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El Niño Will Likely Return | Earth Wise

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El Niño, a weather phenomenon triggered by warm waters in the eastern Pacific, is likely to return this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization.  The Pacific has been in the cooler La Niña phase for the past 3 years, which is unusual, but that appears to be coming to a close.  According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance that the Pacific will shift to the El Niño phase before fall.

Record hot years typically coincide with El Niño, which adds to the ongoing warming trend in the climate.   There is not yet a clear picture of how strong the forthcoming El Niño event will be or how long it might last, but even a mild El Niño could affect precipitation and temperature patterns around the world.

The hottest year on record, 2016, occurred during a particularly strong El Niño.  Experts expect that 2024 is likely to see soaring temperatures again.  El Niño generally leads to drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia, but greater amounts of rainfall in South America, the U.S., and parts of Africa.  Despite the presence of a cooling La Niña for the past three years, the last eight years have been the hottest on record.

El Niño and La Niña form an intermittent cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, that is highly influential in shaping the year-to-year variations in weather conditions around the world.  ENSO is a natural phenomenon and scientists are still trying to understand how human-caused climate change might be impacting the behavior and dynamics of the cycle.

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‘A New Spike’ in Global Temperatures in the Forecast

Photo, posted October 11, 2015, courtesy of Harshil Shah via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Storms And The Megadrought | Earth Wise

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California experienced its wettest 10-day period in 25 years as a result of a series of storms driven by atmospheric rivers in January.  The Rocky Mountains got buried in snow from the same weather pattern.   For the drought-stricken West, the storms were good news.  But they are not the cure for what’s been ailing the region.

In California, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains has been greatly enhanced, containing twice as much snow as is considered average for this time of year.  Without a doubt, it will reduce the impact of the drought that has plagued the state for 23 years.  But one big storm or even a series of them is not enough to undo years of minimal precipitation and rising temperatures.  Many of the states’ largest reservoirs remain well below historical averages despite the record-breaking rain.  It would take several wet years to really allow the state to recover from the drought.

The snowfall in the Rockies is crucial because it is the source of more than two-thirds of the water in the Colorado River.  The Colorado River is the water lifeline for 40 million people from Wyoming to Mexico.

The ongoing shrinking of the Colorado River is a crisis that has created massive problems for the multibillion-dollar agriculture industry and for many large cities, including Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles.  Two of the nation’s largest reservoirs – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – are filled by the Colorado River.  The historic low levels of these reservoirs have threatened the functioning of hydropower facilities that provide electricity to millions of people.

The January storms were good news for the West, but its problems are not over.

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This Winter’s Rain and Snow Won’t be Enough to Pull the West Out of Drought

Photo, posted September 18, 2022, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Insects In A Changing Climate | Earth Wise

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Insects can be found in every environment on Earth and are critical components of many ecosystems.  They perform countless important functions, including aerating and fertilizing soil as well as pollinating flowers.  In fact, according to the USDA, 75% of the world’s flowering plants and about 35% of the world’s food crops depend on animal pollinators, the majority of which are insects, to reproduce.

According to a study published in the journal Nature earlier this year, the combination of climate change and intensive agriculture is having a profound impact on both the abundance and diversity of insects.  In regions where substantial warming had occurred and where land had been converted for intensive farming, insects were nearly 50% less abundant and more than 25% fewer species were observed.  Tropical regions were among those most at risk for heavy losses.

According to a new study recently published in the journal Global Change Biology, tropical insects will be even more susceptible to climate change than previously thought.  In a five-year study conducted in Peru, researchers from the Florida Museum of Natural History found that insect populations declined 50% following short periods of drought and following short periods of heavy rainfall.  Insect populations decreased after three months of dry weather, but also decreased after three months of exceptionally wet weather.   

Researchers have known that tropical insects don’t tend to do well when their habitats dry out.  But the researchers were surprised to discover that these insects were equally averse to increased precipitation.  Alarmingly, precipitation is expected to become more frequent and more intense as a consequence of the changing climate. 

