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AI and energy

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MIT recently hosted a symposium on the subject of artificial intelligence being both a problem and a solution for the clean energy transition.

AI-powered computing centers are expanding rapidly, creating an unprecedented surge in electricity demand.  Electricity demand in the US had been relatively flat for decades but now these computing centers consume about 4% of the nation’s electricity.  Some projections say that this demand could rise to 12-15% in the next five years. 

The power required for sustaining some of the AI large-language models is doubling every three months.  The amount of electricity used by a single ChatGPT conversation is as much as it takes to charge a phone and consumes the equivalent of a bottle of water for cooling. 

The MIT symposium focused on the challenges of meeting these growing energy needs but also on the potential for AI to dramatically improve power systems and reduce carbon emissions. 

Research shows regional variations in the cost of powering computing centers with clean electricity.  The central United States offers lower costs due to complementary solar and wind resources but would require massive battery deployments to provide uninterrupted power.

Because of data center demand, there is renewed interest in nuclear power, often in the form of small modular reactors, as well as efforts in long-duration storage technologies, geothermal power, or hybrid approaches.

Artificial intelligence offers both great promise and great peril.  It will take real intelligence to steer it in the right direction.

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Confronting the AI/energy conundrum

Photo, posted August 31, 2024, courtesy of Jefferson Lab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Geothermal energy may be safe

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The Trump Administration is outwardly hostile to renewable energy, especially solar and wind power.  Federal support for these energy sources that are by far the most rapidly growing energy sources across the globe is being gutted while fossil fuels are being propped up.

There is also renewed enthusiasm for nuclear power and, somewhat surprisingly, geothermal heat.   Geothermal is a renewable and clean energy source that has long been mostly overlooked and underfunded.  The main reasons are its expense and the fact that its large-scale use is unproven. 

Historically, geothermal energy has relied upon naturally occurring features such as hot springs and shallow underground heat sources.  However, technological breakthroughs that began in 2013 have led to enhanced geothermal systems, or EGS.  EGS makes use of the fact that if you drill deep enough into the earth pretty much anywhere, you will encounter substantial amounts of heat.  EGS plants pump water three miles down or more where it encounters rock that reaches over 500 degrees.  The piping hot water is then brought to the surface where it spins turbines to generate electricity.

Several companies are developing EGS in the U.S.  financed by tech companies seeking power for their AI activities, the Defense Department, and even by fossil fuel companies who use comparable drilling technology for fracking.

The so-called Big Beautiful Bill passed by Congress in July that eliminates tax credits for wind and solar energy preserves tax credits for geothermal projects.

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Why U.S. Geothermal May Advance, Despite Political Headwinds

Photo, posted September 30, 2019, courtesy of Stephen D Strowes via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

New nuclear power for New York

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Nuclear power has been around since the 1950s, but it has fallen out of favor in recent decades, in part due to a couple of traumatic disasters at nuclear power plants.  In fact, only two new nuclear power plants have been built in the US in the past 30 years, and they took a very long time and an enormous amount of money to build.

However, in recent times there has been a great deal of developmental work on nuclear power.  Such newer technologies as small modular reactors, molten salt reactors, light water reactors, and more hold promise for safer, less expensive, and higher performance nuclear power.

In late June, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that she has instructed the New York Power Authority to develop and construct a zero-emission advanced nuclear power plant in Upstate New York.  The plant is to produce 1 GW of power, about half of what the decommissioned Indian Point Power Plant produced when it provided significant amounts of power to New York City residents.

Renewed interest in nuclear power has emerged in part because of the soaring electricity demand from AI data centers.  Companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have all begun investing in nuclear power for this reason.

NYPA is instructed to begin evaluating technologies, business models, and locations for the new power plant and will seek to secure key partnerships needed for the project.  As things stand, it is not known what technology the plant will use, where in Upstate New York it will be located, how much it will cost to build, who will pay for it, and how long it will take to build. 

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New York Again Embraces Nuclear Power With Plans to Build New Plant

Photo courtesy of Constellation Energy.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables dominate new global power

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The current administration in the United States is adversarial towards renewable energy and highly supportive of the use of fossil fuels.  Unquestionably, this will create rough waters for the clean energy industry and, unfortunately, will throw a monkey wrench into the world’s efforts to mitigate climate change.  But it cannot stop what has become a powerful global trend.

