Earth Wise

A look at our changing environment.

You are here: Home / Archives for projections

projections

Extreme heat and dairy production

By Leave a Comment

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense heat waves in the United States. Studies show that not only are heat waves now occurring more often, but that the average heat wave season is nearly 50 days longer now than it was in the 1960s.  The overall rise in temperatures, linked to climate change, has led to increased health risks and fatalities from extreme heat. 

As humans face increasing health risks from this extreme heat, livestock are also suffering from the effects of rising temperatures.  Extreme heat negatively impacts dairy production by causing heat stress in cows, which can reduce milk yield, quality, and the cows’ overall health.

A new study by researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign analyzed milk production data from 18,000 dairy farms across nine Midwest states between 2012 and 2016.  The researchers found that high heat and humidity have led to a 1% decline in annual milk yield. While this might not sound like a lot, it amounts to about 1.4 billion pounds of milk over five years from the 18,000 herds included in the study – equivalent to about $245 million in lost revenue.

The study, which was recently published in the journal Food Policy, found that small farms are hit harder than large farms.  Larger farms may be able to mitigate some of the effects through management strategies, such as open barn sides, fans, and sprinklers.

Using projections from 22 different climate models, the research team estimates that more frequent extreme heat will increase milk yield losses by about 30% by 2050. 

**********

Web Links

Illinois study: Extreme heat impacts dairy production, small farms most vulnerable

Photo, posted March 13, 2018, courtesy of Gosdin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How much energy storage is needed?

By Leave a Comment

Energy storage is a critical aspect of modern energy systems as they move towards heavy dependence on renewable sources such as solar and wind that don’t produce energy at the same rate all the time.  Excess energy generated by solar power needs to be stored for when the sun isn’t shining; excess wind energy needs to be stored for when the wind isn’t blowing.  But how much storage capacity does the energy system need to have?

Researchers at North Carolina State University have developed a model that can be used to project what a system’s storage needs would be if it were to shift entirely to renewable sources.

The model accounts for how energy production from renewable sources would change during different times of day and different times of the year.  For example, there is much more solar energy generation in the summer when the days are longer, and it is sunny more often.

There is also the issue of short-term vs. long-term energy storage.  Short-term energy storage does not refer to how long a storage device can store the energy.  It refers to how long it can provide power at its rated level.

The study focused on Italy’s energy system, which has suffered in recent years because it had difficulties in obtaining natural gas from Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.

As the world moves increasingly towards renewable power sources, energy systems need to be able to account for the variability of those sources.  The new model offers policymakers critical information for use in energy system planning.

**********

Web Links

Model Projects Energy Storage Needs for Fossil Fuel-Free Energy System

Photo, posted October 28, 2016, courtesy of Daxis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

One in five cars will be electric this year

By Leave a Comment

There has been lots of turbulence in the electric car industry of late.  Part of it is aggressive publicity campaigns spreading misinformation and part of it is the natural fits and starts associated with major change.  But apart from the ups and downs of individual companies and countries, analysts are projecting another record year for the sales of electric vehicles and are expecting that plug-in cars will account for 20% of all car sales globally.  Much of the growth will be driven by China, where 38% of new car sales will be electric cars.

Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21% this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.  Total projected sales are 16.7 million cars, including 1.9 million in the U.S., 3.4 million in Europe, and 9.7 million in China.  Because of the rapid adoption of electric cars in China, that country is expected to reach peak gasoline demand this year.  In other words, the use of gasoline in China will be diminishing from now on.

The auto industry is in flux.  The traditional big automakers are currently slowing down EV manufacturing as they work to come up to speed with the technology and market demand.  Meanwhile, EV-only carmakers such as Tesla in the U.S. and BYD in China are ratcheting up production. BYD is focusing on emerging economies with its lower-priced offerings.

