predictions

Record Polar Ice Melting | Earth Wise

May 30, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Sea levels are rising and ocean warming is responsible for the bulk of that rise. As water heats up, it expands, which drives up sea levels. But on top of that, global warming is melting the polar ice sheets, and that is leading to about a quarter of the world’s sea level rise. So far, polar melting has fueled about an inch of sea level rise, two-thirds from Greenland and one third from Antarctica. According to scientists, by the end of this century, melting polar ice caps could raise sea levels between 6 and 10 inches.

The seven worst years for polar ice sheet melting have occurred during the past decade. The worst year on record was 2019. The loss in 2019 was driven by an Arctic summer heatwave, which resulted in record melting from Greenland, amounting to nearly 500 billion tons melted that year. Antarctica lost 180 billion tons of ice that year, mostly due to melting glaciers and record melting from the Antarctic Peninsula.

Ice losses from Greenland and Antarctica can now be reliably measured by satellites in space. A team of researchers led by Northumbria University in the UK has combined 50 satellite surveys taken between 1992 and 2020.

They have found that the Earth’s polar ice sheets have lost over 8,000 billion tons of ice over that time period. That much ice corresponds to an ice cube roughly 12 miles high.

The satellite technology is now at the stage where the ice sheet status can be continuously updated. Such monitoring is critical to predict the future behavior of the ice sheets and provide risk warnings of the dangers that coastal communities around the world will face.

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Polar ice sheet melting records have toppled during the past decade

Photo, posted December 19, 2017, courtesy of Jasmine Nears via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Arctic Warming And Weather At Mid-Latitudes | Earth Wise

May 18, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Some of the most striking images of climate change are those of melting glaciers in the Arctic and polar bears stranded on shrinking sea ice. The Arctic has been warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average. In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the Arctic’s role in driving extreme weather events in other parts of the world.

Winters in the midlatitude regions have seen more extreme weather events. The past winter saw record-breaking cold temperatures and snowfall in Japan, China, and Korea. Many parts of Eurasia and North America experienced severe cold snaps, with heavy snowfall and prolonged periods of subzero temperature. On the other hand, Europe saw its second warmest winter on record with record high temperatures in many places, much drier than normal conditions, and the closure of many ski resorts.

A study published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by scientists from South Korea and the U.S. looked at various climate projection models as well as historic climate data to assess what is likely to happen to weather in the mid-latitudes as the Arctic continues to warm. Warmer Arctic Sea temperatures usually result in lower winter temperatures in East Asia and North America as ocean currents and the jet streams are altered.

The study shows that Arctic warming-triggered cold waves in the mid-latitudes are likely to persist in a warmer future, but that such events will become more difficult to predict. The study highlights the importance of continued efforts to better understand the interactions between Arctic warming and the climate of the midlatitudes. There need to be better ways to predict the extreme weather events that are likely to come.

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Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Researchers Correlate Arctic Warming to Extreme Winter Weather in Midlatitude and Its Future

Photo, posted August 31, 2006, courtesy of Hillebrand / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

California Flooding | Earth Wise

February 2, 2023 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Starting in December, a series of “atmospheric rivers” brought record storms to California producing as much rain in three weeks in some areas as they normally have in an entire year. The historic levels of rain (and snow in the mountains) have swollen rivers, flooded roads and homes, forced evacuations, knocked out electric power for millions of people, and resulted in more than 20 deaths.

Atmospheric rivers are air currents that carry large amounts of water vapor through the sky. They are not unusual for California but recurrent waves of them like those that have happened recently are very infrequent. Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that such a phenomenon recurs in California every 250 years. There were a series of storms causing disastrous floods in California in 1861-62.

The atmospheric rivers are born in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific. During La Nina phases, the atmospheric rivers typically make landfall on the northern West Coast. During El Nino phases, atmospheric rivers are more likely to end up in Southern and Central California. During transitions between the phases, as is happening now, the storms can cover large parts of the state.

Modern forecasting is pretty good at predicting the forthcoming occurrence of these storms and has led to some helpful actions, such as reservoir operators preventing dams from overflowing or bursting. But there is a gap between science and decision-making. It is pretty clear what needs to be done when tornados or hurricanes are on the way. It is less clear what actions are appropriate when there are going to be repeated heavy rainstorms.

These storms will have an effect on California’s megadrought, but just how much of an effect remains to be seen.

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Flooding in California: What Went Wrong, and What Comes Next

Photo, posted January 5, 2023, courtesy of Sarah Stierch via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global Stilling | Earth Wise

October 20, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

During the summer of 2021, much of Europe experienced a “wind drought” – wind speeds in many places were about 15% below average. In the UK in particular, winds were unusually calm and wind energy production was dramatically reduced.

Globally, wind speeds have been dropping by about 2.3% per decade since the 1970s. In 2019, however, global average windspeeds actually increased by about 6%. The question is whether a trend of slowing winds – so-called global stilling – is associated with climate change or is just natural variability in action.

