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Sinking Cities | Earth Wise

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Sea levels across the globe are rising as a result of the changing climate.  Two factors are largely responsible: the melting of ice sheets in the polar regions and the fact that as the oceans get warmer, the water in them expands.  

Estimates are that by 2050, there will be over 800 million people living in 570 cities that will be at risk from rising sea levels.   The rising waters can drown neighborhoods, put people’s lives at risk, and wreck entire economies.  Unless global emissions can be reduced sufficiently, sea levels will continue to rise.

A new study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability by Nanyang Technical University in Singapore in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, ETH Zurich, and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, has focused on yet another aspect of the threat to coastal cities.  They have found that many densely populated coastal cities worldwide are even more vulnerable to sea level rise because much of their land is sinking. 

The researchers processed satellite images of 48 cities from 2014 to 2020 using a system called Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar.  They found that land subsidence varied on a neighborhood and even individual block level but across all the cities studied, there was a median sinking speed of 6/10” a year.  Some places had land that is sinking at 1.7” per year.  Meanwhile, the global mean sea-level rise is about .15” per year.

The increasing prevalence of industrial processes such as the extraction of groundwater, and oil and gas, along with the rapid construction of buildings and other urban infrastructure are leading to the sinking of the urban areas. 

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Rapid land sinking leaves global cities vulnerable to rising seas

Photo, posted October 24, 2015, courtesy of Jeffrey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Is It Really Getting Warmer? | Earth Wise

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The primary indicator of global climate change is the Global Mean Surface Temperature of the Earth and the world’s nations are trying to keep its increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial level.   That rise in temperature is called the Global Surface Temperature Anomaly and it actually reached an all-time high in 2016 at 1.02 degrees before going back down.

At this point, you might be saying, “hold on there…  it hasn’t gotten larger over the past 5 years?”  What’s going on?

The global climate is pretty complicated and there are many things that influence it.  One of the most significant factors is the El Niño Southern Oscillation or, more familiarly, the El Niño.  The El Niño is a periodic and irregular variation in the sea surface temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean driven by persistent westerly winds.  When an El Niño is happening, currents move to the west coast of South America and warm the tropics and subtropics.  This causes a spike in the global mean temperature.  There was a strong El Niño in 2016.

On the other hand, when easterly winds dominate to form a La Niña, cool water comes up from the depths of the Pacific and cools the atmosphere.  In 2017 and 2018, there was a fairly strong La Niña, lowering the global mean temperature.  2020 had no El Niño or La Niña, and the global temperature went back up to its previous peak.  Last year, there was again a La Niña and the temperature dipped again.

The global mean surface temperature has been rising in the industrial era, but it also fluctuates with the complicated dynamics of the Pacific Ocean.

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Why Isn’t It Getting Warmer?

Photo, posted February 12, 2016, courtesy of Amit Patel via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change On Mount Everest | Earth Wise

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Climate change has shown up in the highest place on Earth.  The highest glacier on Mount Everest is rapidly retreating with rising temperatures.

New research by an international team led by the University of Maine and published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science has determined that the South Col Glacier atop Mount Everest has shrunk by half since the 1990s.   Its ice mass has thinned by an estimated 180 feet.

The glacier used to be covered by snow, which reflected the sun’s light and insulated the mass of ice under the snow.  But warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and more severe winds have eliminated the snow cover, fueling the decline of the glacier.

The study of the South Col Glacier highlights the critical balance created by snow-covered surfaces and exposes the potential for loss throughout high mountain glacier systems as snow cover is depleted by warming temperatures.  When even the highest glacier on Mount Everest is impacted, it is clear that no place is safe from the warming climate.

The human significance of this development is substantial.  More than 200 million people in Asia depend on meltwater from glaciers in the high mountains of the continent for their freshwater needs.  But now glaciers in the mountains are melting faster than they can be replenished by snowfall.

As for Mount Everest itself, future expeditions on the mountain will face new challenges as glacier melting causes more avalanches and climbers accustomed to digging into ice and snow will need to scale more exposed bedrock.  Climate predictions for the Himalaya in general all anticipate continued warming and continued loss of glacier mass.