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Tropical insects are extremely sensitive to changing climates

Photo, posted June 11, 2016, courtesy of Z. Leng via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And The Color Of Lakes | Earth Wise

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According to a new study recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, blue lakes around the world are at risk of turning green-brown if climate change continues unabated. 

For the study, the research team used over five million satellite images of more than 85,000 lakes and reservoirs around the globe between 2013 and 2020 in order to determine each lake’s most common water color.  Since lake color can change seasonally, the researchers assessed the most frequent lake color during those seven years. 

Algae and sediments affect the color of lakes.  But the study found that precipitation, air temperature, lake depth, and elevation also play major roles in determining a lake’s most common water color. 

The research team found that blue lakes account for less than one-third of lakes worldwide.  Blue lakes tend to be deeper and are often found in cool, high latitude regions with high precipitation and winter ice cover.  Meanwhile, green-brown lakes, which account for 69% of all lakes, are found in drier regions, continental interiors, and along coastlines. 

As global temperatures rise, lakes will warm, and warmer water produces more algal blooms.  As a result, the researchers expect the changing climate to decrease the percentage of blue lakes, many of which are found in the Rocky Mountains, northeastern Canada, northern Europe and New Zealand. 

Water color is a simple but viable way to measure water quality that can be done on a global scale using satellites.  This approach provides researchers with a way to study how lakes – even the remote ones – are changing.  

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Climate change is making lakes turn green-brown

Photo, posted August 27, 2011, courtesy of Paul Schultz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Death Valley Flooding | Earth Wise

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Furnace Creek in Death Valley is the driest place in North America.  Its average annual rainfall is under two inches.  On August 5th, a thousand-year rainfall event dropped 1.46 inches of rain – about three-quarters of a year’s precipitation.  The all-time record for a single day is 1.47 inches, set in April 1988.  The storm did break the record for the most rain ever recorded in August, which averages just over a tenth of an inch of rain for the entire month.

The flash flood washed debris over roads, swept away and buried cars, knocked a water facility offline, damaged buildings, and stranded about a thousand visitors and staff in Death Valley National Park. By the next day, the flood water had mostly receded, and stranded visitors could be escorted out of the park by National Park personnel.

Death Valley sits at 282 feet below sea level.  If it were not for the extremely arid climate there, Death Valley would likely be filled with water.  However, humid air masses traveling east from the Pacific Ocean have to cross four mountain ranges before they reach the desert valley.  Those air masses lose their moisture in the form of rain on the western slopes of the mountain, leaving a dry area, or rain shadow, on the eastern sides.  By the time the air masses reach Death Valley, they are bone dry.  On rare occasions, the lowest spot in the valley fills with water forming a wide, shallow lake, known as Lake Badwater. 

The extreme heat and aridity of Death Valley evaporates the temporary lake quickly, returning the valley to its usual state.  Furnace Creek still holds the record for the highest air temperature ever recorded:  134 degrees Fahrenheit.

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Death Valley Flash Flooding

Photo, posted April 7, 2021, courtesy of Matthew Dillon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bumblebees And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Pollinators, such as bees and bats, are vital for global food production.  They provide an ecological service that’s necessary for the reproduction of nearly 75% of the world’s flowering plants, including more than two-thirds of global food crops.

Bumblebees are among the most important plant pollinators.  They pollinate many food crops, including apples, tomatoes, blueberries and legumes, as well as countless types of trees, shrubs, and wildflowers.

According to a new study by researchers from Simon Fraser University in Canada, temperature changes have negatively impacted most bumblebee species during the past 120 years.  The research, which was recently published in the journal Biology Letters, found that these changes in temperature had more of a negative impact than other factors such as precipitation or floral resources. 

