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Cold spells and global warming

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January saw some major bouts of subfreezing temperatures across much of North America and significant snowfall in places like Pensacola, Florida and New Orleans.  This spate of frigid weather undoubtedly prompted many people to question whether global warming is really happening.  But such cold spells quite likely are not happening in spite of global warming, but actually as a result of it.

The polar jet stream is a slim band of westerly winds that circles the Arctic.  It is formed where cold air from the north meets warmer air to the south.  As the planet warms, the Arctic has been heating up nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet, which narrows the difference in temperature between the northern air and southern air.  The result is that the jet stream is weaker and more meandering, which allows frigid air to reach further south.

The polar vortex is a whirling mass of cold air that extends across the Arctic.  It is stronger in the winter when the Northern Hemisphere leans away from the sun.  The polar jet stream normally holds on to the vortex and keeps it far to the north.  But when the jet stream gets wobbly, this mass of cold air can break out and travel south, even to places like Florida, Louisiana, and Texas.

The planet as a whole is warming, and the Arctic is warming even faster.  But there will still be plenty of ice, snow, and frigid air in the Arctic winter for decades to come.  As the behavior of the polar jet stream gets increasingly erratic, there may well be more frequent episodes of plunging temperatures in areas unaccustomed to them.

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Severe Cold Spells May Persist Because of Warming, Not in Spite of It

Photo, posted January 5, 2025, courtesy of Dermot O’Halloran via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The doomsday glacier

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The Thwaites Glacier is an enormous Antarctic Glacier.  Its area is larger than that of Florida – in fact, larger than 30 other U.S. states – and it is melting.  It has been retreating for 80 years but has accelerated its pace in the past 30.  Its shedding of ice into the ocean already contributes 4% of global sea level rise.  If it collapsed entirely, it would raise sea levels by more than 2 feet.  For this reason, it has been dubbed the Doomsday Glacier.

A team of scientists has been studying it since 2018 in order to better understand what is happening within the glacier. They sent a torpedo-shaped robot to the glacier’s grounding line, which is the point at which the ice rises up from the seabed and starts to float.  The underside of Thwaites is insulated by a thin layer of cold water.  However, at the grounding line, tidal action is pumping warmer sea water at high pressure as far as six miles under the ice.  This is disrupting the insulating layer and is speeding up the retreat of the glacier.

The potential collapse of the glacier is not even the only massive risk it poses.  It also acts like a cork, holding back the vast Antarctic ice sheet.  If that ice sheet were ever to collapse, sea levels could rise 10 feet.

A critical unanswered question is whether the ultimate collapse of Thwaites Glacier is already irreversible.  There are regular heavy snowfalls that occur in the Antarctic which help replenish ice loss.  Whether nations’ progress in slowing climate change can change the balance between ice accumulation and ice loss on the glacier remains to be seen.

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‘Doomsday’ glacier set to melt faster and swell seas as world heats up, say scientists

Photo, posted January 3, 2022, courtesy of Felton Davis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The slippery slopes of the ski industry

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, snowfall is declining globally as temperatures warm because of human-caused climate change.  Less snow threatens to reinforce global warming, and to disrupt food, water, and livelihoods for billions of people.   

According to new modeling by researchers from Protect Our Winters Australia and The Australian National University, the ski industry in Australia is at risk of major disruptions and shorter seasons if climate change continues unabated.  The researchers found the average ski season across all resorts in Australia will be 44 days shorter by 2050 under a mid-greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and 55 days shorter under a high-emissions scenario.

But the research team also revealed that the Australian ski industry would fare significantly better if decisive action is taken to reduce climate pollution.  In fact, under a low-emissions scenario, the ski season would be 28 days shorter by 2050, before starting to improve by 2080 if emissions are kept down.

However, if decisive climate action isn’t taken, the researchers warn some ski resorts in Australia may be forced to close for good.  But this threat isn’t unique to Australia. 

In fact, according to a study recently published in the journal PLOS ONE, 13% of ski areas around the world are predicted to lose all natural snow cover under the high-emissions scenario by 2071-2100 – relative to their historic baselines. 

The future losses of ski areas around the world will be significant if global emissions continue unchecked.

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Climate crisis puts Australia’s ski industry on slippery slope, but not all hope is lost

“Our Changing Snowscapes” Report Released

The future is likely less skiable, thanks to climate change

Photo, posted June 6, 2018, courtesy of Clement Tang via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Skiing and climate change

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, anthropogenic climate change resulting in higher average temperatures has caused a global decline in snowfall.  Less snow threatens to reinforce global warming, and to disrupt food, water, and livelihoods for billions of people.  

