hurricanes

Wildfire Smoke And Global Weather | Earth Wise

June 1, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In 2019 and 2020, wildfires burned 72,000 square miles in Australia, roughly the same area as the entire country of Syria. During the nine months when the fires raged, persistent and widespread plumes of smoke filled the atmosphere.

These aerosols brightened a vast area of clouds above the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Beneath these clouds, the surface of the ocean and the atmosphere cooled. The effect of this was an unexpected and long-lasting cool phase of the Pacific’s La Niña-El Niño cycle.

A new modeling study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado quantified the extent to which aerosols from the Australian wildfires made clouds over the tropical Pacific reflect more sunlight back towards space. The resultant cooling shifted the cloud and rain belt known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward. These effects may have helped trigger the unusual three-year-long La Niña, which lasted from late 2019 through 2022.

The impacts of that La Niña included intensifying drought and famine in Eastern Africa and priming the Atlantic Ocean for hurricanes. 2020 was the most active tropical storm season on record, with 31 storm systems, including 11 that made landfall in the U.S.

The study highlights widespread multi-year climate impacts caused by an unprecedented wildfire season. The wildfires set off a chain of events that influenced weather far from where the fires occurred. In the future, climate experts will need to include the potential effects of wildfires in their forecasts.

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How Wildfire Smoke from Australia Affected Climate Events Around the World

Photo, posted December 19, 2019, courtesy of Simon Rumi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Flooding | Earth Wise

February 2, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Starting in December, a series of “atmospheric rivers” brought record storms to California producing as much rain in three weeks in some areas as they normally have in an entire year. The historic levels of rain (and snow in the mountains) have swollen rivers, flooded roads and homes, forced evacuations, knocked out electric power for millions of people, and resulted in more than 20 deaths.

Atmospheric rivers are air currents that carry large amounts of water vapor through the sky. They are not unusual for California but recurrent waves of them like those that have happened recently are very infrequent. Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that such a phenomenon recurs in California every 250 years. There were a series of storms causing disastrous floods in California in 1861-62.

The atmospheric rivers are born in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific. During La Nina phases, the atmospheric rivers typically make landfall on the northern West Coast. During El Nino phases, atmospheric rivers are more likely to end up in Southern and Central California. During transitions between the phases, as is happening now, the storms can cover large parts of the state.

Modern forecasting is pretty good at predicting the forthcoming occurrence of these storms and has led to some helpful actions, such as reservoir operators preventing dams from overflowing or bursting. But there is a gap between science and decision-making. It is pretty clear what needs to be done when tornados or hurricanes are on the way. It is less clear what actions are appropriate when there are going to be repeated heavy rainstorms.

These storms will have an effect on California’s megadrought, but just how much of an effect remains to be seen.

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Flooding in California: What Went Wrong, and What Comes Next

Photo, posted January 5, 2023, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Trouble For The Outer Banks | Earth Wise

August 9, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Outer Banks are a series of barrier islands off the coast of North Carolina that separate the Atlantic Ocean from the mainland. They are a very popular tourist destination featuring open-sea beaches, state parks, shipwreck diving sites, and historic locations such as Roanoke Island, the site of England’s first settlement in the New World. There is also Kitty Hawk, the site of the Wright Brothers’ first flights.

The ribbon of islands is nearly 200 miles long. Some of them are low and narrow and are only a few feet above sea level. Many are especially vulnerable to Nor’easters in the winter and hurricanes in the summer. The collision of warm Gulf Stream waters and the colder Labrador current helps to create dangerous shoals and some of the largest waves on the East Coast.

Over the years, developers have added billions of dollars’ worth of real estate to the Outer Banks. Rising sea levels and increasingly frequent storms threaten the barrier islands of the Outer Banks. Beach-front cottages have tumbled into the ocean for as long as people have built them in the Outer Banks but now they are falling at a greater rate and more and more are in danger.