In the U.S., EV adoption has been slowed somewhat by high interest rates and the slow rollout of EVs by the Big Three automakers.  But many new vehicles by a growing list of automakers will provide customers with more and more choices of EVs to suit diverse tastes and needs.

**********

Web Links

This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Photo, posted November 18, 2023, courtesy of RL via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

What did the record warmth of 2023 mean?

By Leave a Comment

2023 was the warmest year in the 174 years of global temperature record-keeping.  According to some analyses, it may have been the warmest year in the past 125,000 years.

There were incredible heatwaves in Arizona and Argentina.  There were relentless wildfires across Canada.  The wintertime ice coverage in the seas surrounding Antarctica was at unprecedented lows

The global temperatures in 2023 did not just beat prior records; they smashed them.  Every month from June through November set all-time monthly temperature records. The US Northeast saw springlike temperatures at the end of the year.  The high temperature in Buffalo, New York on Christmas Day was 58 degrees.

Climate scientists have been predicting the warming trend that has been ongoing over the past several decades.  Indeed, computational models for 2023 called for a warm year.  Various models had a variety of projected temperatures and 2023’s heat was still broadly within the range of what was projected, although certainly at the high end.

The question is whether last year was an indicator that the planet’s warming is accelerating faster than we expect or that it just was a particularly warm year because of cyclical factors such as the El Niño that appeared last spring.

One theory that is being explored is that various types of industrial pollution have previously actually served to cool the atmosphere over time and as those sources are reduced for public health reasons, the warming effects of greenhouse gases have accelerated.

Currently, there is no consensus about why it seems to be getting warmer even faster than many climate models predict.  What there is no doubt about is that it is not a good thing.

**********

Web Links

Earth Was Due for Another Year of Record Warmth. But This Warm?

Photo, posted June 8, 2023, courtesy of Anthony Quintano via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Explosive Growth Of Electric Vehicles | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Not long ago, electric cars were a rarity.  Ten years ago, annual global sales of EVs were only a few hundred thousand.  As of today, globally, still less than one percent of all the cars on the road are electric.  But that is changing rapidly.

In fact, electric vehicles are expected to capture nearly 20% of the global market this year.  Global sales of EVs were 3 million in 2020 and 6.6 million in 2021.  Last year, sales of electric vehicles hit 10 million and are expected to reach 14 million this year according to the International Energy Agency.

Analysts at the IEA have had to repeatedly revise their projections for future EV sales as the numbers keep going up faster than predicted.  Last year, they projected that EVs would account for 21% of global sales by 2030.  Now, they expect that EVs will reach 35% of sales by that year.

In the US, the EU, and China, policy efforts are in place to boost EV sales.  In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act both supports the EV industry and subsidizes consumer purchases with tax credits. As a result of such policies, the IEA expects electric vehicles to account for 60% of sales across these three large markets by 2030.

Part of what is driving the boom in EV sales is that prices continue to come down for the vehicles.  When operating and maintenance costs are figured in, the EVs come out considerably cheaper to own.  In addition, there are starting to be price wars in the EV industry as competition heats up in the sector.

**********

Web Links

EVs to Capture One-Fifth of Global Market This Year Amid ‘Explosive Growth’

Photo, posted May 7, 2022, courtesy of Sharon Hahn Darlin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average.  In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events.  The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea.   Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature.  On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm.  Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict.  The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes.   There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

**********

Web Links

Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Harvesting Fresh Water From Ocean Air | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Roughly three-quarters of the world population has access to a safely managed water source.  That means that one-in-four people do not have access to safe drinking water.  Even in the wealthy United States, persistent drought in the west is creating problems in places like Phoenix, Arizona.

Water is plentiful on Earth but more than 99% of it is unusable by humans and many other living things because it is saline, frozen, or inaccessible.  Only about 0.3% of our fresh water is found in the surface water of lakes, rivers, and swamps.

