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2023: A year of extreme climate

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There have already been all sorts of extreme weather this year in many parts of the world and undoubtedly there will be more to talk about in the coming months.  But the American Meteorological Society has recently published its State of the Climate report for 2023 and it was a year for the record books.

In 2023, the Earth’s layers of heat-reflecting clouds had the lowest extent ever measured.  That means that skies were clearer around the world than on average, a situation that amplifies the warming of the planet.  Since 1980, clouds have decreased by more than half a percent per decade. 

The most dramatic climate effect last year occurred in the world’s oceans.  About 94% of all ocean surfaces experienced a marine heatwave during the year.  The global average annual sea surface temperature anomaly was 0.13 degrees Celsius above the previous record set in 2016.  This is a huge variation for the ocean.  Ocean heatwave conditions stayed in place for at least 10 months in 2023 in vast reaches of the world’s oceans.  Ocean heat was so remarkable that climate scientists are now using the term “super-marine heatwaves” to describe what is going on. 

There were many other ways in which 2023 experienced weather extremes.  July experienced a record-high 7.9% of the world’s land areas in severe drought conditions.  During the year, most of the world experienced much warmer-than-average conditions, especially in the higher northern latitudes.  These unprecedented changes to the climate are unlikely to be one-time occurrences; 2024 is likely to be another one for the record books.  

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New Federal Report Details More of 2023’s Extreme Climate Conditions

Photo, posted May 27, 2021, courtesy of Wendy Cover/NOAA via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Global coral bleaching

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The world’s coral reefs are in the midst of a global bleaching event being driven by extraordinarily high ocean temperatures.  This is the fourth such global event on record and is predicted to be the largest one ever.  Coral bleaching occurs when corals are stressed by heat and eject the symbiotic algae within them that they need to survive.  Bleached corals can recover if water temperatures cool soon enough.  Otherwise, they die.

Each of the three previous coral bleaching events has been worse than the last.  The first, in 1998, affected 20% of the world’s reefs.  The second, in 2010, affected 35%.  The third, from 2014 to 2017, affected 56% of reefs.

The current bleaching event was confirmed by satellite observations early in April and was already seen to be affecting more than half of the world’s coral areas across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.  The ongoing event is expected to be the worst bleaching ever experienced by Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.  A small saving grace is that the current bleaching event is not expected to be of extremely long duration because the El Niño in the Pacific has abated.

Coral bleaching events are becoming more severe and frequent due to increased marine heat waves driven by climate change.  Last year was particularly difficult for corals as global sea temperatures reached record high levels for several months.

Widespread coral bleaching impacts economies, livelihoods, food security, and more.  Coral reefs provide ecosystem services essential to marine life and human populations as well.  Global action will be needed for coral interventions and restorations.

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Satellites watch as 4th global coral bleaching event unfolds

Photo, posted March 23, 2012, courtesy of Oregon State University via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Airplane Turbulence And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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If you’ve ever been on an airplane, chances are pretty good that you’ve experienced turbulence.  As the busy summer travel season kicks off, travelers are being encouraged to brace themselves for a bumpier-than-usual ride. 

There has been a major increase in the number of severe turbulence cases on both domestic and international flights.  According to a new study by researchers from the University of Reading in the U.K., climate change is leading to this increase in turbulence, driving up costs (via wear and tear on aircrafts), and increasing the risks for passengers and flight attendants.  In the United States alone, turbulence costs the airline industry $150-$500 million annually. 

The study, which was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that warmer air, caused by carbon emissions, is creating bumpier flights around the world.  In fact, the study found that severe turbulence in the North Atlantic is up by 55% since 1979. 

The changing climate is affecting air travel in other ways as well.  A faster jet stream across the Atlantic is altering travel times.  Rising temperatures are reducing the weight that aircraft can carry.  Rising seas are threatening low-lying coastal airports around the world. 