The Department of Transportation has spent nearly $100 million dollars to keep NC12, the highway connecting the string of islands, open to traffic. Three new bridges built to traverse inlets opened by storms and bypassing rapidly eroding shorelines raised the cost by another half a billion dollars.

There are many other measures such as pumping sand into eroded areas going on in the Outer Banks, but ultimately, all of the measures may not be enough to deal with rising sea levels and more powerful storms.

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Shifting Sands: Carolina’s Outer Banks Face a Precarious Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2011, courtesy of NCDOT Communications via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Hurricanes In The Northeast | Earth Wise

February 9, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new study led by Yale University, more hurricanes are likely to hit Connecticut and the northeastern U.S. as global warming continues to increase temperatures in the region.

Hurricane Henri made landfall in August as a tropical storm on the Connecticut/Rhode Island border. In September 2020, subtropical storm Alpha made landfall in Portugal, the first subtropical or tropical cyclone ever observed to make landfall in the mainland of that country.

Tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons are typically intense and destructive in the lower latitudes.

The study concludes that violent storms could migrate northward in our hemisphere and southward in the southern hemisphere as a result of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The research predicts that tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years.

In Connecticut, Hurricane Henri was not the only tropical storm to affect the region in 2021. The remnants of Hurricane Ida brought damaging winds and torrential rain that felled trees and flooded streets and basements.

The northern expansion of such violent storms is going on as water levels in the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island Sound keep rising. Because of melting glaciers thousands of miles away, water levels in Long Island Sound could rise by as much as 20 inches by 2050, enough to submerge parts of Groton’s shore and cause regular flooding in roads and neighborhoods.

Future hurricane prediction is an inexact science, but the ongoing trends do not bode well for the region.

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More hurricanes likely to slam Connecticut and region due to climate change, says study

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate-Related Disasters | Earth Wise

January 27, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In early December, a series of tornadoes struck multiple states, killing nearly 100 people and producing widespread damage in whole communities. These storms were at least the 19th weather or climate disaster that caused more than $1 billion in damage during 2021. The year suffered from droughts, wildfires, severe cold snaps, hurricanes, and other severe weather incidents.

The Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania has been studying how communities can prepare for and bounce back from such disasters.

A key issue is that the location and timing of disasters continues to shift. Homeowners along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts know that they need to prepare for and deal with hurricanes. People who live in places like Oklahoma and Kansas are aware that tornadoes are a frequent threat. But in recent years, strong storms are happening in areas where historically they haven’t.

Places need to start implementing changes to their infrastructure now in order to have an impact on risk reduction.

Presidential disaster declarations are just one part of recovery from disasters. Other issues to grapple with are the role of government support and how it isn’t just the financial costs of disaster recovery but all the impact on human and other resources that are often not covered by governmental funds. There is also the issue that low- and moderate-income households are disproportionately harmed and locked out of financial resources for recovery.

The Wharton study points out that innovative approaches will be needed to effectively prepare communities and individuals for disasters to come.

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Preparing, and paying for, climate change-induced disasters

Photo, posted December 12, 2021, courtesy of State Farm via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Weather Disasters On The Rise | Earth Wise

November 1, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

It seems like the news is always filled with stories about storms, heatwaves, drought, and forest fires. This is because these things are happening with unprecedented frequency.

According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, weather disasters have become five times more common since 1970, in large part a result of climate change. Extreme weather, climate, and water events are increasing and are becoming more frequent and severe in many parts of the world.

Between 1970 and 2019, there were more than 11,000 reported disasters attributed to weather, resulting in over 2 million deaths and $3.64 trillion dollars in economic losses.

Storms and floods were the most prevalent disasters. The five costliest disasters ever are all hurricanes that have struck the United States over the past 20 years.

Droughts accounted for the greatest number of human losses, with severe droughts in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Sudan responsible for 650,000 deaths.

