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The year in energy

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Last year saw some major trends in the global energy sector. Perhaps the most dramatic was the shift to renewable power, which continued to outpace the projections of both financial analysts and industry experts.  2024 saw new highs in renewable installation, largely due to China, which accounted for more than half of all the solar power installed globally.  Huge solar installations also came online in California and Nevada during the year.  On the other hand, the amount of coal burning for the year also exceeded expert predictions, also largely due to China.

A second trend was increasing sales of electric vehicles, which reached a new high, although short of expectations.  A major driving force in EV sales is the dropping price of lithium-ion batteries, which fell by 20% in 2024.  Again, China was a major factor with roughly half of all its domestic vehicle sales being electric.

Coal’s decline is being slowed by the rising demand for electricity.  The increased use of electric heating and cooling along with the increasing use of EVs are major factors.  But the proliferation of energy-hungry data centers incorporating artificial intelligence capabilities is driving up the demand for power even more. 

Perhaps the clearest indication of the future for global energy comes from investors, who put about $2 trillion into clean energy last year.  That is twice as much as invested in oil, coal, and natural gas.

The history of energy has seen the Age of Coal and the Age of Oil.  By all indications, we are now heading into the Age of Electricity.

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The Year in Energy in Four Charts

Photo, posted November 23, 2024, courtesy of Mussi Katz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Trends in rooftop solar

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Rooftop solar power in the United States has increased by a factor of ten over the past decade and the majority of that growth has been in the past six or seven years.  At this point, about 7% of American homes have solar panels on their roofs – about 5 million in total. 

Rooftop solar really began experiencing widespread use about 20 years ago.  Over that time period, the amount of electricity that panels are able to produce has grown substantially and the cost of solar power systems has dropped dramatically.

Twenty years ago, the median sized residential solar system generated 2.4 kilowatts of power.  In 2023, the median size was 7.4 kilowatts.  Roofs haven’t gotten bigger; solar panels have gotten better.

More importantly, 20 years ago, the average cost of installing solar power was $12 a watt. In 2023, the cost was $4.20 a watt.

Americans in fact pay considerably more for solar power than citizens in many other countries.  The reason is not the price of the equipment; it is so-called soft costs.  These include labor, financing, and permitting. Driving down soft costs is complicated and difficult. For one thing, it is important for solar industry jobs to have high pay and good benefits.

The cost of solar also varies significantly by state.  California is the leading state for solar power and its median solar cost is the $4.20 a watt, the same as the national average.  Nevada has the lowest cost at $3.40 a watt and Utah has the highest at $5.20 a watt.

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Bigger and Less Expensive: A Snapshot of U.S. Rooftop Solar Power and How It’s Changed

Photo, posted September 18, 2011, courtesy of Team Massachusetts 4D Home via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Fireflies are in decline

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If you are seeing fewer fireflies each year, you’re not alone.  Like many insects, firefly populations are in decline.  A new study by researchers from the University of Kentucky, Bucknell University, Penn State University, and the USDA has shed some light on the precarious situation facing firefly populations across North America. 

The research team used a mix of field surveys from citizen scientists and advanced machine learning techniques to analyze more than 24,000 surveys from the Firefly Watch citizen science initiative.  The study, which was recently published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, identified the factors likely responsible for the declines in firefly populations. 

The research team found that fireflies are sensitive to various environmental factors, from short-term weather conditions to longer climatic trends.  Fireflies thrive in temperate and tropical climates.  As global temperatures rise, these conditions become less predictable and less hospitable.

Light pollution is another threat to fireflies.  Artificial light at night – from things like street lights and billboards – is particularly disruptive to fireflies as it interferes with their bioluminescent communication essential for mating.

Urban growth, including buildings, roads, and sidewalks, poses another significant threat to fireflies by overtaking their natural habitats and decreasing available breeding areas. 

Additionally, certain agricultural practices seem to contribute to the decline of fireflies. 

According to the research team, reducing light pollution, preserving natural habitats, and implementing wildlife-friendly agricultural practices are conservation measures that could help mitigate the decline of fireflies. 

