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Positive tipping points and climate

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We often hear about tipping points and climate change.  Tipping points are critical thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating, and often irreversible changes.  Some of the ones of concern with the climate are thawing permafrost, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and global temperatures reaching certain levels.  These are all tipping points that are essential to avoid.

A study published in the journal One Earth by researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK contends that in order to avoid the severe consequences of climate change, we need to trigger some positive tipping points.

Many climate-friendly changes are happening too slowly.  Triggering positive tipping points is a way to rapidly reach the high levels of decarbonization required to avoid triggering the negative tipping points of great concern.

Reaching a positive tipping point is a way that beneficial changes can rapidly gain momentum.  One example is the adoption of electric vehicles.  It has clearly reached a tipping point across Scandinavia and has happened rapidly.  Norway has managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to nearly 90% in less than 10 years.  At some point, everybody wanted an electric car.  This is evidence that positive tipping points can happen.

Many of the other forms of decarbonization need to move from their current level of adoption to rapid expansion.  A combination of affordability, attractiveness, availability, and political will are needed to trigger tipping points.  Exactly what those tipping point are is not necessarily known, but unless something accelerates the current pace of change, it will be very difficult to prevent negative climate tipping points from changing the world in destructive ways.

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Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis

Photo, posted July 8, 2023, courtesy of Michael Swan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Farming the frozen north

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Agriculture is the primary cause of land-based biodiversity loss.  As the global population grows, agricultural production needs to keep pace.  Estimates are that production needs to double by 2050.  How this can be accomplished without doing further harm to the environment and biodiversity is extremely challenging.

Climate change adds further complications to the challenge.  As the climate warms in the middle latitudes, agricultural zones may need to shift northward to regions which have evolved to have more suitable climates.  This represents a very real threat to the wilderness areas of Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia.  These places represent a significant fraction of the world’s wilderness areas outside of Antarctica.

According to researchers at the University of Exeter in the UK, if the forces driving climate change are not diminished, over the next 40 years warming temperatures are expected to make more than 1 million square miles newly suitable for growing crops.  As cropland goes barren in areas that have warmed too much, northern wilderness could be turned over to farming.  The vital integrity of these valuable areas could be irreversibly lost.

The study, published in the journal Current Biology, also says that climate change will shrink the variety of crops that can be grown on 72% of the land that is currently farmed worldwide.  Given this situation along with the rising global population, it is essential that land be used more efficiently.  We can feed a larger population from the farmland we already have, but people need to reduce meat consumption, cut food waste, and grow crops suited to their local climate.

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Warming Could Make Northern Wilderness Ripe for Farming, Study Finds

Photo, posted September 7, 2016, courtesy of Scott via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Geoengineering could create winners and losers

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Geoengineering – deliberate interventions to alter the climate and curb climate change – is a controversial topic, to say the least.  Once practically considered taboo even to discuss, there in increasing interest in at least exploring various ideas about how to halt or reverse climate change through direct actions that impact global temperatures.

Putting aside the very real concerns about the risks and dangers associated with such action, there is also the issue that climate interventions may create dramatically different effects across the globe, benefitting some areas and adversely affecting others.

A recent study by scientists at Rutgers University tackled this very issue.  Published in the journal Nature Food, it described the results of computer models simulating the impacts of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), which is spraying sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, where it would partially shield the Earth from the Sun, lowering temperatures.

The study looked at 11 different SAI scenarios and found that none of them benefitted everyone.  Uncontrolled global warming favors crop production in cold, high-latitude areas such as Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, and our northern border states.  Moderate amounts of SAI favors food production in the mid-latitudes (such as in the US and Europe.)  Large amounts of intervention favors agricultural production in the tropics. 

Even if geoengineering might not have dire consequences – which is by no means certain – it would create winners and losers.  Nations may have different ideas of what constitutes an optimal global temperature.  So, who gets to decide where to set the global thermostat?  The prospects for conflict loom large. 

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Climate Intervention Technologies May Create Winners and Losers in World Food Supply

Photo, posted November 18, 2021, courtesy of Conall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Vanishing Arctic Lakes | Earth Wise

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In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world.  The phenomenon is known as Arctic amplification.  A study by the Finnish Meteorological Institute published in August in Communications Earth & Environment determined that during the past 43 years, the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe.  The result of this amplified warming has been that glaciers are collapsing, wildlife is struggling, and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace.

Research published by the University of Florida has identified a new threat associated with Arctic amplification: lakes in the Arctic are drying up.

Over the past 20 years, many Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried up completely across the entire pan-Arctic region, which spans the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia, and Alaska.

Arctic lakes are essential elements of the Arctic ecosystem and for the indigenous communities that live in the region.  They provide a critical source of fresh water for those communities and local industries. 

The rapid decline of Arctic lakes is unexpected.  Earlier predictions were that climate change would first actually expand lakes in the region as ground ice melted.  Lakes drying out was not expected until much later in this century or even in the 22nd century.  Instead, it appears that thawing permafrost may drain lakes and overwhelm the expansion effect caused by melting ice.  The theory is that thawing permafrost decreases lake area by creating drainage channels and increasing soil erosion.

The finding suggest that permafrost thawing is occurring faster than anticipated, which presents many additional problems.

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As the climate crisis intensifies, lakes across the Arctic are vanishing

Photo, posted June 20, 2014, courtesy of Bob Wick / Bureau of Land Management via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Record Heat Across the Globe | Earth Wise

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While the Pacific Northwest was setting new records for high temperatures in June, many other places across the globe also experienced unprecedented heat.  Places in Russia and Scandinavia, including locations above the Arctic Circle, set new records for temperature.

