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How warm is It?

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As of June, the world had seen 13 consecutive months of record-breaking heat.  The average global temperature over the last 12 of those months measured 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the preindustrial era. This means that the world has at least temporarily exceeded the temperature target set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Does this mean that climate change has gotten to the point where keeping temperatures below that goal is no longer possible? Not necessarily. Temperatures could drop below the 1.5-degree level in the near future.

The world has certainly been warming as a result of climate change, but the spike in temperature for the past year has also been driven by an El Niño condition in the Pacific, which leads to warmer temperatures.  How much of the warming is a result of each factor is not known.

But scientists say that El Niño has ended in June and a La Niña condition is likely to take shape between August and October. This would lead to cooler temperatures in many places.

Despite the extensive and lingering heatwaves in the US in July, on a global scale, temperatures have actually started falling in July.  July may end up being the first month since June 2023 to not set a new monthly global temperature record.  Nevertheless, the long streak of record-high temperatures is no statistical anomaly.  It is indicative of a large and continuing shift in the climate.   Whether conditions in the Pacific produce an El Niño or a La Niña, the steady long-term warming will continue as long as human-generated carbon emissions continue.

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How Bad Is Warming? La Niña May Reveal

Photo, posted September 19, 2022, courtesy of Paul Sableman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record energy transition investments

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Global investment in the energy transition – that is, the transition away from fossil fuels – increased by 17% in 2023, reaching a new high of $1.8 trillion dollars.  That number includes spending on electric vehicles and their associated infrastructure, electrification of the power grid, and various other changes to the energy system.

Electrified transport was the largest sector for spending, accounting for $634 billion dollars.  This figure includes spending on electric cars, trucks, buses, two- and three-wheeler, and commercial vehicles, as well as charging stations and other associated infrastructure.

The renewable energy sector – including wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuel power plants – accounted for $623 billion.  The third largest investment was $310 billion in power grid investments.

China spent the most of any country by a large margin, investing $676 billion. The EU, U.S., and UK combined accounted for $718 billion. 

These numbers reflect the rapid growth of clean energy across the globe and are obviously quite large.  However, the pace at which clean energy technology is growing is not fast enough to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century that most countries have set.  By many accounts, energy transition investments would need to average $4.8 trillion per year for the rest of the decade to be on track.  This is about 5.6% of the global gross domestic product that is currently about $85 trillion per year.  By comparison, the U.S. currently spends about 5.7% of its GDP on energy.

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Energy transition investments hit record $1.8 trillion in 2023

Photo, posted November 22, 2008, courtesy of Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Positive tipping points and climate

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We often hear about tipping points and climate change.  Tipping points are critical thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating, and often irreversible changes.  Some of the ones of concern with the climate are thawing permafrost, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and global temperatures reaching certain levels.  These are all tipping points that are essential to avoid.

A study published in the journal One Earth by researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK contends that in order to avoid the severe consequences of climate change, we need to trigger some positive tipping points.

Many climate-friendly changes are happening too slowly.  Triggering positive tipping points is a way to rapidly reach the high levels of decarbonization required to avoid triggering the negative tipping points of great concern.

Reaching a positive tipping point is a way that beneficial changes can rapidly gain momentum.  One example is the adoption of electric vehicles.  It has clearly reached a tipping point across Scandinavia and has happened rapidly.  Norway has managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to nearly 90% in less than 10 years.  At some point, everybody wanted an electric car.  This is evidence that positive tipping points can happen.

Many of the other forms of decarbonization need to move from their current level of adoption to rapid expansion.  A combination of affordability, attractiveness, availability, and political will are needed to trigger tipping points.  Exactly what those tipping point are is not necessarily known, but unless something accelerates the current pace of change, it will be very difficult to prevent negative climate tipping points from changing the world in destructive ways.

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Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis

Photo, posted July 8, 2023, courtesy of Michael Swan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Offshore wind in the U.S. at last

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There have been large offshore wind farms in Europe for over 30 years.  Five Asian countries have had offshore wind installations for 7 years, with China now leading the world in total installed capacity.   The United States has been talking about offshore wind power for a long time and has been moving toward actually installing it in fits and starts.

As of early December, there is finally a wind turbine off the coast of eastern Long Island that has begun sending electricity onto the U.S. grid.  The South Fork Wind Farm will soon have 12 turbines generating 132 megawatts of offshore wind energy to power more than 70,000 homes.