In the words of U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres: “Renewable energy is powering down the fossil fuel age.”

According to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency, renewables accounted for 92% of new power capacity worldwide last year.  Solar is by far the fastest-growing form of renewable power, accounting for 77% of new capacity.

In the U.S., renewables accounted for about 90% of new installed capacity in 2024.  The country added nearly 40 GW of solar power capacity as well as 5 GW of wind power.  Renewables now make up about 30% of the country’s large-scale power generating capacity.  Adding in all carbon-free electricity sources (which include nuclear power), nearly 44% of the country’s electricity was carbon-free.

Headwinds against the growth of renewable energy are getting stronger in the US, but the global trend driven by both economics and environmental concerns is powerful and will continue.  For one thing, in much of the world, solar power is simply the cheapest way to produce electricity and that is pretty difficult to ignore. Global trade wars and economic turmoil will impact renewable energy much as they will other industries, but the long-term trend is clear.

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Renewables Made Up More Than 90 Percent of New Power Installed Globally Last Year

Photo, posted November 23, 2022, courtesy of John Morton via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A giant solar project for Google

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One of the largest solar projects in the US has recently come online in Texas.  Three solar farms built side-by-side in Buckholts, Texas by SB Energy can provide 875 megawatts of electricity, nearly the size of a typical nuclear power plant.  The project will supply the largest solar energy purchase ever made by Google and the electricity generated will be used to power its new operations in the area.  Google will use about 85% of the project’s solar power for data centers in Ellis County and for cloud computing in the Dallas Region.

In total, Google has contracted with clean energy developers to bring more than 2,800 megawatts of new wind and solar projects to Texas.  Google expects to spend $16 billion through 2040 to purchase clean energy for its global operations.

According to the International Energy Agency, data centers’ total electricity consumption could reach more than 1,000 terawatt-hours in 2026, which is more than double the amount used in 2022.  One terawatt-hour is enough energy to power 70,000 homes for a year.  So, it is not surprising that large technology companies are investing heavily in energy technologies.

Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have all recently announced investments in nuclear energy to power data centers.  These companies all have made commitments to seek sources of carbon-free electricity to power their data centers and their increasing efforts in artificial intelligence.  Because of the rise of artificial intelligence, the large companies are not meeting their commitments to reduce their carbon emissions and are needing to greatly increase their efforts to obtain clean power.

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One of the largest solar projects in the US opens in Texas, backed by Google

Photo, posted March 27, 2016, courtesy of Ben Nuttall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

New approaches to nuclear power

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The US is the world’s largest user of nuclear power.  Its 94 reactors supply nearly 19% of the country’s electricity. But the number of U.S. reactors has steadily fallen over the past 30 years and new nuclear power plants are a real rarity.  The reasons are a combination of perceived dangers following several nuclear accidents and the increasing costs associated with building plants that can meet a growing number of regulatory requirements.

There are recent developments associated with new advanced reactor technologies that may lead to a resurgence in the use of nuclear power.  Bill Gates’ energy company TerraPower is developing nuclear reactors that use sodium instead of water for cooling.  Such reactors operate at lower pressures and higher temperatures.  

Meanwhile, Kairos Power, a California-based energy company, has entered into an agreement with Google to build multiple small modular nuclear reactors that will supply electricity to that giant tech company.  The modular reactors use a molten-salt cooling system combined with a ceramic, pebble-type fuel in order to transport heat to a steam turbine to generate power.  The novel design of these reactors can reduce construction timelines, allow deployment in more places, and make final project delivery more predictable.

Surveys indicate that a majority of Americans favor the use of nuclear power, which has the advantages that it doesn’t create greenhouse gas emissions and can run 24-7.  But traditional nuclear power plants are too expensive and have too many potential problems.  These new nuclear power technologies may be the answer for allowing nuclear power to play an important role in the future energy system.

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New nuclear clean energy agreement with Kairos Power

Photo, posted May 16, 2016, courtesy of Steve Jurvetson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Expanding solar and wind in the U.S.

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According to new data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, solar and wind now make up more than 20% of the total US electrical generating capacity.  Adding up all renewable energy sources – which also include biomass, geothermal, and hydropower – renewable energy is now nearly 30% of the total electrical generating capacity in this country.

