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The oceans are warming faster

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A new study has shown that the rate of ocean warming has more than quadrupled over the past 40 years.  The study, by researchers at the University of Reading in the UK, helps to explain why there have been unprecedented ocean temperatures in 2023 and 2024.

Global ocean temperatures hit record highs for 450 days straight in 2023 and early 2024.  Some of this unusual warmth came from the El Niño that was taking place at the time, but the rest of the increased temperature came from the sea surface warming up more quickly over the past 10 years than in previous decades.  In the late 1980s, ocean temperatures were rising at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade.  According to the recent research, they are now increasing at 0.27 degrees per decade.

The acceleration of ocean warming is driven by growth in the Earth’s energy imbalance, meaning that more energy from the sun is being absorbed by the Earth than is escaping back into space.  This energy imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010 as a result of two factors:  increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and reductions in the Earth’s albedo.

Earth’s albedo, the measure of how much sunlight is reflected back into space, has been declining since the 1970s, primarily due to the decrease in snow and ice cover, especially in the Arctic. 

The overall rate of ocean warming observed over recent decade is likely to only increase.  This underscores the urgency of reducing fossil fuel burning to avoid even more rapid temperature increases in the future.

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Ocean-surface warming four times faster now than late-1980s

Photo, posted January 18, 2007, courtesy of Alexey Krasavin via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Modeling geoengineering

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As the impacts of climate change continue to mount up, there is increasing interest in radical intervention measures designed to keep a lid on rising global temperatures.  Such measures are fraught with potential dangers and unintended consequences but there is no guarantee that one or another of them might still be attempted in the future.  Increasing international interest in geoengineering as a potential strategy for mitigating climate change has created a pressing need to consider its impact before any potentially irreversible actions are taken.

The Natural Environment Research Council in the UK is funding four research projects aimed at understanding the potential consequences of solar radiation modification (SRM) being deployed in the real world.

SRM consists of methods to reflect some of the Sun’s radiation back into space instead of allowing it to reach and warm the earth. 

One approach is stratospheric aerosol intervention in which particles such as sulfates are introduced into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight thereby producing a dimming effect.   The idea is to mimic the effects of large volcanic eruptions, which naturally send sulfates into the atmosphere.

A second approach is marine cloud brightening, which increases the reflectivity of clouds over the ocean by spraying very small droplets of sea water into the air.  The fine particles of sea salt enhance cloud condensation nuclei, producing more cloud droplets and making clouds more reflective.

The research aims to deliver independent risk analyses to inform policymakers about the potential environmental impacts of SRM.

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Scientists to model the impact of controlling Earth’s temperature by reflecting solar radiation

Photo, posted May 6, 2009, courtesy of Denys Zadorozhnyi via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Cooling cities

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As the climate warms, city dwellers tend to suffer from extreme heat more than people in rural areas because of the urban heat island effect. Extensive surfaces of man-made materials like concrete, asphalt, and brick absorb the sun’s energy and lead to temperatures well above those in the surrounding countryside.

Cities can take countermeasures that include creating urban green spaces full of plants that cool the surrounding air and the use of cool roofs that reflect the sun’s energy back into space.  Local governments in many cities provide incentives for planting more trees.  But more could be accomplished by encouraging the use of cool roofs.

The heat island effect has been well-known for a long time, but scientists are only recently learning what interventions are most effective. A recent study modeled two days of extreme heat in London in 2018 and compared the potential effects of cool roofs, green roofs, roof-top solar panels, and ground level vegetation. They found that cool roofs are the most effective way to lower temperatures and would have reduced London temperatures by 2 degrees on average and as much as 3.6 degrees in some places.

Cool roofs are created by swapping out dark, heat-absorbing roofing materials with reflective materials or simply by painting roofs white. Los Angeles is the first major city to require that all new residential construction includes a cool roof. 

Apart from the effectiveness of passive cooling techniques, using them also reduces the reliance upon air conditioning to protect people from heat.  Air conditioners themselves contribute considerable amounts of heat to urban environments.

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The surprisingly simple way cities could save people from extreme heat

Photo, posted February 21, 2024, courtesy of Warren LeMay via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Where not to plant trees

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Planting huge numbers of trees is often proposed as a way to reduce the severity of climate change.  Studies have looked at the potential for Earth‘s ecosystems to support large additional areas of forest and have found that it would be possible to have at least 25% more forested area than we do now.  This in turn could capture large amounts of carbon and substantially reduce the amount in the atmosphere.

A recent study by researchers at Clark University in Massachusetts and The Nature Conservancy mapped the climate impact of tree planting across the globe, identifying where it would be most and also least beneficial.  The study, published in Nature Communications, found that trees planted in arid, desert regions or in snowy places like the Arctic would, on balance, worsen warming rather than reduce it.