Meanwhile, the first five turbines for the Vineyard Wind I project off the coast of Massachusetts have been installed and will be sending 65 megawatts of power to the electric grid in Massachusetts just weeks after the New York installation turned on.

Vineyard Wind I is planned to expand into a 62-turbine, 806-megawatt project when fully operational.  That is enough electricity to power an estimated 400,000 homes and businesses.

There are multiple offshore wind projects in various stages of development along the eastern seaboard.  There are also various projects in the planning stages on the west coast, where the deep seabeds require the use of much more challenging floating turbine installations.

While it is encouraging to see that offshore wind is finally happening here in the United States, it is sobering to realize that there is more than 63 thousand megawatts of offshore wind power capacity installed globally comprising more than 11,000 turbines.  We have a lot of catching up to do.

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Decades after Europe, South Fork Wind sends first commercial wind power onto US grid

First five turbines installed at Vineyard Wind 1

Photo, posted June 14, 2022, courtesy of Stephen Boutwell/BOEM via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Large Lakes In Decline | Earth Wise

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Globally, freshwater lakes and reservoirs hold 87% of the planet’s liquid freshwater, making them a valuable resource for both people and wildlife.  Despite their value, the long-term trends and changes to water levels of lakes have been largely unknown – until now.

According to a new assessment recently published in the journal Science, more than half of the largest lakes around the world are losing water.  Using satellite observations and climate data, the research team created a technique to measure changes in water levels in nearly 2,000 of the world’s biggest lakes and reservoirs, representing 95% of the total lake water storage on Earth.

The results are staggering.  According to the findings, 53% of Earth’s largest lakes and reservoirs now store significantly less water than they did in 1992.  The total amount of water lost is estimated to be 144.5 cubic miles, which is equivalent to the volume of 17 Lake Meads (the largest reservoir in the U.S.). 

Unsurprisingly, climate warming and human consumption were the main drivers of water loss from lakes, whereas sedimentation — the buildup of debris — was the biggest driver of water loss in reservoirs.  Roughly one-quarter of the world’s population – two billion people – live in the basin of a drying lake, indicating the urgent need for sustainable water resources management.

But the news is not entirely bleak.  According to the research team, the new method of tracking lake water storage trends can give water managers and communities insight into how to better protect this critical resource. 

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Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage

Photo, posted February 10, 2010, courtesy of Ninara via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Humanity Weighs On The World | Earth Wise

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There are countless ways in which humankind has had disproportionate effects on our planet and most of those effects have been negative.  A recent study led by the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel looked at the total combined weight of various groups of mammals on Earth.  The results are that human beings and our domesticated mammals are the overwhelming majority of the total mass of mammals.

We think of large land mammals – elephants, bears, bison, wildebeests, and so on – as adding up to a massive amount of animal matter.  The study determined that all wild land mammals put together add up to about 22 million metric tons. Wild marine mammals – such as dolphins and whales – add up to about 40 million tons in total.  These sound like pretty big numbers until we look at the human and human-created side of the equation.

The study found that humans weigh about 390 million metric tons, while domesticated mammals – like sheep, cows, and pigs as well as dogs and cats – weigh about 630 million metric tons combined.

All told, wild mammals account for only 6% of all mammals by weight.   People and their domesticated animals make up the other 94%.  This enormous imbalance is an indication of how profoundly humans have reshaped life on Earth.  House cats total twice the weight of African elephants and pigs add up to twice the weight of all wild land animals combined.

The conclusion to draw from the big picture here is that wild animals on Earth are not doing very well.  We already knew this from many other perspectives, but this census by weight presents a stark picture of the extent to which we have taken over the planet and its ecosystems.

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Total Weight of Wild Land Mammals Less Than One-Tenth Weight of All Humans

Photo, posted December 27, 2006, courtesy of Nigel Hoult via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Return Of The Fin Whale | Earth Wise

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The fin whale is the second largest whale species and therefore the second largest creature on Earth.  They can grow to more than 80 feet in length.  From 1904 to 1976, there was massive industrial whaling in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica.  During that period, whalers killed about 700,000 fin whales, reducing their population by 99%.  The species was nearly extinct.