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Climate Change Has Reached the Top of Mount Everest, Thinning Its Highest Glacier

Photo, posted October 27, 2011, courtesy of Goran Hogland via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Spring Is Coming Earlier In Britain | Earth Wise

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The United Kingdom has some of the most detailed records of seasonal changes anywhere in the world.  Since the 18th century, observations of seasonal changes have been recorded by scientists, naturalists, amateur and professional gardeners, and organizations such as the Royal Meteorological Society.  Researchers at two British institutions have collected and collated these records into a database they call Nature’s Calendar, which currently has about 3.5 million records going back to 1736.

By analyzing more than 400,000 observations of 406 plant species in Nature’s Calendar, they found that the average first flowering date from 1987 to 2019 is a full month earlier than the average from 1753 to 1986.  The change correlates very well with rising global temperatures.

The ecological risks associated with earlier flowering times are high.  When plants flower too early, a late frost can kill them – a phenomenon most gardeners have experienced at some point or another.  Beyond that, plants, insects, birds, and other wildlife have co-evolved to be synchronized with plants in their development stages.  A certain plant flowers and attracts a certain kind of insect, which then attracts a particular kind of bird, and so on.  If plants get out of sync with the animals in the ecosystem and the animals can’t change their behavior quickly enough, it can lead to species collapse.

If global temperatures continue to increase at their current rate, spring in the UK could eventually start in February, creating serious problems for many of the species that inhabit forests, gardens, and farms.  The dangers of climate change are not just about extreme weather.

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UK plants flowering a month earlier due to climate change

Photo, posted February 1, 2012, courtesy of Mandy via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Floating Homes In The Netherlands | Earth Wise

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The Netherlands is a country that is largely built on reclaimed land and a third of it remains below sea level.  The Dutch have long experience with dealing with rising waters.  The city of Amsterdam has almost 3,000 houseboats in its canals.

As sea levels continue to rise across the globe, it is no surprise that the Dutch have taken the lead in creating communities composed of floating houses and buildings.

A floating house is a structure fixed to the shore, often resting on steel poles, and usually connected to the local sewer system and power grid.  They are much like ordinary houses except that instead of a basement, they have a concrete hull that acts as a counterweight, allowing them to remain stable in the water.

The ones in the Netherlands are often prefabricated, square-shaped, three-story townhouses.  Rotterdam, which is 90% below sea level, is home to the world’s largest floating office building as well as a floating farm.

Floating buildings have their challenges, not the least of which are the effects of severe wind and rainstorms, or even the passing of large ships which can make the buildings rock.  Infrastructure like electricity and sewer service is not that simple to implement for the buildings.  But the benefits of floating buildings may outweigh the costs.

For cities facing worsening floods and a shortage of buildable land, floating homes are a potential solution for expanding urban housing in the age of climate change.  Dutch engineers are spearheading floating building projects in Britain, France, and Norway, as well as in threatened island locations like French Polynesia and the Maldives.

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Embracing a Wetter Future, the Dutch Turn to Floating Homes

Photo, posted May 23, 2007, courtesy of Jeff Hutchison via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Threat From Thwaites | Earth Wise

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The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is the widest glacier in the world. It is about 80 miles across and in places extends to a depth of about 2,600 to 3,900 feet.  The glacier is roughly the size of Florida, and it currently contributes 4% of annual global sea level rise as it continues to retreat from a warming ocean.

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration is a team of nearly 100 scientists dedicated to studying the glacier.  According to the scientists, Thwaites has doubled its outflow speed within the last 30 years.  The glacier in its entirety holds enough water to raise global sea levels by over two feet, which would be catastrophic.

A third of the glacier flows more slowly than the rest because it is braced by a floating ice shelf that is held in place by an underwater mountain.  The concern is that the brace of ice slowing the glacier may not last for long.

Beneath the surface, warmer ocean water is attacking the glacier from all angles.  The water is melting the ice directly beneath the glacier causing it to lose its grip on the underwater mountain.  Massive fractures have formed and are growing.