But carbon emissions from aviation are also a significant driver of the climate crisis.  Air travel accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and is one of the fastest growing sources of emissions. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization, emissions from international air travel are expected to triple by 2050.

The future is shaping up to be a bumpy ride.

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Climate crisis leading to more turbulence during flights, says study

Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades

Climate Scientist Explains Increase In Airplane Turbulence

Airports and Rising Seas

Photo, posted May 9, 2018, courtesy of Steve Lynes via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

The Cost Of Heat Waves | Earth Wise

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Heat waves are defined as periods of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. To be considered a heat wave, the recorded temperatures must be substantially above the historical averages for a given area. According to climate scientists, anthropogenic climate change is likely causing heat waves to increase in both frequency and intensity.  

According to a new study by researchers from Dartmouth University, climate change-driven severe heat waves have cost the world economy trillions of dollars since the early 1990s. 

In the study, which was recently published in the journal Science Advances, researchers combined in-depth economic data for regions worldwide with the average temperature for the hottest five-day period —a commonly used measurement of heat intensity—for each region in each year.  The research team found that between 1992 and 2013, heat waves statistically coincided with variations in economic growth and that an estimated $16 trillion was lost to the effects of high temperatures on human health, productivity and agricultural output.

The results of the study underscore issues of climate justice and inequality.  According to researchers, the economic costs of extreme heat have been and will be disproportionately borne by the world’s poorest nations.  While economic losses due to extreme heat events averaged 1.5% of GDP per capita for the world’s wealthiest regions, the researchers found that low-income regions suffered a loss of 6.7% of GDP per capita.  Most of these low-income nations have contributed the least to climate change. 

According to the research team, immediate action is needed now to protect vulnerable people during the hottest days of the year.

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Heat Waves Have Cost World Economy Trillions of Dollars

Photo, posted July 23, 2021, courtesy of Martin Fisch (marfis75) via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Coping With Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Extreme weather events including prolonged drought and heavy rainfall are becoming more common and more severe as global temperatures rise.  As the climate continues to change in the coming decades, how will animals respond? 

Researchers from the University of Southern Denmark have examined how different mammals react to climate change. They analyzed data on population fluctuations from 157 mammal species around the world.  They compared these fluctuations with weather and climate data from the same time period.  The research team had 10 or more years of data for each species studied. 

The researchers found that mammals that live for a long time and/or produce less offspring –  like llamas, elephants, bears, and bison – are more climate resilient than small mammals with short lives — like mice, possums, lemmings, and rare marsupials. 

For example, large, long-lived mammals can invest their energy into one offspring, or simply wait for better times if conditions become challenging.  On the other hand, small, short-lived mammals like rodents have more extreme population changes in the short term. In the event of a prolonged drought, large portions of their food base may rapidly disappear, and they are left to starve because they have limited fat reserves.

However, the research team notes that the ability of a species to withstand climate change must not be the only factor when assessing a species’ vulnerability.  In fact, in many cases, habitat destruction, poaching, pollution, and invasive species pose a larger threat to animal species than climate change. 

While the study only examined 157 species, the findings enable researchers to also predict how animals they know less about will react to climate change.

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Which animals can best withstand climate change?

Photo, posted July 8, 2018, courtesy of Ray via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Some Good News For The Great Barrier Reef | Earth Wise

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It seems like there has been nothing but dire news from Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.  Earlier this year, there was yet another mass bleaching event – the fourth in seven years and the first ever to strike during a cooler La Niña phase in the Pacific.  But this bleaching event was less severe than other recent ones, which makes it possible for parts of the reef to bounce back.

In particular, in the northern and central stretches of the reef, scientists have recorded the most extensive coral cover seen in 36 years of study.  In areas where coral cover has expanded, it is mostly fast-growing Acropora corals driving the growth.  That isn’t the best outcome, given that Acropora are particularly vulnerable to strong waves, highly susceptible to bleaching, and are the preferred target of crown-of-thorns starfish.