During the first five months of 2024, 10.669 gigawatts of solar and 2.095 gigawatts of wind power came online.  There were also 212 megawatts of hydropower and 3 megawatts of biomass added to generating capacity.  All told, renewables constituted 89.91% of new generating capacity added this year.  This does not include 1.1 gigawatts of nuclear power added at the Vogtle-4 reactor in Georgia. 

Solar power is booming.  The amount added this year was more than double the amount added over the same period last year.  Solar has been the largest source of new generating capacity for nine months straight.  Wind was the second largest.

About one-third of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale – that is, rooftop – solar.  The statistics quoted in this report do not take that into account.  If it was included, solar plus wind would be closer to 25% of the US total.

Predictions are that over the next three years, nearly 90 gigawatts of additional solar power will be added to the grid as well as 23 gigawatts of wind power.  Over that period, coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to shrink by more than 20 gigawatts.

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Solar and wind now make up more than 20% of US electrical generating capacity

Photo, posted October 28, 2016, courtesy of Daxis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Clean energy investment at record levels

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According to a new study by the International Energy Agency, global clean energy investment will be nearly twice that of fossil fuels this year.  The surging funding for clean energy is being driven by a combination of lower costs for renewable energy and by improving supply chains.

In 2024, the world’s investments in energy are expected to surpass $3 trillion dollars for the first time.  About $2 trillion of that will be directed at green technologies that include renewable power sources, grids, and energy storage; electric vehicles; low-emission fuels; nuclear power; and heat pumps and efficiency improvements.  The remaining amount of just over $1 trillion will fund oil, gas, and oil projects.

The record growth in clean energy investments is taking place in spite of challenging economic conditions related to high interest rates, which demonstrates the momentum behind the global energy transition.

The IEA report does caution that there are big imbalances and shortages in energy investment in various places around the world.  For example, there is a low amount of green energy spending in developing and emerging economies outside of China.  Countries like Brazil and India are leading the way for this sector by having investments in excess of $300 billion.

More money is currently going into solar power development than all other electricity generation technologies combined.  In 2024, solar photovoltaic power investment is set to grow to $500 billion as the falling price of solar modules spurs new investments.

The largest renewable investments will come from China at $675 billion, followed by Europe and the U.S. at $370 billion and $315 billion, respectively.

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Global Clean Energy Investment Will Nearly Double That of Fossil Fuels in 2024: IEA Report

Photo, posted October 2, 2015, courtesy of John Englart via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables Will Overtake Coal | Earth Wise

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According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, worldwide growth in renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years.  In fact, by 2027, the world will add as much renewable power as it did over the previous 20 years.

Of particular significance is that renewables are going to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has had multiple effects on the evolution of the energy system.  While the war has driven a resurgence in fossil fuel consumption in Europe in order to replace gas from Russia, that resurgence is expected to be short-lived.  Instead, the current energy crisis may turn out to be an historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system.

Soaring fossil-fuel prices triggered by the war have caused many countries to respond by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps.  In the US, Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for clean energy technologies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.  China, India, South Korea, and Japan have all increased their national targets for renewable power.   However, heating and cooling buildings with renewable power remains a sector needing larger improvement, according to the energy agency.

Overall, the expansion of renewable power over the next five years is now projected to happen much faster than what was projected just one year ago. The new IEA report revised last year’s forecast for renewables growth by 30% as a result of the introduction of new policies by many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters.

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Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

Photo, posted March 8, 2021, courtesy of Stanze via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Solar Parking Lots In France | Earth Wise

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France has passed legislation that will require all parking lots with more than 80 spaces to be covered over by solar panels.  This is part of a broader effort to put solar panels on vacant lots, empty land alongside roadways and train tracks, and even some farmland.  The overall program would add 11 gigawatts of solar power to the French electricity grid.

The legislation applies to both new and existing parking lots.  Owners of parking lots with more than 400 spaces would have 3 years to comply, while owners of lots with 80 to 400 spaces would have five years.

To produce 11 gigawatts of solar output, about half a percent of France’s urban land would need to be covered with solar panels.  This is quite a bit, but not an insurmountable obstacle.  Parking lots, however, could only provide a fraction of what is needed.  It would take something like 8 million parking spaces covered with solar panels to produce that much power.  That is probably at least twice as many as France has.