According to a new study recently published in the journal PLOS ONE, annual snow cover days in all major skiing regions are projected to decrease dramatically as a result of climate change.  In the study, the research team from the University of Bayreuth in Germany examined the impact of climate change on annual natural snow cover in seven major skiing regions.  Using the public climate database CHELSA, the researchers predicted annual snow cover days for each ski area for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 under low, high, and very high carbon emissions scenarios.

Under the high emissions scenario, 13% of ski areas are predicted to lose all natural snow cover by 2071-2100 relative to their historic baselines.  By 2071-2100, average annual snow cover days were predicted to decline by 78% in the Australian Alps, 51% in the Southern Alps, 50% in the Japanese Alps, 43% in the Andes, 42% in the European Alps, 37% in the Appalachians, and 23% in the the Rocky Mountains – all declines relative to their historic baselines.

The future losses of natural snow cover in ski areas around the world will be significant if global emissions continue unchecked.

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The future is likely less skiable, thanks to climate change

New maps show where snowfall is disappearing

Photo, posted April 14, 2006, courtesy of Kallu via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Shrinking African glaciers

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We don’t usually associate Africa with glaciers, but the continent has had glaciers on its highest peaks for the past 10,000 to 15,000 years.  Africa’s glaciers are found in three regions:  the Rwenzori Mountains along the border between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mount Kilimanjaro, and Mount Kenya.  At the turn of the 20th century, there were 43 glaciers scattered across 6 peaks within the Rwenzori Mountains.  In the intervening years, things have greatly changed.

 Since the early 20th century, Africa’s glaciers have shrunk by 90%.  Because all these glaciers are close to the equator, they are especially vulnerable to warming.  According to a new study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate, in the last two decades, Africa’s glaciers have lost roughly half their area.

This rapid decrease is alarming to climate scientists because they represent a clear indicator of the impact of climate change.  A major factor in the decline of the glaciers is the reduction in cloud cover over the mountains.  Sunshine is melting glaciers and turning ice directly into water vapor even when temperatures are below freezing.  Reductions in snowfall at the same time means that the melting glaciers are not being replenished.

Scientists believe that the tropical glaciers of Africa may all but disappear over the next 25 years.

Roughly three-quarters of the Earth’s freshwater is stored in the world’s more than 200,000 glaciers.  According to scientists, if the world reaches but maintains 1.5 degrees of warming, half of the world’s glaciers could be gone by the end of this century.  If the world continues to warm as it has been without slowing down, more than 80% of the glaciers will disappear.

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Africa’s Tropical Glaciers Have Shrunk by 90 Percent, Research Shows

Photo, posted February 26, 2022, courtesy of Ray in Manila via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A wet January

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For the first time in a while, the monthly report on the US climate did not feature record-setting heat.  The average January temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 1.6 degrees above the average, but that only ranked it in the middle third of the climate record.  The diminishing El Niño probably helped.  On the other hand, the global average temperature in January was again the warmest on record – the 8th consecutive record-setting month.

But January still managed to be atypical weatherwise in the U.S. in that the nation’s average precipitation across the country was 3.18 inches – nearly an inch above average – which made it the 10th wettest January in NOAA’s 130-year climate record.  Thirteen states experienced top-ten rainfall amounts.  In late January, record rainfall and flooding hit the southern plains, especially in parts of Texas and Louisiana.  Meanwhile, early February brought historic rainfall and mountain snow to California with a second round later in the month.

All of the rainfall in January has made some difference to drought conditions across the country.  On January 30th, about 23.5% of the contiguous U.S. was In drought, which was 9.5% lower than the beginning of the month.  However, drought conditions expanded or intensified across northern parts of the Rockies and Plains among a few other places.

Outside of the lower-48, Alaska continued to experience historic snowfall conditions.  Between October and the end of January, Anchorage had over 100 inches of snow.

We are living in an era of weather extremes.

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The nation just saw its 10th-wettest January on record

Photo, posted February 8, 2017, courtesy of Paxson Woelber via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

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Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average.  In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events.  The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea.   Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature.  On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm.  Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict.  The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes.   There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

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Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Storms And The Megadrought | Earth Wise

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California experienced its wettest 10-day period in 25 years as a result of a series of storms driven by atmospheric rivers in January.  The Rocky Mountains got buried in snow from the same weather pattern.   For the drought-stricken West, the storms were good news.  But they are not the cure for what’s been ailing the region.

