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Airplanes and climate change

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The aviation industry is a powerful force in the global economy.  In fact, according to some estimates, the industry transports the equivalent of nearly half the world’s population every year.  But the world’s airports were largely designed for an older era – a cooler one.

As air warms, it becomes less dense, which makes it harder for airplanes to generate lift, which is the force that enables them to fly.

According to a new study by scientists from the University of Reading in the U.K., rising temperatures due to climate change may force aircraft at some airports to reduce passenger numbers in the coming decades.

The research team examined how warmer air affects aircraft performance during takeoff at 30 sites across Europe.  The study, which was recently published in the journal Aerospace, focused on the Airbus A320, which is a common aircraft used for short and medium-distance flights across Europe.

By the 2060s, the research team found that some airports with shorter runways may need to reduce their maximum take-off weight by the equivalent of approximately 10 passengers per flight during summer months.

Of the sites included in the study, Chios in Greece, Pantelleria and Rome Ciampino in Italy, and San Sebastian in Spain will be the four most affected popular tourist destinations.

Climate change is also making air travel increasingly turbulent, and the aviation industry itself remains a growing contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. 

Taking meaningful action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, including those from the aviation industry, is one of the most crucial ways to mitigate global climate change.

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Holiday flights could carry fewer passengers as world warms

Photo, posted September 29, 2017, courtesy of Hugh Llewelyn via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

October was another hot month

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In a year filled with unusually warm months, October 2024 ranked as the second-warmest October in the 175 years of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s records.  It was just 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the previous global record set just last year.

In our part of the world, North America had its warmest October on record.

Year-to-date, the global surface temperature has been 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, which is the warmest such period on record.  This record warmth was observed in Africa, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America.  With only a little of the year to go, predictions are that there is a greater than 99% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

Other aspects of the warming climate were also in full evidence in October.  Global sea ice coverage was the smallest in the 46 years that it has been tracked, about 1.25 million square miles below the 1991-2020 average.  Ice extent in the Arctic was the fourth lowest on record and ice extent in the Antarctic was the second lowest on record.

Global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest for October and is the warmest ever for the period January to October.

The Atlantic basin saw five tropical cyclones during October, including the deadly and destructive Hurricane Milton that made landfall just south of Tampa Bay. 

The monthly climate postings by NOAA continue to report record-breaking temperatures and significant climate anomalies and events.  This pattern is not likely to do anything but continue in the future.

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Planet saw its 2nd-warmest October in 175-year record

Photo, posted August 21, 2018, courtesy of Fabio Achilli via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How warm is It?

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As of June, the world had seen 13 consecutive months of record-breaking heat.  The average global temperature over the last 12 of those months measured 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the preindustrial era. This means that the world has at least temporarily exceeded the temperature target set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Does this mean that climate change has gotten to the point where keeping temperatures below that goal is no longer possible? Not necessarily. Temperatures could drop below the 1.5-degree level in the near future.

The world has certainly been warming as a result of climate change, but the spike in temperature for the past year has also been driven by an El Niño condition in the Pacific, which leads to warmer temperatures.  How much of the warming is a result of each factor is not known.

But scientists say that El Niño has ended in June and a La Niña condition is likely to take shape between August and October. This would lead to cooler temperatures in many places.

Despite the extensive and lingering heatwaves in the US in July, on a global scale, temperatures have actually started falling in July.  July may end up being the first month since June 2023 to not set a new monthly global temperature record.  Nevertheless, the long streak of record-high temperatures is no statistical anomaly.  It is indicative of a large and continuing shift in the climate.   Whether conditions in the Pacific produce an El Niño or a La Niña, the steady long-term warming will continue as long as human-generated carbon emissions continue.

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How Bad Is Warming? La Niña May Reveal

Photo, posted September 19, 2022, courtesy of Paul Sableman via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Greenhouses and the environment

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The use of greenhouses around the world has been growing dramatically.  A new satellite mapping exercise estimated the total land area covered with permanent greenhouses at 3.2 million acres, which is an area the size of Connecticut.  More than half of this is in China, where the growth of greenhouses has been driven by the rapid urbanization of the country and by a more prosperous population increasingly consuming produce like tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and eggplants.

The intensive agricultural methods employed within greenhouses can be harmful to local environments because of overtaxing water supplies and by polluting rivers and soils with nutrients, pesticides, and plastic waste.  But the effects of vast areas of plastic coverings on local temperatures can be even more dramatic, and often beneficial.

There are so many plastic and glass roofs in many areas that they are reflecting sufficient amounts of solar radiation to cool local temperatures.  Greenhouse roofs increase the albedo – the reflectivity – of the land surface typically by a tenth.

