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Record high emissions

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The world is adding solar and wind power to the grid.   We are driving more and more electric cars.  Countries are pledging to cut back fossil fuel use.  There are highly visible international conferences on the climate crisis.   But despite all of these things, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have risen once again in 2023, reaching all-time record high levels of more than 40 billion tons, about 1.1% more than the previous year.

In some places, including Europe and the U.S., fossil fuel CO2 emissions are falling, but globally, they are still rising.  Emissions continued to increase in India and China.  Global action to cut fossil fuel use is not happening fast enough to prevent the increasingly dangerous effects of climate change.

Global CO2 emissions include both the contributions of fossil fuel use and the effects of land use change.  Adding the two together, in 2023 the total was about 45 billion tons, basically unchanged from last year. 

Adding insult to injury are the emissions from fires.  The extreme wildfire seasons in Canada, Australia, and other places have contributed CO2 emissions much larger than historical averages.

About half of all the carbon dioxide emitted on Earth is absorbed by carbon sinks on land and the oceans.  The other half remains in the atmosphere, where levels are now averaging 419 parts per million, 51% above pre-industrial levels.

Current efforts are simply not profound enough or widespread enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory.  Some climate policies in some places are proving effective, but much more needs to be done.

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Fossil CO2 emissions at record high in 2023

Photo, posted December 18, 2013, courtesy of Steve Nelson via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Salt Marshes And Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Salt marshes are coastal wetlands that are flooded and drained by salt water brought in and out by the tides. These low-lying wetlands are also sometimes called tidal marshes because they occur in the zone between low and high tides. These wetlands are some of the most biologically productive ecosystems on Earth.

Cape Cod’s beautiful salt marshes are as important as they are iconic.  They act as carbon sinks, protect coastal development from storm surge, play an outsized role in nitrogen cycling, and provide critical habitats for many fish, shellfish, and coastal birds.

According to scientists from the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, more than 90% of salt marshes around the world are likely to be underwater by the end of the century. 

Since 1971, scientists from the Marine Biological Laboratory have mapped vegetative cover in Great Sippewissett Marsh in Falmouth, Massachusetts, to examine whether increased nitrogen in the environment would impact species of marsh grass.  Because of the length of the study, the researchers were also able to investigate the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem, especially those driven by accelerating sea level rise. 

The research team found that increased nitrogen favored higher levels of vegetation and accretion of the marsh surface.  However, the researchers found that salt marshes will not be able to outpace the submergence from global sea level rise – no matter how much nitrogen is applied.

Sea level rise is the biggest threat to salt marshes around the world.  Mitigating some of these projected losses is critical in order for salt marshes to continue to provide their important ecosystem services for people and the planet.  

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Most of the World’s Salt Marshes Could Succumb to Sea Level Rise by Turn of Century

Photo, posted September 27, 2011, courtesy of Chris M Morris via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio

Carbon Dioxide Levels Higher Again | Earth Wise

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that carbon dioxide levels measured in May at the Mauna Loa Observatory reached a value of 421 parts per million.  This is 50% greater than pre-industrial levels and is in a range not seen on earth for millions of years.

Before the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels fairly steadily measured around 280 parts per million, pretty much for all 6,000 years of human civilization.  Since the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century, humans have generated an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 pollution, much of which will continue to warm the atmosphere for thousands of years.

The present levels of carbon dioxide are comparable to those of an era known as the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, which took place over 4 million years ago. 

The bulk of the human-generated carbon dioxide comes from burning fossil fuels for transportation and electrical generation, from cement and steel manufacturing, and from the depletion of natural carbon sinks caused by deforestation, agriculture, and other human impacts on the natural environment.

Humans are altering the climate in ways that are dramatically affecting the economy, infrastructure, and ecosystems across the planet.  By trapping heat that would otherwise escape into space, greenhouse gases are causing the atmosphere to warm steadily, leading to increasingly erratic weather episodes ranging from extreme heat, droughts, and wildfires, to heavier precipitation, flooding, and tropical storm activity.

The relentless increase of carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa is a sober reminder that we need to take serious steps to try to mitigate the effects of climate change.