There is an almost limitless supply of fresh water in the form of water vapor above the oceans, but this source is untapped.  Researchers at the University of Illinois have been evaluating the feasibility of a hypothetical structure capable of capturing water vapor from above the ocean and condensing it into fresh water.

Existing ways to obtain fresh water like wastewater recycling, cloud seeding, and desalination have met only limited success and present various problems with regard to cost, environmental impact, and scalability.

The researchers have proposed hypothetical large offshore structures measuring 700 feet by 300 feet to capture water vapor that is continually evaporating from the ocean in subtropical regions.   Their modeling concluded that such structures could provide fresh water for large population centers in the subtropics.  Furthermore, climate projections show that the amount of water vapor over the oceans will only increase over time, providing even more fresh water supply.

This is only a theoretical study at this point, but the researchers believe it opens the door for novel infrastructure investments that could address global water scarcity.

**********

Web Links

Researchers propose new structures to harvest untapped source of fresh water

Photo, posted June 28, 2009, courtesy of Nicolas Raymond via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Renewables Will Overtake Coal | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, worldwide growth in renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years.  In fact, by 2027, the world will add as much renewable power as it did over the previous 20 years.

Of particular significance is that renewables are going to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by early 2025.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has had multiple effects on the evolution of the energy system.  While the war has driven a resurgence in fossil fuel consumption in Europe in order to replace gas from Russia, that resurgence is expected to be short-lived.  Instead, the current energy crisis may turn out to be an historic turning point toward a cleaner and more secure energy system.

Soaring fossil-fuel prices triggered by the war have caused many countries to respond by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, and electric heat pumps.  In the US, Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for clean energy technologies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.  China, India, South Korea, and Japan have all increased their national targets for renewable power.   However, heating and cooling buildings with renewable power remains a sector needing larger improvement, according to the energy agency.

Overall, the expansion of renewable power over the next five years is now projected to happen much faster than what was projected just one year ago. The new IEA report revised last year’s forecast for renewables growth by 30% as a result of the introduction of new policies by many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters.

**********

Web Links

Renewables Will Overtake Coal by Early 2025, Energy Agency Says

Photo, posted March 8, 2021, courtesy of Stanze via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Energy Storage Boom | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Global energy storage deployment is increasing at a very rapid pace.  According to recent industry forecasts, there will be 12.4 gigawatts of new energy storage capacity online in 2021 breaking the previous annual record of 4.9 gigawatts set last year.

To understand these numbers, the world only reached 1 gigawatt of new capacity in a year for the first time in 2016.  Five years later, 1 gigawatt represents a good month.

Industry projections are that new global storage capacity will increase each year, reaching 70 gigawatts by 2030.

Almost all of this new storage capacity is in the form of batteries and most of that is lithium-ion batteries.  The largest battery storage facility in the world – the Manatee Energy Storage Center in Florida – is scheduled to be completed before the end of this year.  But there are other battery technologies that offer promise and there are other storage technologies apart from batteries.

Pumped hydroelectric storage is long established technology that still represents the largest amount of storage capacity in the world with more than 181 GW of capacity.  There is not much room for expansion of pumped hydro, which is limited to specific locations.   But it will be years before battery storage catches up to this total.

The United States and China have a large majority of energy storage capacity and projections are that the two countries will still have nearly three-quarters of the world’s total capacity in 2030.

With the ongoing rapid expansion of wind and solar power, the need for energy storage continues to grow and is the driving force for the energy storage boom.   It is not clear how it will all shake out, but energy storage is going to be a big deal from now on.

**********

Web Links

Inside Clean Energy: Taking Stock of the Energy Storage Boom Happening Right Now

Photo, posted March 15, 2013, courtesy of Portland General Electric via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Importance Of Urban Green Spaces | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Projections are that 68% of the global population will be living in cities by 2050.  It is therefore not surprising that urban green spaces are critically important for promoting mental and physical well-being.

An international study, published in Science Advances, took soil samples from different types of urban green spaces and comparable neighboring natural ecosystems in 56 cities from 17 countries across six continents.