Several countries, most notably Germany, already have mandates for new construction to incorporate renewable energy.  This includes solar panels, biomass boilers, heat pumps, and wind turbines.  Many parking lots in southern Europe already have sunshades over them, which would make it pretty easy to install solar panels.  This is much rarer in cooler countries.

France is pursuing this policy to reduce its dependence on nuclear power, which currently provides 70% of the country’s electricity.  Apart from the general trend of opposition to nuclear power, reliance upon it during increasingly common droughts is problematic as the power plants require significant amounts of water to operate.

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France’s plan for solar panels on all car parks is just the start of an urban renewable revolution

Photo, posted February 11, 2008, courtesy of Armando Jimenez / U.S. Army Environmental Command via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Record Renewable Use In California | Earth Wise

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California, the most populous state, is the second largest electricity user.  Only Texas, the second most populous state, uses more energy, in part because it consumes large amounts in refining fossil fuels. Overall, California uses about 8% of the electricity generated in the U.S.

Thus, it was a significant milestone when briefly, on April 3, a record 97.6% of the energy on California’s statewide grid came from renewable energy resources.  (The previous record of 96.4% was set just a few days earlier).

Renewable energy’s share of the power typically peaks in the spring when mild temperatures keep demand relatively low and higher sun angles drive greater solar energy production.

On April 8, a record peak solar power production was set at 13,628 megawatts just after noon.  On March 4, the state set an all-time wind generation record of 6,265 megawatts. 

California now has over 15,000 MW of grid-connected solar power and 8,000 MW of wind.  Another 600 MW of solar and 200 MW of wind are coming online by June.  The state also has about 2,700 MW of energy storage online and that will climb to 4,000 MW by June.

In 2020, 34.5% of the state’s retail electricity sales came from wind and solar sources.  Adding in hydropower and nuclear power, nearly 60% of the state’s electricity came from non-fossil fuel.  Despite the effects of drought on hydropower generation and the impact of the pandemic on the pace of renewable energy projects, California continues its dramatic transition to sustainable energy.

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Solar and wind notched records as renewables met California’s energy demand

Photo, posted September 20, 2016, courtesy of Tom Brewster Photography / BLM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Peak Natural Gas Generation | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance (the IEEFA), the U.S. most likely hit its peak usage of natural gas to generate electricity in 2020.  Growth in wind and solar power are beginning to erode the use of natural gas.

At the moment, natural gas prices are unusually high as a result of supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine.  The U.S. is shipping record amounts of gas to Europe in order to help allies to wean off of Russian gas imports.  As a result, U.S. natural gas prices are at their highest level in more than 13 years.  Heating bills in the Northeast have been exceptionally high this past winter.

These high gas prices have also thrown a temporary lifeline to coal, which has seen a recent surge.  Despite this, coal in the U.S. is continuing its long-term decline.  Several of the largest power companies – including the Tennessee Valley Authority, Duke Energy, and Georgia Power – are planning to phase out coal entirely by 2035 and shift to renewable power.

The surging prices in fossil fuels – at the gas pump and in the home – along with multiple disruptions in energy security, are supercharging the already rapid pace of growth in solar, wind, and battery energy storage projects.

Wind, solar, and hydropower currently account for about 20% of U.S. power generation.  According to the IEEFA, these renewable sources could provide more than a third of our power by 2027.  Including both renewables and nuclear power plants, the U.S. could generate more than half of its electricity from carbon-free sources by that year, which represents a massive transition from just five years ago.

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U.S. May Have Hit Peak Natural Gas Power Generation, Report Says

Photo, posted July 11, 2017, courtesy of John Ciccarelli / BLM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Danger Of Relying On Future Technology | Earth Wise

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The need to mitigate the effects of climate change has been a global focus for about 40 years and has seen ever-changing views on what actions are needed.  The historical record has been defined by over-reliance on promises of new technology to solve climate change.  Looking to future technology to save the environment has been an excuse to postpone necessary action and avoid inconvenient changes in how we do things.

A study at Lancaster University in the UK published in Nature Climate Change exposes how such promises have raised expectations of more effective policy options becoming available in the future and have enabled the continued politics of inadequate action and skirting around the truth.