All these greenhouses are just the tip of the albedo iceberg.  Many farms now temporarily cover crops with reflective plastic sheets.  If these coverings are included in the satellite survey, the total reflective area would be about ten times greater – roughly the size of New York State.

A study in Almeria, on the Mediterranean coast of Spain, which grows about 3 million tons of fruit and vegetables annually, determined the cooling effects of greenhouses.  Weather stations amid the greenhouses showed an average cooling of 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit compared with the surrounding area.

Greenhouses are an accidental and benign form of climate engineering. The cooling provided by greenhouses is similar to the effect of white roofs in urban areas. 

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Could the Global Boom in Greenhouses Help Cool the Planet?

Photo, posted September 6, 2017, courtesy of Lance Cheung / USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Species range and climate change

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The geographic range of a particular plant or animal species is the area in which it can be found during its lifetime.  The range of most species is limited by climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, humidity, and wind.  Any changes in the magnitude or variability of these factors will impact the species living there. 

For example, a species sensitive to temperature may respond to a warmer climate by moving to cooler locations at higher latitudes or elevations. 

But not all species are able to move at the same speed.  According to an international research team led by scientists from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, non-native species are expanding their ranges many times faster than native species.

The researchers found that land-based plant and animal species need to be shifting their ranges by about two miles per year just to keep up with the rapid pace of the changing climate.  Marine species need to be moving about 1.7 miles per year.  However, native species are only managing to move about one mile per year on average.  

Non-native species, on the other hand, are spreading nearly 22 miles each year on their own.  Additionally, when the role humans play in assisting the spread of non-native species is factored in, the rate jumps to a whopping 1,170 miles per year.  This is more than 1,000 times faster than the rate at which native species are spreading.   

The researchers conclude that there is no chance for native species to keep up with climate change without human help.  Assisted migration needs to be on the table if native plants and animals are to survive.   

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Non-Native Plants and Animals Expanding Ranges 100 Times Faster than Native Species

Photo, posted April 10, 2011, courtesy of Bri Weldon via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate change and fish migration

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The warming climate is changing the distribution of fish species.  Researchers at the University of Adelaide in Australia have observed that tropical fish species are moving into temperate Australian waters.

The Eastern Australian Current is strengthening as the climate warms and larvae of tropical fish are getting caught in the current and moving into more temperate regions.  These larvae would not normally survive in the cooler Australian ocean water, but the warming current keeps the baby fish warm and increases their chances for survival.  The fish migration observed in the study is an ongoing process that has strengthened in the last few decades due to ocean warming.

The novel populations of tropical fish in these temperate ecosystems are not having much impact at the present time, but they may do so in the future.  The water is still cooler than the fishes’ natural environment and therefore they do not grow to their maximum size.  As a result, they don’t represent stiff competition for the native species – at least not yet.

As the ocean temperatures continue to rise, these tropical species will eventually grow to their full size and their diets will overlap more and more with those of temperate fish species.  Tropical herbivores tend to overgraze temperate kelp while the impact of tropical fish that eat invertebrates is less well understood.  Tropical fish with varied diets are the most successful invaders.  The ultimate effects on temperate ecosystems remain to be seen but survival may become difficult for the native fish in rapidly warming temperate ocean environments.

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Tropical fish are invading Australian ocean water

Photo, posted March 28, 2017, courtesy of Ryan McMinds via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Major species turnover forecasted for North American cities

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Climate change affects animal species in many ways.  It induces habitat loss, disrupts migration and breeding patterns, threatens marine life, and facilitates an increased spread of disease.  It may also affect where animals can be found in the future. 

According to a new study led by researchers from the University of Toronto Mississauga and Apex Resource Management Solutions in Canada, climate change may dramatically affect the animal species observed in North American cities by the end of the century.

The researchers used species distribution data combined with machine learning to study the impact of human-caused climate change on more than 2,000 animal species historically found in the 60 most populous North American cities. 

According to the research team, changes in biodiversity are brewing for almost every city it studied by the year 2100.  In fact, cities with a rich history of biodiversity are predicted to have the largest declines and fewest gains in species. Cooler and wetter cities like Quebec, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Kansas City, and Omaha are expected to welcome the most new species.  Warmer cities with higher precipitation – like cities in coastal California – are projected to lose the most species. 

More than 95% of bird and insect species are predicted to experience a change in the number of cities they call home.  Canines, most amphibians, and aquatic birds are expected to experience the greatest losses.  Toads, turtles, mice and pelicans are projected to become more common overall. 

The researchers hope their findings will encourage more efforts to protect biodiversity.

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North American cities may see a major species turnover by the end of the century

Photo, posted September 29, 2013, courtesy of Jonathan Kriz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

How to make cities cooler

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In cities, the air, surface, and soil temperatures are almost always warmer than in rural areas. This is known as the urban heat island effect.  Urban heat islands occur when cities replace natural land cover with dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat.