Warm water is also a threat for what is called the grounding zone, which is the area where the glacier lifts off the seabed. There are many possible scenarios under which there could be a major ice loss from the glacier.  It is unclear how quickly it could occur.  It might take decades, or it could be centuries.  The threat is large enough and real enough that continued observation and research is essential.

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The Threat from Thwaites: The Retreat of Antarctica’s Riskiest Glacier

Photo, posted October 16, 2012, courtesy of J. Yungel / NASA Ice via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Global Flood Risk From Melting Ice | Earth Wise

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Approximately 10% of the land area on Earth is covered by ice.  This includes glaciers, ice caps, and the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.  Nearly 70% of all fresh water on earth is locked away in ice.  If all this land ice were to melt, global sea levels would rise by more than 200 feet. 

According to new research led by researchers at the University of Leeds in the U.K., global warming is causing extreme ice melting events in Greenland to become more frequent and more intense over the past 40 years, leading to an increased risk of flooding worldwide.   

According to the findings, which were recently published in the journal Nature Communications, approximately 3.85 trillion tons of ice has melted from the surface of Greenland and into the ocean during the past decade alone.  That’s enough melted ice to cover all of New York City with nearly 15,000 feet of water. 

Rising sea levels threaten the lives and livelihoods of those living in coastal communities around the world.  Beyond the obvious risk of flooding in low-lying areas, rising seas also disrupt marine ecosystems that many coastal communities rely on for food and work.       

Rising sea levels can also alter patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation, which in turn affect weather conditions around the planet.

Estimates from models suggest that melting ice from Greenland will contribute between 1 inch and 9 inches to global sea level rise by 2100. 

These findings are just another reminder of how we need to act urgently to mitigate climate change if we want to prevent the worst-case scenarios from becoming reality. 

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Increased frequency of extreme ice melting in Greenland raises global flood risk

Photo, posted April 21, 2017, courtesy of Markus Trienke via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Grid-Scale Battery Storage is on the Rise | Earth Wise

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Driven by steeply falling prices and improving technology, grid-scale battery storage systems are seeing record growth in the U.S. and around the world. Battery storage is a way to overcome one of the biggest obstacles to renewable energy:  the cycling between oversupply when the sun shines or the wind blows, and shortage when the sun sets or the wind drops.  Storing excess energy in battery banks can smooth imbalances between supply and demand.

In California, a 300-megawatt lithium-ion battery plant is being readied for operation with another 100 megawatts to come online in 2021.  The system will be able to power roughly 300,000 California homes for four-hour periods when energy demand outstrips supply.  It will be the world’s largest battery system for a while until even larger systems in Florida and in Saudi Arabia come online.

Nationwide, a record 1.2 gigawatts of storage were installed last year and that number is projected to jump dramatically over the next five years to nearly 7.5 gigawatts in 2025.

The price tag for utility-scale battery storage in the U.S. has plummeted, dropping nearly 70% just between 2015 and 2018.  Prices are expected to drop by a further 45% over the next decade.  Battery performance has continued to improve dramatically with increased power capacity and the ability to store and discharge energy over ever-longer periods of time. 

Favorable energy policies including renewable energy mandates coupled with continued price drops will drive the widespread expansion of battery energy storage.

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In Boost for Renewables, Grid-Scale Battery Storage Is on the Rise

Photo, posted November 17, 2016, courtesy of Steve Ryan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hudson River Tidal Marshes And Sea Level Rise | Earth Wise

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A new study at the University of Massachusetts Amherst looked at the resilience of Hudson River Estuary marshes to rising sea levels.  They observed that these marshes are growing upward at a rate two or three times faster than sea level rise, suggesting that they should be resilient to accelerated sea level rise in the future.

The study documented the fact that more than half of Hudson River tidal marshes actually formed since 1850.  In that year, the river channel was straightened, and a riverside railroad, berms, jetties and human-made islands of dredged soil were built.  All of these human-made features trapped sediment and created backwaters that often turned into marshes.