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Fading lights: Comprehensive study unveils multiple threats to North America’s firefly populations

Photo, posted July 12, 2021, courtesy of Bruce Hallman/USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

EV battery costs continue to drop

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Electric vehicles have historically been more expensive than their gas-powered counterparts primarily because of the cost of the batteries that power them.  Today’s EV battery packs range in size from about 40 kWh to as much as 200 kWh, where kWh measure the amount of energy stored in pack.

The batteries in EVs are lithium-ion batteries, the same technology used to power cell phones, tablets, and computers.  A decade ago, the batteries averaged $668 per kilowatt-hour and packs as large as those in some of today’s vehicles were simply unthinkable from a price standpoint. 

Over the years, government subsidies, increased competition, higher volume, improvements in battery technology, and reductions in the cost of raw materials such as lithium have combined to drive continuous and dramatic reductions in battery costs.  By March 2022, the average price for lithium-ion batteries was $146 per kWh.  This past August, battery costs broke the $100 per kilowatt-hour barrier.

Industry analysts have long maintained that once the $100 barrier has been reached, EVs could achieve price parity with their fossil-fuel counterparts.  Electric cars would no longer be more expensive to buy than equivalent gas cars.

Projections are that battery prices will continue to fall by something like 10% a year for the rest of this decade.  All else being equal, EVs should be cheaper to buy than gas cars.  Of course, they have already been cheaper to operate for a long time. 

None of this means that car prices will go down in general.  That will depend on trends in inflation and those are pretty hard to predict.

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EVs Set to Match Gas Guzzlers in Price as Battery Costs Plummet

Photo, posted May 9, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Fewer Farms In The World | Earth Wise

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A new study by the University of Colorado Boulder looked at the trends in the number and size of farms around the world starting from the 1960s and projecting through the end of the 21st century.

The analysis shows that the number of farms globally will shrink in half while the size of the average existing farms doubles.

The study used data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization on agricultural area, GDP per capita, and rural population size of more than 180 countries.  The analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100.  A key reason for the trend is that as a country’s economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend the land.

This decline has been ongoing in the US and Europe for decades.  For example, in the US, there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.

This trend has troubling consequences.  Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures.  The greater biodiversity and crop diversity of smaller farms makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks.

Currently, 600 million farms provide for 8 billion people. By the end of the century, it is likely that half the number of farmers will be feeding even more people.  That is a weighty responsibility for agricultural workers.  Support systems and education for farmers becomes ever more important.

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The number of farms in the world is declining, here’s why it matters to you

Photo, posted January 18, 2011, courtesy of 2010 CIAT / Neil Palmer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Large Lakes In Decline | Earth Wise

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Globally, freshwater lakes and reservoirs hold 87% of the planet’s liquid freshwater, making them a valuable resource for both people and wildlife.  Despite their value, the long-term trends and changes to water levels of lakes have been largely unknown – until now.

According to a new assessment recently published in the journal Science, more than half of the largest lakes around the world are losing water.  Using satellite observations and climate data, the research team created a technique to measure changes in water levels in nearly 2,000 of the world’s biggest lakes and reservoirs, representing 95% of the total lake water storage on Earth.

The results are staggering.  According to the findings, 53% of Earth’s largest lakes and reservoirs now store significantly less water than they did in 1992.  The total amount of water lost is estimated to be 144.5 cubic miles, which is equivalent to the volume of 17 Lake Meads (the largest reservoir in the U.S.). 

Unsurprisingly, climate warming and human consumption were the main drivers of water loss from lakes, whereas sedimentation — the buildup of debris — was the biggest driver of water loss in reservoirs.  Roughly one-quarter of the world’s population – two billion people – live in the basin of a drying lake, indicating the urgent need for sustainable water resources management.

But the news is not entirely bleak.  According to the research team, the new method of tracking lake water storage trends can give water managers and communities insight into how to better protect this critical resource. 