The research team analyzed existing data on 46 bumblebee species across North America between 1900 and 2020.  The researchers created two occupancy models – one that was focused on time and the other that focused on environmental factors – to see how climate change and land-use variables impacted species’ occupancy.  They found that six bumblebee species decreased through time, 22 increased, and 18 remained stable.

Temperature changes had primarily negative impacts on bumblebees.  In fact, 37 of the 46 species studied exhibited declines or less positive occupancy increases under observed changes in temperature when compared with temperatures remaining constant.  Approximately half of the bumblebee species were negatively impacted by changes in precipitation or floral resources while the other half were positively impacted.

Bumblebee populations are changing as a consequence of climate change. 

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The American Bumblebee

Climate change negatively impacting bumble bees: Study

Photo, posted July 14, 2019, courtesy of Dmitry Grigoriev via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Atmosphere Is Thirstier | Earth Wise      

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The American West is in the throes of a two-decade-long drought.  The climate there is getting warmer and drier, which has led to increasing demand for water resources from both humans and ecosystems.  According to a new study by the Desert Research Institute and collaborators, the atmosphere across much of the U.S. is also demanding a greater share of water than it used to.

Evaporative demand, which is also called atmospheric thirst, is a measure of the potential loss of water from the earth’s surface up to the atmosphere.  It is a function of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.  The study, published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, assessed trends in evaporative demand during a 40-year period from 1980-2020.

The study’s findings showed substantial increases in atmospheric thirst across much of the Western U.S. over that period, with the largest increases centered around the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado rivers.  This is important because atmospheric thirst is a persistent force in pushing Western landscapes and water supplies toward drought.

The study found that, on average, increases in temperature were responsible for 57% of the changes observed in atmospheric thirst, humidity 26%, and the other factors playing lesser roles.

For farmers and other water users, increases in atmospheric thirst mean that, in the future, more water will be required to meet existing water needs.  Crops already require more water than they did in the past and can be expected to require more water in the future.  Over time, for every drop of precipitation that falls, less and less water is likely to drain into streams, wetlands, aquifers, or other water bodies.

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New study shows robust increases in atmospheric thirst across much of U.S. during past 40 years

Photo, posted August 9, 2007, courtesy of William Clifford via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cloud Seeding And The Western Drought | Earth Wise

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The massive megadrought affecting the American West is now considered to be the driest two-decade period in the past 1,200 years.  The lengthy drought has led to increased wildfires, reduced agricultural productivity, and reduced electricity generation by hydropower plants.  The historically low water levels in the largest two reservoirs in the U.S. – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – has triggered reductions in water allocations to Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico.

Several western states have expanded cloud seeding programs in an attempt to increase precipitation.  During the past two years, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and California have all stepped up their cloud seeding efforts.  Outside of the US, the United Arab Emirates and China both have implemented massive cloud seeding programs.

A study by researchers at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research looked at the ability of cloud seeding to increase snowfall.  The study unambiguously demonstrated that cloud seeding can increase snowfall.  Just how effective it is in terms of how much additional snow seeding produces is less clear.

Given the dire need for water and the fact that cloud seeding is not especially expensive, governments and other users are not hesitating to make use of it.

Unfortunately, the study shed no light on the efficacy of warm weather seeding to produce rain.  There is in fact little evidence that seeding clouds to produce rain accomplishes very much.  Once again, the prevailing view is that it is worth trying.  There do not appear to be environmental downsides to seeding.

The hope is that cloud seeding may at least restore clouds to the state they had been in before industrial pollution and other human activities affected them.

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Can Cloud Seeding Help Quench the Thirst of the U.S. West?

Photo, posted November 21, 2013, courtesy of Sharon Tate Soberon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Historic Western Drought | Earth Wise

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The American Southwest has suffered from drought conditions since the year 2000.  The drought has reduced water supplies, devastated farmers and ranchers, and it has helped to fuel numerous wildfires across the region.  It has generally been considered to be worst in 500 years.