The research centered on seven sites spanning more than 100 miles of the Hudson Estuary from Wall Street up to Albany.  Although these marshes were an unintended result of early industrial development, they serve to protect the shoreline and provide rich ecosystems in terms of direct ecological and human benefits.  Marshes are a first line of defense against coastal flooding, provide an essential habitat for juvenile commercial fish species, store huge amounts of carbon that mitigates climate change, provide habitat for migratory birds, and filter nutrients coming off the land.

The study determined that such marches form relatively quickly.  When sediment is readily available, freshwater tidal wetlands can develop rapidly in sheltered settings.   There is concern that marshes globally will be drowned by rising sea levels, but this Hudson River case study shows how marshes may be able to resist the rising seas.  The research will help guide future land acquisition and land conservation strategies for areas adjacent to the river.

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New Study Finds More than Half of Hudson River Tidal Marshes were Created Accidentally by Humans; Resilient Against Sea Level Rise

Photo, posted December 4, 2008, courtesy of Daina Dajevskis via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Alien Species On The Rise | Earth Wise

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Alien species are species that are introduced, accidentally or intentionally, outside of their natural geographic range as a result of human activities.  More than 35,000 alien species have been recorded through 2005, which is the most recent year for which researchers have comprehensive global data. 

Some of the alien species go on to become invasive alien species, which can have damaging impacts on both ecosystems and economies.  In fact, alien species are one of the main drivers of plant and animal extinctions around the globe.  

According to a new study by an international research team involving University College London, the number of alien species, particularly insects, arthropods and birds, is expected to increase globally by 36% by 2050 when compared to 2005 levels.  The research was recently published in the journal Global Change Biology.

Using a mathematical model developed for the study, the researchers identified high levels of variations between regions.  For example, the largest increase in alien species by the middle of the century is expected in Europe, where numbers are predicted to jump by 64%.  The temperate regions of Asia, North America, and South America are also predicted to be hotspots of alien species.  The lowest relative increase in alien species is expected in Australia.

The researchers do not expect a reversal or slowdown in the spread of alien species.  In fact, with global transportation and trade forecasted to increase in the coming decades, they anticipate many new species will infiltrate non-native habitats by hitching rides as stowaways.   

According to the research team, it would take a concerted global effort with stricter regulations and more rigorous enforcement to slow the flow of new species. 

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Alien species to increase by 36% worldwide by 2050

Photo, posted October 3, 2016, courtesy of the Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee via Flickr. Photo credit: Ryan Hagerty/USFWS.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Alaska Is Getting Wetter | Earth Wise

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Siberia has been in the news for record-setting heat waves and wildfires, but it is not the only northern region experiencing unusual weather.   Alaska, apart from setting its own warm weather records, is experiencing the rainiest five years in its century-long meteorological record.

Extreme weather in the Arctic is being driven by an aspect of climate change called Arctic amplification, which leads to temperatures rising faster than the global average.  The physical basis of Arctic amplification is well understood, but its effects over time are much less predictable.

The past five years included two summers with average precipitation, one that was a little drier than usual, and two of the wettest summers on record.    Researchers have taken measurements of how far below the surface permafrost has thawed by the end of summer over a wide range of Alaskan environments.

About 85% of Alaska sits upon permafrost and the increasing rainfall over the past five years is leading to a deeper thaw of permafrost across the state.  The wettest summer on record was 2014 and permafrost didn’t freeze back to previous levels even when the next couple of summers were relatively drier.

The study demonstrated how different types of land cover govern relationships between summer rainfall and permafrost thaw.  As Alaska becomes warmer and wetter, the vegetation cover is projected to change, and the increasing occurrence of wildfires will disturb larger areas of the landscape.  These conditions are likely to lead to a feedback loop driving more and more permafrost thawing.

Fundamental changes to Alaskan ecosystems are occurring on an unprecedented timescale – not gradually over decades or lifetimes, but over mere months or years.

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Alaska is getting wetter. That’s bad news for permafrost and the climate.