About the only positive news in the report was that even as disasters have grown more prevalent, deaths have declined, dropping from about 50,000 a year in the 1970s to fewer than 20,000 in the 2010s. This is a result of better early warning systems. We have gotten better at saving lives. But early warning systems are woefully insufficient in much of the developing world, where more than 90% of disaster-related deaths occur.

Of the 77 weather-related disasters that struck between 2015 and 2017, 62 show the influence of human-caused climate change. With the pace of climate change now accelerating, there are likely to be more frequent catastrophic disasters in the years to come.

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As the Planet Has Warmed, Weather Disasters Have Grown Fivefold, Analysis Shows

Photo, posted September 16, 2021, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Once In A Lifetime Floods And Climate Change | Earth Wise

January 8, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Superstorm Sandy was the deadliest hurricane of 2012 and one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit the United States. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Superstorm Sandy caused an estimated $74.1 billion dollars in damages. That figure made it the fourth-costliest storm in U.S. history, trailing only Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and hurricanes Harvey and Maria in 2017. Superstorm Sandy affected 24 states and all of the eastern seaboard.

New York was one of the states pummeled by Superstorm Sandy. The storm brought flood-levels to the region that had not been seen in generations. But according to a new study published in the journal Climatic Change, those flood levels could become much more common.

Researchers at Stevens Institute of Technology have found that 100-year and 500-year flood levels could become regular occurrences by the end of the century for the thousands of homes surrounding Jamaica Bay, NY. The researchers say climate change is the culprit.

Using anticipated greenhouse gas concentration levels, the research team created simulations to find the probability of different flood levels being reached by the end of the century. The researchers found that the historical 100-year flood level would become a one-year flood level by the year 2100. 500-year floods, like Superstorm Sandy, would become a four-year flood level by the end of the century.

While this particular study is specific to Jamaica Bay, it does serve as an example of just how severe and costly the consequences of climate change will be.

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Once in a lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Caribbean Coral Reefs Under Siege | Earth Wise

January 4, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Coral reefs around the world have been suffering from warming seas and increasing acidification, both a result of human activity. In the Caribbean, a new threat has emerged in the form of invasive algae.

New research published in Scientific Reports explains how an aggressive, crust-like alga is overgrowing shallow reefs and taking the place of coral that was damaged by powerful storms that exposed areas of the undersea rock where corals grew.

Researchers from Oxford University, the Carnegie Institution, and California State University Northridge have been studying these peyssonnelid algal crusts, or PACs, for several years in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The PAC has been out-competing coral larvae for surface space and then growing over the existing reef architecture, greatly damaging delicate reef ecosystems.

New corals actually prefer to settle on crusty surfaces created by a different type of algae called crustose algae, or CCA. CCA acts as guideposts for coral larvae by producing biochemical signals as part of a microbial community that entice baby coral to affix itself.

In contrast, the destructive PAC algae exclude coral settlement. The researchers determined that the microbial community associated with PAC algae is deployed to deter grazing from fish and other marine creatures. Unfortunately, it also deters coral.

Fragile coral ecosystems are already under assault by environmental pollution and global warming. Now, in the aftermath of powerful hurricanes like Irma and Maria, algal crusts are taking over reef communities and posing an existential threat to Caribbean corals.

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An unusual microbiome characterises a spatially-aggressive crustose alga rapidly overgrowing shallow Caribbean reefs

Photo, posted January 11, 2015, courtesy of Falco Ermert via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Hot Year Continues | Earth Wise

December 8, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s monthly global climate report for October reports yet another month of high temperatures. October 2020 was the fourth-hottest October on record, continuing the pace for the year to be the second hottest on record.

The 10 warmest Octobers have occurred since 2005 and the seven warmest have all occurred in the last seven years. Europe had its warmest October ever, surpassing the previous record set in 2001.

For the year to date, the global temperature was a full degree Celsius (or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th century average. This was just 0.03 Celsius degrees lower than the record set in 2016. Europe and Asia have had their warmest year-to-date period on record.

Other notable observations in the report included that Arctic sea ice coverage was almost 37% below the 1981-2010 average and was the smallest October coverage on record. The previous record was set last year.