In 1982, the International Whaling Commission voted to ban commercial whaling.  Since that time, fin whales started to make a comeback in their historical feeding grounds.

During a nine-week expedition in the waters around the Antarctic Peninsula, researchers encountered the largest gathering of fin whales ever documented.  About 150 fin whales were seen diving and lunging against the water’s surface.  It was a feeding frenzy triggered by large amounts of krill in the water.  The actions of the whales are known as a “whale pump” that drives the krill to the surface.  Not only does it provide huge amounts of food for the whales but also for other animals, including seabirds and seals.

Forty years after the commercial whaling ban, the number of fin whales has been increasing.  Large groups were observed in a 2013 survey.  Aerial surveys in 2018 and 2019 recorded 100 groups of fin whales, usually composed of a just a handful of individuals.  They did document eight large groups of up to 150 individuals.

Not all species of whales have rebounded so successfully since the whaling ban.  The rebound in fin whale population is not only good for the whales, but for the entire ecosystem in the Southern Ocean.  It is a glimmer of good news in a time of great challenges for global biodiversity and for marine life in particular.

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Once Facing Extinction, Massive Fin Whales Have Returned to Antarctic Waters

Photo, posted November 15, 2007, courtesy of Gregory Smith via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Lake Tuz Is Disappearing | Earth Wise

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Lake Tuz is Turkey’s second-largest lake and one of the world’s largest hypersaline lakes.  Its high salt content makes it an ideal breeding ground for some migratory bird species, including flamingos, which are often present there in huge numbers in the spring and summer.

Now, Lake Tuz rarely spans an area much larger than a puddle. In some summers, it completely dries up.  It did so this past summer, which resulted in the deaths of thousands of flamingos.

According to experts, Lake Tuz is a victim of climate change-induced drought, which has hit the region hard, and decades of harmful agricultural policies that exhausted the underground water supply.

Water in this region has become increasingly scarce.  The Mediterranean Basin has already seen more frequent and intense droughts, and is considered a climate change hotspot. 

According to new research, which was recently published in the journal Regional Environmental Change, Lake Tuz generally contained enough water in August for the lake to be considered permanent up until 2000.  But between 2001 and 2016, something shifted.  Water spanned less than 20% of the lake in every August except for one, and droughts became more frequent and intense. And in some years, the lake completely dried up.   

What caused this change?  According to the research team, Lake Tuz’s decline coincided with the excessive use of groundwater and surface water resources responsible for feeding the lake.  Some streams were rerouted for agricultural purposes, while others were dammed.  And when surface water sources dwindled, people turned to groundwater that historically fed the springs in Lake Tuz. 

Lake Tuz may be on the brink of extinction. 

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Impact of climate variability on the surface of Lake Tuz (Turkey), 1985–2016

Disappearing Lake Tuz

Photo, posted August 16, 2021, courtesy of Godot via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Large Solar Projects In The U.S. | Earth Wise

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The United States now has over 108 gigawatts of total solar generating capacity, which is enough to power about 19 million homes.  There are more than 3 million solar installations across the country, the majority of which are residential systems.

The growth in solar power has been enormous over the past 13 years.  In 2008, the total solar capacity in the U.S. was 0.34 gigawatts.

In recent times, utility-scale solar installations have been on the rise.  At least 10 systems in excess of 100 megawatts have come online just in 2021.  These systems have been built in Georgia, Ohio, California, Texas, and Nevada.  Other large installations have come online in Virginia, Utah, Indiana, and Florida.  Overall, Texas has had the most new installations, followed by California and Florida.

The largest utility-scale solar project completed this year is the Eunice Solar Project in Andrew, Texas.  The 420-megawatt project is part of the Permian Energy Center which also features 40 megawatts of battery energy storage.

The pipeline for new utility-scale solar projects under construction includes more than 17 gigawatts, so there is strong continuing growth in the industry.

The Biden administration has proposed a blueprint for the nation to produce 45% of its electricity from solar power by 2050.  Currently, solar energy contributes about 4% of the country’s power.  Being able to produce almost half the country’s electricity from the sun by 2050 would require a vast transformation in technology and the energy industry.  Whether there is the political will and the wherewithal to achieve this remains to be seen.