According to a recent analysis, the drought has become so severe that it has actually led to the driest two decades in at least 1,200 years and the changing climate is largely responsible.  The summer of 2021 was especially dry; about 2/3 of the West was in severe drought conditions.

Scientists at UCLA used tree ring data to gauge drought.  Based on that analysis, 2000-2021 is the driest 22-year period since 800 A.D. which is as far back as the data goes.

The study confirmed the role of temperature, more than precipitation, in driving exceptional droughts.  Precipitation levels can go up and down over time and can vary in different regions.  But the ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are causing temperatures to generally rise over time.  Warmer temperatures make the air more capable of pulling water out of the soil, out of vegetation, out of crops, and out of forests.  All of that makes drought conditions more severe.

A megadrought is generally considered to be one that is both severe and long.  But even during one, there can be wet years.  2005 was a notable one.  But there must be enough consecutive wet years to actually end a drought.

Several previous megadroughts over the past 1,200 years lasted as long as 30 years.  So, the current drought is in full swing and may go on for a long time to come.

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How Bad Is the Western Drought? Worst in 12 Centuries, Study Finds.

Photo, posted September 25, 2021, courtesy of David Sierralupe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Bomb Cyclones | Earth Wise

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It seems like we are hearing about new weather phenomena pretty frequently these days.  One name that has popped up lately is “bomb cyclones.”  Bomb cyclones, it turns out, are storms that undergo “bombogenesis.”  What that means is a low-pressure area (in other words, a storm) that undergoes rapid strengthening and can be described as a weather bomb, or popularly, a bomb cyclone.

These things usually take place over remote tropical ocean areas but a really intense one struck the Pacific Northwest on October 24th.  The storm off the coast of Washington, with a barometric pressure reading equivalent to a category 4 hurricane, was the second extreme low-pressure storm in the North Pacific in a single week.  Both storms involved pressure drops of more than 24 millibars in 24 hours, making them bomb cyclones.

These storms brought high winds and extreme precipitation that doused wildfires and provided some relief to the extreme drought in Central and Northern California.  Along with these positive effects, however, the storms also caused power outages, flooding, landslides, and mud and debris that washed out roads.

The October 24-25 event brought 16.55 inches of rain to Mount Tamalpais in Marin County, California in a 48-hour period.  Sacramento got 5.44 inches of rain, breaking a 140-year-old record.  And the city had just broken another extreme weather record for the longest dry spell in history.

The storms directed streams of moisture from north of Hawaii toward the West Coast in long, narrow bands of moisture known as atmospheric rivers.  We are learning about all sorts of unfamiliar weather phenomena as extreme weather events become increasingly common.

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Extratropical Cyclones Drench West Coast

Photo, posted January 4, 2018, courtesy of NOAA/CIRA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Drought And U.S. Hydropower | Earth Wise

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The ongoing severe drought in the western U.S. has led to low water levels in the rivers and reservoirs that feed hydroelectric power systems.  The Energy Information Administration is projecting a 13.9% decrease in hydroelectric generation this year compared to 2020.

Water levels in Lake Powell have fallen so low that it may not be possible to operate the power plant at Glen Canyon Dam starting as soon as 2022.  California officials took the Edward Hyatt hydroelectric plant offline in August because of low water levels on Lake Oroville.   Washington, the state with the most hydroelectric power generation, has seen an 11% drop in electricity generated to date this year as compared to last year.  That state is actually doing better than others in the West, such as California, where hydro generation is down 38%.

Hydropower accounts for over 7% of the electricity generated in the United States.  Five states – Washington, Idaho, Vermont, Oregon, and South Dakota – generate at least half of their electricity from hydroelectric dams.

The current decrease in hydropower is alarming, but it is not unprecedented.  The more significant question is whether the drop in generation this year is a sign that this power source is declining and becoming less reliable.   According to some scientists, the West is in a “megadrought” that could last for decades.