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Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage

Photo, posted February 10, 2010, courtesy of Ninara via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Can All Plant Species Survive? | Earth Wise 

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Many animal populations around the world are struggling and people are mostly to blame.  Species are declining because of all sorts of things including changes in land and sea use, pollution, invasive species, and climate change.

Like many animal species, plants are also struggling to adapt to a human-dominated world.  Plants provide the planet with food, oxygen, and energy, and are used to produce fibers, building materials, and medicines.  Even though plants are easier and cheaper to protect, they are often overlooked in conservation efforts. 

According to a paper recently published in the journal Trends in Plant Science, preventing all future land plant extinctions across the globe is possible with the right approaches.  The author of the paper, Richard Corlett of the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden in China, writes that “if zero extinction is potentially achievable for plants, a less ambitious target would be inexcusable.” 

According to the paper, one big barrier in plant conservation is the lack of trained specialists, especially in tropical areas where there is a backlog of unidentified species.  It’s likely that many “dark extinctions,” which is when species slip away without us knowing they existed, have already occurred.

Another roadblock in preventing plant extinctions is information access, which can be solved by building an online “metaherbarium.”  This collaborative database would link digitized records from herbarium specimens with photographs, status assessments, and recovery plans.

Finally, the creation of “microreserves” – which are tiny pieces of protected land designed to get around space constraints – would further contribute to effective conservation of targeted plant species. 

Zero plant extinctions should be the goal.   

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‘Zero plant extinction’ is possible, says plant ecologist

Photo, posted May 16, 2008, courtesy of Andrew Otto via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Shrinking Birds | Earth Wise

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A new study by researchers at Yale University looks at the way bird morphology is changing in response to the warming climate.  As temperatures rise, birds’ bodies are growing smaller, but their wings are growing longer.

In the study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the scientists analyzed two independently collected datasets containing 40 years of morphology changes in 129 bird species comprising 52 migratory species in North America and 77 South American species.

In both datasets, similar changes were observed over the 40-year period.  The overall trend makes sense given that being smaller and having longer wings both would help birds to stay cool in warmer weather.  What was less obvious was that the changes to the birds were much greater among the smallest bird species.

One possible explanation is that smaller species tend to reproduce on a shorter time scale and therefore evolve more quickly.  However, the study found no link between generation length and the changes in body size.

Another possible explanation is that smaller species tend to have larger populations, which means there is a greater chance of having individuals with desirable new traits that can get passed on.  But the scientists found no link between population size and shifts in body size either.

At this point, it is unclear why smaller birds are shrinking more.  More research is needed to figure out why larger birds are slower to adapt to climate change.  In general, larger species of animals have an increased risk of extinction.  This new research suggests that larger body size exacerbates extinction risk by limiting the ability for birds to adapt to the changes we are making to the climate.

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Birds Are Shrinking as the Climate Warms — and Small Birds Are Shrinking Faster

Photo, posted October 30, 2018, courtesy of N. Lewis / National Park Service via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Fertilizing The Ocean | Earth Wise

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There are a variety of schemes for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  Some require advanced and generally not-very-well developed technology.  Others, such as planting vast numbers of trees, are nature-based but are daunting with respect to the scale to which they need to take place in order to be truly effective.

Researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington have been examining the scientific evidence for seeding the oceans with iron-rich engineered fertilizer in order to feed phytoplankton.  Phytoplankton are microscopic plants that are a key part of the ocean ecosystem.

Phytoplankton take up carbon dioxide as they grow.  In nature, nutrients from the land end up in the ocean through rivers and from blowing dust.  These nutrients fertilize the plankton.  The idea is to augment these existing processes to increase the growth of phytoplankton.  As they eventually die, they sink deep into the ocean, taking the excess carbon with them.


The researchers argue that engineered nanoparticles could provide highly controlled nutrition that is specifically tuned for different ocean environments.  Surface coatings could help the particles attach to plankton.  Some could be engineered with light-absorbing properties, allowing plankton to consume and use more carbon dioxide.

