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Clouds And Global Warming | Earth Wise

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Recent climate models from multiple organizations project that the amount of warming that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause would be much more than previously estimated.  And one of the significant changes to the models relates to the role of clouds.

Clouds have long been a major uncertainty in climate calculations.  Clouds can shade the earth and thereby provide cooling.  But clouds can also trap heat.  Which effect dominates depends on how reflective the clouds are, how high up they are, and whether it is day or night.  The dynamics of clouds are complicated.

If you fly across the ocean, you will see blankets of low clouds extending for hundreds of miles.  These marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds predominantly cool the Earth.  In fact, they shade roughly a fifth of the oceans and reflect 30-60% of the solar radiation that hits them back into space.

Recent studies indicate that as global temperatures rise, these clouds are likely to become thinner or burn off entirely, leaving more clear skies through which the sun may add another degree Celsius or more to global warming.

The concerns about clouds are part of the larger issue about feedbacks in warming the world.  It has long been clear that the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 levels in the atmosphere would raise global temperature.  But there are amplifying feedback effects.  Melting large areas of snow and ice reduces reflectivity and allows the land and oceans to absorb more heat.  More water vapor entering the atmosphere traps more heat.  And now clouds are another concern.

Overall, these effects are leading to climate models predicting much larger global temperature increases, which is a scary prospect for the world.

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Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

Photo, posted September 10, 2006, courtesy of Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cooling The Earth With A Warmer Arctic | Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Researchers are considering a wide range of approaches to mitigate the effects of global climate change.  Among these are various strategies of geoengineering, which must be viewed with enormous caution, given the high likelihood of unintended consequences from almost anything we might do.

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis have investigated potential strategies for cooling the planet in the absence of Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic region is heating up faster than any other place on earth and its sea ice is rapidly disappearing.  Estimates are that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will be largely gone within a generation.  Arctic ice and snow reflect the sun’s energy into space, which helps to keep the planet cool.  What happens if that ice is gone?

The researchers explored the fact that the Arctic Ocean ice actually insulates the Arctic atmosphere from the warmer water under the ice.  Without the ice layer, the surface water would actually increase air temperatures by 20 degrees C during the winter.  That in turn would increase the heat irradiated into space and thereby cool down the planet.

The Arctic sea ice is in part maintained because the upper regions of the Arctic Ocean have lower salinity than the Atlantic Ocean.  This stops Atlantic water from flowing above the cold Arctic waters.  So, if we were to somehow deliberately increase the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface water, warmer, less salty Atlantic Ocean water would flow in, increase the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere, and release heat trapped in the ocean into space.

It all sounds pretty crazy, but the researchers say that given the seriousness of climate change, all options should be considered when dealing with it.

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Could we cool the Earth with an ice-free Arctic?

Photo, posted August 19, 2016, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Geoengineering And Volcanoes

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Solar geoengineering is a theoretical strategy for curbing the effects of climate change by introducing aerosol particles in the upper atmosphere to reflect some of the Sun’s radiation back into space and thereby cool the planet.  It would basically be intentionally tinkering with the climate system on a global scale.

The concept is fraught with the danger of unintended consequences and most experts consider the idea almost unthinkable.  But there are those who see it as a last resort if all our other efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change are unsuccessful.

Proponents of the idea like to describe the technique as being like a human-made volcano.  Major volcanic eruptions spew ash particles into the atmosphere which can linger for as long as a few years.  The result is cooler temperatures, sometimes across much of the globe.  The Krakatoa eruption of 1883 lowered average Northern Hemisphere temperatures by more than 2 degrees and created chaotic weather patterns until about 1888.

Researchers at the Carnegie Institution and two Chinese research institutions used sophisticated modeling techniques to compare the effects on the climate of a volcanic eruption with long-term geoengineering deployment.

They found that the volcanic eruption created a greater temperature difference between the land and sea than the geoengineering and resulted in very different precipitation scenarios.  In both cases, there would be less available water for people on land.

Overall, the study demonstrated that volcanic eruptions are imperfect analogs for geoengineering and that scientists should be very cautious about extrapolating too much from them.  It is important to evaluate geoengineering from an informed position, but the truth is that it represents a great and perilous unknown.

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Geoengineering Versus A Volcano

Photo, posted November 1, 2002, courtesy of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Pulling Water From The Air

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A couple of years ago, we reported on the early development of a device that harvests water from the air that even works in the low humidity environment of a desert.  Since then, the researchers from UC Berkeley have continued to improve the device and it is now 10 times better than it was two years ago.

The harvester is based on a porous water-absorbing material called a metal-organic framework, or MOF.  The latest version can pull more than five cups of water from low-humidity air per day for every kilogram of the improved MOF material and that is more than enough water to sustain a person.  The harvester cycles around the clock and is powered by solar panels and a battery.

Previous techniques for condensing water from air at low humidity required cooling down the air to temperatures below freezing, which is not economically practical.  The MOF-based device does not require any cooling.

The Berkeley researchers have formed a startup company – Water Harvester, Inc. – which is now testing and will soon market a device the size of a microwave oven that can supply 7 to 10 liters of water per day, which is enough drinking and cooking water for two or three adults.