The study concluded that even roadside plantings contribute a range of important microbial communities that are critical for sustaining productive ecosystems services, such as filtering pollutants and sequestering carbon dioxide.

Parks and gardens constitute most of the open spaces available for recreational activities in cities and play important roles in curbing pollution, reducing noise, and lowering air temperatures.

In addition, human exposure to soil microbes has been shown to be beneficial to human health by promoting effective immunoregulation functions and reducing allergies. The study found that city parks and even roadside plantings support a great variety of different microbes that are different from natural ecosystems. 

We think of roadsides as being barren but the vegetation along footpaths and roadsides are important microbial habitats.  Some European cities, such as Bern in Switzerland, have instituted policies to protect the natural vegetation along footpaths and roadsides.

The new study is a part of a series of research efforts looking at the important of green spaces for ecosystem health.  As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, every bit of greenery in cities and highways is important and is needed for sustaining a healthy environment.

***********

Web Links

Every spot of urban green space counts

Photo, posted June 3, 2013, courtesy of Manuel MV via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Progress Towards Carbon-Free Power | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Climate change has driven countries, states, utilities, and corporations to set goals to eliminate power-sector carbon emissions.  So far, 17 U.S. states plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico have adopted laws or executive orders to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity over the next couple of decades.  Forty-six U.S. utilities have pledged to go carbon-free no later than 2050.   Adding these together, these government and industry goals cover about half of the U.S. population and economy.

New research from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has analyzed historical trends to determine how much progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions.  The study focused on the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook from the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration.

If the previous growth in emissions had continued from 2005 to 2020, annual CO2 emissions would have risen from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons.  But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 metric tons.  So, by this metric, the U.S. power sector cut emission by 52% below projected levels.

According to the study, total consumer electricity costs were 18% lower than projected values, but meanwhile, the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. 

Among the driving forces for these trends were wind and solar power dramatically outperforming earlier expectations, delivering 13 times more generation in 2020 than projected. 

The study shows that dramatic changes in emissions are possible over a 15-year span, but much has to happen over the next 15 years to ensure the progress required to meet the ambitious goals set for emissions reductions.

**********

Web Links

U.S. Power Sector is Halfway to Zero Carbon Emissions

Photo, posted April 18, 2020, courtesy of Roman Ranniew via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Ocean Currents And Climate Change | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Oceans cover more than 70% of the earth and absorb 94% of incoming solar radiation.  As a result, oceans play a major role in the climate system.  With their massive size and capacity to store heat, oceans help keep temperature fluctuations in check.  But oceans also play a more active role.  Ocean currents are responsible for moving vast amounts of heat around the planet.  

According to a paper recently published in the journal Nature Communications, the world’s strongest ocean currents will experience more intense marine heatwaves than the global average in the coming decades.  These strong ocean currents play key roles in fisheries and ocean ecosystems.  

Sections of the Gulf Stream near the United States, the Kuroshio Current near Japan, the East Australian Current near Australia, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current will all see more intense marine heatwaves over the next 30 years. 

Scientists from the University of Tasmania and CSIRO in Australia relied on high-resolution ocean modeling to carry out their research.  They confirmed the model’s accuracy by comparing outputs with observations from 1982-2018.  They then used the same model to project how marine heatwaves would alter with climate change out to 2050.

The model projects, for example, that intense marine heatwaves are more likely to form well off the coast of Tasmania, while more intense marine heatwaves along the Gulf Stream start to appear more frequently close to the shore from Virginia to New Brunswick, Canada. 

Marine heatwaves are on the rise globally, but knowing where they will occur and how much hotter they will be will help policymakers, ecologists, and fisheries experts in their regional decision-making. 