Analysis of over 100 published studies showed that numerous non-toxic, abundant, and easy-to-create metal-oxygen materials could safely enhance plankton growth.  According to the researchers, the proposed fertilization would simply speed up a natural process that already sequesters carbon in a form that could remove it from the atmosphere for thousands of years.  They argue that given the current trends in the climate, time is of the essence for taking action.

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Fertilizing the Ocean to Store Carbon Dioxide

Photo, posted August 2, 2007, courtesy of Kevin McCarthy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Electric Cars And Cleaner Air | Earth Wise

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Cities are awash in microscopic soot and other pollutants from the tailpipes of vehicles.  Apart from contributing substantially to the warming of the planet, these emissions have a significant impact on human health.  Research at Cornell University has determined that the continued growth of electric cars will lead to cleaner air and reduced human mortality in most if not all U.S. metropolitan areas.

The study, published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, estimated the health impact and consequential economic impact of cleaner air in American cities as a result of the transition to electric vehicles.

For example, by 2050, Los Angeles will have 1,163 fewer premature deaths annually, corresponding to $12.6 billion in economic health benefits.  Greater New York City could see 574 fewer deaths a year leading to $6.24 billion in associated economic gains.

Global sales of electric cars have grown steadily.  In 2016, they accounted for less than 1% of the market.  That share grew to 2.2% in 2018, 4.1% in 2020, and 6.6% in 2021.

In the U.S., electric cars accounted for 4.5% of sales in 2021, but in many cities, the numbers were much higher. 

These trends are likely to accelerate as a combination of government policies and major decisions by automakers drive a rapid transition to electrification.  While mitigating the effects of climate change continues to be the main driving force for that transition, the human health benefits will be a very significant reward for doing the right thing for the planet.

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Electric car sales drive toward cleaner air, less mortality

Photo, posted May 11, 2021, courtesy of Chris Yarzab via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Examining The Decline Of Honey Bees | Earth Wise

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For many years, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the global struggle of pollinators.  Many of the invertebrate pollinator species, such as bees and butterflies, are facing extinction. And since 75% of the world’s food crops depend on pollination to some extent, the decline of pollinators poses a major threat to global food security.

Honey bees are among the struggling pollinators.  Over the past 14 years, bee colonies have been disappearing at an alarming rate in what is known as the “colony collapse disorder.” 

In an effort to understand why, scientists have often focused their research on environmental stressors, such as parasites, pesticides, and disease.  But according to new research by entomologists from the University of Maryland, honey bee life spans are simply 50% shorter today than they were 50 years ago.  In the study, which was recently published in the journal Scientific Reports, the researchers found that honey bees kept in a controlled, laboratory environment lived half as long as honey bees did in the 1970s.  This is the first study to show that genetics – as opposed to environmental stressors – may be influencing the broader trends seen in the beekeeping industry.

When the researchers modeled the effect of their findings on a beekeeping operation, they found that the resulting loss rates were about 33%.  This is similar to the average overwinter and annual loss rates reported by beekeepers during the past 14 years.

The next step is for researchers to compare trends in honey bee life spans across the U.S. and in other countries to see if there are differences in bee longevity. 

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Honey Bee Lifespans are 50% Shorter Today Than They Were 50 Years Ago

Helping Agriculture’s Helpful Honey Bees

Photo, posted June 23, 2007, courtesy of Susan E. Ellis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewable Energy Booming in India | Earth Wise

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India is the country with the second largest population in the world – over 1.4 billion people – second only to China – and will undoubtedly pass China soon based on population trends in the two countries.   India is the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide, after China and the U.S.  With its rapidly growing population and an economy heavily dependent on coal and oil, emissions in India are on a steep upward trajectory.  Currently, fossil fuels account for about 60% of India’s installed energy capacity.  It is essential that actions are taken to curb its rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

To that end, India’s renewables sector is booming.  The country is projected to add 35 to 40 gigawatts of renewable energy each year until 2030.  That’s enough energy to power up 30 million more homes each year.  The country has established a target of producing 50% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by the end of this decade.