Urban planners around the world have been researching ways to reduce the effects of heat in cities.  For example, trees, green roofs, and vegetation can help reduce urban heat island effects by shading building surfaces, deflecting radiation from the sun, and releasing moisture into the atmosphere.

A new study led by researchers from the University of Surrey in the U.K. has analyzed how well various green spaces and waterways are able to cool down cities.  The study, which was recently published in the journal The Innovation, found that wetlands, parks, and even botanical gardens are among the best ways to keep cities cool.   

In fact, the researchers found that botanical gardens can cool city air by a whopping 9°F during heatwaves on average.  Wetlands can cool city air by 8.5°F on average, followed by rain gardens at 8.1°F, green walls at 7.4°F, street trees at 6.8°F, city farms at 6.3°F, city parks at 5.8°F, and reservoirs and playgrounds at 5.2°F. 

The researchers also found that cities can unlock even greater benefits by connecting green spaces into green corridors.  Greening projects can also help remove carbon emissions and prevent flooding.

The research team hopes its findings will help urban planners design more resilient cities. 

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Wetlands, parks and even botanical gardens among the best ways to cool cities during heatwaves

Photo, posted April 25, 2022, courtesy of Catherine Poh Huay Tan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Deeper corals bleaching

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When ocean waters get too warm, corals – which are actually tiny animals – eject the colorful algae that inhabit their tissues.  The symbiotic relationship between coral polyps and algae is essential to coral survival   When the algae is ejected, previously colorful coral turns white, and the coral can ultimately die.  If waters cool off, the algae can reestablish themselves and the coral can regain its color and health.

The world’s oceans have been warming at an unprecedented rate, making coral bleaching and die-off a global phenomenon.  It is estimated that half of the planet’s reefs have already disappeared.  Some places are worse off than others.  For example, almost 95% of coral reefs in Southeast Asia are threatened.  Florida’s reefs are especially threatened, particularly since there have been unprecedented marine heatwaves off its coast.

It has long been assumed that deeper reefs, where water is cooler, would remain safe from the effects of warming, but a few years ago researchers recorded coral bleaching some 300 feet underwater along the Egmont Atoll in the western Indian Ocean.  At one point, bleaching affected 80% of corals in some areas.  This discovery came as a huge surprise to oceanographers.  It was probably associated with an El Niño-like phenomenon in the waters and those reefs have mostly recovered in the intervening years.

Fairly recently, researchers have found pristine coral reefs deep down in the waters off the Galapagos Islands, where shallow reefs have largely disappeared.  There are likely to be similar reefs in the ocean depths around the world, but scientists are expressing concern that even coral reefs lying deep beneath the ocean surface may not ultimately be protected from the warming seas.

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As Oceans Warm, Coral Bleaching Seen at Greater Depths

Photo, posted June 5, 2023, courtesy of Ryan Hagerty / USFWS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Climate Change And The Color Of Lakes | Earth Wise

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According to a new study recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, blue lakes around the world are at risk of turning green-brown if climate change continues unabated. 

For the study, the research team used over five million satellite images of more than 85,000 lakes and reservoirs around the globe between 2013 and 2020 in order to determine each lake’s most common water color.  Since lake color can change seasonally, the researchers assessed the most frequent lake color during those seven years. 

Algae and sediments affect the color of lakes.  But the study found that precipitation, air temperature, lake depth, and elevation also play major roles in determining a lake’s most common water color. 

The research team found that blue lakes account for less than one-third of lakes worldwide.  Blue lakes tend to be deeper and are often found in cool, high latitude regions with high precipitation and winter ice cover.  Meanwhile, green-brown lakes, which account for 69% of all lakes, are found in drier regions, continental interiors, and along coastlines. 

As global temperatures rise, lakes will warm, and warmer water produces more algal blooms.  As a result, the researchers expect the changing climate to decrease the percentage of blue lakes, many of which are found in the Rocky Mountains, northeastern Canada, northern Europe and New Zealand. 

Water color is a simple but viable way to measure water quality that can be done on a global scale using satellites.  This approach provides researchers with a way to study how lakes – even the remote ones – are changing.  

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Climate change is making lakes turn green-brown

Photo, posted August 27, 2011, courtesy of Paul Schultz via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Prospects For Floating Solar | Earth Wise

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Countries are trying to figure out how to get enough energy from solar and wind generation to completely decarbonize their economies.  According to some estimates, nations might have to devote between half a percent and five percent of their land area to solar panels to get the job done.  Half a percent is about the amount of the U.S. that is covered by paved roads.  While there is lots of open land in many parts of the country, covering it with solar panels might not be acceptable to farmers, conservationists, or other interested parties.