Wind results from uneven temperatures in air masses. Much of the world’s wind comes from the difference between the cold air at the poles and the warm air at the tropics. Because the Arctic is warming much faster than the tropics, it is possible that winds will continue to decline around the world.

Another factor people cite is the increase in surface roughness. The number and size of urban buildings continues to increase, which acts as a drag on winds.

Some models predict that wind speeds will decrease over much of the western U.S. and East Coast, but the central U.S. will see an increase. Experts do not all agree about what is happening with global winds. Many believe that the observed changes to date have been within the range of variability. Furthermore, some places have been windier than usual.

All of this really matters for many reasons. Europe is increasingly dependent upon wind power as an alternative to fossil fuels. A 10% drop in wind speed results in a 30% drop in energy generation. Whatever their cause may be, wind droughts cannot be ignored.

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Global ‘Stilling’: Is Climate Change Slowing Down the Wind?

Photo, posted June 28, 2008, courtesy of Patrick Finnegan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Vanishing Arctic Lakes | Earth Wise

September 28, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world. The phenomenon is known as Arctic amplification. A study by the Finnish Meteorological Institute published in August in Communications Earth & Environment determined that during the past 43 years, the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe. The result of this amplified warming has been that glaciers are collapsing, wildlife is struggling, and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace.

Research published by the University of Florida has identified a new threat associated with Arctic amplification: lakes in the Arctic are drying up.

Over the past 20 years, many Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried up completely across the entire pan-Arctic region, which spans the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia, and Alaska.

Arctic lakes are essential elements of the Arctic ecosystem and for the indigenous communities that live in the region. They provide a critical source of fresh water for those communities and local industries.

The rapid decline of Arctic lakes is unexpected. Earlier predictions were that climate change would first actually expand lakes in the region as ground ice melted. Lakes drying out was not expected until much later in this century or even in the 22^nd century. Instead, it appears that thawing permafrost may drain lakes and overwhelm the expansion effect caused by melting ice. The theory is that thawing permafrost decreases lake area by creating drainage channels and increasing soil erosion.

The finding suggest that permafrost thawing is occurring faster than anticipated, which presents many additional problems.

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As the climate crisis intensifies, lakes across the Arctic are vanishing

Photo, posted June 20, 2014, courtesy of Bob Wick / Bureau of Land Management via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

A Hot July | Earth Wise

August 24, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

At the beginning of July, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s monthly climate outlook predicted temperatures well above average across much of the United States. The prediction was quite correct. Beyond that, world-wide, there were multiple heat waves, especially in Europe and Asia, where there were thousands of heat-related deaths. On July 19th, the United Kingdom had its hottest day ever reported with a temperature over 104 degrees.

In the U.S., a series of atmospheric high-pressure systems resulted in stagnant heat domes, which resulted in more than 150 million people living under heat warnings and advisories. Nearly every part of the continental U.S. saw above-average temperatures. There were record-breaking triple-digit highs in several states, sometimes persisting for days.

The south-central part of the country developed a ridge of high pressure that established a heat dome that acted like a lid, trapping hot air over that area. The extreme heat persisted throughout the month, at times expanding to the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

In the second half of the month, the Great Plains experienced temperatures as high as 115 degrees. Utah and Oklahoma both broke long-standing records for the most consecutive days on which temperatures exceeded 100 degrees. Utah saw 16 straight days over 100.

In the Pacific Northwest temperatures reached 110 degrees in Dallasport, Washington, and 114 in Medford, Oregon. In the Northeast, Newark, New Jersey saw a record-breaking five straight days over 100 degrees.

In Albany, New York, where the average daily high temperature is 82 degrees in July, there were 10 days in the 90s, with highs of 97 on three occasions.

July was a hot month indeed.

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A July of Extremes

Photo, posted July 10, 2022, courtesy of Dominic Alves via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected | Earth Wise

September 30, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

It is widely believed that electrification is the future for vehicles. The only question is how long the transition will take. Predictions are all over the map, but the recent trend is to revise those predictions to say it will happen sooner than previously thought.

A recent report from the international accounting firm Ernst & Young predicts that EV sales in the US, China, and Europe will surpass those of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles five years sooner than previously expected. The report forecasts that fossil-fueled vehicles will represent less than 1% of global sales by 2045, taking their place among other historical but essentially abandoned technologies.

Europe is expected to be the leader in EV adoption. The forecast is that EVs will surpass legacy vehicles by 2028. China is expected to follow by 2033. The US is lagging behind, but even here, electrics are expected to achieve a majority of car sales by 2036.

Plug-in vehicle sales have surpassed a 10% market share in California and Tesla now has a 1.7% share of the total US car market. Norway is the global EV leader with 3 out of 4 car buyers choosing electrics. In that country, Tesla’s Model 3 is the top-selling vehicle of any kind. In Switzerland, 40% of car sales are EVs or hybrids.