 India is expected to reach over 400 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030

according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and Climate Energy Finance.  The Indian government’s own projections estimate that the country will reach 500 gigawatts of renewable capacity in that timeframe.

As is the case with China, a country with an enormous population undergoing major economic growth and modernization has vast energy needs.  While it is imperative for the entire world that India puts a cap on its growing greenhouse gas emissions, it is a difficult challenge for an energy-hungry country.

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Renewable energy booms in India

Photo, posted November 14, 2011, courtesy of Amaury Laporte via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Some Good Monarch News | Earth Wise

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Eastern monarch butterflies spend their winter months in central Mexico.   Every spring, they embark on a lengthy, multigenerational migration that takes them into the United States and even into southern Canada, where they breed.  The butterflies go through several generations before they eventually migrate back to Mexico.

Twenty-five years ago, overwintering monarchs in Mexico blanketed nearly 45 acres of forest.  The acreage covered, which has been surveyed annually since 1993, is a rough indicator for the actual number of butterflies that survive the difficult migration process. In 2013, the monarchs occupied only 1.6 acres of Mexican forest.  The butterflies were deemed to be on the edge of extinction.

Last December, the monarch survey found 7 acres covered by the butterflies, an increase of 35% over the previous winter.  The population appears to be steadily rebounding, although the numbers are still substantially lower than the levels seen in the 1990s.

The butterflies are struggling with multiple problems.  There continues to be a lack of milkweed, the only food source for the caterpillars, in their breeding grounds along their migratory route.  More extreme weather driven by climate change is another challenge, and illegal logging in their overwintering habitat in Mexico has also become a threat.

After the butterfly population crashed in 2013, conservation efforts shifted into high gear with lots of milkweed planting in the US and Canada, and crackdowns on timber poachers in Mexico.

The remarkable multigenerational migration of monarchs is a delicate phenomenon that can be disrupted by many different things.  Eastern monarchs are still in serious danger, but the current trend seems to be positive.

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Warming Trends: Butterflies Bounce Back, Growing Up Gay Amid High Plains Oil, Art Focuses on Plastic Production

Photo, posted August 12, 2021, courtesy of Paul VanDerWerf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wind And Solar And Meeting Climate Goals | Earth Wise

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According to a new report from the climate think tank Ember, the rapid growth that has been going on for solar and wind power could allow the global electricity sector to do its part in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In 2021, solar power grew by 23% worldwide and wind power grew by 14%.  The Netherlands, Australia, and Vietnam had the largest gains in renewable energy.  Solar power in Vietnam grew by 337%.

The trends over the past decade, if continued across the globe, would result in the power sector being on track for meeting climate goals.  But not all the news is good.  The overall power sector has not been adequately reducing emissions.  Coal power actually grew by 9% last year as a result of increased demand for power during the rapid economic recovery in the easing of the pandemic shutdowns.  A spike in natural gas prices made coal more cost-competitive.

In order for the power sector to do its part in keeping warming below 1.5 degrees, wind and solar power will need to provide 40% of the world’s power by 2030 and nearly 70% by 2050.  Today, they supply only 10% of the world’s electricity.

With rising gas prices during Russia’s war with Ukraine, there is real danger of increased use of coal, threatening the gains made by renewable energy.

Nonetheless, a study published in Oxford Open Energy modeled various scenarios for the growth of renewable energy and found that it is feasible to meet climate goals.  In order to achieve this, countries’ policies will need to stimulate significant increases in energy and resource efficiency and rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies, promote strong environmental actions, and encourage low population growth.

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Rapid Growth of Wind and Solar Could Help Limit Warming to 1.5 degrees C

Photo, posted October 11, 2011, courtesy of Michael Coghlan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Atmosphere Is Thirstier | Earth Wise      

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The American West is in the throes of a two-decade-long drought.  The climate there is getting warmer and drier, which has led to increasing demand for water resources from both humans and ecosystems.  According to a new study by the Desert Research Institute and collaborators, the atmosphere across much of the U.S. is also demanding a greater share of water than it used to.