One way to deploy more solar panels without using up land is the use of floating solar panels.  Floating photovoltaic systems – also known as floatovoltaics – are becoming increasingly common, especially in Asia.  This year, China installed one of the largest floatovoltaic systems in the world on a reservoir near the city of Dezhou.

Floating solar panels stay cooler and run more efficiently than those on land.  The panels also help prevent evaporation from their watery homes and the shading they provide also help to minimize algal blooms.  Solar installations on reservoirs generally puts them near cities, making it easier to feed power into urban grids.

On the other hand, floating solar systems need to be able to withstand water and waves and are generally more expensive to build than land-based systems.

At present, the installed global capacity of floating solar is only about 3 gigawatts, compared with more than 700 gigawatts of land-based systems. However, reservoirs around the world collectively cover an area about the size of France.  Covering just 10 percent of them with floating solar could produce as much power as all the fossil-fuel plants in operation worldwide.

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Solar Takes a Swim

Photo, posted March 7, 2019, courtesy of Hedgerow INC via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Coral Reef Status Report | Earth Wise

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In October, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network released the first-ever report collecting global statistics on the world’s corals.  It documents the status of reefs across 12,000 sites in 73 countries over 40 years.  Overall, the news is not good, but there were some bright spots.

From 2009 to 2018, the world has lost 14% of its corals, corresponding to about 4,500 square miles of coral.  Global warming has led to prolonged marine heatwaves that trigger coral bleaching.  Local pollution has also damaged reefs.   The International Panel on Climate Change has reported that 2 degrees Celsius of global warming would wipe out 99% of the world’s corals.

The report does show that corals can recover globally if given a decade of cooler waters.  Some places in the world – particularly the Coral Triangle in Asia, which contains nearly a third of the world’s coral – have actually seen coral growth over the past decade. 

The Global Coral Reef Monitoring network started collecting data in 1978.  Coral health was fairly steady until 1998 when the first mass bleaching event occurred, triggered by a powerful El Niño event.  For the next 12 years, corals recovered nicely, but then bleaching events in 2010 and 2015-17 took their toll.

The Pacific, Australia, and the Caribbean have all seen major decreases in coral.  The Coral Triangle is a major exception which is thought to be a result of genetic diversity among the region’s corals.

Coral conservationists globally are working to protect corals and to actively restore them.  The situation is fairly dire, but there continue to be reasons for hope.

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Finding Bright Spots in the Global Coral Reef Catastrophe

Photo, posted October 13, 2015, courtesy of Albert Straub via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Potential For Solar Canals In California | Earth Wise

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California’s network of almost 4,000 miles of aqueducts is the world’s largest water conveyance system.  It serves the state’s Central Valley which produces a quarter of America’s food.  About 20% of the nation’s groundwater demand is pumped from Central Valley aquifers.

A recent study by the University of California Santa Cruz and UC Merced has determined that covering these aqueducts with solar panels could be an economically feasible way to advance both renewable energy and water conservation.  California’s aqueducts might more properly be called canals because they are located at ground level.  

The concept of solar canals has been gaining increasing interest around the world as the changing climate leads to more droughts in many regions.  Placing solar panels above the canals can shade them to help prevent water loss through evaporation.  In addition, some types of solar panels can work better situated over canals because the cooler environment improves their operation.  In addition to the increased solar panel output and the water evaporation savings, shade from solar panels could help control the growth of aquatic weeds, which are a costly canal maintenance issue.

Spanning canals with solar panels can be accomplished either by using steel trusses or suspension cables, either of which is more expensive to build than ordinary ground-mounted solar panel supports.  But the research study showed how the benefits of solar canals combine to outweigh the added costs for cable-supported installations.

Apart from the economic benefits of a solar canal system, producing solar energy in the canal system could eliminate the use of 15-20 diesel-powered irrigation pumps, helping to reduce air pollution in a region with some of the nation’s worst air quality.

Solar canals could be a real winner.

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New analysis shows potential for ‘solar canals’ in California

Photo, posted July 23, 2015, courtesy of Lance Cheung / USDA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Cockroaches Of The Ocean

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The coast of Northern California is home to underwater forests – huge, sprawling tangles of brown seaweed.  Kelp forests play a similar role in the oceans as the one that ordinary tree forests play on land.  Like trees, kelp absorbs carbon emissions and provides critical habitat and food for a wide range of species.

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Measuring Earth’s Outgoing Energy

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The earth’s energy imbalance is the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by the earth and the amount of energy the planet radiates back into space as heat.  If the imbalance is positive, that is, if more energy is coming in than going out, then the earth will get warmer over time.  If the imbalance is negative, then the planet will get cooler. 

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