An even larger version of the harvester, which would be the size of a small refrigerator, would provide 200 to 250 liters of water per day, enough for a household to drink, cook, and shower.  The new company envisions a village-scale harvester that would produce 20,000 liters per day, still running off of solar panels and a battery.

Water Harvester believes the water needs for many people can come out of the thin air.

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Water harvester makes it easy to quench your thirst in the desert

Photo courtesy of Grant Glover (University of South Alabama) via UC Berkeley.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Energy Demand

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Human beings are utterly dependent upon energy both for our well-being and for societal development.  Our energy use is highly dependent upon climate since so much energy is expended either keeping us warm in winter or cool in summer.  As the climate changes, it is important to understand how energy demand is likely to be affected.

A new study published in Nature Communications by researchers in Austria, Italy and the United States explored this topic.  The study is a global analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.  The purpose was to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios by the year 2050.

The findings indicate that, compared to scenarios in which energy demand is driven only by population and income growth, climate change will increase the global demand for energy by 11-27% by the year 2050 under a modest warming scenario.  With vigorous climate warming, energy demand would increase by 25-58%.  (Large areas of the tropics, as well as southern Europe, China, and the US are likely to experience the highest increases).

These findings are important because if energy use rises and leads to additional emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, it will be increasingly difficult to mitigate future climate warming.  Quantifying this risk provides even more incentive for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before these effects upon demand are realized and it becomes even more difficult to prevent further impacts.

Policymakers need to be aware that even moderate levels of climate change will lead to increases in energy demand that will make it increasingly difficult to minimize the harmful effects on their societies.

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More energy needed to cope with climate change

Photo, posted December 15, 2008, courtesy of Matt Hintsa via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Bottom Line

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Large companies around the world are facing up to the fact that climate change could substantially affect their bottom lines within the next five years.  Shareholders and regulators have been applying pressure to companies to disclose the specific financial impacts they could face as the planet warms and companies are increasingly making those disclosures.

A non-profit charity called CDP (formerly known as the Carbon Disclosure Project) runs the global disclosure system for investors, companies, cities, states, and regions to manage their environmental impacts.  In 2018, more than 7,000 companies submitted reports to CDP and, for the first time, CDP explicitly asked firms to try to calculate how a warming planet might affect them financially.

Analysis of the reports from 215 of the world’s 500 largest corporations revealed that these companies alone potentially faced roughly $1 trillion in costs related to climate change in the decades ahead unless they took proactive steps to prepare. 

Climate-related risks range from extreme weather that could disrupt supply chains to stricter climate regulations that could hurt the value of coal, oil, and gas investments.  Technology companies like Google’s parent company, Alphabet, Inc., face increased costs to cool energy-hungry data centers as temperatures rise.

In all, the world’s largest companies estimated that at least $250 billion of assets may need to be written off or retired early as the planet heats up.  Previous studies, based on computer climate modeling, have estimated that the risks of global warming, if left unmanaged, could cost the world’s financial sector between $1.7 trillion to $24.2 trillion in net present value terms.

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Companies See Climate Change Hitting Their Bottom Lines in the Next 5 Years

Photo, posted February 29, 2016, courtesy of Ben Nuttall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Making Cities Cooler

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Cities are particularly miserable during heatwaves.   With lots of concrete and asphalt surfaces, they soak up lots of heat and re-radiate it.  Lots of tall buildings block cooling breezes.  Factor in car exhaust and heat from air conditioners and it all adds up to the urban heat island effect.  Cities can be several degrees warmer during the day and as much as 20 degrees warmer at night.  All of this extra heat is not just a comfort issue, it is a serious health problem.

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Strategies For Limiting Global Warming

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A new study published in Nature Energy shows that the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius could be achieved by a combination of dramatic improvements in the energy efficiency of everyday activities.

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Cooling Cities With White Roofs

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The phenomenon of urban heat islands has been well known since the 19th century.  The materials from which city buildings and roads are made reflect much less solar radiation and absorb more of it than the vegetation they have replaced.  The absorbed energy is then radiated in the form of heat into the surrounding air making cities warmer.

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Air Pollution Reducing Global Warming

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Pollution particles emitted by diesel cars and trucks, coal-fired power plants, factories, primitive cook stoves, and the burning of forests are major contributors to the pervasive air pollution that plagues many cities and regions of the world.  In India and China, such pollution leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths each year.   And countries around the world are working hard to reduce pollution.

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A Microgrid in New York’s Capital

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New York State has been encouraging its communities to install microgrids for quite a while.  Now the state has committed to build a 16-megawatt microgrid to power the Empire State Plaza in downtown Albany.  The microgrid will use combined heat and power to supply 90% of the electricity as well as heating and cooling for the 10 buildings where 11,000 state employees work.

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Clean Energy In Massachusetts

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Despite efforts by the new administration to increase support for fossil fuels, there is increasing momentum towards a clean-energy future.  State and local efforts are driving the country to a 21st-century energy infrastructure, with or without the federal government.

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Geothermal Heating

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Geothermal heat pumps use the heat stored in the earth’s surface to heat homes and buildings.  Even in the dead of winter, the temperature not very far below ground remains at a temperature typically in the 50s.  Geothermal systems tap into this immense thermal resource.  Conversely, this same temperature sink can be used to provide cooling during the summer.  It takes electricity to run the heat pumps, but is vastly more efficient than using electricity directly to produce heat or to cool air.

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