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U.S. Solar Market Insight

Photo, posted March 7, 2019, courtesy of Hedgerow Inc via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Manatees And Pollution | Earth Wise

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Manatees are large, gentle, and curious marine mammals measuring up to 13 feet long and weighing up to 3,300 lbs.  There are three living species of manatees:  The Amazonian Manatee, the West African Manatee, and the West Indian Manatee, which is commonly found in Florida and the Gulf Coast.  Manatees inhabit the shallow, marshy coastal areas and rivers of the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic coast, the Amazon basin, and West Africa. 

The West Indian Manatee, which includes the Florida Manatee, is protected under the Endangered Species Act.  Today, the range-wide population is estimated to be at least 13,000 manatees, with more than 6,500 in the southeastern United States and Puerto Rico.

In Florida, an uptick in nutrient loading from nonpoint sources is triggering algal blooms in Indian River Lagoon and neighboring areas.  These algal blooms have decimated seagrass, manatees’ primary food source. 

As a result , manatees have starved to death by the hundreds along Florida’s east coast.  The state has recorded 974 manatee deaths in 2021, shattering previous annual all-time highs with still approximately two months to go.  Manatees, which need to eat between 100-200 pounds of seagrass daily, are now eating the seagrass roots, which permanently kills the aquatic plants.

Efforts are being made to replant seagrass and to restore clam and oyster beds so that the mollusks can help clean the water.  But manatees face a myriad of additional threats, including collisions with boats and ships, temperature changes, disease, and crocodile predation.

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Florida lawmakers hear Fish & Wildlife agency response to manatee death ‘catastrophe’

West Indian manatee

Preliminary 2021 Manatee Mortality Table by County

Photo, posted May 7, 2010, courtesy of Jim Reid/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Major Funding For Novel Energy Storage | Earth Wise

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The accelerating adoption of wind and solar energy is driving a growing interest in energy storage technologies.  An electric grid dominated by intermittent power sources will need large-scale energy storage.  Grid-scale energy storage is expected to increase at least 10 times over the next decade and this will require nearly $300 billion in investments over that time period.

Much of the effort in energy storage has focused on battery storage.  But there are other storage technologies that are attracting attention and investment.

Energy Vault is a Swiss-based company specializing in gravity and kinetic energy-based energy storage.  Their technology uses a multi-headed crane to store energy generated by renewable sources by stacking heavy blocks made of composite material into a tower, capturing potential energy from the elevation gain of the blocks.  To produce electricity, the crane lowers the blocks to the ground, driving generators in the process.  The company has just raised $100 million in funding from investors. 

Malta, Inc. is an energy storage company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts that is developing an electro-thermal energy storage system.  Energy generated from renewable (or other) sources drives a heat pump to create thermal energy producing both hot and cold reservoirs.  The heat is then stored in molten salt while the cold is stored in a chilled liquid.  To generate electricity, the temperature difference between the two reservoirs is used to drive a heat engine.  Malta has recently raised $60 million in new funding including significant support from Chevron Energy Ventures.

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Energy Vault Raises $100 Million In Series C Funding

Chevron backs long-duration thermal energy storage developer Malta

Photo, posted October 16, 2019, courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

What Does Conservation Really Mean? | Earth Wise

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There is a great deal of interest in protecting nature and, in many cases, restoring aspects of nature that have been lost.  But what do these things really mean?

What is most important?  Protecting iconic species?  Strengthening nature’s resilience?  Several recent scientific papers address these questions and come up with rather different answers.

It isn’t even clear what constitutes a pristine ecosystem.  According to some experts, ecosystems that have lost most of their large mammal species, for example, cannot be considered intact.  By that standard, only a tiny fraction of the world’s ecosystems remains intact.

Other experts contend that preserving individual species is not what really matters.  Studies have shown that many ecosystems have undergone and continue to undergo massive species shifts over time with frequent extinctions along the way.  Nevertheless, the ecosystems continue to flourish with new species replacing others to perform the various functions required.

Some perspectives consider intact ecosystems to be those devoid of human influence.  But that notion is not universally held.   There is the idea that most of the world’s ecosystems were essentially untouched until perhaps 500 years ago when European exploration expanded greatly.  But the reality is that even 12,000 years ago, nearly three-quarters of terrestrial nature was inhabited, used, and shaped by people.  However, those human interactions were similar to how many indigenous and local peoples across the globe still live, not like the interactions of modern civilization that result in massive changes to ecosystems.