Evaporative demand, which is also called atmospheric thirst, is a measure of the potential loss of water from the earth’s surface up to the atmosphere.  It is a function of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.  The study, published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, assessed trends in evaporative demand during a 40-year period from 1980-2020.

The study’s findings showed substantial increases in atmospheric thirst across much of the Western U.S. over that period, with the largest increases centered around the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado rivers.  This is important because atmospheric thirst is a persistent force in pushing Western landscapes and water supplies toward drought.

The study found that, on average, increases in temperature were responsible for 57% of the changes observed in atmospheric thirst, humidity 26%, and the other factors playing lesser roles.

For farmers and other water users, increases in atmospheric thirst mean that, in the future, more water will be required to meet existing water needs.  Crops already require more water than they did in the past and can be expected to require more water in the future.  Over time, for every drop of precipitation that falls, less and less water is likely to drain into streams, wetlands, aquifers, or other water bodies.

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New study shows robust increases in atmospheric thirst across much of U.S. during past 40 years

Photo, posted August 9, 2007, courtesy of William Clifford via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

January Climate Report Card | Earth Wise

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January was the sixth-warmest January in the 143 years of global climate record keeping.  The global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.

Meanwhile, the United States had its coolest January since 2014, although the month still ranked nearly a degree above the long-term average across the nation.  This January was also the driest January in eight years and was one of the top- 15 driest Januarys on record.  That being said, there was the so-called Bomb Cyclone late in the month that dumped 1-2 feet of snow and brought blizzard conditions along the eastern seaboard and set a one-day snowfall record in Boston.

Global conditions and regional and local conditions can be very different.  In the big picture, January was the 46th consecutive January and the 445th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th century average.

And while the US had a fairly cool January, South America saw its second-warmest January on record, Asia had its fourth warmest, and Oceania had its seventh warmest.

Apart from temperatures, Antarctic sea ice coverage was the second smallest January extent in 44 years.  Arctic ice was 208,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average, although it was the largest since 2009.

Even as the global climate warms, local and regional climate conditions will continue to have unique and variable characteristics over the course of time.  Every time there’s a bout of cold weather, it isn’t time to stop being concerned about climate change.

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January 2022 was Earth’s 6th warmest on record

Photo, posted January 6, 2013, courtesy of Christopher Michel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Hurricanes In The Northeast | Earth Wise

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According to a new study led by Yale University, more hurricanes are likely to hit Connecticut and the northeastern U.S. as global warming continues to increase temperatures in the region.

Hurricane Henri made landfall in August as a tropical storm on the Connecticut/Rhode Island border.  In September 2020, subtropical storm Alpha made landfall in Portugal, the first subtropical or tropical cyclone ever observed to make landfall in the mainland of that country.

Tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons are typically intense and destructive in the lower latitudes. 

The study concludes that violent storms could migrate northward in our hemisphere and southward in the southern hemisphere as a result of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The research predicts that tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years.

In Connecticut, Hurricane Henri was not the only tropical storm to affect the region in 2021.  The remnants of Hurricane Ida brought damaging winds and torrential rain that felled trees and flooded streets and basements.

The northern expansion of such violent storms is going on as water levels in the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island Sound keep rising.  Because of melting glaciers thousands of miles away, water levels in Long Island Sound could rise by as much as 20 inches by 2050, enough to submerge parts of Groton’s shore and cause regular flooding in roads and neighborhoods.

Future hurricane prediction is an inexact science, but the ongoing trends do not bode well for the region.

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More hurricanes likely to slam Connecticut and region due to climate change, says study

Photo, posted October 29, 2012, courtesy of Rachel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Emissions From Global Computing

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A recent study from Lancaster University in the UK has concluded that global computing is likely to be responsible for a greater share of greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought and that share is continuing to grow.

Previous calculations of the contributions from information and communications technology (or ICT) estimated that globally it accounts for 1.8 to 2.8% of total emissions.  According to the new study, these estimates likely fall short of the sector’s real climate impact because they only show a partial picture.