In California, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains has been greatly enhanced, containing twice as much snow as is considered average for this time of year.  Without a doubt, it will reduce the impact of the drought that has plagued the state for 23 years.  But one big storm or even a series of them is not enough to undo years of minimal precipitation and rising temperatures.  Many of the states’ largest reservoirs remain well below historical averages despite the record-breaking rain.  It would take several wet years to really allow the state to recover from the drought.

The snowfall in the Rockies is crucial because it is the source of more than two-thirds of the water in the Colorado River.  The Colorado River is the water lifeline for 40 million people from Wyoming to Mexico.

The ongoing shrinking of the Colorado River is a crisis that has created massive problems for the multibillion-dollar agriculture industry and for many large cities, including Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles.  Two of the nation’s largest reservoirs – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – are filled by the Colorado River.  The historic low levels of these reservoirs have threatened the functioning of hydropower facilities that provide electricity to millions of people.

The January storms were good news for the West, but its problems are not over.

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This Winter’s Rain and Snow Won’t be Enough to Pull the West Out of Drought

Photo, posted September 18, 2022, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Glacial Loss In The Swiss Alps | Earth Wise

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In 2022, glaciers in the Swiss Alps melted more than in any year on record.   This is the latest piece of bad news for the country’s glaciers, which have lost more than half of their volume of ice since the 1930s.

The melting season for Switzerland’s snow and ice typically starts in May and ends in early October.  This year’s melting season caused glaciers in the Diablerets mountain group to thin by an average of 13 feet, which is 3 times the amount of thinning observed over the past decade.   The Tsanfleuron pass between two of the glaciers is now exposed as bare rock for the first time in several thousand years. Across Switzerland, glaciers lost about 6% of their remaining volume just this year.  The previous worst year for glaciers was 2003, when losses were nearly 4%. 

There was significant melting this year in part because of the small amount of snowfall over the winter.  That snow melted quickly, being sped up by the warming effect of dust from the Sahara Desert falling on the snow.  By early summer, there was no longer a protective blanket of snow on the glaciers, exposing them to summer heat.

The loss of glaciers is far more serious than the disappearance of aesthetically pleasing landscape features.   Glaciers act as reservoirs of water that persist through the summer months.  Melt from glaciers provides water to ecosystems and creates habitats for plants and animals.  Cold runoff from glaciers affects downstream water temperatures which have a major impact on insects, fish, and other creatures.  Globally, melting glaciers contribute more than 20% of the observed ongoing sea-level rise.

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Rocky Road for Swiss Glaciers

Photo, posted June 22, 2015, courtesy of Dennis Jarvis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Cloud Seeding And The Western Drought | Earth Wise

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The massive megadrought affecting the American West is now considered to be the driest two-decade period in the past 1,200 years.  The lengthy drought has led to increased wildfires, reduced agricultural productivity, and reduced electricity generation by hydropower plants.  The historically low water levels in the largest two reservoirs in the U.S. – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – has triggered reductions in water allocations to Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico.

Several western states have expanded cloud seeding programs in an attempt to increase precipitation.  During the past two years, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and California have all stepped up their cloud seeding efforts.  Outside of the US, the United Arab Emirates and China both have implemented massive cloud seeding programs.

A study by researchers at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research looked at the ability of cloud seeding to increase snowfall.  The study unambiguously demonstrated that cloud seeding can increase snowfall.  Just how effective it is in terms of how much additional snow seeding produces is less clear.

Given the dire need for water and the fact that cloud seeding is not especially expensive, governments and other users are not hesitating to make use of it.

Unfortunately, the study shed no light on the efficacy of warm weather seeding to produce rain.  There is in fact little evidence that seeding clouds to produce rain accomplishes very much.  Once again, the prevailing view is that it is worth trying.  There do not appear to be environmental downsides to seeding.

The hope is that cloud seeding may at least restore clouds to the state they had been in before industrial pollution and other human activities affected them.

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Can Cloud Seeding Help Quench the Thirst of the U.S. West?

Photo, posted November 21, 2013, courtesy of Sharon Tate Soberon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Alaskan Icemageddon | Earth Wise

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December saw some wild weather in Alaska.  A combination of record high temperatures and torrential rainstorms resulted in the coining of the term “Icemageddon” to describe what was going on with the weather.

