rivers during the summer.

The researchers found that shallow groundwater flows beneath the surface and picks up new, young organic carbon and nitrogen, but it also mixes with layers of deeper soils and thawing permafrost, picking up and transporting century-to-millennia old organic carbon and nitrogen.  This material is unique because it is directly transported to the ocean without seeing or being photodegraded by sunlight and may be valuable as a food source to bacteria and higher organisms that live in Arctic coastal waters.

The study concluded that the supply of leachable organic carbon from groundwater amounts to as much as 70% of the dissolved organic matter that enters the Beaufort Sea from rivers during the summer.  The role that groundwater inputs play in Arctic coastal ecosystems will be an area of active research for years to come.

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Hidden Source of Carbon Found at the Arctic Coast

Photo, posted June 14, 2015, courtesy of Eugen Marculesco via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Defusing The Methane Time Bomb

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Permafrost is defined as soil that remains frozen for two or more consecutive years.  It is generally composed of rock, soil, sediments, and varying amounts of ice that binds it all together.  The permafrost of the Arctic represents one of the largest reservoirs of organic carbon in the world.  It covers vast regions of Siberia, northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland.

When permafrost thaws, microbes in the previously-frozen soil go to work digesting organic materials and release carbon dioxide and methane, both of which are greenhouse gases.  Methane is 25 times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, so it represents the greater threat.  The massive amounts of methane that could be released by thawing permafrost have been described as a ticking time bomb threatening the world’s climate.  Unfortunately, the permafrost in the Arctic is already starting to thaw as a result of climate change.

A new study by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis looked into the prospects for neutralizing the threat posed by the release of methane from thawing permafrost.  They analyzed the relative contributions of potential methane emissions from the permafrost and existing ones from human activities.  Human-caused methane emissions from fossil fuel activities, waste dumps, and livestock constitute a major source of the gas.  

Their conclusion is that if we can greatly reduce human-generated methane release, the effects of uncontrolled Arctic methane emissions could be mitigated.   It is unclear whether we can do much to stave off the Arctic methane release at this point, but the release of methane from human activities is something we can do something about.  But the clock is ticking.

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Diffusing the methane bomb: We can still make a difference

Photo, posted August 14, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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