Heat records were set around the world including parts of the northern and western Pacific Ocean, southern North America, South America, eastern Europe, the northern Middle East, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, southern Asia, and in small areas across the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Despite the record global temperatures, the Northern Hemisphere’s snow coverage in October was the 10th largest over the past 53 years. The snow coverage in North America was the largest on record for October.

Adding in the extremely active hurricane season, with 12 hurricanes and 29 tropical depressions, weather around the world continues to be anything but typical.

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Remarkably warm October fuels march toward 2nd-hottest year

Photo, posted February 8, 2016, courtesy of Jasmin Toubi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Fall Safety Tips | Earth Wise

November 4, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The fall season has its own weather-related hazards, such as raging wildfires across the West and a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic. There might even be snow in some places. The National Weather Service issued a set of four broad safety tips for being prepared for the dangers of fall weather.

With regard to wildfires, it is important for smokers to properly discard cigarettes, for people to avoid activities with open flames or sparks, and to use fire-resistant landscaping around our homes. The Weather Service issues Red Flag Warnings when conditions are ripe for wildfires.

In this busy hurricane season, even people who don’t live in hurricane surge evacuation areas need to know their home’s vulnerability to damage from high winds and inland flooding. People should have a plan that includes an emergency kit and a safe place to shelter should they need to evacuate.

It is important to have a plan in case strong winds pose a threat. When preparing for an extreme wind event, secure objects that can be tossed or rolled, trim trees near homes, and have a plan in case of an extended power failure. Strong winds can even happen on a clear day.

The key advice in case you encounter flood waters is “turn around, don’t drown.” It is never safe to walk or drive into a flooded roadway. It is best to delay travel until roads are clear.

Fall can be the most beautiful season of the year, but it also has its dangers. Following advice such as that provided by the Weather Service is prudent and potentially life-saving.

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Four safety tips for fall hazards: Small actions can have big impacts

Photo, posted October 30, 2014, courtesy of Virginia State Parks via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Changing Climate Is Changing Insurance

October 21, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

As the climate changes, wildfires get bigger and more destructive and hurricanes and powerful storms are more frequent and damaging. In places where these things are occurring, it is getting harder and more expensive for many homeowners to get insurance. The affordability of home insurance in the face of climate change has become a huge issue in many states.

In California, the number of homeowners who got non-renewal notices from their insurance companies rose by 6% between 2017 and 2018. In areas directly affected by wildfires between 2015 and 2017, that number jumped by 10%. Similar things have happened in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, where hurricanes and flooding have caused extensive damage. Because of this, many homeowners have been forced to turn to bare-bone plans such as the California Fair Access to Insurance Plan, which can cost two or three times as much as normal insurance policies.

According to a 2019 survey of insurance companies, more than half of insurance regulators said that climate change was likely to have a high impact or an extremely high impact on the availability of insurance coverage and the assumptions used for underwriting. In the past, governments have been able to mandate coverage in certain areas or even provide coverage themselves in some cases. As the occurrence of climate-related damage becomes increasingly frequent, homeowners have to face up to a grim reality.

The challenges of dealing with wildfires, floods, powerful storms, and the like are significant enough for people who live in high-risk areas. Increasingly, home insurance in these places is becoming much more expensive, harder to find, and is worth less.

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As Climate Impacts Worsen, Homeowners Struggle to Find Affordable Insurance

Photo, posted September 1, 2020, courtesy of The National Guard via Flickr.

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Expensive And Dangerous Storms | Earth Wise

August 7, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Severe storms are getting more and more common. Early in July, the United States experienced its 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year – the earliest this has happened. It also marks 2020 as the sixth consecutive year with at least 10 such extreme weather events, which is also a record. With the country struggling with the effects of a global pandemic, extreme weather is pretty much the last thing we need.

This year’s 10 storms have primarily consisted of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. Seven out of the 10 storms were in the South or Southeast. An Easter Sunday outbreak in that region saw 190 tornadoes and 36 people were killed that day.