**********

Web Links

Where marine heatwaves will intensify fastest: New analysis

Photo, posted April 17, 2016, courtesy of Nicolas Henderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Tropical Forests As Carbon Sinks | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Tropical forests are an important part of the global carbon cycle because they take up and store large amounts of carbon dioxide.  Because of this, deforestation in the Amazon and other tropical forests is a major contributor to the growing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Therefore, climate models need to accurately take into account the ability of tropical forests to sequester carbon.  It turns out that this is not such a simple matter.  A new study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis sought to determine how much detail about tropical forests is needed in order to make valid assumptions about the strength of forest carbon sinks.

They looked at the role of both biotic factors – differences between plant species that are responsible for capturing more or less carbon from the atmosphere – and abiotic factors – local environmental factors like soil properties that also influence carbon sink strength.

It is generally assumed that more diverse forest communities capture available resources more efficiently as a result of complementary characteristics and preferences of certain species to specific conditions.  Factors like soil texture and chemistry are also important.  In general, the results show that abiotic and biotic factors interact with one another to determine how much carbon can be stored by the ecosystem.

Traditional projections of the role of tropical forests in storing carbon mostly rely on remote sensing techniques that integrate over large spatial areas.  The new study shows that there can be large differences in the carbon storing ability of tropical forests and that more detailed models are needed to produce more accurate projections.

**********

Web Links

Shedding light on how much carbon tropical forests can absorb

Photo, posted July 17, 2014, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Clouds And Global Warming | Earth Wise

By Leave a Comment

Recent climate models from multiple organizations project that the amount of warming that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause would be much more than previously estimated.  And one of the significant changes to the models relates to the role of clouds.

Clouds have long been a major uncertainty in climate calculations.  Clouds can shade the earth and thereby provide cooling.  But clouds can also trap heat.  Which effect dominates depends on how reflective the clouds are, how high up they are, and whether it is day or night.  The dynamics of clouds are complicated.

If you fly across the ocean, you will see blankets of low clouds extending for hundreds of miles.  These marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds predominantly cool the Earth.  In fact, they shade roughly a fifth of the oceans and reflect 30-60% of the solar radiation that hits them back into space.

Recent studies indicate that as global temperatures rise, these clouds are likely to become thinner or burn off entirely, leaving more clear skies through which the sun may add another degree Celsius or more to global warming.

The concerns about clouds are part of the larger issue about feedbacks in warming the world.  It has long been clear that the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere would raise global temperature.  But there are amplifying feedback effects.  Melting large areas of snow and ice reduces reflectivity and allows the land and oceans to absorb more heat.  More water vapor entering the atmosphere traps more heat.  And now clouds are another concern.

Overall, these effects are leading to climate models predicting much larger global temperature increases, which is a scary prospect for the world.

**********

Web Links

Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

Photo, posted September 10, 2006, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Rising Seas Will Erase Cities

By Leave a Comment

According to new research, climate-driven sea level rise could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought.  This sobering assessment means some of the world’s great coastal cities, including Bangkok, Shanghai, Mumbai, Basra, Alexandria, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be in big trouble.   

Scientists have always relied on land elevation data to determine the effects of sea level rise over large areas.  But standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings.  The authors of the paper developed a more accurate way to calculate land elevation by using artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and to correct for it.  The new findings revealed that 150 million people – three times more than previously thought – are now living on land that is projected to be below the high-tide line by the middle of this century. 

Eight Asian nations – China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan – account for about 70% of the people living on at-risk land. 

More than 20 million people in Vietnam, including much of Ho Chi Minh City, live on land that will be inundated by 2050.  In Thailand, more than 10% of its citizens, including much of Bangkok, currently live on land imperiled by projected sea level rise. 

This new research was produced by Climate Central, a New Jersey-based science organization, and was recently published in the journal Nature Communications. 

Sea level rise is clearly not just an environmental problem.  It’s a humanitarian crisis.