Photo, posted June 10, 2011, courtesy of Peter Rintels via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Renewables Are Slowly Taking Over | Earth Wise

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According to data released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, wind, solar, and hydropower provided 100% of the 1.3 GW in new U.S. electrical generating capacity added in April 2020.  Furthermore, the FERC report revealed that renewable sources accounted for 56% of the 9 GW added during the first four months of the year.  Apart from renewables, the balance of new generation was almost entirely made up of new natural gas capacity.   There have been no new capacity additions by coal, oil, nuclear power, or geothermal energy since the beginning of the year.

Renewable energy sources now account for nearly 23% of the nation’s total available installed generating capacity and continue to increase their lead over coal, which now accounts for only 20% of the nation’s electricity generation.

FERC data also suggests that renewables’ share of generating capacity should increase significantly over the next three years.  So-called “high probability” generation capacity additions for wind, minus anticipated retirements, project a net increase of nearly 27 GW, while solar is projected to grow by 24 GW.  By comparison, net growth for natural gas is expected to be just over 20 GW. 

Hydropower, geothermal, and biomass are all expected to experience net growth while the generating capacity of coal and oil are expected to plummet.   Nuclear power is forecasted to remain essentially unchanged.

In total, over the next three years,  the mix of all renewables is predicted to add more than 50 times the net new generating capacity added by natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear power combined.  Renewables are truly on the rise.

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Renewable Energy Provides All New US Generating Capacity in April – Forecast to Add Almost 50x More Than Coal, Oil, Gas & Nuclear Over Next Three Years

Photo, posted May 24, 2011, courtesy of Michael Mees via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Conserving The Colorado River | Earth Wise

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Last year, we talked about the troubles facing the Colorado River.  Nearly two decades of drought conditions have reduced the water levels of the two largest reservoirs of Colorado River water and have threatened the water supply of millions of people in the region.  Clear scientific evidence shows that climate change is constricting the iconic river and will do further damage as temperatures rise.

Faced with these facts, water resource managers have been implementing conservation policies in the region and the results so far are very encouraging.

The use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin – Arizona, California, and Nevada – fell to a 33-year low in 2019.  The three states consumed just over 6.5 million acre-feet for the year, which is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under the legal agreement that allocates Colorado River water.

The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, which is the year that Arizona opened a large canal that extracts river water for its entitlement. 

A key indicator of river health is the depth of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir of Colorado River water.  It has been steadily dropping in recent years, but last year, with the reduced consumption, the water level actually increased by 12 feet.

According to water managers, the steady drop in water consumption in recent years is a sign that conservation efforts are working and that there are strategies that can deal with chronic shortages on the river in the future.  It represents an important demonstration that it is possible to use less water in a region that irrigates 5 million acres of farmland and has 40 million people in 2 countries and 29 tribal nations.

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Remarkable Drop in Colorado River Water Use a Sign of Climate Adaptation

Photo, posted July 7, 2015, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Rising Threat Of Rising Seas | Earth Wise

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Global sea level rose by about 6 inches during the 20th century.  It is currently rising more than twice as fast and accelerating.  The rate of rise was 2.5 times faster from 2006 to 2016 than it was for nearly all of the 20th century.

Sea level rise occurs when glaciers and ice sheets lose mass.  Much of that meltwater comes from Greenland and Antarctica.  But levels also rise because, as water warms, it expands.  Added to that are the effects of human activities such as groundwater depletion and a geological phenomenon called isostatic adjustment that is going on in parts of the East Coast where the land is actually sinking.

In Atlantic Canada, sea level rise is outpacing the global average and has already led to boardwalks swamped by swelling tides, drowned forests, submerged wharfs, and threatened historic shoreline buildings.

Recent research suggests that globally, land now occupied by 300 million people could be affected by floods at least once a year by 2050 unless carbon emissions are significantly reduced, and coastal defenses strengthened.  (This new figure is more than three times higher than earlier estimates).

Researchers at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia are studying nature-based strategies for mitigating the effects of the rising seas.  These include conserving or restoring coastal ecosystems like dunes, wetlands, and reefs which could provide protection at a lower cost than building seawalls and other man-made obstacles.  Wetlands, for example, can reduce the force of waves and act as obstacles to storm surges, while also trapping sediment and stemming erosion.  Wetlands also serve as important carbon stores, but it is estimated that roughly half of the world’s coastal wetlands have been lost over the past 100 years to human activity and extreme weather events.