Trees take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which helps to keep warming in check.  But trees with dark, green leaves also absorb heat from sunlight.   Snow and desert sand, on the other hand, are light-colored and reflect more sunlight back into space.  For this reason, trees planted in snowy areas or in the desert will absorb more sunlight than their surroundings.  This can negate the climate benefits of soaking up carbon dioxide.

Previous studies only looked at how much carbon dioxide would be removed by planting trees in order to determine how much warming would be prevented.  The new study finds that it matters where the trees are planted.

Fortunately, the new study also shows that tree planting projects that are currently underway or that are in the pipeline are largely concentrated in regions where they will indeed help slow global warming.

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This Map Shows Where Planting Trees Would Make Climate Change Worse

Photo, posted April 5, 2022, courtesy of UC Davis Arboretum and Public Garden via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Large Mammals And Climate Change | Earth Wise         

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The natural world has an important part to play in mitigating the effects of climate change.  We mostly think about the role of plant life which absorbs carbon in trees, grasses, and other flora.  However, a new study published by Oxford University looks at the role of large wild animals in restoring ecosystems and reducing the effects of climate change.

According to the study, there are three important ways in which large animals such as elephants, rhinos, giraffes, whales, bison, and moose can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change:  carbon stocks, albedo, and fire regimes.

When large herbivores graze, they disperse seeds, clear vegetation, and fertilize soil.  All of these things build more complex and resilient ecosystems which helps to maintain and increase carbon stocks in the soil and in plant tissues thereby helping to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere.

Grazing large animals trample vegetation which opens up areas of dense vegetation to create open mixes of grass and shrubs and can reveal snow-covered ground in cold regions.  Such open habitats are lighter in color (higher in albedo) and reflect more solar radiation into the atmosphere, cooling the Earth’s surface rather than heating it up.

Large grazing animals can lessen wildfire risk by browsing on woody vegetation that would otherwise fuel the fires and also by creating paths that act as firebreaks.

In marine ecosystems, whales and other large animals fertilize phytoplankton, which capture some 37 billion tons of CO2 each year.

Overall, large animals are an important part of the natural world’s ability to reduce the effects of the changing climate by helping with localized adaptation to the changes taking place in ecosystems.

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Large mammals can help climate change mitigation and adaptation

Photo, posted August 20, 2017, courtesy of Jon Niola via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Earth Is Dimming | Earth Wise

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According to a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, warming ocean waters have caused a drop in the brightness of the earth.

Researchers measure the earth’s albedo by observing the light reflected from earth that illuminates the surface of the moon as well as with satellite measurements. The earth reflects about 30% of the sunlight that shines on it.  The data shows that the earth now reflects about half a percent less light than it did 20 years ago, with most of the drop occurring in the last three years.  That number had been fairly constant for most of the past 20 years.

According to the researchers at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, New York University, and a Spanish astrophysical agency, the apparent cause of the albedo drop has been a reduction of bright, reflective low-lying clouds over the eastern Pacific Ocean in most recent years.  That is the same area off the west coasts of North and South America where increases in sea surface temperature have been observed because of the reversal of a climate condition called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is likely a result of global climate change.

The dimming of the earth implies that more solar energy is being absorbed rather than reflected, which may contribute further to global warming.

These results are somewhat surprising.  Scientists had postulated that the warming of the earth could lead to more clouds and therefore a higher albedo – more reflection of the sun’s light.  If that were the case, it would help to moderate warming and balance the climate system.  These new results indicate that the opposite is true.

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The Earth Is Dimming Due To Climate Change

Photo, posted August 18, 2021, courtesy of Arek Socha/GPA Photo Archive via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

People And The Earth’s Increasing Heat | Earth Wise

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A new study by Princeton University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had found clear evidence that human activity is the primary cause of the significant increase in heat stored in our planet.  In fact, the study found that there is less than a 1% chance that natural variability is the sole cause of the increase.

The researchers looked at data from satellite observations to determine the amount of energy received by the earth and the amount reflected and emitted by the Earth.  In a balanced physical system, the amount of incoming energy should equal the amount of outgoing energy.  But the earth’s system is not balanced at this point.  More energy is coming in than going out, which is driving changes in the climate system.  There have been other studies looking at the human influence on the climate, but this new study is the first to examine a 20-year continuous satellite energy balance record to see if natural fluctuations in the climate system or human activities is the primary driver for the significant change in the planet’s energy balance.

The study examined 50 different climate models to look at this energy balance under scenarios where there was no human influence.  These include changes in the sun’s output, volcanic eruptions, variations in pollution aerosols, and more.

The results, to no great surprise, are that increasing greenhouse gases over the last twenty years is by far the most important driver for the energy imbalance.  This imbalance is what is driving rising temperatures, increasing sea levels, and causing other climate changes.

