hurricanes

Climate Change And El Niño

December 2, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901. Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer. Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline. Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles. There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015. These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Which Cities To Save From The Changing Climate

October 28, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

After several years of brutal flooding and hurricanes in the U.S., a distressing debate is emerging: if there is not enough money available to protect every coastal community from the effects of global warming, how do we decide which ones to save first.

Recent research looked at the costs involved in providing basic storm-surge protection in the form of sea walls for all coastal cities with more than 25,000 residents. That number was $42 billion. Expanding the list to include communities smaller than 25,000 people would increase that cost to more than $400 billion. Realistically, that is just not going to happen.

This particular study only looked at sea walls and no other methods for minimizing flood risk, such as moving homes and businesses away from the most flood-prone areas. It also didn’t look at additional and costlier actions that will be required even with sea walls, such as revamping sewers, storm water, and drinking water infrastructure.

The facts are that many cities, especially small ones, will not be able to meet the costs facing them. Those that can’t will depend on federal funding. But even optimistically large proposals for federal infrastructure spending are likely to fall far short of the vast need. Ultimately, the money will end up being spent where it can do the most good – even if it means that some places are left out.

But what criteria will be used to direct the money? Economic value? Historic significance? Population? Political influence?

This is a looming and massive issue whose chief obstacle may be that many officials refuse to acknowledge that it is happening. This is the next wave of climate denial – denying the costs that we are all facing.

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With More Storms and Rising Seas, Which U.S. Cities Should Be Saved First?

Photo, posted October 31, 2018, courtesy of Patrick Kinney via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hundred-Year Floods Becoming One-Year Floods

September 26, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

By definition, 100-year floods are intense flooding events that historically tend to happen once every 100 years. Put another way, a 100-year flood has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

According to new research published in the journal Nature Communications, rising global temperatures may turn 100-year floods into annual occurrences in parts of the United States. The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be a result of rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

The study, led by researchers at Princeton University and MIT, examined flood risk for 171 counties along the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Their analysis concluded that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England. In the US Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods as often as every year up to as seldom as every 30 years.

Previously, most analysis of coastal flooding has looked only at the impact of sea level rise on flood risk. This new research combined the risk of rising seas with projected changes in coastal storms over the course of this century. Data from the Gulf of Mexico revealed that the effect of stronger storms is comparable with or even more significant than the effect of sea level change for 40% of the counties studied. So, neglecting the effects of storm climatology change is likely to significantly underestimate the impact of climate change in many places.

The hope is that more comprehensive flood risk data can be used to create more effective climate resiliency strategies all the way down to the county level.

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100-Year Floods Could Soon Happen Annually in Parts of U.S., Study Finds

Photo, posted August 31, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Building For Climate Change

May 13, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The manifestations of climate change are creating increasingly familiar images: floodwaters rising up house windows, charred buildings in the wake of wildfires, and homes and businesses demolished by storm winds. As these sorts of calamities become ever more common, changes to how houses are built are going to be necessary.

How can homes become more resilient against severe and unpredictable weather?

Research at Carlton University’s Sprott School of Business looks at this issue.

As an example, houses can be framed and finished in certain ways that help protect them from wind and flooding. But such methods are currently only happening in the custom-build fringes of the housing sector. Widespread adoption will require, at the minimum, significant changes to building codes.

Revising building codes is not an easy matter. The codes themselves are highly technical and complex, and beyond that, the process Is often politicized.

Even simple things like hurricane ties, which are small pieces of hardware that prevent a roof from lifting during a severe wind are not now included in building codes. Insurance companies support their use as inexpensive protection for houses. But even though the overall cost is relatively minor, the building industry pushes back at the additional expense.

The need to reduce carbon emissions has created a push for sustainable housing. But the increasingly erratic weather means that houses also need resilience and adaptation. These features will inevitably add costs and incorporating them into building codes requires producing convincing business cases.

The U.S. experienced 394 natural catastrophe events last year costing $225 billion in damage. Finding ways to make homes and businesses more resilient is not just a good idea; it is essential.

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How to Start Weather-Proofing Homes for Unpredictable Weather

Photo, posted June 12, 2008, courtesy of U.S. Geological Survey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Extreme Botany

December 17, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The threat of extinction of many animal species is something that makes headlines. But there are also thousands of critically endangered plants in the world and that situation has not generated nearly the same sense of urgency. Some biologists have used the term “plant blindness” to describe humanity’s inability to appreciate the ecological and economic importance of plants.

[Read more…] about Extreme Botany

Solar Plus Storage In The Caribbean

November 22, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The Caribbean is home to nearly 30 island nations and more than 7,000 individual islands with a combined population of around 40 million. All of the islands are susceptible to disasters such as hurricanes that can leave residents without electrical power for extended periods of time.

Hurricanes Are Slowing Down

July 17, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new study recently published in the scientific journal Nature, some hurricanes are moving slower and spending more time over land, which is leading to catastrophic rainfall and flooding. The speed at which hurricanes track along their paths – known as translational speed – can play a major role in a storm’s damage and devastation. 17

Extreme Weather Increasing

May 11, 2018 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

It sure seems like extreme weather is increasingly common: floods, droughts, extreme rainfall, powerful snowstorms, hurricanes and so on. But we tend to focus on recent events and often give them undue emphasis. So, it is reasonable to ask whether extreme weather really is more common these days.

FEMA And Climate Change

April 13, 2018 By EarthWise 1 Comment

In 2017, the United States spent a record $306 billion on weather and climate-related disasters, making it the costliest and most damaging year on record. The wildfires out west, Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Harvey, the Minnesota hailstorm, and the midwest drought are just some of the costly examples. Officials say that already-bloated figure will increase further in the coming years as temperatures rise.

Being Ready For Adverse Weather

December 25, 2017 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Severe weather is a major cause of death and destruction. Recent hurricanes provided all too many examples. The catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Harvey led to more than 60 deaths and necessitated thousands of emergency rescues. And yet, increasingly, weather events like hurricanes don’t occur without warning and accurate weather forecasts are increasingly common.

Climate Change And Hurricanes

October 4, 2017 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

No single weather event can be attributed to climate change. Storms, floods and droughts have always happened and some of them have always been severe. However, two centuries of people burning fossil fuels has altered temperatures just enough that some of the storms we have seen in recent times have been much worse than they otherwise would have been.

The Terminology Of Extreme Weather

September 19, 2017 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

We often hear the terms “100-year” and “500-year” used to describe instances of extreme flooding. But as the climate changes, these extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent. So what’s with the terminology then anyways?

Climate Change And Extreme Weather

December 1, 2015 By WAMC WEB

Global climate change is predicted to manifest itself in many ways over the next 100 years as average temperatures increase around the world. But we do not directly experience climate; we experience weather.