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The Looming Threat of Rising Sea Levels – And What We Can Do About it

Photo, posted February 14, 2015, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Rising Seas Will Erase Cities

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According to new research, climate-driven sea level rise could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought.  This sobering assessment means some of the world’s great coastal cities, including Bangkok, Shanghai, Mumbai, Basra, Alexandria, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be in big trouble.   

Scientists have always relied on land elevation data to determine the effects of sea level rise over large areas.  But standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings.  The authors of the paper developed a more accurate way to calculate land elevation by using artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and to correct for it.  The new findings revealed that 150 million people – three times more than previously thought – are now living on land that is projected to be below the high-tide line by the middle of this century. 

Eight Asian nations – China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan – account for about 70% of the people living on at-risk land. 

More than 20 million people in Vietnam, including much of Ho Chi Minh City, live on land that will be inundated by 2050.  In Thailand, more than 10% of its citizens, including much of Bangkok, currently live on land imperiled by projected sea level rise. 

This new research was produced by Climate Central, a New Jersey-based science organization, and was recently published in the journal Nature Communications. 

Sea level rise is clearly not just an environmental problem.  It’s a humanitarian crisis.

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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

Photo, posted December 18, 2009, courtesy of Misko via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And El Niño

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The term El Niño refers to a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.  Amazingly, the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, leading to intensifying droughts, worsening floods, and shifting hurricane patterns.

The study, led by scientists in China and the US, looked at data from 33 El Niños dating back to 1901.  Since the 1970s, El Niños have been forming farther to the west in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are warmer.  Strong El Niños can cause severe drought in dry climates such as Australia and India, intense flooding in wetter climates such as the US Pacific Northwest and Peru, and more hurricanes to form in the Pacific and fewer in the Atlantic.

Before 1978, 12 out of 14 El Niños formed east of the International Dateline.  Since 1978, all 11 have formed in the central or western Pacific Ocean a shift of hundreds of miles.  There have been three so-called super El Niños since the shift – in 1982, 1997, and 2015.  These have set new average temperature records and triggered catastrophic natural disasters.

With rising global temperatures, El Niños are likely to continue to intensify, with major impacts on human societies around the world.

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Climate Change is Making El Niños More Intense, Study Finds

Photo, posted January 20, 2016, courtesy of Los Angeles District via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hundred-Year Floods Becoming One-Year Floods

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By definition, 100-year floods are intense flooding events that historically tend to happen once every 100 years.  Put another way, a 100-year flood has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

According to new research published in the journal Nature Communications, rising global temperatures may turn 100-year floods into annual occurrences in parts of the United States.  The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be a result of rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

The study, led by researchers at Princeton University and MIT, examined flood risk for 171 counties along the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.  Their analysis concluded that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England.  In the US Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods as often as every year up to as seldom as every 30 years.

Previously, most analysis of coastal flooding has looked only at the impact of sea level rise on flood risk.  This new research combined the risk of rising seas with projected changes in coastal storms over the course of this century.  Data from the Gulf of Mexico revealed that the effect of stronger storms is comparable with or even more significant than the effect of sea level change for 40% of the counties studied.  So, neglecting the effects of storm climatology change is likely to significantly underestimate the impact of climate change in many places.

The hope is that more comprehensive flood risk data can be used to create more effective climate resiliency strategies all the way down to the county level.

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100-Year Floods Could Soon Happen Annually in Parts of U.S., Study Finds

Photo, posted August 31, 2017, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And The Bottom Line

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Large companies around the world are facing up to the fact that climate change could substantially affect their bottom lines within the next five years.  Shareholders and regulators have been applying pressure to companies to disclose the specific financial impacts they could face as the planet warms and companies are increasingly making those disclosures.