Prior estimates do not account for the full lifecycle and supply chain of ICT products and infrastructure.  They do not include the energy expended in manufacturing the products and equipment, the carbon cost associated with all the components in the products, and the operational carbon footprint of the companies producing those components. 

The study argues that the true contribution of ICT to global greenhouse gas emissions could be between 2.1 and 3.9%, which is more than the aviation industry.  Furthermore, the study warns that new trends in computing and ICT such as the use of big data and artificial intelligence, the so-called Internet of Things, and the use of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, risk driving further substantial growth in ICT’s greenhouse gas footprint.

It has been a commonly held believe that ICT and computing technologies lead to greater efficiencies across many other sectors, leading to savings in net greenhouse gas emissions.  According to the new study, the historical evidence indicates the opposite.  ICT has driven wide-ranging efficiency and productivity improvements, but the net result in emissions has been that they have been growing steadily.

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Emissions from computing and ICT could be worse than previously thought

Photo, posted March 13, 2018, courtesy of Flickr.

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Cutting The Cost Of Energy Storage | Earth Wise

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The cost of both solar and wind power continues to drop making the two renewable energy sources the cheapest way to make electricity in more and more places.  Given the virtually inexhaustible supply of both wind and sun power, these clean electricity sources can in principle meet all our energy needs.  The hang up is that both of them are intermittent sources – the wind doesn’t blow all the time and the sun doesn’t shine all the time.

The solution to the intermittency problem is energy storage.  If energy produced by wind and sun can be stored so it can be made available for use at any time, then the goal of having 100% clean energy can be realized.

Energy storage technology has continued to improve over time and to get cheaper.  The Department of Energy recently announced a new initiative aimed at accelerating both of these trends.

The new program – called Long Duration Storage Shot –  has the goal of reducing the cost of grid-scale, long-duration energy storage by 90% within this decade.

Long-duration energy storage is defined as systems that can store energy for more than ten hours at a time.  Such systems can support a low-cost, reliable, carbon-free electric grid that can supply power even when energy generation is unavailable or lower than demand.  With long-duration storage, solar-generated power can be used at night.

The program will consider multiple types of storage technologies – electrochemical (that is: batteries), mechanical, thermal, chemical carriers, and various combinations thereof.  Any technology that has the potential to meet the necessary duration and cost targets for long-term grid storage are fair game for the program.

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DOE announces goal to cut costs of long-duration energy storage by 90%

Photo, posted October 16, 2017, courtesy of UC Davis College of Engineering via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Even The Deep Sea Is Warming | Earth Wise

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Approximately 75% of the area covered by ocean is deep, dark, and cold.  This is known as the deep sea.  But even in these remote regions of the planet things are heating up. 

According to a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, researchers analyzed a decade of hourly temperature readings at four depths in the Atlantic Ocean’s Argentine Basin, off the coast of Uruguay.  The research team selected recording depths that would best represent the average depth of the ocean, which is just over 12,000 feet. 

The researchers found that deep sea temperatures fluctuate more than was previously known.  They also detected a warming trend at the bottom of the ocean.  In fact, all recordings indicated a warming trend of 0.02 to 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade between 2009 and 2019.  This is a significant warming trend in the deep sea because temperature fluctuations are typically measured in thousandths of a degree. 

Researchers say this increase is consistent with warming trends in the shallow ocean associated with anthropogenic climate change.  However, they say more research is needed to better understand what is driving the warming temperatures in the deep sea. 

A better understanding of what is driving these changes could have far-reaching implications.  Since oceans absorb a significant amount of the world’s heat, learning about the oceans’ temperature trends could help researchers better understand temperature fluctuations in the atmosphere as well.

The researchers hope their findings will demonstrate the need to survey deep ocean temperatures annually in order to better identify the long-term trends. 

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The deep sea is slowly warming

Photo, posted July 1, 2018, courtesy of NOAA Ocean Exploration and Research via Flickr.

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