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Saving Money By Predicting The Wind | Earth Wise

July 1, 2022 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Managing an electrical grid that utilizes significant amounts of intermittent generation sources – solar and wind power – brings with it some unique challenges. There are abundant wind resources in this country and more and utilities are taking advantage of these resources. But there are times when there is more wind, times when there is less wind, and times when there is no wind at all. Utilities need accurate wind forecasts to determine when they need to generate or purchase energy from alternative sources.

Poor wind forecasts can cost utilities a lot of money. If there is overprediction – that is, when there is less wind than predicted – utilities have to purchase energy off the spot market at higher prices. If there is underprediction – more wind than predicted – utilities may needlessly burn fossil fuels and waste money that way.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration produces wind forecasts using its High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model, which provides hourly updated forecasts for every part of the United States looking forward up to 48 hours. The model generates predictions of wind speed and direction at multiple levels of the atmosphere, information that utilities can use to predict the output of their wind turbines.

A new study by economists and scientists from Colorado State University and NOAA estimated the financial impact of the HRRR model on wind farm production. The research team calculated that increasingly accurate weather forecasts over the last decade have saved consumers over $150 million a year. Estimates are that if the newest model was in use in previous years, the savings would have been over $300 million a year.

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NOAA wind forecasts result in $150 million in energy savings every year

Photo, posted May 2, 2022, courtesy of California Energy Commission via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Coastlines and Climate Change | Earth Wise

August 16, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Climate change poses a fundamental threat to life on earth and has already left observable effects on the planet. For example, glaciers have shrunk, oceans have warmed, heatwaves have become more intense, and plant and animal ranges have shifted.

As a result of the changing climate, coastal communities around the world are confronting the increasing threats posed by a combination of extreme storms and the predicted acceleration of sea level rise.

Scientists from the University of Plymouth in England have developed a simple algorithm-based model to predict how coastlines could be affected by climate change. This model allows coastal communities to identify the actions they need to take in order to adapt to their changing environment.

The Forecasting Coastal Evolution (or ForCE) model has the potential to be a game-changer because it allows adaptations in the shoreline to be predicted over timescales of anything from days to decades. As a result, the model is capable of predicting both the short-term impact of extreme storms as well as predicting the longer-term impact of rising seas.

The ForCE model relies on past and present beach measurements and data showing the physical properties of the coast. It also considers other key factors like tidal, surge, and global sea-level rise data to assess how beaches might be impacted by climate change. Beach sediments form the frontline defense against coastal erosion and flooding, and are key in preventing damage to valuable coastal infrastructure.

According to the study, which was recently published in the journal Coastal Evolution, the ForCE model predictions have shown to be more than 80% accurate in current tests in South West England.

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New model accurately predicts how coasts will be impacted by storms and sea-level rise

Photo, posted April 17, 2016, courtesy of Nicolas Henderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Path To Net Zero | Earth Wise

March 8, 2021 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Reaching net zero emissions is both feasible and affordable, according to researchers at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the University of San Francisco, and consulting firm Evolved Energy Research. The researchers created a detailed model of the entire U.S. energy and industrial system to produce the first detailed, peer-reviewed study of how to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

The study analyzed multiple feasible technology pathways based on very different assumptions of remaining fossil fuel use, land use, consumer adoption, nuclear energy, and biofuel use. What they had in common was increasing energy efficiency, transitioning to electric technologies, utilizing clean electricity (especially wind and solar power), and deploying small amounts of carbon capture technology.

The decarbonization of the U.S. energy system is an infrastructure transformation. Getting to net zero by 2050 means adding many gigawatts of wind and solar power plants, new transmission lines, a fleet of electric cars and light trucks, millions of heat pumps to replace conventional furnaces and water heaters, and more energy-efficient buildings.

The various pathways studied have net costs between 0.2% and 1.2% of GDP, which is as little as $1 per person per day. The cost variations come from various tradeoffs such as the amount of land given to solar and wind farms as well as the amount of new transmission infrastructure required.

A key result of the study is that the actions required over the next 10 years are similar among all the pathways. We need to increase the use of renewable energy and make sure that all new infrastructure, such as cars and buildings are low carbon.

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Getting to Net Zero – and Even Net Negative – is Surprisingly Feasible, and Affordable

Photo, posted July 12, 2010, courtesy of Tom Shockey via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Ocean Currents And Climate Change | Earth Wise

September 22, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Oceans cover more than 70% of the earth and absorb 94% of incoming solar radiation. As a result, oceans play a major role in the climate system. With their massive size and capacity to store heat, oceans help keep temperature fluctuations in check. But oceans also play a more active role. Ocean currents are responsible for moving vast amounts of heat around the planet.

According to a paper recently published in the journal Nature Communications, the world’s strongest ocean currents will experience more intense marine heatwaves than the global average in the coming decades. These strong ocean currents play key roles in fisheries and ocean ecosystems.