Those creatures are a major problem for the Great Barrier Reef.  In contrast to the upper stretches of the reef, the southern third actually saw coral cover drop from 38 to 34 percent over the course of the past year.  Scientists blame the decline on an outbreak of crown-of-thorns starfish, which prey on corals.  The starfish grow faster and eat more in warmer, more acidic waters.   Carbon emissions are both raising ocean temperatures and turning waters more acidic.

The large increases in hard coral cover in the reef are certainly good news, but it is important to understand that they can be quickly negated by disturbance on reefs where Acropora corals predominate.  Warming temperatures and mass bleaching events continue to pose a critical threat to all reefs, especially when there are crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks and increasing frequency of tropical cyclones.

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Parts of Great Barrier Reef See Most Extensive Coral Cover In 36 Years

Photo, posted July 15, 2019, courtesy of Kenneth Lu via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Wildfires And Cancer Risk | Earth Wise

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Hotter and drier conditions are leading to an increasing number of wildfires in North America and elsewhere around the globe.  Scientists have linked the severe heat and drought that fuel these wildfires to climate change. As the climate continues to change, wildfires are projected to become more prevalent, more severe, and longer in duration. 

According to a United Nations report released earlier this year, the Western U.S., northern Siberia, central India, and eastern Australia have already seen an uptick in wildfires.  The likelihood of catastrophic wildfires globally could increase by a third by 2050 and more than 50% by the turn of the century. 

According to a new study by researchers from McGill University, living near regions prone to wildfires may boost the risk of developing serious health issues.  The study, which tracked more than two million Canadians over a period of 20 years, found a higher incidence of lung cancer and brain tumors in people exposed to wildfires.  People living within 50 kilometers of wildfires during the past 10 years had a 10% higher incidence of brain tumors and a 4.9% higher incidence of lung cancer when compared to people living further away. 

This study, which was recently published in The Lancet Planetary Health, is the first to examine how proximity to forest fires may influence cancer risk.

In addition to the impacts on air quality, wildfires also pollute aquatic, soil, and indoor environments.  While some pollutants return to normal levels shortly after the fire, many others persist in the environment for long periods of time. 

The research team notes that additional work is needed to develop more long-term estimates of the chronic health effects of wildfires.

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Exposure to wildfires increases risk of cancer

Climate change is causing more wildfires and governments are unprepared, says U.N.

Photo, posted August 17, 2020, courtesy of USFS via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Scourge Of Salt | Earth Wise

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Rising seas are increasing saltwater intrusion on land and rising temperatures are causing greater evaporation.   The result is mounting levels of salt in waters and in soils.

Rising sea levels cause salty ocean water to push further into river deltas.  There is already a surge in saltiness across all inhabited continents.   Seawater works its way further upstream when dams hold back water.  Pumps that remove fresh water from underground sources for irrigation and drinking supplies add to the problem.  In dry regions, irrigation systems delivering water to crops increasingly bring salt onto fields.

People add to the problem by pouring saline drainage water from mines into rivers and by using salt to de-ice roads in the winter.

A modeling study pinpointed hotspots for climate change-induced salinization in numerous locations including the U.S. Southwest, wide areas of Australia, Mexico, South Africa, Brazil, central India, northern China, and more.

Some ecosystems are adapted to saline environments but major alterations in the balance between saline and fresh water is creating growing problems for ecosystems, lake fisheries, crop growing, and even human health.

The damage caused by salt is likely to be so severe that salinization will become a major cause of environmental refugees when the land they live on can no longer sustain them. 

Salt will be a growing threat to the world’s food supplies, especially where farmers depend on artificial irrigation.  About a third of the world’s food is grown in irrigated fields, and a fifth of those fields are deemed to already be salt-contaminated.  Ultimately, only a halt to climate change will be capable of combatting the scourge of salt.