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Carbon dioxide now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels

Photo, posted December 20, 2016, courtesy of Kevin Casey Fleming via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Planting Trees and Climate Change | Earth Wise

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Forests are among the most important natural carbon sinks.  Trees remove carbon from the air and store it in their trunks, branches, and leaves, and transfer part of it into the soil.  But in some regions, these natural carbon sinks are starting to weaken due to deforestation, forest degradation, and the impacts of climate change.  This problem has led some climate mitigation projects to focus on increasing the overall number of trees on the planet. 

But, according to a paper recently published in the journal Science, “we can’t plant our way out of climate change.”  That’s the simple message from Restoration Ecologist Karen Holl and University of São Paulo Professor Pedro Brancalion to anyone who thinks planting one trillion trees will reverse the effects of climate change.  They say planting more trees is only one piece of the puzzle.  Any initiatives like 1t.org or the Trillion Tree Campaign must be done carefully and be accompanied by commitments to long-term management.

Tree plantings can provide many environmental benefits, including improving water quality, biodiversity, and increasing shade.  But trees can sometimes have undesirable impacts, such as harming native species and ecosystems or reducing water availability, depending on where and how the trees are planted.

The authors suggest four principles that should guide forest enhancement initiatives: reduce forest clearing and degradation, balance ecological and social goals, view tree plantings as one part of a multifaceted solution, and plan, coordinate and monitor the work. 

While tree plantings can clearly be part of the solution, slowing the pace of climate change requires a comprehensive approach that must start with burning less fossil fuels.

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Challenges in tree-planting programs

Planting trees is no panacea for climate change

Photo, posted December 1, 2019, courtesy of Akuppa John Wigham via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

The Danger Of Relying On Future Technology | Earth Wise

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The need to mitigate the effects of climate change has been a global focus for about 40 years and has seen ever-changing views on what actions are needed.  The historical record has been defined by over-reliance on promises of new technology to solve climate change.  Looking to future technology to save the environment has been an excuse to postpone necessary action and avoid inconvenient changes in how we do things.

A study at Lancaster University in the UK published in Nature Climate Change exposes how such promises have raised expectations of more effective policy options becoming available in the future and have enabled the continued politics of inadequate action and skirting around the truth.

Even after four decades, rather than acting forcefully to reduce emissions, we are hoping that nuclear fusion power, giant carbon sucking machines, ice-restoration using vast numbers of wind-powered pumps, and spraying particulates into the atmosphere can address the climate crisis rather than dramatic changes in fossil fuel use.

The researchers mapped the history of climate targets in five phases.  Early on, the focus was on improved energy efficiency, large-scale enhancement of carbon sinks, and nuclear power.  Next, the focus was on cutting emissions with efficiency, fuel switching, and carbon capture and storage.  After that, bioenergy was the major focus.  Then, global carbon budgeting and potential negative emission technologies.  Currently, the focus is on temperature outcomes rather than emission targets.

Each novel promise competes with existing ideas and downplays any sense of urgency.   The researchers conclude that putting our hopes on yet more new technologies is unwise.  The time to act is now.

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Why relying on new technology won’t save the planet

Photo, posted February 13, 2019, courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Tropical Forests As Carbon Sinks | Earth Wise

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Tropical forests are an important part of the global carbon cycle because they take up and store large amounts of carbon dioxide.  Because of this, deforestation in the Amazon and other tropical forests is a major contributor to the growing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Therefore, climate models need to accurately take into account the ability of tropical forests to sequester carbon.  It turns out that this is not such a simple matter.  A new study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis sought to determine how much detail about tropical forests is needed in order to make valid assumptions about the strength of forest carbon sinks.

They looked at the role of both biotic factors – differences between plant species that are responsible for capturing more or less carbon from the atmosphere – and abiotic factors – local environmental factors like soil properties that also influence carbon sink strength.

It is generally assumed that more diverse forest communities capture available resources more efficiently as a result of complementary characteristics and preferences of certain species to specific conditions.  Factors like soil texture and chemistry are also important.  In general, the results show that abiotic and biotic factors interact with one another to determine how much carbon can be stored by the ecosystem.

Traditional projections of the role of tropical forests in storing carbon mostly rely on remote sensing techniques that integrate over large spatial areas.  The new study shows that there can be large differences in the carbon storing ability of tropical forests and that more detailed models are needed to produce more accurate projections.