**********  

Web Links

New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

Photo, posted December 18, 2009, courtesy of Misko via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Arctic As A Carbon Source

By Leave a Comment

According to a new NASA-funded study, the Arctic may now be a source for carbon in the atmosphere rather than being the sink for it that is has been for tens of thousands of years.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, warns that carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by more than 40% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.  Worse yet, carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not even been included in most climate models.

Permafrost is the carbon-rich frozen soil and organic matter that covers nearly a quarter of Northern Hemisphere land area, mostly in Alaska, Canada, Siberia, and Greenland.  Permafrost holds more carbon than has ever been released by humans from fossil fuel burning, but it has been safely locked away by ice for tens of thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost is starting to thaw and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The recent findings indicate that the loss of carbon dioxide during the winter in the Arctic may already be offsetting carbon uptake during the growing season.  The researchers compiled on-the-ground observations of carbon dioxide emissions across many sites and combined these with remote sensing data and modeling.  They estimate that the permafrost region is now losing 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon during the winter season but taking up only 1 billion during the growing season.

The major concern is that as the Arctic continues to warm, more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will further the warming.  Climate modeling teams across the globe are trying to incorporate these findings into their projections.

**********

Web Links

Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions

Photo, posted July 27, 2015, courtesy of Gary Bembridge via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Maple Syrup And Climate Change

By Leave a Comment

According to a study recently published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, scientists are predicting another casualty of climate change: the U.S. maple industry.  By the year 2100, the maple syrup season in the United States may be less productive and arrive one month earlier than it has between 1950 and 2017.

Maple syrup production is impacted by two climate-sensitive factors: sugar content and sap flow.  Sugar content is determined by the previous year’s carbohydrate stores.  Sap flow depends on the freeze/thaw cycle.  Sap begins to flow in sugar maples when winter nights dip below freezing and the days warm above freezing.

The researchers studied six sugar maple stands from Virginia to Quebec, Canada over a six year period.  They created a model that predicted the timing of optimal sap flow based on historical temperature data on freeze/thaw days, actual sap collection from their field work, and monthly climate. 

According to modeling projections, the maple syrup season is expected to be, on average, one month earlier by the end of the century.  States like Indiana and Virginia will barely produce any sap.  New Hampshire and Vermont are likely to be least affected, but are still expected to experience a decrease in production.  In fact, most areas of maple production in the United States are projected to see decreases in production by the year 2100, while areas in northern Ontario and Quebec should see moderate to large increases in production. 

Currently, Canada is responsible for approximately 80% of global maple syrup production while the U.S. produces 20%.  The shifting climate for optimal maple production will leave many scrambling to find the sweet spot. 

**********

Web Links

Climate change study finds that maple syrup season may come earlier

Photo, posted March 24, 2019, courtesy of Paul VanDerWerf via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Energy Demand

By Leave a Comment

Human beings are utterly dependent upon energy both for our well-being and for societal development.  Our energy use is highly dependent upon climate since so much energy is expended either keeping us warm in winter or cool in summer.  As the climate changes, it is important to understand how energy demand is likely to be affected.

A new study published in Nature Communications by researchers in Austria, Italy and the United States explored this topic.  The study is a global analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.  The purpose was to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios by the year 2050.

The findings indicate that, compared to scenarios in which energy demand is driven only by population and income growth, climate change will increase the global demand for energy by 11-27% by the year 2050 under a modest warming scenario.  With vigorous climate warming, energy demand would increase by 25-58%.  (Large areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China, and the US are likely to experience the highest increases).

These findings are important because if energy use rises and leads to additional emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, it will be increasingly difficult to mitigate future climate warming.  Quantifying this risk provides even more incentive for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before these effects upon demand are realized and it becomes even more difficult to prevent further impacts.

Policymakers need to be aware that even moderate levels of climate change will lead to increases in energy demand that will make it increasingly difficult to minimize the harmful effects on their societies.

**********

Web Links

More energy needed to cope with climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2008, courtesy of Matt Hintsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)