The greater concern is whether the bad years are likely to become more common because of climate change.  Climate projections agree that temperatures will continue to rise, but what will happen to precipitation levels in specific places is much less certain.  That is what will determine what the future holds for hydroelectric power.

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Inside Clean Energy: Drought is Causing U.S. Hydropower to Have a Rough Year. Is This a Sign of a Long-Term Shift?

Photo, posted May 7, 2014, courtesy of Tyler Bell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Understanding Geoengineering | Earth Wise

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The most recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change includes discussion of a number of extreme and untested solutions to the climate crisis.  Among these are solar geoengineering – modifying clouds or spraying tiny reflective particles into the upper atmosphere in order to block some of the sun’s light and thereby cool the planet.  The underlying principles are relatively straightforward.

There have been various models that predict the extent to which solar geoengineering would lower the earth’s average temperature.  What hasn’t been modeled to any real extent is what other effects it would have.

The new report discusses the results of models that predict how temperatures would vary at different latitudes and how geoengineering would affect rainfall and snowfall.  According to the models, releasing sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight would lower average precipitation.  But every region would be affected differently.  Some regions would gain in an artificially cooler world, but others might, for example, suffer by no longer having suitable conditions to grow crops.

The drop in temperature would allow the planet’s carbon sinks (plants, soils, and oceans) to take up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  However, as long as people continue to pollute, carbon dioxide would continue to make the oceans more acidic, causing significant harm to marine ecosystems.  Furthermore, solar geoengineering would have to be an ongoing process that would go on indefinitely and if it were to suddenly stop, it would lead to rapid warming.

The more we learn about geoengineering, the more it becomes clear that there would be many side effects as well as serious moral, political, and practical issues.  Society has to consider if all these things represent too much danger to allow us to seriously consider such a strategy.

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In the New UN Climate Report, a Better Understanding of Solar Geoengineering

Photo, posted September 9, 2012, courtesy of Kelly Nighan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Seeds And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Farmers and agricultural communities around the world are on the frontlines of climate change.  They are among the first to feel the impacts of hotter temperatures as well as more frequent and intense droughts and precipitation. These challenges pose a massive threat to both farmer livelihoods and global food security.

As the planet continues to heat up, many arid regions that already have marginal conditions for agriculture will be increasingly under stress. As a result, researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the King Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Morocco are working on a promising new way to protect seeds from this stress during their crucial germination phase. Their simple and inexpensive process, which was recently described in a paper published in the journal Nature Food, also provides plants with extra nutrition at the same.

The research team has developed a two layer coating for seeds designed for tackling issues related to drought. Drawing inspiration from natural coatings that occur on some seeds like chia seeds, the first layer is designed to protect the seeds from drying out. It provides a gel-like coating that grips any moisture that comes along and surrounds the seed with it.  The second (inner) layer of the coating contains preserved microorganisms called rhizobacteria, as well as some nutrients to help the seeds grow. 

The materials for the coatings are biodegradable, readily-available, and often used in the food industry already.  According to researchers, early tests using common beans have demonstrated encouraging results in Morocco, and more field tests of the seeds are currently underway.

As the climate continues to change, more innovations like this will be necessary for global food security.

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Engineering seeds to resist drought

Photo, posted September 17, 2010, courtesy of Stacy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Caspian Sea And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, global sea levels have been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades.  Sea levels are currently rising about one-eighth of an inch every year.

Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to climate change:  the added water from melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the expansion of seawater as it warms.  While climate change is causing global sea levels to rise, higher temperatures in other regions are having exactly the opposite effect.  The water levels are falling.

According to researchers from the University of Bremen in Germany, the Caspian Sea is a perfect example of how a body of water will change.  While it is named a sea due to its size and high salinity, the Caspian Sea is actually a lake.  In fact, it’s the largest lake in the world.  Its largest inflow is the Volga River and it has no natural connection to the ocean.  Its water level is determined by the proportional influences of inflow, precipitation, and evaporation.  Climate change is causing increased evaporation, which leads to a declining water level. 