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Salt Scourge: The Dual Threat of Warming and Rising Salinity

Photo, posted June 3, 2017, courtesy of Jason Jacobs via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Historic Western Drought | Earth Wise

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The American Southwest has suffered from drought conditions since the year 2000.  The drought has reduced water supplies, devastated farmers and ranchers, and it has helped to fuel numerous wildfires across the region.  It has generally been considered to be worst in 500 years.

According to a recent analysis, the drought has become so severe that it has actually led to the driest two decades in at least 1,200 years and the changing climate is largely responsible.  The summer of 2021 was especially dry; about 2/3 of the West was in severe drought conditions.

Scientists at UCLA used tree ring data to gauge drought.  Based on that analysis, 2000-2021 is the driest 22-year period since 800 A.D. which is as far back as the data goes.

The study confirmed the role of temperature, more than precipitation, in driving exceptional droughts.  Precipitation levels can go up and down over time and can vary in different regions.  But the ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are causing temperatures to generally rise over time.  Warmer temperatures make the air more capable of pulling water out of the soil, out of vegetation, out of crops, and out of forests.  All of that makes drought conditions more severe.

A megadrought is generally considered to be one that is both severe and long.  But even during one, there can be wet years.  2005 was a notable one.  But there must be enough consecutive wet years to actually end a drought.

Several previous megadroughts over the past 1,200 years lasted as long as 30 years.  So, the current drought is in full swing and may go on for a long time to come.

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How Bad Is the Western Drought? Worst in 12 Centuries, Study Finds.

Photo, posted September 25, 2021, courtesy of David Sierralupe via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Drought And U.S. Hydropower | Earth Wise

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The ongoing severe drought in the western U.S. has led to low water levels in the rivers and reservoirs that feed hydroelectric power systems.  The Energy Information Administration is projecting a 13.9% decrease in hydroelectric generation this year compared to 2020.

Water levels in Lake Powell have fallen so low that it may not be possible to operate the power plant at Glen Canyon Dam starting as soon as 2022.  California officials took the Edward Hyatt hydroelectric plant offline in August because of low water levels on Lake Oroville.   Washington, the state with the most hydroelectric power generation, has seen an 11% drop in electricity generated to date this year as compared to last year.  That state is actually doing better than others in the West, such as California, where hydro generation is down 38%.

Hydropower accounts for over 7% of the electricity generated in the United States.  Five states – Washington, Idaho, Vermont, Oregon, and South Dakota – generate at least half of their electricity from hydroelectric dams.

The current decrease in hydropower is alarming, but it is not unprecedented.  The more significant question is whether the drop in generation this year is a sign that this power source is declining and becoming less reliable.   According to some scientists, the West is in a “megadrought” that could last for decades.

The greater concern is whether the bad years are likely to become more common because of climate change.  Climate projections agree that temperatures will continue to rise, but what will happen to precipitation levels in specific places is much less certain.  That is what will determine what the future holds for hydroelectric power.

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Inside Clean Energy: Drought is Causing U.S. Hydropower to Have a Rough Year. Is This a Sign of a Long-Term Shift?

Photo, posted May 7, 2014, courtesy of Tyler Bell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Weather Disasters On The Rise | Earth Wise

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It seems like the news is always filled with stories about storms, heatwaves, drought, and forest fires.  This is because these things are happening with unprecedented frequency.

According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, weather disasters have become five times more common since 1970, in large part a result of climate change.  Extreme weather, climate, and water events are increasing and are becoming more frequent and severe in many parts of the world.

Between 1970 and 2019, there were more than 11,000 reported disasters attributed to weather, resulting in over 2 million deaths and $3.64 trillion dollars in economic losses.

Storms and floods were the most prevalent disasters.  The five costliest disasters ever are all hurricanes that have struck the United States over the past 20 years.

Droughts accounted for the greatest number of human losses, with severe droughts in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Sudan responsible for 650,000 deaths.