Kodiak Island in southern Alaska saw a high temperature of 67 degrees on December 26, which was warmer than it was in Southern California that same day.  This set an all-time record for the warmest December day in Alaska.  Such a high temperature is amazing considering how little sunlight Alaska gets at this time of year.  And with warmer air comes wetter air, as the atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapor as temperatures increase.

As a result, that same day saw the interior of the state get an inch of rain in just a few hours, something that hadn’t happened for decades.  But then, when temperatures plummeted again, all that rainwater froze.

Huge sheets of ice blocked roads and choked traffic in Fairbanks, Alaska’s second largest city.  Indeed, it was the state’s transportation department that came up with the term icemageddon to describe the situation.

The extreme warmth in December is related to the same weather pattern that brought cold, wintry weather to the Pacific Northwest and Northern California.  Those weather conditions resulted in hundreds of cancelled flights in Seattle, where temperatures dropped into the 20s, and in massive amounts of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada mountains in California.  A strong area of high pressure anchored in the Northern Pacific resulted in a clockwise flow around it drawing warmer, more tropical air from the Pacific up to Alaska.

Climate change continues to push the envelope on what sort of weather is possible all over the world.

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Alaska faces ‘Icemageddon’ as temperatures swing wildly

Photo, posted April 30, 2015, courtesy of Naql via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

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In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Greenland Glaciers Past The Point Of No Return | Earth Wise

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Forty years of satellite data from Greenland shows that the glaciers on the island have shrunk so much that even if global warming came to an abrupt halt, the Greenland ice sheet would continue to shrink.

This conclusion was published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment by researchers at Ohio State University.  According to their study, Greenland’s glaciers have passed a tipping point where the snowfall that replenishes the ice sheet each year can no longer keep up with the ice that is flowing into the ocean from the glaciers.

The study analyzed monthly satellite data from more than 200 large glaciers that drain into the ocean around Greenland.  It looked at how much ice breaks off into icebergs or melts from the glaciers into the ocean as well as the amount of snowfall each year that replenishes the glaciers.

Throughout the 1980s and 90s, these two processes were mostly in balance, keeping the ice sheet intact.  But the amount of ice being lost each year started to increase steadily around the year 2000 while there was no increase in snowfall.   Both processes fluctuate from year to year, but the baseline for ice loss has steadily risen.  Before 2000, the Greenland ice sheet had about the same chance of gaining or losing mass each year.  At this point, the ice sheet is likely to gain mass in only one out of every 100 years.

Large glaciers in Greenland have retreated about 2 miles since 1985, so that many of them are sitting in deeper water with more ice in contact with warmer water making it harder for glaciers to grow back.  At this point, even if the climate reverses its trend, the ice sheet will continue to lose mass.

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Warming Greenland ice sheet passes point of no return

Photo, posted August 27, 2015, courtesy of Joxean Koret via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Widespread Drought | Earth Wise

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As the U.S. enters the last part of the summer, fully one-third of the country is experiencing at least a moderate level of drought.   Much of the West is reaching severe drought conditions and New England has been unusually dry and hot.  In total, over 50 million Americans are living in drought-affected areas.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor program, more than 93% of Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are experiencing drought to some degree.  More than 60% of both Utah and Colorado are in severe drought.   More than three-quarters of Oregon, Arizona, and Wyoming are also in drought.  And most of these areas had no sign of drought this time last year.

Severe drought conditions result in stunted and browning crops, limited pasture yields, dust storms, reduced well water levels, and an increase in the number and severity of wildfires.

Warm air temperatures and minimal snowfall in spring set the stage for this summer’s drought conditions.  A ridge of high pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean pushed the jet stream farther north than usual.  And, once again, there has been a failure of the southwestern monsoon in Arizona and New Mexico and the Four Corners region.  Monsoon rains provide half of the year’s precipitation in many of those areas. 

Instead, there has been extreme heat in the region.  Phoenix has already smashed the record for the most days over 110oF in a calendar year (42 as of August 18), with five months to go.  Las Vegas hasn’t seen measurable rainfall since April, and Cedar City, Utah has recorded a record low of 0.05 inches of rain this summer.

Conditions are not expected to get better for a couple of months.

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A Third of the U.S. Faces Drought

Photo, posted May 7, 2014, courtesy of Tyler Bell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cold And Snow From Global Warming

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The Arctic has been experiencing record warm temperatures and record low sea ice levels.  During February, there were nine days in a row with temperatures averaging 27 degrees above normal and often above freezing.  Over the previous 20 years, there were only two previous readings above freezing in February – once in 2011 and once last year.

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