Sections of the Gulf Stream near the United States, the Kuroshio Current near Japan, the East Australian Current near Australia, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current will all see more intense marine heatwaves over the next 30 years.

Scientists from the University of Tasmania and CSIRO in Australia relied on high-resolution ocean modeling to carry out their research. They confirmed the model’s accuracy by comparing outputs with observations from 1982-2018. They then used the same model to project how marine heatwaves would alter with climate change out to 2050.

The model projects, for example, that intense marine heatwaves are more likely to form well off the coast of Tasmania, while more intense marine heatwaves along the Gulf Stream start to appear more frequently close to the shore from Virginia to New Brunswick, Canada.

Marine heatwaves are on the rise globally, but knowing where they will occur and how much hotter they will be will help policymakers, ecologists, and fisheries experts in their regional decision-making.

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Where marine heatwaves will intensify fastest: New analysis

Photo, posted April 17, 2016, courtesy of Nicolas Henderson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Hacking Photosynthesis | Earth Wise

September 14, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

A team led by the University of Illinois has been pursuing a project called Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency or RIPE, which has the aim of improving photosynthesis in order to provide farmers with higher-yielding crops in an increasingly challenging climate. Photosynthesis is the natural, sunlight-powered process that plants use to convert carbon dioxide into sugars that fuel growth, development, and for us, crop yield.

If we think of photosynthesis as a factory line composed of multiple machines, the growth of plants is limited by the slowest machines in the line. The RIPE project has identified some steps in photosynthesis that are slower than others and are attempting to enable plants to build more machines to speed up those slower steps.

The researchers modeled a total of 170 steps in the process of photosynthesis to identify how plants could manufacture sugars more efficiently. In the study, the team increased crop growth by 27% by resolving two constraints: one in the first part of photosynthesis where plants turn light energy into chemical energy and one in the second part when carbon dioxide is turned into sugars.

The researchers effectively hacked photosynthesis by adding a more efficient transport protein from algae to enhance the energy conversion process.

In the greenhouse, these changes improved crop productivity by 52%, but in field trials, which are a more important test, these photosynthetic hacks boosted crop production by 27%.

Ultimately, the team hopes to translate these discoveries to a series of staple food crops, such as cassava, cowpea, corn, soybean and rice, which are needed to feed the world’s growing population this century.

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Photosynthetic hacks can boost crop yield, conserve water

Photo, posted June 14, 2017, courtesy of Alex Holyoake via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Recycling Tough Plastics | Earth Wise

September 3, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Thermoset plastics are ones that contain polymers that cross-link together during the curing process to form an irreversible chemical bond. This improves the material’s mechanical properties, provides chemical resistance, heat resistance, and structural integrity. Thermosets include epoxies, polyurethanes, and rubber used for tires. The big problem with thermosets is that they cannot be easily recycled or broken down after use.

Seventy-five percent of all plastics are thermoplastics, which can be recycled by heating them until they become liquid and can then be remolded. Thermoset plastics, on the other hand, have such strong chemical bonds that they simply will not melt. They will typically burn before they can be remolded.

Chemists at MIT have recently developed a way to modify thermoset plastics with a chemical linker that makes them much easier to break down, but still retain the mechanical properties that make them so useful.

In a study published in Nature, the researchers produced a degradable version of a thermoset plastic called pDCPD. They then broke the plastic down into a powder and were able to use the powder to create more pDCPD. The paper also proposed a theoretical model that suggests that their approach could be used for a wide range of other plastics and polymers, including rubber.

By adding a chemical called a silyl ether monomer to the liquid precursors that from pDCPD plastic, they found that the resultant material retained its mechanical strength but can be broken down into a soluble powder upon exposure to fluoride ions.

Using this approach with other thermoset materials, the researchers believe it will be possible to create recyclable versions of many of the toughest plastic materials.

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Chemists make tough plastics recyclable

Photo, posted September 1, 2019, courtesy of Luke McKernan via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Tracking Locust Swarms | Earth Wise

June 12, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Plagues of locusts have been reported since the times of the Egyptian pharaohs. In recent history, there have been desert locust plagues during multiple decades of the 20th century. Since January, a very large population of locusts gathered in Kenya and has destroyed over 2,000 square miles of pasture and crop land. Swarms have since reached portions of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, and South Sudan. Apart from East Africa, there are locust swarms in Yemen and other Middle East countries and in Pakistan as well. The current situation continues to represent an unprecedented threat to food security and livelihoods in East Africa. Locust swarms can range in size from less than half a square mile to hundreds of square miles, each containing 20 to 40 million locusts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses a powerful air quality model to track the movement and deposition of pollution from wildfires, volcanoes and industrial accidents. Called the HYSPLIT dispersion model, it has now been refined for the purpose of tracking swarms of locusts.