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Shedding light on how much carbon tropical forests can absorb

Photo, posted July 17, 2014, courtesy of Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

A Powerful Case For Protecting Whales

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Efforts to mitigate climate change typically face two major challenges.  One is to find effective ways to reduce the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The other is how to raise enough money to implement climate mitigation strategies. 

Many proposed solutions to climate change, like carbon capture and storage, are complex, expensive, and in some cases, untested.  What if there was a low-tech solution that was effective and economical?

Well, it turns out there is one, and it comes from a surprisingly simple, “no-tech” strategy to capture CO2: increase global whale populations. 

According to a recent analysis by economists with the International Monetary Fund, whales help fight climate change by sequestering CO2 in the ocean. 

Whales sequester carbon in a few ways.  They hoard it in their fat and protein-rich bodies, stockpiling tons of carbon apiece.  When whales die, they turn into literal carbon sinks on the ocean floor.  While alive, whales dive to feed on tiny marine organisms like krill and plankton before surfacing to breathe and excrete. Those latter activities release an enormous plume of nutrients, including nitrogen, iron, and phosphorous, into the water.  These so-called “poo-namis” stimulate the growth of phytoplankton, microscopic marine algae that pull CO2 out of the air and return oxygen to the air via photosynthesis.  Phytoplankton are responsible for every other breath we take, contributing at least 50% of all oxygen to the atmosphere and capturing approximately 40% of all CO2 produced. 

With other economic benefits like ecotourism factored in, economists estimate that each whale is worth $2 million over its lifetime, making the entire global population possibly a one trillion dollar asset to humanity.

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How much is a whale worth?

Photo, posted June 12, 2013, courtesy of Gregory Smith via Flickr.

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Natural Climate Solutions Are Not Enough

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A new policy perspective published in Science by researchers at seven prestigious institutions looked at the role of natural science solutions in stabilizing the Earth’s climate for people and ecosystems.   While they asserted that it is imperative to ramp up natural climate solutions, they also concluded that natural solutions alone will not be sufficient.

Natural science solutions include such things as enhancing carbon sinks from forests, agriculture and other lands.  Doing these things are very beneficial in their own right as they lead to improved forests, croplands, grazing lands, and wetlands.

However, these things will not be enough to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and must be combined with rapid efforts to decrease emissions from the energy and industrial sectors.  Among their various findings, the researchers warn that a ten-year delay in emissions reductions from these sectors could completely negate any potential benefits of natural climate solutions.

As has become increasingly clear, there is not an either-or situation with regard to the actions that need to be taken with respect to climate change.

Maximizing natural climate solutions and reducing emissions from the energy and industrial sectors will provide broad benefits beyond climate change mitigation.  Doing these things will improve forests and habitats, reduce the risk of wildfires, and decrease air and water pollution thereby improving human health and well-being.

Of course, to reduce cumulative emissions and put a cap on the warming of the planet, there will need to be policy mechanisms and incentives in place that support both natural climate solutions and increasing mitigation efforts across the energy and industrial sectors.

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Natural Climate Solutions Are Not Enough

Photo, posted February 11, 2012, courtesy of Joao Andre O. Dias via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

Forecasting A Bad Year For Carbon

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Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years, and they continue to grow.  The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service – known as the Met Office – issues annual predictions of global CO2 levels based in part on readings taken at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii.  Their forecast for this year is that there will be one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in the 62 years of measurements at Mauna Loa.

Since 1958, there has been a 30% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  This has been caused by emissions from fossil fuels, deforestation and cement production.  The increase would actually have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks in the form of various ecosystems that soak up some of the excess CO2.

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon dioxide by land ecosystems.  In years with a warmer tropical Pacific – such as El Niño years – many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and to absorb CO2 .  The opposite happens when the Pacific is cool, as was the case last year.

The Met Office predicts that the contribution of natural carbon sinks will be relatively weak, so the impact of human-caused emissions will be larger than last year.  The predicted rise in atmospheric CO2 is 2.75 parts-per-million, which is among the highest rises on record.  The forecast for the average carbon dioxide concentration is 411 ppm, with peak monthly averages reaching almost 415 ppm.  With global emissions not really declining, the numbers just get higher and higher.

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Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019

Photo, posted March 18, 2006, courtesy of Darin Marshall via Flickr.

Earth Wise is a production of WAMC Northeast Public Radio.

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