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Human activities responsible for rapid increase in Earth’s heat

Photo, posted May 6, 2021, courtesy of Marlis Borger via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Pandemic And Global Temperatures | Earth Wise

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The early months of the Covid-19 pandemic last year saw dramatic reductions in travel and many forms of commerce.  With much of human activity greatly curtailed, greenhouse gas emissions were greatly reduced.   And yet, all of that did not slow down global warming: 2020 ended up tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record and atmospheric greenhouse gas levels reached a new high.

In order to understand how this came about, it is necessary to understand the complex climate influences of different types of emissions from power plants, motor vehicles, industrial facilities, and other sources.  The fact is that some types of pollution actually have a cooling effect rather than contributing to global warming.

Tiny industrial pollution particles called aerosols actually make clouds brighter, causing them to reflect away more solar heat from the surface of the planet.   During the drastic shutdown last year, the biggest emissions decline was from the most polluting industries.  The reduction of aerosols had immediate, short-term effects on temperatures.  These types of pollutants are very bad for human health, but when they are present, they do have the effect of reducing temperatures.

It is important to keep in mind that carbon dioxide spreads through the Earth’s atmosphere and stays there for a century or more, trapping heat on a global scale.  Industrial aerosols stay relatively concentrated in the region where they are emitted and are often removed by rain and winds within a few weeks.  So, their cooling effect doesn’t spread very far or last very long.

Overall, the initial pandemic slowdown probably didn’t have any real long-term impact on the climate but over the short term, the effects were not as simple as one might expect.

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Covid-19 Cut Gases That Warm the Globe But a Drop in Other Pollution Boosted Regional Temperatures

Photo, posted July 7, 2020, courtesy of Joey Zanotti via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Better Paint For Cooler Buildings | Earth Wise

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A research team led by scientists at UCLA have developed a super-white paint that reflects as much as 98% of incoming heat from the sun.  Such paint, if used on rooftops and other parts of buildings, could have a major impact on reducing the costs of keeping buildings cool.

Passive daytime radiative cooling is a well-known method to keep buildings cooler.  By having building surfaces reflect sunlight and radiate heat into space, building temperatures can be significantly lowered.  This in turn cuts down on air conditioner use and associated carbon emissions.

A roof painted white will result in lower indoor temperatures than a darker roof.  But a white roof will do even more:  it can reject heat at infrared wavelengths that are invisible to our eyes.  This results in even more radiative cooling.

The best performing white paints currently available reflect about 85% of incoming solar radiation.  The rest is absorbed by materials in the paint.  The new research has identified simple modifications in paint ingredients that lead to a major increase in reflectivity.

Current reflective white paints use titanium dioxide, which absorbs UV radiation and therefore heats up under sunlight.  The researchers studied replacing it with other substances such as barite – an artist’s pigment – or with powdered Teflon, both of which allow the paint to reflect more of the sun’s radiation. 

Many cities are encouraging the use of cool-roof technologies on new buildings.  Using the most reflective coatings possible on rooftops, if applied on a sufficiently large scale, could have a real impact on climate change as well as saving significant amounts of energy used for running air conditioners in buildings.

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UCLA-led Team Develops Ways to Keep Buildings Cool with Improved Super White Paints

Photo, posted August 15, 2012, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A See-Through Heat Shield

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It is estimated that air conditioners use about 6% of all the electricity produced in the United States for an annual cost of $29 billion.  With rising temperatures, this expense is only going to get larger.

A significant part of the heat load in buildings arises from heat coming through windows.  It turns out that for every square meter of window, about 500 watts of heat energy can be brought in by sunlight, equivalent to 5 old-fashioned light bulbs.

Researchers at MIT and the University of Hong Kong have developed a heat-rejecting film that can applied to a building’s windows that will reflect 70% of the sun’s incoming heat.  The film is similar to transparent plastic wrap. It remains highly transparent at temperatures below 89 degrees Fahrenheit.  Above that temperature, tiny microparticles embedded in the film shrink and the film becomes more translucent or frosted, still letting in a good amount of light, but rejecting a lot of heat.

There are already so-called smart windows on the market, similar to the electrochromic mirrors in cars that darken to prevent trailing headlights from blinding drivers.  But that technology is not very effective in rejecting heat and it requires power to operate, which means you would have to pay to turn windows opaque.

Tests of the new film demonstrated its ability to reject heat and lower temperatures.  The researchers estimate that if every exterior-facing window in a building were covered in the heat-rejecting film, the building’s air conditioning and energy costs could drop by 10%.  Saving ten percent of tens of billions of dollars is no minor matter.

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See-through film rejects 70 percent of incoming solar heat

Photo courtesy of MIT researchers/MIT. 

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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