Even after four decades, rather than acting forcefully to reduce emissions, we are hoping that nuclear fusion power, giant carbon sucking machines, ice-restoration using vast numbers of wind-powered pumps, and spraying particulates into the atmosphere can address the climate crisis rather than dramatic changes in fossil fuel use.

The researchers mapped the history of climate targets in five phases.  Early on, the focus was on improved energy efficiency, large-scale enhancement of carbon sinks, and nuclear power.  Next, the focus was on cutting emissions with efficiency, fuel switching, and carbon capture and storage.  After that, bioenergy was the major focus.  Then, global carbon budgeting and potential negative emission technologies.  Currently, the focus is on temperature outcomes rather than emission targets.

Each novel promise competes with existing ideas and downplays any sense of urgency.   The researchers conclude that putting our hopes on yet more new technologies is unwise.  The time to act is now.

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Why relying on new technology won’t save the planet

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coronavirus And European Energy | Earth Wise

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As people all over the world shelter in place and much ordinary commerce and other activities have ground to a halt, there have been big changes in energy usage.   With production halted, offices shut down, schools closed, and public transport operated on reduced timetables, the demand for energy has decreased dramatically.

In Europe, as a result of all this, during the first quarter of this year, renewables’ share of total energy production was greater than 60%.  Wind farms provided more than 40% of the renewables’ share of total electricity generation.   During February, Denmark, Germany and Ireland saw nearly 50% of their electricity demand met with wind power.  Hydroelectric power was the second largest source of renewable energy during the first quarter, with Norway providing the largest share of this.  In contrast, generation from nuclear plants was at its lowest first quarter figure for the past five years.

The large shift to renewable generation was in great part due to the overall reduction in demand.  This impacts nuclear and fossil-fuel generation much more than renewables because those plants can be throttled back or shut down entirely so as not to needlessly consume costly fuels.   Generation that runs on sunlight, wind, or flowing water does not require fuel expenses, so it makes sense to prefer them when demand is reduced.

The reduction in demand has in turn had a major effect on fuel costs as oil reached low prices that haven’t been seen in years.

The decline in demand and fuel prices and the enhanced role of renewables are expected to continue in the current quarter as the timetable for renewed economic activity remains unknown.

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Renewables achieve clean energy record as COVID-19 hits demand

Photo, posted June 25, 2010, courtesy of Martin Abegglen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

More Renewables Without Storage In Texas

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Texas has a Texas-sized appetite for electricity and relies most heavily on natural gas, coal and nuclear power to get it.  But in recent times, wind power has grown tremendously in the Lone Star State and it has already leapfrogged past nuclear power.  Coal could be the next domino to fall.

In the past few years, solar power has become competitive with wind in terms of price.  Texas is a large, coastal state in the sunny southwestern U.S. and has significant solar resources.  As a result, the amount of solar power in Texas is now growing rapidly.

In order for a combination of solar and wind power to address the bulk of electricity demand in Texas, there needs to be a way to provide reliability that these intermittent sources don’t necessarily provide.  Energy storage is a solution that ultimately is likely to be part of most electricity grids, but currently it is still expensive on a utility scale.

A new study from Rice University looked at the complementarity of solar and wind power in Texas.  Complementarity refers to balancing the output of solar and wind systems.  The peak performance of wind and solar occurs at very different times in different regions of the state.  The study suggests that the right mix of solar and wind systems in the right parts of Texas could provide a continuously reliable energy system.  On both a yearly and daily basis, wind and solar power resources in Texas complement each other in terms of peak performance.  It is a matter of locating the solar power and wind farms in the right places.

With the Texas solar industry really starting to boom, there is a real opportunity to integrate far more renewable energy into the Texas grid.

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More Renewables with Less Energy Storage: Texas Shows How

Photo, posted June 8, 2018, courtesy of Laura Lee Dooley via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Emissions From Electric Buses

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Municipalities and transit agencies are gradually replacing conventional diesel buses with cleaner alternatives such as natural-gas-powered, diesel-electric hybrid, or fully electric buses.  The goal is to reduce the substantial carbon emissions associated with buses as well as reducing unhealthy air pollution. Diesel buses on average get less than 5 miles per gallon as they transport passengers around, so there is plenty of motivation to find more efficient ways to power them.

[Read more…] about Emissions From Electric Buses

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