The heatwave in Europe was the result of a persistent northward bulge in the polar jet stream.  This blocking pattern in the jet stream has been prevalent over Scandinavia this year and has contributed to unusually warm conditions there.  Further east, similar conditions have created unusual warm temperatures in Siberia.

On June 23, Moscow reached a high of 94.6 degrees, the hottest June temperature on record.  Helsinki, Finland set a record at 89.1 degrees, and both Belarus at 96.3 degrees and Estonia at 94.3 degrees set new records.  The town of Saskylah, north of the Arctic Circle in Siberia, measured almost 90 degrees on June 20. 

High temperature records have been broken in many places.  The all-time record high for June for all of Mexico fell at Mexicali in Baja California on June 17 when the temperature reached 125 degrees.  Palm Springs, California, while known for its desert heat, nonetheless set a new all-time high temperature of 123 degrees and also set a new record for the warmest overnight low temperature for a June night anywhere in North America at an unbelievable 105 degrees.

Stories like this have become all-too common in recent years and are undoubtedly going to occur with greater frequency as the world’s climate continues to react to the growing buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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A Scorcher in Siberia and Europe

Photo, posted June 8, 2007, courtesy of Niko Pettersen via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Saving The Arctic Permafrost | Earth Wise

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Permafrost is frozen ground – a combination of soil, rock, sand, and ice – that remains at or below freezing for at least two consecutive years.  Approximately 25% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere meets this criterion, the majority of which can be found in northern Russia, Canada, Alaska, Iceland, and Scandinavia.

But as a result of the changing climate, these permafrost soils in the Arctic are beginning to thaw.  As they thaw, large quantities of greenhouse gases could be released, further accelerating climate change.  

A new study recently published in the journal Scientific Reports explores an unconventional countermeasure: resettling massive herds of large herbivores.  According to researchers from the University of Hamburg in Germany, herds of horses, bison, and reindeer could be used to significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils. 

During Arctic winters, the air temperature is often much colder than the permafrost.  Thick layers of snow can insulate the ground from the frigid air, keeping the permafrost warm (relatively speaking). But when the snow cover is scattered and compressed by the hooves of grazing animals, the insulating effect is reduced, which intensifies the freezing of the permafrost.

If climate change continues unchecked, the research team expects permafrost temperatures to rise 3.8-degrees Celsius.  This would result in half of the world’s permafrost thawing by the year 2100.  But in contrast, researchers found that the permafrost would only warm by 2.1 degrees Celsius with the resettled animals.  This 44% reduction in permafrost temperature would preserve 80% of the existing permafrost by 2100.

Natural manipulations of ecosystems could have tremendous results. 

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How horses can save the permafrost

Photo, posted July 17, 2012, courtesy of Kitty Terwolbeck via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Melting Permafrost | Earth Wise

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The Arctic is warming faster than any region on Earth and mostly we’ve been hearing about the rapid disappearance of Arctic sea ice.  But the land in the Arctic is also undergoing major changes, especially to the permafrost that has been there for millennia.

Permafrost occurs in areas where the temperature of the ground remains below freezing for two years or more.  About a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere’s landscape meets this criterion.  Most of the world’s permafrost is found in northern Russia, Canada, Alaska, Iceland, and Scandinavia.

Permafrost regions previously carpeted in cranberries, blueberries, shrubs, sedges, and lichen are now being transformed into nothing but mud, silt, and peat.  So-called regressive thaw slumps – essentially landslides – are creating large craters in the landscape.  (The Batagaika Crater in the Yana River Basin of Siberia is a kilometer long and 100 meters deep).

Apart from the violence being done to the Arctic landscape, the greatest concern is that the permafrost has locked in huge stores of greenhouse gases, including methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide.  It is estimated that the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as is currently contained in the atmosphere.  As the permafrost thaws, these gases will be released.  With them will be pathogens from bygone millennia whose impact cannot be predicted.  Climatologists estimate that 40% of the permafrost could be gone by the end of the century.

As the permafrost thaws, the region’s ecosystems are changing, making it increasingly difficult for subsistence indigenous people and Arctic animals to find food.  Landslides are causing stream flows to change, lakes to suddenly drain, seashores to collapse, and water chemistry to be altered.

The warming Arctic is about much more than disappearing sea ice.

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How Thawing Permafrost Is Beginning to Transform the Arctic

Photo, posted February 9, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Largest Offshore Wind Farm

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The world’s largest offshore wind farm recently began operations in the North Sea, a notoriously gusty stretch of open water that has become home to multiple large wind farms.  The new Hornsea One wind farm is located 75 miles off the east coast of Yorkshire in the United Kingdom.

The first 50 turbines are now in operation and are generating electricity for up to 287,000 homes.  When the farm is completed sometime next year, it will have 174 turbines with a total capacity of 1.2 gigawatts, enough to power a million homes.  The farm will send electricity to the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and Scandinavia.  The Hornsea One farm will have more than twice the capacity of the current largest offshore operation, which is also in the UK.

Because the farm is so far from shore, teams of workers will live at sea for two to four weeks at a time maintaining it.  Such operations are unprecedented and required new ways of operating to overcome the logistical and technical challenges of operating a massive power station far from land.

The UK has the largest offshore wind generating capacity in Europe, now more than 8.2 gigawatts and accounting for 44% of Europe’s offshore wind capacity.  All that capacity is one of the big reasons that the UK has been successfully weaning itself off of coal for increasingly long periods of time.

Meanwhile, the US continues to lag far behind in offshore wind with a grand total of 0.03 gigawatts of installed capacity.  That situation may be changing after the federal government auctioned off 3 major tracts of ocean late last year that potentially could generate over 4 gigawatts of power if fully developed.

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The World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm Just Came Online

Photo credit: Hornsea Project One.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

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