There are many variables that will affect the timetable for the EV transition. Among them are the timetable for widespread use of autonomous vehicle technology, the effects of policy initiatives by governments around the world, the development of charging infrastructure, and the evolution of electricity generation and energy storage.

In any case, looking at the product roadmap for virtually every automobile manufacturer makes it clear that electric cars are the future.

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Ernst & Young: Electric Cars Are Coming Sooner Than Expected

Photo, posted April 25, 2021, courtesy of Rutger van der Maar via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coastlines and Climate Change | Earth Wise

August 16, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Climate change poses a fundamental threat to life on earth and has already left observable effects on the planet. For example, glaciers have shrunk, oceans have warmed, heatwaves have become more intense, and plant and animal ranges have shifted.

As a result of the changing climate, coastal communities around the world are confronting the increasing threats posed by a combination of extreme storms and the predicted acceleration of sea level rise.

Scientists from the University of Plymouth in England have developed a simple algorithm-based model to predict how coastlines could be affected by climate change. This model allows coastal communities to identify the actions they need to take in order to adapt to their changing environment.

The Forecasting Coastal Evolution (or ForCE) model has the potential to be a game-changer because it allows adaptations in the shoreline to be predicted over timescales of anything from days to decades. As a result, the model is capable of predicting both the short-term impact of extreme storms as well as predicting the longer-term impact of rising seas.

The ForCE model relies on past and present beach measurements and data showing the physical properties of the coast. It also considers other key factors like tidal, surge, and global sea-level rise data to assess how beaches might be impacted by climate change. Beach sediments form the frontline defense against coastal erosion and flooding, and are key in preventing damage to valuable coastal infrastructure.

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Coastal Evolution, the ForCE model predictions have shown to be more than 80% accurate in current tests in South West England.

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New model accurately predicts how coasts will be impacted by storms and sea-level rise

Photo, posted April 17, 2016, courtesy of Nicolas Henderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Surviving Climate Change | Earth Wise

June 30, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The sixth mass extinction of wildlife on Earth is happening now. According to an analysis published last year in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, more than 500 species of land animals are on the brink of extinction and are likely to be lost within the next 20 years. Without the impact of humans, this quantity of extinctions would have taken thousands of years.

Anthropogenic climate change continues to exacerbate problems that drive species to the brink. Which species will be able to adapt and survive?

Using genome sequencing, a research team from McGill University in Montreal has found that some fish, like the threespine stickleback, can adapt very rapidly to extreme seasonal changes. Known for their different shapes, sizes, and behaviors, stickleback fish can live in both saltwater and freshwater, and can tolerate a wide range of temperatures.

Stickleback fish, which can be found in different estuaries along coastal California, provided researchers with an opportunity to study natural selection in real-time. The researchers analyzed six populations of threespine stickleback fish before and after seasonal changes to their environment. The research team discovered evidence of genetic changes driven by the seasonal shifts in habitat that mirrored the differences found between long-established freshwater and saltwater populations. Since these genetic changes occurred in independent populations over a single season, the study highlights just how quickly the effects of natural selection can be detected.

These findings suggest that scientists may be able to use the genetic differences that evolved in the past as a way to predict how species may adapt to climate change in the future.

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Which animals will survive climate change?

Sixth Mass Extinction of Wildlife Accelerating- Study

Photo, posted August 3, 2015, courtesy of Jason Ching/University of Washington via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Insanely Cheap Energy | Earth Wise

June 11, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

The International Energy Agency, founded in 1974, keeps track of the world’s energy systems and anticipates how they are likely to change over time. Policymakers around the world look to the agency’s annual World Energy Outlook publication for guidance.

In 2000, the agency made the prediction that by the year 2020, there would be a total of 18 gigawatts of photovoltaic solar power installed. Within seven years, that number was already too small.

The IEA was not the only source to miss the mark on solar power. The head of solar analysis at BloombergNEF in 2005 expected solar to eventually supply 1% of the world’s electricity. It is already 3% and Bloomberg now predicts that it will be 23% by 2050 and expects that to be an underestimate.

What has happened is that the world has unexpectedly gotten to the point where solar is the cheapest source of energy in most places. Over the past decade, every time solar production capacity has doubled, its cost has dropped by 28%.

Historically, a combination of groundbreaking research in Australia and intense Chinese industrial development led to the creation of a massive new industry. When Germany passed laws encouraging the use of solar power, suddenly there was massive global demand and a struggle to keep up with supply.

The industry had its fits and starts, and many players fell by the wayside. But at this point, solar technology continues to get better and cheaper. Market forces are pretty hard to beat and when solar technology can supply insanely cheap energy, it is going to be used in more and more places.

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‘Insanely cheap energy’: how solar power continues to shock the world

Photo, posted January 10, 2020, courtesy of Tony Webster via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

March 11, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow. The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production. The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems. In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 . The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year. The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record. The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm. With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

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