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Species or Ecosystems: How Best to Restore the Natural World?

Photo, posted November 21, 2003, courtesy of Megan Coughlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Quiet In The Pandemic | Earth Wise

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The early months of the Covid-19 pandemic had dramatic effects on many aspects of our daily lives.  Vehicle traffic, air pollution, and many other aspects of modern life saw reduced levels not seen in decades.  It turns out that one of the things that saw reduced levels was people’s exposure to environmental noise.

According to University of Michigan researchers, daily average sound levels dropped in half during the time that local governments made announcements about social distancing and issued stay-at-home orders in March and April as compared to noise levels measured in January and February.

The data was acquired from the Apple Hearing Study, which looked at noise exposure data from volunteer Apple Watch users in Florida, New York, California, and Texas.  The analysis included more than half a million daily noise levels measured before and during the pandemic shutdown.

The noise reduction – 3 decibels, which is a factor of two in noise level – is considered to be quite large and could have a significant effect on people’s overall health outcomes over time.

The four states studied had differing responses in terms of stay-at-home orders.  Both California and New York both had really drastic reductions in sound that happened very quickly, whereas Florida and Texas had somewhat less of a reduction.

The study demonstrated the utility of everyday use of digital devices in evaluating daily behaviors and exposures.  This sort of analysis could allow researchers to begin describing what personal sound exposures are like for Americans who live in a certain state, or are of a certain age, or who do or don’t have hearing loss.  The Apple Hearing Study is continuing and is still accepting new participants.

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Stay-at-home orders cut noise exposure nearly in half

Photo, posted April 10, 2020, courtesy of Joey Zanotti via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Recovering Condors | Earth Wise

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The California condor is the largest North American land bird.  Its wingspan is nearly 10 feet and its weight of up to 26 pounds nearly equals that of the trumpet swan, the heaviest native North American bird.  California condors can live up to 60 years, making them among the world’s longest-living birds as well.  But California condors became extinct in the wild in 1987.

Lead poisoning is the primary threat to condors.  The birds are scavengers and feeding on the carcasses of dead animals that contain fragments of lead rifle ammunition is responsible for half of all condor deaths.

Condors historically occupied California’s Sierra Nevada mountains and were known to nest in the cavities of giant sequoia trees.  By 1982, the wild population was reduced to just 22 birds, and all of those were eventually trapped and brought into captivity to prevent extinction of the species.

A captive breeding program was undertaken at the Los Angeles Zoo and the San Diego Wild Animal Park.  With the success of that program, in 1992 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began releasing condors back into the wild in the mountains of Los Padres National Forest in Southern California.  That flock has grown to about 100 birds through both wild reproduction and additional release of captive-bred birds.

The Southern California flock continues to expand its range with birds in 8 California counties and even in Arizona, Utah, and Baja California in Mexico.  The total wild population of condors is now estimated to be about 340 birds.  Recently, condors have been spotted in Sequoia National Park, a part of its historic range where the birds have been absent for nearly 50 years.

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California Condors Spotted in Sequoia National Park, First Time in Nearly Half a Century

Photo, posted May 20, 2005, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Small Win For Coral

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The Belize Barrier Reef is the largest barrier reef system in the Northern Hemisphere.  It extends roughly 200 miles, and is made up of a series of coral reefs, cays and islands, many of which are covered with mangroves. It was designated a Unesco World Heritage Site in 1996, and added to its endangered list in 2009.  

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Whale Sharks

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Whale sharks are the largest fish in the sea.  They can grow more than 40 feet in length, weigh up to 47,000 lbs, and have a lifespan of about 70 years.  They can be found cruising in the open waters of tropical oceans.  But despite being enormous, whale sharks are no threat to humans.  The docile beasts, which feed almost exclusively on plankton, have often been referred to as “gentle giants.”

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California Condors

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The California condor is the largest North American land bird with a wingspan of about 10 feet.  During the 20th century, poaching, habitat loss and lead poisoning reduced the vulture’s population to fewer than two dozen.   The U.S. government’s response was to round up every last one of them over a period of 5 years-  a total of 27 birds – for a last-ditch captive breeding program.  As a result, technically the species became extinct in the wild at that point in 1987.   Reintroduction into the wild did not begin until 1991.

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