Since 1980, the US has averaged nearly 7 billion-dollar weather disasters per year. But the last five years have seen nearly 14 severe storms on average. The way things are going this year, there will probably be more than that number.

This year’s growing total does not include the looming hurricane season, which is widely predicted to be more active than usual. Because so many places in the South are still recovering from earlier disasters, they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of an active hurricane season.

Meanwhile, much of the country is suffering from drought conditions, making wildfires a major concern. Recent years have seen deadly and destructive wildfires in many places, notably in California two years ago. Between hurricanes and wildfires, the prospects are alarming for what could turn out to be a disastrous year for expensive and dangerous severe weather.

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US hits 10th billion-dollar weather disaster of the year — at a record pace

Photo, posted March 3, 2020, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Side Effects Of Geoengineering | Earth Wise

July 20, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

As the world struggles to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the global climate, some researchers are exploring proposals to deliberately engineer climate changes to counteract the warming trend. One of the most widely discussed approaches is to shade the Earth from a portion of the sun’s heat by injecting the stratosphere with reflective aerosol particles. Proponents of this idea point out that volcanoes do essentially the same thing, although generally for only a limited amount of time. Particularly large eruptions, such as the Krakatowa eruption of 1883, wreaked havoc with weather around the world for an entire year.

Schemes to launch reflective aerosols – using planes, balloons, and even blimps – appear to be quite feasible from the standpoint of physically accomplishing them. But this says nothing about the political, ethical, and societal issues involved. The point is that such an approach could indeed lower global temperatures and thereby potentially offset the warming effects of greenhouse gases.

A study by scientists at MIT looked at what other effects such a solar geoengineering project might have on the climate. Their modeling concluded that it would significantly change storm tracks in the middle and high latitudes. These tracks give rise to cyclones, hurricanes, and many more ordinary weather phenomena.

According to the study, the northern hemisphere would have weakened storm tracks, leading to less powerful winter storms, but also stagnant conditions in summer and less wind to clear away air pollution. In the southern hemisphere, there would be more powerful storm tracks.

Aside from turning the world’s weather patterns inside out, solar geoengineering would do nothing to address the serious issue of ocean acidification caused by increasing carbon dioxide levels.

As many have pointed out, playing the geoengineering game would have many unintended consequences.

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Study: Reflecting sunlight to cool the planet will cause other global changes

Photo courtesy of MIT.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Dust From The Sahara | Earth Wise

July 9, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

A vast cloud of dust from the Sahara Desert blanketed the Caribbean in late June before drifting across the southeastern U.S. The phenomenon is nothing new; only the magnitude of the occurrence this time around was unusual. According to experts, this is the most significant Sahara dust event in 50 years.

The Sahara Desert is the major source on Earth of mineral dust, with some 60-200 million tons of it per year being lifted into the atmosphere. Convection currents over hot desert areas lift the dust to very high altitudes. From there, it can be transported worldwide by winds. The dust, combined with the extremely hot, dry air of the Sahara Desert often forms an atmospheric layer called the Saharan Air Layer, which can have significant effects on tropical weather by interfering with the development of hurricanes. The Saharan Air Layer typically moves across the North Atlantic every three to five days from late spring to early fall, peaking in the middle of the summer. It can occupy a layer as much as two miles thick in the atmosphere.

The dust plume this summer was highly visible from space, covering thousands of miles of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

A common effect of Sahara dust is that normally blue skies can acquire a milky haze, but beyond that can lead to spectacular sunsets. But apart from the visual spectacle, the dust can aggravate the conditions of people with asthma, respiratory illnesses, and allergies. On the positive side, as long as the dust is around, it is much less likely that tropical storms and hurricanes will form.