A non-profit charity called CDP (formerly known as the Carbon Disclosure Project) runs the global disclosure system for investors, companies, cities, states, and regions to manage their environmental impacts.  In 2018, more than 7,000 companies submitted reports to CDP and, for the first time, CDP explicitly asked firms to try to calculate how a warming planet might affect them financially.

Analysis of the reports from 215 of the world’s 500 largest corporations revealed that these companies alone potentially faced roughly $1 trillion in costs related to climate change in the decades ahead unless they took proactive steps to prepare. 

Climate-related risks range from extreme weather that could disrupt supply chains to stricter climate regulations that could hurt the value of coal, oil, and gas investments.  Technology companies like Google’s parent company, Alphabet, Inc., face increased costs to cool energy-hungry data centers as temperatures rise.

In all, the world’s largest companies estimated that at least $250 billion of assets may need to be written off or retired early as the planet heats up.  Previous studies, based on computer climate modeling, have estimated that the risks of global warming, if left unmanaged, could cost the world’s financial sector between $1.7 trillion to $24.2 trillion in net present value terms.

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Companies See Climate Change Hitting Their Bottom Lines in the Next 5 Years

Photo, posted February 29, 2016, courtesy of Ben Nuttall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Desalination On The Rise

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Desalination has been regarded for decades as a solution for providing fresh water to places where it is scarce.  With drought becoming more common around the world – sometimes even in places where water supplies were thought to be ample – there is increasing pressure to bring new desalination plants online.

San Diego gets only 12 inches of rain a year and has no groundwater.  It gets half its water from the distant Colorado River, and that source is becoming increasingly unreliable.  Thus, it is no surprise that America’s largest desalination plant is in Carlsbad, about 30 miles north of San Diego.  That plant provides about 10% of the fresh water needs of the region’s 3.1 million people.

There are 11 desalination plants in California, and 10 more are proposed. Desalination is huge in Saudi Arabia, Australia and Israel.  Globally, more than 300 million people get their water from desalination.

But there are problems.  Desalination is expensive and energy-intensive.  If the process is powered by fossil fuels, it contributes to global warming.  There are ecological impacts as well since it takes two gallons of sea water to make a gallon of fresh water, and the gallon left behind is extremely briny and potentially harmful to dump back into the sea.  The intake systems of desalination plants are also harmful to fish and other aquatic creatures.

The cost of desalination has dropped by more than half over the last 30 years but water from it still costs about twice as much as that from other main sources.  The technology is getting better and cheaper, but the industry must confront and solve serious environmental and economic problems in order for desalination to be able to meet the needs of an increasingly thirsty world.

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As Water Scarcity Increases, Desalination Plants Are on the Rise

Photo, posted January 12, 2011, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Climate Change And Economic Inequality

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A new study by Stanford University looked at the effects of climate change on global economic inequality.  The study found that the gap between the economic output of the world’s richest and poorest countries is larger today than it would have been without global warming.

The warming climate has enriched cooler countries like Norway and Sweden while dragging down economic growth in warm countries such as India and Nigeria.  The results of the study showed that most of the poorest countries on Earth are considerably poorer than they would have been in the absence of rising temperatures.  At the same time, the majority of rich countries are richer than they would have otherwise been.

Detailed analysis of 50 years of annual temperature and GDP measurements for 165 countries demonstrated that growth during warmer than average years has accelerated in cool nations and slowed in warm nations.  Historical data clearly show that crops are more productive, people are healthier, and they are more productive at work when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold.  That means that in cold countries, a little bit of warming can help but the opposite is true in places that are already hot.

For most counties, whether global warming has helped or hurt economic growth is pretty certain.  Tropical countries in particular tend to have temperatures far outside the ideal for economic growth and they are already among the poorest countries.  It is less clear how warming has influenced growth in countries in the middle latitudes, such as here in the United States.  Some of the largest economies are near the perfect temperature for economic output but continued warming in the future is likely to push them away from the temperature optimum.

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Climate change has worsened global economic inequality

Photo, posted November 1, 2011, courtesy of CIAT via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

WAMC Northeast Public Radio

WAMC/Northeast Public Radio is a regional public radio network serving parts of seven northeastern states (more...)