According to the research team, the water level of the Caspian Sea could fall by 29 to 59 feet during this century.

The Caspian Sea is surrounded by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.  It’s an important regional water reservoir, and a biological and commercial center. 

The researchers hope the Caspian Sea will be used as an example in scientific research to assess the vulnerability of other regions to falling water levels.

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Climate crisis is causing lakes to shrink

Photo, posted October 31, 2016, courtesy of Amanderson2 via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Widespread Drought | Earth Wise

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As the U.S. enters the last part of the summer, fully one-third of the country is experiencing at least a moderate level of drought.   Much of the West is reaching severe drought conditions and New England has been unusually dry and hot.  In total, over 50 million Americans are living in drought-affected areas.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor program, more than 93% of Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are experiencing drought to some degree.  More than 60% of both Utah and Colorado are in severe drought.   More than three-quarters of Oregon, Arizona, and Wyoming are also in drought.  And most of these areas had no sign of drought this time last year.

Severe drought conditions result in stunted and browning crops, limited pasture yields, dust storms, reduced well water levels, and an increase in the number and severity of wildfires.

Warm air temperatures and minimal snowfall in spring set the stage for this summer’s drought conditions.  A ridge of high pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean pushed the jet stream farther north than usual.  And, once again, there has been a failure of the southwestern monsoon in Arizona and New Mexico and the Four Corners region.  Monsoon rains provide half of the year’s precipitation in many of those areas. 

Instead, there has been extreme heat in the region.  Phoenix has already smashed the record for the most days over 110oF in a calendar year (42 as of August 18), with five months to go.  Las Vegas hasn’t seen measurable rainfall since April, and Cedar City, Utah has recorded a record low of 0.05 inches of rain this summer.

Conditions are not expected to get better for a couple of months.

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A Third of the U.S. Faces Drought

Photo, posted May 7, 2014, courtesy of Tyler Bell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Geoengineering And Volcanoes

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Solar geoengineering is a theoretical strategy for curbing the effects of climate change by introducing aerosol particles in the upper atmosphere to reflect some of the Sun’s radiation back into space and thereby cool the planet.  It would basically be intentionally tinkering with the climate system on a global scale.

The concept is fraught with the danger of unintended consequences and most experts consider the idea almost unthinkable.  But there are those who see it as a last resort if all our other efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change are unsuccessful.

Proponents of the idea like to describe the technique as being like a human-made volcano.  Major volcanic eruptions spew ash particles into the atmosphere which can linger for as long as a few years.  The result is cooler temperatures, sometimes across much of the globe.  The Krakatoa eruption of 1883 lowered average Northern Hemisphere temperatures by more than 2 degrees and created chaotic weather patterns until about 1888.

Researchers at the Carnegie Institution and two Chinese research institutions used sophisticated modeling techniques to compare the effects on the climate of a volcanic eruption with long-term geoengineering deployment.

They found that the volcanic eruption created a greater temperature difference between the land and sea than the geoengineering and resulted in very different precipitation scenarios.  In both cases, there would be less available water for people on land.

Overall, the study demonstrated that volcanic eruptions are imperfect analogs for geoengineering and that scientists should be very cautious about extrapolating too much from them.  It is important to evaluate geoengineering from an informed position, but the truth is that it represents a great and perilous unknown.

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Geoengineering Versus A Volcano

Photo, posted November 1, 2002, courtesy of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

An Upside Of Climate Change

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In contrast with most countries in the world, the main political factions in the United States have very different views of climate change.  Somehow, one side of the aisle remains skeptical about the changing climate even as temperature records are broken, arctic ice disappears, and powerful storms become increasingly common.

But putting aside the increasingly inexplicable political schism about climate change, there are instances where the consequences of the warming climate are not all dire.  In fact, there are places where climate change is having a positive effect.

One such place is West Virginia, where research studies are finding a real upside to the changing climate.