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Sahara dust blankets Caribbean, air quality hazardous

Photo, posted June 22, 2020, courtesy of Sagar Rana via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

December 2, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901. Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer. Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline. Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles. There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015. These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Which Cities To Save From The Changing Climate

October 28, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

After several years of brutal flooding and hurricanes in the U.S., a distressing debate is emerging: if there is not enough money available to protect every coastal community from the effects of global warming, how do we decide which ones to save first.

Recent research looked at the costs involved in providing basic storm-surge protection in the form of sea walls for all coastal cities with more than 25,000 residents. That number was $42 billion. Expanding the list to include communities smaller than 25,000 people would increase that cost to more than $400 billion. Realistically, that is just not going to happen.

This particular study only looked at sea walls and no other methods for minimizing flood risk, such as moving homes and businesses away from the most flood-prone areas. It also didn’t look at additional and costlier actions that will be required even with sea walls, such as revamping sewers, storm water, and drinking water infrastructure.

The facts are that many cities, especially small ones, will not be able to meet the costs facing them. Those that can’t will depend on federal funding. But even optimistically large proposals for federal infrastructure spending are likely to fall far short of the vast need. Ultimately, the money will end up being spent where it can do the most good – even if it means that some places are left out.

But what criteria will be used to direct the money? Economic value? Historic significance? Population? Political influence?

This is a looming and massive issue whose chief obstacle may be that many officials refuse to acknowledge that it is happening. This is the next wave of climate denial – denying the costs that we are all facing.

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With More Storms and Rising Seas, Which U.S. Cities Should Be Saved First?

Photo, posted October 31, 2018, courtesy of Patrick Kinney via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hundred-Year Floods Becoming One-Year Floods

September 26, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

By definition, 100-year floods are intense flooding events that historically tend to happen once every 100 years. Put another way, a 100-year flood has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

According to new research published in the journal Nature Communications, rising global temperatures may turn 100-year floods into annual occurrences in parts of the United States. The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be a result of rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

The study, led by researchers at Princeton University and MIT, examined flood risk for 171 counties along the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Their analysis concluded that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England. In the US Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods as often as every year up to as seldom as every 30 years.

Previously, most analysis of coastal flooding has looked only at the impact of sea level rise on flood risk. This new research combined the risk of rising seas with projected changes in coastal storms over the course of this century. Data from the Gulf of Mexico revealed that the effect of stronger storms is comparable with or even more significant than the effect of sea level change for 40% of the counties studied. So, neglecting the effects of storm climatology change is likely to significantly underestimate the impact of climate change in many places.

The hope is that more comprehensive flood risk data can be used to create more effective climate resiliency strategies all the way down to the county level.

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100-Year Floods Could Soon Happen Annually in Parts of U.S., Study Finds

Photo, posted August 31, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Building For Climate Change

May 13, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The manifestations of climate change are creating increasingly familiar images: floodwaters rising up house windows, charred buildings in the wake of wildfires, and homes and businesses demolished by storm winds. As these sorts of calamities become ever more common, changes to how houses are built are going to be necessary.

How can homes become more resilient against severe and unpredictable weather?

Research at Carlton University’s Sprott School of Business looks at this issue.

As an example, houses can be framed and finished in certain ways that help protect them from wind and flooding. But such methods are currently only happening in the custom-build fringes of the housing sector. Widespread adoption will require, at the minimum, significant changes to building codes.

Revising building codes is not an easy matter. The codes themselves are highly technical and complex, and beyond that, the process Is often politicized.

Even simple things like hurricane ties, which are small pieces of hardware that prevent a roof from lifting during a severe wind are not now included in building codes. Insurance companies support their use as inexpensive protection for houses. But even though the overall cost is relatively minor, the building industry pushes back at the additional expense.

The need to reduce carbon emissions has created a push for sustainable housing. But the increasingly erratic weather means that houses also need resilience and adaptation. These features will inevitably add costs and incorporating them into building codes requires producing convincing business cases.

The U.S. experienced 394 natural catastrophe events last year costing $225 billion in damage. Finding ways to make homes and businesses more resilient is not just a good idea; it is essential.

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