Because desert locusts are passive fliers that drift with the wind, the model’s high-quality data on wind speed and direction can lead to accurate predictions of where the locusts will go and when.

NOAA is working with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization – the FAO. The new web application based on HYSPLIT is being used by the FAO to issue forecasts and warnings to affected countries about forthcoming waves of locust swarms. Such forecasts enable local officials to conduct aerial spraying to reduce the impact of desert locusts which can destroy grains, grasses and other greens that are life-sustaining foods for entire regions.

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NOAA teams with United Nations to create locust-tracking application

Photo, posted November 20, 2004, courtesy of Niv Singer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Benefits Of A Zero-Emissions Boston | Earth Wise

May 25, 2020 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

Many countries, states, and cities around the world have set goals to become carbon neutral, typically by the year 2050. These goals are based on the desire to mitigate the effects of climate change that are steadily increasing as a result of the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But reducing emissions is not just a way to combat climate change, it can also be a major contributor to improved public health.

The City of Boston has set a goal to become carbon neutral by 2050. A new study by the School of Public Health at Boston University published in the journal Environmental Research Letters looked at the consequences of eliminating fossil fuel emissions in the greater Boston area.

According to their modeling, eliminating emissions would save 288 lives a year by reducing fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. The resulting decrease in medical costs and lost and reduced work could save $1.7 billion a year in Suffolk County and $2.4 billion a year for the entire 75-square-mile zone modeled in the study.

The study looked at the amounts of two air pollutants known to harm human health: PM2.5 (particulates with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns) and ozone. They compared the current levels of these pollutants to what would be present when contributions from motor vehicles, generators, rail, industry, oil- and gas-burning, shipping and boating, and residential wood fires were eliminated.

The study focused on the City of Boston’s climate action plan, but actions taken by Boston will not take place in a vacuum. Many cities across the region are taking similar actions. The overall results will come from the collective actions across New England.

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A Zero-Emissions Boston Could Save 288 Lives and $2.4 Billion Annually

Photo, posted August 31, 2019, courtesy of Eric Kilby via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Food Waste And Access To Groceries | Earth Wise

March 19, 2020 By EarthWise 1 Comment

One-third of all food produced is wasted, which turns out to be a major contributor to carbon emissions. Most of the carbon emissions associated with food waste are related to the production of the food. Reducing waste would trickle through the supply chain over time and ultimately less food would be produced.

A study at Cornell’s SC Johnson College of Business looked at a particular strategy for reducing food waste’s environmental impact: opening more grocery stores.

It turns out that the more stores there are, the lower food waste will be. Cornell Professor Elena Belavina created a model that incorporates data from the grocery industry, the U.S. Census Bureau, and other academic studies.

When applied to Chicago, which is typical of many American cities, the model predicts that by adding just three or four markets within four-square-mile area, food waste would be reduced by 6 to 9 percent. This would achieve an emissions reduction comparable to converting more than 20,000 cars from fossil fuels to electric power. According to the model, not only would food waste be reduced, but so would grocery bills. By trimming food waste and travel costs, consumers would spend up to 4% less.

Most big cities are well below their ideal density of grocery stores that would minimize food waste. When consumers can purchase perishable goods nearby, they shop more often but buy less each time. There is less food sitting at home, so there is a much lower likelihood that food will spoil.

New York City, which has an abundance of produce stands and neighborhood markets, comes close to having the ideal density of markets. Basically, the way to reduce food waste is to bring less groceries home.

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Better access to groceries could reduce food waste, emissions

Photo, posted March 22, 2009, courtesy of Nick Saltmarsh via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Drugs In The Water

April 15, 2019 By EarthWise Leave a Comment

According to a new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, concentrations of pharmaceuticals in rivers and lakes have dramatically increased across the globe over the past 20 years.

Traces of medicines get passed into waterways through the excretion of active drugs in human waste, the disposal of unused medicines down drains, and runoff from livestock farms.

The study looked in detail at two specific drugs: carbamazepine, an anti-epileptic drug, and ciprofloxacin, an antibiotic. The study found that the risk of ecological damage from the residue from these two drugs was 10 to 20 times higher in 2015 than in 1995.

Chronic exposure to carbamazepine, for example, has been shown to alter feeding behavior and reduce egg viability in zebrafish, as well as reduce reproductive success in crustaceans. Antibiotics can alter major nutrient cycles and decrease the effectiveness of bacteria-based wastewater treatment systems.

The study, led by researchers from the Netherlands, created a new model estimating concentrations of the two drugs over a 20-year period in 449 aquatic systems around the globe. The model predicts a relatively high environmental risk in densely populated and dry areas such as the Middle East.

When the researchers compared the model’s results to samples from four river systems in various locations, they found that the actual drug concentrations were even higher than model results, in some cases by a factor of 10 to 100.

The new model should act as a guide for a more thorough investigation into pharmaceutical residues in waterways, which pose significant environmental risks all over the world.

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