About the only positive news in the report was that even as disasters have grown more prevalent, deaths have declined, dropping from about 50,000 a year in the 1970s to fewer than 20,000 in the 2010s.  This is a result of better early warning systems.  We have gotten better at saving lives.  But early warning systems are woefully insufficient in much of the developing world, where more than 90% of disaster-related deaths occur.

Of the 77 weather-related disasters that struck between 2015 and 2017, 62 show the influence of human-caused climate change.  With the pace of climate change now accelerating, there are likely to be more frequent catastrophic disasters in the years to come.

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As the Planet Has Warmed, Weather Disasters Have Grown Fivefold, Analysis Shows

Photo, posted September 16, 2021, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Dangerous Fire Season | Earth Wise

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The western United States is entering the fire season under much worse drought conditions than last year.  Last year, 15,800 square miles burned in the U.S., mostly in the West.

The western U.S. is in the midst of a 20-year mega-drought.  Rainfall in the Rocky Mountains and farther west was the second lowest on record this April.  The soil in the western half of the country is the driest it has been since 1895.

The situation is particularly bad in California and the Southwest.  In March, less than a third of California was experiencing extreme or exceptional drought.  Now, 73% of the state is.  A year ago, a record-breaking fire season burned 4% of the state and, at that time, only 3% of California was in a state of extreme drought.

A year ago, no parts of Arizona, Nevada, or Utah were in extreme or exceptional drought.  Now, more than 90% of Utah, 86% of Arizona, and 75% of Nevada face severe drought conditions.  At this time last year, only 4% of New Mexico faced extreme drought but 77% does now.

These extreme drought conditions, which are believed to be linked to climate change, are causing increased tree mortality among many species, ranging from junipers in the Southwest even to drought-tolerant blue oaks in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Conditions are extremely ripe for a lot of forest fire this year.  Last year was a terrible year for wildfires in the West and we are heading into a fire season with much drier fuels than there were last year.  The risks of great damage from wildfires are higher than ever.

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US West Enters Fire Season Facing Extremely Dry Conditions

Photo, posted September 18, 2020, courtesy of USFS/National Interagency Fire Center via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

COVID-19 And The Wildlife Trade | Earth Wise

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Historically, many diseases have jumped from animals to people with serious consequences for the human host.  In fact, coronaviruses alone have caused outbreaks in humans three times in the past 20 years:  SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.  The majority of human pathogens that caused substantial damage to human health and economies during the past three decades have originated from wildlife or livestock.

According to a team of researchers from the University of Göttingen and other international institutions, more epidemics from animal hosts are inevitable unless urgent action is taken.  In order to help  protect against future pandemics, which could be even more severe than the current one, the researchers published a series of suggestions for governments to consider in the journal Trends in Ecology & Evolution.

The research team calls for governments around the world to establish effective legislation to do three things:  address the wildlife trade, protect habitats, and reduce the interaction between people, wildlife, and livestock. 

The wildlife trade and habitat fragmentation both facilitate disease outbreaks by increasing the potential for contact between humans and animals. Animals in wildlife markets are often kept in crowded and unsanitary conditions, which creates fertile breeding grounds for pathogens to jump to humans. Animals and humans are also forced closer together when natural habitats are cleared or otherwise fragmented in order to meet the various needs of a growing global population.  

Since the Covid-19 outbreak, China, Vietnam, and South Korea have introduced regulations to better manage the wildlife trade as well as support wildlife conservation.  According to the researchers, these actions serve as examples for other countries to consider.  The status quo isn’t good enough. 

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COVID-19 highlights risks of wildlife trade

Photo, posted August 23, 2010, courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Northeast Region via Flickr. Photo credit: Rosie Walunas/USFWS.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Widespread Drought | Earth Wise

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As the U.S. enters the last part of the summer, fully one-third of the country is experiencing at least a moderate level of drought.   Much of the West is reaching severe drought conditions and New England has been unusually dry and hot.  In total, over 50 million Americans are living in drought-affected areas.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor program, more than 93% of Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are experiencing drought to some degree.  More than 60% of both Utah and Colorado are in severe drought.   More than three-quarters of Oregon, Arizona, and Wyoming are also in drought.  And most of these areas had no sign of drought this time last year.