A recent study of the climate in West Virginia over the period from 1900 to 2016 found the maximum temperatures trended downward, average minimum temperatures ascended, and annual precipitation increased.  On average, West Virginians are now seeing cooler summers, warmer winters and wetter weather.

Given these changes, there have been big changes in agriculture.  Yields of important crops like hay, corn, winter wheat, and soybeans have all increased.  The winter season has shrunk by as much as 20 days and the growing season itself has increased by approximately 13 days.  A number of crops that historically did not fare well in West Virginia may now become viable.  It may even be possible to pursue double cropping, meaning that the longer growing season may allow farmers to raise one crop, harvest it, and then raise and harvest a second crop within the same year.

In the big picture, climate change is shaping up as a global calamity, but for a few people in certain places – such as West Virginia – it may have some real upside.

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The positive implications of…climate change? WVU researcher sees agricultural, food availability and economic possibilities

Photo, posted November 12, 2014, courtesy of Mike via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The ‘Biggest Ever’ Arctic Expedition

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The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth.  In fact, it’s warming at a rate of almost twice the global average.  And, since what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic, the world is already feeling the effects: rising sea levels, changes in climate and precipitation patterns, increasing severe weather events, and so on. 

As a result, researchers from more than a dozen countries have launched the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the Arctic.  They plan to freeze Germany’s largest research vessel, the Polarstern, into Arctic sea ice, where it will remain trapped for twelve months.  The ship will drift with the sea ice as the sea ice drifts.  The vessel will serve as a research laboratory, hosting a rotating crew of 300 scientists.  The ice, the ocean, the atmosphere, and even the wildlife will all be sampled.  This year-long journey will give researchers their closest look at how the polar climate and its fragile ecosystems are changing. 

Led by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate project (or MOSAiC) is expected to cost about $150 million. 

One major goal of MOSAiC is to improve strikingly uncertain climate projections for the Arctic.  Climate models disagree on how much more the Arctic will warm as the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises and sea ice shrinks.  Some project a 5ºC rise by 2100 relative to the 1986-2005 average.  Others predict a 10ºC increase. 

Understanding the complex processes occurring in the Arctic is essential for projecting the future impacts of climate change. 

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Climate scientists prepare for largest ever Arctic expedition

Climate change: Polarstern leaves for ‘biggest ever’ Arctic expedition

Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Intense Rainfall And Crops

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The warming of the planet does not necessarily imply local weather will be warmer or drier than average.  While heatwaves and droughts are increasingly common events in many places, so are intense rain events.

A new study led by scientists at the University of Illinois has found that intense rainfall is as damaging to the U.S. agricultural sector as heatwaves and excessive droughts.

The study examined more than three decades of crop insurance, climate, soil, and corn yield data.  Researchers found that since 1981, corn yields in the U.S. Midwest were reduced by as much as 34% during years with excessive rainfall.  Years with drought and heatwaves experienced yield losses of up to 37%.

Intense rain events can physically damage crops, delay planting and harvesting, restrict root growth, and cause oxygen deficiency and nutrient loss.  The study estimated that between 1989 and 2016, excessive rainfall caused $10 billion in agricultural losses. However, excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield and the effects can vary regionally.

Parts of the Midwest have already experienced a 42% increase in the heaviest precipitation events since 1958.  Climate change models predict that much of this region will experience even more frequent and intense precipitation events in the coming decade.

According to the study, excessive rainfall is the major cause of crop damage currently in the U.S. for corn, and also has broad impacts for other staple crops such as soybeans and wheat. The authors suggest that as rainfall becomes more extreme, reforms will be needed in the U.S. crop insurance industry in order to better meet planting challenges faced by farmers. 

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Intense Rainfall Is As Damaging to Crops As Heatwaves and Drought, and Climate Change Is Making It Worse

Photo, posted October 2, 2013, courtesy of the United Soybean Board via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)