Severe drought conditions result in stunted and browning crops, limited pasture yields, dust storms, reduced well water levels, and an increase in the number and severity of wildfires.

Warm air temperatures and minimal snowfall in spring set the stage for this summer’s drought conditions.  A ridge of high pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean pushed the jet stream farther north than usual.  And, once again, there has been a failure of the southwestern monsoon in Arizona and New Mexico and the Four Corners region.  Monsoon rains provide half of the year’s precipitation in many of those areas. 

Instead, there has been extreme heat in the region.  Phoenix has already smashed the record for the most days over 110oF in a calendar year (42 as of August 18), with five months to go.  Las Vegas hasn’t seen measurable rainfall since April, and Cedar City, Utah has recorded a record low of 0.05 inches of rain this summer.

Conditions are not expected to get better for a couple of months.

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A Third of the U.S. Faces Drought

Photo, posted May 7, 2014, courtesy of Tyler Bell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Disease On Coral Reefs

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The warming oceans have led to bleaching events in coral reefs around the world, but bleaching is not the only problem corals face.  Disease outbreaks are also becoming more frequent, severe, and widespread.

Many factors are contributing to the problem, including pollution and nitrogen runoff from fertilizers and coastal sewer and septic systems.  However, the key culprit is likely the steadily increasing ocean temperatures, which are the cause of coral bleaching.  Elevated water temperatures can cause coral polyps to expel the algae that sustains them and gives them color. 

According to scientists, bleaching makes corals more susceptible to illness.  In the Caribbean, a coral disease hotspot, about 80% of coral cover has disappeared, largely from outbreaks of “white band disease”, so called because of a white band of dead tissue that forms in affected corals.  Two crucial reef-building species, elkhorn and staghorn coral, are now nearing extinction in the regions.  The reef extending along the Florida coastline is the third largest reef ecosystem in the world and nearly 35% of it has been lost to disease.

Estimates are that disease outbreaks have wiped out at least 6% of the corals on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia.  In that region, diseases are more prevalent in areas where corals were damaged by fishing and other human activity because wounded coral provides an entry point for pathogens and bacteria.

In the face of climate change and mounting disease outbreaks, scientists are scrambling for solutions to stave off catastrophe.  Assisting the migration of hardier coral species and breeding so-called “super corals” are among the strategies being pursued.  It is unknown whether these and other forms of intervention can be used on a wide enough scale to really make a difference.

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As Disease Ravages Coral Reefs, Scientists Scramble for Solutions

Photo, posted November 29, 2012, courtesy of Robert Linsdell via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Cold And Snow From Global Warming

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The Arctic has been experiencing record warm temperatures and record low sea ice levels.  During February, there were nine days in a row with temperatures averaging 27 degrees above normal and often above freezing.  Over the previous 20 years, there were only two previous readings above freezing in February – once in 2011 and once last year.

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Being Ready For Adverse Weather

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Severe weather is a major cause of death and destruction.   Recent hurricanes provided all too many examples.   The catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Harvey led to more than 60 deaths and necessitated thousands of emergency rescues.   And yet, increasingly, weather events like hurricanes don’t occur without warning and accurate weather forecasts are increasingly common.

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The Delhi Air Pollution Crisis

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Delhi, the capital city of India, has always been a city bursting at the seams.  With over 19 million people, heavy industry, growing numbers of vehicles, and choking amounts of road dust, Delhi suffers from some of the worst air pollution in the world.  It is a situation the country has been struggling with for years.

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Climate Change And Hurricanes

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No single weather event can be attributed to climate change.   Storms, floods and droughts have always happened and some of them have always been severe.   However, two centuries of people burning fossil fuels has altered temperatures just enough that some of the storms we have seen in recent times have been much worse than they otherwise would have been.

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